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For There to be a Second Wave, the First Wave Needs to be Contained

The US isn’t in a second wave of coronavirus – the first wave never ended

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3 years ago

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This article was originally published by The Conversation.

The U.S. as a whole is facing a huge surge in coronavirus cases, but the differences between states like New York and Florida are striking. Kena Betancur/1207979953 via Getty Images
After sustained declines in the number of COVID-19 cases over recent months, restrictions are starting to ease across the United States. Numbers of new cases are falling or stable at low numbers in some states, but they are surging in many others. Overall, the U.S. is experiencing a sharp increase in the number of new cases a day, and by late June, had surpassed the peak rate of spread in early April. When seeing these increasing case numbers, it is reasonable to wonder if this is the dreaded second wave of the coronavirus – a resurgence of rising infections after a reduction in cases. The U.S. as a whole is not in a second wave because the first wave never really stopped. The virus is simply spreading into new populations or resurging in places that let down their guard too soon.

To have a second wave, the first wave needs to end

A wave of an infection describes a large rise and fall in the number of cases. There isn’t a precise epidemiological definition of when a wave begins or ends. But with talk of a second wave in the news, as an epidemiologist and public health researcher, I think there are two necessary factors that must be met before we can colloquially declare a second wave. First, the virus would have to be controlled and transmission brought down to a very low level. That would be the end of the first wave. Then, the virus would need to reappear and result in a large increase in cases and hospitalizations. Many countries in Europe and Asia have successfully ended the first wave. New Zealand and Iceland have also made it through their first waves and are now essentially coronavirus-free, with very low levels of community transmission and only a handful of active cases currently. [Get our best science, health and technology stories. Sign up for The Conversation’s science newsletter.] In the U.S., cases spiked in March and April and then trended downward due to social distancing guidance and implementation. However, the U.S. never reduced spread to low numbers that were sustained over time. Through May and early June, numbers plateaued at approximately 25,000 new cases daily. We have left that plateau. Since mid-June, cases have been surging upwards. Additionally, the percentage of COVID-19 tests that are returning positive is climbing steeply, indicating that the increase in new cases is not simply a result of more testing, but the result of an increase in spread. As of writing this, new deaths per day have not begun to climb, but some hospitals’ intensive care units have recently reached full capacity. In the beginning of the outbreak, deaths often lagged behind confirmed infections. It is likely, as Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious-disease specialist said on June 22, that deaths will soon follow the surge in new cases.
After months of strict social distancing rules, New York has reduced its new cases to a fraction of what they were in April and is still being cautious. John Nacion/STAR MAX/IPx 2020/AP Images

Different states, different trends

Looking at U.S. numbers as a whole hides what is really going on. Different states are in vastly different situations right now and when you look at states individually, four major categories emerge.
  1. Places where the first wave is ending: States in the Northeast and a few scattered elsewhere experienced large initial spikes but were able to mostly contain the virus and substantially brought down new infections. New York is a good example of this.
  2. Places still in the first wave: Several states in the South and West – see Texas and California – had some cases early on, but are now seeing massive surges with no sign of slowing down.
  3. Places in between: Many states were hit early in the first wave, managed to slow it down, but are either at a plateau – like North Dakota – or are now seeing steep increases – like Oklahoma.
  4. Places experiencing local second waves: Looking only at a state level, Hawaii, Montana and Alaska could be said to be experiencing second waves. Each state experienced relatively small initial outbreaks and was able to reduce spread to single digits of daily new confirmed cases, but are now all seeing spikes again.
The trends aren’t surprising based on how states have been dealing with reopening. The virus will go wherever there are susceptible people and until the U.S. stops community spread across the entire country, the first wave isn’t over.
The 1918 flu came back with a vengeance after a mutation and lack of preparedness set the stage for tens of millions of deaths during the second wave. Universal History Archive/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

What could a second wave look like?

It is possible – though at this point it seems unlikely – that the U.S. could control the virus before a vaccine is developed. If that happens, it would be time to start thinking about a second wave. The question of what it might look like depends in large part on everyone’s actions. The 1918 flu pandemic was characterized by a mild first wave in the winter of 1917-1918 that went away in summer. After restrictions were lifted, people very quickly went back to pre-pandemic life. But a second, deadlier strain came back in fall of 1918 and third in spring of 1919. In total, more than 500 million people were infected worldwide and upwards of 50 million died over the course of three waves. It was the combination of a quick return to normal life and a mutation in the flu’s genome that made it more deadly that led to the horrific second and third waves. Thankfully, the coronavirus appears to be much more genetically stable than the influenza virus, and thus less likely to mutate into a more deadly variant. That leaves human behavior as the main risk factor. Until a vaccine or effective treatment is developed, the tried-and-true public health measures of the last months – social distancing, universal mask wearing, frequent hand-washing and avoiding crowded indoor spaces – are the ways to stop the first wave and thwart a second one. And when there are surges like what is happening now in the U.S., further reopening plans need to be put on hold.

Melissa Hawkins receives funding from USDA.

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Soft, living materials made with algae glow under stress

A team of researchers led by the University of California San Diego has developed soft yet durable materials that glow in response to mechanical stress,…

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37 mins ago

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October 20, 2023

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A team of researchers led by the University of California San Diego has developed soft yet durable materials that glow in response to mechanical stress, such as compression, stretching or twisting. The materials derive their luminescence from single-celled algae known as dinoflagellates.

Credit: UC San Diego Jacobs School of Engineering

A team of researchers led by the University of California San Diego has developed soft yet durable materials that glow in response to mechanical stress, such as compression, stretching or twisting. The materials derive their luminescence from single-celled algae known as dinoflagellates.

The work, inspired by the bioluminescent waves observed during red tide events at San Diego’s beaches, was published Oct. 20 in Science Advances.

“An exciting feature of these materials is their inherent simplicity—they need no electronics, no external power source,” said study senior author Shengqiang Cai, a professor of mechanical and aerospace engineering at the UC San Diego Jacobs School of Engineering. “We demonstrate how we can harness the power of nature to directly convert mechanical stimuli into light emission.”

This study was a multi-disciplinary collaboration involving engineers and materials scientists in Cai’s lab, marine biologist Michael Latz at UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography, and physics professor Maziyar Jalaal at University of Amsterdam.

The primary ingredients of the bioluminescent materials are dinoflagellates and a seaweed-based polymer called alginate. These elements were mixed to form a solution, which was then processed with a 3D printer to create a diverse array of shapes, such as grids, spirals, spiderwebs, balls, blocks and pyramid-like structures. The 3D-printed structures were then cured as a final step.

When the materials are subjected to compression, stretching or twisting, the dinoflagellates within them respond by emitting light. This response mimics what happens in the ocean, when dinoflagellates produce flashes of light as part of a predator defense strategy. In tests, the materials glowed when the researchers pressed on them and traced patterns on their surface. The materials were even sensitive enough to glow under the weight of a foam ball rolling on their surface.

The greater the applied stress, the brighter the glow. The researchers were able to quantify this behavior and developed a mathematical model that can predict the intensity of the glow based on the magnitude of the mechanical stress applied.

The researchers also demonstrated techniques to make these materials resilient in various experimental conditions. To reinforce the materials so that they can bear substantial mechanical loads, a second polymer, poly(ethylene glycol) diacrylate, was added to the original blend. Also, coating the materials with a stretchy rubber-like polymer called Ecoflex provided protection in acidic and basic solutions. With this protective layer, the materials could even be stored in seawater for up to five months without losing their form or bioluminescent properties.

Another beneficial feature of these materials is their minimal maintenance requirements. To keep working, the dinoflagellates within the materials need periodic cycles of light and darkness. During the light phase, they photosynthesize to produce food and energy, which are then used in the dark phase to emit light when mechanical stress is applied. This behavior mirrors the natural processes at play when the dinoflagellates cause bioluminescence in the ocean during red tide events. 

“This current work demonstrates a simple method to combine living organisms with non-living components to fabricate novel materials that are self-sustaining and are sensitive to fundamental mechanical stimuli found in nature,” said study first author Chenghai Li, a mechanical and aerospace engineering Ph.D. candidate in Cai’s lab.

The researchers envision that these materials could potentially be used as mechanical sensors to gauge pressure, strain or stress. Other potential applications include soft robotics and biomedical devices that use light signals to perform treatment or controlled drug release.

However, there is much work to be done before these applications can be realized. The researchers are working on further improving and optimizing the materials.

Paper: “Ultrasensitive and robust mechanoluminescent living composites.” Co-authors include Zijun Wang and Nada F. Qari, UC San Diego; and Nico Schramma, University of Amsterdam.

This work was supported by the U.S. Army Research Office (grant W911NF-20-2-0182).

Journal

Science Advances

DOI

10.1126/sciadv.adi8643

Article Title

Ultrasensitive and robust mechanoluminescent living composites

Article Publication Date

20-Oct-2023

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Industrial Real Estate and the North American Supply Chain Revolution

Industrial real estate might be one of the strongest-performing property types out there in recent years, but it is far from immune to change. Experts…

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39 mins ago

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October 20, 2023

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Industrial real estate might be one of the strongest-performing property types out there in recent years, but it is far from immune to change. During the panel “Industrial Real Estate and the North American Supply Chain Revolution,” held at NAIOP’s CRE.Converge conference in Seattle this week, Chad Griffiths, MBA, SIOR, partner and associate broker at NAI Commercial Real Estate, spoke with Matt Carroll, senior associate at Avison Young, about what’s in store for industrial properties in the coming years.

The background to modern-day industrial real estate is an ongoing dialogue about globalization versus deglobalization as the pandemic fades into the rearview mirror, Carroll said. There are proponents of manufacturing overseas and supporters of manufacturing in North America, as well as a paradigm shift from optimality toward optionality. “Optimality was … ’I want to be as efficient and low in cost as possible,’” he said. “And as we come out of the pandemic era, what you hear a lot of people talking about is having optionality…’If I can’t move all of my manufacturing back to the U.S., I want to least have the option to mitigate my risk by having the presence of manufacturing on this side of the hemisphere.’”

Another transformative force the panelists discussed was a recent rail merger, the acquisition of Kansas City Southern by Canadian Pacific. The merger will result in the first trans-American rail line linking Mexico, the U.S., and Canada, which Carroll described as like a tree with roots in Mexico. Griffiths said developers should consider opportunities for intermodal yards, airports and other industrial properties along the “trunk” of that tree.

“It’s a $30 billion merger. So that wasn’t small change, and I have to think that they did that because they want to capitalize on Mexico becoming a manufacturing powerhouse,” he said.

The panelists discussed other major transformations they expect in the near future, as well. Both agreed that buildings will face a growing need for electric vehicle (EV)-charging infrastructure, and many will struggle to deliver since most warehouses aren’t built with high power demand in mind. “It can actually render some functional obsolescence if these buildings aren’t able to accommodate future use,” Griffiths said. Properties may be able to supplement their power access with on-site solar generation, but some won’t be physically strong enough to support the weight of rooftop solar. An action item for developers now: install sufficient conduit for greater long-term power needs ahead of time, so that capacity is there when it is needed.

During the Q&A session, one audience member mentioned that his company is putting in three times as much power in its properties compared to five years ago.

Beyond just the power component, industrial properties will also need to grapple with where to place EV-charging infrastructure on-site. Where can trucks linger on-site for an hour while charging, without disrupting loading and unloading? “We’re talking about EV-charging courts,” said Mason. “So, you don’t want to necessarily have your trucks just sitting there…instead they’re going to come bring the trailer in, and then you’re going to have them go to a separate place for charging.”

Outside of EVs, another growing power draw to expect is automation. The panelists said drone delivery is getting closer to reality, alongside collaborative robots that support workers in the warehouse.

One possible black swan event that could negatively impact the property type: Automation technology is making 60 to 80-foot warehouse racks possible. While emphasizing high cubic feet with a smaller footprint could help developers provide more efficient logistics space, this could be very disruptive to the market.

Griffiths said this might leave the current stock of 36- to 40-foot warehouse buildings in a tough position. “I think that that could render those buildings, just from a competitive standpoint, less valuable, because now a company has to pay on that square footage,” he said. Carroll added that this might be geographically based, with markets where land is cheap continuing to emphasize lower, larger buildings. “So, my quick thought would be I think it’s going to be geographical. If you go to a place like Indiana where there’s a lot of land to develop, I think the warehouses will remain similar in size as they are now, in terms of ceiling height,” he said.

Industrial real estate has been on fire for a long time, and markets are now starting to see vacancy rates tick up. Meanwhile, consumer preferences changing to favor experiences could result in moderation of demand. As long as people are buying goods, though, there will be a need for warehouses, tall or short, close to our homes.

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This post is brought to you by JLL, the social media and conference blog sponsor of NAIOP’s CRE.Converge 2023. Learn more about JLL at www.us.jll.com or www.jll.ca.

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Understanding Carbon Goals and Approaches for Developers

As investors and occupiers look to improve the sustainability of their investments and operations, decarbonizing the built environment is an increasingly…

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39 mins ago

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October 20, 2023

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As investors and occupiers look to improve the sustainability of their investments and operations, decarbonizing the built environment is an increasingly important real estate decision.

In a panel at this week’s NAIOP’s CRE.Converge conference, sustainable building professionals explored some of the strategies their firms are using to mitigate carbon emissions across their industrial real estate portfolios. Nate Maniktala, LEED AP BD+C, MBA, a principal at building consultancy BranchPattern, moderated the panel and began by addressing the scope of the need for sustainable building methods.

According to Julia Wattick, AIA, LEED AP ND, Fitwel Ambassador, a senior associate and team lead at BranchPattern, there are two broad types of carbon in buildings: Embodied carbon from the building’s entire lifecycle and operational carbon from building use. “There are actually seven years of operational carbon emissions that typically equal that upfront embodied carbon impact,” she said. Out of that embodied carbon, concrete is the leading emissions culprit, accounting for over 11% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

Real estate businesses feel pressure to address carbon from several main sources. According to Josh Hullum, executive director of construction at Affinius Capital, “It’s understanding the impact from our investors. I think that’s the loudest voice in the room, particularly as you go north to Canadian or European investors. For every dollar received, there’s an element of expectation for more responsible design and development.”

For Jennifer Emrick, LEED AP BD+C, global construction sustainability manager for Prologis, there is occupier as well as government pressure. “We have customers that are also setting their own internal carbon goals, so they’re coming to Prologis and they’re wanting to understand how we can meet these goals,” she said. “And so, we want to be able to work with them, be a partner, have the knowledge and the expertise to let them know what’s the path to get to that goal.”

Emrick also pointed to recent U.S. sustainability regulations such as New York City’s Local Law 97, and others in Denver and California, as encouragement for Prologis to adopt more sustainable construction practices.

According to Wattick, there are five types of building decarbonization efforts, ranked in order from most impactful:

  1. Renovation, the highest-priority impact area since pre-existing buildings have already generated much of their embodied carbon.
  2. Reduce the use of carbon-intensive materials through design.
  3. Reuse existing materials, and design for future reuse.
  4. Replace materials with a high carbon impact with less impactful ones.
  5. Require low-carbon materials for new projects.

The panelists used a range of approaches to achieve these goals. Mass timber was widely suggested as a useful, lower-carbon material, alongside different concrete mixes utilizing fly ash or other Supplementary Cementitious Materials that partially or completely replace Portland cement. Additionally, novel building technologies like Nexii wall panels, which use sand and a binder to replace Portland cement, or Total Integrated Panel Systems (TIPS), which add a foam core to concrete, can be critical for reducing embodied carbon as well.

At Affinius Capital, Hullum pointed to one project where his team installed high-performing insulation, resulting in a slightly higher embodied carbon footprint in return for enhanced operational performance. “It’s not all about driving embodied carbon as low as possible at the sacrifice of the long-term utility…you have to holistically ask what’s the best approach,” he said.

Reducing the carbon footprint of buildings isn’t an easy task, but it can be accomplished with the right planning ahead of time. “The whole team is going to have to collaborate and work together, which they do already but inherently it’s going to be more difficult when you’re doing something new like the TIPS panels,” Emrick said.

In return, property teams may be able to realize drastically improved building carbon performance, while seeing similar or only slightly higher development costs. The broader sustainability impact of properties is now considered alongside financial metrics, Hullum added.

Read more in a two-part pre-conference series on this topic:

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This post is brought to you by JLL, the social media and conference blog sponsor of NAIOP’s CRE.Converge 2023. Learn more about JLL at www.us.jll.com or www.jll.ca.

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