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February 2024 Monthly

The coming weeks will
likely continue the correction of the trends that began last month. The markets
recognize that tightening cycle is over. However,…



The coming weeks will likely continue the correction of the trends that began last month. The markets recognize that tightening cycle is over. However, they swung hard, pricing in aggressive easing by most of the G10 central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Official comments and some high-frequency economic data have encouraged participants to rein in their expectations, reducing the odds of a rate cuts in Q1 and paring back the extent of the cuts this year. 

The pendulum of market expectations reached an extreme. In the first part of January, pricing of the Fed funds futures strip implied a rate cut at each of the remaining seven FOMC meetings. While this is possible, it is not the most likely scenario, especially given what we know about the national labor market and in the context of still elevated price pressures and above trend growth in Q4 23.

Similarly, at the extreme in late December, the swaps market had discounted 190 bp of ECB cuts this year. It had returned to around 140 bp (five quarter-point cuts and a 60% chance of a sixth) in late January, which still seems aggressive compared with ECB signals. Comments from ECB President Lagarde and the record from the December meeting suggest a timeframe of the first rate cute toward the middle of the year. The market thinks April is a reasonable timeframe and will coincide with a sharp drop in measured inflation. With the eurozone continuing to struggle to sustain economic traction, the disruption of Red Sea transit, which means greater costs and slower deliveries, is the latest exogenous shock. 

The earthquake in Japan at the start of the year and the diminishing price pressures, framed by official comments, have strengthened the emerging consensus for an April policy adjustment. This would allow for the completion of the spring wage negotiations and corresponds to the end of the government's gas and electric subsidies, which could boost measured inflation by 0.4%-0.5%.

China's may have met last year's 5% growth target, according to its own assessment but it is not satisfactory for Beijing. More stimulus is expected in the form of government loans and lending by the PBOC. Given weak prices pressures (deflation), there is still scope for ore targeted measures after reserve requirements were cut in late January by 50 basis points. New formal and informal efforts to stem the hemorrhaging of Chinese stocks on the mainland, and especially in Hong Kong may be tested in the coming weeks. The fact that officials needed to resort to such measures feeds the sense that China is stumbling. Its enormous size means that the scale of whatever it does is globally significant. Coupled powerful economic nationalism and the lack of transparency contributes to economic anxiety in developed and developing countries.

However, the economic rivalry, while intense, is manageable. We often forget that the heated rivalry between the US, Europe, and Japan previously, and the tactics included tariffs and restrictions on the exports of some technology. Europe and Japan, no more than China, have chafed under US leadership, but there the competition was limited to the economy and trade. Not so with China, and Beijing's aggressive tactics, not only toward Taiwan, but others Pacific nations, including the Philippines, and Nepal and Bhutan, while aligning with Russia and Iran, remains particularly troubling.

Yet broadly, one cannot tell by looking at the capital or commodity markets the geopolitical tensions are the highest in at least a generation. Shipping costs between Europe and Asia reflect the disruption, but crude oil prices are more than 10% below Q4 23's peak, and gold was a couple percentage points lower through the first four weeks of January. The G10 currencies usually associated with risk-off, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc have not been beneficiaries of the geopolitical tensions, falling about 4.8% and 2.6%, respectively, against the dollar.

The reversal of the November and December trends in the dollar and interest rates in January was seen in emerging markets too. We know that Chinese equities fell sharply in January, but the MSCI emerging market equity index, excluding China was off about 2.8% in the first four weeks of the year. It had risen by a little more than 17% in the last two months of 2023. The premium of emerging market bonds (JP Morgan Index) over Treasuries tightened by about 50 bp last November-December. It widened a little in January but remains near the lower end of where it has trading over the past two years. Emerging market currencies generally weakened, as well. The JP Morgan and the MSCI emerging market currencies indexes fell by about 1.7% and 1.1%, respectively in the first four weeks of January. 

Bannockburn's World Currency Index, a GDP-weighted basket of the currencies of the 12 largest economies, fell by a little more than 1%. This reflected that most of the components falling against the US dollar in January, retracing some of the gains registered in late 2023. Among the G10 currencies in the BWCI, the Japanese yen was the weakest, falling by a little more than 4.5%, dragged lower, arguably, by the more than 20 bp rise in the US 10-year yield. Sterling was the strongest currency, and it rose by a modest 0.2%. All the emerging market currencies in the BWCI fell, except the Indian rupee, which eked out a minor (0.1%) gain. The South Korean won fell by about 3.6%, the most of the emerging market constituents. The Chinese yuan fell about 1.1%, and among the currencies that declined at the start of the year, only the Russian ruble (-0.5%) and the Mexican peso (-1.05%) in the index fell by less. 

The BWCI downtrend in January may not be complete, but we suspect the lion's share of the adjustment is behind it. We think that markets are still too ambitious in pricing the timing and extent of Fed rate cuts, and until it adjusts more, there is still upside risk for the dollar, especially as the economic impulses from Europe remain weak. If new initiatives from China get traction, better cyclical news could be forthcoming, even without structural reforms.


U.S. Dollar: There are often many factors that drive exchange rates in $7.5-trillion average daily turnover market, but most recently the dollar has broadly tracked interest rate expectations. In Q4 23, the market recognized the Fed was pivoting, US interest rates fell sharply and dragged the dollar lower. This year, official comments and economic data persuaded the investors that it had been too aggressive and as interest rates rose, the greenback was recovered. The Summary of Economic Projections issued in December was a clear recognition by officials that the next move will be a rate cut. However, officials do not have the same sense of urgency that had been expressed in the market. The median Fed forecast anticipated that three interest rate cuts would be appropriate this year. Ahead of the January 30-31 FOMC meeting, the market is pricing five cuts and a 40% chance of a sixth cut. We suspect there may be convergence toward four cuts. During this election year, it seems in neither party's partisan interest to force a government shutdown, but the path toward agreeing an appropriations bills for a dozen departments four months after the start of the fiscal year remains difficult. Spending authorization was extended into early March. We expect solid, even if not spectacular job growth in January, but recognize that the harsh winter conditions for much of the country in the middle of the month likely dampened activity. Because we think the interest rate adjustment may not have been completed, we suspect the dollar's correction from the November-December slide can extend further. This could translate into the 104.00-50 area in the Dollar Index (settled January 26 ~103.40). 


Euro: The eurozone seems ill-prepared to address the economic and political challenges that may lie ahead. The political leadership appears particularly weak. The German coalition government is terribly unpopular. In France, President Macron has begun the year by sacking his prime minister and appointing Attal, a young popular French politician, in an apparent bid to revive his political fortunes. Le Pen is running ahead of his party in the mid-year EU parliament election. The economic performance remains moribund. The external balance has recovered from the disruptions associated with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but the domestic growth remains poor, and the near-term prospects, through the first half, is not much better. One of the bright spots is that the weak economy and rate hikes have not spurred much of a rise in unemployment (so far). The ECB has signaled that it is in no rush to cut rates, with a cut maybe near mid-year. The euro traded between about $1.0815 and $1.10 in the first four weeks of January. We suspect most of the correction from seven-cent Q4 23 rally has been achieved, but it may not be over. The risk may extend by a little more than a cent to the downside. The ECB has signaled a rate cut is likely near midyear, yet the swaps market has almost an 88% chance of a hike in April. 

(As of January 26, indicative closing prices, previous in parentheses)

Spot: $1.0855 ($1.1040) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: $1.0875 ($1.0990) One-month forward: $1.0865 ($1.1055)   One-month implied vol: 6.2% (6.9%) 


Japanese Yen: The combination of the backing up of US rates and greater confidence that the Bank of Japan will not hike rates until at least April dragged the yen lower in January. It fell by about 4.6%. The dramatic slide in US rates November and December 2023 saw the dollar drop from nearly JPY152 in mid-November to almost JPY140 in late December. The greenback recovered to almost JPY149 in the first four weeks of January before settling near JPY148. Despite fiscal efforts, an extraordinary monetary policy, and an undervalued currency, the Japanese economy struggled in H2 23. It contracted almost 3% at an annualized rate in Q3 23, with consumption and business investment falling in Q2 23 and Q3 23. Although the economy is expected to have returned of growth in Q4 (GDP is due February 15), it may take the better part of three quarters to recoup the activity lost in Q3 23. Public support for Prime Minister Kishida and the cabinet is weak. The Liberal Democratic Party had not recovered from the negativity around its ties with the Unification Church before a campaign financing scandal erupted, hobbling some of the largest factions within the party. Still, one of Kishida's achievements has been the stronger defense posture, which includes acquiring offensive capabilities and reduced barriers to the export of armaments. Ironically, core CPI is likely to fall below the central bank's target before it finally exits its negative interest rate policy, seen most likely in April. The dollar's rally in January stretched the momentum indicators suggesting that the "correction" may be nearly complete. We suspect the JPY150 area may hold as a consolidative phase in both US rates and the dollar seems likely after the large adjustment in January. 

Spot: JPY148.15 (JPY141.05) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: JPY145.65 (JPY142.05) One-month forward: JPY147.45 (JPY140.35) One-month implied vol: 8.25% (10.7%) 


British Pound: Since the middle of December, sterling has been chopping in a two-cent range between $1.2600 and $1.2800. Twice in December, the upper end was frayed, and once in January, the lower end was violated, but not on a closing basis. The consolidation is alleviating the overbought technical condition that resulted from the roughly eight-cent rally in Q4 23. We are more inclined to see an eventual downside break, which initially could be worth a cent. The swaps market suggests the Bank of England easing cycle may begin after the Fed and ECB and deliver fewer cuts this year. Specifically, the market does not have the first cut fully discounted until June, and it has 105 bp of easing discounted for this year. At the end of last year, the swaps market discounted slightly more than 170 bp of cuts. The Bank of England meets on February 1, with practically no chance of a change in policy. The economy has been struggling since growing by 0.3% (quarter-over-quarter) in Q1 23. It was stagnant in Q2 and contracted by 0.1% in Q3. GDP for Q4 23 is due February 15. The risk is of another small contraction. The near stagnant conditions may persist through the H1 24. At the same time, the base effect warns that measured inflation will fall sharply in the coming months. In the February-May 2023 period, the UK's CPI rose at an annualized rate of almost 11.5%. As these large monthly increases drop out of the 12-month comparison, with conservative assumption, the year-over-year pace could be halved from the 4% pace seen at the end of last year. The Sunak government is unpopular and support for the Tory party is around 25% according to recent polls. Labour is holding on to almost a 20-percentage point lead. Chancellor Hunt will deliver the Spring budget (March 6), and it is expected to offer tax cuts ahead of the national election expected later this year.

Spot: $1.2705 ($1.2730) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: $1.2655 ($1.2650) One-month forward:  $1.2735 ($1.2710) One-month implied vol: 6.6% (7.2%) 

Canadian Dollar:  The Bank of Canada left its policy rate steady at 5.0% last month. Citing the persistence of underlying inflation, officials expressed little sense of urgency to ease policy. While Governor Macklem refused to rule out an additional hike, he was clear that should economic activity evolve as officials expect, the question becomes when it should cut. The central bank chopped its forecast for Q4 23 GDP (due on February 29) to flat from 0.8% It projects 0.5% annualized growth in Q1 24. The Bank of Canada sees headline inflation remaining around 3% in H1 24 before slowing to 2.5% by the end of the year. The swaps market has the first cut fully discounted by mid-year and looks for almost 100 bp in cuts this year, back loaded. What seems to drive the exchange rate on most days are the broad direction of the US dollar (think Dollar Index) and the general risk-appetite. The Canadian dollar is often among the most sensitive dollar pairs to the movement of the S&P 500. Contrary to popular wisdom, the Canadian dollar's exchange rate does not appear tightly linked to oil prices. After falling by about 5.2% in November-December 2023, the US dollar recovered rose by about 1.6% in the first four weeks of January. We suspect the move is not complete and look for the greenback to test the CAD1.3600-20 area, but a break of CAD1.3400 would bolster the chances that a high is in place.

Spot: CAD1.3455 (CAD 1.3245) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: CAD1.3475 (CAD1.3300) One-month forward: CAD1.3445 (CAD1.3235) One-month implied vol: 5.0% (5.7%) 


Australian Dollar:  In the last two months of 2023, the Australian dollar appreciated by about 9.5% against the US dollar. Momentum indicators were stretched, and combination of soft inflation and a disastrous labor market report provided the precipitating drivers that forced the Australian dollar to surrender more than half of its gains in the first four weeks of the year. The loss of nearly 107k full-time jobs in December is a record outside of a couple of months early in the pandemic. This outsized loss was not confirmed in other high-frequency time series, which appear to confirm the general slowing of economic activity, not a collapse. The January job report is due February 15. However, even as inflation falls and the economic pulse is faint, the market has pushed out the first cut from May (at the end of 2023) to September now. It has also reduced the amount of cuts this year from 68 bp at the end of December to about 40 bp in late January. The Australian dollar's downside correction may not be complete, and the initial risk could extend to $0.6450-$0.6500.

Spot: $0.6575 ($0.6810) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: $0.6635 ($0.6775) One-month forward: $0.6585 ($0.6820)    One-month implied vol: 9.0% (9.4%) 


Mexican Peso: Mexico's economy is slowing, and inflation is falling. This will set the stage for the first rate cut in the cycle. A case can be made for a cut at the February 8 Banxico meeting, but on balance, a cut at the March 21 meeting, a day after the FOMC meeting, may be more likely. The central bank forecasts growth to slow to nearly 2% this year from about 3% in 2023. The IMF and the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey concur with the central bank. Progress to restore price stability has been extensive. The headline CPI peaked in July 2022 near 8.15%. It reached about 4.25% in October 2023 and finished the year near 4.65%. The core rate peaked in November 2022 around 8.50% and finished last year slightly below 5.30%. The headline rate accelerated to an almost 7% annualized rate in Q4 23 from about 4.4% in Q3. The core rate rose at annualized rate of around 4.35% in Q4 23 after a 4.10% annualized pace in previous three months. The peso has been a darling of the market for some time, and given market positioning (over-weight asset managers, and speculators carry a large net long peso position in the futures market), we think the risk is for some liquidation ahead of the June election. It could be expressed as greater sensitivity to risk-off developments. The high carry still makes it an expensive short. In the middle of January and against in late January, the dollar jumped and tested the 200-day moving average (~MXN17.37-38) and the first retracement of the November-December downtrend. It held. Support may be seen in the MXN17.00-05 area and a break could signal a retest on the January low near MXN16.7850. 

Spot: MXN17.16 (MXN16.97) Median Bloomberg One-Month forecast: MXN17.33 (MXN17.20) One-month forward: MXN17.25 (MXN17.06) One-month implied vol: 10.3% (11.2%)


Chinese Yuan: Beijing has managed to deliver a stable exchange rate. The US dollar has largely been confined to a CNY7.10-CNY7.20 for more than two months. Although conventional wisdom often attributes malevolent intentions to the PBOC efforts, it seems that the exchange rate movement is understandable as a reactive function to the dollar's broad movement, especially against the yen and euro. After leaving key interest rates steady, the PBOC delivered a 50 bp cut in required reserves, which frees up an estimated CNY1 trillion (~$140 bln). More stimulus is widely expected, even if the timing is difficult to anticipate. While 10-year yields US and European rose in January, they fell slightly in China. Short-term rates are also low making the offshore yuan an attractive funding leg in structured trades. After a sharp sell-off of Chinese shares on the mainland and in Hong Kong, Beijing's pain threshold was discovered. Although Beijing eschews the performance of the equities as a key metric, officials appear to be stepping up their support using formal and informal channels. Of course, China and the US have different institutional configuration and authority, but Beijing's effort to stem the equity sell-off seems to have a similar goal in mind as the so-called "Fed Put" that used monetary policy to stop a destabilizing equity market decline. In this context, a broadly stable exchange rate may act as a bit of a fire break to a potentially vicious cycle. 

Spot: CNY7.1775 

(CNY7.10) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: CNY7.1640 (CNY7.1170) One-month forward: CNY7.0950 (CNY7.0810) One-month implied vol 4.7% (4.7%) 



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United Airlines adds new flights to faraway destinations

The airline said that it has been working hard to "find hidden gem destinations."



Since countries started opening up after the pandemic in 2021 and 2022, airlines have been seeing demand soar not just for major global cities and popular routes but also for farther-away destinations.

Numerous reports, including a recent TripAdvisor survey of trending destinations, showed that there has been a rise in U.S. traveler interest in Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea and Vietnam as well as growing tourism traction in off-the-beaten-path European countries such as Slovenia, Estonia and Montenegro.

Related: 'No more flying for you': Travel agency sounds alarm over risk of 'carbon passports'

As a result, airlines have been looking at their networks to include more faraway destinations as well as smaller cities that are growing increasingly popular with tourists and may not be served by their competitors.

The Philippines has been popular among tourists in recent years.


United brings back more routes, says it is committed to 'finding hidden gems'

This week, United Airlines  (UAL)  announced that it will be launching a new route from Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) to Morocco's Marrakesh. While it is only the country's fourth-largest city, Marrakesh is a particularly popular place for tourists to seek out the sights and experiences that many associate with the country — colorful souks, gardens with ornate architecture and mosques from the Moorish period.

More Travel:

"We have consistently been ahead of the curve in finding hidden gem destinations for our customers to explore and remain committed to providing the most unique slate of travel options for their adventures abroad," United's SVP of Global Network Planning Patrick Quayle, said in a press statement.

The new route will launch on Oct. 24 and take place three times a week on a Boeing 767-300ER  (BA)  plane that is equipped with 46 Polaris business class and 22 Premium Plus seats. The plane choice was a way to reach a luxury customer customer looking to start their holiday in Marrakesh in the plane.

Along with the new Morocco route, United is also launching a flight between Houston (IAH) and Colombia's Medellín on Oct. 27 as well as a route between Tokyo and Cebu in the Philippines on July 31 — the latter is known as a "fifth freedom" flight in which the airline flies to the larger hub from the mainland U.S. and then goes on to smaller Asian city popular with tourists after some travelers get off (and others get on) in Tokyo.

United's network expansion includes new 'fifth freedom' flight

In the fall of 2023, United became the first U.S. airline to fly to the Philippines with a new Manila-San Francisco flight. It has expanded its service to Asia from different U.S. cities earlier last year. Cebu has been on its radar amid growing tourist interest in the region known for marine parks, rainforests and Spanish-style architecture.

With the summer coming up, United also announced that it plans to run its current flights to Hong Kong, Seoul, and Portugal's Porto more frequently at different points of the week and reach four weekly flights between Los Angeles and Shanghai by August 29.

"This is your normal, exciting network planning team back in action," Quayle told travel website The Points Guy of the airline's plans for the new routes.

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Walmart launches clever answer to Target’s new membership program

The retail superstore is adding a new feature to its Walmart+ plan — and customers will be happy.



It's just been a few days since Target  (TGT)  launched its new Target Circle 360 paid membership plan. 

The plan offers free and fast shipping on many products to customers, initially for $49 a year and then $99 after the initial promotional signup period. It promises to be a success, since many Target customers are loyal to the brand and will go out of their way to shop at one instead of at its two larger peers, Walmart and Amazon.

Related: Walmart makes a major price cut that will delight customers

And stop us if this sounds familiar: Target will rely on its more than 2,000 stores to act as fulfillment hubs. 

This model is a proven winner; Walmart also uses its more than 4,600 stores as fulfillment and shipping locations to get orders to customers as soon as possible.

Sometimes, this means shipping goods from the nearest warehouse. But if a desired product is in-store and closer to a customer, it reduces miles on the road and delivery time. It's a kind of logistical magic that makes any efficiency lover's (or retail nerd's) heart go pitter patter. 

Walmart rolls out answer to Target's new membership tier

Walmart has certainly had more time than Target to develop and work out the kinks in Walmart+. It first launched the paid membership in 2020 during the height of the pandemic, when many shoppers sheltered at home but still required many staples they might ordinarily pick up at a Walmart, like cleaning supplies, personal-care products, pantry goods and, of course, toilet paper. 

It also undercut Amazon  (AMZN)  Prime, which costs customers $139 a year for free and fast shipping (plus several other benefits including access to its streaming service, Amazon Prime Video). 

Walmart+ costs $98 a year, which also gets you free and speedy delivery, plus access to a Paramount+ streaming subscription, fuel savings, and more. 

An employee at a Merida, Mexico, Walmart. (Photo by Jeffrey Greenberg/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

Jeff Greenberg/Getty Images

If that's not enough to tempt you, however, Walmart+ just added a new benefit to its membership program, ostensibly to compete directly with something Target now has: ultrafast delivery. 

Target Circle 360 particularly attracts customers with free same-day delivery for select orders over $35 and as little as one-hour delivery on select items. Target executes this through its Shipt subsidiary.

We've seen this lightning-fast delivery speed only in snippets from Amazon, the king of delivery efficiency. Who better to take on Target, though, than Walmart, which is using a similar store-as-fulfillment-center model? 

"Walmart is stepping up to save our customers even more time with our latest delivery offering: Express On-Demand Early Morning Delivery," Walmart said in a statement, just a day after Target Circle 360 launched. "Starting at 6 a.m., earlier than ever before, customers can enjoy the convenience of On-Demand delivery."

Walmart  (WMT)  clearly sees consumers' desire for near-instant delivery, which obviously saves time and trips to the store. Rather than waiting a day for your order to show up, it might be on your doorstep when you wake up. 

Consumers also tend to spend more money when they shop online, and they remain stickier as paying annual members. So, to a growing number of retail giants, almost instant gratification like this seems like something worth striving for.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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President Biden Delivers The “Darkest, Most Un-American Speech Given By A President”

President Biden Delivers The "Darkest, Most Un-American Speech Given By A President"

Having successfully raged, ranted, lied, and yelled through…



President Biden Delivers The "Darkest, Most Un-American Speech Given By A President"

Having successfully raged, ranted, lied, and yelled through the State of The Union, President Biden can go back to his crypt now.

Whatever 'they' gave Biden, every American man, woman, and the other should be allowed to take it - though it seems the cocktail brings out 'dark Brandon'?

Tl;dw: Biden's Speech tonight ...

  • Fund Ukraine.

  • Trump is threat to democracy and America itself.

  • Abortion is good.

  • American Economy is stronger than ever.

  • Inflation wasn't Biden's fault.

  • Illegals are Americans too.

  • Republicans are responsible for the border crisis.

  • Trump is bad.

  • Biden stands with trans-children.

  • J6 was the worst insurrection since the Civil War.

(h/t @TCDMS99)

Tucker Carlson's response sums it all up perfectly:

"that was possibly the darkest, most un-American speech given by an American president. It wasn't a speech, it was a rant..."

Carlson continued: "The true measure of a nation's greatness lies within its capacity to control borders, yet Bid refuses to do it."

"In a fair election, Joe Biden cannot win"

And concluded:

“There was not a meaningful word for the entire duration about the things that actually matter to people who live here.”

Victor Davis Hanson added some excellent color, but this was probably the best line on Biden:

"he doesn't care... he lives in an alternative reality."

*  *  *

Watch SOTU Live here...

*   *   *

Mises' Connor O'Keeffe, warns: "Be on the Lookout for These Lies in Biden's State of the Union Address." 

On Thursday evening, President Joe Biden is set to give his third State of the Union address. The political press has been buzzing with speculation over what the president will say. That speculation, however, is focused more on how Biden will perform, and which issues he will prioritize. Much of the speech is expected to be familiar.

The story Biden will tell about what he has done as president and where the country finds itself as a result will be the same dishonest story he's been telling since at least the summer.

He'll cite government statistics to say the economy is growing, unemployment is low, and inflation is down.

Something that has been frustrating Biden, his team, and his allies in the media is that the American people do not feel as economically well off as the official data says they are. Despite what the White House and establishment-friendly journalists say, the problem lies with the data, not the American people's ability to perceive their own well-being.

As I wrote back in January, the reason for the discrepancy is the lack of distinction made between private economic activity and government spending in the most frequently cited economic indicators. There is an important difference between the two:

  • Government, unlike any other entity in the economy, can simply take money and resources from others to spend on things and hire people. Whether or not the spending brings people value is irrelevant

  • It's the private sector that's responsible for producing goods and services that actually meet people's needs and wants. So, the private components of the economy have the most significant effect on people's economic well-being.

Recently, government spending and hiring has accounted for a larger than normal share of both economic activity and employment. This means the government is propping up these traditional measures, making the economy appear better than it actually is. Also, many of the jobs Biden and his allies take credit for creating will quickly go away once it becomes clear that consumers don't actually want whatever the government encouraged these companies to produce.

On top of all that, the administration is dealing with the consequences of their chosen inflation rhetoric.

Since its peak in the summer of 2022, the president's team has talked about inflation "coming back down," which can easily give the impression that it's prices that will eventually come back down.

But that's not what that phrase means. It would be more honest to say that price increases are slowing down.

Americans are finally waking up to the fact that the cost of living will not return to prepandemic levels, and they're not happy about it.

The president has made some clumsy attempts at damage control, such as a Super Bowl Sunday video attacking food companies for "shrinkflation"—selling smaller portions at the same price instead of simply raising prices.

In his speech Thursday, Biden is expected to play up his desire to crack down on the "corporate greed" he's blaming for high prices.

In the name of "bringing down costs for Americans," the administration wants to implement targeted price ceilings - something anyone who has taken even a single economics class could tell you does more harm than good. Biden would never place the blame for the dramatic price increases we've experienced during his term where it actually belongs—on all the government spending that he and President Donald Trump oversaw during the pandemic, funded by the creation of $6 trillion out of thin air - because that kind of spending is precisely what he hopes to kick back up in a second term.

If reelected, the president wants to "revive" parts of his so-called Build Back Better agenda, which he tried and failed to pass in his first year. That would bring a significant expansion of domestic spending. And Biden remains committed to the idea that Americans must be forced to continue funding the war in Ukraine. That's another topic Biden is expected to highlight in the State of the Union, likely accompanied by the lie that Ukraine spending is good for the American economy. It isn't.

It's not possible to predict all the ways President Biden will exaggerate, mislead, and outright lie in his speech on Thursday. But we can be sure of two things. The "state of the Union" is not as strong as Biden will say it is. And his policy ambitions risk making it much worse.

*  *  *

The American people will be tuning in on their smartphones, laptops, and televisions on Thursday evening to see if 'sloppy joe' 81-year-old President Joe Biden can coherently put together more than two sentences (even with a teleprompter) as he gives his third State of the Union in front of a divided Congress. 

President Biden will speak on various topics to convince voters why he shouldn't be sent to a retirement home.

According to CNN sources, here are some of the topics Biden will discuss tonight:

  • Economic issues: Biden and his team have been drafting a speech heavy on economic populism, aides said, with calls for higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy – an attempt to draw a sharp contrast with Republicans and their likely presidential nominee, Donald Trump.

  • Health care expenses: Biden will also push for lowering health care costs and discuss his efforts to go after drug manufacturers to lower the cost of prescription medications — all issues his advisers believe can help buoy what have been sagging economic approval ratings.

  • Israel's war with Hamas: Also looming large over Biden's primetime address is the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, which has consumed much of the president's time and attention over the past few months. The president's top national security advisers have been working around the clock to try to finalize a ceasefire-hostages release deal by Ramadan, the Muslim holy month that begins next week.

  • An argument for reelection: Aides view Thursday's speech as a critical opportunity for the president to tout his accomplishments in office and lay out his plans for another four years in the nation's top job. Even though viewership has declined over the years, the yearly speech reliably draws tens of millions of households.

Sources provided more color on Biden's SOTU address: 

The speech is expected to be heavy on economic populism. The president will talk about raising taxes on corporations and the wealthy. He'll highlight efforts to cut costs for the American people, including pushing Congress to help make prescription drugs more affordable.

Biden will talk about the need to preserve democracy and freedom, a cornerstone of his re-election bid. That includes protecting and bolstering reproductive rights, an issue Democrats believe will energize voters in November. Biden is also expected to promote his unity agenda, a key feature of each of his addresses to Congress while in office.

Biden is also expected to give remarks on border security while the invasion of illegals has become one of the most heated topics among American voters. A majority of voters are frustrated with radical progressives in the White House facilitating the illegal migrant invasion. 

It is probable that the president will attribute the failure of the Senate border bill to the Republicans, a claim many voters view as unfounded. This is because the White House has the option to issue an executive order to restore border security, yet opts not to do so

Maybe this is why? 

While Biden addresses the nation, the Biden administration will be armed with a social media team to pump propaganda to at least 100 million Americans. 

"The White House hosted about 70 creators, digital publishers, and influencers across three separate events" on Wednesday and Thursday, a White House official told CNN. 

Not a very capable social media team... 

The administration's move to ramp up social media operations comes as users on X are mostly free from government censorship with Elon Musk at the helm. This infuriates Democrats, who can no longer censor their political enemies on X. 

Meanwhile, Democratic lawmakers tell Axios that the president's SOTU performance will be critical as he tries to dispel voter concerns about his elderly age. The address reached as many as 27 million people in 2023. 

"We are all nervous," said one House Democrat, citing concerns about the president's "ability to speak without blowing things."

The SOTU address comes as Biden's polling data is in the dumps

BetOnline has created several money-making opportunities for gamblers tonight, such as betting on what word Biden mentions the most. 

As well as...

We will update you when Tucker Carlson's live feed of SOTU is published. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 07:44

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