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Price analysis 9/29: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, DOGE, SOL, TON, DOT, MATIC
Crypto bulls are attempting a comeback. Here are the altcoins that traders are keeping an eye on.
Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to trade…
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Crypto bulls are attempting a comeback. Here are the altcoins that traders are keeping an eye on.
Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to trade above $27,000 which is a positive sign. In the past few days, Bitcoin’s price held up above $26,000 in adverse conditions when the United States dollar index (DXY) was rising sharply and the S&P 500 index (SPX) was plunging. This suggests that selling dries up at lower levels.
The decision by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission to delay the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETFs) ahead of schedule also did not dent prices. This indicates that the market participants are taking a longer-term view on Bitcoin. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart believes that an early decision was taken by the regulator as there is a risk of a U.S. government shutdown on Oct. 1.
Bitcoin’s resilience over the past few days seems to have boosted trader’s sentiment. That helped start a recovery in most major altcoins, which are trying to climb above their respective resistance levels.
Could Bitcoin extend its up-move in the near term and will that start a revival in the crypto space? Let’s study the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin price analysis
After struggling for several days, the bulls finally propelled Bitcoin above the moving averages on Sep. 28. The bulls are currently trying to thwart attempts by the bears to yank the price back below the 20-day exponential moving average ($26,534).
The moving averages are on the verge of a bullish crossover and the relative strength index (RSI) is in the positive territory, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the upside. There is a minor resistance at $27,500 but it is likely to be crossed.
The BTC/USDT pair could then rally to the overhead resistance at $28,143. This level is again likely to witness a tough battle between the bulls and the bears.
On the downside, the $26,000 level is an important level to watch out for. If this level gives way, the advantage will tilt in favor of the bears. The pair may then nosedive to the formidable support at $24,800.
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) climbed and closed above the 20-day EMA ($1,622) on Sep. 28, indicating that the selling pressure is reducing. The buyers continued their purchase and cleared the hurdle at the 50-day simple moving average ($1,660) on Sep. 29.
The bulls will try to drive the price to the overhead resistance of $1,746. This is an important level to keep an eye on because if buyers overcome this barrier, the ETH/USDT pair will complete a double bottom pattern. This reversal setup has a target objective of $1,961.
On the contrary, if the price turns down from $1,746, it will indicate that the bears remain sellers on rallies. The price could then dip to the 20-day EMA. If the price rebounds off this support, it will enhance the prospects of a rally above $1,746. The bears will be back in the game if they drag the price back below the 20-day EMA.
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) has been trading inside the $220 to $203 range for the past few days. The bulls are trying to nudge the price to the overhead resistance at $220.
The 20-day EMA ($213) is flat but the RSI has risen into positive territory, indicating that the momentum is turning in favor of the bulls. If the $220 resistance is surmounted, the BNB/USDT pair could surge to $235.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down sharply from $220, it will indicate that the range-bound action may continue for a while longer. The next leg of the downtrend will begin after bears tug the price below $203.
XRP price analysis
Buyers pushed XRP (XRP) above the 20-day EMA ($0.50) on Sep. 28 and followed that up with a move above the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle pattern on Sep. 29.
If the price sustains above the triangle, it will signal that the uncertainty has resolved in favor of the buyers. The XRP/USDT pair could then rally to the overhead resistance at $0.56. This is an important resistance to watch out for because a break above it will clear the path for a potential rally to the pattern target of $0.64.
Contrarily, if the price turns down and re-enters the triangle, it will indicate that markets have rejected the higher levels. The bears will then try to gain the edge by pulling the price below the uptrend line of the triangle.
Cardano price analysis
The bulls are trying to sustain Cardano (ADA) above the 20-day EMA ($0.25) on Sep. 29, which shows that the bears are losing their grip.
A break and close above the downtrend line will invalidate the bearish descending triangle pattern. Generally, the failure of a bearish pattern results in a sharp up-move as the sellers rush to exit their shorts and the bulls waiting on the sidelines start buying. That could propel the ADA/USDT pair to $0.29 and subsequently to $0.32.
Time is running out for the bears. If they want to regain control, they will have to defend the downtrend line and pull the price below $0.24. The next support on the downside is at $0.22.
Dogecoin price analysis
Dogecoin’s (DOGE) range has shrunk in the past few days, increasing the prospect of a range expansion within the next few days.
The 20-day EMA ($0.06) is flattening out and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. If buyers kick the price above the 20-day EMA with force, it will signal the start of a recovery. The DOGE/USDT pair could first rise to $0.07 and thereafter to $0.08.
If bears want to prevent the upside, they will have to quickly drag the price below $0.06. If they do that, the pair may plunge to the next critical support at $0.055.
Solana price analysis
Solana (SOL) remains stuck inside the large range between $27.12 and $14 for the past several days. Trading inside a range can be random and volatile as bulls typically buy at the support and sell near the resistance.
The bulls are trying to start a relief rally, which has reached the 50-day SMA ($20.44). This is an important level to watch out for because a break above it will suggest that the bulls are back in the game. The SOL/USDT pair could then rise to $22.30.
Instead, if the price turns down from the 50-day SMA, it will indicate that the bears are active at higher levels. Sellers will have to tug the price below $18.50 to open the doors for a retest of $17.33.
Related: Why is Ether (ETH) price up today?
Toncoin price analysis
Toncoin (TON) rebounded off the 20-day EMA ($2.13) on Sep. 27, indicating that the sentiment remains positive and traders are buying on dips.
The long wick on the Sep. 27 and 28 candlestick shows that the bears are selling at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $2.28. However, a positive sign in favor of the bulls is that they have not allowed the price to slip below the 20-day EMA.
Buyers will have to shove the price above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $2.40 to open the doors for a retest of the stiff overhead resistance at $2.59. This positive view will invalidate if the price turns down and plummets below $2.07.
Polkadot price analysis
The failure of the bears to sink Polkadot (DOT) below the $3.91 support indicates that the range-bound action remains intact.
Buyers will try to drive the price above the 20-day EMA ($4.10) and challenge the overhead resistance at the 50-day SMA ($4.32). If this level is cleared, the DOT/USDT pair could surge to the downtrend line. The bulls will have to overcome this barrier to signal a potential trend change.
The important support to watch on the downside is $3.91. A break below this level will suggest the resumption of the downtrend toward $3.58.
Polygon price analysis
Polygon (MATIC) turned up from $0.50 on Sep. 28 indicating solid buying at lower levels. The price has reached the 20-day EMA ($0.52), which is an important level to keep an eye on.
The positive divergence on the RSI indicates that the selling pressure is reducing. That enhances the prospects of a break above the moving averages. The MATIC/USDT pair could then retest the overhead resistance at $0.60. The bears are expected to protect this level with vigor.
If bears want to maintain their control, they will have to yank the price below the strong support at $0.49. If this support gives way, the pair may drop to $0.45.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
sp 500 cryptocurrency bitcoin crypto btc xrp bnb etf crypto
Uncategorized
February Employment Situation
By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…
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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert
The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.
Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.
Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.
The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.
The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.
Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.
As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.
Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.
The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.
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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes
Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.
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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.
The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.
From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250
Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.
1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.
2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.
Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.
3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too
Total employment data
4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels.
From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.
Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:
In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:
- Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
- High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
- Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
- Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.
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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month
Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month
Last month we though that the January…
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Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush.
What happened? Let's take a closer look.
On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.
Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.
Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K, a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!
Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.
In the past month the Biden department of goalseeking stuff higher before revising it lower, has revised the following data sharply lower:
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 30, 2023
- Jobs
- JOLTS
- New Home sales
- Housing Starts and Permits
- Industrial Production
- PCE and core PCE
To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).
And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...
... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...
... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.
While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.
But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).
This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.
There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).
Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!
But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!
The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!
Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...
... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!
This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...
... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.
Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.
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