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Five Big Oil Stocks to Buy As OPEC+ Nations Cut Supply

Five big oil stocks to buy as OPEC+ nations cut supply have slipped to the lowest levels since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, while starting to rise…

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Five big oil stocks to buy as OPEC+ nations cut supply have slipped to the lowest levels since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, while starting to rise again with petroleum prices as Russia President’s Vladimir Putin proceeds with his military invasion of Ukraine and attacks on his neighboring nation’s power plants, residential areas and civilians.

Led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, the 23 oil-producing countries known as OPEC+ sparked criticism from President Joe Biden and other leaders in Washington who criticized rising energy prices and their negative economic impact on consumers and businesses. But members of the oil-producing OPEC+ bloc defended their decision by warning a weakening economy could depress oil demand.

Even though the “easy money” for many of the “old energy,” oil-weighted stocks has been earned after a “generational recovery” began in 2020, BofA Global Research wrote in a recent research note that exceptions include the recognition of value through asset quality, growth in sustainable free cash flow or balance sheet rehabilitation. Despite natural-gas-weighted exploration and production (E&P) oil companies offering the greatest absolute value opportunity in the U.S. energy industry, big oil stocks should benefit from future price increases. Recent intervention by OPEC+ may be an early signal of firming oil price support, BofA added.

Economic Trends Show Inflation Weighing on Markets and Affecting Five Big Oil Stocks to Buy as OPEC+ Nations Cut Supply

Interest rates are rising rapidly, with mortgage rates close to 7%, according to the Forecasts & Strategies investment newsletter led by Mark Skousen, a presidential fellow in economics at Chapman University. The 10-year Treasury rate is 4.24%, topping the 30-year rate of 4.15% and showing the start of a negative yield curve that is “bad news for the economy,” Skousen wrote in his latest edition.

Mark Skousen, Forecasts & Strategies chief and Ben Franklin scion, meets Paul Dykewicz.

“The Fed is famous for overdoing it, both when fighting recession by sending rates too low and fighting inflation by sending rates too high,” warned Skousen, who also leads the Five Star Trader advisory service that features both stock and option recommendations.

Fed Policies Aid Five Big Oil Stocks to Buy as OPEC+ Nations Cut Supply

The U.S. central bank and its monetary policy are largely responsible for the boom-bust cycle in the economy and on Wall Street, Skousen cautioned. The latest employment report was especially robust, adding 263,000 jobs as the unemployment rate fell to a multi-decade low of 3.5%, he added.

“This labor report confirmed what I have been saying with my gross output (GO) statistic, arguing that the United States is not in a recession quite yet, but it’s moving in that direction,” Skousen wrote.

The Fed is seeking to clamp down on high inflation that has topped 8% in the past year. Those who may have been inclined to trust the Fed’s past view that price hikes were “transitory” should note that the U.S. money supply rose 40% during the pandemic. Plus, Social Security payments will rise 8.7% in January 2023, boosting the buying power of 70 million American retirees but exacerbating inflation.

ExxonMobil Leads Five Big Oil Stocks to Buy as OPEC+ Nations Cut Supply and Russia Intensifies Attacks on Ukrainian Power Plants

After a bellwether quarter for both ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) and Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX), BofA expects both companies to reduce their risk exposure to an evolving macro-economic backdrop that is supported by “legacy industry underinvestment.” BofA predicted that sustained OPEC+ intervention, led by Saudi Arabia, will support oil prices.

“With that said, we see the relative investment case for both CVX and XOM diverging — with CVX anchored on legacy capital discipline and portfolio oil leverage, but with momentum swinging behind XOM, as five years of counter-cyclical investment drives divergence in free cash flow,” BofA opined. “While we see greater value with XOM, both names continue to offer low-risk leverage to higher long-term oil prices.

The dominant weight in the S&P energy sector is 1.4% for XOM and 1.0% for CVX, respectively. With both stocks moving quickly towards zero net debt within the next year, based on BofA estimates, the investment firm adjusted its price objectives to $136 per share for ExxonMobil and to $190 per share for Chevron. Those estimates assume BofA commodity team’s projected price of $100 per barrel for Brent in 2023, and a long-term $80 per barrel base case by 2025.

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com

President Biden recently pledged that the federal government would buy crude oil for the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) near $70 a barrel. The move showed bullishness from a “price floor” standpoint, said Jim Woods, who leads the Bullseye Stock Trader advisory service.

Paul Dykewicz meets with Jim Woods, head of Bullseye Stock Trader.

President Biden’s announcement gave oil traders a new reason to take long positions in the sector, Woods said. For income and share-price momentum, ExxonMobil is an Income Multiplier recommendation in his Intelligence Report investment newsletter.

Chevron Shines Among Five Big Oil Stocks to Buy as OPEC+ Nations Cut Supply and Russia Attacks Ukrainian Civilians

Both companies have reset their balance sheets to step up cash returns, mainly through share buy backs, even though that practice was criticized by President Biden last week as he urged oil companies to give motorists reduced prices at the pump. At present, the absolute scale of buy backs is the same for both companies at $15 billion.

In light of their different absolute market values, the per share impact for CVX is about 30% higher than for XOM, but does not reflect buyback capacity, according to BofA. Assuming both management teams maintain buy backs at the current pace, BofA estimates suggest CVX net debt stabilizes at $3-7 billion.

However, with greater cash flow growth from projects secured at the bottom of the cycle, BofA sees XOM net cash building to more than $30 billion by 2025 and topping $60 billion by 2030. This is exactly what happened to Chevron with a slowdown in organic spending in 2015 that led to an inflection in free cash flow and significant outperformance compared with ExxonMobil for most of 2016-19.

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com

ExxonMobil and Chevron Grow Free Cash Flow as Two of Five Big Oil Stocks to Buy as OPEC+ Nations Cut Supply

The two stocks have moved together but with growth in free cash flow, the funds a company can safely invest or distribute to shareholders. The investment firm projects a pending acceleration in free cash flow underpinning an extended period of relative outperformance for XOM, which remains BofA’s top U.S. oil major idea.

In addition, BofA has laid out in multiple reports a view that the long-term oil outlook is resetting after a period of industry underinvestment that “pushed control of oil markets” back toward OPEC+. With sustained intervention, risks to what the market is prepared to discount across the broader oil sector will skew higher, BofA added.

Using the midpoint of the recent trading range for Brent as a benchmark for where Saudi Arabia seemingly intervened to support a price range of $80-$100 per barrel, BofA sees $90 Brent as an upside level that would point to a potential rise of more than 20% for CVX and 30%-plus for XOM.

Marathon Oil Makes List of Five Big Oil Stocks to Buy As OPEC+ Nations Cut Supply

Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE: MRO) has benefited from a recent rally in the price of oil to become the top commodity recommendation in Skousen’s Five Star Trader advisory service. In early November, dividend-paying Marathon Oil is expected to report annual earnings of $4.75 per share, up more than 200%, on revenues of $8.3 billion, climbing 52%, Skousen wrote to his subscribers.

Houston-based Marathon Oil is “dirt cheap,” selling for a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.2, Skousen wrote. It has a price-to-earnings to growth ratio (PEG) of only 0.61. compared to the U.S. Oil and Gas industry’s 0.51, according to Zacks Research. Anything less than one is considered excellent, Skousen added.

A trailing 12-month (TTM) PEG ratio equals the P/E ratio divided by its growth for the past 12 months. The PEG ratio is aimed at giving a more complete picture of a company’s prospects than just a P/E ratio alone.

Marathon Oil is up 15.78% since Skousen recommended the position in his Five Star Trader advisory service on Aug. 14. BoA Global Research wrote that risks to Marathon Oil shares include oil and gas prices, a possible correction in refining profit margins, significant delays to the company’s new upstream projects that are critical to its production targets, as well as other factors.

 

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com

Shell is One of Five Big Oil Stocks to Buy as OPEC+ Nations Cut Supply

Shell plc (NYSE: SHEL), a multinational oil and gas company headquartered in London, England, beat earnings estimates by 5% when reporting quarterly results on Oct. 27. The company’s earnings and production businesses were strong but its liquefied natural gas (LNG) operation, which involves trading, came in slightly weak, said Michelle Connell, who leads Portia Capital Management, of Dallas, Texas.

Connell pointed out a shareholder-noteworthy announcement of a 15% increase in Shell’s dividend that will begin in 2023. It marks a reversal from when the company cut its dividend in 2020 to clean up its liabilities, she added.

While the dividend cut initially was viewed negatively, it gave the company room to expand its green energy business, Connell said.

Shell also announced it will begin a $4 billion share buyback. While this is not definitively a signal that the shares are cheap, it does telegraph that the company’s management does not consider the shares “too expensive” at this point, Connell continued.

Shell is the world’s fourth-largest oil company in the world, following the largest three: Saudi Aramco, Exxon Mobil and Chevron. Of these four, Connell called Shell the “most environmentally friendly.”

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com

Shell is targeting net-zero emissions by 2050, while Saudi Aramco, Exxon Mobil and Chevron are considered to be “very damaging” to the environment, Connell counseled. Plus, Shell will be building the largest green hydrogen plant in the European Union (EU), Connell added.

“Most oil stocks have appreciated so much this year that it’s difficult to buy them a discount,” Connell said. “However, Shell is selling at a significant discount to Exxon and some of its competitors.”

For example, Shell’s current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 4.86, while ExxonMobil’s current P/E is 9.12. The difference may stem from Shell being viewed by some investors as a pure European Union play, while Exxon and Chevron are seen as U.S. energy stocks, Connell said.

Michelle Connell heads Portia Capital Management, of Dallas, Texas.

ConocoPhillips Is One of Five Big Oil Stocks to Buy as OPEC+ Nations Cut Supply

BofA’s price objective of $140 per share on ConocoPhillips (NYSAE: COP) assumes $80 Brent and $75 West Texas Intermediate (WTI) long-term prices. The investment firm also assume long-term Henry Hub natural gas at $4.25.

Risks to BofA’s price objective are an uncertain oil and gas price and margin environment, significant delays to new upstream projects critical to its production targets and challenges in capturing the price environment due to cost pressures such as operating expenses, capital expenditures and taxation. Outperformance could occur through increased oil prices and cuts to capital expenditures, BofA wrote.

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com

Bivalent COVID-19 Booster Vaccines Could Help Sustain Oil Demand

A new bivalent COVID-19 booster in the United States offers protection against the omicron BA.5 variant, now the predominant strain of the virus. As a resident of Maryland, I arranged to receive the new booster after the state’s health department called me and informed me of the new booster’s availability at pharmacies near my house. Even though I obtained the vaccine on Oct. 16, there still are an additional 200-plus million Americans, who are eligible, but have not yet gained the protection offered by the latest booster.

COVID cases and deaths can hurt supply and demand for oil stocks, so availability of a new booster to enhance the vaccine’s efficacy could help protect from the virus. Cases in the country totaled 97,423,583, as deaths hit 1,070,138, as of Oct. 28. America has amassed the most COVID-19 cases and deaths of any nation.

Worldwide COVID-19 deaths totaled 6,587,818, as of Oct. 28, according to Johns Hopkins. Global COVID-19 cases reached 629,740,541.

Roughly 80.1% of the U.S. population, or 266,031,472, have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, as of Oct. 27, the CDC reported. People with at least the primary doses total 226,933,827, or 68.4%, of the U.S. population, according to the CDC. The United States also has given a bivalent COVID-19 booster vaccine to 22,197,891 people who are age 18 and up, accounting for 8.6% of the U.S. population in that age range.

The five big oil stocks to buy as OPEC+ nations cut supply seem positioned for free cash flow growth, regardless of whether President Biden opposes their share buybacks. Despite high inflation, Russia’s continued attacks in Ukraine and rising recession risk after 0.75% rate hikes by the Fed in June, July and on Sept. 21, the five big oil stocks to buy as OPEC+ nations cut supply appear posed to avoid geopolitical pitfalls in the coming months.

Paul Dykewicz, www.pauldykewicz.com, is an accomplished, award-winning journalist who has written for Dow Jones, the Wall Street JournalInvestor’s Business DailyUSA Today, the Journal of Commerce, Seeking Alpha, Guru Focus and other publications and websites. Paul, who can be followed on Twitter @PaulDykewicz, is the editor of StockInvestor.com and DividendInvestor.com, a writer for both websites and a columnist. He further is editorial director of Eagle Financial Publications in Washington, D.C., where he edits monthly investment newsletters, time-sensitive trading alerts, free e-letters and other investment reports. Paul previously served as business editor of Baltimore’s Daily Record newspaper. Paul also is the author of an inspirational book, “Holy Smokes! Golden Guidance from Notre Dame’s Championship Chaplain,” with a foreword by former national championship-winning football coach Lou Holtz. The book is great as a gift and is endorsed by Joe Montana, Joe Theismann, Ara Parseghian, “Rocket” Ismail, Reggie Brooks, Dick Vitale and many othersCall 202-677-4457 for multiple-book pricing.

The post Five Big Oil Stocks to Buy As OPEC+ Nations Cut Supply appeared first on Stock Investor.

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Analyst reviews Apple stock price target amid challenges

Here’s what could happen to Apple shares next.

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They said it was bound to happen.

It was Jan. 11, 2024 when software giant Microsoft  (MSFT)  briefly passed Apple  (AAPL)  as the most valuable company in the world.

Microsoft's stock closed 0.5% higher, giving it a market valuation of $2.859 trillion. 

It rose as much as 2% during the session and the company was briefly worth $2.903 trillion. Apple closed 0.3% lower, giving the company a market capitalization of $2.886 trillion. 

"It was inevitable that Microsoft would overtake Apple since Microsoft is growing faster and has more to benefit from the generative AI revolution," D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria said at the time, according to Reuters.

The two tech titans have jostled for top spot over the years and Microsoft was ahead at last check, with a market cap of $3.085 trillion, compared with Apple's value of $2.684 trillion.

Analysts noted that Apple had been dealing with weakening demand, including for the iPhone, the company’s main source of revenue. 

Demand in China, a major market, has slumped as the country's economy makes a slow recovery from the pandemic and competition from Huawei.

Sales in China of Apple's iPhone fell by 24% in the first six weeks of 2024 compared with a year earlier, according to research firm Counterpoint, as the company contended with stiff competition from a resurgent Huawei "while getting squeezed in the middle on aggressive pricing from the likes of OPPO, vivo and Xiaomi," said senior Analyst Mengmeng Zhang.

“Although the iPhone 15 is a great device, it has no significant upgrades from the previous version, so consumers feel fine holding on to the older-generation iPhones for now," he said.

A man scrolling through Netflix on an Apple iPad Pro. Photo by Phil Barker/Future Publishing via Getty Images.

Future Publishing/Getty Images

Big plans for China

Counterpoint said that the first six weeks of 2023 saw abnormally high numbers with significant unit sales being deferred from December 2022 due to production issues.

Apple is planning to open its eighth store in Shanghai – and its 47th across China – on March 21.

Related: Tech News Now: OpenAI says Musk contract 'never existed', Xiaomi's EV, and more

The company also plans to expand its research centre in Shanghai to support all of its product lines and open a new lab in southern tech hub Shenzhen later this year, according to the South China Morning Post.

Meanwhile, over in Europe, Apple announced changes to comply with the European Union's Digital Markets Act (DMA), which went into effect last week, Reuters reported on March 12.

Beginning this spring, software developers operating in Europe will be able to distribute apps to EU customers directly from their own websites instead of through the App Store.

"To reflect the DMA’s changes, users in the EU can install apps from alternative app marketplaces in iOS 17.4 and later," Apple said on its website, referring to the software platform that runs iPhones and iPads. 

"Users will be able to download an alternative marketplace app from the marketplace developer’s website," the company said.

Apple has also said it will appeal a $2 billion EU antitrust fine for thwarting competition from Spotify  (SPOT)  and other music streaming rivals via restrictions on the App Store.

The company's shares have suffered amid all this upheaval, but some analysts still see good things in Apple's future.

Bank of America Securities confirmed its positive stance on Apple, maintaining a buy rating with a steady price target of $225, according to Investing.com

The firm's analysis highlighted Apple's pricing strategy evolution since the introduction of the first iPhone in 2007, with initial prices set at $499 for the 4GB model and $599 for the 8GB model.

BofA said that Apple has consistently launched new iPhone models, including the Pro/Pro Max versions, to target the premium market. 

Analyst says Apple selloff 'overdone'

Concurrently, prices for previous models are typically reduced by about $100 with each new release. 

This strategy, coupled with installment plans from Apple and carriers, has contributed to the iPhone's installed base reaching a record 1.2 billion in 2023, the firm said.

More Tech Stocks:

Apple has effectively shifted its sales mix toward higher-value units despite experiencing slower unit sales, BofA said.

This trend is expected to persist and could help mitigate potential unit sales weaknesses, particularly in China. 

BofA also noted Apple's dominance in the high-end market, maintaining a market share of over 90% in the $1,000 and above price band for the past three years.

The firm also cited the anticipation of a multi-year iPhone cycle propelled by next-generation AI technology, robust services growth, and the potential for margin expansion.

On Monday, Evercore ISI analysts said they believed that the sell-off in the iPhone maker’s shares may be “overdone.”

The firm said that investors' growing preference for AI-focused stocks like Nvidia  (NVDA)  has led to a reallocation of funds away from Apple. 

In addition, Evercore said concerns over weakening demand in China, where Apple may be losing market share in the smartphone segment, have affected investor sentiment.

And then ongoing regulatory issues continue to have an impact on investor confidence in the world's second-biggest company.

“We think the sell-off is rather overdone, while we suspect there is strong valuation support at current levels to down 10%, there are three distinct drivers that could unlock upside on the stock from here – a) Cap allocation, b) AI inferencing, and c) Risk-off/defensive shift," the firm said in a research note.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Major typhoid fever surveillance study in sub-Saharan Africa indicates need for the introduction of typhoid conjugate vaccines in endemic countries

There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high…

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There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high burden combined with the threat of typhoid strains resistant to antibiotic treatment calls for stronger prevention strategies, including the use and implementation of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) in endemic settings along with improvements in access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene.

Credit: IVI

There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high burden combined with the threat of typhoid strains resistant to antibiotic treatment calls for stronger prevention strategies, including the use and implementation of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) in endemic settings along with improvements in access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene.

 

The findings from this 4-year study, the Severe Typhoid in Africa (SETA) program, offers new typhoid fever burden estimates from six countries: Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Ghana, Madagascar, and Nigeria, with four countries recording more than 100 cases for every 100,000 person-years of observation, which is considered a high burden. The highest incidence of typhoid was found in DRC with 315 cases per 100,000 people while children between 2-14 years of age were shown to be at highest risk across all 25 study sites.

 

There are an estimated 12.5 to 16.3 million cases of typhoid every year with 140,000 deaths. However, with generic symptoms such as fever, fatigue, and abdominal pain, and the need for blood culture sampling to make a definitive diagnosis, it is difficult for governments to capture the true burden of typhoid in their countries.

 

“Our goal through SETA was to address these gaps in typhoid disease burden data,” said lead author Dr. Florian Marks, Deputy Director General of the International Vaccine Institute (IVI). “Our estimates indicate that introduction of TCV in endemic settings would go to lengths in protecting communities, especially school-aged children, against this potentially deadly—but preventable—disease.”

 

In addition to disease incidence, this study also showed that the emergence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Salmonella Typhi, the bacteria that causes typhoid fever, has led to more reliance beyond the traditional first line of antibiotic treatment. If left untreated, severe cases of the disease can lead to intestinal perforation and even death. This suggests that prevention through vaccination may play a critical role in not only protecting against typhoid fever but reducing the spread of drug-resistant strains of the bacteria.

 

There are two TCVs prequalified by the World Health Organization (WHO) and available through Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. In February 2024, IVI and SK bioscience announced that a third TCV, SKYTyphoid™, also achieved WHO PQ, paving the way for public procurement and increasing the global supply.

 

Alongside the SETA disease burden study, IVI has been working with colleagues in three African countries to show the real-world impact of TCV vaccination. These studies include a cluster-randomized trial in Agogo, Ghana and two effectiveness studies following mass vaccination in Kisantu, DRC and Imerintsiatosika, Madagascar.

 

Dr. Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse, Associate Director General at IVI and Head of the Real-World Evidence Department, explains, “Through these vaccine effectiveness studies, we aim to show the full public health value of TCV in settings that are directly impacted by a high burden of typhoid fever.” He adds, “Our final objective of course is to eliminate typhoid or to at least reduce the burden to low incidence levels, and that’s what we are attempting in Fiji with an island-wide vaccination campaign.”

 

As more countries in typhoid endemic countries, namely in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, consider TCV in national immunization programs, these data will help inform evidence-based policy decisions around typhoid prevention and control.

 

###

 

About the International Vaccine Institute (IVI)
The International Vaccine Institute (IVI) is a non-profit international organization established in 1997 at the initiative of the United Nations Development Programme with a mission to discover, develop, and deliver safe, effective, and affordable vaccines for global health.

IVI’s current portfolio includes vaccines at all stages of pre-clinical and clinical development for infectious diseases that disproportionately affect low- and middle-income countries, such as cholera, typhoid, chikungunya, shigella, salmonella, schistosomiasis, hepatitis E, HPV, COVID-19, and more. IVI developed the world’s first low-cost oral cholera vaccine, pre-qualified by the World Health Organization (WHO) and developed a new-generation typhoid conjugate vaccine that is recently pre-qualified by WHO.

IVI is headquartered in Seoul, Republic of Korea with a Europe Regional Office in Sweden, a Country Office in Austria, and Collaborating Centers in Ghana, Ethiopia, and Madagascar. 39 countries and the WHO are members of IVI, and the governments of the Republic of Korea, Sweden, India, Finland, and Thailand provide state funding. For more information, please visit https://www.ivi.int.

 

CONTACT

Aerie Em, Global Communications & Advocacy Manager
+82 2 881 1386 | aerie.em@ivi.int


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US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever… And Debt Explodes

US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever… And Debt Explodes

Earlier today, CNBC’s…

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US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever... And Debt Explodes

Earlier today, CNBC's Brian Sullivan took a horse dose of Red Pills when, about six months after our readers, he learned that the US is issuing $1 trillion in debt every 100 days, which prompted him to rage tweet, (or rageX, not sure what the proper term is here) the following:

We’ve added 60% to national debt since 2018. Germany - a country with major economic woes - added ‘just’ 32%.   

Maybe it will never matter.   Maybe MMT is real.   Maybe we just cancel or inflate it out. Maybe career real estate borrowers or career politicians aren’t the answer.

I have no idea.  Only time will tell.   But it’s going to be fascinating to watch it play out.

He is right: it will be fascinating, and the latest budget deficit data simply confirmed that the day of reckoning will come very soon, certainly sooner than the two years that One River's Eric Peters predicted this weekend for the coming "US debt sustainability crisis."

According to the US Treasury, in February, the US collected $271 billion in various tax receipts, and spent $567 billion, more than double what it collected.

The two charts below show the divergence in US tax receipts which have flatlined (on a trailing 6M basis) since the covid pandemic in 2020 (with occasional stimmy-driven surges)...

... and spending which is about 50% higher compared to where it was in 2020.

The end result is that in February, the budget deficit rose to $296.3 billion, up 12.9% from a year prior, and the second highest February deficit on record.

And the punchline: on a cumulative basis, the budget deficit in fiscal 2024 which began on October 1, 2023 is now $828 billion, the second largest cumulative deficit through February on record, surpassed only by the peak covid year of 2021.

But wait there's more: because in a world where the US is spending more than twice what it is collecting, the endgame is clear: debt collapse, and while it won't be tomorrow, or the week after, it is coming... and it's also why the US is now selling $1 trillion in debt every 100 days just to keep operating (and absorbing all those millions of illegal immigrants who will keep voting democrat to preserve the socialist system of the US, so beloved by the Soros clan).

And it gets even worse, because we are now in the ponzi finance stage of the Minsky cycle, with total interest on the debt annualizing well above $1 trillion, and rising every day

... having already surpassed total US defense spending and soon to surpass total health spending and, finally all social security spending, the largest spending category of all, which means that US debt will now rise exponentially higher until the inevitable moment when the US dollar loses its reserve status and it all comes crashing down.

We conclude with another observation by CNBC's Brian Sullivan, who quotes an email by a DC strategist...

.. which lays out the proposed Biden budget as follows:

The budget deficit will growth another $16 TRILLION over next 10 years. Thats *with* the proposed massive tax hikes.

Without them the deficit will grow $19 trillion.

That's why you will hear the "deficit is being reduced by $3 trillion" over the decade.

No family budget or business could exist with this kind of math.

Of course, in the long run, neither can the US... and since neither party will ever cut the spending which everyone by now is so addicted to, the best anyone can do is start planning for the endgame.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/12/2024 - 18:40

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