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Cruise Tourism Market size is estimated to grow by USD 4.24 billion; A descriptive analysis of five forces model, market dynamics, and segmentation- Technavio

Cruise Tourism Market size is estimated to grow by USD 4.24 billion; A descriptive analysis of five forces model, market dynamics, and segmentation- Technavio
PR Newswire
NEW YORK, Feb. 8, 2023

NEW YORK, Feb. 8, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — According to Te…

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1 year ago

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Cruise Tourism Market size is estimated to grow by USD 4.24 billion; A descriptive analysis of five forces model, market dynamics, and segmentation- Technavio

PR Newswire

NEW YORK, Feb. 8, 2023

NEW YORK, Feb. 8, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- According to Technavio, the global cruise tourism market size is estimated to grow by USD 4.24 billion from 2021 to 2026. However, the growth momentum will decelerate at a CAGR of 11.97% during the forecast period. North America will account for the largest share of the global market during the forecast period. 

For more Insights on market size Request a sample report

Cruise tourism market - Five Forces
The global cloud data warehouse market is fragmented, and the five forces analysis covers– 

  • Bargaining power of buyers 
  • The threat of new entrants
  • Threat of rivalry
  • Bargaining power of suppliers
  • Threat of substitutes
  • Interpretation of porter's five models helps to strategize the business, for entire details – buy the report!

Cruise tourism market – Customer Landscape 

The report includes the market's adoption lifecycle, from the innovator's stage to the laggard's stage. It focuses on adoption rates in different regions based on penetration. Furthermore, the report also includes key purchase criteria and drivers of price sensitivity to help companies evaluate and develop their growth strategies.

Cruise tourism market - Segmentation Assessment
Segment Overview
Technavio has segmented the market based on type, Application (Ocean cruising and River cruising).

  • The Ocean cruising segment will account for a significant share of the global market during the forecast period. Factors such as the passenger ticket include a variety of accommodations, amenities, meals, entertainment, round trips, service charges, complimentary beverages, free internet connectivity, pre-cruise packages, shore excursions, and others. Such facilities will support the market growth through this segment during the forecast period.

Geography Overview
By geography, the global cruise tourism market is segmented into North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Middle East and Africa. The report provides actionable insights and estimates the contribution of all regions to the growth of the global cruise tourism market.

  • North America is estimated to account for 44% of the growth of the global market during the forecast period. The rapid increase in the passenger flow in countries such as the US will facilitate the cruise tourism market growth in North America over the forecast period. Owing to the positive growth of the market, market vendors are expanding their onboard services, facilities, and amenities to differentiate their services from their competitors. Such factors will increase the market growth during the forecast period.

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Cruise tourism market – Market Dynamics
Key factor driving market growth

  • One of the key factors driving the global cruise tourism market growth is the strong global economic recovery and an increasing number of high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) in developed and developing economies.
  • The growth is driven by an increase in domestic consumption and trade, and an uptick in investments, since the global economic recession in 2008. Thus, there has been a gradual increase in the preference for luxury lifestyles and spending over leisure travel.
  • Moreover, the increase in the number of working women has further contributed to the increased income levels of individuals and their families. Such factors are expected to support market growth during the forecast period. 

Leading trends influencing the market 

  • Growing consumer adoption of repositioning cruising, owing to tourers' inclination toward exploring different destinations by availing best cruise deals, is one of the key cruise tourism market trends that is expected to impact the industry positively in the forecast period. 
  • Repositioning cruising refers to moving the ship from one sailing destination to another. The growth is attributed to the availability of cost-effective one-way flights, the inclusion of exotic itineraries, and cost advantages associated with repositioning cruising compared with regular.
  • Thus, a substantial increase in the number of repositioning cruises is estimated to propel the growth of the market in focus during the forecast years.

Major challenges hindering market growth

  • One of the key challenges to the global cruise tourism market growth is the rising environmental concerns, as these ships generate a substantial amount of waste on a daily basis. 
  • This is due to the presence of many passengers and crew members. For instance, an average one-week cruise voyage with 2000 to 2500 passengers along with crew members would generate around 2,00,000 plus gallons of sewage stream that includes oily bilge water, greywater, and hazardous waste.
  • In addition, it will also generate over six tons of solid waste and an enormous amount of air pollutants which can significantly affect marine pollution globally. Such factors are projected to hamper the growth of the current market during the forecast period.

Drivers, trends, and challenges have an impact on market dynamics, which can impact businesses. Find more insights in a sample report!

What are the key data covered in this cruise tourism market report?

  • CAGR of the market during the forecast period
  • Detailed information on factors that will drive the growth of the cruise tourism market between 2022 and 2026
  • Precise estimation of the size of the cruise tourism market size and its contribution to the market in focus on the parent market
  • Accurate predictions about upcoming trends and changes in consumer behavior
  • Growth of the cruise tourism market industry across North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Middle East and Africa
  • A thorough analysis of the market's competitive landscape and detailed information about vendors
  • Comprehensive analysis of factors that will challenge the growth of cruise tourism market vendors

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  • The size of the tourism and hotel market in Indonesia is expected to increase by USD 21.93 billion from 2021 to 2026, and the market's growth momentum will accelerate at a CAGR of 11.81%. This report extensively covers market segmentation by type of tourists (domestic and international) and hotel type (chain hotels and independent hotels).

Cruise Tourism Market Scope

Report Coverage

Details

Page number

137

Base year

2021

Forecast period

2022-2026

Growth momentum & CAGR

Decelerate at a CAGR of 11.97%

Market growth 2022-2026

USD 4.24 billion

Market structure

Fragmented

YoY growth 2022-2023 (%)

39.42

Regional analysis

North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Middle East and Africa

Performing market contribution

North America at 44%

Key countries

US, China, Australia, Germany, and UK

Competitive landscape

Leading Vendors, Market Positioning of Vendors, Competitive Strategies, and Industry Risks

Key companies profiled

AmaWaterways LLC, Ambassador Cruise Holidays Ltd., American Cruise Lines, Carnival Corp. and Plc, Compagnie du Ponant, Cosmos Tours Ltd., Genting Hong Kong Ltd., Kerala Shipping and Inland Navigation Corp. Ltd., LaVista Travel, MSC Mediterranean Shipping Co. SA, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd., Ocean World Ltd., Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd., Saga Group Ltd, The Walt Disney Co., TUI AG, Viking River Cruises Inc., and Virgin Cruises Intermediate Ltd.

Market dynamics

Parent market analysis, Market growth inducers and obstacles, Fast-growing and slow-growing segment analysis, COVID-19 impact and recovery analysis and future consumer dynamics, Market condition analysis for the forecast period

Customization purview

If our report has not included the data that you are looking for, you can reach out to our analysts and get segments customized.

Table of contents

1 Executive Summary

  • 1.1 Market overview
    • Exhibit 01: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Overview
    • Exhibit 02: Executive Summary – Data Table on Market Overview
    • Exhibit 03: Executive Summary – Chart on Global Market Characteristics
    • Exhibit 04: Executive Summary – Chart on Market by Geography
    • Exhibit 05: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Segmentation by Product Type
    • Exhibit 06: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Segmentation by Application
    • Exhibit 07: Executive Summary – Chart on Incremental Growth
    • Exhibit 08: Executive Summary – Data Table on Incremental Growth
    • Exhibit 09: Executive Summary – Chart on Vendor Market Positioning

2 Market Landscape

  • 2.1 Market ecosystem
    • Exhibit 10: Parent market
    • Exhibit 11: Market Characteristics

3 Market Sizing

  • 3.1 Market definition
    • Exhibit 12: Offerings of vendors included in the market definition
  • 3.2 Market segment analysis 
    • Exhibit 13: Market segments
  • 3.3 Market size 2021
  • 3.4 Market outlook: Forecast for 2021-2026 
    • Exhibit 14: Chart on Global - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 15: Data Table on Global - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 16: Chart on Global Market: Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
    • Exhibit 17: Data Table on Global Market: Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)

4 Five Forces Analysis

  • 4.1 Five forces summary
    • Exhibit 18: Five forces analysis - Comparison between2021 and 2026
  • 4.2 Bargaining power of buyers 
    • Exhibit 19: Chart on Bargaining power of buyers – Impact of key factors 2021 and 2026
  • 4.3 Bargaining power of suppliers 
    • Exhibit 20: Bargaining power of suppliers – Impact of key factors in 2021 and 2026
  • 4.4 Threat of new entrants 
    • Exhibit 21: Threat of new entrants – Impact of key factors in 2021 and 2026
  • 4.5 Threat of substitutes 
    • Exhibit 22: Threat of substitutes – Impact of key factors in 2021 and 2026
  • 4.6 Threat of rivalry
    • Exhibit 23: Threat of rivalry – Impact of key factors in 2021 and 2026
  • 4.7 Market condition
    • Exhibit 24: Chart on Market condition - Five forces 2021 and 2026

5 Market Segmentation by Product Type

  • 5.1 Market segments
    • Exhibit 25: Chart on Product Type - Market share 2021-2026 (%)
    • Exhibit 26: Data Table on Product Type - Market share 2021-2026 (%)
  • 5.2 Comparison by Product Type 
    • Exhibit 27: Chart on Comparison by Product Type
    • Exhibit 28: Data Table on Comparison by Product Type
  • 5.3 Passenger ticket - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 
    • Exhibit 29: Chart on Passenger ticket - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 30: Data Table on Passenger ticket - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 31: Chart on Passenger ticket - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
    • Exhibit 32: Data Table on Passenger ticket - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
  • 5.4 Onboard facilities - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 
    • Exhibit 33: Chart on Onboard facilities - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 34: Data Table on Onboard facilities - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 35: Chart on Onboard facilities - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
    • Exhibit 36: Data Table on Onboard facilities - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
  • 5.5 Market opportunity by Product Type 
    • Exhibit 37: Market opportunity by Product Type ($ million)

6 Market Segmentation by Application

  • 6.1 Market segments
    • Exhibit 38: Chart on Application - Market share 2021-2026 (%)
    • Exhibit 39: Data Table on Application - Market share 2021-2026 (%)
  • 6.2 Comparison by Application 
    • Exhibit 40: Chart on Comparison by Application
    • Exhibit 41: Data Table on Comparison by Application
  • 6.3 Ocean cruising - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 
    • Exhibit 42: Chart on Ocean cruising - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 43: Data Table on Ocean cruising - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 44: Chart on Ocean cruising - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
    • Exhibit 45: Data Table on Ocean cruising - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
  • 6.4 River cruising - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 
    • Exhibit 46: Chart on River cruising - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 47: Data Table on River cruising - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 48: Chart on River cruising - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
    • Exhibit 49: Data Table on River cruising - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
  • 6.5 Market opportunity by Application 
    • Exhibit 50: Market opportunity by Application ($ million)

7 Customer Landscape

  • 7.1 Customer landscape overview 
    • Exhibit 51: Analysis of price sensitivity, lifecycle, customer purchase basket, adoption rates, and purchase criteria

8 Geographic Landscape

  • 8.1 Geographic segmentation 
    • Exhibit 52: Chart on Market share by geography 2021-2026 (%)
    • Exhibit 53: Data Table on Market share by geography 2021-2026 (%)
  • 8.2 Geographic comparison 
    • Exhibit 54: Chart on Geographic comparison
    • Exhibit 55: Data Table on Geographic comparison
  • 8.3 North America - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 
    • Exhibit 56: Chart on North America - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 57: Data Table on North America - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 58: Chart on North America - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
    • Exhibit 59: Data Table on North America - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
  • 8.4 Europe - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 
    • Exhibit 60: Chart on Europe - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 61: Data Table on Europe - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 62: Chart on Europe - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
    • Exhibit 63: Data Table on Europe - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
  • 8.5 APAC - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 
    • Exhibit 64: Chart on APAC - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 65: Data Table on APAC - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 66: Chart on APAC - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
    • Exhibit 67: Data Table on APAC - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
  • 8.6 South America - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 
    • Exhibit 68: Chart on South America - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 69: Data Table on South America - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 70: Chart on South America - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
    • Exhibit 71: Data Table on South America - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
  • 8.7 Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 
    • Exhibit 72: Chart on Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 73: Data Table on Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 74: Chart on Middle East and Africa - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
    • Exhibit 75: Data Table on Middle East and Africa - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
  • 8.8 US - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 
    • Exhibit 76: Chart on US - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 77: Data Table on US - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 78: Chart on US - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
    • Exhibit 79: Data Table on US - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
  • 8.9 China - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 
    • Exhibit 80: Chart on China - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 81: Data Table on China - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 82: Chart on China - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
    • Exhibit 83: Data Table on China - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
  • 8.10 Germany - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 
    • Exhibit 84: Chart on Germany - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 85: Data Table on Germany - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 86: Chart on Germany - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
    • Exhibit 87: Data Table on Germany - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
  • 8.11 UK - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 
    • Exhibit 88: Chart on UK - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 89: Data Table on UK - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 90: Chart on UK - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
    • Exhibit 91: Data Table on UK - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
  • 8.12 Market opportunity by geography 
    • Exhibit 92: Market opportunity by geography ($ million)

9 Drivers, Challenges, and Trends

  • 9.1 Market drivers
  • 9.2 Market challenges
  • 9.3 Impact of drivers and challenges 
    • Exhibit 93: Impact of drivers and challenges in 2021 and 2026
  • 9.4 Market trends

10 Vendor Landscape

  • 10.1 Overview
  • 10.2 Vendor landscape
    • Exhibit 94: Overview on Criticality of inputs and Factors of differentiation
  • 10.3 Landscape disruption
    • Exhibit 95: Overview on factors of disruption
  • 10.4 Industry risks
    • Exhibit 96: Impact of key risks on business

11 Vendor Analysis

  • 11.1 Vendors covered
    • Exhibit 97: Vendors covered
  • 11.2 Market positioning of vendors 
    • Exhibit 98: Matrix on vendor position and classification
  • 11.3 AmaWaterways LLC
    • Exhibit 99: AmaWaterways LLC - Overview
    • Exhibit 100: AmaWaterways LLC - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 101: AmaWaterways LLC - Key offerings
  • 11.4 Ambassador Cruise Holidays Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 102: Ambassador Cruise Holidays Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 103: Ambassador Cruise Holidays Ltd. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 104: Ambassador Cruise Holidays Ltd. - Key offerings
  • 11.5 American Cruise Lines 
    • Exhibit 105: American Cruise Lines - Overview
    • Exhibit 106: American Cruise Lines - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 107: American Cruise Lines - Key offerings
  • 11.6 Carnival Corp. and Plc 
    • Exhibit 108: Carnival Corp. and Plc - Overview
    • Exhibit 109: Carnival Corp. and Plc - Business segments
    • Exhibit 110: Carnival Corp. and Plc - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 111: Carnival Corp. and Plc - Segment focus
  • 11.7 MSC Mediterranean Shipping Co. SA 
    • Exhibit 112: MSC Mediterranean Shipping Co. SA - Overview
    • Exhibit 113: MSC Mediterranean Shipping Co. SA - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 114: MSC Mediterranean Shipping Co. SA - Key news
    • Exhibit 115: MSC Mediterranean Shipping Co. SA - Key offerings
  • 11.8 Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 116: Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 117: Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 118: Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. - Key offerings
  • 11.9 Ocean World Ltd.
    • Exhibit 119: Ocean World Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 120: Ocean World Ltd. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 121: Ocean World Ltd. - Key offerings
  • 11.10 Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 122: Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 123: Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 124: Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. - Key offerings
  • 11.11 Saga Group Ltd
    • Exhibit 125: Saga Group Ltd - Overview
    • Exhibit 126: Saga Group Ltd - Business segments
    • Exhibit 127: Saga Group Ltd - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 128: Saga Group Ltd - Segment focus
  • 11.12 The Walt Disney Co.
    • Exhibit 129: The Walt Disney Co. - Overview
    • Exhibit 130: The Walt Disney Co. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 131: The Walt Disney Co. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 132: The Walt Disney Co. - Segment focus

12 Appendix

  • 12.1 Scope of the report
  • 12.2 Inclusions and exclusions checklist 
    • Exhibit 133: Inclusions checklist
    • Exhibit 134: Exclusions checklist
  • 12.3 Currency conversion rates for US$ 
    • Exhibit 135: Currency conversion rates for US$
  • 12.4 Research methodology
    • Exhibit 136: Research methodology
    • Exhibit 137: Validation techniques employed for market sizing
    • Exhibit 138: Information sources
  • 12.5 List of abbreviations 
    • Exhibit 139: List of abbreviations

About Us
Technavio is a leading global technology research and advisory company. Their research and analysis focuses on emerging market trends and provides actionable insights to help businesses identify market opportunities and develop effective strategies to optimize their market positions. With over 500 specialized analysts, Technavio's report library consists of more than 17,000 reports and counting, covering 800 technologies, spanning across 50 countries. Their client base consists of enterprises of all sizes, including more than 100 Fortune 500 companies. This growing client base relies on Technavio's comprehensive coverage, extensive research, and actionable market insights to identify opportunities in existing and potential markets and assess their competitive positions within changing market scenarios.

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

Published

11 hours ago

on

March 9, 2024

By

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

Published

1 day ago

on

March 8, 2024

By

Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…

Published

1 day ago

on

March 8, 2024

By

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

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