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Housing Market Tracker: Active listings barely budge

From the seasonal bottom on April 14 to now — a whole month — total active inventory has only grown by 14,913.

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The rise of active listings in this spring housing market reminds me of a zombie slowly rising from its grave. Yes, we found the seasonal bottom for housing inventory on April 14, but this year’s rise in active listings has been tepid at best.

Here’s a quick rundown of the last week:

  • Total active listings grew 662 weekly, and new listing data is still trending at all-time lows.
  • Mortgage rates fell last week as we started the week at 6.65% and got as low as 6.49% to end the week at 6.55%.
  • Purchase application data rose 5% weekly as the streak of lower rates impacting the weekly data continues.

Weekly housing inventory

Well, the best thing I can say for spring 2023 inventory is that we found the seasonal bottom a few weeks ago. On the positive side, we’re at least seeing inventory rise — some had feared that because new listing data was trending at all-time lows, we wouldn’t see a spring increase in the active listings at all. This doesn’t appear to be the case for 2023.

However, new listing data is very seasonal and we have less than two months left before it starts declining again. I had hoped we would see more active listings before that period, but unfortunately that’s not the case. In fact, this data line has been absolutely crazy.

How crazy?

Last year, from April 22 to April 29, total single-family inventory grew by 16,311 in that one week. This year, from the seasonal bottom on April 14 to now — a whole month — total active inventory has only grown by 14,913.

  • Weekly inventory change (May 5-12): Inventory rose from 419,725 to 420,381
  • Same week last year (May 6-13): Inventory rose from 300,481 to 312,857
  • The inventory bottom for 2022 was 240,194
  • The peak for 2023 so far is 472,680
  • For context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,108,932

According to Altos Research, new listing data rose weekly but is still trending at all-time lows this year. When you consider that a home seller is a natural homebuyer as well, you can see why the housing market broke after mortgage rates went on a roller coaster last year. Mortgage rates went above 6.25%, then declined back to 5% then spiked back to 7.37%. We have not been able to recover from that mortgage rate spike and it has bled into 2023 as well.

Last year, new listing data, while trending at all-time lows, was at least rising year over year. That is no longer the case after the second half of 2022.

New listing weekly data for this week in May over the past three years:

  • 2023: 62,382
  • 2022: 73,515
  • 2021: 71,191

New listing data from previous years for the same week, to give you some historical perspective:

  • 2017: 90,112
  • 2016: 82,621
  • 2015: 98,436
image-29

The NAR data goes back decades and it illustrates just how hard it’s been to get the total active listings back to the historical range of 2 million to 2.5 million. The next existing home sales report comes out this week and we should see an increase in active listings, which have been stuck at 980,000 active listings over the last three months.

NAR: Monthly active listings

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NAR: Total active listing data going back to 1982 

image-32

I often get asked about the big difference between NAR and Altos Research inventory data. This link explains the difference. Overall, inventory data tends to move together, even if different sources are working with other numbers and have a different methodology.

The 10-year yield and mortgage rates

For 2023, one of the most important economic storylines has been the 10-year yield refusing to break below the critical levels I have talked about for months — the level between 3.37%-3.42%. I believed this level was going to be so hard to break under that I named it the Gandalf line in the sand. No matter how crazy things have gotten in 2023, the 10-year yield only broke it once, at the height of the banking crisis. That didn’t last long as we headed right back higher.

As you can see in the chart below, that line in the sand has been tested many times.

image-33

When I talk about mortgage rates, it’s really about where I feel the 10-year yield will go for the year. In my 2023 forecast, I said that if the economy stays firm, the 10-year yield range should be between 3.21% and 4.25%, equating to 5.75% to 7.25% mortgage rates. 

Now if the economy gets weaker, meaning the labor market sees a noticeable rise in jobless claims, then the 10-year yield should break under 3.21%, going all the way to 2.72%. This will take mortgage rates under 6%, and if the spreads return to normal, this can get us below 5% mortgage rates again. Yes, I said below 5% again.

Can you imagine the housing market at that point? We would have much more stability. 

However, for that to happen, jobless claims would need to rise to 323,000 on the four-week moving average. We did have a big jump in jobless claims last week. However, this data line can have some odd quirks week to week, so focus more on the trend and the four-week moving average rather than one week’s data.

From the St. Louis Fed: “Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits increased by 22,000 in the week ended May 6, to 264,000. The four-week moving average also rose to 245,250.”

image-34

Last week, mortgage rates didn’t move much, but as the year goes on, we will be tracking more and more economic data to get clues on the economic cycle and where mortgage rates will be heading. 

Purchase application data

The dynamics of the U.S. housing market changed starting Nov. 9, 2022, when the purchase application data began to react more positively as mortgage rates fell. Since that time, making some holiday adjustments to the data, we have had 17 positive weekly prints versus seven negative prints. Year to date, we have had 10 positive prints versus seven negative prints.

Last week, the weekly data showed a positive 5% print, while the year-over-year data shows a 32% year-over-year decline.

image-35

I view this data line as just a stabilization of the housing demand data, coming off a waterfall dive in 2022. However, this stabilization is critical because of what it has done: It has changed the housing dynamics.

When housing demand collapsed last year, the low inventory didn’t provide a big shield against pricing getting much weaker. Pricing in the second half of the year was going negative month to month, of course, from an overheating start in 2022. Starting from Nov. 9, the entire housing dynamics changed from demand collapsing to demand stabilizing.

This explains pricing getting firmer in 2023 due to the low inventory environment. Purchase apps look out 30-90 days before they hit the sales data, so we don’t have the sharp recovery data we saw during the COVID-19 recovery. However, we do have a good stabilization story here today.

I traditionally weigh this data line after the second week of January to the first week of May, and now that we are in the second week of May, I would say the 2023 purchase apps data is slightly positive, with stabilization for sure, just not a booming mortgage demand market with mortgage rates still over 6%.

The week ahead: Big housing data coming up

We have a jam-packed week with economic data, especially for housing. We have the builder’s confidence data, housing starts and existing home sales. Monday, we also have the New York Fed quarterly credit and debt update. Those charts are my favorites as they show how credit stress in the U.S. today doesn’t look like anything we saw in the run-up in 2008.

Since the foreclosure process has started again, we should be working our way back up to pre-COVID-19 levels. However, 30, 60, and 90-day lates are near all-time lows, and it took many years to build up the credit stress we saw from 2005 to 2008, before the job-loss recession.

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Retail sales come out on Tuesday, which can move the bond market depending on what the report shows. As the year progresses, all these reports will give us more clues to see where the economy is heading. That’s critical since economic data can move the bond market and what can move the 10-year lower or higher drives mortgage rates as well. If mortgage rates head lower, we could see inventory drawn down faster during the seasonal decline period of fall and winter.

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Market Report – 2nd October 2023

The US Non-Farm Payroll jobs report due on Friday is the key data point of the coming week.  Analysts predict payrolls will fall…
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  • The US Non-Farm Payroll jobs report due on Friday is the key data point of the coming week. 
  • Analysts predict payrolls will fall to 150,000 from 187,000 last month and the unemployment rate to hold at 3.8%.
  • Average hourly earnings are expected to increase 0.3% month-on-month.
  • Any deviation from those forecasts can be expected to trigger price moves in all the major currency markets.

US dollar strength continues to be the underlying theme of the currency markets, with EURUSD currently testing the key 1.04823 support level and the GBPUSD downward price channel showing few signs of reversing. The US Non-Farm Payrolls jobs report, due to be released on Friday, is always an important milestone in the trading month, and September’s numbers could offer clues as to how far the current trend has left to run.

US Dollar

The Non-Farm Payrolls employment report, released on the first Friday of every month, often sets the tone for the following week’s trading. After this September, which saw EURUSD and GBPUSD give up 2.48% and 3.70% in value, respectively, Friday’s report is the most important item on the coming week’s economic calendar. The jobs report will be a crucial indicator of whether the rush to the dollar is likely to continue or if a reversal could be about to form.

ISM Purchasing and Services data will also offer an insight into the health of the US economy, and big corporations will kick off earnings season next week. There is also the backdrop of the US Federal budget and a possible government shutdown to consider, but for now, the NFP is the most likely catalyst of the next price moves.

Daily Price Chart – US Dollar Basket Index – Daily Price Chart – 20 SMA

us dollar basket daily price chart 20 sma

Source: IG

EURUSD

The coming week is quiet in terms of euro-specific data releases, but updates from other regions look set to influence the value of euro-based currency pairs. Due on Friday, the NFP number out of the states will very likely impact prices in the largest currency market in the world – the Eurodollar. Before that, on Tuesday, the interest rate decision due to be announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia will influence EURAUD price levels. However, comments from that central bank can also be taken as a guide regarding the mood of the rest of the central bank peer group.

Daily Price Chart – EURUSD – Daily Price Chart – 1.04823

eurusd daily price chart oct 2 2023

Source: IG

EURUSD has started the week trading midrange between two significant support and resistance price levels. To the downside is the 1.04823 support level, which marks the price low of 6th January. That still represents the current year-to-date low for EURUSD, but the tests of that level on Wednesday (1.04880) and Thursday (1.04910) suggest that bearish momentum is still strong.

Whilst the bounce off that level was strong enough for traders to think a trend reversal could be imminent, there is also resistance to further upward moves in the region of 1.06351. That price level relates to the swing-low price pattern formed on 31st May and previously acted as support between 14th and 25th September.

GBPUSD

As with the euro, traders of sterling-based currency pairs will see prices influenced by announcements from other regions rather than UK authorities this week. The run-up to the release of the NFP jobs report could see GBPUSD continue to trade within a range formed by key support/resistance price levels.

Price level 1.23081 marks the upper end of the current price channel and is the low price recorded during the swing-low price move of 25th May. This level didn’t offer as much support as expected when it was breached on 21st September, and with the RSI on the Daily Price Chart at 29.09, there are signs the market is oversold and is due a bounce.

Daily Price Chart – GBPUSD – Daily Price Chart

gbpusd daily price chart oct 2 2023

Source: IG

The downward trend, which started on 13th July, has formed a price channel which has trendlines which have been barely tested over a period of weeks. That leaves plenty of room for the price of GBPUSD to continue to weaken and move towards the major support level of 1.18030, which marks the year-to-date price low of 8th March.

USDJPY

The recent decision by the Bank of Japan to continue with its dovish approach to interest rates has left room for USDJPY to track upwards, guided by the 20 SMA on the Daily Price Chart. That metric remains the key indicator, and until price breaks through that level (currently 148.21), there is room for a test of the multi-year price high 151.946 printed on 21st October 2022.

Daily Price Chart – USDJPY – Daily Price Chart

usdjpy daily price chart oct 2 2023

Source: IG

Monday sees the Japan Tankan Index number for Q3 be released. Analysts forecast that the index will rise to 7, but as with the other major currency pairs, the major news event of the week is the NFP employment report due on Friday.

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    Bonds, Bullion, & Black Gold Battered As Hawkish FedSpeak & Inflation Fears Lift The Dollar

    Bonds, Bullion, & Black Gold Battered As Hawkish FedSpeak & Inflation Fears Lift The Dollar

    Rate-change expectations shifted hawkishly…

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    Bonds, Bullion, & Black Gold Battered As Hawkish FedSpeak & Inflation Fears Lift The Dollar

    Rate-change expectations shifted hawkishly today, after drifting dovishly for the last week, on the heels of the Manufacturing PMI's report which showed the rate of inflation quickened to the sharpest pace in five months and FedSpeak which confirmed Powell's "higher for longer" messaging.

    Source: Bloomberg

    In the US, S&P Global noted

    “Less encouraging was the news on the inflation outlook, as producers’ costs rose at the fastest rate for five months, largely on the back of higher oil prices. These increased costs are already feeding through to higher prices to customers, which will inevitably result in some renewed upward pressure on inflation.”

    Globally, JPMorgan warned that there were further signs of price pressures building in September.

    Input costs and output charges both rose for the second consecutive months, with rates of inflation accelerating for both measures.

    Fed Gov Michelle Bowman again said that multiple interest-rate hikes may be required to get inflation down:

    “I continue to expect that further rate increases will likely be needed to return inflation to 2% in a timely way,” Bowman said in remarks prepared for delivery to bankers in Banff, Canada.

    “I see a continued risk that high energy prices could reverse some of the progress we have seen on inflation in recent months.”

    Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr said the US central bank is “likely at or very near” a level of interest rates that is sufficiently restrictive:

     “I think it is likely that we’ll need to keep rates up for some time in order to get inflation down to 2%. I’m confident that we’ll get there.”

    Traders were buying protection against a less-hawkish Fed. Bloomberg notes significant SOFR flows on the day have been skewed toward dovish protection into year-end, standing to benefit from no more additional rate hikes from the Fed.

    The hawkish shift sent the dollar higher, rallying back up to perfectly tag the stops from Wednesday highs...

    Source: Bloomberg

    The stronger dollar weighed on crude oil prices, with WTI sliding back below $89, as Citi's Ed Morse muttered something about Oil "going back to the $70s" as “demand looks constrained as the pandemic recovery factors continue to ease off and peak transport fuel demand looms, while supply is growing in non-OPEC+ suppliers”

    And gold was dumped to fresh cycle lows, selling off for the 6th day in a row (9th drop in the last 10 days)...

    Source: Bloomberg

    Spot Platinum prices plunged to their lowest since Oct 2022...

    Source: Bloomberg

    Treasuries were sold across the board with the belly  (5s-10s) suffering the most...

    Source: Bloomberg

    Which steepened the yield curve (2s10s) to its least-inverted since the peak of the SVB crisis...

    Source: Bloomberg

    Bitcoin continued to drift higher, spiking above $28,500 intraday

    Source: Bloomberg

    Stocks were very mixed on the day with Small Caps clubbed like a baby seal while Mega-Cap tech outperformed leave The Dow and S&P trying to get back above water...

    Value stocks puked relative to Growth, erasing their recent gains...

    Source: Bloomberg

    'Most shorted' stocks were hammered for the second day in a row with no squeeze attempts...

    Source: Bloomberg

    Utes were the biggest losers today (NEE's plunge did not help) and Tech stocks were the only sector to end green...

    Source: Bloomberg

    That's quite a puke in Utes...

    Source: Bloomberg

    Goldman's data could hint at capitulative flows: CTAs as short $17.8bn of global equities (31st %tile), while In the US, CTAs are short $17.5bn of equities after selling -$59bn over the last two weeks, representing the largest two week selling since Covid!

    And finally, financial conditions continue to tighten, suggesting stocks may have more room to run to the downside...

    Source: Bloomberg

    Is that the 'deflation' that Powell is looking for?

    Tyler Durden Mon, 10/02/2023 - 16:00

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    UC Riverside startup company wins prestigious NIH grant

    Soon after he joined UC Riverside in 2015, Maurizio Pellecchia, a professor of biomedical sciences in the UCR School of Medicine, began working with…

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    Soon after he joined UC Riverside in 2015, Maurizio Pellecchia, a professor of biomedical sciences in the UCR School of Medicine, began working with the UCR Research and Economic Development office to create on campus an incubator space. He envisioned that space as a home for UCR scientists to create startup companies to prove the commercial potential of their technologies. That multi-year effort helped create in the Multidisciplinary Research Building the EPIC Life Sciences Incubator that currently houses young companies in agricultural technology, biomedical technologies, bioengineering, and medicinal chemistry.

    Credit: Stan Lim, UC Riverside.

    Soon after he joined UC Riverside in 2015, Maurizio Pellecchia, a professor of biomedical sciences in the UCR School of Medicine, began working with the UCR Research and Economic Development office to create on campus an incubator space. He envisioned that space as a home for UCR scientists to create startup companies to prove the commercial potential of their technologies. That multi-year effort helped create in the Multidisciplinary Research Building the EPIC Life Sciences Incubator that currently houses young companies in agricultural technology, biomedical technologies, bioengineering, and medicinal chemistry.

    One of the tenant companies in the incubator space is Armida Labs, Inc, a pharmaceutical company founded two years ago by Pellecchia with Carlo Baggio, formerly a senior scientist in Pellecchia’s research group, as its chief technology officer and director of chemical biology. Armida Labs, which is developing a breakthrough pancreatic cancer therapy called Targefrin™, has now been awarded a highly competitive $400,000 Phase I Small Business Innovation Research, or SBIR, grant from the National Cancer Institute of the National Institutes of Health. The grant, of which Baggio is principal investigator, will allow the company to complete important next steps toward the preparation of human clinical trials. 

    “Our goal is to develop the drug Targefrin, which UCR has patented,” said Pellecchia, who holds the Daniel Hays Chair in Cancer Research at UCR. “We want to translate Targefrin from a laboratory discovery to a product that can fight pancreatic cancer, and potentially other cancers, and improve public health.”

    Pellecchia, who is the main inventor of Targefrin, explained that the SBIR grant makes it possible for Armida Labs to gather industry-standard pharmacokinetics and efficacy data, which are expensive to obtain. 

    “Without the grant, our studies would remain at the pre-clinical level,” said Pellecchia, who directs the School of Medicine’s Center for Molecular and Translational Medicine. “The Phase I SBIR grant will allow us to scale up the manufacture of Targefrin and to test this drug in more sophisticated pharmacology studies in models of metastatic pancreatic cancer. These data will help us craft the necessary follow-up studies that will enable filing an investigational new drug application with the Food and Drug Administration, and if successful, begin human clinical studies.”

    The SBIR grant Armida Labs received is a Phase I grant, which means it is a pilot phase grant. Only recipients of a Phase I grant can apply to the NIH for a Phase II grant. 

    “Phase II grants, which can be up to around $2 million, can allow us to apply for an IND,” Pellecchia said. “We expect our pilot studies will take about six months to one year to do. If these studies are successful, we will submit a Phase II application, which will allow us to complete toxicity studies in two animal models.” 

    An investigational new drug, or IND, is a drug that the Food and Drug Administration has not yet approved for general use. Researchers use INDs in clinical trials to investigate their safety and efficacy. Before testing in human subjects, however, researchers need to apply for an IND with the Food and Drug Administration.

    According to Pellecchia, the EPIC Life Sciences Incubator greatly simplified the launch of Armida Labs, the first UCR faculty biopharmaceutical company in the City of Riverside. He said it is a lot easier to start a company in an incubator space than to have to rent an empty lab space somewhere to start doing research.

    “Developing and growing a biotech company requires huge amounts of capital,” he said. “In contrast, a minimal amount of capital is needed to launch a startup in an incubator space. As a result, we were able to get Armida Labs off the ground and thus apply to the National Cancer Institute for seed funding. To go from a pre-clinical laboratory discovery all the way to drug development in patients, similar projects to Targefrin often require as much as $2-5 million. With our new award, we aim to complete valuable steps to attract further investment.”

    The EPIC Life Sciences Incubator, which is managed by Maricela Argueta and directed by David Pearson, aims to be a home for startups like Armida Labs by providing vital technology and equipment, as well as access to UCR’s core technical facilities, faculty, and entrepreneurial development services from the Office of Technology Partnerships led by Associate Vice Chancellor Rosibel Ochoa. It offers advice, makes connections with venture capital firms, administers the incubator space, and provides personnel for coordinating the use of shared equipment. 

    Pellecchia is excited to have launched Armida Labs and acquired the SBIR grant. As the company grows, it will hire more personnel.

    “Nothing would make me happier than to see our UCR research translated into experimental therapeutics. I am also thrilled to create new biotech jobs in Riverside, a region lacking incubator spaces where biotech companies can start and grow,” Pellecchia said. “At UCR, we graduate thousands of students and train many postdocs. But we are really educating and training them only to see them go elsewhere. We want them to stay and thrive in Riverside.”


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