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June Payrolls Preview: Hot But Not Too Hot

June Payrolls Preview: Hot But Not Too Hot

Labor market reading going into tomorrow’s Nonfarm Payrolls have been predominantly strong in June, but not all; as Newsquawk writes in its payrolls preview, ADP’s report was strong, but the whisper.

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June Payrolls Preview: Hot But Not Too Hot

Labor market reading going into tomorrow's Nonfarm Payrolls have been predominantly strong in June, but not all; as Newsquawk writes in its payrolls preview, ADP’s report was strong, but the whisper number was even higher. Challenger layoffs was an exceedingly solid print at the lowest figure since June 2000 with the report crediting record job openings and high job seeker confidence. Consumer Confidence continues to facilitate the potentially impressive NFP print, as it rose to the highest post-pandemic level, while the difference between jobs "plentiful" and jobs "hard to get" rose too. However, the jobless claims figure was poor and surprisingly rose, which may weigh, but the total number on unemployment benefits fell below 15mln for the first time since April ’20.

At the same time, business surveys, such as the ISM Manufacturing survey, painted a reasonably poorer picture with the headline figure falling alongside the employment sub-component dipping into contractionary territory, where panelists noted it remains difficult to fill vacant positions. Some of the former factors point to improving conditions and growing confidence amid the re-opening picture. However, slack still remains in the economy illustrated by the participation and unemployment rate still way off pre-COVID levels and record job openings.

Looking at high-frequency data on the labor market shows a mixed picture for the May and June survey weeks. While two of the six measures tracked by Goldman declined outright (Dallas Fed survey, Google mobility), there were strong gains in the two datasets that explicitly track employee scheduling (Homebase, ADP). These two indicators may more effectively track inflections in reopening categories like restaurants, hotels, and other services.

On this, and while the Fed continues to state unemployment has a long way to go, it is not unanimous. For instance, Quarles does not think we need to see labor force participation return to pre-COVID levels due to baby boomer retirements, although several members have said they are looking to return to the pre-COVID employment landscape.

Therefore, as Newsquawk summarizes, a decent print is only likely to amplify the hawkish calls at the Fed amid progress on "substantial further progress", sustaining expectations for a tapering announcement into year-end.

With that in mind this is what consensus expects from tomorrow's payroll report:

  • Non-farm Payrolls (exp. 7110k, prev. 559k);
  • Private Payrolls (exp. 615k, prev. 492k);
  • Manufacturing Payrolls (exp. 28k, prev. 23k);
  • Government Payrolls (prev. 67k);
  • Unemployment Rate (exp. 5.7%, prev. 5.8%);
  • Participation Rate (prev. 61.6%);
  • U6 Underemployment (prev. 10.2%);
  • EPOP (prev. 58.0%, vs 61.1% in Feb 2020);
  • Average Earnings M/M (exp. 0.4%, prev. 0.5%);
  • Average Earnings Y/Y (exp. 3.7%, prev. 2.0%);
  • Average Workweek Hours (exp. 34.9hrs, prev. 34.9hrs)

Guesses by bank, from high to low:

  • Citi 860K
  • BofA 800K
  • Daiwa 800K
  • JPM 800K
  • Jefferies 800K
  • NatWest 800K
  • TD 800K
  • GS 750K
  • WF 750K
  • SocGen 730K
  • Nomura 720K
  • UBS 711K
  • CS 700K
  • DB 700K
  • Mizuho 700K
  • Scotia 700K
  • Amherst 690K
  • HSBC 675K
  • Barx 625K
  • BNP 625K
  • MS 620K
  • RBC 570K
  • BMO 550K

Some more details from Newsquawk

ADP PAYROLLS: Ahead of Friday’s jobs report, the ADP’s gauge of payrolls showed 692k jobs being added to the US economy in June, above the forecasted 600k, but below May’s figure which was revised lower to 886k from 978k. Pantheon Macroeconomics hoped for a greater increase, based on the Homebase employment data, suggesting the signal for Friday’s NFP release is unclear. Pantheon highlights the ADP’s measure was short of the official payroll data for most of the pandemic, but it suddenly overshot in April and May, adding that the change was likely due to ADP’s model overstating the strength of macroeconomic variables (retail sales and jobless claims) while ignoring the labor supply shortfall. As such, payrolls growth has not kept pace with demand due to the participation rate remaining lower. Looking ahead, PM writes, “if the new pattern continues for June, Friday’s print will only be about 200K, but that would be wildly at odds with the clear message from the Homebase data suggesting that increasing labor supply allowed payrolls growth to jump to about 1mln”, an expectation Pantheon is sticking with, but believes the breadth of Friday's plausible outcomes is exceedingly broad.

JOBLESS CLAIMS: The initial jobless claims data released for the period that usually coincides with the BLS Employment Situation report showed a surprise rise to 412k from 375k, against the expected fall to 359k. Continued Claims followed suit and also surprised on the upside, rising to 3.518mln from 3.517mln (revised up from 3.499mln), against the expected fall to 3.43mln. The rise in initial claims marked the first increase in more than a month, although the gains were primarily seen in California, Pennsylvania, and Kentucky. The good news from the report was that the total number of people on unemployment benefits fell below 15mln for the first time since April 2020. However, looking at the headline prints, it does not bode so well for the June BLS data.

BUSINESS SURVEYS: The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 60.6 (prev. 61.2), below the expected 61.0. The survey gave a fairly negative insight into the labour market, highlighted by the Employment sub-component falling to 49.9 from 50.9, into contractionary territory after six straight months of expansion, with panellists continuing to note significant difficulties in attracting and retaining labor at their companies’ and suppliers’ facilities. Alongside this, panellists reported difficulties in filling open positions, continuing to limit manufacturing-growth potential. Looking at services, heading into this month’s payrolls the ISM Services data has yet to be released, and as such the IHS Markit Services May PMI data can be used as a proxy. The Markit data stated there was a further sharp rise in employment which can be derived down to the greater business requirements. However, despite that, the rate of job creation reduced as firms reported difficulties filling vacancies as they could not find suitable candidates. Nonetheless, jobs creation still remained sharp and outpaced the long-run series average.

CHALLENGER LAYOFFS: Challenger reported that job cut announcements fell from 24,586 in May to 20,746 in June, the lowest monthly total since June 2000, and -88% Y/Y. Challenger stated that so far this year, employers announced plans to cut 212,661 jobs, the lowest January-June total since 1995, and down 87% from the 1,585,047 jobs eliminated through the same period last year. The report noted they are seeing a rubber band snap back, and companies are holding on tight to their workers during a time of record job openings and very high job seeker confidence. Also, they have not seen job cuts this low since the Dot-Com boom. However, Challenger adds, the majority of cuts were attributed to Restructuring (10,876), while 2,950 were from plant and store closings. Nonetheless, a low challenger layoffs reading
bodes well for a  strong NFP print.

SLACK: Fed officials are looking past the headline unemployment rate to try and gauge the levels of slack that remain; accordingly, the U6 Underemployment metric, Participation Rate, as well as the Employment-to-Population ratio have gained in importance. Last month, U6 was 10.2% (vs 7.0% in February 2020), Participation at 61.6% (vs 63.3% in February 2020), and the Employment-Population Ratio at 58.0% (vs 61.1% in February 2020), all three indicating there is still a long way to go, and recovering the lost ground is not going to happen in the immediate short-term. Moreover, Fed officials continue to state that unemployment has a long way to go, although it is not unanimous, as Quarles noted he does not think we need to see labor force participation return to pre-COVID levels due to baby boomer retirements.

SENTIMENT: Consumer Confidence rose to the highest figure since February last year which indicates confidence has recuperated a large part of the COVID hit. Moreover, the view of the labor market has also drastically improved, as the “jobs hard to get” index fell to just below the pre-COVID level. Further signalling the positive outlook, the difference between jobs "plentiful" and jobs "hard to get" rose. Nonetheless, the future remains highly uncertain, as the level of people expecting business conditions to worsen has stopped falling. As such, the positive consumer confidence may filter through into a solid NFP figure.

SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT:  Recall that April and May disappointed in no small part due to seasonal adjustments that mistook a highly unusual reopening for a regular expansion. In June the seasonal adjustment is still negative (-200k), but less than in May (-400k) and April (- 800k). But In July the US economy normally lays off 1,000k workers meaning that if the reopening economy continues to add about 1mn jobs monthly (seasonally unadjusted) Nonfarm payrolls could be around +2mn on a seasonally adjusted basis. Clearly that implies a rapidly improving labor market, inflation, much higher interest rates and wider credit spreads.

Arguing for a better-than-expected report:

  • Reopening. The further decline in infection rates and looser restrictions on businesses and mask usage has supported job growth in virus-sensitive industries. For example, restaurant seatings on OpenTable rebounded to 90% of their 2019 levels during the June survey week, compared to 83% in the May survey week.

  • Seasonality. In April and May, reopening effects likely overlapped with normal seasonal hiring patterns, resulting in less-impressive job gains on a seasonally-adjusted basis.1 The June seasonal hurdle is sequentially easier in June however: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume 200k-400k of net hiring in June (mom nsa), compared to +414k in May 2021 and +823k in April 2021.Additionally, the end of the school year should result in fewer than normal education layoffs, given the 1.1mn staffers still not working because of pandemic.
  • Labor supply constraints. We also expect less of a drag from labor supply constraints in tomorrow’s report, due to the arrival of the youth summer labor force and the wind-down of federal unemployment top-ups in some states. As shown inthe left panel of Exhibit 2, 1.8mn 16-24-year-olds join the labor force in a typical June as the school year ends. This may have boosted overall payroll growth if a higher proportion successfully found jobs due to strong demand for labor in lower-skilled occupations. For example, if net hiring occurs at the 2019 pace (82% of the nsa change), we estimate it would boost headline job growth by approximately +325k relative to a typical June (66%).

  • The right panel indicates that state-level changes to unemployment insurance availability and generosity are also boosting labor supply. Benefits were curtailed in half of US states (representing 29% of the outstanding job losses since the start of the pandemic) in June and early July. Encouragingly, continuing claims declined more quickly in these states (by roughly 200k relative to the trend in all other states).
  • ADP. Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 692k in June, above consensus expectations for a 600k gain. Additionally, the large reported gain in leisure and hospitality jobs (+332k) is consistent with our view that labor supply constraints eased sequentially.
  • Job availability. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get—surged to +43.5 in June (from +36.9 in May) and is now at its highest level since 2000.

Arguing for a weaker-than-expected report:

  • Employer surveys. The employment component of our manufacturing survey tracker was unchanged (-at 58.4), while the employment component of our services survey tracker decreased (-1.6pt to 54.9), but both remain around early-2019 levels.Encouragingly, the employment component of the GSAI increased substantially (+7.3pt to 68.4).
  • Job cuts. Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas rose by 18%nin June after declining by 33% in May. Layoffs were at the lowest level since 1993.

Neutral/mixed factors:

  • Big Data. High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the May and June survey weeks. While two of the six measures Goldman tracks declined outright (Dallas Fed survey, Google mobility), there were strong gains in the two datasets that explicitly track employee scheduling (Homebase, ADP). These two indicators may more effectively track inflections in reopening categories like restaurants, hotels, and other services.

  • Jobless claims. Initial jobless claims declined during the June payroll month, averaging 396k per week vs. 505k in May. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims remained roughly unchanged between the payroll survey weeks.

FWIW, Goldman estimates nonfarm payrolls rose 750k in June (above the 711k consensus) after rising 559k in May and 278k in April. Labor demand remains very strong due to the reopening and the stimulus, and the arrival of the youth summer labor force and the wind-down of federal unemployment top-ups in some states eased the labor supply constraints that held down job growth in May and April. GS thinks pPrivate payrolls rose 675k, above consensus of +620k.

Goldman also estimates a two-tenths drop in the unemployment rate to 5.6% (in line with consensus of 5.6%), reflecting a strong household employment gain but a further rise in the participation rate. Goldman sees scope for the household measure to outperform relative to headline payrolls, as the former should better reflect the impact of reopening establishments. At the same time, in addition to a vaccine- and reopening-driven rise in labor force participation, the easing of labor supply constraints discussed earlier may have also boosted it as well. This would absorb some of the impact of strong job growth from the perspective of the jobless rate. Goldman also will pay close attention to the number of unemployed workers on temporary layoff, which spiked to a record-high 18.1mn last April but fell to 1.8mn in the May 2021 report. The smaller number of workers left on temporary layoff reduces the scope for the rapid pace of gains seen last summer, but it remains a positive factor relative to the pre-coronavirus pace of job gains.

Finally, Goldman estimates a 0.4% rise in average hourly earnings (above consensus of +0.3%), reflecting continued labor shortages partially offset by negative calendar effects. Coupled with last spring’s waning composition effects, this would result in a further rise in the year-on-year rate from +2.0% to +3.8% (consensus is +3.6%). Wage growth continues to be resilient in the wake of the crisis, reflecting strong labor demand per unemployed worker and pandemic-related delays in job searches. Wages for lower-paid workers have risen sharply in recent months amidst widespread reports of worker shortages, and this imbalance led to further wage hikes in June as well.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/01/2021 - 21:59

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Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super…

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Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super Tuesday primaries have got it right. Barring cataclysmic changes, Donald Trump and Joe Biden will be the Republican and Democratic nominees for president in 2024.

(Left) President Joe Biden delivers remarks on canceling student debt at Culver City Julian Dixon Library in Culver City, Calif., on Feb. 21, 2024. (Right) Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump stands on stage during a campaign event at Big League Dreams Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nev., on Jan. 27, 2024. (Mario Tama/Getty Images; David Becker/Getty Images)

With Nikki Haley’s withdrawal, there will be no more significantly contested primaries or caucuses—the earliest both parties’ races have been over since something like the current primary-dominated system was put in place in 1972.

The primary results have spotlighted some of both nominees’ weaknesses.

Donald Trump lost high-income, high-educated constituencies, including the entire metro area—aka the Swamp. Many but by no means all Haley votes there were cast by Biden Democrats. Mr. Trump can’t afford to lose too many of the others in target states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Majorities and large minorities of voters in overwhelmingly Latino counties in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley and some in Houston voted against Joe Biden, and even more against Senate nominee Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas).

Returns from Hispanic precincts in New Hampshire and Massachusetts show the same thing. Mr. Biden can’t afford to lose too many Latino votes in target states like Arizona and Georgia.

When Mr. Trump rode down that escalator in 2015, commentators assumed he’d repel Latinos. Instead, Latino voters nationally, and especially the closest eyewitnesses of Biden’s open-border policy, have been trending heavily Republican.

High-income liberal Democrats may sport lawn signs proclaiming, “In this house, we believe ... no human is illegal.” The logical consequence of that belief is an open border. But modest-income folks in border counties know that flows of illegal immigrants result in disorder, disease, and crime.

There is plenty of impatience with increased disorder in election returns below the presidential level. Consider Los Angeles County, America’s largest county, with nearly 10 million people, more people than 40 of the 50 states. It voted 71 percent for Mr. Biden in 2020.

Current returns show county District Attorney George Gascon winning only 21 percent of the vote in the nonpartisan primary. He’ll apparently face Republican Nathan Hochman, a critic of his liberal policies, in November.

Gascon, elected after the May 2020 death of counterfeit-passing suspect George Floyd in Minneapolis, is one of many county prosecutors supported by billionaire George Soros. His policies include not charging juveniles as adults, not seeking higher penalties for gang membership or use of firearms, and bringing fewer misdemeanor cases.

The predictable result has been increased car thefts, burglaries, and personal robberies. Some 120 assistant district attorneys have left the office, and there’s a backlog of 10,000 unprosecuted cases.

More than a dozen other Soros-backed and similarly liberal prosecutors have faced strong opposition or have left office.

St. Louis prosecutor Kim Gardner resigned last May amid lawsuits seeking her removal, Milwaukee’s John Chisholm retired in January, and Baltimore’s Marilyn Mosby was defeated in July 2022 and convicted of perjury in September 2023. Last November, Loudoun County, Virginia, voters (62 percent Biden) ousted liberal Buta Biberaj, who declined to prosecute a transgender student for assault, and in June 2022 voters in San Francisco (85 percent Biden) recalled famed radical Chesa Boudin.

Similarly, this Tuesday, voters in San Francisco passed ballot measures strengthening police powers and requiring treatment of drug-addicted welfare recipients.

In retrospect, it appears the Floyd video, appearing after three months of COVID-19 confinement, sparked a frenzied, even crazed reaction, especially among the highly educated and articulate. One fatal incident was seen as proof that America’s “systemic racism” was worse than ever and that police forces should be defunded and perhaps abolished.

2020 was “the year America went crazy,” I wrote in January 2021, a year in which police funding was actually cut by Democrats in New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Denver. A year in which young New York Times (NYT) staffers claimed they were endangered by the publication of Sen. Tom Cotton’s (R-Ark.) opinion article advocating calling in military forces if necessary to stop rioting, as had been done in Detroit in 1967 and Los Angeles in 1992. A craven NYT publisher even fired the editorial page editor for running the article.

Evidence of visible and tangible discontent with increasing violence and its consequences—barren and locked shelves in Manhattan chain drugstores, skyrocketing carjackings in Washington, D.C.—is as unmistakable in polls and election results as it is in daily life in large metropolitan areas. Maybe 2024 will turn out to be the year even liberal America stopped acting crazy.

Chaos and disorder work against incumbents, as they did in 1968 when Democrats saw their party’s popular vote fall from 61 percent to 43 percent.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 23:20

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Government

Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The…

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Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) reviewed no data when deciding in 2023 to keep its COVID-19 vaccine mandate in place.

Doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in Washington in a file image. (Jacquelyn Martin/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

VA Secretary Denis McDonough said on May 1, 2023, that the end of many other federal mandates “will not impact current policies at the Department of Veterans Affairs.”

He said the mandate was remaining for VA health care personnel “to ensure the safety of veterans and our colleagues.”

Mr. McDonough did not cite any studies or other data. A VA spokesperson declined to provide any data that was reviewed when deciding not to rescind the mandate. The Epoch Times submitted a Freedom of Information Act for “all documents outlining which data was relied upon when establishing the mandate when deciding to keep the mandate in place.”

The agency searched for such data and did not find any.

The VA does not even attempt to justify its policies with science, because it can’t,” Leslie Manookian, president and founder of the Health Freedom Defense Fund, told The Epoch Times.

“The VA just trusts that the process and cost of challenging its unfounded policies is so onerous, most people are dissuaded from even trying,” she added.

The VA’s mandate remains in place to this day.

The VA’s website claims that vaccines “help protect you from getting severe illness” and “offer good protection against most COVID-19 variants,” pointing in part to observational data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that estimate the vaccines provide poor protection against symptomatic infection and transient shielding against hospitalization.

There have also been increasing concerns among outside scientists about confirmed side effects like heart inflammation—the VA hid a safety signal it detected for the inflammation—and possible side effects such as tinnitus, which shift the benefit-risk calculus.

President Joe Biden imposed a slate of COVID-19 vaccine mandates in 2021. The VA was the first federal agency to implement a mandate.

President Biden rescinded the mandates in May 2023, citing a drop in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. His administration maintains the choice to require vaccines was the right one and saved lives.

“Our administration’s vaccination requirements helped ensure the safety of workers in critical workforces including those in the healthcare and education sectors, protecting themselves and the populations they serve, and strengthening their ability to provide services without disruptions to operations,” the White House said.

Some experts said requiring vaccination meant many younger people were forced to get a vaccine despite the risks potentially outweighing the benefits, leaving fewer doses for older adults.

By mandating the vaccines to younger people and those with natural immunity from having had COVID, older people in the U.S. and other countries did not have access to them, and many people might have died because of that,” Martin Kulldorff, a professor of medicine on leave from Harvard Medical School, told The Epoch Times previously.

The VA was one of just a handful of agencies to keep its mandate in place following the removal of many federal mandates.

“At this time, the vaccine requirement will remain in effect for VA health care personnel, including VA psychologists, pharmacists, social workers, nursing assistants, physical therapists, respiratory therapists, peer specialists, medical support assistants, engineers, housekeepers, and other clinical, administrative, and infrastructure support employees,” Mr. McDonough wrote to VA employees at the time.

This also includes VA volunteers and contractors. Effectively, this means that any Veterans Health Administration (VHA) employee, volunteer, or contractor who works in VHA facilities, visits VHA facilities, or provides direct care to those we serve will still be subject to the vaccine requirement at this time,” he said. “We continue to monitor and discuss this requirement, and we will provide more information about the vaccination requirements for VA health care employees soon. As always, we will process requests for vaccination exceptions in accordance with applicable laws, regulations, and policies.”

The version of the shots cleared in the fall of 2022, and available through the fall of 2023, did not have any clinical trial data supporting them.

A new version was approved in the fall of 2023 because there were indications that the shots not only offered temporary protection but also that the level of protection was lower than what was observed during earlier stages of the pandemic.

Ms. Manookian, whose group has challenged several of the federal mandates, said that the mandate “illustrates the dangers of the administrative state and how these federal agencies have become a law unto themselves.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 22:10

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The Coming Of The Police State In America

The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now…

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The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now patrolling the New York City subway system in an attempt to do something about the explosion of crime. As part of this, there are bag checks and new surveillance of all passengers. No legislation, no debate, just an edict from the mayor.

Many citizens who rely on this system for transportation might welcome this. It’s a city of strict gun control, and no one knows for sure if they have the right to defend themselves. Merchants have been harassed and even arrested for trying to stop looting and pillaging in their own shops.

The message has been sent: Only the police can do this job. Whether they do it or not is another matter.

Things on the subway system have gotten crazy. If you know it well, you can manage to travel safely, but visitors to the city who take the wrong train at the wrong time are taking grave risks.

In actual fact, it’s guaranteed that this will only end in confiscating knives and other things that people carry in order to protect themselves while leaving the actual criminals even more free to prey on citizens.

The law-abiding will suffer and the criminals will grow more numerous. It will not end well.

When you step back from the details, what we have is the dawning of a genuine police state in the United States. It only starts in New York City. Where is the Guard going to be deployed next? Anywhere is possible.

If the crime is bad enough, citizens will welcome it. It must have been this way in most times and places that when the police state arrives, the people cheer.

We will all have our own stories of how this came to be. Some might begin with the passage of the Patriot Act and the establishment of the Department of Homeland Security in 2001. Some will focus on gun control and the taking away of citizens’ rights to defend themselves.

My own version of events is closer in time. It began four years ago this month with lockdowns. That’s what shattered the capacity of civil society to function in the United States. Everything that has happened since follows like one domino tumbling after another.

It goes like this:

1) lockdown,

2) loss of moral compass and spreading of loneliness and nihilism,

3) rioting resulting from citizen frustration, 4) police absent because of ideological hectoring,

5) a rise in uncontrolled immigration/refugees,

6) an epidemic of ill health from substance abuse and otherwise,

7) businesses flee the city

8) cities fall into decay, and that results in

9) more surveillance and police state.

The 10th stage is the sacking of liberty and civilization itself.

It doesn’t fall out this way at every point in history, but this seems like a solid outline of what happened in this case. Four years is a very short period of time to see all of this unfold. But it is a fact that New York City was more-or-less civilized only four years ago. No one could have predicted that it would come to this so quickly.

But once the lockdowns happened, all bets were off. Here we had a policy that most directly trampled on all freedoms that we had taken for granted. Schools, businesses, and churches were slammed shut, with various levels of enforcement. The entire workforce was divided between essential and nonessential, and there was widespread confusion about who precisely was in charge of designating and enforcing this.

It felt like martial law at the time, as if all normal civilian law had been displaced by something else. That something had to do with public health, but there was clearly more going on, because suddenly our social media posts were censored and we were being asked to do things that made no sense, such as mask up for a virus that evaded mask protection and walk in only one direction in grocery aisles.

Vast amounts of the white-collar workforce stayed home—and their kids, too—until it became too much to bear. The city became a ghost town. Most U.S. cities were the same.

As the months of disaster rolled on, the captives were let out of their houses for the summer in order to protest racism but no other reason. As a way of excusing this, the same public health authorities said that racism was a virus as bad as COVID-19, so therefore it was permitted.

The protests had turned to riots in many cities, and the police were being defunded and discouraged to do anything about the problem. Citizens watched in horror as downtowns burned and drug-crazed freaks took over whole sections of cities. It was like every standard of decency had been zapped out of an entire swath of the population.

Meanwhile, large checks were arriving in people’s bank accounts, defying every normal economic expectation. How could people not be working and get their bank accounts more flush with cash than ever? There was a new law that didn’t even require that people pay rent. How weird was that? Even student loans didn’t need to be paid.

By the fall, recess from lockdown was over and everyone was told to go home again. But this time they had a job to do: They were supposed to vote. Not at the polling places, because going there would only spread germs, or so the media said. When the voting results finally came in, it was the absentee ballots that swung the election in favor of the opposition party that actually wanted more lockdowns and eventually pushed vaccine mandates on the whole population.

The new party in control took note of the large population movements out of cities and states that they controlled. This would have a large effect on voting patterns in the future. But they had a plan. They would open the borders to millions of people in the guise of caring for refugees. These new warm bodies would become voters in time and certainly count on the census when it came time to reapportion political power.

Meanwhile, the native population had begun to swim in ill health from substance abuse, widespread depression, and demoralization, plus vaccine injury. This increased dependency on the very institutions that had caused the problem in the first place: the medical/scientific establishment.

The rise of crime drove the small businesses out of the city. They had barely survived the lockdowns, but they certainly could not survive the crime epidemic. This undermined the tax base of the city and allowed the criminals to take further control.

The same cities became sanctuaries for the waves of migrants sacking the country, and partisan mayors actually used tax dollars to house these invaders in high-end hotels in the name of having compassion for the stranger. Citizens were pushed out to make way for rampaging migrant hordes, as incredible as this seems.

But with that, of course, crime rose ever further, inciting citizen anger and providing a pretext to bring in the police state in the form of the National Guard, now tasked with cracking down on crime in the transportation system.

What’s the next step? It’s probably already here: mass surveillance and censorship, plus ever-expanding police power. This will be accompanied by further population movements, as those with the means to do so flee the city and even the country and leave it for everyone else to suffer.

As I tell the story, all of this seems inevitable. It is not. It could have been stopped at any point. A wise and prudent political leadership could have admitted the error from the beginning and called on the country to rediscover freedom, decency, and the difference between right and wrong. But ego and pride stopped that from happening, and we are left with the consequences.

The government grows ever bigger and civil society ever less capable of managing itself in large urban centers. Disaster is unfolding in real time, mitigated only by a rising stock market and a financial system that has yet to fall apart completely.

Are we at the middle stages of total collapse, or at the point where the population and people in leadership positions wise up and decide to put an end to the downward slide? It’s hard to know. But this much we do know: There is a growing pocket of resistance out there that is fed up and refuses to sit by and watch this great country be sacked and taken over by everything it was set up to prevent.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 16:20

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