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Here’s Why Covid Hospitalizations And Deaths Are About To Plunge

Here’s Why Covid Hospitalizations And Deaths Are About To Plunge
Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/17/2020 – 11:20

Addressing one of the more pressing topics to emerge from the current wave of covid infections, in a report published this morning Goldman’s

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Here's Why Covid Hospitalizations And Deaths Are About To Plunge Tyler Durden Thu, 12/17/2020 - 11:20

Addressing one of the more pressing topics to emerge from the current wave of covid infections, in a report published this morning Goldman's John Marshall says that fears of overcrowded hospitals are overblown and predicts that "the first wave of vaccinations has the potential to have a significant impact on total US COVID-19 related hospitalizations." More importantly, after modeling the impact of the vaccine rollout, he expects that covid-linked hospitalizations in the next month will tumble, dropping to virtually zero by the end of January.

As the Goldman analyst notes, "while vaccination of the broad population will have important implications for the overall number of cases and limiting ongoing community spread, the targeted roll-out of vaccinations to high-risk individuals is likely to have a rapid effect on key hospitalization metrics."

According to Goldman, hospital utilization has been a key factor driving reopening sentiment, with campaigns to “flatten the curve” in March/April having the stated goal of reducing the potential for the pandemic to overwhelm the hospital system. As such, "the rise in hospitalizations in recent weeks has increased discussions of whether additional restrictions/closures are appropriate and has coincided with sideways trading in stocks levered to the reopening of the economy over the past nine trading days."

However, this is about to change and in the next few weeks, Goldman believes "a rapid decline in hospitalizations driven by the first phase of the vaccine distribution has the potential to be a key inflection point in investor sentiment on the reopening of the economy." These reduced hospitalizations are likely to lead to reduced COVID-19 deaths, "which will boost sentiment even more broadly."

Here are some details on why hospitals will likely see the fastest benefits from the vaccine rollout:

Long-term Care Facilities (LTCFs) are among the first to receive vaccinations: On Sunday, the United States Secretary of Health and Human Services, Alex Azar, noted that he expects “all” residents and staff of LTCFs to be vaccinated “before Christmas”. While the 2-3 million residents and staff in LTCFs are only a small fraction of the 20 million vaccines expected to be administered before year-end, our analysis suggests they have the potential to huge impact on overall hospitalizations.

This is important because such long-term care facilities represent a high proportion of the most vulnerable population and hospitalizations: early in the pandemic, residents of LTCFs represented 18% of all COVID-19 cases despite being less than 1% of the population. To date, Goldman calculates that LTCFs account for about 40% of COVID-19 related deaths.

While over time the development of strict controls and frequent testing has reduced the proportion of cases from LTCFs, the frequency of hospitalization remains high, and according to Goldman around 25% of all US hospitalizations are still attributable to LTCFs, down from 30-40% earlier in the pandemic. While the bank's model considers a variety of other factors to estimate the timing of the impact, it notes that "it's easy to see that eliminating the source of 25% of hospitalizations by vaccinating this group in just a few days can have a profound impact on the burden on the health care system."

Taking a step back from LTCFs, Goldman notes that hospitalizations among the general population related to COVID-19 have grown 1.1% per day over the past month to 115,000. So, if one assumes that 25% of total hospitalizations are from LTCFs and 75% are from other sources, there is still a large and growing number of hospitalizations that are unrelated to LTCFs - needless to say, there is little that a covid vaccine will do for those (which is why Goldman assumes that 75% of the total hospitalizations will continue to grow unabated at 1.1% per day.)

As to why Goldman is so optimistic, it goes to the vaccine effectiveness: as Goldman points out, according to recent studies the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine was 82% effective after the first dose and 95% effective seven or more days after the second dose. For the purposes of modeling hospitalizations, the bank assumed that the vaccine is 82% effective in preventing infections starting 14 days after the first dose. It then found that its timing estimate is not particularly sensitive to changes in the vaccine effectiveness; hospitalizations decline one day later if you assume the vaccine is only 50% effective after the first dose. Therefore, the timing estimate is directly related to the number of days before the vaccine provides protection.

Bottom line: when Goldman ran its model, it found that hospitalizations due to covid begin to decline around January 9th. In other words, for overall hospitalizations to begin to decline, it would take just a 3.3% reduction in daily net hospitalizations from LTCFs (25% of total) to counteract the 1.1% daily growth in “other net hospitalizations” (75% of total). Marshall estimates this occurs after 14 days after 30% of LTCF residents and staff have received one dose of the PFE/BNTX COVID-19 vaccine. Assuming that vaccinations of 30% of LTCF residents and staff occurs by 26-Dec, Goldman expects total US hospitalizations to begin to decline around Jan 9 and drop to nearly zero by the end of the month.

Finally, this being Goldman, the bank lists 11 stocks that are poised to benefit the most from this sharp drop in hospitalizations.

  • Cedar Fair (FUN). Recovery at parks has been choppy relative to other leisure activities as the pandemic continues, but in a post-pandemic world, we look for demand for experiences to resume once consumers feel confident and safe to return. FUN has shown strong expense discipline through the recent uncertainty,plus reiterated expectations to achieve long-term FCF targets and could outline additional cost-cutting measures similar to those of peers.
  • Exxon Mobil (XOM). The oil major remains under-owned due to historical challenges (capital discipline, room for a de-carbonization strategy, unfavorable dividend and earnings execution) ahead of what we believe will be a recovery in crude oil prices. We believe higher energy prices, lower capital spending, growth in Guyana/Chemicals and major cost reductions will drive improved free cash flow vs history.
  • Fleetcor Technologies (FLT). The fleet card provider should benefit from the broader macro recovery given its leverage to SMBs that should begin to spend more in a recovery as well as large businesses that will increase activity.
  • HCA Healthcare (HCA). As patients who have deferred elective procedures visit nhospitals following the pandemic, HCA stands to disproportionately benefit given its exposure to attractive end-markets, and significant investment in high-end service lines that drive market share, revenue and profitability.
  • Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV). 2021 should see a sharp revival in travel and leisure spending following the roll-out of a vaccine. HGV is a risk-adjusted play on arecovery, in our opinion, given higher end exposure and a proven ability to managecash flows — thus adding stability.
  • Hudson Pacific Properties (HPP). The West-coast office REIT remains well npositioned as demonstrated by its strong 3Q results which showed robust leasing spreads and occupancy rates. A return to the office should drive improved ancillary revenues (e.g.  arking, street retail – restaurants) for the company as well, and we believe its development pipeline will likely drive superior growth relative to peers.
  • Kilroy Realty (KRC). West coast office REITs have witnessed similar struggles as their East-coast peers, but KRC’s development pipeline is 90% pre-leased, which mitigates significant development risk. Additionally, the company largely caters to tech and life  science tenants which have been relatively resilient and are well-positioned for a recovery.
  • Ralph Lauren (RL). Apparel retailers have been caught in the cross hairs since the nonset of the pandemic, but we believe RL is well positioned to ride the recovery asit has proactively pulled out of low quality wholesale distribution, while its direct-to-consumer e-commerce channel has inflected to profitability.
  • SL Green Realty (SLG). Concerns about working from home continue to be an noverhang on the New York-based office owner, but with 95% of their propertyleased and the expected opening of One Vanderbilt in 4Q2020 (~70% leased), we continue to see the  potential for an inflection in core FFOPS.
  • Ulta Beauty (ULTA). The beauty retailer and salon continues to navigate a nchallenging environment amidst the pandemic. However, longer term, expect the company to benefit from a better make-up cycle, a stronger digital presence, and market share gains as others struggle even more in the current environment.
  • Zimmer Biomet (ZBH). The medical device maker ranks the highest on our recovery index, with its exposure to Knees, Hips, Spine and Dental (combined 69%of sales) suggesting much of the revenue lost in 2020 relative to pre-COVID trendscould be recaptured over the next 2-3 years.
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Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super…

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Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super Tuesday primaries have got it right. Barring cataclysmic changes, Donald Trump and Joe Biden will be the Republican and Democratic nominees for president in 2024.

(Left) President Joe Biden delivers remarks on canceling student debt at Culver City Julian Dixon Library in Culver City, Calif., on Feb. 21, 2024. (Right) Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump stands on stage during a campaign event at Big League Dreams Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nev., on Jan. 27, 2024. (Mario Tama/Getty Images; David Becker/Getty Images)

With Nikki Haley’s withdrawal, there will be no more significantly contested primaries or caucuses—the earliest both parties’ races have been over since something like the current primary-dominated system was put in place in 1972.

The primary results have spotlighted some of both nominees’ weaknesses.

Donald Trump lost high-income, high-educated constituencies, including the entire metro area—aka the Swamp. Many but by no means all Haley votes there were cast by Biden Democrats. Mr. Trump can’t afford to lose too many of the others in target states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Majorities and large minorities of voters in overwhelmingly Latino counties in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley and some in Houston voted against Joe Biden, and even more against Senate nominee Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas).

Returns from Hispanic precincts in New Hampshire and Massachusetts show the same thing. Mr. Biden can’t afford to lose too many Latino votes in target states like Arizona and Georgia.

When Mr. Trump rode down that escalator in 2015, commentators assumed he’d repel Latinos. Instead, Latino voters nationally, and especially the closest eyewitnesses of Biden’s open-border policy, have been trending heavily Republican.

High-income liberal Democrats may sport lawn signs proclaiming, “In this house, we believe ... no human is illegal.” The logical consequence of that belief is an open border. But modest-income folks in border counties know that flows of illegal immigrants result in disorder, disease, and crime.

There is plenty of impatience with increased disorder in election returns below the presidential level. Consider Los Angeles County, America’s largest county, with nearly 10 million people, more people than 40 of the 50 states. It voted 71 percent for Mr. Biden in 2020.

Current returns show county District Attorney George Gascon winning only 21 percent of the vote in the nonpartisan primary. He’ll apparently face Republican Nathan Hochman, a critic of his liberal policies, in November.

Gascon, elected after the May 2020 death of counterfeit-passing suspect George Floyd in Minneapolis, is one of many county prosecutors supported by billionaire George Soros. His policies include not charging juveniles as adults, not seeking higher penalties for gang membership or use of firearms, and bringing fewer misdemeanor cases.

The predictable result has been increased car thefts, burglaries, and personal robberies. Some 120 assistant district attorneys have left the office, and there’s a backlog of 10,000 unprosecuted cases.

More than a dozen other Soros-backed and similarly liberal prosecutors have faced strong opposition or have left office.

St. Louis prosecutor Kim Gardner resigned last May amid lawsuits seeking her removal, Milwaukee’s John Chisholm retired in January, and Baltimore’s Marilyn Mosby was defeated in July 2022 and convicted of perjury in September 2023. Last November, Loudoun County, Virginia, voters (62 percent Biden) ousted liberal Buta Biberaj, who declined to prosecute a transgender student for assault, and in June 2022 voters in San Francisco (85 percent Biden) recalled famed radical Chesa Boudin.

Similarly, this Tuesday, voters in San Francisco passed ballot measures strengthening police powers and requiring treatment of drug-addicted welfare recipients.

In retrospect, it appears the Floyd video, appearing after three months of COVID-19 confinement, sparked a frenzied, even crazed reaction, especially among the highly educated and articulate. One fatal incident was seen as proof that America’s “systemic racism” was worse than ever and that police forces should be defunded and perhaps abolished.

2020 was “the year America went crazy,” I wrote in January 2021, a year in which police funding was actually cut by Democrats in New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Denver. A year in which young New York Times (NYT) staffers claimed they were endangered by the publication of Sen. Tom Cotton’s (R-Ark.) opinion article advocating calling in military forces if necessary to stop rioting, as had been done in Detroit in 1967 and Los Angeles in 1992. A craven NYT publisher even fired the editorial page editor for running the article.

Evidence of visible and tangible discontent with increasing violence and its consequences—barren and locked shelves in Manhattan chain drugstores, skyrocketing carjackings in Washington, D.C.—is as unmistakable in polls and election results as it is in daily life in large metropolitan areas. Maybe 2024 will turn out to be the year even liberal America stopped acting crazy.

Chaos and disorder work against incumbents, as they did in 1968 when Democrats saw their party’s popular vote fall from 61 percent to 43 percent.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 23:20

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Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The…

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Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) reviewed no data when deciding in 2023 to keep its COVID-19 vaccine mandate in place.

Doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in Washington in a file image. (Jacquelyn Martin/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

VA Secretary Denis McDonough said on May 1, 2023, that the end of many other federal mandates “will not impact current policies at the Department of Veterans Affairs.”

He said the mandate was remaining for VA health care personnel “to ensure the safety of veterans and our colleagues.”

Mr. McDonough did not cite any studies or other data. A VA spokesperson declined to provide any data that was reviewed when deciding not to rescind the mandate. The Epoch Times submitted a Freedom of Information Act for “all documents outlining which data was relied upon when establishing the mandate when deciding to keep the mandate in place.”

The agency searched for such data and did not find any.

The VA does not even attempt to justify its policies with science, because it can’t,” Leslie Manookian, president and founder of the Health Freedom Defense Fund, told The Epoch Times.

“The VA just trusts that the process and cost of challenging its unfounded policies is so onerous, most people are dissuaded from even trying,” she added.

The VA’s mandate remains in place to this day.

The VA’s website claims that vaccines “help protect you from getting severe illness” and “offer good protection against most COVID-19 variants,” pointing in part to observational data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that estimate the vaccines provide poor protection against symptomatic infection and transient shielding against hospitalization.

There have also been increasing concerns among outside scientists about confirmed side effects like heart inflammation—the VA hid a safety signal it detected for the inflammation—and possible side effects such as tinnitus, which shift the benefit-risk calculus.

President Joe Biden imposed a slate of COVID-19 vaccine mandates in 2021. The VA was the first federal agency to implement a mandate.

President Biden rescinded the mandates in May 2023, citing a drop in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. His administration maintains the choice to require vaccines was the right one and saved lives.

“Our administration’s vaccination requirements helped ensure the safety of workers in critical workforces including those in the healthcare and education sectors, protecting themselves and the populations they serve, and strengthening their ability to provide services without disruptions to operations,” the White House said.

Some experts said requiring vaccination meant many younger people were forced to get a vaccine despite the risks potentially outweighing the benefits, leaving fewer doses for older adults.

By mandating the vaccines to younger people and those with natural immunity from having had COVID, older people in the U.S. and other countries did not have access to them, and many people might have died because of that,” Martin Kulldorff, a professor of medicine on leave from Harvard Medical School, told The Epoch Times previously.

The VA was one of just a handful of agencies to keep its mandate in place following the removal of many federal mandates.

“At this time, the vaccine requirement will remain in effect for VA health care personnel, including VA psychologists, pharmacists, social workers, nursing assistants, physical therapists, respiratory therapists, peer specialists, medical support assistants, engineers, housekeepers, and other clinical, administrative, and infrastructure support employees,” Mr. McDonough wrote to VA employees at the time.

This also includes VA volunteers and contractors. Effectively, this means that any Veterans Health Administration (VHA) employee, volunteer, or contractor who works in VHA facilities, visits VHA facilities, or provides direct care to those we serve will still be subject to the vaccine requirement at this time,” he said. “We continue to monitor and discuss this requirement, and we will provide more information about the vaccination requirements for VA health care employees soon. As always, we will process requests for vaccination exceptions in accordance with applicable laws, regulations, and policies.”

The version of the shots cleared in the fall of 2022, and available through the fall of 2023, did not have any clinical trial data supporting them.

A new version was approved in the fall of 2023 because there were indications that the shots not only offered temporary protection but also that the level of protection was lower than what was observed during earlier stages of the pandemic.

Ms. Manookian, whose group has challenged several of the federal mandates, said that the mandate “illustrates the dangers of the administrative state and how these federal agencies have become a law unto themselves.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 22:10

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate…

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate iron levels in their blood due to a COVID-19 infection could be at greater risk of long COVID.

(Shutterstock)

A new study indicates that problems with iron levels in the bloodstream likely trigger chronic inflammation and other conditions associated with the post-COVID phenomenon. The findings, published on March 1 in Nature Immunology, could offer new ways to treat or prevent the condition.

Long COVID Patients Have Low Iron Levels

Researchers at the University of Cambridge pinpointed low iron as a potential link to long-COVID symptoms thanks to a study they initiated shortly after the start of the pandemic. They recruited people who tested positive for the virus to provide blood samples for analysis over a year, which allowed the researchers to look for post-infection changes in the blood. The researchers looked at 214 samples and found that 45 percent of patients reported symptoms of long COVID that lasted between three and 10 months.

In analyzing the blood samples, the research team noticed that people experiencing long COVID had low iron levels, contributing to anemia and low red blood cell production, just two weeks after they were diagnosed with COVID-19. This was true for patients regardless of age, sex, or the initial severity of their infection.

According to one of the study co-authors, the removal of iron from the bloodstream is a natural process and defense mechanism of the body.

But it can jeopardize a person’s recovery.

When the body has an infection, it responds by removing iron from the bloodstream. This protects us from potentially lethal bacteria that capture the iron in the bloodstream and grow rapidly. It’s an evolutionary response that redistributes iron in the body, and the blood plasma becomes an iron desert,” University of Oxford professor Hal Drakesmith said in a press release. “However, if this goes on for a long time, there is less iron for red blood cells, so oxygen is transported less efficiently affecting metabolism and energy production, and for white blood cells, which need iron to work properly. The protective mechanism ends up becoming a problem.”

The research team believes that consistently low iron levels could explain why individuals with long COVID continue to experience fatigue and difficulty exercising. As such, the researchers suggested iron supplementation to help regulate and prevent the often debilitating symptoms associated with long COVID.

It isn’t necessarily the case that individuals don’t have enough iron in their body, it’s just that it’s trapped in the wrong place,” Aimee Hanson, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Cambridge who worked on the study, said in the press release. “What we need is a way to remobilize the iron and pull it back into the bloodstream, where it becomes more useful to the red blood cells.”

The research team pointed out that iron supplementation isn’t always straightforward. Achieving the right level of iron varies from person to person. Too much iron can cause stomach issues, ranging from constipation, nausea, and abdominal pain to gastritis and gastric lesions.

1 in 5 Still Affected by Long COVID

COVID-19 has affected nearly 40 percent of Americans, with one in five of those still suffering from symptoms of long COVID, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Long COVID is marked by health issues that continue at least four weeks after an individual was initially diagnosed with COVID-19. Symptoms can last for days, weeks, months, or years and may include fatigue, cough or chest pain, headache, brain fog, depression or anxiety, digestive issues, and joint or muscle pain.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 12:50

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