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Dollar’s Upside Correction to Continue

Dollar’s Upside Correction to Continue



A phase in the markets that began in mid-May ended last week with a dramatic sell-off in stocks and risk-assets in general.  The Federal Reserve confirmed what investors already knew.  After all, the implied interest rates for the December 2021 fed funds futures implied a negative yield at the start of the month, and a rate hike was not reflected in the derivatives markets until 2023.  

It may not have been what the Fed said or did, but simply the old "buy the rumor sell the fact" trigger of what we have suggested the charts implied:  the bull run in the risk assets was getting stretched.  Nor can the increase in the Covid cases as stay-at-home orders are rescinded really be much of surprise.  After all, the virus has not been cured, and shutting down the economy was a way to avoid overburdening the public health infrastructure.  Moreover, some assets markets had rallied, like the equities and currencies in Latam, as cases and fatalities increased. 

Although markets stabilized ahead of the weekend after the drama on June 11, we suspect that corrective forces will carry over into next week.  Below we suggest some corrective targets while being sensitive to levels that would indicate the trend moves have resumed.   

Dollar Index: The MACD and Slow Stochastic indicators have begun to turn higher. The 97.35 area was overcome ahead of the weekend—the next target immediate target 98.00.  The 200-day moving average and the (61.8%) retracement of the leg down since the May 25 high (~100.00) are found near 98.40. A convincing move above there would be significant.  A break of the 96.20-96.30 area would likely signal the end of the corrective bounce.  

Euro: The single currency peaked in the middle of the week a little above $1.1420 and pulled back to nearly $1.1210 before the weekend.  The euro tried to rally after the June 11 drop and made it up to  $1.1340, stopping shy of the area (~$1.1350-$1.1375) that would have signaled the resumption of the rally. The Slow Stochastic did not confirm the high, and the MACD is turning lower. The next important target is near $1.1150, and then, possibly, a test on the 200-day moving average (~$1.1025). Three-month implied volatility has begun trending higher, and the risk-reversals (skew between calls and puts) have also started increasing.  This suggests that euro calls are being bought and may reflect rolling spot positions into calls by levered accounts.   

Japanese Yen:  After reaching almost JPY110.00 after the US employment data on June 5, the dollar backed off in the first four sessions last week before stabilizing ahead of the weekend. The greenback found bids near JPY106.60. A break would signal a test on JPY106, which is more significant support. It recovered to around JPY107.60 ahead of the weekend. The Slow Stochastic is still headed lower while the MACD is still overextended after pulling back but looks to have flattened out. The JPY107.85 area is the first retracement objective (38.2%), and a move through there would signal an extended correction. The dollar would likely enter the JPY108.15-JPY108.55, which houses the other retracement objectives and the 200-day moving average.  

British Pound:  Sterling peaked in the middle of last week a little above $1.28.  The trendline drawn from last December's election high and the March high came in near $1.2855.  It sold off on June 11 and was unable to sustain upticks ahead of the weekend, falling to $1.2475 area.  The other important trendline is drawn off the March and May lows and begins next week around $1.24, which is also near the (61.8%) retracement objective of sterling's rally since May 25.  A break could signal a move toward $1.2180. The MACD and Slow Stochastic have turned down. It takes a move back above $1.2650 to stabilize the technical tone.

Canadian Dollar: The price action of the US dollar in the middle of last week seemed to be a bullish hammer candlestick forewarning of the bounce that lifted the greenback to CAD1.3665 before the weekend.  It had made a three-month low near CAD1.3315 on June 10.  The MACD and Slow Stochastic have turned higher.  The CAD1.3680 area corresponds to the (50%) retracement of the decline since the May 22 high (~CAD1.4050) and the 20-day moving average.  A move above there targets the CAD1.3800-CAD1.3830 area.   On the other hand, a break of the CAD1.3450-CAD1.3470 warns the US dollar's down move has resumed.  

Australian Dollar:  The drop in recent days from around $0.7060, the high for the year set on June 10 to $0.6800 ahead of the weekend, is likely to be only the first leg down in the Aussie's long overdue correction. A move lower would violate an uptrend line drawn off the March panic lows.   The MACD and Slow Stochastic have turned lower.  If it is correcting the rally that began on May 15, then it met the initial (38.2%) retracement target. The next retracement target (50%) is around $0.6735, but we suspect the next retracement objective (61.8%) near $0.6655, a little below the 200-day moving average ($0.6665) may offer stronger support.  A move above the $0.6950 undermines this bearish technical view.  

Mexican Peso:  The dollar put in the lows for the week prior to the FOMC meeting and on June 11.  However, its recovery ahead of the weekend was sharp as it retraced half of the week's loss in one fell swoop. That retracement objective was near MXN22.2050, held on a closing basis. A break of the MXN22.00 area would suggest the dollar's downtrend has resumed. Nevertheless, the technical indicators suggest the upside correction of the dollar has just begun. The first leg of the correction was to almost MXN22.95, and the second one could target the MXN23.60 and possibly the MXN24.00 area.  

Chinese Yuan: Chinese officials say that they want a stable currency, and many doubt them.  Nevertheless, they have achieved it.  The yuan fell almost 1.7% in Q1, which covers both the trade agreement with the US and the pandemic.  So far this quarter, it is flat.   However, this month it has gained about 0.75%, and the PBOC's fixings seemed to be aimed at moderating the dollar's decline.  The dollar did fall to around CNY7.0550 last week, its lowest level since the end of April. As we have suggested, the technical indicators favor corrective dollar gains in the days ahead, and this could see it could rise toward CNY7.12.   

Gold: The precious metal bounced off the $1670 area seen after the US employment data and reached almost $1745 when risk assets got hammered. It consolidated ahead of the weekend.  Broadly speaking, gold remains in a two-month range of $1650 to $1750. The MACD and Slow Stochastic have room for another probe of the highs.  In mid-May, when it pushed through the top, it got as far as $1765.40 before reversing lower.  Above there, the bigger target is $1800.  From the middle of March through the middle of May, the 30-day correlation between gold and the S&P 500 (percentage change) was positive, and it has switched to its more common relationship.  

Oil: Two candlesticks bookend last week's oil trade. The July contract began the week with a brief look above $40 a barrel and then beaten back, leaving a shooting star. Ahead of the weekend, the contract slipped below $34.50 before recovering smartly, leaving a bullish hammer candlestick.  Nevertheless, the momentum indicators have turned lower and are still in overextended territory.  This suggests that upticks are not to be trusted.  The $37.50 area may offer a nearby cap.  A break of that $34.50 area could signal a pullback toward $32.

US Rates:  After rising every day in the first week of June, the US 10-year yield fell for the first four sessions last week before stabilizing on Friday.  The yield fell almost 20 bp last week.  It had been flirting with 90 bp after the employment data, having reached 65 bp in the equity carnage on June 11.  The momentum indicators on the futures contract are positioned for additional gains.  However, the economic data that will likely be reported will likely fan hopes of an accelerating recovery. Most of the decline in the 10-year yield was not matched by the short-end, and the 2-10 year yield curve flattened by almost 18 bp last week.  

S&P 500:  The gap lower on June 11 is a critical technical development, leaving a four-day island top in its wake.  The gap (~3123.5-3181.50) may not be filled any time soon.  If the S&P 500 is retracing the last leg up from the middle of May, then it met the 50% target near 3000 (200-day moving average is 3015), overshooting it a little on an intraday basis ahead of the weekend.  The next retracement target (61.8%) is near 2945.  If instead, it is correcting the move off March's low, the initial retracement objective (38.2%) is near 2835.   The MACD and Slow Stochastic have just turned lower, suggest the deeper correction may be more likely.  


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A Climate Of Fear

A Climate Of Fear

Authored by James Gorrie via The Epoch Times,

The medical, media, and political elites’ focus has shifted from facts…



A Climate Of Fear

Authored by James Gorrie via The Epoch Times,

The medical, media, and political elites’ focus has shifted from facts to fomenting and magnifying fear.

In Franklin D. Roosevelt’s first inaugural address in 1933, the new president told a nation in the depths of the Great Depression that “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”

Those words were true and rightfully spoken at that time. Roosevelt knew that fear is a powerful emotion that limits our ability to reason, act wisely, and work together. It’s also an emotion that’s contagious and not easily diminished or dissipated.

The Power of Fear to Fragment Society

Unfortunately, Roosevelt’s words are even more applicable today.

On a personal level, decisions made under the emotional duress of fear are rarely the best ones and often the worst. Fear can bring out the best in us, but can often bring out the worst. That’s more likely to occur the more fragmented a society becomes. Fear among different groups of people creates an us-versus-them context in the minds of individuals, or even an “every-man-for-himself” attitude, which pits one group against another or even each of us against each other.

Now elevate that sense of fear to the level of the national electorate. A people or a nation that's paralyzed with fear makes rash decisions based on their fears of what could happen, not necessarily what the current situation truly is. When that happens, a society can quickly degenerate, where our base instincts determine our behavior in a law-of-the-jungle social environment.

Roosevelt knew this, as do our leaders today. The difference is that today, rather than seeking to dispel fear, our political and media elites create it, expand it, and revel in it. Rather than promote hope and strength of character in us, in a Roosevelt- or even a Reagan-like fashion, they traffic in fear and its fellow traveler social division in order to fragment our society.

It’s the old but effective divide-and-conquer strategy, and sadly, it works far too well. The mechanism for divide and conquer is the constant drumbeat of the Big Lie, which is also a tried and true method for controlling society. It was first practiced and perfected by Joseph Goebbels in Nazi Germany using the mass media, but has been successfully used by the USSR and every other communist and dictatorial regime in the world since the 1930s.

Social Media Is Magnitudes More Powerful Than Legacy Media

The difference today is the massive and pervasive presence of social media. Its reach and social saturation throughout society are magnitudes greater than have ever been possible before. What’s more, our political and media elites create and exaggerate fear without even mentioning the word. “Fear” is driven into our collective psyches under the guise of our government keeping us “safe,” while demonizing anyone who challenges that narrative.

The repetition by the media and the pharmaceutical industry of how to stay safe from COVID-19 always involves more drugs and less freedom. That’s by design. The elites that run society know that once enough of our friends, neighbors, coworkers, and others with whom we interact become more fearful than rational, they’re easily manipulated and divided into confrontational groups.

Does that sound like a conspiracy theory?

Yes, it probably does, but it’s also how the Stasi, the East German security agency, turned virtually every neighbor into an informant. The result was that people were fearful of doing anything that could be construed as being against the communist East German government. In light of what we’ve been through the last three years—and what looks to be on the horizon—the conspiracy theory accusation has lost its sting.

From Conspiracy Theory to Fact

Recall, for example, how those who received the COVID-19 vaccine turned against those who remained unvaccinated. The contrast and social division couldn’t have been clearer or more deliberate. Vaccinated people were characterized by the media and government agency spokespeople as selfless, smarter, and better human beings than those who refused the vaccine.

On the flip side, the “anti-vaxxers,” as they came to be called, were publicly derided by the medical, pharmaceutical, media, and government elites. They were accused of being low-intelligence conspiracy theory nuts who wouldn’t or couldn’t “follow the science,” even when they followed the science from experts such as Robert Malone, one of the inventors of the mRNA technology, and other medical doctors in Europe and Asia, including former Pfizer Vice President Dr. Michael Yeadon, all of whom were de-platformed from mainstream media and social media.

In fact, any “alternative” remedy to the experimental and highly dangerous mRNA vaccines, such as ivermectin, was summarily dismissed, even though nations that used ivermectin had the lowest mortality rates. As noted above, many media personalities and even medical experts with contrary opinions were silenced, shamed, and shunted into professional oblivion, being substituted by compliant replacements. That practice continues to this day, with Russell Brand being the latest example of being de-monetized by YouTube.

In light of vaccine injuries and deaths, and the staggering profits that vaccines have delivered to the pharmaceutical industry, the number of people who believe the mainstream media, the government, and in the vaccines, is much smaller today than three years ago.

Conspiracy theory narratives have become conspiracy facts.

The Endgame of Fear

So, what’s the endgame of promoting and enforcing a climate of fear throughout society?

It’s simple. Fearful people are far more compliant and, therefore, are easily controlled, pacified, monitored, and dehumanized. Next thing you know, we’ll all be eating bugs and liking it.

The antidote to fear, of course, is freedom and access to real and contrary information so that each person can make up his or her own mind. The encouragement, enablement, and empowerment of private individuals to exercise informed judgment about their health and their livelihoods are also part of the solution. A vibrant, thinking, and active society of informed individuals isn't nearly as vulnerable to the polarizing climate of fear our elites are foisting upon us.

In short, to live in fear is to live in bondage.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/30/2023 - 20:50

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COVID-19 Vaccine Found In The Hearts Of Dead People: Study

COVID-19 Vaccine Found In The Hearts Of Dead People: Study

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours)

COVID-19 vaccine…



COVID-19 Vaccine Found In The Hearts Of Dead People: Study

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours)

COVID-19 vaccine was detected in patients who died within a month of vaccination, according to a new study.

COVID-19 vaccines in Massachusetts in a file image. (Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images)

U.S. researchers analyzed tissue samples from the autopsies of 25 people, including 20 who were vaccinated.

Samples from the hearts of three patients, all of whom died within 30 days of a Pfizer shot, tested positive for messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA).

Eight bilateral axillary lymph node samples, from people who died within 30 days of a Moderna or Pfizer vaccine, also tested positive. The companies' shots utilize mRNA.

The research shows "the vaccine can persist for up to 30 days, including in the heart," Dr. James Stone, with the departments of pathology at Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, told The Epoch Times via email.

The study was published by npj Vaccines. Authors declared no conflicts of interest. They said the research was supported by Massachusetts General Hospital, which is in Boston.

In testing of heart and bilateral axillary lymph node tissues from other vaccinated people who died, no vaccine was detected.

Additionally, no vaccine was detected in the liver, spleen, or mediastinal lymph nodes—vaccine was detected in the liver and spleen in preclinical rodent studies before—nor was any detected in tissues from the unvaccinated patients.

The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are known to cause myocarditis, a form of heart inflammation that can result in death.

The people who had mRNA detected in the heart did not have myocarditis, though they did have detectable heart injuries, researchers found.

The researchers said they believed the heart injuries stemmed from underlying diseases and not the vaccines.

"There is no indication as yet that the vaccine in the heart is causing any problems in these patients; neither the causes of death nor the causes of the myocardial injury were linked to the vaccines in that study," said Dr. Stone, one of the authors of the paper.

A health care worker prepares a dose Pfizer/BioNTEch COVID-19 vaccine at The Michener Institute, in Toronto, Canada, on Dec.14, 2020. (Carlos Osorio/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

That position was challenged by Dr. Clare Craig, a British pathologist who reviewed the research.

"The vaccine should not have been there. There was evidence of heart damage. Those three people are now dead," Dr. Craig told The Epoch Times in a message.

She said the researchers were setting too high of a bar for causality.

"At postmortem if there is significant narrowing of the coronary arteries then heart damage is attributed to it on the balance of probabilities. Here this is a clear cut association, an unusual picture of myocardial injury, and a failure to call it out for what it is," Dr. Craig said.

More on Research

The tissues were collected from autopsies performed between January 2021 and February 2022 at the Massachusetts General Hospital. Researchers excluded tissues from some dead people, including from patients who had no clear history of vaccination or non-vaccination and those who had a documented prior COVID-19 infection.

The researchers wanted to test the tissue for vaccine in light of research that has found both spike protein and mRNA persisting in axillary lymph nodes and blood for weeks or even months after vaccination. The testing would help "gain a better understanding of the biodistribution and persistence of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines," they said. SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes COVID-19.

Researchers ended up with tissues from 20 vaccinated patients, including six who received one dose, 12 who received two doses, and two who received three doses. They also formed a control group of five unvaccinated patients.

Six bilateral axillary lymph node samples were available for people vaccinated with Moderna's shot. Two tested positive for the vaccine. Thirteen were available for people vaccinated with Pfizer's shot. Six tested positive for the vaccine.

Overall, of the 11 bilateral axillary lymph node samples from patients who died within 30 days of a shot, eight tested positive. None of the samples from patients who died beyond 30 days of vaccination tested positive.

Researchers also examined samples from each of the vaccinated people from the cardiac left ventricle and cardiac right ventricle. Of those, four samples tested positive across three patients. These were the three who received Pfizer's shot within 30 days of dying. The samples also tested negative for COVID-19.

Vaccine was not detected in any of the unvaccinated people.

The vaccinated patients were on average older, with a mean age of 64 compared to 57. A higher percentage—55 percent to 20 percent—had recent heart injury.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/29/2023 - 18:20

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T2 Biosystems (NASDAQ: TTOO) Breaks Ground: FDA Clearance, Market Trends, and Healthcare Impact

Shares of T2 Biosystems (NASDAQ:TTOO) are soaring up over 20% today on the heels of receiving a 510(k) clearance for its T2Biothreat from the FDA. This…



Shares of T2 Biosystems (NASDAQ:TTOO) are soaring up over 20% today on the heels of receiving a 510(k) clearance for its T2Biothreat from the FDA. This unique test directly detects six biothreat pathogens from a blood sample.

Spotting Biothreats Faster:

T2Biothreat Panel is a game-changer, being the first and only FDA-approved product that can spot these critical biothreat pathogens simultaneously. T2 Biosystems proudly stands as the first U.S. company to achieve this milestone, reshaping the field of biothreat detection.

Big Investor Sells:

Interestingly while celebrating this achievement, a significant investor, CR Group (CRG), decided to sell off a substantial chunk of shares. This sell-off, totaling 24.81 million shares, took place between Sept. 20 and Sept. 26. The timing of this sell-off alongside the FDA clearance raises some eyebrows.

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New CDC Guidelines:

Regardless of CR Group selling, there still appears to be a massive opportunity according to many retail investors. Following new CDC guidelines, the U.S. government now mandates that all hospitals in the country must adopt rapid testing protocols to combat the sepsis pandemic by 2026, or risk losing Medicare funding.

Buying opportunity of the year!!! Update
byu/den1183 inTTOOstock

T2 Biosystems stands as the exclusive FDA-cleared product capable of achieving 100% accurate sepsis detection within 3 to 5 hours. Anticipating widespread adoption of T2 instruments in hospitals, the CEO foresees significant revenue generation, potentially reaching $1.3 billion annually, given the mandate.

This development drastically alters the landscape, potentially influencing the stock’s trajectory positively. With the ongoing surge in manufacturing hires and likely acceleration in orders, coupled with potential government contracts or international sales, many beleive T2 Biosystems presents an undervalued opportunity for investors.

What Borrowing Costs Tell Us:

Another interesting indicator to look at is the cost to borrow (CTB) fee. In terms of TTOO’s case, the stock has seen a massive surge in CTB fees, indicating a high demand from short sellers. When compared to the average CTB fee for other stocks, it’s pretty drastic. While this is typically not a very positive sign, retail investors seem to be buzzing with interest, given there also could be a potential short squeeze if enough buying comes in to trap the shorts.

Better News for Patients:

But let’s not forget the real impact and that’s what TTOO can do for patients. @ChengKeki a user from Twitter also shared an article about Butler Memorial Hospital and their approach to Sepsis. The hospital came up with a 2 step approach to expedite patient care.  They’re utilizing the Beckman Coulter automation line to identify changes in a person’s blood cells that might indicate the development of sepsis. Which apparently has only been used in Europe and they’re the first in the US with the technology. Then shortly after, they use T2 Biosystems panels that as you know, quicken the process from 36 hours, to just 3-5 hours.

Catching sepsis quickly is crucial because it’s a life-threatening condition that rapidly progresses throughout your body and can lead to death if not promptly diagnosed and treated. Sepsis occurs when the body responds improperly to an infection, causing widespread inflammation and potentially damages multiple organ systems. Early detection allows for immediate medical intervention.


T2 Biosystems is hitting major milestones, not only in the market but in improving critical healthcare processes. The company is also a major hit with retail investors and continues to trade an astronomical amount of shares daily, the current average is ~115M shares. The FDA approval and its implications, along with the positive shift in sepsis diagnosis, showcase T2 Biosystems’ growing role in healthcare. Keep an eye on how this progresses—it’s exciting for both investors and patients alike.

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Picture by jarmoluk from Pixabay


The post T2 Biosystems (NASDAQ: TTOO) Breaks Ground: FDA Clearance, Market Trends, and Healthcare Impact first appeared on Micro Cap Daily.

The post T2 Biosystems (NASDAQ: TTOO) Breaks Ground: FDA Clearance, Market Trends, and Healthcare Impact appeared first on Micro Cap Daily.

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