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GBP/USD extends losses on mixed UK data

UK retail sales improve, PMIs remain in contraction The British pound is in negative territory after two days of losses. In the European session, GBP/USD…

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  • UK retail sales improve, PMIs remain in contraction

The British pound is in negative territory after two days of losses. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2245, down 0.40%. The struggling pound is down 1.1% this week and is trading at its lowest levels since late March.

UK retail sales improve, PMIs mixed

It is a busy day on the data calendar for UK releases. Retail sales rose in August by 0.4% m/m, following a 1.1% decline in July and was just shy of the market consensus of 0.5%. The sharp decline in July was largely due to unusually wet weather. On an annual basis, retail sales fell by 1.4%, compared to -3.1% in July. Consumer spending has been in a nasty rut, as annualized retail sales have now declined for 17 straight months. The silver lining was that the -1.4% drop marked the slowest pace of contraction in the current streak.

The September PMIs were a mixed bag. The Services PMI slowed to 47.2 in September, down from 49.5 in August and missing the consensus estimate of 49.2. This marked a second straight deceleration and the sharpest contraction since January 2021. The Manufacturing PMI increased to 44.2 in September, up from 43.0 in August and above the consensus estimate of 43.0.

The decline in activity in both services and manufacturing points to a UK economy that continues to cool. The Bank of England, which held interest rates on Thursday, will be hoping that the slowdown translates into lower inflation and that it can continue to hold interest rates.

UK consumer confidence remains low, but there was a bit of an improvement in September. The GfK consumer confidence index rose to -21, up from -25 in August and beating the consensus estimate of -27. This was the highest reading since January 2022, but the economy has a long way to go before consumers show optimism about the economic outlook.

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GBP/USD Technical

  • GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2267. The next support level is 1.2156
  • There is resistance at 1.2325 and 1.2436

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Unlocking secrets of immune system proteins: A potential path to new treatments

In the intricate dance of our body’s defenses against harmful invaders, certain immune system proteins play pivotal roles. New research from the Bridge…

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In the intricate dance of our body’s defenses against harmful invaders, certain immune system proteins play pivotal roles. New research from the Bridge Institute at the USC Michelson Center for Convergent Bioscience, in collaboration with international teams from India, Australia and Switzerland, has shed light on these proteins.

Credit: Jagannath Maharana/IIT Kanpur

In the intricate dance of our body’s defenses against harmful invaders, certain immune system proteins play pivotal roles. New research from the Bridge Institute at the USC Michelson Center for Convergent Bioscience, in collaboration with international teams from India, Australia and Switzerland, has shed light on these proteins.

The work potentially paves the way for innovative treatments for a range of diseases, including severe cases of COVID-19, rheumatoid arthritis, neurodegenerative diseases and cancer.

Central to our immune response is the complement cascade, a series of events activated when potential threats are detected. This process produces protein messengers, C3a and C5a, which in turn activate specific receptors on cells, setting off a cascade of internal signals. The precise mechanisms of these receptors, especially the elusive C5aR1, have remained a mystery.

Using the advanced technique of cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM), the researchers captured detailed images of these receptors in action. These images unveil how the receptors interact with molecules, change shape upon activation and transmit signals within the cell.

The study’s lead author, Cornelius Gati, assistant professor of biological sciences, chemistry, and quantitative and computational biology at the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences, remarked on the findings, noting, “This research offers significant and comprehensive insights into a crucial receptor family within the immune system.”

The study’s revelations suggest potential avenues for the development of drugs targeting these receptors to treat various diseases, added Gati, who heads USC’s cryo-EM facility, which is available for use by researchers around the globe.

As the global community continues to grapple with diseases that impact millions, understanding the nuances of our immune system becomes ever more critical. This research, published in the journal Cell on Oct. 17, contributes to that understanding, providing a foundation for future studies aiming to harness the power of our body’s natural defenses.

About the study

Authors on the study include Gati and Postdoctoral Fellow Ravi Yadav of USC Dornsife’s Department of Molecular and Computational Biology; Htet Khant of USC Viterbi School of Engineering; Manish Yadav, Jagannath Maharana, Shirsha Saha, Parishmita Sarma, Chahat Soni, Vinay Singh, Sayantan Saha, Manisankar Ganguly, Samanwita Mahapatra, Sudha Mishra, Ramanuj Banerjee and Arun Shukla of the Indian Institute of Technology; Xaria Li and Trent Woodruff of the University of Queensland; and Mohamed Chami of Universität Basel.


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EUR/USD: Dollar volatile as Treasury yields surge; parity calls grow

JPMorgan expects EUR/USD to test parity, down from prior 1.05 target Citibank is eyeing a move to parity within six months ING head of research sees euro-dollar…

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  • JPMorgan expects EUR/USD to test parity, down from prior 1.05 target
  • Citibank is eyeing a move to parity within six months
  • ING head of research sees euro-dollar parity as possible
  • Rabobank, Nomura, and RBC are eyeing a euro decline to 1.02 by end of year

Both the US dollar and stocks are lower as good news about the economy is once again bad news, since it will keep policymakers on the fence on delivering more tightening. Treasury yields are rising after a couple of strong economic releases about consumer spending and increased manufacturing output.  It seems the US economy isn’t ready to head into a recession just yet. ​

The greenback higher was initially higher after both a cool Canadian inflation report put BOC rate hike expectations on ice and as falling UK pay growth will allow the BOE to hold off on raising rates. It seems today was all about an incremental move higher for Fed rate hike expectations, while all the other advanced economies posted softening data that could suggest they are done tightening.

It seems that Wall Street is still bearish on the euro.  Today’s rebound in the euro might be short-lived, but that could extend as bearish bets were overcrowded.

Earnings

It looks like JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo had a clean baton pass to Bank of America and Goldman Sachs. The latest round of bank earnings saw both Goldman Sachs and Bank of America deliver better-than-expected earnings and revenue.  Other notable earnings saw Johnson & Johnson boost their full-year revenue guidance and Lockheed Martin still target sales growth despite uncertainty with the Pentagon’s budget. ​ ​

The big banks are still mostly upbeat on the US consumer. ​ Citigroup CEO Fraser said, “US Personal Banking also had double-digit revenue growth while a continued deceleration in spending indicates an increasingly cautious consumer.”  Goldman CEO Solomon expects “a continued recovery in both capital markets and strategic activity if conditions remain conducive.”

US Data

The US consumer appears to be much stronger than anyone thought on Wall Street.  The advance estimate for retail sales in September rose 0.7%, well above the 0.3% consensus estimate and exceeding all economists’ estimates.  A strong retail sales number like this has traders wondering if it is possible for this momentum to persist into Q4 and if this will end up being inflationary?

After a round of banking earnings and spending data, the US consumer is still looking healthy.  Despite strong sales and production releases, the Fed won’t be raising rates at the November 1st meeting.  At this point it seems they will need to keep suggesting that they might not be done tightening.  Fed fund futures showed the odds of a rate hike by the end of the year went up from yesterday’s 36.9% to around 50.3%.

Home builder sentiment fell to a 10-month given the recent surge with borrowing costs. This was the third straight decline, which shows builders are hesitant to build up more homes which would provide more relief for shelter prices.

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Best Buy CEO blames Taylor Swift for this major economic problem

The head of the tech retailer called out the pop star for a very intriguing reason.

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Unless you're blissfully off of all social media and receive little to no radio signals at your place of residence, you're probably aware that there's a pop star in the world named Taylor Swift. 

And, if you're like most Americans, you probably also have an opinion about her. 

Related: Walmart might stop selling a popular product from this beloved brand

Taylor Swift, who's in the midst of her global concert tour and promoting her film "Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour," has been cashing in on movie ticket sales, generating $123.5 million in box office sales, which makes her performance the highest-grossing concert film on record.

"Look what you genuinely made me do: Due to unprecedented demand we’re opening up early access showings of The Eras Tour Concert Film on THURSDAY in America and Canada!! As in… TOMORROW. We’re also adding additional showtimes Friday and throughout the weekend. All tickets will be available by 10am tomorrow morning. And it’ll be showing starting Friday in 90 countries all over the world," Swift wrote on Instagram before her concert film premiered.

"I can’t thank you enough for wanting to see this film that so vividly captures my favorite adventure I’ve ever been a part of: The Eras Tour. And the best part is, it’s an adventure we’re still on together," she continued.

View the original article to see embedded media.

She's also cashing in on concert ticket sales; almost all of her concert dates are completely sold out and tickets go for well over $1,000. 

It's estimated that Swift's Eras tour has been her most successful yet, raking in over $780 million and netting Swift approximately $305 million. And the tour isn't even over yet. It will continue into 2024 with dozens of international destinations including Tokyo, Stockholm, and Rio de Janeiro. 

But not everybody is happy with the Swift-mania that's swept the entire globe. 

Best Buy CEO slams Swift-centric spending

CEO of Best Buy  (BBY) - Get Free Report Corie Barry told a conference recently that she thinks the world has gone too far with its frenzied spending –and Best Buy is suffering directly at the hands of it. 

“’Funflation,’ Taylor Swift… those experiences are really where people are willing to pay,” Barry told Fortune’s Most Powerful Women summit. “[B]igger ticket items in electronics are not right now where people are interested.”

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - MAY 12: EDITORIAL USE ONLY. NO BOOK COVERS., Taylor Swift performs onstage during the Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour at Lincoln Financial Field on May 12, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Lisa Lake/TAS23/Getty Images for TAS Rights Management)

Lisa Lake/TAS23/Getty Images

Barry has a point, concert sales have been through the roof as more Americans show an interest in spending their money on experiences – like travel and events – than on goods and electronics. 

"We've never seen a summer like this in our history and we can, without a doubt, contribute this to Taylor Swift and Beyoncé. We are seeing the top female artists commanding higher ticket prices – the average ticket price for top female artists right now is $660, compared to $245 for top male artists," Stubhub spokesman Adam Budelli said.

By comparison, Best Buy's Q2 spending fell 7.22% compared to the year prior to $9.58 billion. Its net income was down 10.46%. 

"We continue to expect that this year will be the low point in tech demand after two years of sales declines. Next year the consumer electronics industry should see stabilization and possibly growth," Barry told investors in August.

We'll see what Swift has to say about that.

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