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Could investing in the video games sector be a recession-resistant play that reaps rewards?

It’s no secret that the video games sector has been growing quickly in value for a number of years now. There are a number of factors behind the growth….

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It’s no secret that the video games sector has been growing quickly in value for a number of years now. There are a number of factors behind the growth. The statistics company Statista forecasts the international value of the video games sector to grow from an estimated $208.52 billion this year to $304.64 billion by 2027. That’s total growth of 46% and represents a forecast average CAGR of over 9% over the next five years.

revenue growth chart

Source: Statista

The various business models in the video gaming sector

There are different ways to take on investment exposure to the video gaming sector as not all companies in the space make their money the same way.

The most obvious is an investment in the biggest games publishers such as:

  • Activision Blizzard (currently in the process of being acquired by Microsoft subject to regulatory approval).
  • Bandai Namco (the Japanese games publisher behind titles including Super Smash Bros).
  • Electron Arts (titles include the popular FIFA franchise, Battlefield, The Sims and Star Wars franchise)
  • Take-Two Interactive (titles include Grand Theft Auto, Red Dead Redemption, Borderlands).
  • Tencent (Chinese gaming and technology giant, titles include PUBG Mobile, Honor of Kings, League of Legends).

There are also hundreds of smaller games publishers, including Team17, the AIM-listed publisher behind Worms. However, while the spate of acquisitions in the industry could see an investment in a smaller publisher pay off if it’s bought up by one of the bigger fish, the chances are it would be a hit-or-miss approach. The lion’s share of the money in video games publishing is also gobbled up by larger publishers.

Research conducted by Joost van Dreunen of the New York University Stern School of Business found that the top ten titles in each video gaming genre (eg. Battle Royale shoot-em-ups, strategy games, sports simulators etc.) accounted for around 90% of revenues generated. FIFA 18, for example, made $723 million, which represented 28% of consumer spending on sports games. The $190 million generated by Super Smash Bros was 57% of the income made by the top-ten titles in the fighting genre.

As an investor with a mid to low risk profile, that means the bigger games publishers with a history of generating steady, growing revenues year-on-year is probably the pool you want to fish in. Developing video games is a capital-intensive process and there is a gap between putting the money in and realising a return on investment.

That means smaller games developers and publishers with fewer titles can often have revenue boom and bust cycles that coincide with the release and tapering off in popularity of successful games. These cashflow cycles are smoother for larger companies that own several successful titles or franchises due to more regular releases and the spread of capital risk between them.

There are other companies like Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo that make money from the video gaming sector in a more diverse and diluted way but on a bigger scale. These 3 companies also produce the gaming console hardware, the Xbox, PlayStation and Switch respectively, that games are played on.

They sell the actual consoles, specialist computers designed specifically for gaming, at a loss and make their profits by taking a cut from all the games that run on them sold. They are also all publishers themselves with Microsoft owning titles and franchises including Minecraft, Halo and Gears of War among others. Sony’s stable of titles includes the Spiderman games franchise, the Grand Turismo franchise and The Last of Us and Nintendo’s Super Mario Bros, Pokemon, DonkeyKong and The Legend of Zelda.

Microsoft has publically stated it sees the future as console-free with games streamed to any device and the computing capacity needed taking place in the cloud and a subscription business model comparable to Netflix. That belief is behind the tech giant’s move to buy Activision Blizzard and also why it is having a hard time convincing regulators to allow it to.

Other companies provide products and services to the gaming industry such as game engines that developers use to create the 3D worlds their games are set in. The Unreal Engine developed and owned by Epic Games, which is in turn owned by Tencent, is one of the most popular, as is the Unity engine owned by NYSE-listed Unity Software.

Dublin-based and AIM-listed Keywords Studios provides services such as localisation, QA testing and marketing to 23 of the top 25 games publishers by revenue and all of the top-ten mobile games publishers.

How recession-resistant is the video games sector?

How resistant a sector is expected to prove to an inflationary environment and now expected global recession is a factor investors should consider when diversifying a portfolio in any new direction.

Of course, there is an argument that investors with a long term investment horizon do not have to concern themselves too deeply with short term economic conditions if convinced about the overall value proposition of an asset. However, there is also a convincing case to hold off on taking positions in assets that could have a challenging year or two ahead while consumer spending is constrained.

Studies have shown that returns have historically been better when a stock is acquired within 6 months of a new bull market starting compared to buying it during a bear market. That means there needn’t be any rush for investors to “buy the dip”.

This also means that there is a case to focus investments made during a bear market on assets that will perform well amid the storm. Do video game stocks fall into that category? Opinions are mixed despite the fact the sector faired very well during the last recession in 2008. While banks were being rescued by huge government bailouts or collapsing alongside the housing market, computer games and consoles were going strong.

However, there are a number of new factors at the onset of the recession that is expected to grip most developed economies in the coming months that lead some analysts to believe the videogaming sector will not get off as lightly this time.

Consumers typically cut back their discretionary spending during a recession and video games are not immune to that. However, the hours of entertainment that a video game can provide over many months often means the £40 to £70 a popular game for a PC or console typically costs means they tend to be seen as very good value. That’s a strong selling point when consumers are carefully monitoring their discretionary spending.

But the video games sector far from relies on the sale of games alone for its revenues and profits. Microtransactions now form a big part of revenues, or all of them in the case of free-to-play games like the hugely popular Fortnite and are likely to take a hit during a recession. The most expensive games have also risen in cost over the past few years and their price elasticity will be put to the test.

Some kinds of hardware, like VR headsets, have also risen in price as components have, which may put off buyers sticking to a tight budget. In August, Meta, formerly known as Facebook, raised the price of its Quest 2 VR headset, from $299 to $399.

Another factor is that after a couple of boom years during the pandemic, video game sales showed their first contraction during the last quarter. The end of two years of pandemic restrictions has heightened the appetite for outdoors and social forms of entertainment to the detriment of time spent at home playing video games.

We also have unusually high levels of employment as we head into the forecast recession. That could mean more consumers still be able to afford forms of entertainment that involve leaving their homes and be inclined to take advantage after the pandemic, even as belts are tightened.

There are signs video games companies are tightening their belts too in preparation for a potentially more fallow period. Pokemon Go creator Niantic has laid off some staff, as has the games engine Unity while Ubisoft confirmed the cancellation of 4 new games during its July earnings call citing a “changing financial environment”.

Chris Kramer, Tencent Games’ head of North American communications recently commented for the Washington Post:

“Budgets are going to become tighter with every company across the board, which means it will be tougher to get new projects approved unless they have a rock-solid chance of being successful. Publishing efforts will be scaled back as budgets shrink, so game companies will have to do more with less and really examine where the best return on investment is on dollars spent.”

Serkan Toto, chief executive officer of Tokyo-based games consultancy Kantan Games Inc., is “in the camp that the industry is recession-proof indeed, at least to some extent.”

Commenting for Bloomberg in late July, he says he can’t remember a recession in the last four decades that had a significant impact on the games industry. In fact, he points out, during the Great Recession of 2007-2009, Activision merged with Vivendi Games as part of a $18.9 billion deal–and picked up World of Warcraft publisher Blizzard in the process.

What’s the secret to the gaming industry’s history of riding out recessions healthily? Toto believes it’s because playing games is a relatively inexpensive hobby compared to other entertainment options and that the evidence shows that people who lose their jobs still consume plenty of entertainment products.

Where to invest for video gaming exposure?

If you are confident the video gaming sector will weather the expected recession well, which companies look like the best investments? Unless you are willing to take on a significant amount of risk, the industry’s bigger players would look the safest bets.

Analysts for CFRE Research, pick out these 7 video gaming stocks as ones for investors to consider:

Nvidia: the chipmaker produces the high-end graphics cards required for the most advanced video games and also operates a data centre business considered to hold great growth potential. The analysts have a price target of $350 for the stock and it currently trades at just $137.14.

Advanced Micro Devices: Advanced Micro Devices is a semiconductor producer and one of the world’s largest suppliers of PC microprocessors and GPUs. The CFRE analysts have a price target of $120 for a stock trading at $79.61.

NetEase: NetEase is a Chinese tech stock that specializes in PC and mobile gaming, which accounts for more than 70% of its revenue. It’s valuation has been hit by the crackdown on mobile gaming by the Chinese authorities by CFRE rates it as a buy with a $110 price target against a current trading price of $87.22.

Electronic Arts: Electronic Arts is one of the world’s largest independent video game publishers and owner of key franchises such as Madden, FIFA and Battlefield. The company’s fiscal fourth-quarter numbers were particularly impressive given the recent “spending lull” for video games. The analysts have a price target of $184 and the stock currently trades at $125.55.

Sea Ltd: a Singapore-based consumer internet company, Sea’s subsidiaries include its Shopee e-commerce platform, its Garena digital entertainment business and its SeaMoney financial technology operations. There was impressive revenue growth in the first quarter, including 45% growth for Garena, 64% growth for Shopee and 360% growth for SeaMoney. The company’s game Free Fire was the most downloaded mobile game in the world in the first quarter and 43% revenue growth has been predicted by analysts for 2022. CFRA has a buy rating and $160 price target for SE stock, which is currently valued at $58.83.

Roblox Corp: Roblox is an online entertainment platform that allows creators to develop games. It is also a video game that has 54.1 million daily active users, its own digital currency and a range of unique virtual experiences. CFRA analysts are convinced daily active user growth, improving demographic trends, 5G network upgrades and growing interest in coding will help Roblox maintain at least 20% annual revenue growth in the long term. Digital training, education and fitness are seen as potential new growth areas.

CFRA rates the stock a “strong buy” and has a $56 price target against a current trading price of $39.94.

Take-Two Interactive: Take-Two Interactive Software is the publisher and owner of popular video game franchises including Grand Theft Auto, Red Dead Redemption and Borderlands. The company also has what looks like a strong pipeline of new content, and its stock has an attractive valuation. Currently trading at $120.58 and CFRA has a price target for it of $171.

The post Could investing in the video games sector be a recession-resistant play that reaps rewards? first appeared on Trading and Investment News.

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Decrease in Japanese children’s ability to balance during movement related to COVID-19 activity restrictions

A team of researchers from Nagoya University in central Japan investigated how restrictions on children’s activities during the COVID-19 pandemic affected…

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A team of researchers from Nagoya University in central Japan investigated how restrictions on children’s activities during the COVID-19 pandemic affected their life habits and their abilities to perform physical activities. By comparing medical examination data before and after the onset of the pandemic, they found that physical functions among adolescents deteriorated, including their dynamic balance. They also found that the children had higher body fat levels and worse life habits. Rather than a lack of exercise time, this may have been because of a lack of quality exercise due to activity restrictions.  

Credit: Credit must be given when image is used

A team of researchers from Nagoya University in central Japan investigated how restrictions on children’s activities during the COVID-19 pandemic affected their life habits and their abilities to perform physical activities. By comparing medical examination data before and after the onset of the pandemic, they found that physical functions among adolescents deteriorated, including their dynamic balance. They also found that the children had higher body fat levels and worse life habits. Rather than a lack of exercise time, this may have been because of a lack of quality exercise due to activity restrictions.  

During the COVID-19 pandemic, in Japan, as in other countries, schools and sports clubs tried to prevent the spread of infection by reducing physical education and restricting outdoor physical activities, club activities, and sports. However, children who are denied opportunities for physical activity with social elements may develop bad habits. During the pandemic, children, like adults, increased the time they spent looking at television, smartphone, and computer screens, exercised less, and slept less. Such changes in lifestyle can harm adolescent bodies, leading to weight gain and health problems. 

Visiting Researcher Tadashi Ito and Professor Hideshi Sugiura from the Department of Biological Functional Science at the Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, together with Dr. Yuji Ito from the Department of Pediatrics at Nagoya University Hospital, and  Dr. Nobuhiko Ochi and Dr. Koji Noritake from Aichi Prefectural Mikawa Aoitori Medical and Rehabilitation Center for Developmental Disabilities, conducted a study of Japanese children and students in elementary and junior high schools, aged 9-15, by analyzing data from physical examinations before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. They evaluated the children’s muscle strength, dynamic balance functions, walking speed, body fat percentage, screen time, sleep time, quality of life, and physical activity time.  

The researchers found that after the onset of the pandemic, children were more likely to have decreased balance ability when moving, larger body fat percentage, report spending more time looking at TV, computers or smartphones, and sleep less. Since there were no changes in the time spent on physical activity or the number of meals eaten, Sugiura and his colleagues suggest that the worsening of physical functions was related to the quality of exercise of the children. The researchers reported their findings in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.  

“Since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus in Japan after April 2020, children have not been able to engage in sufficient physical education, sports activities, and outdoor play at school. It became clear that balance ability during movement was easily affected, lifestyle habits were disrupted, and the percentage of body fat was likely to increase,” explained Ito. “This may have been because of shorter outdoor playtime and club activities, which impeded children’s ability to learn the motor skills necessary to balance during movement.” 

“Limitations on children’s opportunities for physical activity because of the outbreak of the novel coronavirus have had a significant impact on the development of physical function and lifestyle and may cause physical deterioration and health problems in the future,” warned Ito. “Especially, the risk of injury to children may increase because of a reduced dynamic balance function.” 

The results suggest that even after the novel coronavirus becomes endemic, it is important to consider the effects of social restrictions on the body composition of adolescents. Since physical activities with a social element may be important for health, authorities should prioritize preventing the reduction of children’s physical inactivity and actively encourage them to play outdoors and exercise. The group has some recommendations for families worried about the effects of school closings and other coronavirus measures on their children. “It is important for children to practice dynamic balance ability, maintaining balance to avoid falling over while performing movements,” Ito advised. “To improve balance function in children, it is important to incorporate enhanced content, such as short-term exercise programs specifically designed to improve balance functions.” 


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Contradictions, Lies, And “I Don’t Recalls”: The Fauci Deposition

Contradictions, Lies, And "I Don’t Recalls": The Fauci Deposition

Authored by Techno Fog via The Reactionary,

Today, Missouri Attoney General…

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Contradictions, Lies, And "I Don't Recalls": The Fauci Deposition

Authored by Techno Fog via The Reactionary,

Today, Missouri Attoney General Eric Schmitt released the transcript of the testimony of Dr. Anthony Fauci. As you might recall, Fauci was deposed as part of an ongoing federal lawsuit challenging the Biden Administration’s violations of the First Amendment in targeting and suppressing the speech of Americans who challenged the government’s narrative on COVID-19.

Here is the Fauci deposition transcript.

And here are the highlights…

EcoHealth Alliance - the Peter Daszak group - is knee-deep in the Wuhan controversy, having been funded by the Fauci’s NIH for coronavirus and gain of function research in China (and having worked with the Chinese team in Wuhan). What does Fauci say about EcoHealth Alliance? Over two years after the COVID-19 pandemic began, and after millions dead worldwide, he’s “vaguely familiar” with their work.

In early 2020, Fauci was put on notice that his group - NIAID - had funded EcoHealth alliance on bat coronavirus research for the past five years.

This coincided with early reports - directly to Fauci, from Jeremy Ferrar and Christian Anderson - “of the possibility of there being a manipulation of the virus” based on the fact that “it was an unusual virus.”

Fauci conceded that he was specifically made aware by Anderson that “the unusual features of the virus” make it look “potentially engineered.”

Fauci couldn’t recall why he sent an article discussing gain of function research in China to his deputy, Hugh Auchincloss, telling him it was essential that they speak on the phone. He couldn’t recall speaking with Auchincloss via phone that day. But remarkably, Fauci did remember assigning research tasks to Auchincloss

Fauci was evasive on conversations with Francis Collins about whether NIAID may have funded coronavirus-related research in China, eventually stating “I don’t recall.”

The phrase “I don’t recall” was prominent in Fauci’s deposition. He said it a total of 174 times:

For example, Fauci couldn’t remember what anyone said on a call discussing whether the virus originated in a lab:

During that same call, Fauci couldn’t recall whether anyone expressed concern that the lab leak “might discredit scientific funding projects.” He also couldn’t recall whether there was a discussion about a lab leak distracting from the virus response. Fauci did remember, however, that they agreed there needed to be more time to investigate the virus origins - including the lab leak theory.

What else couldn’t Fauci remember? Whether, early into the pandemic, his confidants raised concerns about social media posts about the origins of COVID-19.

Yet Fauci did admit he was concerned about social media posts blaming China for the pandemic. He even admitted the accidental lab leak “certainly is a possibility,” contradicting his prior claims to National Geographic where he said the virus “could not have been artificially or deliberately manipulated.”

Fauci also couldn’t recall whether he had any conversations with Daszak about the origins of COVID-19 in February 2020, but admitted those conversations might have happened: “I told you before that I did not remember any direct conversations with him about the origin, and I said I very well might have had conversations but I don't specifically remember conversations.” And he couldn’t recall telling the media early on during the pandemic that the virus was consistent with a jump “from an animal to a human.”

Fauci said he was in the dark on social media actions to curb speech and suspend accounts that posted COVID-19 information that didn’t fit the mainstream narrative: “I’m not aware of suppression of speech on social media.” Yet it was Fauci’s proclamations of the truth, whether about the origins of COVID-19 to the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine, that led to social media companies banning discussions of contrary information.

Regarding those removals of content, Fauci had no personal knowledge of a US Government/Social Media effort to curb “misinformation.” But he conceded the possibility numerous times.

Then there’s the issue of masks. In February 2020, Fauci informed an acquaintance that was traveling: “I do not recommend that you wear a mask.” Fauci would later become a vocal proponent of masks only two months later.

I’m near my Substack length limit - posting the excerpts does that - but you can see from Fauci’s testimony that his public statements about COVID-19 origins and the necessity to wear a mask didn’t match his private conversations. This has been known for some time, but it’s finally nice to get him on record.

Again, read it all and subscribe here.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/05/2022 - 21:40

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The Gall Of Lockdowners Who Support China’s Anti-Lockdown Protests

The Gall Of Lockdowners Who Support China’s Anti-Lockdown Protests

Authored by Michael Senger via ‘The New Normal’ Substack,

If the intent…

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The Gall Of Lockdowners Who Support China's Anti-Lockdown Protests

Authored by Michael Senger via 'The New Normal' Substack,

If the intent was to get western elites to simultaneously support totalitarianism in their own countries while pretending to oppose it in China, then Xi Jinping has certainly made his point...

Across the political spectrum, voices have risen up in support of the Chinese people who’ve launched protests of unprecedented scale against the Chinese Communist Party’s indefinite Covid lockdown measures.

As well they should. Even by Chinese standards, the lockdowns that Xi Jinping pioneered with the onset of Covid are horrific in terms of their scale, their duration, their depravity, and the new totalitarian surveillance measures to which they’ve led. Anyone who participates in a protest in China runs a risk of being subject to cruel and arbitrary punishment. For ordinary Chinese people to brave that risk in defiance of this new form of inhuman medical tyranny is an act of courage worthy of admiration.

There are notable exceptions to the otherwise widespread support the protesters have received. Apple has been silent about the protests, and had the gall to limit the protesters’ use of a communication service called AirDrop in compliance with the CCP’s demands, even as it threatens to remove Twitter from its app store over Elon Musk’s free speech policy. This comes even after Apple has long ignored requests by FCC officials to remove the Chinese-owned app TikTok from its app store over unprecedented national security concerns. So Apple complies with requests by the Chinese government, but not the United States government. Let that sink in…

Apple is, unfortunately, far from alone in its CCP apologism. Anthony Fauci told CNN that China’s totalitarian lockdowns would be fully justified so long as the purpose was to “get all the people vaccinated.”

This kind of apologism for the CCP’s grisly bastardization of “public health” is horrific, especially coming from the man most widely seen as the leader of America’s response to Covid.

But what may be even more galling than this apologism is the widespread support China’s anti-lockdown protesters have received even among those who demonized anti-lockdown protesters in their home countries and wished their lockdowns were more like China’s.

In 2020, the New York Times denounced anti-lockdown protesters as “Anti-Vaxxers, Anticapitalists, Neo-Nazis” and urged the United States to be more like China.

But in 2022, the New York Times admired the bravery of China’s anti-lockdown protesters fighting Xi Jinping’s “unbending approach to the pandemic” that has “hurt businesses and strangled growth.”

In 2020, CNN published an open letter from “over 1,000 health professionals” denouncing anti-lockdown protests as “rooted in white nationalism” while admiring “China’s Covid success compared to Europe.”

But in 2022, CNN admired China’s anti-lockdown protesters as “young people” who “cry for freedom”

In 2020, the Washington Post denounced anti-lockdown protesters as “angry” populists who “deeply distrust elites,” and wished the United States was more like China.

But in 2022, the Washington Post celebrated global “demonstrations of solidarity” with China’s anti-lockdown protests.

In 2020, the New Yorker denounced anti-lockdown protesters as “militias against masks” while marveling at how “China controlled the coronavirus.”

But in 2022, the New Yorker admired the protesters standing up to Xi Jinping.

Earlier this year, Amnesty International issued a statement of concern about Canada’s anti-lockdown Freedom Convoy protests being affiliated with “overtly racist, white supremacist groups,” even as Justin Trudeau invoked the Emergencies Act to crush the protests.

But now, Amnesty International has issued a statement urging the Chinese government not to detain peaceful protesters.

These headlines are, of course, in addition to the hundreds of other commentators, influencers, and health officials, such as NYT journalist Zeynep Tufekci, who used their platforms in 2020 to urge for lockdowns that were even stricter than those their governments imposed, but now join in support for those in China protesting the same policies they were urging their own countries to emulate.

Etymologically, Zeynep’s latter comment makes no sense. Lockdowns had no history in western public health policy and weren’t part of any democratic country’s pandemic plan prior to Xi Jinping’s lockdown of Wuhan in 2020. Though some countries, such as Italy, imposed lockdowns shortly before the United States, their officials too had simply taken the policy from China. Thus, because no other precedent existed, any call for a “real lockdown” or a “full lockdown” in spring 2020 was inherently a call for a Chinese-style lockdown.

Though by “full lockdown” Zeynep may have intended somewhere in between the strictness of lockdowns in the United States and China, there was no way for any reader to know what that medium was; it existed only in her own head. Thus, the reader is left only with a call for a “full lockdown,” and the only example of a “successful” “full lockdown” that then existed was a full Chinese lockdown.

Zeynep’s latter comment further illustrates the efficacy of what was arguably some of the CCP’s most effective lockdown propaganda in early 2020: The ridiculous viral videos of CCP cadres “welding doors shut” so poor Wuhan residents couldn’t escape.

CCP apologists have argued that these videos prove the CCP was not trying to influence the international response to Covid, because they make the CCP look so bad. But on the contrary, the over-the-top inhumanity of the idea of welding residents’ doors shut was precisely the purpose of this propaganda campaign. The idea had to be so absurd that no decent government would ever actually try it. It thus gave the CCP and its apologists an infinite excuse for why lockdowns “worked” in China and nowhere else—because only China had ever had a “real lockdown” in which residents were welded into their homes.

When those with a decent knowledge of geopolitics or a bit of common sense see a graph like this, which looks nothing like that of any other country in the world, from a regime with a long history of faking its data on virtually every topic, the conclusion is obvious: China’s results are fraudulent. But to simple minds, a weld is a strong, durable bond capable of incredible feats, from supporting skyscrapers to spaceships. Surely, if a weld can do all that, then it must be able to stop a ubiquitous respiratory virus?

The entire concept is, of course, utterly asinine. You cannot stop a respiratory virus by indefinitely suspending everyone’s rights. But this idea that lockdowns had worked in China because the CCP had gone so far as to weld people into their homes was invoked over and over again during Covid, creating a limitless “No-True-Scotsman” out for lockdown apologists as to why lockdowns weren’t “working” anywhere except China. Whether COVID-19 cases went up, down, or sideways, the solution would always be the same: “Be more like China.”

The use of this darkly humorous propaganda campaign of welding residents into their homes speaks to two key points as to how Xi Jinping and CCP hawks like him view China’s relationship with the west. The first is that westerners will never respect the CCP; thus, you can make westerners believe anything so long as it confirms westerners’ prior belief that the CCP is barbaric.

Second, Xi Jinping sees the concepts of democracy and human rights as mere propaganda that western elites use to further their own self-interest. So long as they approve of a policy, then it’s not a human rights violation, but if they oppose it, then it is. It remains to be seen whether the response to Covid will, in the long run, ultimately advance Xi’s goal of making the world China. But insofar as the intent was to get western elites to simultaneously support totalitarianism in their own countries while pretending to oppose it in China, then he’s certainly made his point.

*  *  *

Michael P Senger is an attorney and author of Snake Oil: How Xi Jinping Shut Down the World. Want to support my work? Get the book

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/05/2022 - 15:53

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