Confirmed COVID-19 cases have now passed 10 million: what will they be next week, globally and in your country?
Having a good estimate can help health authorities with their responses and will guide governments as they ease lockdowns. To this end, we have been publishing real-time forecasts for confirmed cases and deaths for many parts of the world on an almost daily basis since March 20. These have largely been reliable indicators of what can be expected to happen in the next week.
Many of the more formal models for predicting the pandemic – such as the well-publicised Imperial College London model that guided the UK government’s response – use maths to try to explain the underlying processes of the outbreak, and do this by adopting a small number of interpretable parameters (such as the R number). They make predictions based on understanding how outbreaks work in general.
Our forecasts, on the other hand, don’t attempt to understand why changes occur. Instead, they are based purely on data from the current pandemic, looking at how it has already evolved and shifted to predict what will happen next. This often leads to more accurate predictions.
Why epidemiological models can struggle
Imagine you are travelling by road from Boston to California. Knowing from previous trips that California is your destination, we track your journey and try to forecast each day’s itinerary. When there are road closures, you briefly detour, so our forecasts go wrong for a while, then recover. Many models have such an in-built “reversion to the mean” that can handle these sorts of small changes.
Usually this model works well. But what if you hear about wildfires in California and decide to visit Canada instead? The forecasts become increasingly poor if we maintain that you are still going to California. The model needs to recover from such a “structural break”.
Most models in the social sciences and epidemiology have a theory behind them that’s based on available evidence from the past. This simple travel example shows why such models may not be good for making predictions: they risk being too highly driven by their theoretical formulations – such as that you’re going to California.
The Office for Budget Responsibility’s predictions of UK productivity after the 2008 financial crisis are a great visual example of what happens when such models go wrong. See the lovely graphs available from their historical forecast database. We call them hedgehog graphs, because the wildly erroneous forecasts look like spines going away from the confirmed data.
In epidemiology, most models have a sound theoretical basis. They take account of epidemics starting slowly, then exponentially increasing and eventually slowing. However, human behaviour and policy reactions can lead to abrupt changes that can be difficult to allow for (such as unexpectedly visiting Canada). Data may also suddenly shift in a pandemic – ramping up testing may reveal many new infections, or cases in care homes may suddenly join the dataset. To be effective in such settings, forecasting devices must be sufficiently robust to handle problems of changing trends and sudden shifts in outcomes and measurements. Our short-term forecasts can handle this in a way more formal models often can’t.
How our forecasts work and perform
To create our forecasts – say, for the total number of COVID-19 cases in a country – we first create trend lines based on the confirmed data that we have. Every time a new data point is added, this creates a new trend line – so there are as many trend lines as there are data points. A machine learning algorithm then selects the trends that matter out of all of those available, and those it chooses are averaged to show how the process has evolved over time (the trend in the data). Forecasts are derived from this underlying trend, as well as by looking at the gap between earlier forecasts and actual outcomes.
It may seem surprising, but this works. The graph below shows the forecast we made on May 22 for how the UK’s total number of COVID-19 cases would increase over the next week or so (the solid red line). Our forecast for May 30 was just under 272,000. The reported outcome ended up being 272,826.
This second graph shows forecasts of EU COVID-19 deaths that we made during March and April. The successive forecasts made over time are shown in red, with the actual data points in grey. The overlap between the grey and red lines shows that the forecasting here was pretty accurate. Compare the close bunching of the lines here to the hedgehog graphs mentioned earlier!
However, a more precise way of judging the accuracy of forecasts is to look at a measure called mean absolute error (MAE). Absolute errors are the numerical differences between predictions and what the actual values turn out to be; MAE is the average of these differences for a set period. MAE gives a general measure of how far off your predictions were.
Up to April 4, the MAE for our one-week-ahead forecasts for COVID-19 deaths across a number of mainly European countries was 629, whereas on average forecasts by the Imperial College London COVID-19 Response Team for deaths in the same countries over the same period were out by 1,068. When incorporating the following week’s data, on average our forecasts were out by roughly the same amount – 678 – whereas Imperial’s MAE had grown to 1,912. After April 11, our MAE figures began to mirror one another’s, but at least in the early stages of the pandemic, our predictions seemed to be more accurate.
During the pandemic, these forecasts have provided useful insights for the week ahead, and now that Latin America is the epicenter of the outbreak, agencies like the Inter-American Development Bank are using them. Not only is our more robust way of forecasting playing a role in the current pandemic, we believe it may be essential in a second wave.
This research has received financial support from the Robertson Foundation (award 9907422), the Institute for New Economic Thinking (grant 20029822), and Nuffield College, University of Oxford. David F Hendry has a financial interest in the software OxMetrics 8.2 used for the computations.
This research has received financial support from the Robertson Foundation (award 9907422), the Institute for New Economic Thinking (grant 20029822) and the ERC (grant 694262, DisCont). Jurgen A Doornik has a financial interest in the software OxMetrics 8.2 used for the computations.
Jennifer L Castle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
“That 70s Show”
The hit TV series "That 70s Show" aired from 1998 to 2006 and focused on six teenage friends living in Wisconsin in the late 70s. The irony was that the…
The hit TV series “That 70s Show” aired from 1998 to 2006 and focused on six teenage friends living in Wisconsin in the late 70s. The irony was that the actors playing the teenagers were not born in the late 70s and had never experienced life during that period. Many alive today cannot fathom a lifestyle devoid of the internet, cable television, mobile phones, and social media. Oh…the horrors.
Yet, today, almost 50 years later, financial commentators, many of whom were not alive at the time, suggest that inflation and yields will repeat “That 70s Show.” Understandably, the increase in inflation and interest rates from their historic lows is cause for concern. As James Bullard noted, “Inflation is a pernicious problem,” which is why the Federal Reserve lept into action.
“When the US Federal Reserve embarked on an aggressive campaign to quash inflation last year, it did so with the goal of avoiding a painful repeat of the 1970s, when inflation spun out of control and economic malaise set in.” – CNN
That concern of “spiraling inflation” remains the key concern of the Federal Reserve in its current monetary policy decisions. It has also pushed many economists to point back at history, using “That 70s Show” period as the yardstick for justifying their concerns about a resurgence of inflation.
“The chair of the Federal Reserve at the time, Arthur Burns, hiked interest rates dramatically between 1972 and 1974. Then, as the economy contracted, he changed course and started cutting rates.
Inflation later roared back, forcing the hand of Paul Volcker, who took over at the Fed in 1979, Richardson said. Volcker brought double-digit inflation to heel — but only by raising borrowing costs high enough to trigger back-to-back recessions in the early 1980s that at one point pushed unemployment above 10%.
‘If they don’t stop inflation now, the historical analogy [indicates] it’s not going to stop, and it’s going to get worse,’ said Richardson, an economics professor at the University of California, Irvine.”
However, such may be an oversimplification to suggest Burns was wrong and Volker was right. The reason is the economy today is vastly different than during “That 70s Show.”
Today Is Very Different Than The 1970s
During the 70s, the Federal Reserve was entrenched in an inflation fight. The end of the Bretton Woods and the failure of wage/price controls combined with an oil embargo sent inflation surging. That surge sent markets crumbling under the weight of rising interest rates. Ongoing oil price shocks, spiking food costs, wages, and budgetary pressures led to stagflation through the end of that decade.
What was most notable was the Fed’s inflation fight. Like today, the Fed is hiking rates to quell inflationary pressures from exogenous factors. In the late 70s, the oil crisis led to inflationary pressures as oil prices fed through a manufacturing-intensive economy. Today, inflation resulted from monetary interventions that created demand against a supply-constrained economy.
Such is a critical point. During “That 70s Show,” the economy was primarily manufacturing-based, providing a high multiplier effect on economic growth. Today, the mix has reversed, with services making up the bulk of economic activity. While services are essential, they have a very low multiplier effect on economic activity.
One of the primary reasons is that services require lower wage growth than manufacturing.
While wages did rise sharply over the last couple of years, such was a function of the economic shutdown, which created a supply/demand gap in the employment matrix. As shown, full-time employment as a percentage of the population fell sharply during the pandemic lockdown. However, with full employment back to pre-pandemic levels, wage growth declines as employers regain control over the labor balance.
Furthermore, the economic composite of wages, interest rates, and economic growth remain highly correlated between “That 70s Show” and today. Such suggests that while inflation rose with the supply/demand imbalance created by the shutdown, the return to normalcy will lower inflation as economic activity slows.
With a correlation of 85%, the inflationary decline will be coincident with economic growth, interest rates, and wages.
Unlike “That 70s Show,” where economic growth and wages were rising steadily, which allowed for higher levels of interest rates and inflation, There is a singular reason why a repeat of that period is quite impossible.
The Debt Burden And Economic Weakness
What is notable about “That 70s Show” is that it was the culmination of events following World War II.
Following World War II, America became the “last man standing.” France, England, Russia, Germany, Poland, Japan, and others were devastated, with little ability to produce for themselves. America found its most substantial economic growth as the “boys of war” returned home to start rebuilding a war-ravaged globe.
But that was just the start of it.
In the late ’50s, America stepped into the abyss as humankind took its first steps into space. The space race, which lasted nearly two decades, led to leaps in innovation and technology that paved the wave for the future of America.
These advances, combined with the industrial and manufacturing backdrop, fostered high levels of economic growth, increased savings rates, and capital investment, which supported higher interest rates.
Furthermore, the Government ran no deficit, and household debt to net worth was about 60%. So, while inflation increased and interest rates rose in tandem, the average household could sustain its living standard. The chart shows the difference between household debt versus incomes in the pre- and post-financialization eras.
With the Government running a deep deficit with debt exceeding $32 trillion, consumer debt at record levels, and economic growth rates fragile, consumers’ ability to withstand higher inflation and interest rates is limited. As noted previously, the “gap” between income and savings to sustain the standard of living is at record levels. The chart shows the gap between the inflation-adjusted cost of living and the spread between incomes and savings. It currently requires more than $6500 of debt annually to fill the “gap.“
It Is Not The Same
While the Fed is currently engaged “in the fight of its life,” trying to quell inflation, The economic differences are vastly different today. Due to the heavy debt burden, the economy requires lower interest rates to sustain even meager economic growth rates of 2%. Such levels were historically seen as “pre-recessionary,” but today, they are something economists hope to maintain.
This is one of the primary reasons why economic growth will continue to run at lower levels. Such suggests we will witness an economy:
- Subject to more frequent recessionary spats,
- Lower equity market returns, and
- A stagflationary environment as wage growth remains suppressed while the cost of living rises.
Changes in structural employment, demographics, and deflationary pressures derived from changes in productivity will magnify these problems.
While many want to suggest that the Federal Reserve is worried about “That 70s Show,” we would be lucky to have the economic strength to support such a concern.
The Fed’s bigger worry should be when the impact of higher rates causes a financial break in a debt-dependent financial system.unemployment economic growth monetary policy fed federal reserve spread lockdown pandemic interest rates unemployment oil japan france germany poland russia
Mapping The Migration Of The World’s Millionaires In 2023
Mapping The Migration Of The World’s Millionaires In 2023
Just like everyone else, High Net Worth Individuals (HNWIs) traveled less than usual…
Just like everyone else, High Net Worth Individuals (HNWIs) traveled less than usual during the pandemic, and as a result their migration numbers trended downwards.
But, as Visual Capitalist's Avery Koops details below, millionaires and billionaires are on the move again and it is anticipated that 122,000 HNWIs will move to a new country by the end of the year.
Henley & Partners’ Private Wealth Migration Report has tracked the countries HNWIs have moved from and to over the last 10 years; this map showcases the 2023 forecasts.
In this context, HNWIs are defined as individuals with a net worth of at least $1 million USD.
The Countries Welcoming New Millionaires
The top 10 countries which are likely to become home to the highest number of millionaires and billionaires in 2023 are scattered across the globe, with Australia reclaiming its top spot this year from the UAE.
Here’s a closer look at the data:
Only two Asian countries make the top 10, with the rest spread across Europe, North America, and Oceania.
Despite historic economic challenges, Greece is projected to gain 1,200 High Net Worth Individuals this year. One reason could be the country’s golden visa program, wherein wealthy individuals can easily obtain residence and eventually EU passports for the right price—currently a minimum real estate investment cost of 250,000 euros is all that’s required.
Many of the leading millionaire destinations are attractive for wealthy individuals because of higher levels of economic freedom, allowing for laxer tax burdens or ease of investment. Singapore, which expects to gain 3,200 millionaires, is the most economically free market in the world.
The Countries Losing the Most Millionaires
China is anticipated to lose 13,500 High Net Worth Individuals this year, more than double as many as the second place country, India (6,500).
Here’s a closer look at the bottom 10:
In a number of these countries, strict regulatory bodies and corrupt governments can hinder the ease with which HNWIs can manage their own money.
In Russia, many wealthy individuals are facing personal tariffs and trade restrictions from Western countries due to the war in Ukraine. China’s crackdowns on Hong Kong have made it a less attractive place for business. And finally, the UK’s exit from the EU has caused many businesses and individuals to lose the easy movement of labor, finances, and investment that made operations across European borders seamless.
Some of these countries may still be adding homegrown millionaires and billionaires, but losing thousands of HNWIs to net migration does have a considerable economic impact.
Overall, millionaires are increasingly on the move. In the 10 years of reporting—despite a dip during the pandemic—the number of HNWIs moving away from their countries of origin has been growing every year.
Here’s a look at the numbers:
In a geopolitically fragile but more connected world, it’s no surprise to see millionaires voting with their feet. As a result, governments are increasingly in competition to win the hearts and minds of the world’s economic elite to their side.
A Comprehensive Timeline Of COVID-19 Vaccines And Myocarditis
A Comprehensive Timeline Of COVID-19 Vaccines And Myocarditis
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Sept. 22, 2020: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) identifies myocarditis as an adverse event of special interest, or a potential side effect.
Oct. 30, 2020: U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) identifies myocarditis as an adverse event of special interest.
December 2020: One case of pericarditis reported to the U.S. Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), which is co-managed by the CDC and FDA.
Dec. 11, 2020: FDA authorizes the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for Americans 16 and older.
Dec. 13, 2020: CDC launches V-safe, a new vaccine safety monitoring system, without including myocarditis as an option in the adverse events list.
Dec. 18, 2020: FDA authorizes the U.S. government-backed Moderna vaccine for Americans 18 and older.
2021: Myocarditis cases spike in the U.S. military.
January 2021: 28 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS.
January 2021: First U.S. military member experiences postvaccination myocarditis, according to a study published months later.
January 2021: First cases of postvaccination myocarditis recorded in Israel.
January 2021: VAERS report processing is delayed due to unexpected spike in reports.
February 2021: 64 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS, including two deaths.
Feb. 1, 2021: Israeli teenager is hospitalized with myocarditis after Pfizer vaccination, doctors say.
Feb. 18, 2021: Safety signal for myocarditis triggered in VAERS using CDC-endorsed method called Proportional Reporting Ratio.
Feb. 19, 2021: Safety signal for myocarditis triggered in VAERS using another method called Fisher’s Exact Test.
Feb. 24–25, 2021: CDC meets with its advisers but does not discuss COVID-19 vaccines.
Feb. 27, 2021: FDA authorizes Johnson & Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine.
Feb. 28, 2021: Israeli officials privately alert CDC to "a large number of reports of myocarditis, particularly in young people, following the administration of the Pfizer vaccine."
Feb. 28, 2021: 57 cases of myocarditis or pericarditis within seven days of vaccination in Pfizer's database in document given to the FDA in April 2021 and not revealed to the public until November 2021.
March 2021: 54 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS.
March 1, 2021: CDC officials disclose (pdf) that two postvaccination cases were identified in the Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD), another CDC-run system.
March 2, 2021: CDC recommends Johnson & Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine for adults.
March 3, 2021: Israeli authorities meet with hospital officials to discuss postvaccination heart problems.
March 4, 2021: Israeli officials confirm they're investigating postvaccination pericarditis.
March 5, 2021: FDA holds meeting with its advisers. Myocarditis is not discussed.
March 6, 2021: Rutgers University becomes first major US school to announce COVID-19 vaccine mandate.
March 8, 2021: Australian health officials contact CDC about U.S. myocarditis cases.
March 9, 2021: U.S. internal memorandum says Israel received around 40 reports of postvaccination myocarditis. U.S. officials say some postvaccination cases were reported in the United States and acknowledge issues with passive surveillance such as underreporting. "Thus, FDA has not made a final determination regarding the causality between myopericarditis and the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines," the memo stated.
March 20, 2021: First postvaccination myocarditis case report is published in the literature.
March 20, 2021: Pfizer contract with South Africa (pdf) says that "there may be adverse effects of the vaccine that are not currently known."
March 31, 2021: Second postvaccination myocarditis case report published.
March 31, 2021: First death from postvaccination myocarditis reported in Israel. The deceased was a 22-year-old previously healthy woman.
April 2021: 158 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS.
April 2021: CDC holds multiple public meetings with no discussion of myocarditis.
April 1, 2021: Israel has received 84 reports of postvaccination myocarditis or pericarditis, news outlet reports.
April 2, 2021: U.S. military officials, CDC meet on postvaccination myocarditis cases.
April 5, 2021: Israeli officials brief the CDC on postvaccination myocarditis cases.
April 5, 2021: Canada reports first case of postvaccination pericarditis.
April 7, 2021: U.S. government call covers myocarditis cases recorded in military members after vaccination.
April 10, 2021: CDC-funded Clinical Immunization Safety Assessment program reviewed postvaccination myocarditis cases, email shows.
April 12, 2021: U.S. military officials brief CDC on postvaccination myocarditis cases.
April 12, 2021: Canada reports first case of postvaccination myocarditis.
April 13, 2021: U.S. military has submitted manuscripts on myocarditis cases to two journals, CDC official says.
April 13, 2021: CDC, FDA advise pause in administration of Johnson & Johnson's vaccine due to six cases of blood clotting.
April 15, 2021: Two otherwise healthy adults hospitalized with chest pain and diagnosed with myocarditis after Moderna vaccination, CDC adviser tells agency.
April 17, 2021: CDC official tells adviser there have been reports of myocarditis after COVID-19 vaccination "but we aren't observing any clear indication of a safety signal."
April 20, 2021: Three cases of myocarditis after second Pfizer dose in Idaho, official tells CDC.
April 23, 2021: United States lifts recommended pause on Johnson & Johnson's vaccine.
April 23, 2021: Israeli Ministry of Health report on postvaccination myocarditis identifies two deaths, Israeli media report. The second deceased was a previously healthy 35-year-old man. Among men aged 18 to 30, there is a one in 20,000 probability of developing myocarditis, the report found. "It seems that these events can be a signal of a possible connection to the vaccine," the committee said. The findings were sent to the FDA.
April 26, 2021: U.S. military officials are tracking 14 cases of myocarditis following messenger RNA vaccination, Military.com reports.
April 26, 2021: CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky says CDC "aware of" cases in the military. She says "we have not seen any reports of those" and that "we have not seen a signal" in CDC databases.
April 27, 2021: CDC officials privately acknowledge that processing of VAERS reports is "taking longer than usual."
April 27, 2021: CDC officials say 24 cases of myocarditis were identified in VSD.
April 27, 2021: U.S. military official warns that pausing administration of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines "will have an adverse impact on US/CA vaccination rates."
April 28, 2021: France detects safety signal for postvaccination myocarditis.
April 28, 2021: CDC director receives notes from discussion with military on myocarditis cases.
April 29, 2021: First cases of pericarditis after COVID-19 vaccination reported in the literature.
April 30, 2021: FDA receives Pfizer report noting myocarditis cases in Pfizer's database.
May 2021: 487 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS, including four deaths.
May 2021: CDC forms a team to review medical records for reported cases of postvaccination myocarditis.
May 5, 2021: CDC meets with advisers but doesn't discuss COVID-19 vaccines.
May 7, 2021: European Medicines Agency announces it has asked Pfizer for information on myocarditis after COVID-19 vaccination.
May 10, 2021: FDA authorizes Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 12 to 15. It does not mention myocarditis.
May 12, 2021: Myocarditis is not discussed during meeting on Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine. Dr. Tom Shimabukuro, a CDC official, gives a presentation on blood clotting after Johnson & Johnson vaccination.
May 12, 2021: Dr. Walensky recommends Pfizer's vaccine for virtually all children aged 12 to 15, based on advice from advisers.
May 13, 2021: CDC officials told to direct questions on potential myocarditis cases to two top vaccine safety officials, Drs. John Su and Shimabukuro.
May 13, 2021: Same officials discuss analyzing VAERS data for myocarditis using the Proportional Reporting Ratio in heavily redacted emails. The agency says the analysis didn't actually start until 2022.
May 13, 2021: CDC adviser says "multiple people texting and email[ing] me with concerns" about myocarditis.
May 13, 2021: Children's National in Washington registers two suspected cases.
May 14, 2021: Dr. Shimabukuro seeks "experts in myocarditis."
May 16, 2021: CDC official says in email, "we are hearing quite a lot about this now, and I don't have a clear understanding of what is and has been being done."
May 17, 2021: CDC workgroup says there are "relatively few" reports of myocarditis after vaccination and that rates "have not differed from expected baseline rates."
May 17, 2021: Dr. Shimabukuro speaks with American Academy of Pediatrics officials to "centralize our coordination" with outside groups.
May 17, 2021: Dr. Su says health care providers "aren't reporting these cases to VAERS."
May 17, 2021: Dr. Su says the "myocarditis thing" is "exploding."
May 18, 2021: States across the U.S. publicly report cases of myocarditis following COVID-19 vaccination.
May 18, 2021: First case report of an American person with postvaccination myocarditis published.
May 19, 2021: CDC tells state officials it has been "closely monitoring" myocarditis and pericarditis after COVID-19 vaccination and that cases "can be serious."
May 20, 2021: Three more cases of postvaccination myocarditis at Connecticut Children's Medical Center, official tells CDC.
May 23, 2021: The American Heart Association says the benefits of COVID-19 vaccination for everyone eligible "enormously outweigh the rare, possible risk of heart-related complications, including inflammation of the heart muscle."
May 24, 2021: CDC workgroup acknowledges for the first time that the number of reports of postvaccination myocarditis to VAERS was higher than expected in those 16 to 24.
May 24, 2021: French Society of Cardiology calls for vaccinating heart failure patients without acknowledging possible vaccine-myocarditis connection.
May 24, 2021: Massachusetts official asks CDC for "messaging" on postvaccination myocarditis.
May 25, 2021: Dr. Paul Offit, an FDA adviser, says about myocarditis and COVID-19 vaccines, "there’s every reason to think this isn’t a problem."
May 26, 2021: The New Zealand Medicines and Medical Devices Safety Authority says there's a safety signal for myocarditis and COVID-19 vaccines.
May 28, 2021: CDC says to keep vaccinating everyone eligible, or virtually all Americans 12 and older.
May 28, 2021: Case series of young, previously healthy males hospitalized with postvaccination myocarditis discloses hospitalizations happened as early as Jan. 30, 2021.
May 28, 2021: CDC says it is focusing on reported cases among those 30 and under.
May 28, 2021: Nine postvaccination myocarditis cases from one state not reported to VAERS, according to CDC.
May 30, 2021: Brighton Collaboration issues case definition for myocarditis.
June 2021: 752 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS, including five deaths.
June 2021: Some experts start calling on U.S. authorities to pause COVID-19 vaccination of young, healthy people.
June 2, 2021: Israel says "there is some probability for a possible link between the second vaccine dose and the onset of myocarditis among young men aged 16 to 30" after researchers find incidence of one in 3,000 to one in 6,000 men aged 16 to 24.
June 4, 2021: U.S. researchers report seven cases in healthy young males following Pfizer vaccination.
June 10, 2021: 99 cases of myocarditis/pericarditis detected in FDA's Biologics Effectiveness and Safety Initiative database, and 1,260 cases reported in Medicare claims data, FDA official says (pdf).
June 10, 2021: CDC working to rapidly follow up on reports of myocarditis following vaccination among people aged 30 and under, CDC official says (pdf). Most cases are in young adults after a second dose.
June 10, 2021: "There’s a lack of alternative explanations" apart from vaccination given the consistency across postvaccination cases, Dr. Cody Meissner, an FDA adviser, says.
June 10, 2021: "I think the myocarditis is something that needs to be looked at closely because we’re likely seeing the tip of the iceberg," says Dr. Michael Kurilla of the U.S. National Institutes of Health, another FDA adviser. June 10, 2021: Pfizer spokesperson tells news outlets that "the benefit-risk profile of our vaccine remains positive."
June 11, 2021: European Medicines Agency announces investigation into reports of myocarditis after COVID-19 vaccination.
June 23, 2021: CDC’s safety committee says evidence now suggests a "likely association" of mRNA vaccination and myocarditis.
June 23, 2021: Number of myocarditis cases recorded in VSD rise to 75. Based on VAERS reports, CDC says number of events higher than expected after dose two in males aged 12 to 49 and females aged 12 to 29. Among children 12 to 17, 188 cases were reported within 21 days of vaccination through June 11. CDC advisers say data suggest vaccines cause myocarditis.
June 23, 2021: CDC estimates (pdf) Pfizer's vaccine will cause up to 69 myocarditis cases per million second doses but will prevent 215 hospitalizations and two deaths in males aged 12 to 17.
June 25, 2021: FDA adds warnings about "the suggested increased risks" of myocarditis and pericarditis to labels for the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines.
June 28, 2021: The U.S. Department of Veteran Affairs says privately it detected more myocarditis cases than expected.
June 29, 2021: Military researchers report 22 previously healthy members suffered myocarditis after receiving a messenger RNA vaccine. "The presentation pattern and clinical course suggest an association with an inflammatory response to vaccination," they say. The cases are among hundreds reported in the literature this month.
June 29, 2021: CDC officials say of reported cases that "the striking clinical similarities in the presentations of these patients, their recent vaccination with an mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine, and the lack of any alternative etiologies for acute myocarditis suggest an association with immunization."
June 30, 2021: Canada adds myocarditis and pericarditis risk information to labels of Moderna and Pfizer vaccines.
July 2021: 364 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS, including seven deaths.
July 3, 2021: 13 young males with postvaccination myocarditis treated at a single hospital in Washington state between April 1, 2021, and June 21, 2021, researchers report.
July 6, 2021: CDC estimates for every million doses of vaccination, dozens of cases of myocarditis can be expected, including 56 to 69 cases among 12- to 17-year-olds. The expected benefits outweigh the risks, though, according to the agency.
July 9, 2021: European Medicines Agency recommends listing myocarditis and pericarditis as side effects for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines after identifying 221 cases after mRNA vaccination. Five of the patients died.
July 10, 2021: South Korean researchers report a 22-year-old man was killed by vaccine-induced myocarditis, the first such death reported in the literature.
July 22, 2021: CDC says it confirmed 282 postvaccination myocarditis cases in people aged 18 to 29.
July 28, 2021: Pfizer tells FDA of "important identified risk" of myocarditis and pericarditis after vaccination and discloses 17 deaths among the cases reported.
July 30, 2021: Data mining does not show a signal for myocarditis among adolescents 12 to 17, CDC and FDA say.
July 31, 2021: Australian experts recommend people be informed about possibility of myocarditis and pericarditis following vaccination.
August 2021: 311 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS, including seven deaths.
Aug. 4, 2021: UK delays recommending second dose for 16- and 17-year-olds.
Aug. 10, 2021: 15 children hospitalized at Boston Children's Hospital with postvaccination myocarditis between May 1 and July 15, 2021, researchers say.
Aug. 13, 2021: Canada identifies a safety signal for postvaccination myocarditis.
Aug. 17, 2021: Death of 27-year-old man following myocarditis after COVID-19 vaccination reported by U.S. researchers. Family declined an autopsy. No non-vaccination causes identified.
Aug. 18, 2021: U.S. researchers report death of 42-year-old man with myocarditis following Moderna vaccination. No other causes identified.
Aug. 18, 2021: Dr. Walensky and other U.S. government officials call for COVID-19 vaccine boosters to be cleared due to waning effectiveness.
Aug. 19, 2021: Two deaths from myocarditis following Pfizer vaccination, Pfizer reports to the EMA.
Aug. 19, 2021: Dr. Walensky notified of UK preference for Pfizer over Moderna for adolescents.
Aug. 23, 2021: FDA approves Pfizer's vaccine for people 16 and older. Approval theoretically has a higher bar than authorization. The agency says that analyses of reported events "will not be sufficient to assess known serious risks of myocarditis and pericarditis."
Aug. 24, 2021: South Korean authorities determine a young man died from myocarditis after Pfizer vaccination.
Aug. 30, 2021: One myocarditis case and one pericarditis case occurred among vaccinated trial participants, Pfizer reveals.
Aug. 30, 2021: Of 742 reports in VAERS that met the CDC case definition of myocarditis or myopericarditis after vaccination, 701 patients required hospitalization and 18 are still hospitalized, CDC official reports (pdf). Twenty-three percent of patients whose cases were detailed in VAERS reports were not known to have recovered at the time of the report.
Aug. 30, 2021: Highest rate of reported myopericarditis cases within seven days of a shot was 71.5 cases per million second Pfizer doses among boys aged 16 or 17, according to the CDC.
Aug. 30, 2021: Myocarditis and pericarditis cases in VSD rise to 115, with some patients still experiencing symptoms, CDC official says (pdf).
Aug. 30, 2021: Benefits of Pfizer's vaccine continue to outweigh the risks, CDC officials say. They estimate every million Pfizer shots among 16- to 17-year-olds will cause 73 cases of myocarditis but prevent more hospitalizations.
Aug. 30, 2021: Woman who died in New Zealand after Pfizer vaccination perished from myocarditis, an independent safety panel said.
September 2021: 377 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS, including 10 deaths.
Sept. 2, 2021: 654 reports of myocarditis or pericarditis in Pfizer's safety database, company says. Seventy-seven reports of myocarditis or myocarditis and pericarditis in Moderna's safety database, company says. Some patients, including a young male, died or had not recovered.
Sept. 2, 2021: Based on the reports and other data, a causal association between myocarditis/pericarditis and the mRNA vaccines is "considered of at least a reasonable possibility," the European Medicines Agency says.
Sept. 3, 2021: 67 myocarditis/pericarditis cases recorded in VSD among people aged 12 to 39, CDC says.
Sept. 8, 2021: Healthy, young boys face a higher risk of cardiac events from vaccines than from COVID-19, U.S. researchers find.
Sept. 9, 2021: U.S. President Joe Biden and his administration announce COVID-19 vaccine mandates for tens of millions of Americans, including many young, healthy people.
Sept. 15, 2021: Hong Kong changes recommendation from two doses of Pfizer to one dose after spike in myocarditis cases.
Sept. 17, 2021: Excess myocarditis risk for vaccinated males aged 16 or 17 "approaching 200 cases per million," FDA discloses, based on data from Optum health care claims database.
Sept. 21, 2021: "A clear signal for vaccine associated myocarditis has emerged," U.S. doctors say.
Sept. 22, 2021: One case of myocarditis reported after Pfizer booster, CDC official says. Not possible to determine the risk of rare side effects like myocarditis after boosting, CDC safety committee says.
Sept. 22, 2021: V-safe does not collect information on myocarditis, CDC official admits.
Sept. 22, 2021: FDA authorizes a Pfizer booster for millions of Americans.
Sept. 23, 2021: CDC officials say they don't know how many cases of myocarditis booster shots will cause. They project up to 26 cases per million boosters in 18- to 29-year-olds, but say more COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations would be prevented.
Sept. 24, 2021: CDC recommends Pfizer's booster for certain populations.
Sept. 27, 2021: New Zealand expert tells CDC it "seems to make huge sense to me" to delay second doses for young people.
Sept. 28, 2021: Pfizer vaccine may have "played a role" in death of 15-year-old California boy who died after receiving shot, medical examiner tells CDC.
Sept. 29, 2021: CDC meets on non-COVID vaccines.
Sept. 30, 2021: CDC falsely tells California officials that reports of postvaccination myocarditis did not come until June 2021.
October 2021: 321 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS, including five deaths.
Oct. 4, 2021: Identification of postvaccination myocarditis cases "does not change clinical decision-making," JAMA Internal Medicine editors say.
Oct. 7, 2021: Norway, Finland, and Sweden suspend use of Moderna's vaccine for younger people due to myocarditis risks.
Oct. 8, 2021: Iceland suspends use of Moderna's vaccine due to the heart inflammation.
Oct. 11, 2021: CDC director briefed on how Nordic countries are limiting vaccination due to myocarditis.
Oct. 12, 2021: Secret U.S. government meeting considering counting post-infection immunity as one or more vaccine doses ends with no update.
Oct. 14, 2021: FDA says more myocarditis/pericarditis cases have been reported to its Biologics Effectiveness and Safety Initiative system.
Oct. 21, 2021: The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs has identified 7 post-vaccination myocarditis cases, CDC publicly discloses, but no signal was established and all cases resolved.
Oct. 21, 2021: Highest rate of myocarditis following vaccination, based on VAERS data, is 69.1 cases per million second shots among males aged 16 or 17, Dr. Su says (pdf).
Oct. 21, 2021: About a quarter of cases in people 29 or younger reviewed in VAERS were not known to have recovered, according to available data, with 19 still hospitalized.
Oct. 21, 2021: Analyses of VSD data "indicate that both Pfizer and Moderna are associated with increased risk of myocarditis/pericarditis in 12–39-year-olds," Kaiser Permanente doctor says (pdf). Myocarditis/pericarditis cases in VSD rise to 138, with rates higher after Moderna vaccination compared to Pfizer vaccination.
Oct. 21, 2021: CDC says tens of millions of Americans should get a Pfizer or Moderna booster.
Oct. 22, 2021: Rates of reported cases among males aged 18 to 24 approximately 139 per million after Moderna second dose and 43 per million after Pfizer second dose, French researchers say.
Oct. 22, 2021: Norway says adolescents can't get second doses of Pfizer's vaccine.
Oct. 26, 2021: FDA says benefits of vaccination outweigh the risks. Projection of harm is highest for 16- and 17-year-old males, at 196 postvaccination myocarditis/pericarditis cases, and 171 myocarditis/pericarditis hospitalizations per million doses.
Oct. 26, 2021: CDC cardiologist Dr. Matthew Oster says "we don't know a whole lot" about myocarditis after COVID-19 vaccination. "We really need to see what the long-term outcomes for these kids will be," he added later.
Oct. 26, 2021: Dr. Michael Nelson, an FDA vaccine adviser, says he's concerned that some cases of postvaccination myocarditis aren't being reported.
Oct. 26, 2021: Dr. Eric Rubin, another FDA adviser, says "we’re never going to learn about how safe this vaccine is unless we start giving it."
Oct. 27, 2021: World Health Organization says the mRNA vaccines likely cause myocarditis.
Oct. 27, 2021: Prevalence of postvaccination myocarditis may be underestimated due to its reliance on symptoms for diagnosis, researchers say.
Oct. 28, 2021: Dr. Su says myocarditis reported after COVID-19 vaccination "has been neither severe nor persistent ... however, we'll need to wait to see if longer-term complications arise." He also says CDC does not know what percent of cases became chronic.
Oct. 29, 2021: FDA authorizes Pfizer's vaccine for children aged 5 to 11 despite dearth of efficacy data.
Oct. 30, 2021: Seventeen myocarditis patients seen at a single facility in Switzerland between March and July 2021, researchers report (pdf).
November 2021: 267 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS, including six deaths.
Nov. 1, 2021: Dr. Su says in email that "we're all doing our part to build confidence" in COVID-19 vaccines.
Nov. 1, 2021: English researchers estimate vaccinating children aged 12 to 17 will prevent 230 to 4,590 COVID-19 hospitalizations while causing 160 cases of myocarditis requiring hospitalization.
Nov. 1, 2021: Seven patients still had symptoms about a month after being diagnosed with myocarditis, U.S. researchers report.
Nov. 2, 2021: Nine deaths with myocarditis reported among people 29 and younger in VAERS. Most deaths had at least one potential non-vaccination cause while evaluation of two was still ongoing, CDC official says (pdf).
Nov. 2, 2021: Of postvaccination myocarditis patients who received cardiac MRIs, 72 percent had abnormal results, official says. Of patients who responded to CDC survey, 48 percent reported symptoms persisting after three months.
Nov. 2, 2021: Rates of myocarditis after Pfizer vaccination in children aged 5 to 11, if cleared, is unknown, CDC says (pdf). Rates in those 12 to 15 are as high as 108.5 per million second doses among males.
Nov. 2, 2021: CDC recommends virtually all children aged 5 to 11 receive a Pfizer series.
Nov. 3, 2021: 18-year-old previously healthy woman dies after COVID-19 vaccination with fulminate myocarditis, Washington state officials tell CDC. They attribute the myocarditis to asymptomatic COVID-19. Family declined an autopsy at one facility and King County Medical Examiner's Office says it did not perform an autopsy due to "social and complex" reasons.
Nov. 8, 2021: France halts Moderna's vaccine for people under 30.
Nov. 16, 2021: UK recommends second dose for 16- and 17-year-olds.
Nov. 18, 2021: Reported cases of myocarditis as high as 117 per million after doses of Moderna, and 47 per million doses of Pfizer, among males aged 18 to 29, German researchers say.
Nov. 19, 2021: Lower rates of myocarditis reported to VAERS after booster doses, CDC official says (pdf). Fifty-four reports were lodged, with some people not known to have recovered.
Nov. 19, 2021: CDC enables all adults to receive a booster of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines.
Nov. 23, 2021: Between Dec. 27, 2020 and Sept. 3, 2021, 113 patients with suspected myocarditis after COVID-19 vaccination presented to a single practice, German researchers report.
Nov. 26, 2021: Six people were reported to have died with myocarditis or pericarditis after Pfizer vaccination, the Netherlands Pharmacovigilance Centre Lareb reports. Other causes were found for two of the deaths.
Nov. 28, 2021: Hong Kong researchers find rate of 212 myocarditis cases among 12- to 17-year-old males per million Pfizer second doses.
Nov. 28, 2021: Three verified cases of post-booster myocarditis, CDC discloses in private emails.
Nov. 29, 2021: UK recommends second dose for 12 to 15-year-olds.
December 2021: 304 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS, including five deaths.
Dec. 1, 2021: 22-year-old woman spent 74 days in hospital with myocarditis after AstraZeneca vaccination, South Korean researchers report.
Dec. 2, 2021: European Medicines Agency says safety signal confirmed for postvaccination myocarditis.
Dec. 2, 2021: Israeli researchers estimate 106.9 myocarditis cases per million vaccinated males aged 16 to 29.
Dec. 9, 2021: FDA authorizes booster doses for 16- and 17-year-olds.
Dec. 9, 2021: CDC says 16- and 17-year-olds should get a booster shot. It does not mention myocarditis.
Dec. 14, 2021: 114 vaccinated people had myocarditis listed as a cause of death on their death certificate, English researchers report.
Dec. 16, 2021: Eight cases of myocarditis among children aged 5 to 11 confirmed, including one in a 6-year-old male, CDC official says.
Dec. 18, 2021: 26-year-old New Zealand man's death ruled as being caused by vaccine-induced myocarditis following an autopsy.
Dec. 25, 2021: Males under 40 face an excess risk of 101 cases per million second doses, UK researchers find.
Dec. 27, 2021: Incidence of myocarditis among males 12 to 39 is 195.4 per million second doses among males aged 12 to 39, U.S. researchers estimate. They identify cases missed by the CDC.Dec. 28, 2021: Risk of myocarditis much higher from Moderna's vaccine compared with Pfizer's shot, Canadian officials report.
Dec. 30, 2021: 21 patients with myocarditis after COVID-19 vaccination admitted to a single center between Dec. 15, 2020, and June 15, 2021, U.S. researchers report.
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