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Global Markets Rise On Continued “Stimulus Optimism”

Global Markets Rise On Continued "Stimulus Optimism"

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Global Markets Rise On Continued "Stimulus Optimism" Tyler Durden Thu, 10/08/2020 - 08:16

"Explanations" for overnight market moves have drifted from the merely comical and veered into the surreal. Case in point, this morning Bloomberg writes that "futures contracts on U.S. equity indexes rose, suggesting gains on Wall Street will be extended to a second day on stimulus optimism" and Reuters chimes in that "futures rose for a second straight day on Thursday as bets of a piecemeal fiscal stimulus deal lifted sentiment" while just hours earlier the Financial Times led with this:

In short, whichever direction stocks drift, that's where one can find "stimulus sentiment" at any given moment. The only question we have is what is the direction of causality.

In any case, S&P futures rose for a second straight day after yesterday's 1.7% surge because "there were more buyers than sellers" or whatever, with the S&P now back above the level where the S&P puked on Trump's infamous "no more talks" tweet.

As noted earlier, Regeneron shares rose 4.9% in pre-market trading after Trump said its antibody cocktail was the “key” to his quick recovery. The president said he would authorize its emergency use. Shares of Delta Air Lines, American Airlines, United Airlines and JetBlue Airways were up between 0.8% and 1.7% in early pre-market trading. Coty jumped 5.1% after the cosmetics maker announced the launch of direct-to-consumer websites for Kylie Skin brand in the UK, France, Germany and Australia.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was up 0.5% as of 10:40 a.m. in London after paring earlier gains of as much as 0.8%. Travel and leisure stocks, and the shares of real estate companies led the advance with gains in the sector gauges of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively.

Earlier, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index notched a fourth day of gains led by IT and materials, after rising in the last session. Most markets in the region were up, with Taiwan's Taiex Index gaining 1.1% and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 rising 1.1%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped 0.2%. The Topix gained 0.5%, with Saxa Holdings and Meiji Shipping rising the most.

According to the prevailing narrative, the hot new thing now is for markets to "digest" the prospect of Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden winning the election, coupled with a blue sweep, despite an unexpectedly strong performance by VP Mike Pence last night, where an elusive Kamala Harris repeatedly refused to answer the question whether the Harris-Biden administration would pack the Supreme Court, arguably one of the biggest policy variables for the next four years. 

According to Bloomberg, the "blue sweep" scenario seems to be quelling volatility even as risks from a split in government to a resurgence of coronavirus cases threaten the economic rebound.

"The market is now almost treating Trump’s actions as a sideshow, and is much more firmly pricing Biden in the White House," Mizuho strategists including Peter Chatwell wrote in a note. We wonder if Peter said the same thing in 2016 about Hillary "in the White House." Still, they warned investors against “getting bulled-up on Biden" and the possibility of Democrats winning in the November election, including the Senate. "Recent price action suggests that the market is starting to get ahead of itself, and prematurely becoming too optimistic," they wrote hedging their bets because nobody wants another reputation-crushing repeat of Nov 3, 2016.

Meanwhile, and as the fiscal stimulus charade continues in Congress, Fed central bankers sought further debate on the future of the Federal Reserve’s asset-purchase program, according to the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s Sept. 15-16 meeting. 

Elsewhere, European countries are grappling with a jump in coronavirus infections as concerns mount that some countries may be losing control. France, Spain and the Czech Republic posted record increases in cases, while the U.K. government has drawn up rescue measures for companies struggling to cope in areas forced into local lockdowns.

In rates, Treasuries were firm despite the ramp in S&P 500 E-mini futures, with long-end yields lower by about 2bp. Focus remains on progress toward an economic stimulus agreement, while in Asia, strong appetite for Japan and New Zealand bond sales helped underpin Treasuries. Treasuries 5s30s curve, which approached its YTD high on Oct. 6, is 1.5bp flatter on the day; 10-year yields around 0.77%, richer by less than 2bp on the day and outperforming bunds and gilts. Later today we have the last coupon auction of the week with a $23BN 30-year reopening, bringing the CUSIP's total size to $72b; Wednesday’s 10-year reopening stopped even with the WI yield at the bidding deadline. European peripheral spreads tightened and Greek bonds yields dropped to a record low as support from the ECB and the EU quells investor concerns about the health of the region’s most indebted nation in the face of the coronavirus.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index pared some of its Asia session losses in European trading but was still lower against most of its G-10 peers though it hovered around 1.1750 per euro. Risk-sensitive currencies led by the Australian dollar had the best performance; the pound rose for a second day helped by signs that U.K. and EU officials may be optimistic on their prospects for securing a Brexit trade deal.  The Aussie outperformed the kiwi after New Zealand’s Reserve Bank Chief Economist Yuong Ha said that the bank would rather be aggressive in adding stimulus than do too little too late; the kiwi subsequently fell to a session low versus the U.S. dollar before bouncing back. Yen was steady, holding near a three-week low against the dollar.

In commodities, WTI and Brent maintain an upward trajectory with the former eyeing $40.50/bbl to the upside vs. a low of $39.76/bbl, and the latter north of $42.50/bbl, with the market pricing in supply risk premia as Hurricane Delta looks to make landfall on the Gulf of Mexico tomorrow, whilst Norwegian oil strikes could escalate on Saturday. Regarding the Gulf developments, NHC stated that Hurricane Delta has restrengthened into a Catergory 2 hurricane with hurricane conditions and life-threatening surges expected to begin along portions of the Northern Gulf coast on Friday, whilst BSEE’s estimations yesterday suggest that Hurricane Delta has shut-in 80% offshore crude oil production (prev. 29%) and 49% of natural gas output (prev. 9%) in the Gulf of Mexico – with Shell and Chevron the latest companies to all halt operations in the vicinity. Elsewhere, precious metals stand as beneficiaries of the softer Dollar, with spot gold inching closer towards $1900/oz having while spot silver makes headway above $24/oz.

Looking at today's calendar, expected data include jobless claims. Domino’s Pizza is reporting earnings. There is also an array of central bank officials will be speaking today, including Bank of England Governor Bailey, the Fed’s Rosengren and Bostic, ECB Vice President de Guindos, and the ECB’s Schnabel, Hernandez de Cos and Mersch.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 3,417.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 366.46
  • MXAP up 0.7% to 174.98
  • MXAPJ up 0.7% to 577.58
  • Nikkei up 1% to 23,647.07
  • Topix up 0.6% to 1,655.47
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 24,193.35
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,218.05
  • Sensex up 1% to 40,294.79
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.1% to 6,102.04
  • Kospi up 0.2% to 2,391.96
  • Brent futures up 1.1% to $42.43/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,891.64
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 93.57
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.4 bps to -0.507%
  • Euro unchanged at $1.1763
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.9 bps to 0.582%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 3.3 bps to 0.209%

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg:

  • The Trump administration plans to impose sanctions as soon as Thursday on Iran’s financial sector to further choke off its economy from the outside world, according to people familiar with the matter
  • The approach of Brexit has London confronting the loss of its role as Europe’s undisputed stock-trading hub and, with it, billions of euros in daily trading
  • Spain lowered its target for net debt issuance this year by 12% in an effort to maintain fiscal discipline amid a surge in spending to counter the impact of the coronavirus, Economy Minister Nadia Calvino said
  • Japanese investors bought a record amount of Italian bonds for a second month in August, underscoring the growing appeal of what was once regarded as Europe’s riskiest debt
  • France, Spain and the Czech Republic posted record increases in coronavirus cases, underscoring growing alarm in Europe as it struggles to control the pandemic; Boris Johnson’s government has drawn up rescue measures for U.K. businesses struggling to cope in areas forced into local Covid lockdowns, as ministers prepare to impose tighter rules within days
  • French economic output is plateauing at 5% below pre-crisis levels, according to the Bank of France, adding to signs the country’s recovery from lockdown is faltering

Courtesy of NewsSquawk, here is a quick look at global markets:

Asian equity markets traded mostly positive as the region took its cue from the rebound in the US where all major indices reclaimed the losses triggered by President Trump’s recent announcement to walk away from COVID-19 relief negotiations, as investors found solace from President Trump's calls for piecemeal measures including airline aid, PPP and stimulus checks. ASX 200 (+1.1%) and Nikkei 225 (+1.0%) were higher as Australia extended on its post-budget outperformance with healthcare, tech and materials frontrunning the broad-based gains in the index, while the Tokyo benchmark coat-tailed on the recent favourable currency moves after USD/JPY briefly reclaimed the 106.00 handle. Elsewhere, the KOSPI was kept afloat but with upside capped after shares in index heavyweight Samsung Electronics failed to capitalize on stronger than expected preliminary results for Q3 despite flagging a 58% increase in operating profits, and the Hang Seng (-0.2%) was the laggard in which it breached the 24,000 level to the downside with notable weakness seen in gambling names after underwhelming early gaming revenue numbers from Golden Week holidays with JPMorgan also neutralizing its bullish view on Macau gaming due to poor re-opening trends. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lacklustre following spillover selling from T-notes and amid the mostly positive tone in stocks, although stronger results at the 5yr JGB auction provided some mild support in late trade.

Top Asian News

  • Amazon Says Indian Partner Broke Pact After Ambani Sale Deal
  • Thailand Adds Fresh Tax Breaks to Stimulus to Spur Growth
  • Singapore Scales Up Virus Screening Centers for Migrant Workers

Stocks in Europe have waned off best levels but mostly hold onto mild gains (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%), with somewhat choppy price action experienced since the cash open despite a distinct lack of fresh catalysts. US equity futures also dipped in tandem but remain in positive territory, with NQ narrowly outperforming ES and YM. On the fiscal front State-side, US House Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin are poised for more stimulus discussions, this time on a narrower deal, with White House Chief of Staff Meadows remarking the administration believes there is broad base of support to reach a limited deal on coronavirus relief, while he added that House Speaker Pelosi is sticking to a USD 2.2tln stimulus bill and Senate Majority McConnell is willing to consider a separate airline bill. Meanwhile in Europe, negotiations are to continue regarding the legality of the EU budget and Recovery Fund, which threatens a delay to the swift rollout of the package by the touted January 2021 target. Back to bourses, Spain’s IBEX (+1.0%) outperforms as it’s propped up by its heavy-weight banking sector amid tailwinds from the banking consolidation in the region, whilst the FTSE 100 (+0.1%) resides on the other end of the spectrum on currency dynamics. Sectors are mostly in the green with no real risk profile to be derived; the breakdown sees Travel & Leisure outpacing, but Basic Resources and Autos lag. Meanwhile, the Real Estate sector is supported by British home builders after the UK RICS Housing Survey topped forecasts (61 vs Exp. 40); thus translating to gains in Taylor Whimpey (+3.0%), Barratt Developments (+3.0%), British Land (+2.0%), Ashtead (+2.0%). Moving to earnings, GVS (+3.5%) opened higher by ~7% after posting a 12% increase in Q3 revenue and raising core earnings outlook. Elsewhere, ams (-1.1%) clambered off lows after opening lower by 4.5% amid a 13% decline in revenue and plans to issue new bonds. Finally, easyJet (-0.4%) reversed earlier gains as it expects to report a group headline loss before tax of GBP 815-845mln for FY20, whilst sources stated the group informed the government of the potential need for state loans or finance, although just to keep a prudent approach on finances

Top European News

  • Spain Cuts 2020 Net Debt Sales Target 12% to 115 Billion Euros
  • Europe Battles to Contain Virus as Cases Spike in Spain, France
  • Sexual Harassment Scandal Forces Danish Party Leader to Quit
  • Greek Bonds Rally to Send 10-Year Yields to an All-Time Low

In FX, the Aussie has maintained some post-RBA momentum and is deriving some external impetus from onshore YUAN gains beyond 6.7250 at one stage in the ongoing absence of official PBoC midpoint fixings during China’s Golden Week holidays. Coupled with the Greenback easing from its peaks prompted by US President Trump calling for a suspension of fiscal stimulus talks and the DXY rotating around 93.500, Aud/Usd has rebounded through 0.7150 to 0.7170 ahead of the RBA’s FSR on Friday. Meanwhile, Sterling has also benefited from the Buck’s pull-back with Cable bouncing firmly from just above 1.2900 to 1.2970, but Eur/Gbp is back below 0.9100 on the back of UK Government reports suggesting a little progress on state aid in discussions with the EU, albeit still some distance between the 2 sides on the issue of fishing.

  • NZD/NOK - The next best majors, and perhaps surprisingly given dovish rhetoric from the RNBZ overnight as chief economist Young Ha said the Bank would rather do too much too early than vice-versa and assistant Governor Hawkesby promised more on the FLF in November’s MPS, adding that inflation is expected to be under target for the following 3 years. Elsewhere, Norwegian mainland GDP missed consensus, but Eur/Nok is softer near 10.9000 against the back drop of firm crude prices and Nzd/Usd is hovering close to 0.6600 in wake of improvements in ANZ business sentiment and activity outlooks.
  • SEK/CAD/EUR/CHF/JPY - All narrowly mixed in headline US Dollar reference or Euro cross terms as the Swedish Krona pivots 10.4450, Loonie straddles 1.3250 with some traction from oil awaiting Canadian housing starts and jobs data later today and tomorrow respectively, and Euro roams between 1.1781-56 parameters in advance of ECB minutes. Note also, Eur/Usd looks underpinned by decent option expiry interest from 1.1745 to 1.1735 (1.8 bn) before even bigger expiries on Friday, while comments from de Guindos merely underline the heightened attention on currency developments, but again provide no specifics on tolerance limits. Similarly, the SNB keeps its lines in the sand under wraps, albeit actively intervening as the Franc holds firmly above 0.9200 and a few pips over 1.0800 against the Greenback and Euro respectively. Indeed, latest from chair Jordan simply refers to the fact that monetary accommodation has not really dampened demand for the Chf even though it has not been behaving like a traditional safe haven for some time in contrast to the Yen that is tightly bound around 106.00 vs its US rival as a go to destination for investors seeking a refuge from risk.
  • EM - After bouts of consolidation and respite, it’s back to all too familiar shaky ground for the Lira due to conflicts and incursions involving Turkey in the Middle East and beyond, with Usd/Try resuming its seemingly relentless course to at least test the resistance and psychological defences at 8.0000.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures maintain an upward trajectory with the former eyeing USD 40.50/bbl to the upside (vs. low USD 39.76/bbl) and the latter north of USD 42.50/bbl (vs. low USD 41.86/bbl), with the market pricing in supply risk premia as Hurricane Delta looks to make landfall on the Gulf of Mexico tomorrow, whilst Norwegian oil strikes could escalate on Saturday. Regarding the Gulf developments, NHC stated that Hurricane Delta has restrengthened into a Catergory 2 hurricane with hurricane conditions and life-threatening surges expected to begin along portions of the Northern Gulf coast on Friday, whilst BSEE’s estimations yesterday suggest that Hurricane Delta has shut-in 80% offshore crude oil production (prev. 29%) and 49% of natural gas output (prev. 9%) in the Gulf of Mexico – with Shell and Chevron the latest companies to all halt operations in the vicinity. Over to Norway, the Lederne Union said it has exchanged proposals with associations of oil companies and are planning to continue dialogue today, with 330k BOEPD of production currently shuttered out of the countries ~1.7mln BOEPD total. The Norwegian Oil & Gas Association also said the oil strike is set to impact 966k BOEPD unless conflict with union is resolved by October 14th. Looking ahead, the OPEC World Oil Outlook will be released at 1300BST, with little influence expected in the crude markets given the ever-shifting dynamics possibly proving the release to be stale. Elsewhere, precious metals stand as beneficiaries of the softer Dollar, with spot gold inching closer towards USD 1900/oz having had currently notched a range of USD 1883-1895/oz, whilst spot silver makes headway above USD 24/oz (vs. low 23.72/oz). In terms of base metals, LME copper trades flat within a tight range with eyes on Chilean strikes after two out of five labour at the Candelaria mine rejecting offers, with the mine the first of six mines in the country to have labour talks in the coming months.

Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 820,000, prior 837,000
  • 8:30am: Continuing Claims, est. 11.4m, prior 11.8m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 49.3

Central Bank speakers:

  • 9:15am: Fed’s George Gives Speech on Economic and Policy Outlook
  • 12:10pm: Fed’s Rosengren to Speak at Virtual Event on Economic Recovery
  • 2pm: Fed’s Bostic to Speak on Panel to Rework America Alliance

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Feeling a bit melancholy this morning. At the end of reading my 5 year old daughter a fairly plotless bedtime story about a Vet and lots of minor and silly animal accidents, my daughter suddenly turned to me and said “Daddy am I going to die one day? I don’t want to die”. Before I could think of an answer she said “Are you and mummy going to die one day?” She then got a bit tearful. All that was going through my head was US Open Bryson DeChambeau’s claim that he is going to live to 120-130 years old so I said that I wasn’t sure but whatever happens we’ve hopefully all got a long long way to go and lots of fun first. That seemed to placate her a bit but I can see we’re reaching the age where the first difficult questions start arising. Next stop “Is Santa made up?”.

Talking of the great man (Santa not Bryson), Christmas came early for markets last night after a strong session that more than compensated for the previous day’s declines. Before that let’s review the VP debate overnight. It was a far more civil and traditional debate with supporters from each side likely to be relatively happy with their candidate’s performance. It is unlikely that either Senator Harris or Vice President Pence did anything to alter the trajectory of the race though. President Trump entered the debate down 9.5pts to former Vice President Biden in fivethirtyeighty.com’s national polling averages. In other bad polling news for Trump, overnight a Quinnipiac poll shows the president trailing Mr Biden by 13 and 11 points in Pennsylvania and Florida respectively.

Ahead of the debate, US equities rebounded from Tuesday’s selloff when President Trump called off the stimulus negotiations, with the S&P 500 up +1.74% to its highest level in just over a month. The tweet in the Asian session that we discussed yesterday hinting that Trump remains open to skinny stimulus deals kick started the market back on its upward path. This was given a further boost when Speaker Pelosi signaled that she too would be open to some form of partial measures, notably for the airline industry. To that end the Transportation industry (+2.75%) and Autos (+4.14%) were among the best performers. It was a broad-based advance that saw every industry higher on the day and with cyclicals leading the way. The NASDAQ only performed slightly better than the broader index, rising +1.88%.

Equity volatility also subsided, with the VIX index ending a run of 6 successive moves higher, though futures continued to indicate higher volatility heading into November and the election period. Although the polls are clearer now risk still is elevated around the election period. On this, Henry on my team put out a note yesterday looking at contested presidential elections through history, examining what happened, the market reaction, and the implications for this year. You can see the note here.

Over in Europe, equities held steady, though this mainly reflected the fact they hadn’t sold off the previous day when the negative stimulus news came through, with the STOXX 600 posting a modest loss of -0.12%. Similar to the US, Autos (+1.39%) and Travel & Leisure (+0.82%) were among the sectors up on the day even as the broader index fell.

Asian markets are mostly following Wall Street’s lead this morning with the Nikkei (+1.01%), Asx (+0.93%), Kospi (+0.21%) and India’s Nifty (+1.07%) all up along with S&P 500 futures (+0.23%). The Hang Seng (-0.78%) is trading down likely on overnight news that the US might restrict the expansion of Ant Group’s Alipay and Tencent Holdings WeChat Pay over concerns that the digital payment platforms threaten national security. In other overnight news, Bloomberg has reported that Japan’s PM Suga could call a general election either at the beginning of 2021, or after the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics end in early September.

On the coronavirus, further negative news came through on case numbers as restrictions continued to ramp up across Europe. Starting with the UK, a further 14,173 cases were reported yesterday, while the number of patients in hospital in England rose to 2,944. In Scotland, further restrictions were imposed, including an order that pubs shut for all except takeaway customers in central Scotland until October 25, an area which covers nearly two-thirds of the Scottish population. People living in those areas have also been told to avoid public transport “unless absolutely necessary”. Furthermore, with cases rising in northern England, ITV’s political editor Robert Peston reported that ministers were “likely” to close all hospitality venues there for a period, with the new restrictions likely to be announced on Monday. All the wires are now confirming that fresh measures will be coming on that day. Elsewhere, Italy reported a further 3,677 cases, which is the first time since April that the daily case count has been above the 3,000 mark (albeit on higher testing now), and in Brussels it was announced that all bars would be shut for a month. France saw a record number of new infections, after new cases had levelled off over the last week. Cases are now rising at their fastest rate of the pandemic at over 12,800 per day on average over the last 7 days. See the table below for more signs of this second wave.

Over in the US, schools in Boston paused reopening after the positivity rate rose above 4%, meaning that the next phase of students who were due to return to in-person teaching on October 15 will see that date postponed. The 7-day rolling sum of new cases in the US has remained over 300k for over two weeks now and looks set to continue rising after a pause in September. On the pharmaceutical front, the US FDA has been approached by Eli Lilly for emergency authorisation for a covid-19 treatment it’s developing with Canadian biotech AbCellera Biologics Inc. As the public waits for a vaccine, treatments will be essential to keeping hospital numbers low and thus decreasing the need for mobility restrictions. Meanwhile, President Trump said overnight that an antibody cocktail made by Regeneron was the “key” to his recovery. The company has applied to the US FDA for gaining emergency use authorisation. The company traded up +3.53% in after-hours trading on this.

On the topic of vaccines, President Trump accused the FDA of playing politics with their more stringent vaccine regulations that will make it unlikely for a vaccine to be approved before election day. Given that voting has already started in parts of the country, the window for Trump to receive a polling boost from a completed vaccine is surely closing.

The September FOMC minutes continued to show how much the committee members assumed additional fiscal stimulus would be coming when building their outlooks. With near consensus that if future fiscal support was significantly smaller or arrived significantly later than they expected, the pace of the recovery could be slower than anticipated. The main highlight was the discussion of changes to their asset purchases. “Some participants” indicated their want to assess purchases in order to have them support the central bank’s full employment goals, this would imply either outright increases or possibly longer duration purchases. The minutes did not seem to change the trajectory of markets.

In the fixed income sphere, sovereign bonds sold off, with yields on 10yr Treasuries rising +5.2bps to 0.788% (are back down -1.4bps this morning) after trading in the 0.725-0.790% range the previous day on the volatile stimulus headlines. Ahead of the Fed minutes, European sovereign debt similarly lost ground, with yields on 10yr bunds (+1.4bps), OATs (+1.7bps) and gilts (+1.6bps) also moving higher. Peripheral spreads continued to tighten though, and the spread of Italian 10yr yields over bunds fell a further -0.5bps to a fresh 2-year low.

Moving on, and yesterday saw a number of Brexit headlines once again, though overall they didn’t really add much new information to where we were already at. The main one that sent sterling lower initially was a Bloomberg report saying that the UK planned to quit the trade talks next week if a deal weren’t in sight by then. However, this simply echoed what UK Prime Minister Johnson had said back in early September, in that next week’s European Council meeting on October 15 was the deadline for reaching an agreement, and sterling swiftly clawed back most of its losses. Later on in the session, European Council President Charles Michel tweeted that “The EU prefers a deal, but not at any cost. Time for the UK to put its cards on the table.” And an FT report also tweeted that the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier had told EU ambassadors that he expected Brexit talks to continue after the EU summit on October 15-16. We think if progress is being made both parties will agree to extend talks beyond this point. As I said on Monday I continue to think the positive headlines are increasing and stand by my thesis that it’s moving forward on a 7 steps forward, 5 back type framework.

Just on this, Bloomberg has reported overnight that officials in the EU with knowledge of the negotiations suggest an elaborate choreography is being worked out, in which, despite some level of differences remaining, both sides will find a way to carry on discussions into the second half of October. The report also suggested that both sides are now softening their stance on the two key sticking point of fisheries and state aid.

In terms of data yesterday, there weren’t a great deal of releases, though we did get German industrial production for August, which unexpectedly fell by -0.2% (vs. +1.5% expected), which ended a run of 3 successive monthly gains.

To the day ahead now, and an array of central bank officials will be speaking today, including Bank of England Governor Bailey, the Fed’s Rosengren and Bostic, ECB Vice President de Guindos, and the ECB’s Schnabel, Hernandez de Cos and Mersch. The ECB will also be releasing the account of their September monetary policy meeting. Data releases include the weekly initial jobless claims from the US, Canadian housing starts for September, and the German current account balance for August.

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The Coming Of The Police State In America

The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now…

Published

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The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now patrolling the New York City subway system in an attempt to do something about the explosion of crime. As part of this, there are bag checks and new surveillance of all passengers. No legislation, no debate, just an edict from the mayor.

Many citizens who rely on this system for transportation might welcome this. It’s a city of strict gun control, and no one knows for sure if they have the right to defend themselves. Merchants have been harassed and even arrested for trying to stop looting and pillaging in their own shops.

The message has been sent: Only the police can do this job. Whether they do it or not is another matter.

Things on the subway system have gotten crazy. If you know it well, you can manage to travel safely, but visitors to the city who take the wrong train at the wrong time are taking grave risks.

In actual fact, it’s guaranteed that this will only end in confiscating knives and other things that people carry in order to protect themselves while leaving the actual criminals even more free to prey on citizens.

The law-abiding will suffer and the criminals will grow more numerous. It will not end well.

When you step back from the details, what we have is the dawning of a genuine police state in the United States. It only starts in New York City. Where is the Guard going to be deployed next? Anywhere is possible.

If the crime is bad enough, citizens will welcome it. It must have been this way in most times and places that when the police state arrives, the people cheer.

We will all have our own stories of how this came to be. Some might begin with the passage of the Patriot Act and the establishment of the Department of Homeland Security in 2001. Some will focus on gun control and the taking away of citizens’ rights to defend themselves.

My own version of events is closer in time. It began four years ago this month with lockdowns. That’s what shattered the capacity of civil society to function in the United States. Everything that has happened since follows like one domino tumbling after another.

It goes like this:

1) lockdown,

2) loss of moral compass and spreading of loneliness and nihilism,

3) rioting resulting from citizen frustration, 4) police absent because of ideological hectoring,

5) a rise in uncontrolled immigration/refugees,

6) an epidemic of ill health from substance abuse and otherwise,

7) businesses flee the city

8) cities fall into decay, and that results in

9) more surveillance and police state.

The 10th stage is the sacking of liberty and civilization itself.

It doesn’t fall out this way at every point in history, but this seems like a solid outline of what happened in this case. Four years is a very short period of time to see all of this unfold. But it is a fact that New York City was more-or-less civilized only four years ago. No one could have predicted that it would come to this so quickly.

But once the lockdowns happened, all bets were off. Here we had a policy that most directly trampled on all freedoms that we had taken for granted. Schools, businesses, and churches were slammed shut, with various levels of enforcement. The entire workforce was divided between essential and nonessential, and there was widespread confusion about who precisely was in charge of designating and enforcing this.

It felt like martial law at the time, as if all normal civilian law had been displaced by something else. That something had to do with public health, but there was clearly more going on, because suddenly our social media posts were censored and we were being asked to do things that made no sense, such as mask up for a virus that evaded mask protection and walk in only one direction in grocery aisles.

Vast amounts of the white-collar workforce stayed home—and their kids, too—until it became too much to bear. The city became a ghost town. Most U.S. cities were the same.

As the months of disaster rolled on, the captives were let out of their houses for the summer in order to protest racism but no other reason. As a way of excusing this, the same public health authorities said that racism was a virus as bad as COVID-19, so therefore it was permitted.

The protests had turned to riots in many cities, and the police were being defunded and discouraged to do anything about the problem. Citizens watched in horror as downtowns burned and drug-crazed freaks took over whole sections of cities. It was like every standard of decency had been zapped out of an entire swath of the population.

Meanwhile, large checks were arriving in people’s bank accounts, defying every normal economic expectation. How could people not be working and get their bank accounts more flush with cash than ever? There was a new law that didn’t even require that people pay rent. How weird was that? Even student loans didn’t need to be paid.

By the fall, recess from lockdown was over and everyone was told to go home again. But this time they had a job to do: They were supposed to vote. Not at the polling places, because going there would only spread germs, or so the media said. When the voting results finally came in, it was the absentee ballots that swung the election in favor of the opposition party that actually wanted more lockdowns and eventually pushed vaccine mandates on the whole population.

The new party in control took note of the large population movements out of cities and states that they controlled. This would have a large effect on voting patterns in the future. But they had a plan. They would open the borders to millions of people in the guise of caring for refugees. These new warm bodies would become voters in time and certainly count on the census when it came time to reapportion political power.

Meanwhile, the native population had begun to swim in ill health from substance abuse, widespread depression, and demoralization, plus vaccine injury. This increased dependency on the very institutions that had caused the problem in the first place: the medical/scientific establishment.

The rise of crime drove the small businesses out of the city. They had barely survived the lockdowns, but they certainly could not survive the crime epidemic. This undermined the tax base of the city and allowed the criminals to take further control.

The same cities became sanctuaries for the waves of migrants sacking the country, and partisan mayors actually used tax dollars to house these invaders in high-end hotels in the name of having compassion for the stranger. Citizens were pushed out to make way for rampaging migrant hordes, as incredible as this seems.

But with that, of course, crime rose ever further, inciting citizen anger and providing a pretext to bring in the police state in the form of the National Guard, now tasked with cracking down on crime in the transportation system.

What’s the next step? It’s probably already here: mass surveillance and censorship, plus ever-expanding police power. This will be accompanied by further population movements, as those with the means to do so flee the city and even the country and leave it for everyone else to suffer.

As I tell the story, all of this seems inevitable. It is not. It could have been stopped at any point. A wise and prudent political leadership could have admitted the error from the beginning and called on the country to rediscover freedom, decency, and the difference between right and wrong. But ego and pride stopped that from happening, and we are left with the consequences.

The government grows ever bigger and civil society ever less capable of managing itself in large urban centers. Disaster is unfolding in real time, mitigated only by a rising stock market and a financial system that has yet to fall apart completely.

Are we at the middle stages of total collapse, or at the point where the population and people in leadership positions wise up and decide to put an end to the downward slide? It’s hard to know. But this much we do know: There is a growing pocket of resistance out there that is fed up and refuses to sit by and watch this great country be sacked and taken over by everything it was set up to prevent.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 16:20

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Spread & Containment

Another beloved brewery files Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The beer industry has been devastated by covid, changing tastes, and maybe fallout from the Bud Light scandal.

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Before the covid pandemic, craft beer was having a moment. Most cities had multiple breweries and taprooms with some having so many that people put together the brewery version of a pub crawl.

It was a period where beer snobbery ruled the day and it was not uncommon to hear bar patrons discuss the makeup of the beer the beer they were drinking. This boom period always seemed destined for failure, or at least a retraction as many markets seemed to have more craft breweries than they could support.

Related: Fast-food chain closes more stores after Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The pandemic, however, hastened that downfall. Many of these local and regional craft breweries counted on in-person sales to drive their business. 

And while many had local and regional distribution, selling through a third party comes with much lower margins. Direct sales drove their business and the pandemic forced many breweries to shut down their taprooms during the period where social distancing rules were in effect.

During those months the breweries still had rent and employees to pay while little money was coming in. That led to a number of popular beermakers including San Francisco's nationally-known Anchor Brewing as well as many regional favorites including Chicago’s Metropolitan Brewing, New Jersey’s Flying Fish, Denver’s Joyride Brewing, Tampa’s Zydeco Brew Werks, and Cleveland’s Terrestrial Brewing filing bankruptcy.

Some of these brands hope to survive, but others, including Anchor Brewing, fell into Chapter 7 liquidation. Now, another domino has fallen as a popular regional brewery has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Overall beer sales have fallen.

Image source: Shutterstock

Covid is not the only reason for brewery bankruptcies

While covid deserves some of the blame for brewery failures, it's not the only reason why so many have filed for bankruptcy protection. Overall beer sales have fallen driven by younger people embracing non-alcoholic cocktails, and the rise in popularity of non-beer alcoholic offerings,

Beer sales have fallen to their lowest levels since 1999 and some industry analysts

"Sales declined by more than 5% in the first nine months of the year, dragged down not only by the backlash and boycotts against Anheuser-Busch-owned Bud Light but the changing habits of younger drinkers," according to data from Beer Marketer’s Insights published by the New York Post.

Bud Light parent Anheuser Busch InBev (BUD) faced massive boycotts after it partnered with transgender social media influencer Dylan Mulvaney. It was a very small partnership but it led to a right-wing backlash spurred on by Kid Rock, who posted a video on social media where he chastised the company before shooting up cases of Bud Light with an automatic weapon.

Another brewery files Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Gizmo Brew Works, which does business under the name Roth Brewing Company LLC, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on March 8. In its filing, the company checked the box that indicates that its debts are less than $7.5 million and it chooses to proceed under Subchapter V of Chapter 11. 

"Both small business and subchapter V cases are treated differently than a traditional chapter 11 case primarily due to accelerated deadlines and the speed with which the plan is confirmed," USCourts.gov explained. 

Roth Brewing/Gizmo Brew Works shared that it has 50-99 creditors and assets $100,000 and $500,000. The filing noted that the company does expect to have funds available for unsecured creditors. 

The popular brewery operates three taprooms and sells its beer to go at those locations.

"Join us at Gizmo Brew Works Craft Brewery and Taprooms located in Raleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Find us for entertainment, live music, food trucks, beer specials, and most importantly, great-tasting craft beer by Gizmo Brew Works," the company shared on its website.

The company estimates that it has between $1 and $10 million in liabilities (a broad range as the bankruptcy form does not provide a space to be more specific).

Gizmo Brew Works/Roth Brewing did not share a reorganization or funding plan in its bankruptcy filing. An email request for comment sent through the company's contact page was not immediately returned.

 

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Government

Students lose out as cities and states give billions in property tax breaks to businesses − draining school budgets and especially hurting the poorest students

An estimated 95% of US cities provide economic development tax incentives to woo corporate investors, taking billions away from schools.

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Exxon Mobil Corp.'s campus in East Baton Rouge Parish, left, received millions in tax abatements to the detriment of local schools, right. Barry Lewis/Getty Images, Tjean314/Wikimedia

Built in 1910, James Elementary is a three-story brick school in Kansas City, Missouri’s historic Northeast neighborhood, with a bright blue front door framed by a sand-colored stone arch adorned with a gargoyle. As bustling students and teachers negotiate a maze of gray stairs with worn wooden handrails, Marjorie Mayes, the school’s principal, escorts a visitor across uneven blue tile floors on the ground floor to a classroom with exposed brick walls and pipes. Bubbling paint mars some walls, evidence of the water leaks spreading inside the aging building.

“It’s living history,” said Mayes during a mid-September tour of the building. “Not the kind of living history we want.”

The district would like to tackle the US$400 million in deferred maintenance needed to create a 21st century learning environment at its 35 schools – including James Elementary – but it can’t. It doesn’t have the money.

Property tax redirect

The lack of funds is a direct result of the property tax breaks that Kansas City lavishes on companies and developers that do business there. The program is supposed to bring in new jobs and business but instead has ended up draining civic coffers and starving schools. Between 2017 and 2023, the Kansas City school district lost $237.3 million through tax abatements.

Kansas City is hardly an anomaly. An estimated 95% of U.S. cities provide economic development tax incentives to woo corporate investors. The upshot is that billions have been diverted from large urban school districts and from a growing number of small suburban and rural districts. The impact is seen in districts as diverse as Chicago and Cleveland, Hillsboro, Oregon, and Storey County, Nevada.

The result? A 2021 review of 2,498 financial statements from school districts across 27 states revealed that, in 2019 alone, at least $2.4 billion was diverted to fund tax incentives. Yet that substantial figure still downplays the magnitude of the problem, because three-quarters of the 10,370 districts analyzed did not provide any information on tax abatement agreements.

Tax abatement programs have long been controversial, pitting states and communities against one another in beggar-thy-neighbor contests. Their economic value is also, at best, unclear: Studies show most companies would have made the same location decision without taxpayer subsidies. Meanwhile, schools make up the largest cost item in these communities, meaning they suffer most when companies are granted breaks in property taxes.

A three-month investigation by The Conversation and three scholars with expertise in economic development, tax laws and education policy shows that the cash drain from these programs is not equally shared by schools in the same communities. At the local level, tax abatements and exemptions often come at the cost of critical funding for school districts that disproportionately serve students from low-income households and who are racial minorities.

In Missouri, for example, in 2022 nearly $1,700 per student was redirected from Kansas City public and charter schools, while between $500 and $900 was redirected from wealthier, whiter Northland schools on the north side of the river in Kansas City and in the suburbs beyond. Other studies have found similar demographic trends elsewhere, including New York state, South Carolina and Columbus, Ohio.

The funding gaps produced by abated money often force schools to delay needed maintenance, increase class sizes, lay off teachers and support staff and even close outright. Schools also struggle to update or replace outdated technology, books and other educational resources. And, amid a nationwide teacher shortage, schools under financial pressures sometimes turn to inexperienced teachers who are not fully certified or rely too heavily on recruits from overseas who have been given special visa status.

Lost funding also prevents teachers and staff, who often feed, clothe and otherwise go above and beyond to help students in need, from earning a living wage. All told, tax abatements can end up harming a community’s value, with constant funding shortfalls creating a cycle of decline.

Incentives, payoffs and guarantees

Perversely, some of the largest beneficiaries of tax abatements are the politicians who publicly boast of handing out the breaks despite the harm to poorer communities. Incumbent governors have used the incentives as a means of taking credit for job creation, even when the jobs were coming anyway.

“We know that subsidies don’t work,” said Elizabeth Marcello, a doctoral lecturer at Hunter College who studies governmental planning and policy and the interactions between state and local governments. “But they are good political stories, and I think that’s why politicians love them so much.”

Academic research shows that economic development incentives are ineffective most of the time – and harm school systems.

While some voters may celebrate abatements, parents can recognize the disparities between school districts that are created by the tax breaks. Fairleigh Jackson pointed out that her daughter’s East Baton Rouge third grade class lacks access to playground equipment.

The class is attending school in a temporary building while their elementary school undergoes a two-year renovation.

The temporary site has some grass and a cement slab where kids can play, but no playground equipment, Jackson said. And parents needed to set up an Amazon wish list to purchase basic equipment such as balls, jump ropes and chalk for students to use. The district told parents there would be no playground equipment due to a lack of funds, then promised to install equipment, Jackson said, but months later, there is none.

Cement surface surrounded by a fence with grass beyond. There's no playground equipment..
The temporary site where Fairleigh Jackson’s daughter goes to school in East Baton Rouge Parish lacks playground equipment. Fairleigh Jackson, CC BY-ND

Jackson said it’s hard to complain when other schools in the district don’t even have needed security measures in place. “When I think about playground equipment, I think that’s a necessary piece of child development,” Jackson said. “Do we even advocate for something that should be a daily part of our kids’ experience when kids’ safety isn’t being funded?”

Meanwhile, the challenges facing administrators 500-odd miles away at Atlanta Public Schools are nothing if not formidable: The district is dealing with chronic absenteeism among half of its Black students, many students are experiencing homelessness, and it’s facing a teacher shortage.

At the same time, Atlanta is showering corporations with tax breaks. The city has two bodies that dole them out: the Development Authority of Fulton County, or DAFC, and Invest Atlanta, the city’s economic development agency. The deals handed out by the two agencies have drained $103.8 million from schools from fiscal 2017 to 2022, according to Atlanta school system financial statements.

What exactly Atlanta and other cities and states are accomplishing with tax abatement programs is hard to discern. Fewer than a quarter of companies that receive breaks in the U.S. needed an incentive to invest, according to a 2018 study by the Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, a nonprofit research organization.

This means that at least 75% of companies received tax abatements when they’re not needed – with communities paying a heavy price for economic development that sometimes provides little benefit.

In Kansas City, for example, there’s no guarantee that the businesses that do set up shop after receiving a tax abatement will remain there long term. That’s significant considering the historic border war between the Missouri and Kansas sides of Kansas City – a competition to be the most generous to the businesses, said Jason Roberts, president of the Kansas City Federation of Teachers and School-Related Personnel. Kansas City, Missouri, has a 1% income tax on people who work in the city, so it competes for as many workers as possible to secure that earnings tax, Roberts said.

Under city and state tax abatement programs, companies that used to be in Kansas City have since relocated. The AMC Theaters headquarters, for example, moved from the city’s downtown to Leawood, Kansas, about a decade ago, garnering some $40 million in Promoting Employment Across Kansas tax incentives.

Roberts said that when one side’s financial largesse runs out, companies often move across the state line – until both states decided in 2019 that enough was enough and declared a cease-fire.

But tax breaks for other businesses continue. “Our mission is to grow the economy of Kansas City, and application of tools such as tax exemptions are vital to achieving that mission, said Jon Stephens, president and CEO of Port KC, the Kansas City Port Authority. The incentives speed development, and providing them "has resulted in growth choosing KC versus other markets,” he added.

In Atlanta, those tax breaks are not going to projects in neighborhoods that need help attracting development. They have largely been handed out to projects that are in high demand areas of the city, said Julian Bene, who served on Invest Atlanta’s board from 2010 to 2018. In 2019, for instance, the Fulton County development authority approved a 10-year, $16 million tax abatement for a 410-foot-tall, 27,000-square-foot tower in Atlanta’s vibrant Midtown business district. The project included hotel space, retail space and office space that is now occupied by Google and Invesco.

In 2021, a developer in Atlanta pulled its request for an $8 million tax break to expand its new massive, mixed-use Ponce City Market development in the trendy Beltline neighborhood with an office tower and apartment building. Because of community pushback, the developer knew it likely did not have enough votes from the commission for approval, Bene said. After a second try for $5 million in lower taxes was also rejected, the developer went ahead and built the project anyway.

Invest Atlanta has also turned down projects in the past, Bene said. Oftentimes, after getting rejected, the developer goes back to the landowner and asks for a better price to buy the property to make their numbers work, because it was overvalued at the start.

Trouble in Philadelphia

On Thursday, Oct. 26, 2023, an environmental team was preparing Southwark School in Philadelphia for the winter cold. While checking an attic fan, members of the team saw loose dust on top of flooring that contained asbestos. The dust that certainly was blowing into the floors below could contain the cancer-causing agent. Within a day, Southwark was closed – the seventh Philadelphia school temporarily shuttered since the previous academic year because of possible asbestos contamination.

A 2019 inspection of the John L Kinsey school in Philadelphia found asbestos in plaster walls, floor tiles, radiator insulation and electrical panels. Asbestos is a major problem for Philadelphia’s public schools. The district needs $430 million to clean up the asbestos, lead, and other environmental hazards that place the health of students, teachers and staff at risk. And that is on top of an additional $2.4 billion to fix failing and damaged buildings.

Yet the money is not available. Matthew Stem, a former district official, testified in a 2023 lawsuit about financing of Pennsylvania schools that the environmental health risks cannot be addressed until an emergency like at Southwark because “existing funding sources are not sufficient to remediate those types of issues.”

Meanwhile, the city keeps doling out abatements, draining money that could have gone toward making Philadelphia schools safer. In the fiscal year ending June 2022, such tax breaks cost the school district $118 million – more than 25% of the total amount needed to remove the asbestos and other health dangers. These abatements take 31 years to break even, according to the city’s own scenario impact analyses.

Huge subsets of the community – primarily Black, Brown, poor or a combination – are being “drastically impacted” by the exemptions and funding shortfalls for the school district, said Kendra Brooks, a Philadelphia City Council member. Schools and students are affected by mold, asbestos and lead, and crumbling infrastructure, as well as teacher and staffing shortages – including support staff, social workers and psychologists.

More than half the district’s schools that lacked adequate air conditioning – 87 schools – had to go to half days during the first week of the 2023 school year because of extreme heat. Poor heating systems also leave the schools cold in the winter. And some schools are overcrowded, resulting in large class sizes, she said.

Front of a four-story brick school building with tall windows, some with air-conditioners
Horace Furness High School in Philadelphia, where hot summers have temporarily closed schools that lack air conditioning. Nick-philly/Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

Teachers and researchers agree that a lack of adequate funding undermines educational opportunities and outcomes. That’s especially true for children living in poverty. A 2016 study found that a 10% increase in per-pupil spending each year for all 12 years of public schooling results in nearly one-third of a year of more education, 7.7% higher wages and a 3.2% reduction in annual incidence of adult poverty. The study estimated that a 21.7% increase could eliminate the high school graduation gap faced by children from low-income families.

More money for schools leads to more education resources for students and their teachers. The same researchers found that spending increases were associated with reductions in student-to-teacher ratios, increases in teacher salaries and longer school years. Other studies yielded similar results: School funding matters, especially for children already suffering the harms of poverty.

While tax abatements themselves are generally linked to rising property values, the benefits are not evenly distributed. In fact, any expansion of the tax base due to new property construction tends to be outside of the county granting the tax abatement. For families in school districts with the lost tax revenues, their neighbors’ good fortune likely comes as little solace. Meanwhile, a poorly funded education system is less likely to yield a skilled and competitive workforce, creating longer-term economic costs that make the region less attractive for businesses and residents.

“There’s a head-on collision here between private gain and the future quality of America’s workforce,” said Greg LeRoy, executive director at Good Jobs First, a Washington, D.C., advocacy group that’s critical of tax abatement and tracks the use of economic development subsidies.

Three-story school building with police officers out front and traffic lights in the foreground
Roxborough High School in Philadelphia. AP Photo/Matt Rourke

As funding dwindles and educational quality declines, additional families with means often opt for alternative educational avenues such as private schooling, home-schooling or moving to a different school district, further weakening the public school system.

Throughout the U.S., parents with the power to do so demand special arrangements, such as selective schools or high-track enclaves that hire experienced, fully prepared teachers. If demands aren’t met, they leave the district’s public schools for private schools or for the suburbs. Some parents even organize to splinter their more advantaged, and generally whiter, neighborhoods away from the larger urban school districts.

Those parental demands – known among scholars as “opportunity hoarding” – may seem unreasonable from the outside, but scarcity breeds very real fears about educational harms inflicted on one’s own children. Regardless of who’s to blame, the children who bear the heaviest burden of the nation’s concentrated poverty and racialized poverty again lose out.

Rethinking in Philadelphia and Riverhead

Americans also ask public schools to accomplish Herculean tasks that go far beyond the education basics, as many parents discovered at the onset of the pandemic when schools closed and their support for families largely disappeared.

A school serving students who endure housing and food insecurity must dedicate resources toward children’s basic needs and trauma. But districts serving more low-income students spend less per student on average, and almost half the states have regressive funding structures.

Facing dwindling resources for schools, several cities have begun to rethink their tax exemption programs.

The Philadelphia City Council recently passed a scale-back on a 10-year property tax abatement by decreasing the percentage of the subsidy over that time. But even with that change, millions will be lost to tax exemptions that could instead be invested in cash-depleted schools. “We could make major changes in our schools’ infrastructure, curriculum, staffing, staffing ratios, support staff, social workers, school psychologists – take your pick,” Brooks said.

Other cities looking to reform tax abatement programs are taking a different approach. In Riverhead, New York, on Long Island, developers or project owners can be granted exemptions on their property tax and allowed instead to shell out a far smaller “payment in lieu of taxes,” or PILOT. When the abatement ends, most commonly after 10 years, the businesses then will pay full property taxes.

At least, that’s the idea, but the system is far from perfect. Beneficiaries of the PILOT program have failed to pay on time, leaving the school board struggling to fill a budget hole. Also, the payments are not equal to the amount they would receive for property taxes, with millions of dollars in potential revenue over a decade being cut to as little as a few hundred thousand. On the back end, if a business that’s subsidized with tax breaks fails after 10 years, the projected benefits never emerge.

And when the time came to start paying taxes, developers have returned to the city’s Industrial Development Agency with hat in hand, asking for more tax breaks. A local for-profit aquarium, for example, was granted a 10-year PILOT program break by Riverhead in 1999; it has received so many extensions that it is not scheduled to start paying full taxes until 2031 – 22 years after originally planned.

Kansas City border politics

Like many cities, Kansas City has a long history of segregation, white flight and racial redlining, said Kathleen Pointer, senior policy strategist for Kansas City Public Schools.

James Elementary in Kansas City, Mo. Danielle McLean, CC BY-ND

Troost Avenue, where the Kansas City Public Schools administrative office is located, serves as the city’s historic racial dividing line, with wealthier white families living in the west and more economically disadvantaged people of color in the east. Most of the district’s schools are located east of Troost, not west.

Students on the west side “pretty much automatically funnel into the college preparatory middle school and high schools,” said The Federation of Teachers’ Roberts. Those schools are considered signature schools that are selective and are better taken care of than the typical neighborhood schools, he added.

The school district’s tax levy was set by voters in 1969 at 3.75%. But successive attempts over the next few decades to increase the levy at the ballot box failed. During a decadeslong desegregation lawsuit that was eventually resolved through a settlement agreement in the 1990s, a court raised the district’s levy rate to 4.96% without voter approval. The levy has remained at the same 4.96% rate since.

Meanwhile, Kansas City is still distributing 20-year tax abatements to companies and developers for projects. The district calculated that about 92% of the money that was abated within the school district’s boundaries was for projects within the whiter west side of the city, Pointer said.

“Unfortunately, we can’t pick or choose where developers build,” said Meredith Hoenes, director of communications for Port KC. “We aren’t planning and zoning. Developers typically have plans in place when they knock on our door.”

In Kansas City, several agencies administer tax incentives, allowing developers to shop around to different bodies to receive one. Pointer said he believes the Port Authority is popular because they don’t do a third-party financial analysis to prove that the developers need the amount that they say they do.

With 20-year abatements, a child will start pre-K and graduate high school before seeing the benefits of a property being fully on the tax rolls, Pointer said. Developers, meanwhile, routinely threaten to build somewhere else if they don’t get the incentive, she said.

In 2020, BlueScope Construction, a company that had received tax incentives for nearly 20 years and was about to roll off its abatement, asked for another 13 years and threatened to move to another state if it didn’t get it. At the time, the U.S. was grappling with a racial reckoning following the murder of George Floyd, who was killed by a Minneapolis police officer.

“That was a moment for Kansas City Public Schools where we really drew a line in the sand and talked about incentives as an equity issue,” Pointer said.

After the district raised the issue – tying the incentives to systemic racism – the City Council rejected BlueScope’s bid and, three years later, it’s still in Kansas City, fully on the tax rolls, she said. BlueScope did not return multiple requests for comment.

Recently, a multifamily housing project was approved for a 20-year tax abatement by the Port Authority of Kansas City at Country Club Plaza, an outdoor shopping center in an affluent part of the city. The housing project included no affordable units. “This project was approved without any independent financial analysis proving that it needed that subsidy,” Pointer said.

All told, the Kansas City Public Schools district faces several shortfalls beyond the $400 million in deferred maintenance, Superintendent Jennifer Collier said. There are staffing shortages at all positions: teachers, paraprofessionals and support staff. As in much of the U.S., the cost of housing is surging. New developments that are being built do not include affordable housing, or when they do, the units are still out of reach for teachers.

That’s making it harder for a district that already loses about 1 in 5 of its teachers each year to keep or recruit new ones, who earn an average of only $46,150 their first year on the job, Collier said.

East Baton Rouge and the industrial corridor

It’s impossible to miss the tanks, towers, pipes and industrial structures that incongruously line Baton Rouge’s Scenic Highway landscape. They’re part of Exxon Mobil Corp.’s campus, home of the oil giant’s refinery in addition to chemical and plastics plants.

Aerial view of industrial buildings along a river
Exxon Mobil Corp.’s Baton Rouge campus occupies 3.28 square miles. AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

Sitting along the Mississippi River, the campus has been a staple of Louisiana’s capital for over 100 years. It’s where 6,000 employees and contractors who collectively earn over $400 million annually produce 522,000 barrels of crude oil per day when at full capacity, as well as the annual production and manufacture of 3 billion pounds of high-density polyethylene and polypropylene and 6.6 billion pounds of petrochemical products. The company posted a record-breaking $55.7 billion in profits in 2022 and $36 billion in 2023.

Across the street are empty fields and roads leading into neighborhoods that have been designated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture as a low-income food desert. A mile drive down the street to Route 67 is a Dollar General, fast-food restaurants, and tiny, rundown food stores. A Hi Nabor Supermarket is 4 miles away.

East Baton Rouge Parish’s McKinley High School, a 12-minute drive from the refinery, serves a student body that is about 80% Black and 85% poor. The school, which boasts famous alums such as rapper Kevin Gates, former NBA player Tyrus Thomas and Presidential Medal of Freedom recipient Gardner C. Taylor, holds a special place in the community, but it has been beset by violence and tragedy lately. Its football team quarterback, who was killed days before graduation in 2017, was among at least four of McKinley’s students who have been shot or murdered over the past six years.

The experience is starkly different at some of the district’s more advantaged schools, including its magnet programs open to high-performing students.

Black-and-white outline of Louisiana showing the parishes, with one, near the bottom right, filled in red
East Baton Rouge Parish, marked in red, includes an Exxon Mobil Corp. campus and the city of Baton Rouge. David Benbennick/Wikimedia

Baton Rouge is a tale of two cities, with some of the worst outcomes in the state for education, income and mortality, and some of the best outcomes. “It was only separated by sometimes a few blocks,” said Edgar Cage, the lead organizer for the advocacy group Together Baton Rouge. Cage, who grew up in the city when it was segregated by Jim Crow laws, said the root cause of that disparity was racism.

“Underserved kids don’t have a path forward” in East Baton Rouge public schools, Cage said.

A 2019 report from the Urban League of Louisiana found that economically disadvantaged African American and Hispanic students are not provided equitable access to high-quality education opportunities. That has contributed to those students underperforming on standardized state assessments, such as the LEAP exam, being unprepared to advance to higher grades and being excluded from high-quality curricula and instruction, as well as the highest-performing schools and magnet schools.

“Baton Rouge is home to some of the highest performing schools in the state,” according to the report. “Yet the highest performing schools and schools that have selective admissions policies often exclude disadvantaged students and African American and Hispanic students.”

Dawn Collins, who served on the district’s school board from 2016 to 2022, said that with more funding, the district could provide more targeted interventions for students who were struggling academically or additional support to staff so they can better assist students with greater needs.

But for decades, Louisiana’s Industrial Ad Valorem Tax Exemption Program, or ITEP, allowed for 100% property tax exemptions for industrial manufacturing facilities, said Erin Hansen, the statewide policy analyst at Together Louisiana, a network of 250 religious and civic organizations across the state that advocates for grassroots issues, including tax fairness.

The ITEP program was created in the 1930s through a state constitutional amendment, allowing companies to bypass a public vote and get approval for the exemption through the governor-appointed Board of Commerce and Industry, Hansen said. For over 80 years, that board approved nearly all applications that it received, she said.

Since 2000, Louisiana has granted a total of $35 billion in corporate property tax breaks for 12,590 projects.

Louisiana’s executive order

A few efforts to reform the program over the years have largely failed. But in 2016, Gov. John Bel Edwards signed an executive order that slightly but importantly tweaked the system. On top of the state board vote, the order gave local taxing bodies – such as school boards, sheriffs and parish or city councils – the ability to vote on their own individual portions of the tax exemptions. And in 2019 the East Baton Rouge Parish School Board exercised its power to vote down an abatement.

Throughout the U.S., school boards’ power over the tax abatements that affect their budgets vary, and in some states, including Georgia, Kansas, Nevada, New Jersey and South Carolina, school boards lack any formal ability to vote or comment on tax abatement deals that affect them.

Edwards’ executive order also capped the maximum exemption at 80% and tightened the rules so routine capital investments and maintenance were no longer eligible, Hansen said. A requirement concerning job creation was also put in place.

Concerned residents and activists, led by Together Louisiana and sister group Together Baton Rouge, rallied around the new rules and pushed back against the billion-dollar corporation taking more tax money from the schools. In 2019, the campaign worked: the school board rejected a $2.9 million property tax break bid by Exxon Mobil.

After the decision, Exxon Mobil reportedly described the city as “unpredictable.”

However, members of the business community have continued to lobby for the tax breaks, and they have pushed back against further rejections. In fact, according to Hansen, loopholes were created during the rulemaking process around the governor’s executive order that allowed companies to weaken its effectiveness.

In total, 223 Exxon Mobil projects worth nearly $580 million in tax abatements have been granted in the state of Louisiana under the ITEP program since 2000.

“ITEP is needed to compete with other states – and, in ExxonMobil’s case, other countries,” according to Exxon Mobil spokesperson Lauren Kight.

She pointed out that Exxon Mobil is the largest property taxpayer for the EBR school system, paying more than $46 million in property taxes in EBR parish in 2022 and another $34 million in sales taxes.

A new ITEP contract won’t decrease this existing tax revenue, Kight added. “Losing out on future projects absolutely will.”

The East Baton Rouge Parish School Board has continued to approve Exxon Mobil abatements, passing $46.9 million between 2020 and 2022. Between 2017 and 2023, the school district has lost $96.3 million.

Taxes are highest when industrial buildings are first built. Industrial property comes onto the tax rolls at 40% to 50% of its original value in Louisiana after the initial 10-year exemption, according to the Ascension Economic Development Corp.

Exxon Mobil received its latest tax exemption, $8.6 million over 10 years – an 80% break – in October 2023 for $250 million to install facilities at the Baton Rouge complex that purify isopropyl alcohol for microchip production and that create a new advanced recycling facility, allowing the company to address plastic waste. The project created zero new jobs.

The school board approved it by a 7-2 vote after a long and occasionally contentious board meeting.

“Does it make sense for Louisiana and other economically disadvantaged states to kind of compete with each other by providing tax incentives to mega corporations like Exxon Mobil?” said EBR School Board Vice President Patrick Martin, who voted for the abatement. “Probably, in a macro sense, it does not make a lot of sense. But it is the program that we have.”

Obviously, Exxon Mobil benefits, he said. “The company gets a benefit in reducing the property taxes that they would otherwise pay on their industrial activity that adds value to that property.” But the community benefits from the 20% of the property taxes that are not exempted, he said.

“I believe if we don’t pass it, over time the investments will not come and our district as a whole will have less money,” he added.

In 2022, a year when Exxon Mobil made a record $55.7 billion, the company asked for a 10-year, 80% property tax break from the cash-starved East Baton Rouge Parish school district. A lively debate ensued.

Meanwhile, the district’s budgetary woes are coming to a head. Bus drivers staged a sickout at the start of the school year, refusing to pick up students – in protest of low pay and not having buses equipped with air conditioning amid a heat wave. The district was forced to release students early, leaving kids stranded without a ride to school, before it acquiesced and provided the drivers and other staff one-time stipends and purchased new buses with air conditioning.

The district also agreed to reestablish transfer points as a temporary response to the shortages. But that transfer-point plan has historically resulted in students riding on the bus for hours and occasionally missing breakfast when the bus arrives late, according to Angela Reams-Brown, president of the East Baton Rouge Federation of Teachers. The district plans to purchase or lease over 160 buses and solve its bus driver shortage next year, but the plan could lead to a budget crisis.

A teacher shortage looms as well, because the district is paying teachers below the regional average. At the school board meeting, Laverne Simoneaux, an ELL specialist at East Baton Rouge’s Woodlawn Elementary, said she was informed that her job was not guaranteed next year since she’s being paid through federal COVID-19 relief funds. By receiving tax exemptions, Exxon Mobil was taking money from her salary to deepen their pockets, she said.

A young student in the district told the school board that the money could provide better internet access or be used to hire someone to pick up the glass and barbed wire in the playground. But at least they have a playground – Hayden Crockett, a seventh grader at Sherwood Middle Academic Magnet School, noted that his sister’s elementary school lacked one.

“If it wasn’t in the budget to fund playground equipment, how can it also be in the budget to give one of the most powerful corporations in the world a tax break?” Crockett said. “The math just ain’t mathing.”

Christine Wen worked for the nonprofit organization Good Jobs First from June 2019 to May 2022 where she helped collect tax abatement data.

Nathan Jensen has received funding from the John and Laura Arnold Foundation, the Smith Richardson Foundation, the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation and the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. He is a Senior Fellow at the Niskanen Center.

Danielle McLean and Kevin Welner do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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