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First Reliance Bancshares Reports Third Quarter 2022 Results

First Reliance Bancshares Reports Third Quarter 2022 Results
PR Newswire
FLORENCE, S.C., Nov. 1, 2022

FLORENCE, S.C., Nov. 1, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — First Reliance Bancshares, Inc. (OTC:FSRL), the holding company for First Reliance Bank (collectively…

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First Reliance Bancshares Reports Third Quarter 2022 Results

PR Newswire

FLORENCE, S.C., Nov. 1, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- First Reliance Bancshares, Inc. (OTC:FSRL), the holding company for First Reliance Bank (collectively, "First Reliance" or the "Company"), today announced its financial results for the third quarter of 2022.

Third Quarter 2022 Highlights

  • Net income for the third quarter of 2022 increased 95.8% to $2.5 million, or $0.31 per diluted share, compared to $1.3 million, or $0.16 per diluted share, for the third quarter of 2021.
  • Return on average assets increased to 1.06% for September 30, 2022 compared to 0.45% at June 30, 2022 and 0.60% for the third quarter of 2021. Return on average equity increased to 15.60% for September 30, 2022 compared to 6.60% at June 30, 2022 and 7.29% for the third quarter of 2021.
  • Net interest income for the quarter was $8.2 million, which represents an increase of $0.9 million, or 12.4%, on a linked quarter basis and an increase of $2.0 million, or 31.6% compared to the same period in 2021.
  • Net interest margin expanded during the quarter to 3.71% at September 30, 2022 compared to 3.39% for the second quarter of 2022.
  • In the third quarter, $4.9 million of the mortgage servicing right assets were sold for a net gain of $632 thousand.
  • Total loans increased $8.7 million, or 5.4% annualized, to $646.6 million at September 30, 2022 from $638.0 million at June 30, 2022.
  • Total deposits increased $9.4 million, or 4.5% annualized, to $840.4 million at September 30, 2022 from $831.0 million at June 30, 2022. This growth was primarily driven by noninterest-bearing deposits and transaction accounts.
  • The Company had net charge-offs of $34 thousand, or annualized 0.02% of average loans during the quarter compared to net recoveries of $178 thousand, or annualized 0.12% of average loans, for the quarter ended June 30, 2022. Asset quality remains unchanged with nonperforming assets as a percentage of total assets of 0.06% at September 30, 2022 and June 30, 2022.
  • Cost of funds for the third quarter of 2022 increased to 0.33% from 0.21% on a linked quarter basis and from 0.24% for the same period in 2021.

Rick Saunders, Chief Executive Officer, remarked: "We had another quarter of increased core bank profitability, highlighted by a 32 basis point expansion in Net Interest Margin and improving expense management.  In the face of rising interest rates, we have benefited from the strong deposit franchise that our team has cultivated.  As we continue to execute our growth strategies, we are committed to ensuring that we remain disciplined in our approach to credit underwriting and pricing." 

 

Financial Summary




Three Months Ended




Nine Months Ended


Sep 30

Jun 30

Mar 31

Dec 31

Sept 30


Sep 30

Sep 30

($ in thousands, except per share data)

2022

2022

2022

2021

2021


2022

2021

Earnings:









Net income available to common shareholders

$     2,522

$     1,064

$          852

$          932

$     1,288


$      4,438

$      4,344

Earnings per common share, diluted

0.31

0.13

0.11

0.12

0.16


0.55

0.53

Total revenue(1)

11,103

9,404

9,097

9,253

9,570


29,604

29,655

Net interest margin

3.71 %

3.39 %

3.12 %

3.10 %

3.12 %


3.41 %

3.30 %

Return on average assets(2)

1.06 %

0.45 %

0.37 %

0.41 %

0.60 %


0.63 %

0.72 %

Return on average equity(2)

15.60 %

6.60 %

4.85 %

5.28 %

7.29 %


8.91 %

8.34 %

Efficiency ratio(3)

69.40 %

84.49 %

87.50 %

88.45 %

83.83 %


79.76 %

80.98 %

 


As of


Sep 30

Jun 30

Mar 31

Dec 31

Sept 30

(dollars in thousands)

2022

2022

2022

2021

2021

Balance Sheet:






Total assets

$       946,437

$       946,853

$       953,784

$       910,797

$       911,057

Total loans receivable

646,634

637,953

592,089

586,446

564,738

Total deposits

840,392

830,992

837,663

780,833

787,501

Total transaction deposits(4) to total deposits

51.42 %

51.14 %

52.71 %

50.19 %

48.25 %

Loans to deposits

76.94 %

76.77 %

70.68 %

75.11 %

71.71 %

Bank Capital Ratios:






Total risk-based capital ratio

13.47 %

12.97 %

13.67 %

14.07 %

15.80 %

Tier 1 risk-based capital ratio

12.45 %

11.98 %

12.65 %

13.03 %

14.64 %

Tier 1 leverage ratio

9.84 %

9.66 %

9.67 %

9.66 %

10.24 %

Common equity tier 1 capital ratio

12.45 %

11.98 %

12.65 %

13.03 %

14.64 %

Asset Quality Ratios:






Nonperforming assets as a percentage of
   total assets

0.06 %

0.06 %

0.11 %

0.10 %

0.15 %

Allowance for loan losses as a percentage of
   total loans receivable

1.18 %

1.17 %

1.22 %

1.20 %

1.23 %







Footnotes to table located at the end of this release.

 

CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED INCOME STATEMENTS – Unaudited




Three Months Ended




Nine Months Ended


Sep 30

Jun 30

Mar 31

Dec 31

Sept 30


Sep 30

($ in thousands, except per share data)

2022

2022

2022

2021

2021


2022

2021

Interest income









Loans

$        7,555

$        6,781

$        6,380

$        6,663

$        6,382


$        20,716

$        18,623

Investment securities

1,097

840

571

359

294


2,508

844

Other interest income

321

176

73

79

58


570

155

Total interest income

8,973

7,797

7,024

7,101

6,734


23,794

19,622

Interest expense









Deposits

446

212

197

224

257


855

798

Other interest expense

283

252

252

256

213


787

740

Total interest expense

729

464

449

480

470


1,642

1,538

Net interest income

8,244

7,333

6,575

6,621

6,264


22,152

18,084

Provision for loan losses

170

110

85

95

100


365

208

Net interest income after provision for loan
   losses

8,074

7,223

6,490

6,526

6,164


21,787

17,876

Noninterest income









Mortgage banking income

1,721

897

1,420

1,407

2,151


4,038

8,124

Service fees on deposit accounts

343

357

362

356

315


1,062

865

Debit card and other service charges,
   commissions, and fees

536

559

498

543

532


1,593

1,495

Income from bank owned life insurance

91

89

88

93

94


268

281

Gain on sale of securities, net

-

-

-

-

42


-

81

Gain on sale of loans

-

-

-

-

-


-

326

(Loss) Gain on disposal of fixed assets

(10)

-

10

69

-


(1)

-

Other income

178

168

144

164

172


492

399

Total noninterest income

2,859

2,070

2,522

2,632

3,306


7,452

11,571

Noninterest expense









Compensation and benefits

4,505

5,059

5,079

4,965

5,268


14,642

15,777

Occupancy and equipment

923

890

893

862

784


2,707

2,359

Data processing, technology, and communications

846

789

837

920

852


2,473

2,634

Professional fees

185

180

180

202

234


544

715

Marketing

206

184

74

150

113


464

270

Other

1,040

843

897

1,085

772


2,781

2,259

Total noninterest expense

7,705

7,945

7,960

8,184

8,023


23,611

24,014

Income before provision for income taxes

3,228

1,348

1,052

974

1,447


5,628

5,433

Income tax expense

706

284

200

42

159


1,190

1,089

Net income available to common shareholders

$        2,522

$        1,064

$             852

$             932

$        1,288


$           4,438

$           4,344










Weighted average common shares - basic

7,777

7,782

7,784

7,785

7,750


7,781

7,737

Weighted average common shares - diluted

8,073

8,094

8,100

8,096

8,084


8,088

8,160

Basic income per common share

$           0.32

$           0.14

$           0.11

$           0.12

$           0.17


$              0.57

$              0.56

Diluted income per common share

$           0.31

$           0.13

$           0.11

$           0.12

$           0.16


$              0.55

$              0.53










Net income for the three months ended September 30, 2022 was $2.5 million, or $0.31 per diluted common share, compared to $1.3 million, or $0.16 per diluted common share, for the three months ended September 30, 2021.  Net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2022 totaled $4.4 million, or $0.55 per diluted common share, compared to $4.3 million, or $0.53 per diluted common share for the nine months ended September 30, 2021.

Noninterest income for the three months ended September 30, 2022 was $2.9 million, a decrease of $0.4 million from $3.3 million for the same period in 2021.  Noninterest income is largely driven by the Company's mortgage banking division, which produced net revenue of $1.7 million during the three months ended September 30, 2022.  During the third quarter, the Company sold mortgage servicing rights related to approximately $503.8 million of underlying mortgages for a $0.6 million net gain on sale mortgage servicing rights.  Additionally, mortgage sales volume decreased $67.4 million to $56.6 million compared to third quarter 2021 due to the effect of rising mortgage rates.  

Noninterest expense for the three months ended September 30, 2022 was $7.7 million, a decrease of $0.3 million from $8.0 million for the same period in 2021.  This decrease was primarily driven by a decrease in core bank and mortgage compensation and benefits somewhat offset by an increase in other noninterest expense compared to third quarter 2021.    

NET INTEREST INCOME AND MARGIN – Unaudited



For the Three Months Ended


September 30, 2022


September 30, 2021


Average

Income/

Yield/


Average

Income/

Yield/

(dollars in thousands)

Balance

Expense

Rate


Balance

Expense

Rate

Assets








Interest-earning assets








Federal funds sold and interest-bearing deposits

$      66,503

$              317

1.89 %


$    159,307

$              51

0.13 %

Investment securities

163,843

1,097

2.66 %


55,049

294

2.12 %

Nonmarketable equity securities

522

4

3.61 %


837

7

3.38 %

Loans held for sale

10,073

152

5.98 %


32,181

244

3.01 %

Loans

639,929

7,403

4.59 %


548,028

6,138

4.44 %

Total interest-earning assets

880,870

8,973

4.04 %


795,402

6,734

3.36 %

Allowance for loan losses

(7,570)




(6,764)



Noninterest-earning assets

81,448




75,650



Total assets

$   954,748




$    864,288











Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity








Interest-bearing liabilities








NOW accounts

$   152,444

$                 29

0.08 %


$    133,577

$              16

0.05 %

Savings & money market

304,629

321

0.42 %


246,212

101

0.16 %

Time deposits

108,258

95

0.35 %


132,972

140

0.42 %

Total interest-bearing deposits

565,331

445

0.31 %


512,761

257

0.20 %

FHLB advances and other borrowings

11,264

5

0.16 %


19,839

48

0.96 %

Subordinated debentures

25,679

279

4.31 %


18,144

165

3.61 %

Total interest-bearing liabilities

602,274

729

0.48 %


550,744

470

0.34 %

Noninterest bearing deposits

274,832




231,993



Other liabilities

12,967




10,903



Shareholders' equity

64,675




70,648



Total liabilities and shareholders' equity

$   954,748




$    864,288











Net interest income (tax equivalent) / interest
  rate spread


$         8,244

3.56 %



$       6,264

3.02 %

Net Interest Margin



3.71 %




3.12 %









 


For the  Nine Months Ended


September 30, 2022


September 30, 2021


Average

Income/

Yield/


Average

Income/

Yield/

(dollars in thousands)

Balance

Expense

Rate


Balance

Expense

Rate

Assets








Interest-earning assets








Federal funds sold and interest-bearing deposits

$      97,344

$              552

0.76 %


$    128,926

$           109

0.11 %

Investment securities

141,479

2,508

2.37 %


50,139

844

2.25 %

Nonmarketable equity securities

552

17

4.16 %


909

46

6.75 %

Loans held for sale

17,402

564

4.33 %


34,653

740

2.85 %

Loans

611,679

20,153

4.40 %


517,512

17,883

4.62 %

Total interest-earning assets

868,456

23,794

3.66 %


732,139

19,622

3.58 %

Allowance for loan losses

(7,331)




(6,478)



Noninterest-earning assets

80,919




74,404



Total assets

$   942,044




$    800,065











Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity








Interest-bearing liabilities








NOW accounts

$   161,932

$                 69

0.06 %


$    129,834

$              45

0.05 %

Savings & money market

288,708

507

0.23 %


210,738

263

0.17 %

Time deposits

113,460

280

0.33 %


136,221

490

0.48 %

Total interest-bearing deposits

564,100

856

0.20 %


476,793

798

0.22 %

FHLB advances and other borrowings

13,044

34

0.35 %


17,665

141

1.06 %

Subordinated debentures

25,671

752

3.92 %


19,901

599

4.03 %

Total interest-bearing liabilities

602,815

1,642

0.36 %


514,359

1,538

0.40 %

Noninterest bearing deposits

260,426




205,531



Other liabilities

12,376




10,695



Shareholders' equity

66,427




69,480



Total liabilities and shareholders' equity

$   942,044




$    800,065











Net interest income (tax equivalent) / interest
  rate spread


$      22,152

3.30 %



$    18,084

3.18 %

Net Interest Margin



3.41 %




3.30 %









Net interest income for the three months ended September 30, 2022 was $8.2 million compared to $6.3 million for the three months ended September 30, 2021.  This increase was primarily driven by an increase in interest-earning assets, as well as an increase in interest rates.  Yield on interest-earning assets increased to 4.04% for the three months ended September 30, 2022 from 3.36% for the same period in 2021.   The company expects deposit betas to increase beginning in the fourth quarter of 2022 from historically low levels thus far in the rate tightening cycle which should be at least partially offset by continued increases in interest earning asset yields.

Net interest income was $22.2 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2022, an increase of $4.1 million over the same period in 2021.  Increases in average loans and investments contributed to a majority of the increase in interest income as well as a reduction in yield on interest bearing liabilities.

CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS – Unaudited



As of


Sept 30

June 30

Mar 31

Dec 31

Sept 30

(dollars in thousands)

2022

2022

2022

2021

2021

Assets






Cash and cash equivalents:






Cash and due from banks

$             4,147

$             7,702

$                 4,672

$                 5,299

$                 4,930

Interest-bearing deposits with banks

60,537

45,683

116,192

144,825

184,739

Total cash and cash equivalents

64,684

53,385

120,864

150,124

189,669

Time deposits in other banks


257

257

257

257

Investment securities:






Investment securities available for sale

160,504

164,440

144,422

81,917

58,470

Other investments

917

657

521

837

837

Total investment securities

161,421

165,097

144,943

82,754

59,307

Mortgage loans held for sale

4,599

19,648

23,528

23,844

33,667

Loans receivable:






Loans

646,634

637,953

592,089

586,446

564,738

Less allowance for loan losses

(7,630)

(7,494)

(7,206)

(7,040)

(6,934)

Loans receivable, net

639,004

630,459

584,883

579,406

557,804

Property and equipment, net

22,868

23,100

23,222

22,805

22,364

Mortgage servicing rights

10,182

14,893

14,536

14,057

13,785

Bank owned life insurance

18,744

18,653

18,564

18,476

18,383

Deferred income taxes

8,629

7,376

5,862

4,128

2,798

Other assets

16,306

13,985

17,125

14,946

13,023

Total assets

946,437

946,853

953,784

910,797

911,057

Liabilities






Deposits

$       840,392

$       830,992

$           837,663

$           780,833

$           787,501

Federal Home Loan Bank advances

-

-

-

10,000

10,000

Federal funds and repurchase agreements

3,726

13,805

11,886

11,372

6,353

Subordinated debentures

15,373

15,365

15,357

15,349

15,498

Junior subordinated debentures

10,310

10,310

10,310

10,310

10,310

Other liabilities

14,472

12,412

11,937

12,131

10,983

Total liabilities

884,273

882,884

887,153

839,995

840,645

Shareholders' equity






Preferred stock - Series D non-cumulative, no par
  value

1

1

1

1

1

Common Stock - $.01 par value; 20,000,000 shares
  authorized

88

88

88

88

88

Treasury stock, at cost

(4,364)

(4,333)

(4,419)

(4,323)

(4,281)

Nonvested restricted stock

(2,291)

(2,500)

(2,572)

(2,668)

(2,737)

Additional paid-in capital

54,013

54,088

53,980

53,856

53,765

Retained earnings

28,423

25,901

24,837

23,985

23,053

Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)

(13,706)

(9,276)

(5,284)

(137)

523

Total shareholders' equity

62,164

63,969

66,631

70,802

70,412

Total liabilities and shareholders' equity

$       946,437

$       946,853

$           953,784

$           910,797

$           911,057







 

COMMON STOCK SUMMARY - Unaudited





As of




30-Sep

June 30

Mar 31

Dec 31

Sept 30

(shares in thousands)

2022

2022

2022

2021

2021

Voting common shares outstanding

8,793

8,801

8,782

8,793

8,784

Treasury shares outstanding

(575)

(571)

(545)

(535)

(530)

  Total common shares outstanding

8,218

8,230

8,237

8,258

8,254







Tangible book value per common share(5)

$                     7.46

$                     7.66

$                     7.98

$                     8.46

$                     8.41







Stock price:






  High

$                  10.20

$                  10.20

$                  10.20

$                  10.74

$                  10.50

  Low

$                     9.00

$                     9.25

$                     9.75

$                     9.95

$                     9.80

  Period end

$                     9.14

$                     9.25

$                     9.85

$                  10.20

$                  10.30

 

ASSET QUALITY MEASURES – Unaudited



As of


Sept 30

June 30

Mar 31

Dec 31

Sept 30

(dollars in thousands)

2022

2022

2022

2021

2021

Nonperforming Assets






Commercial






Owner occupied RE

$                     135

$                     140

$                     144

$                     152

$                       526

Non-owner occupied RE

-

-

295

-

-

Construction

-

-

-

-

-

Commercial business

146

81

-

-

-

Consumer






Real estate

2

3

343

341

346

Home equity

-

-

-

-

-

Construction

-

-

-

-

-

Other

130

160

104

84

121

Nonaccruing troubled debt restructurings

160

173

190

205

220

Total nonaccrual loans

$                     573

$                     557

$                1,076

$                     782

$                  1,213

Other real estate owned

-

-

-

135

150

Total nonperforming assets

$                     573

$                     557

$                1,076

$                     917

$                  1,363

Nonperforming assets as a percentage of:






Total assets

0.06 %

0.06 %

0.11 %

0.10 %

0.15 %

Total loans receivable

0.09 %

0.09 %

0.18 %

0.16 %

0.24 %

Accruing troubled debt restructurings

$                1,312

$                1,349

$                1,393

$                1,405

$                  1,444








Three Months Ended


Sept 30

June 30

Mar 31

Dec 31

Sept 30

(dollars in thousands)

2022

2022

2022

2021

2021

Allowance for Loan Losses






Balance, beginning of period

$                7,494

$                7,206

$                7,040

$                6,934

$                  6,323

Loans charged-off

76

11

19

5

72

Recoveries of loans previously charged-off

42

189

100

16

583

Net charge-offs (recoveries)

34

(178)

(81)

(11)

(511)

Provision for loan losses

170

110

85

95

100

Balance, end of period

$                7,630

$                7,494

$                7,206

$                7,040

$                  6,934

Allowance for loan losses to gross loans receivable

1.18 %

1.17 %

1.22 %

1.20 %

1.23 %

Allowance for loan losses to nonaccrual loans

1331.59 %

1345.42 %

669.70 %

900.26 %

571.64 %


Footnotes to table located at the end of this release.

Our asset quality remained strong through September 30, 2022, with nonperforming assets remaining at $0.6 million, which represents 0.06% of total assets.  The allowance for loan losses as a percentage of total loans receivable increased slightly to 1.18% at September 30, 2022, compared to 1.17% at June 30, 2022.  The Company had net charge-offs of $34 thousand for the three months ended September 30, 2022 compared to net recoveries of $0.5 million for the same period in 2021.

LOAN COMPOSITION – Unaudited



As of


Sept 30

June 30

Mar 31

Dec 31

Sept 30

(dollars in thousands)

2022

2022

2022

2021

2021

Commercial real estate

$             378,589

$             368,316

$             334,508

$             333,060

$             318,849

Consumer real estate

147,110

142,711

123,908

120,079

107,651

Commercial and industrial

67,200

67,239

66,285

60,687

61,778

Consumer and other

53,735

59,687

67,388

72,620

76,460

Total loans, net of deferred fees

646,634

637,953

592,089

586,446

564,738

Less allowance for loan losses

7,630

7,494

7,206

7,040

6,934

Total loans, net

$             639,004

$             630,459

$             584,883

$             579,406

$             557,804

 

DEPOSIT COMPOSITION – Unaudited



As of


Sept 30

June 30

Mar 31

Dec 31

Sept 30

(dollars in thousands)

2022

2022

2022

2021

2021

Noninterest-bearing

$        277,587

$        265,049

$        273,118

$        238,019

$        246,534

Interest-bearing:






DDA and NOW accounts

154,550

159,939

168,401

153,889

133,474

Money market accounts

232,711

230,840

217,812

204,432

216,243

Savings

71,929

66,727

61,246

58,566

59,941

Time, less than $250,000

76,530

78,735

84,874

99,059

103,126

Time, $250,000 and over

27,085

29,702

32,212

26,868

28,183

Total deposits

$        840,392

$        830,992

$        837,663

$        780,833

$        787,501







Footnotes to tables:



(1)

Total revenue is the sum of net interest income and noninterest income.

(2)

Annualized for the respective period.

(3)

Noninterest expense divided by the sum of net interest income and noninterest income.

(4)

Includes noninterest-bearing and interest-bearing DDA and NOW accounts.

(5)

The tangible book value per share is calculated as total shareholders' equity less intangible assets, divided by period-end outstanding common shares. 

ABOUT FIRST RELIANCE

Founded in 1999, First Reliance Bancshares, Inc. (OTC: FSRL.OB), is based in Florence, South Carolina and has assets of approximately $946 million. The company employs more than 175 professionals and has locations throughout South Carolina and central North Carolina. First Reliance has redefined community banking with a commitment to making customers' lives better, its founding principle. Customers of the company have given it a 93% customer satisfaction rating well above the bank industry average of 81%. First Reliance is also one of two companies throughout South Carolina to receive the Best Places to Work in South Carolina award all 17 years since the program began. We believe that this recognition confirms that our associates are engaged and committed to our brand and the communities we serve. In addition to offering a full range of personalized community banking products and services for individuals, small businesses and corporations, First Reliance offers two unique community-customers programs, which include: Hometown Heroes, a package of benefits for those serving our communities and Check N Save, an outreach program for the unbanked or under-banked. The company also offers a full suite of digital banking services, Treasury Services, a Customer Service Guaranty, a Mortgage Service Guaranty, and First Reliance Wealth Strategies.

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS

Certain statements in this news release contain "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, such as statements relating to future plans and expectations, and are thus prospective.  Such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to our plans, objectives, expectations and intentions and other statements that are not historical facts, and other statements identified by words such as "believes," "expects," "anticipates," "estimates," "intends," "plans," "targets," and "projects," as well as similar expressions.  Such statements are subject to risks, uncertainties, and other factors which could cause actual results to differ materially from future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.  Although we believe that the assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements are reasonable, any of the assumptions could prove to be inaccurate.  Therefore, we can give no assurance that the results contemplated in the forward-looking statements will be realized.  The inclusion of this forward-looking information should not be construed as a representation by the Company or any person that the future events, plans, or expectations contemplated by the Company will be achieved.

The following factors, among others, could cause actual results to differ materially from the anticipated results or other expectations expressed in the forward-looking statements:  (1) competitive pressures among depository and other financial institutions may increase significantly and have an effect on pricing, spending, third-party relationships and revenues; (2) the strength of the United States economy in general and the strength of the local economies in which we conduct operations may be different than expected resulting in, among other things, a deterioration in the credit quality or a reduced demand for credit, including the resultant effect on the Company's loan portfolio and allowance for loan losses; (3) the rate of delinquencies and amounts of charge-offs, the level of allowance for loan loss, the rates of loan growth, or adverse changes in asset quality in our loan portfolio, which may result in increased credit risk-related losses and expenses; (4) the risk that the preliminary financial information reported herein and our current preliminary analysis will be different when our review is finalized; (5) changes in the U.S. legal and regulatory framework including, but not limited to, the Dodd-Frank Act and regulations adopted thereunder; (6) adverse conditions in the stock market, the public debt market and other capital markets (including changes in interest rate conditions) could have a negative impact on the Company, including the value of its MSR asset; (7) the business related to acquisitions may not be integrated successfully or such integration may take longer to accomplish than expected; (8) the expected cost savings and any revenue synergies from acquisitions may not be fully realized within expected timeframes; and (9) disruption from acquisitions may make it more difficult to maintain relationships with clients, associates or suppliers.  Moreover, a trade war or other governmental action related to tariffs or international trade agreements or policies, as well as Covid-19 or other potential epidemics or pandemics, have the potential to negatively impact ours and/or our customers' costs, demand for our customers' products, and/or the U.S. economy or certain sectors thereof and, thus, adversely affect our business, financial condition, and results of operations.  All subsequent written and oral forward-looking statements concerning the Company or any person acting on its behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements above.  We do not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statement to reflect circumstances or events that occur after the date the forward-looking statements are made.

Contact:
Robert Haile
SEVP & Chief Financial Officer
(843) 656-5000
rhaile@firstreliance.com

View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/first-reliance-bancshares-reports-third-quarter-2022-results-301665287.html

SOURCE First Reliance Bancshares

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Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
A brief excerpt: I’ve argued repeatedly that we would NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened followi…

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Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

A brief excerpt:
I’ve argued repeatedly that we would NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble). The two key reasons are mortgage lending has been solid, and most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes..
...
And on mortgage rates, here is some data from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013 through Q3 2023 (Q4 2023 data will be released in a two weeks).

This shows the surge in the percent of loans under 3%, and also under 4%, starting in early 2020 as mortgage rates declined sharply during the pandemic. Currently 22.6% of loans are under 3%, 59.4% are under 4%, and 78.7% are under 5%.

With substantial equity, and low mortgage rates (mostly at a fixed rates), few homeowners will have financial difficulties.
There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

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‘Bougie Broke’ – The Financial Reality Behind The Facade

‘Bougie Broke’ – The Financial Reality Behind The Facade

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Social media users claiming…

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'Bougie Broke' - The Financial Reality Behind The Facade

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Social media users claiming to be Bougie Broke share pictures of their fancy cars, high-fashion clothing, and selfies in exotic locations and expensive restaurants. Yet they complain about living paycheck to paycheck and lacking the means to support their lifestyle.

Bougie broke is like “keeping up with the Joneses,” spending beyond one’s means to impress others.

Bougie Broke gives us a glimpse into the financial condition of a growing number of consumers. Since personal consumption represents about two-thirds of economic activity, it’s worth diving into the Bougie Broke fad to appreciate if a large subset of the population can continue to consume at current rates.

The Wealth Divide Disclaimer

Forecasting personal consumption is always tricky, but it has become even more challenging in the post-pandemic era. To appreciate why we share a joke told by Mike Green.

Bill Gates and I walk into the bar…

Bartender: “Wow… a couple of billionaires on average!”

Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, and other billionaires make us all much richer, on average. Unfortunately, we can’t use the average to pay our bills.

According to Wikipedia, Bill Gates is one of 756 billionaires living in the United States. Many of these billionaires became much wealthier due to the pandemic as their investment fortunes proliferated.

To appreciate the wealth divide, consider the graph below courtesy of Statista. 1% of the U.S. population holds 30% of the wealth. The wealthiest 10% of households have two-thirds of the wealth. The bottom half of the population accounts for less than 3% of the wealth.

The uber-wealthy grossly distorts consumption and savings data. And, with the sharp increase in their wealth over the past few years, the consumption and savings data are more distorted.

Furthermore, and critical to appreciate, the spending by the wealthy doesn’t fluctuate with the economy. Therefore, the spending of the lower wealth classes drives marginal changes in consumption. As such, the condition of the not-so-wealthy is most important for forecasting changes in consumption.

Revenge Spending

Deciphering personal data has also become more difficult because our spending habits have changed due to the pandemic.

A great example is revenge spending. Per the New York Times:

Ola Majekodunmi, the founder of All Things Money, a finance site for young adults, explained revenge spending as expenditures meant to make up for “lost time” after an event like the pandemic.

So, between the growing wealth divide and irregular spending habits, let’s quantify personal savings, debt usage, and real wages to appreciate better if Bougie Broke is a mass movement or a silly meme.

The Means To Consume 

Savings, debt, and wages are the three primary sources that give consumers the ability to consume.

Savings

The graph below shows the rollercoaster on which personal savings have been since the pandemic. The savings rate is hovering at the lowest rate since those seen before the 2008 recession. The total amount of personal savings is back to 2017 levels. But, on an inflation-adjusted basis, it’s at 10-year lows. On average, most consumers are drawing down their savings or less. Given that wages are increasing and unemployment is historically low, they must be consuming more.

Now, strip out the savings of the uber-wealthy, and it’s probable that the amount of personal savings for much of the population is negligible. A survey by Payroll.org estimates that 78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck.

More on Insufficient Savings

The Fed’s latest, albeit old, Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households from June 2023 claims that over a third of households do not have enough savings to cover an unexpected $400 expense. We venture to guess that number has grown since then. To wit, the number of households with essentially no savings rose 5% from their prior report a year earlier.  

Relatively small, unexpected expenses, such as a car repair or a modest medical bill, can be a hardship for many families. When faced with a hypothetical expense of $400, 63 percent of all adults in 2022 said they would have covered it exclusively using cash, savings, or a credit card paid off at the next statement (referred to, altogether, as “cash or its equivalent”). The remainder said they would have paid by borrowing or selling something or said they would not have been able to cover the expense.

Debt

After periods where consumers drained their existing savings and/or devoted less of their paychecks to savings, they either slowed their consumption patterns or borrowed to keep them up. Currently, it seems like many are choosing the latter option. Consumer borrowing is accelerating at a quicker pace than it was before the pandemic. 

The first graph below shows outstanding credit card debt fell during the pandemic as the economy cratered. However, after multiple stimulus checks and broad-based economic recovery, consumer confidence rose, and with it, credit card balances surged.

The current trend is steeper than the pre-pandemic trend. Some may be a catch-up, but the current rate is unsustainable. Consequently, borrowing will likely slow down to its pre-pandemic trend or even below it as consumers deal with higher credit card balances and 20+% interest rates on the debt.

The second graph shows that since 2022, credit card balances have grown faster than our incomes. Like the first graph, the credit usage versus income trend is unsustainable, especially with current interest rates.

With many consumers maxing out their credit cards, is it any wonder buy-now-pay-later loans (BNPL) are increasing rapidly?

Insider Intelligence believes that 79 million Americans, or a quarter of those over 18 years old, use BNPL. Lending Tree claims that “nearly 1 in 3 consumers (31%) say they’re at least considering using a buy now, pay later (BNPL) loan this month.”More tellingaccording to their survey, only 52% of those asked are confident they can pay off their BNPL loan without missing a payment!

Wage Growth

Wages have been growing above trend since the pandemic. Since 2022, the average annual growth in compensation has been 6.28%. Higher incomes support more consumption, but higher prices reduce the amount of goods or services one can buy. Over the same period, real compensation has grown by less than half a percent annually. The average real compensation growth was 2.30% during the three years before the pandemic.

In other words, compensation is just keeping up with inflation instead of outpacing it and providing consumers with the ability to consume, save, or pay down debt.

It’s All About Employment

The unemployment rate is 3.9%, up slightly from recent lows but still among the lowest rates in the last seventy-five years.

The uptick in credit card usage, decline in savings, and the savings rate argue that consumers are slowly running out of room to keep consuming at their current pace.

However, the most significant means by which we consume is income. If the unemployment rate stays low, consumption may moderate. But, if the recent uptick in unemployment continues, a recession is extremely likely, as we have seen every time it turned higher.

It’s not just those losing jobs that consume less. Of greater impact is a loss of confidence by those employed when they see friends or neighbors being laid off.   

Accordingly, the labor market is probably the most important leading indicator of consumption and of the ability of the Bougie Broke to continue to be Bougie instead of flat-out broke!

Summary

There are always consumers living above their means. This is often harmless until their means decline or disappear. The Bougie Broke meme and the ability social media gives consumers to flaunt their “wealth” is a new medium for an age-old message.

Diving into the data, it argues that consumption will likely slow in the coming months. Such would allow some consumers to save and whittle down their debt. That situation would be healthy and unlikely to cause a recession.

The potential for the unemployment rate to continue higher is of much greater concern. The combination of a higher unemployment rate and strapped consumers could accentuate a recession.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/13/2024 - 09:25

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The most potent labor market indicator of all is still strongly positive

  – by New Deal democratOn Monday I examined some series from last Friday’s Household survey in the jobs report, highlighting that they more frequently…

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 - by New Deal democrat


On Monday I examined some series from last Friday’s Household survey in the jobs report, highlighting that they more frequently than not indicated a recession was near or underway. But I concluded by noting that this survey has historically been noisy, and I thought it would be resolved away this time. Specifically, there was strong contrary data from the Establishment survey, backed up by yesterday’s inflation report, to the contrary. Today I’ll examine that, looking at two other series.


Historically, as economic expansions progress and the unemployment rate goes down, average hourly wages for nonsupervisory workers improve at an increasing rate (blue in the graph below). But eventually, inflation (red) picks up and overtakes that wage growth, and a recession occurs shortly thereafter. Not always, as we’ll see in the graph below, but usually:



As you can see, there have been a number of exceptions to the rule, chiefly where inflation outstripped wage growth, but no recession happened anyway. Typically this has occurred because of the entry of so many more people (like women in the 1980s and early 1990s) into the labor force.

And we certainly see that inflation outstripped wages in 2022, not coincidentally when there were several negative quarters of real GDP. But with the decline in gas prices, in 2023 inflation subsided much more sharply than wage growth, and the economy improved more substantially. That has remained the case in the first two months of 2024.

But an even more potent indicator is one I have come to rely on even more: real aggregate payrolls for nonsupervisory workers. Here’s its historical record up until the pandemic:



There’s not a single false positive, nor a single false negative. If YoY aggregate payroll growth is stronger than YoY inflation, you’re in an expansion. If it’s weaker, you’re in a recession. Period.

And here is its record since the pandemic:



Real aggregate nonsurpervisory payrolls are positive, and they got more positive in 2023 compared with 2022. Currently they are 2.6% higher YoY than inflation.

In addition to the YoY comparison, real aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls have always declined, at least slightly, from their expansion peaks before every single recession in the past 50 years except for when the pandemic suddenly shut down the economy:



Not every slight decline means a recession is coming. But if real aggregate payrolls are at a new high, you’re not in a recession, and one isn’t likely to occur in the next 6 months, either.

And in case it isn’t clear from that long term graph, here’s the short term graph of the same thing:



Real aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls made a new all-time high in February. Despite the negative metrics in the Household survey, this is *very* potent evidence that not only are we not in a recession, but one isn’t likely in the immediate future either.


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