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Five Big Oil Stocks to Buy As OPEC+ Nations Cut Supply

Five big oil stocks to buy as OPEC+ nations cut supply have slipped to the lowest levels since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, while starting to rise…



Five big oil stocks to buy as OPEC+ nations cut supply have slipped to the lowest levels since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, while starting to rise again with petroleum prices as Russia President’s Vladimir Putin proceeds with his military invasion of Ukraine and attacks on his neighboring nation’s power plants, residential areas and civilians.

Led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, the 23 oil-producing countries known as OPEC+ sparked criticism from President Joe Biden and other leaders in Washington who criticized rising energy prices and their negative economic impact on consumers and businesses. But members of the oil-producing OPEC+ bloc defended their decision by warning a weakening economy could depress oil demand.

Even though the “easy money” for many of the “old energy,” oil-weighted stocks has been earned after a “generational recovery” began in 2020, BofA Global Research wrote in a recent research note that exceptions include the recognition of value through asset quality, growth in sustainable free cash flow or balance sheet rehabilitation. Despite natural-gas-weighted exploration and production (E&P) oil companies offering the greatest absolute value opportunity in the U.S. energy industry, big oil stocks should benefit from future price increases. Recent intervention by OPEC+ may be an early signal of firming oil price support, BofA added.

Economic Trends Show Inflation Weighing on Markets and Affecting Five Big Oil Stocks to Buy as OPEC+ Nations Cut Supply

Interest rates are rising rapidly, with mortgage rates close to 7%, according to the Forecasts & Strategies investment newsletter led by Mark Skousen, a presidential fellow in economics at Chapman University. The 10-year Treasury rate is 4.24%, topping the 30-year rate of 4.15% and showing the start of a negative yield curve that is “bad news for the economy,” Skousen wrote in his latest edition.

Mark Skousen, Forecasts & Strategies chief and Ben Franklin scion, meets Paul Dykewicz.

“The Fed is famous for overdoing it, both when fighting recession by sending rates too low and fighting inflation by sending rates too high,” warned Skousen, who also leads the Five Star Trader advisory service that features both stock and option recommendations.

Fed Policies Aid Five Big Oil Stocks to Buy as OPEC+ Nations Cut Supply

The U.S. central bank and its monetary policy are largely responsible for the boom-bust cycle in the economy and on Wall Street, Skousen cautioned. The latest employment report was especially robust, adding 263,000 jobs as the unemployment rate fell to a multi-decade low of 3.5%, he added.

“This labor report confirmed what I have been saying with my gross output (GO) statistic, arguing that the United States is not in a recession quite yet, but it’s moving in that direction,” Skousen wrote.

The Fed is seeking to clamp down on high inflation that has topped 8% in the past year. Those who may have been inclined to trust the Fed’s past view that price hikes were “transitory” should note that the U.S. money supply rose 40% during the pandemic. Plus, Social Security payments will rise 8.7% in January 2023, boosting the buying power of 70 million American retirees but exacerbating inflation.

ExxonMobil Leads Five Big Oil Stocks to Buy as OPEC+ Nations Cut Supply and Russia Intensifies Attacks on Ukrainian Power Plants

After a bellwether quarter for both ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) and Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX), BofA expects both companies to reduce their risk exposure to an evolving macro-economic backdrop that is supported by “legacy industry underinvestment.” BofA predicted that sustained OPEC+ intervention, led by Saudi Arabia, will support oil prices.

“With that said, we see the relative investment case for both CVX and XOM diverging — with CVX anchored on legacy capital discipline and portfolio oil leverage, but with momentum swinging behind XOM, as five years of counter-cyclical investment drives divergence in free cash flow,” BofA opined. “While we see greater value with XOM, both names continue to offer low-risk leverage to higher long-term oil prices.

The dominant weight in the S&P energy sector is 1.4% for XOM and 1.0% for CVX, respectively. With both stocks moving quickly towards zero net debt within the next year, based on BofA estimates, the investment firm adjusted its price objectives to $136 per share for ExxonMobil and to $190 per share for Chevron. Those estimates assume BofA commodity team’s projected price of $100 per barrel for Brent in 2023, and a long-term $80 per barrel base case by 2025.

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President Biden recently pledged that the federal government would buy crude oil for the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) near $70 a barrel. The move showed bullishness from a “price floor” standpoint, said Jim Woods, who leads the Bullseye Stock Trader advisory service.

Paul Dykewicz meets with Jim Woods, head of Bullseye Stock Trader.

President Biden’s announcement gave oil traders a new reason to take long positions in the sector, Woods said. For income and share-price momentum, ExxonMobil is an Income Multiplier recommendation in his Intelligence Report investment newsletter.

Chevron Shines Among Five Big Oil Stocks to Buy as OPEC+ Nations Cut Supply and Russia Attacks Ukrainian Civilians

Both companies have reset their balance sheets to step up cash returns, mainly through share buy backs, even though that practice was criticized by President Biden last week as he urged oil companies to give motorists reduced prices at the pump. At present, the absolute scale of buy backs is the same for both companies at $15 billion.

In light of their different absolute market values, the per share impact for CVX is about 30% higher than for XOM, but does not reflect buyback capacity, according to BofA. Assuming both management teams maintain buy backs at the current pace, BofA estimates suggest CVX net debt stabilizes at $3-7 billion.

However, with greater cash flow growth from projects secured at the bottom of the cycle, BofA sees XOM net cash building to more than $30 billion by 2025 and topping $60 billion by 2030. This is exactly what happened to Chevron with a slowdown in organic spending in 2015 that led to an inflection in free cash flow and significant outperformance compared with ExxonMobil for most of 2016-19.

Chart courtesy of

ExxonMobil and Chevron Grow Free Cash Flow as Two of Five Big Oil Stocks to Buy as OPEC+ Nations Cut Supply

The two stocks have moved together but with growth in free cash flow, the funds a company can safely invest or distribute to shareholders. The investment firm projects a pending acceleration in free cash flow underpinning an extended period of relative outperformance for XOM, which remains BofA’s top U.S. oil major idea.

In addition, BofA has laid out in multiple reports a view that the long-term oil outlook is resetting after a period of industry underinvestment that “pushed control of oil markets” back toward OPEC+. With sustained intervention, risks to what the market is prepared to discount across the broader oil sector will skew higher, BofA added.

Using the midpoint of the recent trading range for Brent as a benchmark for where Saudi Arabia seemingly intervened to support a price range of $80-$100 per barrel, BofA sees $90 Brent as an upside level that would point to a potential rise of more than 20% for CVX and 30%-plus for XOM.

Marathon Oil Makes List of Five Big Oil Stocks to Buy As OPEC+ Nations Cut Supply

Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE: MRO) has benefited from a recent rally in the price of oil to become the top commodity recommendation in Skousen’s Five Star Trader advisory service. In early November, dividend-paying Marathon Oil is expected to report annual earnings of $4.75 per share, up more than 200%, on revenues of $8.3 billion, climbing 52%, Skousen wrote to his subscribers.

Houston-based Marathon Oil is “dirt cheap,” selling for a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.2, Skousen wrote. It has a price-to-earnings to growth ratio (PEG) of only 0.61. compared to the U.S. Oil and Gas industry’s 0.51, according to Zacks Research. Anything less than one is considered excellent, Skousen added.

A trailing 12-month (TTM) PEG ratio equals the P/E ratio divided by its growth for the past 12 months. The PEG ratio is aimed at giving a more complete picture of a company’s prospects than just a P/E ratio alone.

Marathon Oil is up 15.78% since Skousen recommended the position in his Five Star Trader advisory service on Aug. 14. BoA Global Research wrote that risks to Marathon Oil shares include oil and gas prices, a possible correction in refining profit margins, significant delays to the company’s new upstream projects that are critical to its production targets, as well as other factors.


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Shell is One of Five Big Oil Stocks to Buy as OPEC+ Nations Cut Supply

Shell plc (NYSE: SHEL), a multinational oil and gas company headquartered in London, England, beat earnings estimates by 5% when reporting quarterly results on Oct. 27. The company’s earnings and production businesses were strong but its liquefied natural gas (LNG) operation, which involves trading, came in slightly weak, said Michelle Connell, who leads Portia Capital Management, of Dallas, Texas.

Connell pointed out a shareholder-noteworthy announcement of a 15% increase in Shell’s dividend that will begin in 2023. It marks a reversal from when the company cut its dividend in 2020 to clean up its liabilities, she added.

While the dividend cut initially was viewed negatively, it gave the company room to expand its green energy business, Connell said.

Shell also announced it will begin a $4 billion share buyback. While this is not definitively a signal that the shares are cheap, it does telegraph that the company’s management does not consider the shares “too expensive” at this point, Connell continued.

Shell is the world’s fourth-largest oil company in the world, following the largest three: Saudi Aramco, Exxon Mobil and Chevron. Of these four, Connell called Shell the “most environmentally friendly.”

Chart courtesy of

Shell is targeting net-zero emissions by 2050, while Saudi Aramco, Exxon Mobil and Chevron are considered to be “very damaging” to the environment, Connell counseled. Plus, Shell will be building the largest green hydrogen plant in the European Union (EU), Connell added.

“Most oil stocks have appreciated so much this year that it’s difficult to buy them a discount,” Connell said. “However, Shell is selling at a significant discount to Exxon and some of its competitors.”

For example, Shell’s current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 4.86, while ExxonMobil’s current P/E is 9.12. The difference may stem from Shell being viewed by some investors as a pure European Union play, while Exxon and Chevron are seen as U.S. energy stocks, Connell said.

Michelle Connell heads Portia Capital Management, of Dallas, Texas.

ConocoPhillips Is One of Five Big Oil Stocks to Buy as OPEC+ Nations Cut Supply

BofA’s price objective of $140 per share on ConocoPhillips (NYSAE: COP) assumes $80 Brent and $75 West Texas Intermediate (WTI) long-term prices. The investment firm also assume long-term Henry Hub natural gas at $4.25.

Risks to BofA’s price objective are an uncertain oil and gas price and margin environment, significant delays to new upstream projects critical to its production targets and challenges in capturing the price environment due to cost pressures such as operating expenses, capital expenditures and taxation. Outperformance could occur through increased oil prices and cuts to capital expenditures, BofA wrote.

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Bivalent COVID-19 Booster Vaccines Could Help Sustain Oil Demand

A new bivalent COVID-19 booster in the United States offers protection against the omicron BA.5 variant, now the predominant strain of the virus. As a resident of Maryland, I arranged to receive the new booster after the state’s health department called me and informed me of the new booster’s availability at pharmacies near my house. Even though I obtained the vaccine on Oct. 16, there still are an additional 200-plus million Americans, who are eligible, but have not yet gained the protection offered by the latest booster.

COVID cases and deaths can hurt supply and demand for oil stocks, so availability of a new booster to enhance the vaccine’s efficacy could help protect from the virus. Cases in the country totaled 97,423,583, as deaths hit 1,070,138, as of Oct. 28. America has amassed the most COVID-19 cases and deaths of any nation.

Worldwide COVID-19 deaths totaled 6,587,818, as of Oct. 28, according to Johns Hopkins. Global COVID-19 cases reached 629,740,541.

Roughly 80.1% of the U.S. population, or 266,031,472, have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, as of Oct. 27, the CDC reported. People with at least the primary doses total 226,933,827, or 68.4%, of the U.S. population, according to the CDC. The United States also has given a bivalent COVID-19 booster vaccine to 22,197,891 people who are age 18 and up, accounting for 8.6% of the U.S. population in that age range.

The five big oil stocks to buy as OPEC+ nations cut supply seem positioned for free cash flow growth, regardless of whether President Biden opposes their share buybacks. Despite high inflation, Russia’s continued attacks in Ukraine and rising recession risk after 0.75% rate hikes by the Fed in June, July and on Sept. 21, the five big oil stocks to buy as OPEC+ nations cut supply appear posed to avoid geopolitical pitfalls in the coming months.

Paul Dykewicz,, is an accomplished, award-winning journalist who has written for Dow Jones, the Wall Street JournalInvestor’s Business DailyUSA Today, the Journal of Commerce, Seeking Alpha, Guru Focus and other publications and websites. Paul, who can be followed on Twitter @PaulDykewicz, is the editor of and, a writer for both websites and a columnist. He further is editorial director of Eagle Financial Publications in Washington, D.C., where he edits monthly investment newsletters, time-sensitive trading alerts, free e-letters and other investment reports. Paul previously served as business editor of Baltimore’s Daily Record newspaper. Paul also is the author of an inspirational book, “Holy Smokes! Golden Guidance from Notre Dame’s Championship Chaplain,” with a foreword by former national championship-winning football coach Lou Holtz. The book is great as a gift and is endorsed by Joe Montana, Joe Theismann, Ara Parseghian, “Rocket” Ismail, Reggie Brooks, Dick Vitale and many othersCall 202-677-4457 for multiple-book pricing.

The post Five Big Oil Stocks to Buy As OPEC+ Nations Cut Supply appeared first on Stock Investor.

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Four burning questions about the future of the $16.5B Novo-Catalent deal

To build or to buy? That’s a classic question for pharma boardrooms, and Novo Nordisk is going with both.
Beyond spending billions of dollars to expand…



To build or to buy? That’s a classic question for pharma boardrooms, and Novo Nordisk is going with both.

Beyond spending billions of dollars to expand its own production capacity for its weight loss drugs, the Danish drugmaker said Monday it will pay $11 billion to acquire three manufacturing plants from Catalent. It’s part of a broader $16.5 billion deal with Novo Holdings, the investment arm of the pharma’s parent group, which agreed to acquire the contract manufacturer and take it private.

It’s a big deal for all parties, with potential ripple effects across the biotech ecosystem. Here’s a look at some of the most pressing questions to watch after Monday’s announcement.

Why did Novo do this?

Novo Holdings isn’t the most obvious buyer for Catalent, particularly after last year’s on-and-off M&A interest from the serial acquirer Danaher. But the deal could benefit both Novo Holdings and Novo Nordisk.

Novo Nordisk’s biggest challenge has been simply making enough of the weight loss drug Wegovy and diabetes therapy Ozempic. On last week’s earnings call, Novo Nordisk CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen said the company isn’t constrained by capital in its efforts to boost manufacturing. Rather, the main challenge is the limited amount of capabilities out there, he said.

“Most pharmaceutical companies in the world would be shopping among the same manufacturers,” he said. “There’s not an unlimited amount of machinery and people to build it.”

While Novo was already one of Catalent’s major customers, the manufacturer has been hamstrung by its own balance sheet. With roughly $5 billion in debt on its books, it’s had to juggle paying down debt with sufficiently investing in its facilities. That’s been particularly challenging in keeping pace with soaring demand for GLP-1 drugs.

Novo, on the other hand, has the balance sheet to funnel as much money as needed into the plants in Italy, Belgium, and Indiana. It’s also struggled to make enough of its popular GLP-1 drugs to meet their soaring demand, with documented shortages of both Ozempic and Wegovy.

The impact won’t be immediate. The parties expect the deal to close near the end of 2024. Novo Nordisk said it expects the three new sites to “gradually increase Novo Nordisk’s filling capacity from 2026 and onwards.”

As for the rest of Catalent — nearly 50 other sites employing thousands of workers — Novo Holdings will take control. The group previously acquired Altasciences in 2021 and Ritedose in 2022, so the Catalent deal builds on a core investing interest in biopharma services, Novo Holdings CEO Kasim Kutay told Endpoints News.

Kasim Kutay

When asked about possible site closures or layoffs, Kutay said the team hasn’t thought about that.

“That’s not our track record. Our track record is to invest in quality businesses and help them grow,” he said. “There’s always stuff to do with any asset you own, but we haven’t bought this company to do some of the stuff you’re talking about.”

What does it mean for Catalent’s customers? 

Until the deal closes, Catalent will operate as a standalone business. After it closes, Novo Nordisk said it will honor its customer obligations at the three sites, a spokesperson said. But they didn’t answer a question about what happens when those contracts expire.

The wrinkle is the long-term future of the three plants that Novo Nordisk is paying for. Those sites don’t exclusively pump out Wegovy, but that could be the logical long-term aim for the Danish drugmaker.

The ideal scenario is that pricing and timelines remain the same for customers, said Nicole Paulk, CEO of the gene therapy startup Siren Biotechnology.

Nicole Paulk

“The name of the group that you’re going to send your check to is now going to be Novo Holdings instead of Catalent, but otherwise everything remains the same,” Paulk told Endpoints. “That’s the best-case scenario.”

In a worst case, Paulk said she feared the new owners could wind up closing sites or laying off Catalent groups. That could create some uncertainty for customers looking for a long-term manufacturing partner.

Are shareholders and regulators happy? 

The pandemic was a wild ride for Catalent’s stock, with shares surging from about $40 to $140 and then crashing back to earth. The $63.50 share price for the takeover is a happy ending depending on the investor.

On that point, the investing giant Elliott Investment Management is satisfied. Marc Steinberg, a partner at Elliott, called the agreement “an outstanding outcome” that “clearly maximizes value for Catalent stockholders” in a statement.

Elliott helped kick off a strategic review last August that culminated in the sale agreement. Compared to Catalent’s stock price before that review started, the deal pays a nearly 40% premium.

Alessandro Maselli

But this is hardly a victory lap for CEO Alessandro Maselli, who took over in July 2022 when Catalent’s stock price was north of $100. Novo’s takeover is a tacit acknowledgment that Maselli could never fully right the ship, as operational problems plagued the company throughout 2023 while it was limited by its debt.

Additional regulatory filings in the next few weeks could give insight into just how competitive the sale process was. William Blair analysts said they don’t expect a competing bidder “given the organic investments already being pursued at other leading CDMOs and the breadth and scale of Catalent’s operations.”

The Blair analysts also noted the companies likely “expect to spend some time educating relevant government agencies” about the deal, given the lengthy closing timeline. Given Novo Nordisk’s ascent — it’s now one of Europe’s most valuable companies — paired with the limited number of large contract manufacturers, antitrust regulators could be interested in taking a close look.

Are Catalent’s problems finally a thing of the past?

Catalent ran into a mix of financial and operational problems over the past year that played no small part in attracting the interest of an activist like Elliott.

Now with a deal in place, how quickly can Novo rectify those problems? Some of the challenges were driven by the demands of being a publicly traded company, like failing to meet investors’ revenue expectations or even filing earnings reports on time.

But Catalent also struggled with its business at times, with a range of manufacturing delays, inspection reports and occasionally writing down acquisitions that didn’t pan out. Novo’s deep pockets will go a long way to a turnaround, but only the future will tell if all these issues are fixed.

Kutay said his team is excited by the opportunity and was satisfied with the due diligence it did on the company.

“We believe we’re buying a strong company with a good management team and good prospects,” Kutay said. “If that wasn’t the case, I don’t think we’d be here.”

Amber Tong and Reynald Castañeda contributed reporting.

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Petrina Kamya, Ph.D., Head of AI Platforms at Insilico Medicine, presents at BIO CEO & Investor Conference

Petrina Kamya, PhD, Head of AI Platforms and President of Insilico Medicine Canada, will present at the BIO CEO & Investor Conference happening Feb….



Petrina Kamya, PhD, Head of AI Platforms and President of Insilico Medicine Canada, will present at the BIO CEO & Investor Conference happening Feb. 26-27 at the New York Marriott Marquis in New York City. Dr. Kamya will speak as part of the panel “AI within Biopharma: Separating Value from Hype,” on Feb. 27, 1pm ET along with Michael Nally, CEO of Generate: Biomedicines and Liz Schwarzbach, PhD, CBO of BigHat Biosciences.

Credit: Insilico Medicine

Petrina Kamya, PhD, Head of AI Platforms and President of Insilico Medicine Canada, will present at the BIO CEO & Investor Conference happening Feb. 26-27 at the New York Marriott Marquis in New York City. Dr. Kamya will speak as part of the panel “AI within Biopharma: Separating Value from Hype,” on Feb. 27, 1pm ET along with Michael Nally, CEO of Generate: Biomedicines and Liz Schwarzbach, PhD, CBO of BigHat Biosciences.

The session will look at how the latest artificial intelligence (AI) tools – including generative AI and large language models – are currently being used to advance the discovery and design of new drugs, and which technologies are still in development. 

The BIO CEO & Investor Conference brings together over 1,000 attendees and more than 700 companies across industry and institutional investment to discuss the future investment landscape of biotechnology. Sessions focus on topics such as therapeutic advancements, market outlook, and policy priorities.

Insilico Medicine is a leading, clinical stage AI-driven drug discovery company that has raised over $400m in investments since it was founded in 2014. Dr. Kamya leads the development of the Company’s end-to-end generative AI platform, Pharma.AI from Insilico’s AI R&D Center in Montreal. Using modern machine learning techniques in the context of chemistry and biology, the platform has driven the discovery and design of 30+ new therapies, with five in clinical stages – for cancer, fibrosis, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), and COVID-19. The Company’s lead drug, for the chronic, rare lung condition idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, is the first AI-designed drug for an AI-discovered target to reach Phase II clinical trials with patients. Nine of the top 20 pharmaceutical companies have used Insilico’s AI platform to advance their programs, and the Company has a number of major strategic licensing deals around its AI-designed therapeutic assets, including with Sanofi, Exelixis and Menarini. 


About Insilico Medicine

Insilico Medicine, a global clinical stage biotechnology company powered by generative AI, is connecting biology, chemistry, and clinical trials analysis using next-generation AI systems. The company has developed AI platforms that utilize deep generative models, reinforcement learning, transformers, and other modern machine learning techniques for novel target discovery and the generation of novel molecular structures with desired properties. Insilico Medicine is developing breakthrough solutions to discover and develop innovative drugs for cancer, fibrosis, immunity, central nervous system diseases, infectious diseases, autoimmune diseases, and aging-related diseases. 

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Another country is getting ready to launch a visa for digital nomads

Early reports are saying Japan will soon have a digital nomad visa for high-earning foreigners.



Over the last decade, the explosion of remote work that came as a result of improved technology and the pandemic has allowed an increasing number of people to become digital nomads. 

When looked at more broadly as anyone not required to come into a fixed office but instead moves between different locations such as the home and the coffee shop, the latest estimate shows that there were more than 35 million such workers in the world by the end of 2023 while over half of those come from the United States.

Related: There is a new list of cities that are best for digital nomads

While remote work has also allowed many to move to cheaper places and travel around the world while still bringing in income, working outside of one's home country requires either dual citizenship or work authorization — the global shift toward remote work has pushed many countries to launch specific digital nomad visas to boost their economies and bring in new residents.

Japan is a very popular destination for U.S. tourists. 


This popular vacation destination will soon have a nomad visa

Spain, Portugal, Indonesia, Malaysia, Costa Rica, Brazil, Latvia and Malta are some of the countries currently offering specific visas for foreigners who want to live there while bringing in income from abroad.

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With the exception of a few, Asian countries generally have stricter immigration laws and were much slower to launch these types of visas that some of the countries with weaker economies had as far back as 2015. As first reported by the Japan Times, the country's Immigration Services Agency ended up making the leap toward a visa for those who can earn more than ¥10 million ($68,300 USD) with income from another country.

The Japanese government has not yet worked out the specifics of how long the visa will be valid for or how much it will cost — public comment on the proposal is being accepted throughout next week. 

That said, early reports say the visa will be shorter than the typical digital nomad option that allows foreigners to live in a country for several years. The visa will reportedly be valid for six months or slightly longer but still no more than a year — along with the ability to work, this allows some to stay beyond the 90-day tourist period typically afforded to those from countries with visa-free agreements.

'Not be given a residence card of residence certificate'

While one will be able to reapply for the visa after the time runs out, this can only be done by exiting the country and being away for six months before coming back again — becoming a permanent resident on the pathway to citizenship is an entirely different process with much more strict requirements.

"Those living in Japan with the digital nomad visa will not be given a residence card or a residence certificate, which provide access to certain government benefits," reports the news outlet. "The visa cannot be renewed and must be reapplied for, with this only possible six months after leaving the countr

The visa will reportedly start in March and also allow holders to bring their spouses and families with them. To start using the visa, holders will also need to purchase private health insurance from their home country while taxes on any money one earns will also need to be paid through one's home country.

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