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Leo Varadkar: the political backdrop to his shock resignation as Ireland’s prime minister

The taoiseach has not explained his sudden decision to leave but could he have an eye on Europe’s top job?

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Leo Varadkar stunned Ireland by resigning as taoiseach (prime minister) in an emotional speech that saw him claim to be going for reasons both “personal and political”. However, he hasn’t cited any examples of either, leaving us somewhat in the dark about his departure.

Varadkar’s decision to leave office once a successor is agreed came as a surprise, even to many in his own party, the Christian Democratic centre-right Fine Gael (Party of the Irish). Varadkar had said that he would resign before the age of 50, but, at 45, is leaving well before his self-imposed deadline. Varadkar was seen as young and enthusiastic – and as an openly gay man of Indian-Irish heritage, his rise was symbolic of a changing Ireland.

Varadkar was marked out for political success early on. He entered parliament in 2007 and has been in the cabinet since 2011. He played key roles in referendums legalising gay marriage and liberalising access to abortion and divorce. Becoming taoiseach the year after the 2016 Brexit referendum, he is credited with ensuring that Irish interests were represented by the EU in the difficult negotiations between London and Brussels. But in the process he became something of a maligned figure among Northern Ireland unionists.

In his most recent period as taoiseach since December 2022, he has been at the helm of a booming economy and budgetary surpluses that are a far cry from the austerity which characterised his early years in government.

However Varadkar’s electoral fortunes were less convincing. His party lost almost a third of its seats in the 2020 general election, and only remained in office by governing with its historical rival Fianna Fáil and the Green Party. He also lost all five byelections his party contested during his premiership.

Why resign, and why now?

Recently, Varadkar’s coalition government lost surprisingly badly in two referendums aimed at liberalising the national constitution, both of which it had expected to win. A third of his party’s TDs (MPs) have also announced that they won’t contest the next general election.

This paints a picture of a government at odds with the public mood and an internally unsettled party. That said, a renewal of the current Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil coalition is possible as poll leaders Sinn Féin lack obvious coalition partners. Even if Fine Gael does return to government, however, it would likely have a reduced majority in parliament.


Read more: Ireland referendums: what went wrong for the government and why double defeat draws a line under a decade of constitutional reform


It’s possible that Varadkar, having already been taoiseach twice and party leader since 2017, doesn’t have the energy for another election campaign. But his successor must hit the ground running if Fine Gael is to return to winning ways in time for local elections in June. A general election must be held by March 2025 but may be even sooner following this resignation.

Resigning now gives Varadkar’s replacement a year to get their message across before the general election, but it has left them in the lurch for June. Perhaps the calculation is to let the electorate vent frustrations at ongoing problems around housing costs and more recently, migration, before the next general election.

For Varadkar, personally, there are few obvious jobs available in the short term, so he may take some time away from the spotlight. However the upcoming European elections might offer opportunities if some of the highest positions in Europe come up for grabs.

The European elections are expected to result in the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) winning the most seats, a group which includes Varadkar’s Fine Gael. Often this grants the group the chance to appoint someone to the role of president of the European Commission (the president does not have to be an MEP).

Since 2019 that role has been held by a German, Ursula von der Leyen of the EPP, who was backed for the job by compatriot Angela Merkel, also of the EPP. However, much has changed since. Germany is now led by Olaf Scholz whose party is in the centre-left Socialists & Democrats group and he may not want a national rival holding such a high profile post. Similarly, other EU countries may prefer a non-German leader as countries compete for positions and are wary of too much power resting with France and Germany.

Ireland has never had a commission president and is one of just nine EU countries currently led by the EPP. Conveniently for Ireland, this short list does not include European heavyweights France, Germany, Italy or Spain. If it plays its cards right, Fine Gael could leverage itself as the compromise option for that post.

It would be unwise to make firm predictions here, particularly as Poland and Sweden are led by EPP members – but this would be ideal for Fine Gael. Varadkar’s claim to have no interest in an EU role should be taken with a large pinch of salt. He can’t openly campaign against Von der Leyen but in reality, few politicians would turn down a chance to take her job.

Ireland’s (newest) youngest PM?

With other potential candidates declaring their intention not to compete to succeed Varadkar, Simon Harris, minister for further and higher education, research, innovation and science, looks set to become taoiseach. A vote could be held at the party conference in April, but as the only candidate at time of writing, Harris may have things wrapped up well before then. Aged 37, Harris would beat Varadkar’s record as the youngest taoiseach (he was 38) and is seen as a strong media performer.

Harris is young, but has been a TD since 2011 and a minister since 2014, notably serving as health minister during the pandemic. He will take over a party shedding experienced TDs across the country, which will no doubt hurt them at the election.

Opposition parties are already calling for the general election to be brought forward, so Harris must align with both Fianna Fáil and the Greens to push for a longer time frame. Otherwise a snap election could be on the cards.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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GSK to part ways with ‘most’ Bellus Health employees a year after $2B buy

Many of the employees behind GSK’s late-stage investigational drug for chronic cough will be let go at the end of March.
Roberto Bellini
“After having…

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Many of the employees behind GSK’s late-stage investigational drug for chronic cough will be let go at the end of March.

Roberto Bellini

“After having completed the transition activities linked to the GSK acquisition, most Bellus Health employees will be wrapping up their involvement with the company on March 31,” Roberto Bellini, the longtime CEO of Bellus, wrote Thursday on LinkedIn.

A year ago, GSK bought the Canadian biotech for $2 billion for Bellus’ Phase 3 chronic cough candidate, which was expected to compete with Merck’s P2X3 antagonist. That drug was rejected by the FDA for a second time in December.

In his LinkedIn post, Bellini said it was the “end of an era.” He’s now a managing partner at life sciences investor BSquared Capital.

“We’re excited to see GSK complete the last legs of the journey and fulfill our mission of getting this important product to the chronic cough patient community,” Bellini wrote.

GSK, which completed the deal in June, did not disclose the number of roles impacted. In his LinkedIn post, Bellini tagged about 40 people whose profiles list them as Bellus employees.

“During the GSK-Bellus acquisition, we retained employees to a predetermined date to ensure the successful integration of the business,” a GSK spokesperson told Endpoints News. “As often is the case during this process, redundancies may occur.”

GSK is currently running two Phase 3 trials for its lead drug from Bellus, a P2X3 antagonist known as camlipixant or BLU-5937. Data are expected next year, the drugmaker has said.

“We look forward to continuing to drive the CALM Phase 3 clinical development program forward to address the unmet needs of patients living with refractory chronic cough,” the spokesperson wrote.

GSK has described camlipixant as one of its top clinical prospects, and chief commercial officer Luke Miels has said the company projects peak sales in the “single billion dollar” range.

Chronic cough can interrupt daily activities, impair people’s ability to work and disrupt social experiences as some say the condition has been stigmatized due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The pharma has estimated about 10 million people in the US and EU experience refractory chronic cough for more than a year.

Merck has said it’s going through feedback from the FDA’s latest no-go for gefapixant, its chronic cough candidate. The treatment is approved in the EU, Switzerland and Japan.

Other companies in the category include startup Nocion Therapeutics, which this month reeled in $62 million for a Phase 2b this year testing whether its alternative approach to treatment can work. Aldeyra Therapeutics, meanwhile, “deprioritized” its mid-stage treatment candidate in January.

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TikTok’s duet, green screen and stitch turn political point-scoring into an art form

TikTok’s features for combining different users’ videos have sparked a wave of creativity. They’ve also formed an arena for political arguments and…

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TikTok's features for combining users' videos lend themselves to political disputes. Quick et al, CC BY-NC-SA

Since its astronomical rise in popularity during the 2020 COVID-19 lockdowns, TikTok has played an increasing role in all aspects of American life, including politics, from the White House briefing key TikTok creators on the war in Ukraine to Joe Biden’s presidential campaign launching a TikTok account.

The U.S. House of Representatives passed legislation on March 13, 2024, seeking to force TikTok’s China-based parent company to sell the app or face a ban in the U.S. Even if this legislation passes the Senate and Biden signs it into law, it’s unlikely TikTok will go away before the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Any law banning TikTok is likely to be challenged in court, and the app won’t simply disappear from people’s phones overnight.

Given that TikTok is almost certain to play a role in the 2024 election, it’s important to examine how TikTok helps shape political expression and discussion. With communications scholar Mackenzie Quick, I recently published a journal article exploring how American TikTok users use the app’s stitch, duet and green screen features to stoke partisan conflict.

Getting together

TikTok says its mission is to “inspire creativity and bring joy.” In 2019, it introduced several features to help bolster that mission: duet, green screen and stitch. Duet allows you to post your video side by side with a video from another TikTok user. Green screen allows you to superimpose your video on a video from another TikTok user. Stitch allows you to append your video to the end of a short clip from a video from another TikTok user.

TikTok offers several ways to add your video commentary to other people’s tiktoks.

TikTok describes these features as giving users “the most creative tools available” and providing a way for users “to engage with the world of content that’s made … by the ever-creative TikTok community.” Given these descriptions, it appears that these tools were designed to increase creativity, interaction and connections.

They can be used in playful ways or used by subject matter experts to convey information. For example, some veterinarians use TikTok to convey pet health information.

However, a platform’s statements about how it intends its features to be used and how people actually use them can be quite different. While these features are often used in TikTok’s preferred ways, our research found that in political tiktoks, people often used the tools to double down on their political positions and attack those who don’t agree with them. In a time of volatile political divisiveness, these features can function as outlets for people to express their strongly held political views.

blurred photo of a woman's face superimposed ove a text list
A TikTok user makes a political statement using the app’s green screen feature. Quick et al, CC BY-NC-SA

Scoring points

Reinforcement and insults were recurring themes in our study. For instance, the green screen feature was often used to incorporate “evidence” in the background to support the creator’s claims. With this feature, “evidence” was often presented in the form of news articles or posts from other social media platforms.

One post from a conservative-leaning creator features a screenshot of the Apple iTunes music store charts to show the popularity of a song called “Let’s Go Brandon,” a conservative rallying cry and coded insult against Biden. This creator presents the song’s position at No. 1 in the music store as proof that the conservative viewpoint is popular. “Evidence” is a loose term and could be anything that supported the creator’s viewpoint.

We found the duet feature was often used to communicate nonverbally, often to poke fun at someone with opposing political views. Eye rolling, smirking and head shaking were common gestures. In one video, a conservative creator starts a chain – an extended succession of duets – of women who support former President Donald Trump. A liberal-leaning creator uses the duet feature to join the chain with video of themselves holding a clothes iron out to the side to make it appear as though the iron is burning the original creator’s hand.

Side-by-side photos of people with faces blurred
TikTok’s duet feature is often used to show support or opposition to a political statement. Quick et al, CC BY-NC-SA

Stitches functioned similarly to duets, but people tended to use the feature as a chance to verbally respond and refute the previous creator’s point. These uses show that on political TikTok, personal feelings and proving others wrong matter more than constructive debate.

The who and why of political TikTok

While regulation of the app is a political issue, understanding how political conversations occur across TikTok remains important for understanding an increasingly polarized American electorate. When considering political discussions on TikTok, however, it’s important to remember that the app’s features don’t force users to do anything. Users actively shape their experiences in digital spaces.

Also, as political communication scholars Daniel Kreiss and Shannon McGregor note, it’s important to proceed with caution when discussing the effects of technology on polarization because not all groups experience polarization the same way. For instance, the Black Lives Matter movement may be seen as polarizing for disrupting existing power structures, but its goal is to fight for equality, and it’s important to consider that context when looking at the group’s use of technology.

The lesson is to consider who is engaging in polarizing content and why they are doing so. While some users expressing themselves via these TikTok features aim to simply prove others wrong, akin to petty arguments, others may be critiquing and challenging the powerful.

Jessica Maddox does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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Global Population Set To Fall For First Time In 700 Years

Global Population Set To Fall For First Time In 700 Years

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A major study published in scientific…

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Global Population Set To Fall For First Time In 700 Years

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A major study published in scientific journal The Lancet has found that the global population will start to fall within decades due to vastly reduced fertility rates and may never recover.

The study, funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, found that by the year 2050, 155 of 204 countries are on course to have birth rates lower than required to sustain the population level.

It notes that as of 2021, the “total fertility rate” worldwide was 2.23, hovering only just above the 2.1 children per woman needed to maintain population growth.

That figure has fallen from 4.84 in 1950, with researchers predicting it will decrease to 1.83 in 2050 and go as low as 1.59 by 2100.

The study notes that by that time only 26 countries will have birth rates that outpace the number of people dying, with “most of the world transitioning into natural population decline”.

A fall in population would mark the first time in seven centuries such an occurrence has taken place.

The last time it happened was after the Black Death bubonic plague pandemic killed as many as 50 million people in the mid-1300s, reducing the global population from 400 million to 350 million.

Commenting on the study, it’s co-author Dr Natalia Bhattacharjee said declining fertility rates “will completely reconfigure the global economy and the international balance of power and will necessitate reorganising societies”.

Bhattacharjee, lead research scientist at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, also noted that a major consequence will be increased immigration from countries where there is still a “baby boom,” such as sub-Saharan Africa, in order to make up workforce shortages in nations with aging populations.

Professor Stein Emil Vollset, senior author from IHME, also noted that the world is “facing staggering social change through the 21st century” due to population decline.

The findings are exactly what the likes of Elon Musk have been warning of for years, describing population decline as a ‘civilisational threat’ and urging that humanity is literally going to disappear if something is not done to reverse the trend.

While Eco loons rage about ‘moral issues’ with having children, the potential causes of fertility decline, such as plastics and chemical shrinking penises and sperm counts, are relatively ignored.

The stark reality is that birth rates globally are collapsing and almost every country is on course to have shrinking populations by the end of the century. 

In countries like South Korea and Japan, there are twice as many people are dying as there are being born. You don’t have to be a mathematic genius to do the calculations on what’s going to happen very soon.

These countries are already considering embracing mass migration, with South Korea’s Justice Minister recently declaring the country faces a “demographic catastrophe” and potential extinction otherwise.

Despite this horrifying reality, it is now commonplace in modern culture for young people to genuinely believe they need to abandon their human instincts to reproduce, all for the greater good:

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Tyler Durden Fri, 03/22/2024 - 07:20

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