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European stocks bounce back, dollar pushes higher

Stocks rebound but flat across the week European stocks are rebounding on Friday after Covid inspired losses from the previous session. Instead, corporate updates and Eurozone inflation have taken centre stage. Investors are upbeat as they look to the…

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Stocks rebound but flat across the week

European stocks are rebounding on Friday after Covid inspired losses from the previous session. Instead, corporate updates and Eurozone inflation have taken centre stage.

Investors are upbeat as they look to the start of the quarterly earnings season. Numbers are expected to show an improvement as businesses across the continent reopened following the pandemic.

Today’s move higher comes following steep losses in the previous session as investors fretted about rising Covid cases. In many countries, vaccination rates still aren’t at levels where the threat of another lockdown can be avoided. As such, the Covid risk to the market still exists. Recent lockdowns in parts of Asia are serving as a reminder of that.

European stocks have seen a solid runup across the previous quarter, but the momentum behind the rally has stalled recently. Strong corporate earnings data could go some way to negating the lingering Covid concerns and to provide impetus to push indices to fresh all-time highs.

Looking ahead, US stocks are pointing to a mildly stronger start after a mixed close in the previous session. In fact, trading across the week has been a mixed picture as investors weigh up the Fed’s assurance of loose monetary policy against high and rising inflation.

Attention will be firmly on US retail sales data and Michigan consumer confidence for further clues over the health of the US economy. Expectations are for another contraction in retail sales after a disappointment last month, which could weigh on sentiment.

USD set for strong weekly gains

The US dollar is pushing higher, extending gains for a second straight session and is set to end the week over 0.5% higher. This would mark the strongest rally in the US dollar in over a month.

The greenback has found support across the week from safe-haven flows as Covid cases rise and from surging inflation prompting speculation that the Fed could move to tighten monetary policy sooner. Whilst Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has tried hard to play down expectations of a move to tighten policy, the persistently higher inflation figures are making it hard for the Fed to convincingly defend a dovish stance.

The pound was putting in a more convincing performance than it has for most of the week, supported in part by a more hawkish tilt from the BoE. After above-target inflation and surging wages, BoE official Michael Saunders suggested that the central bank could need to act sooner to tighten monetary policy and rein in inflation.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, please check out our economic calendar at www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/

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Another discount retailer makes checkout change to fight theft

The value retailer is discouraging theft at the checkout counter.

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Huge retail chains like Walmart  (WMT) , Target  (TGT) , CVS  (CVS) and others have faced a high amount of retail theft, or what they call inventory shrink, since 2020 and have been implementing measures to eliminate those costly losses.

Among the most common measures used by Walmart, Target and some others has been locking up popular items behind glass cases to prevent shoplifting. Customers shopping at these stores have encountered a lot of their favorite products, such as cosmetics, shampoo, over-the-counter drugs and even laundry detergent locked up in those cases.

Related: Target limits self-checkout, makes a change customers will love

Shoppers need to either push a button near the product to alert a worker to unlock the case or, in some situations, run around the store looking for a worker with the proper key to open the case. It's a very inconvenient problem for shoppers, and not all stores are consistent with their lockup policies.

For example, one Walmart store might lock up some of their instant coffee products, while another cross-town Walmart location, or even a Target competitor, doesn't lock up any coffee.

Retail stores have also implemented new self-checkout rules to discourage inventory shrink, but again, stores are inconsistent with their rules. Walmart stores have a 20 items or less rule for their self-checkout lanes to try to steer shoppers with more items to checkout clerks that might help reduce the occurrence of theft. But neither customers, nor workers seem to be observing that rule. Target on March 17 implemented a new 10 items or fewer rule in its self-checkout lanes, but we'll see if anyone enforces it.

These self-checkout requirements are also supposed to speed up the checkout process, but that only works if all the self-check registers are working and an adequate amount of checkout clerks are working registers as well.

The next step for retailers in addressing inventory shrink at self-checkout would be to eliminate self-check altogether.

Shopping in a Five Below store.

Pat Greenhouse/The Boston Globe via Getty Images

Five Below cuts back on self-checkout lanes 

After finishing the fourth quarter of 2023 with a "higher-than-planned shrink," or higher level of theft than expected in its stores, value retailer Five Below  (FIVE)  has implemented associate-assisted checkout in all of its stores for 2024, CEO Joel Anderson said on the company's earnings call on March 20.

"In addition, in our high-shrink stores, the primary option for checkout is more of the traditional, over-the-counter associate checkout," Anderson said. "We expect to have 75% of our transactions chain-wide assisted by an associate with a goal of 100% in our highest shrink, highest-risk stores to be fully transacted by an associate."

The retailer also checks receipts and adds guards

"Additionally, in those stores, we’re implementing further mitigation efforts, including receipt checking, additional store payroll and guards. We intend to measure progress as soon as Q2 when we perform a limited number of store counts," Anderson said.

Five Below tested several inventory shrink mitigation initiatives late in the third quarter and into the fourth quarter of 2023, which included product-related tests, front-end initiatives and guard programs, Anderson said in the earnings call. He said the most significant change the Philadelphia-based company made across most of the chain was to limit the number of self-checkout registers that were open, while positioning an associate upfront to further assist customers.

Anderson said he is confident the company's measures will help it over time, but the company has not included any financial impact for shrink reduction in its 2024 guidance. The company, however will aggressively pursue returning to pre-pandemic levels of shrink or offsetting the impact over the next few years, he said.

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GSK to part ways with ‘most’ Bellus Health employees a year after $2B buy

Many of the employees behind GSK’s late-stage investigational drug for chronic cough will be let go at the end of March.
Roberto Bellini
“After having…

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Many of the employees behind GSK’s late-stage investigational drug for chronic cough will be let go at the end of March.

Roberto Bellini

“After having completed the transition activities linked to the GSK acquisition, most Bellus Health employees will be wrapping up their involvement with the company on March 31,” Roberto Bellini, the longtime CEO of Bellus, wrote Thursday on LinkedIn.

A year ago, GSK bought the Canadian biotech for $2 billion for Bellus’ Phase 3 chronic cough candidate, which was expected to compete with Merck’s P2X3 antagonist. That drug was rejected by the FDA for a second time in December.

In his LinkedIn post, Bellini said it was the “end of an era.” He’s now a managing partner at life sciences investor BSquared Capital.

“We’re excited to see GSK complete the last legs of the journey and fulfill our mission of getting this important product to the chronic cough patient community,” Bellini wrote.

GSK, which completed the deal in June, did not disclose the number of roles impacted. In his LinkedIn post, Bellini tagged about 40 people whose profiles list them as Bellus employees.

“During the GSK-Bellus acquisition, we retained employees to a predetermined date to ensure the successful integration of the business,” a GSK spokesperson told Endpoints News. “As often is the case during this process, redundancies may occur.”

GSK is currently running two Phase 3 trials for its lead drug from Bellus, a P2X3 antagonist known as camlipixant or BLU-5937. Data are expected next year, the drugmaker has said.

“We look forward to continuing to drive the CALM Phase 3 clinical development program forward to address the unmet needs of patients living with refractory chronic cough,” the spokesperson wrote.

GSK has described camlipixant as one of its top clinical prospects, and chief commercial officer Luke Miels has said the company projects peak sales in the “single billion dollar” range.

Chronic cough can interrupt daily activities, impair people’s ability to work and disrupt social experiences as some say the condition has been stigmatized due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The pharma has estimated about 10 million people in the US and EU experience refractory chronic cough for more than a year.

Merck has said it’s going through feedback from the FDA’s latest no-go for gefapixant, its chronic cough candidate. The treatment is approved in the EU, Switzerland and Japan.

Other companies in the category include startup Nocion Therapeutics, which this month reeled in $62 million for a Phase 2b this year testing whether its alternative approach to treatment can work. Aldeyra Therapeutics, meanwhile, “deprioritized” its mid-stage treatment candidate in January.

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Spread & Containment

Five Below makes checkout changes shoppers may not like

The value retailer is discouraging theft at the checkout counter.

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on

Huge retail chains like Walmart  (WMT) , Target  (TGT) , CVS  (CVS) and others have faced a high amount of retail theft, or what they call inventory shrink, since 2020 and have been implementing measures to eliminate those costly losses.

Among the most common measures used by Walmart, Target and some others has been locking up popular items behind glass cases to prevent shoplifting. Customers shopping at these stores have encountered a lot of their favorite products, such as cosmetics, shampoo, over-the-counter drugs and even laundry detergent locked up in those cases.

Related: Target limits self-checkout, makes a change customers will love

Shoppers need to either push a button near the product to alert a worker to unlock the case or, in some situations, run around the store looking for a worker with the proper key to open the case. It's a very inconvenient problem for shoppers, and not all stores are consistent with their lockup policies.

For example, one Walmart store might lock up some of their instant coffee products, while another cross-town Walmart location, or even a Target competitor, doesn't lock up any coffee.

Retail stores have also implemented new self-checkout rules to discourage inventory shrink, but again, stores are inconsistent with their rules. Walmart stores have a 20 items or less rule for their self-checkout lanes to try to steer shoppers with more items to checkout clerks that might help reduce the occurrence of theft. But neither customers, nor workers seem to be observing that rule. Target on March 17 implemented a new 10 items or fewer rule in its self-checkout lanes, but we'll see if anyone enforces it.

These self-checkout requirements are also supposed to speed up the checkout process, but that only works if all the self-check registers are working and an adequate amount of checkout clerks are working registers as well.

The next step for retailers in addressing inventory shrink at self-checkout would be to eliminate self-check altogether.

Shopping in a Five Below store.

Pat Greenhouse/The Boston Globe via Getty Images

Five Below cuts back on self-checkout lanes 

After finishing the fourth quarter of 2023 with a "higher-than-planned shrink," or higher level of theft than expected in its stores, value retailer Five Below  (FIVE)  has implemented associate-assisted checkout in all of its stores for 2024, CEO Joel Anderson said on the company's earnings call on March 20.

"In addition, in our high-shrink stores, the primary option for checkout is more of the traditional, over-the-counter associate checkout," Anderson said. "We expect to have 75% of our transactions chain-wide assisted by an associate with a goal of 100% in our highest shrink, highest-risk stores to be fully transacted by an associate."

The retailer also checks receipts and adds guards

"Additionally, in those stores, we’re implementing further mitigation efforts, including receipt checking, additional store payroll and guards. We intend to measure progress as soon as Q2 when we perform a limited number of store counts," Anderson said.

Five Below tested several inventory shrink mitigation initiatives late in the third quarter and into the fourth quarter of 2023, which included product-related tests, front-end initiatives and guard programs, Anderson said in the earnings call. He said the most significant change the Philadelphia-based company made across most of the chain was to limit the number of self-checkout registers that were open, while positioning an associate upfront to further assist customers.

Anderson said he is confident the company's measures will help it over time, but the company has not included any financial impact for shrink reduction in its 2024 guidance. The company, however will aggressively pursue returning to pre-pandemic levels of shrink or offsetting the impact over the next few years, he said.

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