US equity futures and world stocks jumped to their highest in over a week after the latest CPI report calmed investor nerves about inflation which coupled with a solid 10Y auction and a surprise pledge from the ECB which pledged to ramp up its buying of government debt in coming months in a bid to a contain rising bond yields that threaten to derail the region’s economic recovery. The ECB announcement helped already low yields drop further and pushed the MSCI’s All Country World Index to its highest in just over a week, up 0.7% on the day. Tech stocks got a further boost - led by Chinese semi companies - after China's main industry association said it will work with its U.S. counterpart to discuss supply-chain safety and trade restrictions

Dow E-minis were up 118 points, or 0.37%, S&P 500 E-minis were up 30.25 points, or 0.77% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 248 points, or 2% At 7:45 a.m. ET.

After several days of volatility, Nasdaq futures pointed to the return of tech outperformance as Treasury yields stabilized with Apple and Tesla climbed in premarket trading. Mega-cap stocks Microsoft and Amazon.com gained between 1.5% and 4.3% premarket as the benchmark Treasury yields dipped below the key 1.5% mark after shooting to a one-year high above 1.6% last week.

JD.com Inc climbed about 8% premarket after the Chinese e-commerce company reported a jump in fourth-quarter revenue as it benefited from a broader shift to online shopping triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. Bumble Inc jumped about 10% after it reported a bigger-than-expected rise in fourth-quarter revenue and said it expected pent-up demand from people who had been avoiding dating in person due to the pandemic. AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. jumped 10% after posting a smaller-than-expected loss, while GameStop sank 6% following a wild day of volatility. Roblox soared 10% as Cathie Wood’s Ark Investment Management disclosed a stake in the digital games company.

High-growth tech stocks, which are attempting to regain their footing after a recent pullback, are sensitive to increasing interest rates as they are valued on earnings expected years into the future. The Nasdaq is now about 7% below its Feb. 12 record close after falling as much as 12% last week. 

Market sentiment has gotten a boost from Wednesday’s weaker-than-expected report on U.S. consumer prices, which eased concern about broader inflationary pressures. Ten-year Treasury yields have steadied around 1.5% in recent days, helping breathe life back into technology stocks that were pummeled over the past month. Another bullish catalyst for the U.S. market is the $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief bill, which cleared its final congressional hurdle and will be signed by President Joe Biden on Friday. Most Americans will be receiving direct payments of $1,400, with the money starting to go out within days.

"It is one of the most far-reaching federal relief efforts to ever pass Congress and another reason to be confident of the outlook for U.S. equities," said Willem Sels, chief investment officer at HSBC Private Banking and Wealth Management. “We think that the bond market has sold off too much.”

European stocks climbed, with the European STOXX 600 index reaching a one-year peak and extending gains after the European Central Bank pledged to ramp up its buying of government debt in coming months in a bid to a contain rising bond yields which threaten to derail the region’s economic recovery. While policy makers are now committing to front load purchases, they still kept the overall size of the 1.85 trillion-euro ($2.2 trillion) pandemic bond-buying program unchanged.

France’s CAC 40 index rose 0.14%, and Italy’s FTSEMIB 0.8%%. Britain’s FTSE 100 index fell 0.36% and Germany’s DAX traded flat. European stocks got a lift after the ECB's unexpected announcement of "significantly faster" bond purchases in the coming quarter which hammered Bund yields to session lows, pressured the EUR and pushed European stocks higher.

Earlier in Asia, an index of regional stocks excluding Japan rose 1.78%, led by a 2.3% surge in South Korea’s Kospi, and was on track for its first three-day advance in three weeks. China’s Shanghai Composite rallied 1.9%, helped by local lending data while the CSI 300 Index surged 2.5% on Thursday, its biggest daily gain in two months, on the last day of the National People’s Congress. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.5%.

Asian stocks advanced for a third day and are now set to cap their longest winning streak in a month, with markets in China and Hong Kong leading gains. The Chinext index of Chinese small caps was the best performer among the region’s benchmarks, followed by the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and then the CSI 300 Index. Chinese semiconductor firms surged after the country’s main industry association said it will work with its U.S. counterpart to discuss supply-chain safety and trade restrictions. China’s leading chip-maker Semiconductor Manufacturing International was among the biggest contributors to the Hong Kong measure’s climb. The CSI 300 index’s rally Thursday followed a 0.7% advance in the previous session, giving the gauge its first back-to-back gain in a month. The rebound follows a 14% plunge in 14 trading days through Tuesday, wiping out more than $1.3 trillion from equities. Elsewhere, South Korea’s Kospi and the bluechip Kospi 200 index each rose almost 2%, led by a rebound in technology stocks and foreign buying. Philippine and Malaysia stocks underperformed, while Indian markets were closed for a trading holiday

Treasuries dropped to session lows, with relative calm in the Treasuries market helping risk sentiment, with the benchmark yield settling as low as 1.4750% after shooting to a one-year high above 1.6% last week as investors worried the U.S. economic recovery would run too hot.

The highlight is today's duration supply which includes $24b 30-year bond reopening and a 7-part jumbo corporate offering from Verizon expected. Treasuries were supported by ECB intervention and also by buying during the Asia session amid gains for Aussie and New Zealand bonds; long-end Treasuries lag with supply event ahead, while 2s5s10s fly richens more than 4bp as belly leads gains; 5s30s curve is steeper by ~3.5bp. The week's auction cycle concludes with $24BN 30-year bond sale at 1pm ET. 

“If we look at history, we see that when yields have gone up, after a while equity markets have generally been okay,” said Justin Onuekwusi, portfolio manager at Legal & General Investment Management. “The only time you really see both equities and bonds sell off is in periods when there is a significant inflation scare.” At this point ,with unemployment still so high, it is hard to see inflation becoming a problem, Onuekwusi said. Higher yields could be read as showing “that we are actually getting out of the quagmire we have been in.”

“And there is a natural yield cap -- central banks will step in when rates move too quickly. They are differentiating between levels of yield and speed at which yields move.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell to a one-week low as the greenback was lower against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen. The Australian dollar extended gains in European hours, leading commodity currencies higher as gains in stocks and U.S. equity futures stoked risk appetite. The euro rose a third day to approach $1.20 before it dipped after the ECB pledged to step up pace of bond buying to counter market sell-off.  The yen underperformed its Group-of-10 peers as rising equities damped demand for haven assets, and was sold for the euro as investors were said to be watching option barriers at 130

In commodities, copper climbed above $9,000 a ton in London, oil advanced and the dollar weakened.

The Labor Department’s data at 8:30 a.m. ET is expected to show the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits fell to 725,000 in the latest week from 745,000, amid an improving public health environment.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.7% to 3,923.50
• Nasdaq 100 futures up 1.7% to 12968.75
• Euro up 0.2% to $1.1958
• Brent Futures up 1.2% to $68.71/bbl
• WTI crude oil futures up 1.5% to $65.48/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,734
• U.S. Dollar Index down 0.23% to 91.61
• MXAP up 1.3% to 207.46
• MXAPJ up 1.8% to 695.66
• Nikkei up 0.6% to 29,211.64
• Topix up 0.3% to 1,924.92
• Hang Seng Index up 1.7% to 29,385.61
• Shanghai Composite up 2.4% to 3,436.83
• Sensex up 0.5% to 51,279.51
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 6,713.92
• Kospi up 1.9% to 3,013.70

Top US News from Bloomberg

• Global money manager BlackRock Inc. says gold is proving to be a less effective hedge against moves in other assets, such as stocks, as well as inflation, according to Russ Koesterich, portfolio manager for BlackRock’s Global Allocation Fund
• Bank of Japan officials are looking at ways to enable bond yields to move around more as they try to improve the functioning of a bond market dominated by the central bank, according to people familiar with the matter
• Chinese lawmakers approved an extensive overhaul of how Hong Kong chooses its leaders, a momentous step in Beijing’s efforts to curb opposition in the Asian financial hub’s political system
• Italy’s Matteo Salvini hinted at an early end to Mario Draghi’s term in office and indicated the prime minister could be a candidate for head of state when that job becomes available early next year

Quick look at global markets courtesy of Newquawk

Asia-Pac bourses traded mostly positive as the region built upon the somewhat mixed performance stateside where the DJIA posted fresh record highs whilst tech suffered from a continued rotation into value. ASX 200 (Unch.) opened higher with strength seen in airlines and tourism-related stocks after Australia’s government unveiled a AUD 1.2bln stimulus package focused on tourism including subsidized airfares for 800k domestic flights, although the gains in the index were later pared amid underperformance in tech and losses in the top-weighted financials sector as yields eased. Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) traded positive with exporters underpinned by a predominantly weaker currency and the KOSPI (+1.9%) was among the outperformers after strong early trade figures for this month which showed exports rose 25.2% Y/Y and imports increased by 31.4% Y/Y during the first 10 days in March. Hang Seng (+1.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (+2.4%) were also lifted after US and Chinese officials agreed to conduct a 2-day summit next week in Alaska where Secretary of State Blinken and White House National Security Advisor Sullivan will meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Director of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission Yang Jiechu in what will be the first in-person meeting between US and Chinese senior representatives under the Biden administration, while the latest data releases from China also provided encouragement in which both New Yuan Loans and Aggregate Financing topped estimates. Finally, 10yr JGBs were initially subdued amid gains in stocks and with T-notes pulling back in the aftermath of a lacklustre 10yr government bond auction in US, although 10yr JGBs later gained on return from the lunch and following mixed results at the 20yr JGB auction which printed a higher b/c but weaker accepted prices.

Top Asian News

• The Tactics People Are Using to Get Their Money Out of China
• Covid Outbreak Hits Hong Kong Banks, Gyms, International Schools
• China Chip Industry Group Says It’ll Work With U.S. Counterpart
• Taiwan’s Central Bank Plays Down Concern Over Manipulator Tag

Stocks in Europe see more of a mixed picture (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%) following a broadly positive open amid a similar APAC handover and in the run-up to the ECB confab (full preview available in the Research Suite). US equity futures meanwhile see more pronounced gains with the tech-laden NQ (+1.6%) outpacing the ES (+0.7%), RTY (+0.6%) and YM (+0.3%) as yields ease, with the US 10yr sub-1.50% at the time of writing. One potential reason for the firmer State-side performance could be the stimulus expected to be injected into the economy soon as the House unsurprisingly passed the relief bill last night. On that note, a recent Deutsche Bank survey of 430 retail investors found that on average, they plan to put 37% of stimulus checks into equities - with this package's checks amounting to USD 400bln in direct payments of USD 1,400 per person. Back to Europe, sectors are mixed with Banks lagging as they bear the brunt of the pullback in yields, closely followed by Auto names. On the flip side, Tech, Basic Resources and Travel & Leisure reside at the top of the pile, with the former in-fitting with the outperformance in the NQ future with some tailwinds potentially emanating from reports that the US and China semiconductor associations are to set up a work team and will communicate on export curbs - which lifted chip names in the overnight session. Overall, sectors do not provide much of a risk bias. Onto individual movers, SAP (+0.4%) has conformed to the broad rise in tech after being initially dented by Oracle (-4.5% premkt.) whose shares slumped post-earnings. AstraZeneca (-2.1%) meanwhile has been grinding lower following reports that the Danish Health Authority has temporarily halted the use of the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine due to serious cases of blood clots - following two similar events reported in Austria. Credit Suisse (-2.4%) is pressured after Bronte Capital Management said it has placed a ‘reasonably sized’ short against the Co., due to expectations of potential client compensation relating to Greensil funds and the substantial losses experienced. While EDF (+6.0%) is bolstered as sources stated that French and EU authorities are continuing their discussion over the Co’s restructuring which are to enter a ‘make or break’ period shortly and look to complete by end-March. Finally onto earnings, Rolls Royce (+2.6%) trades firmer despite the detrimental COVID impact on earnings, as the group highlighted abundant liquidity and a more constructive outlook. Other earnings-related movers include Pirelli (-1.0), Traton (+0.2%), and K+S (+2.4%).

Top European News

• EU Urges U.K. to Come Clean on Vaccine Exports in Heated Dispute
• Lex Greensill’s Dreams of a $7 Billion Empire Unraveled in Days
• Italy’s Salvini Hints at Time Limit for Draghi as Premier
• BNP Seeks to Buy Remaining 50% of Exane to Boost Equities Unit

In FX, the Dollar’s demise may not have been quite as quick or dramatic as its recent resurgence, but from a technical standpoint the loss of support for the index at 91.740 could be telling as the DXY eyes 91.500 to the downside having topped 92.500 just 2 days ago. However, salvation may come from the latest IJC updates and/or externally if the ECB manages to talk down yields with enough dovish intent or policy guidance, assuming no actual measures designed to maintain favourable financing conditions. Barring that, the Greenback may have to rely on option expiries for respite unless US Treasuries revert to bear-steepening before the long bond auction that follows details of next week’s 20 year and 10 year TIPS issuance.

• AUD/EUR/JPY - All benefiting at the Buck’s expense, albeit to varying degrees, with the Aussie back up above 0.7750, and also drawing impetus from the CNH reclaiming 6.5000+ status in wake of a firmer PBoC midpoint fix overnight. Similarly, the Euro has rebounded through 1.1950 in advance of the ECB and the Yen is attempting to breach 108.50 again amidst yet another BoJ source report suggesting that more tolerance around the 0% central target for 10 year JGBs may be looked at in the upcoming policy review along with bigger reserve exemptions from negative rates. Meanwhile, hefty 1.2 bn option expiry interest at 108.50 may underpin Usd/Jpy, while Eur/Usd could be hampered by 1.1 bn rolling off between 1.1915-10 at the NY cut having faded into last Friday’s pre-NFP high (1.1977) and Aud/Usd will at least be aware of 1.1 bn spanning 0.7725-10 even though the spot price is considerably higher at present.
• NZD/CHF - The Kiwi is looking much more comfortable on the 0.7200 handle vs its US counterpart in advance of NZ’s manufacturing PMI, and could derive additional impetus via any Aud/Nzd cross flows related to 2.2 bn option expiries at the 1.0730 strike given several attempts to the upside, but no decisive break above 1.0750. Elsewhere, the Franc has clawed back more losses to probe 0.9250 and bounce from around 1.1100 against the Euro after upgrades to Swiss SECO Government forecasts for 2021 and 2022 CPI.
• CAD/GBP - Firmer crude prices have helped the Loonie breach 1.2600 vs its US rival as attention switches from a rather bland BoC event to the Economic Progress Report delivered by Deputy Governor Schembri, while Sterling has secured a firmer foothold above 1.3900 and is looking to extend through 1.3950 awaiting Friday’s raft of UK data.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures have seen somewhat of a choppy session thus far, whereby the complex traded firmer but off best after tracking sentiment and the softer Buck as news-flow for the complex remains light -with some positive overnight omens potentially emanating from the confirmation of the US-China meeting next week, which will set the tone for bilateral relations. However, prices have since given up some of those gains despite a lack of fresh catalysts. Newswires yesterday caused some confusion across the crude complex as Russian Deputy PM Novak's comments were misinterpreted whereby the original headline suggested a sudden substantial output hike in May, although newswires later clarified the comments which were in-line with the OPEC+ accord. WTI Apr and Brent May reside just under USD 65.00/bbl and 68.50/bbl respectively, awaiting the OPEC monthly oil market report (tbc) and the ECB policy meeting. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver inversely track the Buck amidst a slow news morning, with the yellow metal inching closer towards USD 1,750/oz (vs low USD 1,722/oz). In terms of base metals, copper is back on the grind higher amid the weaker Dollar, constructive risk tone and the US House passage of the US stimulus bill. Dalian iron ore meanwhile jumped over 5.5% follow two consecutive sessions of substantial losses as Australian shipments of the base metal fell to a two-year trough.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30am: March Initial Jobless Claims, est. 725,000, prior 745,000; Continuing Claims, est. 4.2m, prior 4.3m
• 9:45am: March Langer Consumer Comfort, prior 48.9
• 10am: Jan. JOLTs Job Openings, est. 6,700, prior 6,646
• 12pm: 4Q US Household Change in Net Wor, prior $3.82t

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight warp

For those following my tale of woe yesterday, the good news is that Jamie got a negative test result yesterday lunchtime and all three of them will return to school today assuming that nothing else happens between me pressing send and 9am this morning.

In these markets you don’t know quite what’s going to happen between pressing send and the report being in inboxes. There remains quite a few wildly fluctuating battles at the moment. However over the last 24 hours things have calmed down a bit even if we did see rotation back into cyclicals again after a tipsy-turvy week. Overall equity markets rose for a second straight day with the S&P 500 up +0.60%, while the tech-heavier NASDAQ edged -0.04% lower. The S&P 500 is just inches (or centimetres depending on your preference), away (-0.92%) from its all-time high recorded in mid-February. Meanwhile the NASDAQ is still about -7.3% away from its record high hit around the same time. More interestingly, the NYSE FANG was down -1.36% yesterday and remains -12.1% off record highs. The rotation trade was back as energy (+2.63%) and bank (+2.60%) stocks took back leadership of the S&P after tech had a stunning day on Tuesday. Semiconductors (-1.41%) and Tech Hardware (-0.59%) were the only level 2 industries in the S&P to fall yesterday out of 24. Smaller US companies out-performed with the Russell 2000 adding +1.81%, and is now less than -0.5% down from its mid-February highs. The VIX volatility index fell -1.5pts to 22.6, its lowest level since late-February. In Europe the STOXX 600 (+0.46%) hit a new 14-month high. Sector performance was mixed as STOXX Oil & Gas rose +1.14%, while STOXX Banks fell -0.18%.

The ‘GameStop’ saga continued yesterday as its shares surged +41.2% intraday and was remarkably back at above its record closing level from late January before dropping -50% from those levels over a 30 minute period, and then finishing +6.54% higher on the day. For reference it traded at 43 on January 21st, 347.5 on January 26th, slumping to 53.3 on February 4th and moving below 50 for most of the middle of February, climbing to around 100 at the end of the month and now back at 265 after touching 348.5 at its highs yesterday. This latest climb (6 days) is the longest winning streak in six months. Fellow Reddit stock AMC followed a similar path, up nearly +19% ahead of its earnings announcement after the close before the stock lost over -20% from those intraday highs. Bitcoin also briefly traded above its record close yesterday before settling for a +4.81% rise – its 4th daily rise in a row to close just under 1% away from its own record high.

Overnight, Asian markets are mostly trading up with Chinese markets leading the way as the CSI (+2.25%), Shanghai Comp (+1.95%) and Shenzhen Comp (+2.13%) are all making handsome gains. The rise in Chinese shares comes as the NPC came to an end and the Chinese financial daily Securities Times carried a front page commentary asking new investors to keep calm and rational amid sharp volatility in the stock market and adding that they should seek returns for the long term. Other markets in the region like the Nikkei (+0.51%), Hang Seng (+1.47%) and Kospi (+2.17%) are all also up. Futures on the S&P 500 are also higher (+0.49%) while those on the Nasdaq are up +0.72%. Looking at sovereign yields, those on the US 10 year are flattish while Australian (-5.7bps) and New Zealand (-8.2bps) 10 year yields are down.

In other overnight news, Italy’s Matteo Salvini, chief of the League party, hinted at an early end to Mario Draghi’s term in office as PM and indicated Draghi could be a candidate for head of state when that job becomes available early next year. In the interview he also said that his previously euroskeptic party now firmly favours both the single currency and European Union membership.

Back to yesterday and government bonds had a quieter day with 10yr Treasury yields largely flat (-0.8bps) at 1.518% as the fall in real rates (-6.0bps) was offset by a pickup of inflation expectations with 10yr breakevens rising +5.0bps. Even as inflation expectations rose, US yields overall fell -6.1bps from their highs after the slightly softer CPI print (see more below). The much anticipated auction of $38bn worth of US 10yr bonds went fairly smoothly, the second auction of US debt in as many days, with bonds continuing to rise after the auction. Later today the market will see the third Treasury auction of the week, with $24bn of 30yr paper coming to market. 30yr yields rose +0.5bps ahead of this. For a second day in a row European rates matched their US counterparts with 10yr German bunds (-1.2bps) and 10yr Gilt (-1.3bps) rising slightly.

In related news, our US rates strategist Stuart Sparks has revised up the team’s forecast for 10yr yields to 2.25% by the end of the 2021. This is predicated on a 65% chance of returning to the pre-2014 regime for inflation, money market slope, and the term premium. The forecast is a weighted probability but it all likelihood they admit the outcome is likely more binary with yields ending the year nearer 1% if no regime change and nearer 3% if we do see it. This hints at the big battle continuing until a winner is declared. For more details see the full note here.

Yesterday’s aforementioned US inflation release was quite uneventful but inflation numbers at this stage are simply sparring ahead of the main bout of re-openings and the stimulus package filtering into the economy. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI nudged up 0.1% month-on-month in February (0.2% expected), after being unchanged for two straight months, and up 1.3% year-on-year, retreating from January’s 1.4% gain. The headline rate was in-line with expectations at 0.4% month-on-month (vs. 0.3% in January) and 1.7% year-on-year (vs. 1.4% in January) as the cost of gasoline rose further. The core CPI was lifted by rises in the costs of recreation, medical care and motor vehicle insurance, which offset declines in prices for airline fares, used cars and trucks and apparel.

Despite the calm in fixed income markets, investors are still likely to be on the alert today as the ECB meets. Our Chief Economist Mark Wall thinks the dominant theme at the ECB press conference on is likely to be the recent increase in yields. He thinks the ECB will try to walk a middle path between optimism and caution. He expects the ECB to emphasize their commitment to preserving favourable financing conditions, which encompasses sovereign yields, and its willingness to use the PEPP’s capacity and flexibility. On top of that, the ECB will release its March 2021 staff forecasts and there is scope for the ECB staff to be a little more optimistic. Net-net, we expect the 2021 and 2022 GDP forecasts to be revised up by 0.1-0.2pp, with the level of GDP at the end of 2021 no lower than where the staff expected it to be in the December forecast. See their preview note here.

The US House of Representatives passed President Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief package by a 220 to 211 vote. President Biden will sign the legislation tomorrow to cap a nearly two-month process that started shortly after his inauguration. The direct payments of $1400 to a majority of Americans will be sent out within days of the President’s signature, while the $300/week supplemental unemployment benefits will now be extended to September with no lapse. Treasury Secretary Yellen was out selling the package, anticipating that the legislation could allow the labour market to recover to full employment by the end of 2022.

Staying with US politics, the Biden administration announced a summit with Chinese officials in Alaska on March 18th. Secretary of State Blinken and National Security Advisor Sullivan will meet with China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, and its top diplomat, Yang Jiechi. The meeting comes on the heels of Mr Blinken naming China a top threat to the US in a speech recently, saying China is the one country able “to seriously challenge the stable and open international system.” US officials have not released details on the agenda for the talks, although Mr. Blinken tweeted that he looked forward to discussing “a range of issues, including those where we have deep disagreements” and said elsewhere that the US is looking to explore what avenues exist to cooperate with China. One only need to remember the summer of 2018 to know how China-US relations can shift risk market narratives.

Turning to the pandemic, the variant that started in the UK last year in September and since spread to more than 100 other countries is between 30% and 100% more deadly than previous dominant variants, according to a research report published on Wednesday. In Europe, the European Commission said on Wednesday it has reached a deal with drugmakers Pfizer and BioNTech for the supply of an additional four million COVID-19 vaccine doses to be delivered this month.This comes as President Biden announced that the US will double their Johnson & Johnson order with production help from Merck. This amounts to an additional 100m doses, which will allow the country to inoculate 500 million people among its various contracts. Meanwhile on therapeutics, Vir Biotechnology and GlaxoSmithKline said that their monotherapy drug for early treatment of Covid-19 in adults at high risk of hospitalisation was found to be 85% effective in reducing hospitalisation or death compared with the placebo group in phase 3 trials. The companies are now planning to submit an emergency use authorisation application to the U.S. FDA and also in other countries. The companies also said that the results of an about to be published study would show that the treatment maintains efficacy against current variants of concern, including the U.K., South African and Brazilian ones.

Looking at yesterday’s data, apart from the CPI releases in the US which we have covered above, there were inflation data releases across Europe, including Denmark, Norway, the Czech Republic and Portugal, with the latter reporting a final year-on-year CPI increase of +0.48% in February, compared with a +0.49% rise the month before. Meanwhile, industrial production in France rose +3.3% month-on-month (+0.5% expected) in January, compared with a -0.8% fall the month before.

To the day ahead now, apart from the ECB rate decision, there is there is the jobless claims release in the US, as well as inflation data from Romania, Ireland and Brazil, and a rate decision in Peru.