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Conflict Of Interest (rates): 10-year Treasury Yield Highest in Almost Two Years

The dollar was high and going higher. Emerging markets had been seriously complaining. In one, the top central banker for India outright warned, “dollar funding has evaporated.” The TIC data supported his view, with full-blown negative months, net…

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The dollar was high and going higher. Emerging markets had been seriously complaining. In one, the top central banker for India outright warned, “dollar funding has evaporated.” The TIC data supported his view, with full-blown negative months, net selling from afar that’s historically akin to what was coming out of India and the rest of the world. China was cutting its RRR multiple times.

This was all following May 29, 2018, too, a day in the global “bond market” which had left no doubt collateral conditions had already become seriously strained; the monetary tightening exclamation point on all of the above.

Clear dollar shortage stuff, one after another after another. And since the “bond market” and US Treasuries are at the center of it all, or closest viewpoint from which to peer inside the vast monetary shadows, LT UST yields of course…rose?

Huh?

Yeah, they did. Not only that, after having reached a high on May 17, the 10-year would climb further to its highest in seven years by early October. You might remember those days, it was in all the newspapers, splashed across the internet in every form of its mediums.



 

 



The bond bull was immediately declared deader than a doornail, done, fork stuck already in what was reported as its rotting carcass stinking up the place. Inflation had killed it off, too, they said. Get used to much, much higher rates because this sucker, Jay’s economy was absolutely roaring.

Obviously, none of it was true; not the bond “bull” bull, nor all the scattershot analysis thrown around, including a whole library of the same such commentary beyond the tiny sample reproduced (easily) above.

Barely over a month later, it all went downhill – literally, in the case of bond yields as well as the global economy.

So what did happen in 2018? How can bond yields still go up despite all those nasty things listed at the outset? And what might that episode three years ago tell us about our current markets and global situation?

First, always remember yield curve dynamics; the Treasury curve, like any other, isn’t monolithic. There are parts, and each piece is oftentimes influenced by separate factors. If you haven’t already, this is a good place to start for these basics.

In addition to nominal yields and the curve level, you always, always need to pay close attention to the shape – on the whole as well as in discrete parts – and how the profile changes over time. This is a dynamic monetary/financial/economic universe, and the curve distorts with meaning and purpose hardly anyone nowadays seems able to properly decode.

Though they are related, and do share some common factors, the balance of those can be quite different such that there are almost two curves operating simultaneously. The one at the front is most heavily inclined by monetary alternatives, and that money-like influence continues out into the middle of the notes – up to around the 5-year maturity (for a more detailed and complete description of these inner workings, click on the link above).

From the 7-year note on out to the long bond end, this is Irving Fisher’s territory, the land of inflation and growth expectations as only somewhat predisposed by the cross-currents and perceptions of those front-end conditions.

When there are times the Treasury curve really does act like two Treasury curves, the boundary falls somewhere in that 5-year to 10-year No Man’s Land (this is why, of all the curve’s calendar spreads, I always start with the 5s10s because it crosses this border and sends us absolutely clear and powerful signals about this front vs. back relationship).

What was happening throughout 2018 was the yield curve splitting in two. On the one side, up front, the Fed and its federal funds target along with the various reserve programs (RRP, IOER) offering money alternatives via that set of policies. According to Janet Yellen then Jay Powell’s FOMC, they believed like all the media articles above the country was about to get itself into inflationary trouble.

It was becoming too good, they reasoned.

To head off that “danger”, rate hikes (as well as QT, but that’s a somewhat related tangent not necessary to go over today). For the Treasury curve, it would mean upward nominal pressure from below, from the shortest run.



While all that was taking place in the short curve, the long end outright resisted the pressure even as yields here moved up, too. That was the back end squeeze, or flattening, competing narratives being played out in the whole curve’s shape. The overall shape flattened even as rates front to back rose because, Irving Fisher, growth and inflation expectations beyond any temporary short run Fed influence were not matching up with the Fed’s projections for those rate hikes.

This is where all those dollar shortage factors I cited at the outset had come into play. The more 2018 passed, the more doubts about longer run inflation and growth grew as signals of deflationary potential continued to come one after another. However, the process of sorting those competing probabilities took time; it was only over much time that the spectrum of possibilities began to more completely favor the long end’s pessimism.

This had meant up to October and early November 2018, the yield curve would rise in nominal level while at the same time flattening dramatically. The future before that point was still undecided as to which curve, front or back, would win out.

Right here is where the landmine comes into it, thus why I place so much emphasis on it. Time after time, the landmine has proved to be the moment when these conflicting viewpoints get settled. To date, they’ve always been settled to the long end’s doubts (which simply means long end doubts about deflationary risk and potential become just deflation).

After that point, the whole thing is united once again as it collapses even up in the front (December 2018’s inversion).

While everyone was told to focus exclusively on the highest-in-seven-years nominal 10s UST back in October and November 2018, that hadn’t actually meant anything useful or relevant; instead, the flat shape of the curve should’ve been everyone’s focus as it was those doubts even as interest rates rose and Powell’s hawks went unchallenged everywhere outside the yield curves second (back) half.

And they quickly melted away by the middle of November 2018 to leave everyone stunned; the bond “bull” very much alive and wreaking havoc yet again in Jay Powell’s expensive China shop, shelves overloaded with expensive media hot takes easily kicked over and trampled into forgettable dust.

You have probably heard that today, January 7, December’s Payroll Friday, the UST 10s closed up trading at 1.76%, the highest yield in nearly two years!! The media is again ablaze with BOND ROUT!!!!!, the new high being heralded as the latest definitive sign of the bond market giving up and coming around to the inflation-red-hot-economy Jay Powell’s FOMC is once again using to justify its hawkishness.

Like 2018, however, the yield curve has become similarly split and for all the same reasons. Over the past few weeks, the front end (out to the 5s) has been influenced by first the hawkish resolve (lots of rate hikes are coming!) before more recently having judged the omicron scare as little more than overkill.




Powell has previously emphasized how the pandemic would be the one factor which could derail his taper/rate hike plans. With omicron appearing less and less of a stumbling block, the Fed’s temporary influence has taken over the short end, the road clear for rate hike liftoff maybe even by March.

This has similarly extended into the long end in that same 2018 way, to the point today the 10-year yield traded higher than its March 2021 peak. Upward pressure from underneath as the Treasury market doesn’t see anything right now, nothing tangible or immediate which over the short run might have a high probability of stopping the FOMC.

This despite again all those dollar shortage warning signs as stated in the opening paragraph. The flat curve, however, shows that those are still being taken seriously even as LT rates trend moderately higher.

Powell’s economic optimism, if you want to call it that since much of it derives from the unemployment rate and wage data, has been traded more forthrightly into the front with omicron fears fading. This translates into these modestly higher nominal levels but not a steeper shape. 

It leaves us once more with these conflicting views meeting somewhere in the middle. 

With no 2021 or yet 2022 landmine, the yield curve is actually two curves again waiting for this clash or conflict of interest rates (thanks Mr. Tateo for suggesting this title) to be settled one way or the other. Balance of probabilities in the front are more favorable, yet still so much unappreciated negative potential keeps a lid on it at the back. 

There are other parts of the bond market equation to consider, as there had been three years ago, but I’ll save the similar move in TIPS real yields for next week. The eurodollar futures curve, still kinked but now un-inverted, I’ll also leave as a cliffhanger, too.



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New Research Shows Declining Confidence in the Education Profession, With Educators Calling for Connection, Community and Customization

New Research Shows Declining Confidence in the Education Profession, With Educators Calling for Connection, Community and Customization
PR Newswire
BOSTON, Aug. 18, 2022

Critical insights reveal how edtech is transforming the classroom; 81% of educ…

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New Research Shows Declining Confidence in the Education Profession, With Educators Calling for Connection, Community and Customization

PR Newswire

Critical insights reveal how edtech is transforming the classroom; 81% of educators say we are now closer to fully realizing the potential of technology in teaching

BOSTON, Aug. 18, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- According to the 2022 Educator Confidence Report, released today from learning technology company HMH, confidence in the education profession has dropped for the second year in a row. An annual barometer for how educators across the country are feeling about the state of teaching and learning, today's report found more than 3 in 4 (76%) educators feel negatively about the state of the teaching profession in the U.S. The Educator Confidence Index, a measure of overall confidence (out of 100), continues to drop and now sits at 40.0—its lowest in the report's history—down from 42.7 in 2021 and 49.0 in 2020.

According to HMH's research, which surveyed more than 1,000 K-12 classroom teachers and 125+ administrators, educator retention hinges on immediate needs more than long-term developments, including improved salary and benefits, support for educator well-being and adequate funding for the classroom. Conducted between May and June in partnership with MarketCast, the report revealed three major themes for achieving success in the future:  Connection, Community and Customization.

Connection: A Digital-First Era

When it comes to technology, educators see strong connections between the teacher, student, classroom and home as the top priority. Seventy-three percent of educators report feeling technology is significantly more integrated into the classroom now than pre-pandemic, with tools to communicate between teachers and parents (63%) and tools that deliver interactive learning opportunities to students (57%) most favored among teachers. Even more, 68% of educators said edtech has become essential to the classroom.

Importantly, survey results showed that educators realize the potential in classroom technology and can visualize how it fits into their workflow. 81% report the experiences of the last two years have moved education closer to fully realizing the potential of technology in teaching. Educators are most excited about easy-to-use technology that can be used in-classroom and remotely (63%).

"We believe that the future of learning will be powered to a meaningful degree by technology yet centered on human connection, and this year's survey data gives us clear insight into how to realize that vision," said Jack Lynch, CEO of Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. "Educators are telling us that today's status quo isn't cutting it, but they also see a path to the future. Importantly, that path relies on addressing basic needs like wellbeing and mental health concerns, both for teachers and students, supported by connected technology that allows educators and focus on what matters most, human relationships."

Community: A Need for Broad Support

Educators report needing more consideration for their overall wellbeing now, with 78% of educators stating that their top concern is the mental health of their peers. The majority also need more aid in the classroom, with 64% saying they need adequate funding for classroom supplies and resources.  According to today's educators, improved salary and benefits (90%) and more support for educator well-being (67%) would make the profession more appealing to new educators.

"On top of concerns around student wellness and performance, educators are increasingly worried about their peers," said Francie Alexander, Chief Research Officer at Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. "To nurture their needs, we must invest in tools to help our educators make the connections with their networks in ways that best serve them. Parents, administrators, policymakers and community members are all needed to support teachers and foster a new generation of educators."

Customization: Personalization for Students and Educators

Data shows that educators believe the future of the classroom is personalized—for both students and teachers, with data-driven, personalized edtech solutions making it possible to meet everyone where they are. 79% of educators say customized learning based on what students know and what they need would most transform learning and teaching in the future.

With pandemic-induced interrupted learning continuing to stay top of mind in the classroom, educators said the top tools to aid sustained learning recovery were targeted instructional materials or resources (62%), followed by supplemental resources (55%). When looking ahead, 65% of educators say technology solutions that connect instruction—including supplemental and remediation work—and assessment on one platform are will transform the next era of education.

Additional key findings from the eighth annual Educator Confidence Report include:

  • Community support for teacher compensation is key for not only retention, but for the future of the profession. Concerns about teacher salaries are up 16% since 2020, and when looking forward to the next school year, a higher salary would be most motivating for educators, especially teachers (84%).
  • Teachers are looking for more appreciation, respect and "trust in their experience." When considering long-term developments to support the profession, educators want increased community support and engagement (52%) – as respect for the role of the teacher is down 26% since 2020 and a strengthening of the connection between families and schools has dipped 18% since 2020.
  • Educator and student wellbeing emerges as a top theme coming out of the pandemic. 61% of educators agree the most positive thing to come out of pandemic-era schooling is the increased attention paid to student social and emotional needs. For this reason, there is a strong agreement around the need for well-planned SEL programs (87%).

About the Educator Confidence Report
The Educator Confidence Report is an annual independent study, distributed to a diverse national cross section. The eighth annual Educator Confidence Report, underwritten by Houghton Mifflin Harcourt and conducted between May-June 2022 with MarketCast, surveyed more than 1,200 educators, including 1,058 teachers and 143 administrators.

Learn more about the 2022 Educator Confidence Report at hmhco.com/ecr.

About HMH
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt is a learning technology company committed to delivering connected solutions that engage learners, empower educators and improve student outcomes. As a leading provider of K–12 core curriculum, supplemental and intervention solutions, and professional learning services, HMH partners with educators and school districts to uncover solutions that unlock students' potential and extend teachers' capabilities. HMH serves more than 50 million students and 4 million educators in 150 countries. For more information, visit www.hmhco.com

Follow HMH on TwitterFacebook, Instagram and YouTube.

Media Contact
Katie Marshall
Communications Manager, HMH
Katie.Marshall@hmhco.com 

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SOURCE Houghton Mifflin Harcourt

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Economics

Bank of America Awards More Than $1.2 Million to Atlanta Nonprofits

Bank of America Awards More Than $1.2 Million to Atlanta Nonprofits
PR Newswire
ATLANTA, Aug. 18, 2022

Grants to 53 organizations across region focus on basic needs, workforce development, and education in disadvantaged and vulnerable communities
A…

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Bank of America Awards More Than $1.2 Million to Atlanta Nonprofits

PR Newswire

Grants to 53 organizations across region focus on basic needs, workforce development, and education in disadvantaged and vulnerable communities

ATLANTA, Aug. 18, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Bank of America announced more than $1.2 million in grants to 53 Atlanta nonprofits to help drive economic opportunity for individuals and families. Grants focus on workforce development and education to help individuals chart a path to employment and better economic futures, as well as basic needs fundamental to building life-long stability.

While Atlanta's economy is recovering from the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, and Georgia's unemployment rate (2.9%) is better than the national average (3.6%), the state has also added more jobs. According to the Georgia Department of Labor, the state's jobs are at all-time high.

Employment is a key driver of economic mobility in Atlanta. That's why the bank is focused on building pathways to employment by supporting a range of workforce development and educational opportunities that will help vulnerable individuals and families stabilize and advance.

"Investing in partnerships with nonprofit organizations addressing issues like workforce development, food insecurity and affordable housing is part of our approach to driving economic opportunity and social progress in Atlanta," said Al McRae, president, Bank of America Atlanta. "This recent philanthropic investment in Atlanta nonprofits is just one way Bank of America deploys capital locally to help remove barriers to economic success and build a more sustainable community."

One Bank of America grant recipient is Georgia Justice Project (GJP). For 15 years, GJP has helped individuals clean up their criminal history to remove barriers to employment, housing and education. With this support from Bank of America, GJP will be able to help people leaving the criminal justice system become empowered members of our community.

"One mistake should not mean a lifetime without opportunity," said Georgia Justice Project's Executive Director, Doug Ammar. "This support from Bank of America will help Georgia Justice Project expand its commitment to Georgians who have been impacted by the criminal legal system and help marginalized people get a second chance. Our gratitude to Bank of America for furthering our mission to reduce crime and recidivism in our communities by empowering individuals to make positive changes in their lives."

The full list of organizations receiving grants are:

  • Asian American Resource Foundation
  • Atlanta Business League
  • Atlanta Center for Self Sufficiency
  • Atlanta Police Foundation
  • Atlanta Victim Assistance
  • Atlanta Volunteer Lawyers Foundation
  • Back on My Feet
  • Bigger Vision of Athens
  • Catholic Charities of the Archdiocese Atlanta
  • CHRIS 180
  • City of Refuge
  • Clark Atlanta University
  • Communities in Schools of Atlanta
  • Cristo Rey Atlanta Jesuit High School
  • Dalton State College Foundation
  • East Lake Foundation
  • Families First
  • Family Promise of Hall County
  • Food Bank of Northeast Georgia
  • Genesis Joy House Homeless Shelter
  • Georgia Justice Project
  • Georgia Mountain Food Bank
  • Grady Health System
  • Grove Park Foundation
  • Jonathan's House Ministries
  • Junior Achievement of Georgia
  • La Amistad
  • Latin American Association
  • Local Initiatives Support Corporation
  • Meals on Wheels Atlanta
  • Must Ministries
  • Nana Grants
  • Open Hand Atlanta
  • Partnership Against Domestic Violence
  • Per Scholas
  • Saint Joseph's Mercy Care Services
  • Shelters to Shutters
  • Strive International
  • Teach for America
  • The Posse Foundation
  • The Summit Counseling Center
  • The Urban League of Greater Atlanta
  • Trees Atlanta
  • United Negro College Fund
  • United Way of Greater Atlanta
  • University of Georgia Research Foundation
  • Urban League of Greater Columbus
  • Urban Health and Wellness
  • Women in Technology
  • Women Moving On
  • Year Up
  • Young Men's Christian Association of Athens, GA
    - Young Women's Christian Organization of Athens, GA

Since 2017, Bank of America's nearly 5,000 Atlanta teammates have contributed over 255,000 volunteer hours and $30 million in grant support to organizations in metro Atlanta. These investments are part of the company's commitment to responsible growth to improve the financial lives of individuals, families, and communities across the state.

Learn more about Bank of America's Philanthropic Strategy

Bank of America

Bank of America is one of the world's leading financial institutions, serving individual consumers, small and middle-market businesses and large corporations with a full range of banking, investing, asset management and other financial and risk management products and services. The company provides unmatched convenience in the United States, serving approximately 67 million consumer and small business clients with approximately 4,000 retail financial centers, approximately 16,000 ATMs and award-winning digital banking with approximately 55 million verified digital users. Bank of America is a global leader in wealth management, corporate and investment banking and trading across a broad range of asset classes, serving corporations, governments, institutions and individuals around the world. Bank of America offers industry-leading support to approximately 3 million small business households through a suite of innovative, easy-to-use online products and services. The company serves clients through operations across the United States, its territories and approximately 35 countries. Bank of America Corporation stock (NYSE: BAC) is listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

Reporters may contact:

Matthew Daily, Bank of America   
Phone: 1.404.607.2844
matthew.daily@bofa.com

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SOURCE Bank of America Corporation

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Economics

OUT OF HOME ADVERTISING REVENUES IN Q2 2022 HIT $2.62 BILLION, ON PAR WITH PRE-PANDEMIC RECORD-HIGHS OF 2019

OUT OF HOME ADVERTISING REVENUES IN Q2 2022 HIT $2.62 BILLION, ON PAR WITH PRE-PANDEMIC RECORD-HIGHS OF 2019
PR Newswire
WASHINGTON, Aug. 18, 2022

OAAA OOH Ad Revenue Report Also Shows Q2 2022 Up 28.9% YOY
WASHINGTON, Aug. 18, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — …

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OUT OF HOME ADVERTISING REVENUES IN Q2 2022 HIT $2.62 BILLION, ON PAR WITH PRE-PANDEMIC RECORD-HIGHS OF 2019

PR Newswire

OAAA OOH Ad Revenue Report Also Shows Q2 2022 Up 28.9% YOY

WASHINGTON, Aug. 18, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Out of home (OOH) advertising revenue increased 28.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022 compared to the previous year, accounting for $2.62 billion, based on figures released by the Out of Home Advertising Association of America (OAAA). These Q2 revenues are roughly equivalent to pre-pandemic highs, when Q2 2019 OOH revenues totaled a record-breaking $2.69 billion. Year-to-date through June, OOH revenue is now at $4.43 billion, and up 33.4 percent compared to the same period in 2021 – in line with the first half of 2019, at $4.47 billion.

The digital OOH format led total OOH growth with a 37 percent increase over second quarter 2021. The Billboard and Street Furniture categories increased double digits, while the Transit and Place-Based categories rose triple digits reflecting a strong pandemic recovery.  

"This is a watershed moment – with OOH revenues nearly matching historic, pre-pandemic highs," said Anna Bager, President and CEO, OAAA. "I am confident that these gains will continue. Recent Comscore research found that OOH delivers tremendous value in comparison to other channels, so we are in a good position to continue this momentum, despite any economic headwinds."

Eight of the top ten product industry categories increased double digits led by Public Transportation, Hotels and Resorts industry category at a 56.5 percent jump, which reflects recent reporting of increased consumer spending on services. The next four best performing industry categories all increased more than 30 percent, and included Financial, Media & Advertising, Government Politics and Organizations, and Schools Camps and Seminars.

Specific segments which were top revenue performers within the product industry categories, ranked by total OOH ad spend, included):

  • Hospitals, Clinics & Medical Centers +13%
  • Legal Services +18%
  • Quick Serve Restaurants +20%
  • Consumer Banking +36%
  • Domestic Hotels & Resorts +35%
  • Local Government +20%
  • Colleges & Universities +29%
  • Real Estate Agents, Agencies & Brokers +39%
  • Computer Software (excluding games & education) +321%
  • Food Stores & Supermarkets (chain) +13%

Ranked in order of OOH spending, the top 10 advertisers in the second quarter were McDonald's, Apple, Geico, Universal Pictures, Anheuser-Busch, American Express, Amazon, HBO, Dunkin, and T-Mobile.

Almost four in five (78%) of the top 100 OOH advertisers increased their OOH spend from Q2 2021, and over a quarter (27%) more than doubled their spend. Advertisers on this list who did not spend in Q2 2021 included: Capital One, Expedia, IHG, Canada, and Thirty Madison.

Over 20 percent (22) of the top 100 OOH spenders were technology or direct-to-consumer brands, eight were quick service restaurants brands, and seven were healthcare related (providers or insurers).

OAAA issues full industry pro forma revenue estimates that include, but are not limited to, Miller Kaplan and Kantar Media (which is not adjusted to reflect changes in data sources), and member company affidavits. Revenue estimates include digital and static billboard, street furniture, transit, place-based, and cinema advertising.

For detailed charts, go to https://bit.ly/3wbSlV7 and https://bit.ly/3ppb4ZB.

About the OAAA
The Out of Home Advertising Association of America (OAAA) is the national trade association for the $8.6 billion U.S. out of home advertising (OOH) industry, which includes digital out of home (DOOH), and is comprised of billboards, street furniture, transit advertising, and place-based media (including cinema).

OAAA is comprised of 800+ member media companies, advertisers, agencies, ad-tech providers, and suppliers that represent over 90 percent of the industry. OAAA is a unified voice, an authoritative thought leader, and a passionate advocate that protects, unites, and advances OOH advertising in the United States.

OAAA-member media companies donate over $500 million in public service advertising annually. Every year, the industry celebrates and rewards OOH creativity via its renowned OBIE Awards (obieawards.org). For more information, please visit oaaa.org.

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SOURCE Out of Home Advertising Association of America

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