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Coho Capital 2Q20 Commentary: SPOT On

Coho Capital 2Q20 Commentary: SPOT On

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SPOT Amazon Music Unlimited vs Apple Music

Coho Capital commentary for the second quarter ended June 30, discussing Spotify Technology SA (NYSE:SPOT)’s impressive growth.

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Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Dear Partners,

Coho Capital returned 46.6% during the first half of the year compared to a loss of 3.1% in the S&P 500. Many of our holdings, such as Netflix, Amazon, and Spotify, were perceived beneficiaries of the Coronavirus pandemic aiding our results in the short-term. We suspect some of the outperformance gained from pandemic-driven demand will reverse in ensuing months as momentum traders abandon the stocks. While the pandemic pulled forward digital demand, the more important takeaway for us is the notion that a good business model provides the ultimate margin of safety.

While strong performance from our portfolio stalwarts stabilized performance, portfolio insurance in the form of long volatility options and put options on cruise ship operators further bolstered results.

While we are not top-down investors, we believe macro factors are an important component of portfolio risk-control. When COVID-19 began spreading in China, markets were unperturbed with most looking toward past viral outbreaks for guidance. Most of the hot takes proffered in the business news media were pedaled by often wrong, but never in doubt, equity analysts. While history is illustrative it often leads to sloppy past as prologue analysis, especially on Wall Street. As Coronavirus (not yet COVID-19) jumped borders to South Korea it became clear that the first global pandemic in our lifetime was unfolding.

Without a virologist background, we knew we could not predict the scope of the virus, but given the fallout in other countries it was evident that outcomes were highly skewed and the ability to price risk was quickly evaporating. Given the potential for asymmetric downside, we thought it made sense to err on the side of caution. Lucky for us, after eleven years of economic expansion, ^VIX call pricing implied muted volatility allowing us to pick up insurance on the cheap.

SPOT On

“If you focus on near-term growth above all else, you miss the most important question you should be asking: will this business still be around a decade from now? Numbers alone won’t tell you the answer; instead, you must thing critically about the qualitative characteristics of your business.” – Peter Thiel

One of the most important considerations in consumer-facing technology investing is asking whether the product alleviates pain points, reduces friction or enhances convenience. Whether it is Amazon, Netflix or Peloton, all winning consumer platforms exhibit these attributes. With its best-in-class user experience (UX), along with class-leading music discovery and curation, so too does Spotify. It has all the makings of a company on its ways to platform dominance.

Spotify is the category leader in music streaming with 299 million subscribers across 92 countries. With 35% of the global music streaming market, the company has nearly twice the market share of Apple Music, at 19%. SPOT has compounded its leading position in recent years adding premium subscribers at twice the rate of Apple. While Spotify’s growth has been impressive we think the adoption of music streaming is still in early innings.

“Earshare is the new mindshare” – Andreessen Horowitz

Music streaming has already produced an epochal shift in how people listen to music with most of the adoption taking place through mobile phones. While historically mobile phones have provided the onramp to music streaming consumption, the next phase of growth will be driven by a plethora of emerging platforms including connected cars, gaming devices, workout equipment and smart speakers (owned by 53 million Americans). Music streaming is tailor-made for the emerging music everywhere lifestyle. The surfeit of products designed for music streaming enables one to listen to the same podcast or playlist while doing a morning workout, commuting to the office (headphones or connected car), working on your office PC and upon returning to home relaxing with a smart speaker. The transition across devices and activities is seamless allowing one to pick up where they left off no matter their activity. The integration of music everywhere into our lives exponentially increases the value of music streaming, moving it from a nice-to-have to a must-have service.

As device proliferation accelerates, SPOT’s position as the category leader makes it most likely to be designed into device presets. Just as Google Maps is pre-loaded on car dashboard screens so too is Spotify. This creates a virtuous feedback loop with scale leading to design integration, which in turn drives scale higher through new consumer trials. This is similar to what we have seen with Sirius’ dominance of satellite radio. Spotify is already available on 300 devices across 80 hardware brands. With that kind of hardware footprint, it becomes very difficult to dislodge incumbency.

While the market tends to categorize music streaming customers on a like per like basis, Spotify users are more passionate. Spotify listeners are twice as engaged as Apple Music users and three times as engaged as Amazon Music Unlimited users. Other than an operating system (which is perhaps the right way to think of SPOT – audio OS), there are few software programs or apps that generate the daily usage of Spotify. The average Spotify user spends 25 hours a month on the service, topping even Facebook at 19 hours a month and Instagram at 14 hours per month.

With each music streaming service offering up largely identical music libraries, conventional wisdom suggests there is little in the way of competitive differentiation making the music streaming platforms commodity businesses. This would be true if one did not care about user experience, search functionality or social integration. The very fact that the average Spotify user is on the platform an entire day a month suggests that ease of use and value of discovery are paramount. There is no doubt that Spotify’s platform is sticky with 70% of churned users returning within 45 days. This is indicative of its competitive differentiation, something we believe the market has not caught on to yet. Ultimately, we think the economic spoils from music subscription will be greater than video platforms as most users will only subscriber to one platform.

SPOT has rerated materially this year rising 70% due to excitement surrounding its podcasting strategy. While shares have recently caught a bid, they had languished for two years prior after going public at $169 per share in April of 2018. Much of the enthusiasm gap during this period can be traced to misunderstandings regarding Spotify’s business model and its future prospects. We will address these misgivings below and outline why we think Spotify is one of the best market opportunities over the next decade.

Labels - "You Can’t Always Get What You Want." - Rolling Stones

“Aggregators consolidate demand to gain power of supply.” – Ben Thompson, Stratechery

The primary bear case on SPOT is that they will forever be in the music label’s clutches with 80% of current streaming hours supplied by four labels. Not only that, but at present Spotify benefits little from operating leverage with variable costs rising in tandem with streaming. Not surprisingly, it is much more lucrative to collect royalties (labels) then it is to pay royalties (Spotify).

To know where we are going, it is helpful to know where we’ve been. Prior to streaming, the music industry endured fifteen years of stagnation and decline with recorded music revenues dropping from $14.6 billion in 1999 to $6.7 billion in 2015 (a 68% drop in inflation adjusted terms). It was only once music streaming gained traction that the industry was able to return to growth. Last year, music streaming represented 80% of the music industry’s revenue.

Before music streaming, it made sense for music labels to collect the lion’s share of profits. After all, labels funded the retail network, oversaw the capital-intensive business of producing and distributing physical media and discovered and promoted stars. Many of those tasks have been rendered obsolete by music streaming. The retail network no longer exists and instead it is SPOT that is funding the build-out of music streaming. Streaming has all but eradicated physical media optimizing label cost structures and promotion is aided considerably by Spotify’s data tools. Despite the seismic shift in industry structure, industry profit pool participation is little changed. In fact, with labels capturing 65% of music publishing profits, one could rightfully accuse the labels of economic plundering.

“But if you try sometimes, well, you just might find, you get what you need.” – Rolling Stones

Current music streaming profit dynamics are unsustainable. It makes no sense for SPOT to continue to finance the build out of global music streaming while the music labels reap all the spoils. Ultimately, we think a sort of détente will prevail with label economic participation curtailed to better reflect their contemporary contribution to the eco-system. With streaming responsible for the resurgence of the music industry, the labels need Spotify for maximum distribution. While in theory the labels could pull their catalogues from Spotify to extract leverage, such a move would sabotage their relationships with music artists who would see their earnings drop precipitously. Rather than play hardball with Spotify, it makes more sense to give up a few points of margin in exchange for a thriving global music industry with double digit growth rates as far as the eye can see. Over time, we expect Spotify to capture the economics of the music industry value chain commensurate with its importance to the eco-system.

Apart from shifts in industry value creation, music streaming is upending how consumers discover new artists. With exploratory music streamers broadening their horizons, the music industry may well be less star-driven in the future. A digital distribution model has fewer gatekeepers than terrestrial radio and retail networks. This allows for an organic discovery process rather than a prescribed feting of the next big thing by label hype machines. While bandwagon effects can be amplified in digital environments, there is growing evidence that the enhanced discoverability of SPOT’s platform is making music listening more diffuse. To wit, “a couple of years ago…the top 90% of listening was about 16,000 artists, that’s now grown to 32,000 artists.” (now 43,000) – Spotify CFO Paul Aaron Vogel in 2019. The net effect should be broader market participation by independent artists, which would weaken label’s power over time. In addition, we expect enhanced discoverability to increase the globalization of music resulting in an erosion of US-centric labels’ market power and increased supply from non-domestic labels where supply tends to be more fragmented. In summary, the importance of search in surfacing music content is bound to diminish the music label’s hoarding of industry profits.

A David Among Goliaths

Apart from supplier power, the other mark against Spotify concerns its ability to ward off the competitive advances of tech behemoths Amazon and Apple. These concerns are not misguided as Apple has demonstrated its ability to take significant share, growing from a standing start in 2015 to 19% market share last year. A large active base of over one billion connected iPhones gives Apple a head-start in establishing a connection with non-music streaming customers and a significant advantage in Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC).

Amazon has also had success (13% market share) with a cut rate offering of $8.00 for Amazon Prime members. Like Apple, Amazon enjoys device advantages due to its Alexa smart speakers as well as Alexa design integration on non-Amazon hardware. Native design in smart speakers is a critical onramp for music subscribers as a request to play music defaults to Amazon Music.

Last, there is YouTube (5% market share), which benefits from its ubiquity on our screens.

As a competitive slate, this is a murderers’ row. All three dominate globally, possess deep pockets and enjoy low CAC. Moreover, each is happy to utilize music as a loss-leader to sell more phones (Apple), serve more ads (Google), or in Amazon’s case, deepen its commitment to its ecosystem. It would seem that Spotify’s die is cast.

Despite their advantages, each of SPOT’s competitors’ ability to scale globally is constrained. In Amazon’s case, it is a market issue. Amazon is in 45 markets relative to the 92 markets in which Spotify has planted its flag. Further, Spotify has done a better job of localizing music offerings than its American counterparts. For Apple, gains have been constrained by the company’s inability to gain significant traction outside of its iOS operating system, which currently hovers around 25% on a global basis. Last, while YouTube is everywhere, its model will always be subpar due to an artist payout ratio per stream only 1/6th that of Spotify – Digital Music News put it thusly, “once again, please don’t ever make a career out of your earnings on the popular video platform. Trust us, you’ll regret it.”

We want to focus our energies on what Spotify brings to the table and why we think it controls its destiny. It is worth nothing, that despite competitor inroads, Spotify remains the undisputed category leader. For observers it is difficult to digest, for in this case the market leader is a David rather than a Goliath.

Data Flywheel Compounds Advantages

“I’m just sitting here watching the wheels go round and round, I really love to watch them roll.” - John Lennon

In our 2016 annual letter we wrote about our attraction to self-reinforcing business models --the rare business where each transaction on its platform makes the business structurally stronger. SPOT is such a business. With more and more businesses harvesting data through AI, scale supremacy is critical. With digital platform businesses, the quantity of data fed to algorithms determines their efficacy. The data spun off by scaled platforms, particularly those with frequent consumer engagement (Facebook, Google, Instagram, Zillow) generate superior insights due to data sets which are an order of magnitude larger than competitor data sets. In Spotify’s case, it uses data insights gleaned from its users’ listening habits to improve its recommendations for daily and weekly playlists. With data training the algorithms, scaled businesses’ advantages compound at ever quickening rates. For example, at two times the size of Apple and twice the engagement, Spotify is collecting four times as much data as Apple. This enables the company to feed its recommendation engines more data compounding its advantages. Further, since Spotify has the most global reach, it is best able to cross-pollinate songs across borders leading to increased listening utility and enhanced discoverability.

While superior data collection provides SPOT a competitive advantage within music streaming, it also enables the company to sit astride emerging audio categories outside of music. Such categories include books, courses, meditations, sports, news, talk radio, podcasts, concerts and live events. Due to the variety of platforms, apps and exclusives, searching for many of these categories is unruly. By aggregating content and serving as a central depository of all things audio, Spotify can remove frictional search costs and become a one-stop-shop for audio content, a sort of Google for audio search. Given its scale and data flywheel there is a more than outside chance this becomes reality. The resulting total addressable market would be multiples larger than currently envisioned in a music streaming scenario. Spotify CEO Daniel Ek has been consistently clear that Spotify’s market is audio and he is going after earshare not music streaming share:

“The market we’re going after is audio. That adds up to two to three billion people around the world who want to consume some type of audio content on a daily or weekly basis. If we’re going to win that market, we’d have to be at least a third of it. We have somewhere between 10-15x of where we are now of opportunity left.” – Daniel Ek on Invest Like the Best podcast

Discovery and Curation - You Get Me Spotify, You Really Get Me

“We are in the discovery business…If discovery drives delight, and delight drives engagement, and engagement drives discovery, we believe Spotify wins and so do our users.” – Spotify F-1

“At the end of the day, margin flows to whoever owns demand creation. So demand creation is everything, both in terms of driving a virtuous cycle of engagement, conversion, retention, and lifetime value.” – Former Spotify CFO Barry McCarthy

Many have complained about the challenge of finding something to watch on Netflix, a platform which clearly fails in curation and algorithmic matching. With music, the challenge can be even more daunting. For example, SPOT has over 50 million songs on its platform, making a robust discovery and curation system even more important.

Discovery is Spotify’s superpower. As elucidated in its IPO filing documents (F-1), Spotify has always understood that its primary mission is to serve as a portal to music discovery. Playlists are the backbone of Spotify’s discovery focused UX with over four billion playlists on its platform. By providing best-in-class discovery and personalization tools, Spotify creates a virtuous flywheel of demand -- with discovery driving engagement and engagement feeding data algorithms further improving personalization. The success of playlists in keeping listeners engaged is reflected in listener data with a third of listening time spent on SPOT generated playlists and a third of listening time spent on user generated playlists.

Spotify offers a playlist for every genre and every occasion with its editorial team constantly refining over 4,500 global playlists. The company’s most important playlist is Discovery Weekly, a new playlist delivered each week made just for you premised on your taste (or lack thereof). The product has been a monster hit generating 5.3 billion hours in listening since launching in 2015. By rearranging commoditized content in new ways with continual updating, Spotify is in its own way creating a form of original content. This should ultimately enable Spotify to better aggregate demand increasing its leverage over music suppliers.

The more Spotify users tailor their listening experience to their preferences the less likely they are to leave. Importantly, playlists cannot be shared across music platforms increasing customer retention. Switching costs typically denote a learning curve, but in Spotify’s case it’s premised on a personalization curve.

We all know the best entrée to music is often through an audiophile friend. With the largest base of users, coupled with the best integration in social media, SPOT offers the easiest way to find your friend’s playlist. With social at the center of playlist sharing, playlists are inherently scalable, building a stealth layer of network effects. Spotify already has the largest userbase and most engaged users naturally amplifying existing network effects.

Of course, Spotify’s competitors can produce playlists and curate content as well, but they are technology companies first whereas SPOT has passion for music in its cultural DNA. That spirit is embodied by Spotify’s RapCaviar, the most influential playlist in music. With over 13 million followers, RapCaviar breaks new stars, runs concert tours and moves culture. Just like New York’s Hot 97 used to confer star status on emerging hip hop artists so too does RapCaviar serve as a star maker for aspiring rappers of today.

Two-Sided Marketplace, Now with B Sides

“The problem is Spotify has data that we don’t have. They can see data before our labels can see it, so they have an opportunity to jump and make an investment on an artist that’s not a guess or based on gut, the way everywhere here in this room has to work – it’s based on hard knowledge and facts.” – Richard Burgess, CEO of the American Association of Independent Music

While the future balance of power between labels and Spotify will have outsized influence on Spotify’s future margin structure, we expect to see short-term initiatives provide margin relief as well. Chief among these are Spotify’s Two-Sided-Marketplace platform. As the nexus of global music distribution, Spotify collects a treasure trove of data. As such, it is uniquely positioned to deliver value to artists and record companies through richly featured data analytics. For artists, Spotify data can illustrate demand and preferences by geography and demographics. With behavioral data on 300 million users, artists can see which playlists are driving consumption and learn about their fans. For labels, Spotify can serve as a talent scout, dissecting listening data and offering insights into how to position and market artists.

The opportunity for record labels to utilize Spotify’s data is enormous. Music labels spend roughly $4 billion a year in artist advances, logistics and marketing costs. Historically, much of this spending has been spent on Led Zeppelin tour parties. The opportunity to revamp marketing dollars is vast and Spotify’s data is the key change agent toward optimizing label spend. There is a lot of soft middle ground here for the labels and SPOT to divvy up. Spotify’s Two-Sided Marketplace should allow a wholesale transfer of many of these marketing dollars to its coffers while simultaneously having a material impact on music label’s ROI. The distribution agreement reached between UMG and Spotify this month suggests closer cooperation between the two companies on the utilization of Spotify’s data – UMG commits to “deepen its leading role as an early adoption of future (marketing) products and provide valuable feedback to Spotify’s development team.”

SPOT also plans to utilize its Two-Sided Marketplace to allow for sponsored listings. Sponsored listings are a form of advertising in which labels or musicians can advertise a song to a user matched by Spotify’s algorithms. There are almost no incremental costs for Spotify as songs are merely inserted into existing playlists. Perhaps this is why Ek has stated that sponsored listings will have “software-like margins.”

On the artist side of the marketplace, Spotify has made a number of advances to burgeoning stars to trial direct relationships. According to media reports, Spotify has offered musicians that sign direct a 50% revenue share of music streams, higher than the 30% share offered by labels. While such efforts are a signal to labels of the disintermediation risk poised by music streaming platforms, we expect them to remain a small component of Spotify’s business. At present, SPOT does not have the resources to match the marketing firepower labels spend on roster stars. Nonetheless, it is an important arrow to have in its quiver as the industry evolves and is a signal for labels to play nice.

With the ability to license and promote artists, musicians may choose to increasingly go direct. Chance the Rapper is perhaps most famous for eschewing labels to go direct and yet his star has not dimmed without label promotion. As far back as 2012, Metallica realized its label, Warner Music Group, was not critical for reaching its fans or the buying public. As a result, the band ended its contract with the label and licensed its entire music catalogue to Spotify.

Podcasts, The New Talk Radio

Podcasting is a small market but growing rapidly. From its humble beginnings as a platform for audio bloggers to shout into the void, podcasting is now a $1.3 billion market growing at a 22% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). According to an annual survey commissioned by Edison Research and Triton Digital, one third of Americans listen to podcasts monthly with one quarter listening on a weekly basis. Podcast listeners are a deeply engaged bunch consuming six hours per week. Podcast listeners tend to be upwardly mobile with roughly half making over $75 thousand in annual income and one third having a graduate degree. On Spotify’s platform, engagement with podcasts rose 100% over year-over-year with an additional 20 million monthly average users listening to podcasts over the last six months.

In recent months, SPOT has accelerated its push into podcasting, announcing deals with Michelle Obama, DC Comics, Kim Kardashian and the Joe Rogan Experience. The increase in deal activity builds off the $600 million Spotify spent over the past year to acquire four podcasting companies including Gimlet (original content), The Ringer (pop culture and sports – potentially the ESPN of podcasting), Parcast (original content) and Anchor (distribution and monetizing of podcast content). Spotify is clearly angling for vertical integration to both publish and distribute content and has a real chance of becoming the preferred platform for podcast discovery.

Spotify’s exclusive with the Joe Rogan Experience podcast could be a game changer. In many ways, the Joe Rogan deal is akin to Sirius’ $500 million deal with Howard Stern in 2004. That deal completely changed the trajectory of satellite radio enabling Sirius to scale and drive operating leverage. It is worth noting that Sirius’ deal with Stern leveraged a base of 35 million US subscribers. In SPOT’s case, its deal with Rogan will be spread across 300 million existing Spotify users, not to mention Joe Rogan’s audience of 190 million monthly downloads, suggesting its potential for transformational impact could be even greater. Relative to consumption hours, podcasts are woefully under-monetized with radio generating four times as much revenue per hour.

Spotify’s embrace of podcasts is significant for two reasons; first, the flurry of activity underscores Spotify’s commitment to an audio first (inclusive of audio outside music such as courses, podcasts, meditations and books) market posture. The audio first mentality offers the potential to turn Spotify into the Google of audio search – where one begins their search for all things audio. Second, Spotify’s increasing investments in podcasts should lead to a shift in its cost structure with fixed costs replacing the variable costs paid to music labels. This is similar to Netflix’s shift from licensed content to original content. Like Netflix, Spotify’s move toward greater in-house content should drive operating leverage.

Aside from improved unit economics, podcasts also provide a point of competitive differentiation and thus improve conversion from free to paid while also increasing retention. Increased engagement with podcasts should ultimately result in increased pricing power.

It makes sense to spend heavily now as this is a business where scale begets more scale. As we have seen with Netflix, scale players can pay more for content due to their ability to spread content spend across a broader base of subscribers. On a global basis, this is a significant advantage and one SPOT should pursue aggressively. The more spent up front, the faster Spotify can make the flywheel spin – as long as engagement and new subscribers are rising in tandem. In Spotify’s case, there is the added benefit of lower cost supply due to fixed cost operating leverage on non-music content.

Management – Thinking Fast and Slow

We are big fans of management teams that ignore Wall Street. The first rule of winning is knowing what game you’re playing. For Spotify CEO Daniel Ek, it’s the long game. Since inception, Spotify has never wavered in its mission to be the best audio platform in the world and the best partner to artists and record labels. How a small Nordic-based upstart realigned the global music industry around its vision for music as a service while vanquishing the world’s most profitable company (Apple), the most widely used website service in the world (Google), and the world’s most powerful company (Amazon), all while being at the mercy of consolidated suppliers with money to burn will someday be a master class taught at the world’s best business schools. It is too soon to say Spotify has vanquished its competitors but thus far it has pressed its advantage and widened its lead.

“Music is everything we do all day, all night, and that clarity is the difference between the average and the really, really good.” – Daniel Ek

Mr. Ek has imbued SPOT with several cultural attributes that leave it well equipped to win the prize. First, and probably most important, has been focus. Ek understood early that music is a business about passion and creating a healthy ecosystem would require an artist’s mindset rather than that of a software engineer. That singularity of purpose informs its software. Apple Music is an add-on thrown in to drive revenues whereas Spotify feels like the music geek at your local record store guiding your browsing.

Second, Spotify has put the customer at the center of everything it does. Like Amazon, Netflix, and Costco, investment spend is geared toward elevating the user experience above all else. This is not done in the spirit of charity but in the recognition that customers have choice and scaled Internet platforms win the spoils. Daniel Ek put it best, “engagement drives usage, usage drives data insights, data insights drive a better user experience. A better user experience drives longer lifetime value.”

Mr. Ek has taken a patient approach in building out Spotify’s moat, realizing that he can better fortify the company with a long-term view. Just like Bezos with Amazon, Ek is happy to defer profitability in the pursuit of growth. Ek knows once Spotify achieves the scale he envisions there will be nothing anyone can do to dislodge its dominant perch. In the meantime, however, it appears foolish, just as Amazon’s 20-year march to profitability did.

It takes a unique mix of urgency and strategic planning to both focus on the long-term but relentlessly innovate in the short-term. Long-term thinking invites a plodding approach and an innovate or die approach often leads to sloppy decision making and capital allocation. Given the cognitive dissonance at the center of these two approaches it takes a master tactician to play along the continuum. Daniel Ek seems uniquely capable of playing at both ends. Spotify has continually out-innovated its peers while maintaining long-term discipline and a cost-conscious posture. Yet, it moves more quickly than anybody in the space. Mr. Ek understands scaled players win – “Success for us will be determined by our ability to move faster than everyone else in this space.”

We also like a CEO who puts his money where is mouth is. Late last year, Ek spent $16 million dollars to purchase 800 thousand SPOT warrants expiring in July of 2022. The warrants break even at $211, 56% higher than at Ek’s time of purchase. I can’t recall a CEO spending $16 million of their own money to buy warrants more than 50% out of the money. It’s a strong statement on Spotify’s future.

It is rare to find a CEO who can move fast and out-innovate competitors while at the same time remaining focused on the long game. Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos is one such example. By not playing to the whims of Wall Street, deferring profitability in the pursuit of widening its moat, and treating every day as day one, Amazon has built the most successful and enduring business the world as ever seen. It will be a long time before the world sees another Jeff Bezos but in looking at Daniel Ek’s track record thus far it is clear that he is cut from the same cloth.

Pricing Power – Through the Looking Glass

Unlimited on-demand streaming of a catalog of 50 million songs across devices and without commercials for $9.99 a month is one of the best deals around. Especially when you consider that Spotify has not changed its pricing since its US launch in 2011. Adjusting for inflation alone would equate to a price of $11.45 in today’s dollars.

Subscription services with increased engagement offer substantial consumer utility. While the price remains the same, increased engagement means lower costs for each unit of content consumed (songs for a service such as Spotify and shows or movies for a service like Netflix), a sort of personal operating leverage for consumers. This means marginal costs for extra music consumption is zero. In economics, this is known as a “consumer surplus,” which reflects the difference between the price consumers are paying for a service and the price they are willing to pay. Given the steadily growing engagement of Spotify consumers, it is our contention that the company benefits from a substantial consumer surplus which will be monetized in the future.

Many look at SPOT’s stagnant pricing and view it as proof of a commodity business. This is a dangerous assumption to make. Like Netflix, we believe Spotify has one of the longest pricing power runways in all of business. The decision to not flex pricing now is a conscious decision to hoover up as much market share as possible. As Spotify’s churn statistics indicate, it is difficult for Spotify customers to leave. Playlists, social integration, curation and user experience create enduring habits. The degree of personalization over time makes Spotify very sticky and positions it well to commoditize suppliers rather than the other way around. Given the winner take most nature of globally scaled internet businesses it makes sense to optimize for consumer lock-in now while consumer habits are still being formed. As long as engagement continues to inflect higher, monetization will come.

Valuation

“The best decisions are the ones that are really instinctive and the most simple. You can use enormous amounts of data and find all kinds of clever ways of slicing and dissecting things. But at the end of the day, the simple decision tends to be the best…One of the simplest decisions you can make is to buy the category winner and wish that the whole category does well. Because if it does, so long as the category winner stays on top of the category, they will get the disproportionate amount of the gains. And that’s been completely true in markets since time immemorial.” – Chamath Palihapitiya

After lying dormant for two years (SPOT IPOed at $169 in April 2018), Spotify’s shares have finally caught a bid. The material rerating in shares was no doubt spurned by excitement surrounding recent podcast announcements and new label negotiations. Despite this year’s robust returns, we continue to believe that Spotify offers one of the best return profiles over the next decade.

To value Spotify, you must ask what this business looks like at scale. Both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley assume the market for paid music streaming subscribers will grow to 1.2 billion by 2030. This seems more than reasonable given the world already has more than 2.7 billion global smart phones in use outside of China, so we will stick with it. We expect Spotify to continue to take market share and net out at 50% of the market. In terms of pricing, we assume SPOT will be able to grow its average revenue per user (ARPU) from $5 to $10. This may sound aggressive, but once Spotify migrates beyond the landgrab stage it will not hesitate to press on the pricing lever. Given the massive consumer surplus enjoyed by customers there is enough pricing runway to more than make up for lower ARPUs in developing markets. Further, ARPU will benefit from extra platform fees generated from Spotify’s Two-Sided Marketplace, ancillary revenue streams and increased share of podcasting in listening consumption. In aggregate, Spotify’s revenue jumps to $72 billion a year. At Spotify’s gross margin guidance of 35% (we assume 40% or higher due to business evolution and favorable label negotiations), the company would generate $25.2 billion in gross profits. Put another way, Spotify trades for roughly two times where we expect gross profits to net out in a decade. This is not inclusive of advertising profits, which given the emerging podcast platform could be significant. Nor does it consider call options on music streaming supplanting radio or Spotify becoming the destination for audio search.

Ten years is a long-time to underwrite an investment, but we strive for a punch card mentality in deploying capital. In SPOT’s case, if we are even directionally correct, we will make multiples of our investment.

Conclusion

Value investors talk a lot about patience, but typically it is about waiting for the market to rerate a company’s multiple after digesting an excisable problem. Better yet is the patience required for a company achieving global scale in a winner take most market – Facebook, Netflix, Google. The economics of these businesses are rarely apparent when in reinvestment mode, but the dominant strains of their business model often are. Spotify’s competitive advantages, while self-evident to us, are poorly understood by the market due to a focus on existing industry margin structure. As elucidated earlier, we think industry profit pool dynamics are poised to shift in SPOT’s favor. Further, there are multiple untapped monetization options through ancillary revenue streams, data products, pricing power and platform extension. There are only a handful of companies in the world capable of achieving global scale in a winner take most market, very few of them are available for less than $50 billion. If music is the soundtrack to our lives, then control of the most widely used global platform for serving up audio will surely be worth many multiples of its current market cap.

Respectfully yours,

Jake Rosser

Managing Partner

Coho Capital Management

This article first appeared on ValueWalk Premium.

The post Coho Capital 2Q20 Commentary: SPOT On appeared first on ValueWalk.

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'Excess Mortality Skyrocketed': Tucker Carlson and Dr. Pierre Kory Unpack 'Criminal' COVID Response

As the global pandemic unfolded, government-funded experimental vaccines were hastily developed for a virus which primarily killed the old and fat (and those with other obvious comorbidities), and an aggressive, global campaign to coerce billions into injecting them ensued.

Then there were the lockdowns - with some countries (New Zealand, for example) building internment camps for those who tested positive for Covid-19, and others such as China welding entire apartment buildings shut to trap people inside.

It was an egregious and unnecessary response to a virus that, while highly virulent, was survivable by the vast majority of the general population.

Oh, and the vaccines, which governments are still pushing, didn't work as advertised to the point where health officials changed the definition of "vaccine" multiple times.

Tucker Carlson recently sat down with Dr. Pierre Kory, a critical care specialist and vocal critic of vaccines. The two had a wide-ranging discussion, which included vaccine safety and efficacy, excess mortality, demographic impacts of the virus, big pharma, and the professional price Kory has paid for speaking out.

Keep reading below, or if you have roughly 50 minutes, watch it in its entirety for free on X:

"Do we have any real sense of what the cost, the physical cost to the country and world has been of those vaccines?" Carlson asked, kicking off the interview.

"I do think we have some understanding of the cost. I mean, I think, you know, you're aware of the work of of Ed Dowd, who's put together a team and looked, analytically at a lot of the epidemiologic data," Kory replied. "I mean, time with that vaccination rollout is when all of the numbers started going sideways, the excess mortality started to skyrocket."

When asked "what kind of death toll are we looking at?", Kory responded "...in 2023 alone, in the first nine months, we had what's called an excess mortality of 158,000 Americans," adding "But this is in 2023. I mean, we've  had Omicron now for two years, which is a mild variant. Not that many go to the hospital."

'Safe and Effective'

Tucker also asked Kory why the people who claimed the vaccine were "safe and effective" aren't being held criminally liable for abetting the "killing of all these Americans," to which Kory replied: "It’s my kind of belief, looking back, that [safe and effective] was a predetermined conclusion. There was no data to support that, but it was agreed upon that it would be presented as safe and effective."

Carlson and Kory then discussed the different segments of the population that experienced vaccine side effects, with Kory noting an "explosion in dying in the youngest and healthiest sectors of society," adding "And why did the employed fare far worse than those that weren't? And this particularly white collar, white collar, more than gray collar, more than blue collar."

Kory also said that Big Pharma is 'terrified' of Vitamin D because it "threatens the disease model." As journalist The Vigilant Fox notes on X, "Vitamin D showed about a 60% effectiveness against the incidence of COVID-19 in randomized control trials," and "showed about 40-50% effectiveness in reducing the incidence of COVID-19 in observational studies."

Professional costs

Kory - while risking professional suicide by speaking out, has undoubtedly helped save countless lives by advocating for alternate treatments such as Ivermectin.

Kory shared his own experiences of job loss and censorship, highlighting the challenges of advocating for a more nuanced understanding of vaccine safety in an environment often resistant to dissenting voices.

"I wrote a book called The War on Ivermectin and the the genesis of that book," he said, adding "Not only is my expertise on Ivermectin and my vast clinical experience, but and I tell the story before, but I got an email, during this journey from a guy named William B Grant, who's a professor out in California, and he wrote to me this email just one day, my life was going totally sideways because our protocols focused on Ivermectin. I was using a lot in my practice, as were tens of thousands of doctors around the world, to really good benefits. And I was getting attacked, hit jobs in the media, and he wrote me this email on and he said, Dear Dr. Kory, what they're doing to Ivermectin, they've been doing to vitamin D for decades..."

"And it's got five tactics. And these are the five tactics that all industries employ when science emerges, that's inconvenient to their interests. And so I'm just going to give you an example. Ivermectin science was extremely inconvenient to the interests of the pharmaceutical industrial complex. I mean, it threatened the vaccine campaign. It threatened vaccine hesitancy, which was public enemy number one. We know that, that everything, all the propaganda censorship was literally going after something called vaccine hesitancy."

Money makes the world go 'round

Carlson then hit on perhaps the most devious aspect of the relationship between drug companies and the medical establishment, and how special interests completely taint science to the point where public distrust of institutions has spiked in recent years.

"I think all of it starts at the level the medical journals," said Kory. "Because once you have something established in the medical journals as a, let's say, a proven fact or a generally accepted consensus, consensus comes out of the journals."

"I have dozens of rejection letters from investigators around the world who did good trials on ivermectin, tried to publish it. No thank you, no thank you, no thank you. And then the ones that do get in all purportedly prove that ivermectin didn't work," Kory continued.

"So and then when you look at the ones that actually got in and this is where like probably my biggest estrangement and why I don't recognize science and don't trust it anymore, is the trials that flew to publication in the top journals in the world were so brazenly manipulated and corrupted in the design and conduct in, many of us wrote about it. But they flew to publication, and then every time they were published, you saw these huge PR campaigns in the media. New York Times, Boston Globe, L.A. times, ivermectin doesn't work. Latest high quality, rigorous study says. I'm sitting here in my office watching these lies just ripple throughout the media sphere based on fraudulent studies published in the top journals. And that's that's that has changed. Now that's why I say I'm estranged and I don't know what to trust anymore."

Vaccine Injuries

Carlson asked Kory about his clinical experience with vaccine injuries.

"So how this is how I divide, this is just kind of my perception of vaccine injury is that when I use the term vaccine injury, I'm usually referring to what I call a single organ problem, like pericarditis, myocarditis, stroke, something like that. An autoimmune disease," he replied.

"What I specialize in my practice, is I treat patients with what we call a long Covid long vaxx. It's the same disease, just different triggers, right? One is triggered by Covid, the other one is triggered by the spike protein from the vaccine. Much more common is long vax. The only real differences between the two conditions is that the vaccinated are, on average, sicker and more disabled than the long Covids, with some pretty prominent exceptions to that."

Watch the entire interview above, and you can support Tucker Carlson's endeavors by joining the Tucker Carlson Network here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/14/2024 - 16:20

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Government

For-profit nursing homes are cutting corners on safety and draining resources with financial shenanigans − especially at midsize chains that dodge public scrutiny

Owners of midsize nursing home chains drain billions from facilities, hiding behind opaque accounting practices and harming the elderly as government,…

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The care at Landmark of Louisville Rehabilitation and Nursing was abysmal when state inspectors filed their survey report of the Kentucky facility on July 3, 2021.

Residents wandered the halls in a facility that can house up to 250 people, yelling at each other and stealing blankets. One resident beat a roommate with a stick, causing bruising and skin tears. Another was found in bed with a broken finger and a bloody forehead gash. That person was allowed to roam and enter the beds of other residents. In another case, there was sexual touching in the dayroom between residents, according to the report.

Meals were served from filthy meal carts on plastic foam trays, and residents struggled to cut their food with dull plastic cutlery. Broken tiles lined showers, and a mysterious black gunk marred the floors. The director of housekeeping reported that the dining room was unsanitary. Overall, there was a critical lack of training, staff and supervision.

The inspectors tagged Landmark as deficient in 29 areas, including six that put residents in immediate jeopardy of serious harm and three where actual harm was found. The issues were so severe that the government slapped Landmark with a fine of over $319,000more than 29 times the average for a nursing home in 2021 − and suspended payments to the home from federal Medicaid and Medicare funds.

This excerpt from the July 3, 2021, state inspection report of Landmark of Louisville Rehabilitation and Nursing includes an interview with a nurse who found an injured resident. New York State attorney general's office

Persistent problems

But problems persisted. Five months later, inspectors levied six additional deficiencies of immediate jeopardy − the highest level − including more sexual abuse among residents and a certified nursing assistant pushing someone down, bruising the person’s back and hip.

Landmark is just one of the 58 facilities run by parent company Infinity Healthcare Management across five states. The government issued penalties to the company almost 4½ times the national average, according to bimonthly data that the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services first started to make available in late 2022. All told, Infinity paid nearly $10 million in fines since 2021, the highest among nursing home chains with fewer than 100 facilities.

Infinity Healthcare Management and its executives did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

Such sanctions are nothing new for Infinity or other for-profit nursing home chains that have dominated an industry long known for cutting corners in pursuit of profits for private owners. But this race to the bottom to extract profits is accelerating despite demands by government officials, health care experts and advocacy groups to protect the nation’s most vulnerable citizens.

To uncover the reasons why, The Conversation’s investigative unit Inquiry delved into the nursing home industry, where for-profit facilities make up more than 72% of the nation’s nearly 14,900 facilities. The probe, which paired an academic expert with an investigative reporter, used the most recent government data on ownership, facility information and penalties, combined with CMS data on affiliated entities for nursing homes.

The investigation revealed an industry that places a premium on cost cutting and big profits, with low staffing and poor quality, often to the detriment of patient well-being. Operating under weak and poorly enforced regulations with financially insignificant penalties, the for-profit sector fosters an environment where corners are frequently cut, compromising the quality of care and endangering patient health. Meanwhile, owners make the facilities look less profitable by siphoning money from the homes through byzantine networks of interconnected corporations. Federal regulators have neglected the problem as each year likely billions of dollars are funneled out of nursing homes through related parties and into owners’ pockets.

More trouble at midsize

Analyzing newly released government data, our investigation found that these problems are most pronounced in nursing homes like Infinity − midsize chains that operate between 11 and 100 facilities. This subsection of the industry has higher average fines per home, lower overall quality ratings, and are more likely to be tagged with resident abuse compared with both the larger and smaller networks. Indeed, while such chains account for about 39% of all facilities, they operate 11 of the 15 most-fined facilities.

With few impediments, private investors who own the midsize chains have quietly swooped in to purchase underperforming homes, expanding their holdings even further as larger chains divest and close facilities. As a result of the industry’s churn of facility ownership, over one fifth of the country’s nursing facilities changed ownership between 2016 and 2021, four times more changes than hospitals.

A 2023 report by Good Jobs First, a nonprofit watchdog, noted that a dozen of these chains in the midsize range have doubled or tripled in size while racking up fines averaging over $100,000 per facility since 2018. But unlike the large, multistate chains with easily recognizable names, the midsize networks slip through without the same level of public scrutiny, The Conversation’s investigations unit found.

“They are really bad, but the names − we don’t know these names,” said Toby Edelman, senior policy attorney with the Center for Medicare Advocacy, a nonprofit law organization.

“When we used to have those multistate chains, the facilities all had the same name, so you know what the quality is you’re getting,” she said. “It’s not that good − but at least you know what you’re getting.”

In response to The Conversation’s findings on nursing homes and request for an interview, a CMS spokesperson emailed a statement that said the CMS is “unwavering in its commitment to improve safety and quality of care for the more than 1.2 million residents receiving care in Medicare- and Medicaid-certified nursing homes.”

The statement pointed to data released by the oversight body on mergers, acquisitions, consolidations and changes of ownership in April 2023 along with additional ownership data released the following September. CMS also proposed a rule change that aims to increase transparency in nursing home ownership by collecting more information on facility owners and their affiliations.

“Our focus is on advancing implementable solutions that promote safe, high-quality care for residents and consider the challenging circumstances some long-term care facilities face,” the statement reads. “We believe the proposed requirements are achievable and necessary.”

CMS is slated to implement the disclosure rules in the fall and release the new data to the public later this year.

“We support transparency and accountability,” the American Health Care Association/National Center for Assisted Living, a trade organization representing the nursing home industry, wrote in response to The Conversation‘s request for comment. “But neither ownership nor line items on a budget sheet prove whether a nursing home is committed to its residents. Over the decades, we’ve found that strong organizations tend to have supportive and trusted leadership as well as a staff culture that empowers frontline caregivers to think critically and solve problems. These characteristics are not unique to a specific type or size of provider.”

It often takes years to improve a poor nursing home − or run one into the ground. The analysis of midsize chains shows that most owners have been associated with their current facilities for less than eight years, making it difficult to separate operators who have taken long-term investments in resident care from those who are looking to quickly extract money and resources before closing them down or moving on. These chains control roughly 41% of nursing home beds in the U.S., according to CMS’s provider data, making the lack of transparency especially ripe for abuse.

A churn of nursing home purchases even during the COVID-19 pandemic shows that investors view the sector as highly profitable, especially when staffing costs are kept low and fines for poor care can easily be covered by the money extracted from residents, their families and taxpayers.

“This is the model of their care: They come in, they understaff and they make their money,” said Sam Brooks, director of public policy at the Consumer Voice, a national resident advocacy organization. “Then they multiply it over a series of different facilities.”

Side-by-side pictures of different nursing home residents asleep with their heads near dishes of food
These pictures showing residents asleep in their food appeared in the 2022 New York attorney general’s lawsuit against The Villages of Orleans Health and Rehabilitation Center in Albion, N.Y. New York State attorney general's office

Investor race

The explosion of a billion-dollar private marketplace found its beginnings in government spending.

The adoption of Medicare and Medicaid in 1965 set loose a race among investors to load up on nursing homes, with a surge in for-profit homes gaining momentum because of a reliable stream of government payouts. By 1972, a mere seven years after the inception of the programs, a whopping 106 companies had rushed to Wall Street to sell shares in nursing home companies. And little wonder: They pulled in profits through their ownership of 18% of the industry’s beds, securing about a third of the hefty $3.2 billion of government cash.

The 1990s saw substantial expansion in for-profit nursing home chains, marked by a wave of acquisitions and mergers. At the same time, increasing difficulties emerged in the model for publicly traded chains. Shareholders increasingly demanded rapid growth, and researchers have found that the publicly traded chains tried to appease that hunger by reducing nursing staff and cutting corners on other measures meant to improve quality and safety.

“I began to suspect a possibly inherent contradiction between publicly traded and other large investor-operated nursing home companies and the prerequisites for quality care,” Paul R. Willging, former chief lobbyist for the industry, wrote in a 2007 letter to the editor of The New York Times. “For many investors … earnings growth, quarter after quarter, is often paramount. Long-term investments in quality can work at cross purposes with a mandate for an unending progression of favorable earnings reports.”

One example of that clash can be found at the Ensign Group, founded in 1999 as a private chain of five facilities. Using a strategy of acquiring struggling nursing homes, the company went public in 2007 with more than 60 facilities. What followed was a year-after-year acquisition binge and a track record of growing profits almost every year. Yet the company kept staffing levels below the national average and levels recommended by experts. Its facilities had higher than average inspection deficiencies and higher COVID infection rates. Since 2021, it has racked up more than $6.5 million in penalties.

Ensign did not respond to requests for comment.

Even with that kind of expense cutting, not all publicly traded nursing homes survived as the costs of providing poor care added up. Residents sued over mistreatment. Legal fees and settlements ate into profits, shareholders grumbled, and executives searched for a way out of this Catch-22.

Recognizing the long-term potential for profit growth, private investors snapped up publicly traded for-profit chains, reducing the previous levels of public transparency and oversight. Between 2000 and 2017, 1,674 nursing homes were acquired by private-equity firms in 128 unique deals out of 18,485 facilities. But the same poor-quality problems persisted. Research shows that after snagging a big chain, private investors tended to follow the same playbook: They rebrand the company, increase corporate control and dump unprofitable homes to other investment groups willing to take shortcuts for profit.

Multiple academic studies show the results, highlighting the lower staffing and quality in for-profit homes compared with nonprofits and government-run facilities. Elderly residents staying long term in nursing homes owned by private investment groups experienced a significant uptick in trips to the emergency department and hospitalizations between 2013 and 2017, translating into higher costs for Medicare.

Overall, private-equity investors wreak havoc on nursing homes, slashing registered nurse hours per resident day by 12%, outpacing other for-profit facilities. The aftermath is grim, with a daunting 14% surge in the deficiency score index, a standardized metric for determining issues with facilities, according to a U.S. Department of Health and Human Services report.

The human toll comes in death and suffering. A study updated in 2023 by the National Bureau of Economic Research calculated that 22,500 additional deaths over a 12-year span were attributable to private-equity ownership, equating to about 172,400 lost life years. The calculations also showed that private-equity ownership was responsible for a 6.2% reduction in mobility, an 8.5% increase in ulcer development and a 10.5% uptick in pain intensity.

Hiding in complexity

Exposing the identities of who should be held responsible for such anguish poses a formidable task. Private investors in nursing home chains often employ a convoluted system of limited liability corporations, related companies and family relationships to obscure who controls the nursing homes.

These adjustments are crafted to minimize liability, capitalize on favorable tax policies, diminish regulatory scrutiny and disguise nursing home profitability. In this investigation, entities at every level of involvement with a nursing home denied ownership, even though the same people controlled each organization.

A rule put in place in 2023 by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services requires the identification of all private-equity and real estate investment trust investors in a facility and the release of all related party names. But this hasn’t been enough to surface the players and relationships. More than half of ownership data provided to CMS is incomplete across all facilities, according to a March 2024 analysis of the newly released data.

Complicated graphic with 21 intertwined items
Nursing home investors drained more than $18 million out of a single facility through a complex web of related party transactions. New York State attorney general's office

Even the land under the nursing home is often owned by someone else. In 2021, publicly traded or private real estate investment trusts held a sizable chunk of the approximately $120 billion of nursing home real estate. As with homes owned by private-equity investors, quality measures collapse after REITs get involved, with facilities witnessing a 7% decline in registered nurses’ hours per resident day and an alarming 14% ascent in the deficiency score index. It’s a blatant pattern of disruption, leaving facilities and care standards in a dire state.

Part of that quality collapse comes from the way these investment entities make their money. REITs and their owners can drain cash out of the nursing homes in a number of different ways. The standard tactic for grabbing the money is known as a triple-net lease, where the REIT buys the property then leases it back to the nursing home, often at exorbitant rates. Although the nursing home then lacks possession of the property, it still gets slammed with costs typically shouldered by an owner − real estate taxes, insurance, maintenance and more. Topping it off, the facilities then must typically pay annual rent hikes.

A second tactic that REITs use involves a contracting façade that serves no purpose other than enriching the owners of the trusts. Since triple-net lease agreements prohibit REITs from taking profits from operating the facilities, the investors create a subsidiary to get past that hurdle. The subsidiary then contracts with a nursing home operator − often owned or controlled by another related party − and then demands a fee for providing operational guidance. The use of REITs for near-risk-free profits from nursing homes has proven to be an ever-growing technique, and the midsize chains, which our investigation found generally provided the worst care, grew in their reliance on REITs during the pandemic.

“When these REITs start coming in … nursing homes are saddled with these enormous rents, and then they wind up going out of business,” said Richard Mollot, executive director of the Long-Term Care Community Coalition, a nonprofit organization that advocates for better care at nursing homes. “It’s no longer a viable facility.”

The churn of nursing home purchases by midsize chains underscores investors’ perception of the sector’s profitability, particularly when staffing expenses are minimized and penalties for subpar care can be offset by money extracted through related transactions and payments from residents, their families and taxpayers. Lawsuits can drag out over years, and in the worst case, if a facility is forced to close, its land and other assets can be sold to minimize the financial loss.

Take Brius Healthcare, a name that resonates with a disturbing cadence in the world of nursing home ownership. A search of the federal database for nursing home ownership and penalties shows that Brius was responsible for 32 facilities as of the start of 2024, but the true number is closer to 80, according to BriusWatch.org, which tracks violations. At the helm of this still midsize network stands Shlomo Rechnitz, who became a billionaire in part by siphoning from government payments to his facilities scattered across California, according to a federal and state lawsuit.

In lawsuits and regulators’ criticisms, Rechnitz’s homes have been associated with tales of abuse, as well as several lawsuits alleging terrible care. The track record was so bad that, in the summer of 2014, then-California Attorney General Kamala Harris filed an emergency motion to block Rechnitz from acquiring 19 facilities, writing that he was “a serial violator of rules within the skilled nursing industry” and was “not qualified to assume such an important role.”

Yet, Rechnitz’s empire in California surged forward, scooping up more facilities that drained hundreds of millions of federal and state funds as they racked up pain and profit. The narrative played out at Windsor Redding Care Center in Redding, California. Rechnitz bought it from a competing nursing home chain and attempted to obtain a license to operate the facility. But in 2016, the California Department of Public Health refused the application, citing a staggering 265 federal regulatory violations across his other nursing homes over just three years.

According to court filings, Rechnitz formed a joint venture with other investors who in turn held the license. Rechnitz, through the Brius joint venture, became the unlicensed owner and operator of Windsor Redding.

Brius carved away at expenses, slashing staff and other care necessities, according to a 2022 California lawsuit. One resident was left to sit in her urine and feces for hours at a time. Overwhelmed staff often did not respond to her call light, so once she instead climbed out of bed unassisted, fell and fractured her hip. Other negligence led to pressure ulcers, and when she was finally transferred to a hospital, she was suffering from sepsis. She was not alone in her suffering. Numerous other residents experienced an unrelenting litany of injuries and illnesses, including pressure ulcers, urinary tract infections from poor hygiene, falls, and skin damage from excess moisture, according to the lawsuit.

In 2023, California moved forward with licensing two dozen of Rechnitz’s facilities with an agreement that included a two-year monitoring period, right before statewide reforms were set to take effect. The reforms don’t prevent existing owners like Rechnitz from continuing to run a nursing home without a license, but they do prevent new operators from doing so.

“We’re seeing more of that, I think, where you have a proliferation of really bad operators that keep being provided homes,” said Brooks, the director of public policy at the Consumer Voice. “There’s just so much money to be made here for unscrupulous people, and it just happens all the time.”

Rechnitz did not respond to multiple requests for comment. Bruis also did not respond.

Perhaps no other chain showcases the havoc that can be caused by one individual’s acquisition of multiple nursing homes than Skyline Health Care. The company’s owner, Joseph Schwartz, parlayed the sale of his insurance business into ownership of 90 facilities between mid-2016 and December 2017, according to a federal indictment. He ran the company out of an office above a New Jersey pizzeria and at its peak managed facilities in 11 states.

Schwartz went all-in on cost cutting, and by early 2018, residents were suffering from the shortage of staff. The company wasn’t paying its bills or its workers. More than a dozen lawsuits piled up. Last year, Schwartz was arrested and faced charges in federal district court in New Jersey for his role in a $38 million payroll tax scheme. In 2024, Schwartz pleaded guilty to his role in the fraud scheme. He is awaiting sentencing, where he faces a year in prison along with paying at least $5 million in restitution.

Skyline collapsed and disrupted thousands of lives. Some states took over facilities; others closed, forcing residents to relocate and throwing families into chaos. The case also highlights the ease with which some bad operators can snap up nursing homes with little difficulty, with federal and state governments allowing ownership changes with little or no review.

Schwartz’s lawyer did not respond to requests for comment.

Not that nursing homes have much to fear in the public perception of their reputation for quality. CMS uses what is known as the Five-Star Quality Rating System, designed to help consumers compare nursing homes to find one that provides good care. Theoretically, nursing homes with five-star ratings are supposed to be exceptional, while those with one-star ratings are deemed the worst. But research shows that nursing homes can game the system, with the result that a top star rating might reflect little more than a facility’s willingness to cheat.

A star rating is composed of three parts: The score from a government inspection and the facility’s self-reports of staffing and quality. This means that what the nursing homes say about themselves can boost the star rating of facilities even if they have poor inspection results.

Multiple studies have highlighted a concerning trend: Some nursing homes, especially for-profit ones, inflate their self-reported measures, resulting in a disconnect from actual inspection findings. Notably, research suggests that for-profit nursing homes, driven by significant financial motives, are more likely to engage in this practice of inflating their self-reported assessments.

At bottom, the elderly and their families seeking quality care unknowingly find themselves in an impossible situation with for-profit nursing homes: Those facilities tend to provide the worst quality, and the only measure available for consumers to determine where they will be treated well can be rigged. The result is the transformation of an industry meant to care for the most vulnerable into a profit-driven circus.

Close-up of an elderly woman's head leaning on her hand
The for-profit nursing home sector is growing, and it places a premium on cost cutting and big profits, which has led to low staffing and patient neglect and mistreatment. picture alliance via Getty Images

The pandemic

Nothing more clearly exposed the problems rampant in nursing homes than the pandemic. Throughout that time, nursing homes reported that almost 2 million residents had infections and 170,000 died.

No one should have been surprised by the mass death in nursing homes − the warning signs of what was to come had been visible for years. Between 2013 and 2017, infection control was the most frequently cited deficiency in nursing homes, with 40% of facilities cited each year and 82% cited at least once in the five-year period. Almost half were cited over multiple consecutive years for these deficiencies − if fixed, one of the big causes of the widespread transmission of COVID in these facilities would have been eliminated.

But shortly after coming into office in 2017, the Trump administration weakened what was already a deteriorating system to regulate nursing homes. The administration directed regulators to issue one-time fines against nursing homes for violations of federal rules rather than for the full time they were out of compliance. This shift meant that even nursing homes with severe infractions lasting weeks were exempted from fines surpassing the maximum per-instance penalty of $20,965.

Even that near-worthless level of regulation was not feeble enough for the industry, so lobbyists pressed for less. In response, just a few months before COVID emerged in China, the Trump administration implemented new regulations that effectively abolished a mandate for each to hire a full-time infection control expert, instead recommending outside consultants for the job.

The perfect storm had been reached, with no experts required to be on site, prepared to combat any infection outbreaks. On Jan. 20, 2020 − just 186 days after the change in rules on infection control − the CDC reported that the first laboratory-confirmed case of COVID had been found at a nursing home in Washington state.

The least prepared in this explosion of disease were the for-profit nursing homes, compared with nonprofit and government facilities. Research from the University of California at San Francisco found those facilities were linked to higher numbers of COVID cases. For-profits not only had fewer nurses on staff but also high numbers of infection-control deficiencies and lower compliance with health regulations.

Even as the United States went through the crisis, some owners of midsize chains continued snapping up nursing homes. For example, two Brooklyn businessmen named Simcha Hyman and Naftali Zanziper were going on a nursing home buying spree through their private-equity company, the Portopiccolo Group. Despite poor ratings in their previously owned facilities, nothing blocked the acquisitions.

One such facility was a struggling nursing home in North Carolina now known as The Citadel Salisbury. Following the traditional pattern forged by private investors in the industry, the new owners set up a convoluted network of business entities and then used them to charge the nursing home for services and property. A 2021 federal lawsuit of many plaintiffs claimed that they deliberately kept the facility understaffed and undersupplied to maximize profit.

Within months of the first case of COVID reported in America, The Citadel Salisbury experienced the largest nursing home outbreak in the state. The situation was so dire that on April 20, 2020, the local medical director of the emergency room took to the local newspaper to express his distress, revealing that he had pressed the facility’s leadership and the local health department to address the known shortcomings.

The situation was “a blueprint for exactly what not to do in a crisis,” medical director John Bream wrote. “Patients died at the Citadel without family members being notified. Families were denied the ability to have one last meaningful interaction with their family. Employees were wrongly denied personal protective equipment. There has been no transparency.”

After a series of scathing inspection reports, the facility finally closed in the spring of 2022. As for the federal lawsuit, court documents show that a tentative agreement was reached in 2023. But the case dragged out for nearly three years, and one of the plaintiffs, Sybil Rummage, died while seeking accountability through the court.

Still, the pandemic had been a time of great success for Hyman and Zanziper. At the end of 2020, they owned more than 70 facilities. By 2021, their portfolio had exploded to more than 120. Now, according to data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Hyman and Zanziper are associated with at least 131 facilities and have the highest amount of total fines recorded by the agency for affiliated entities, totaling nearly $12 million since 2021. And their average fine per facility, as calculated by CMS, is more than twice the national average at almost $90,000.

In a written statement, Portopiccolo Group spokesperson John Collins disputed that the facilities had skimped on care and argued that they were not managed by the firm. “We hire experienced, local health care teams who are in charge of making all on-the-ground decisions and are committed to putting residents first.” He added that the number of facilities given by CMS was inaccurate but declined to say how many are connected to its network of affiliates or owned by Hyman and Zanziper.

With the nearly 170,000 resident deaths from COVID and many related fatalities from isolation and neglect in nursing homes, in February 2022 President Biden announced an initiative aimed at improving the industry. In addition to promising to set a minimum staffing standard, the initiative is focused on improving ownership and financial transparency.

“As Wall Street firms take over more nursing homes, quality in those homes has gone down and costs have gone up. That ends on my watch,” Biden said during his 2022 State of the Union address. “Medicare is going to set higher standards for nursing homes and make sure your loved ones get the care they deserve and expect.”

President Biden sitting at a desk signing with a crowd gathered around him
President Joe Biden signed an executive order on April 18, 2023, that directed the secretary of health and human services to consider actions that would build on nursing home minimum staffing standards and improve staff retention. Nathan Posner/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Still, the current trajectory of actions appears to fall short of what’s needed. While penalties against facilities have sharply increased under Biden, some of the Trump administration’s weak regulations have not been replaced.

A rule proposed by CMS in September 2023 and released for review in March 2024 would require states to report what percentage of Medicaid funding is used to pay direct care workers and support staff and would require an RN on duty 24/7. It would also require a minimum of three hours of skilled staffing care per patient per day. But the three-hour minimum is substantially lower than the 4.1 hours of skilled staffing for nursing home residents suggested by CMS over two decades ago.

The requirements are also lower than the 3.8 average nursing staff hours already employed by U.S. facilities.

The current administration has also let stand the Trump administration reversal of an Obama rule that banned binding arbitration agreements in nursing homes.

It breaks a village

The Villages of Orleans Health and Rehabilitation Center in Albion, New York, was, by any reasonable measure, broken. Court records show that on some days there was no nurse and no medication for the more than 100 elderly residents. Underpaid staff spent their own cash for soap to keep residents clean. At times, the home didn’t feed its frail occupants.

Meanwhile, according to a 2022 lawsuit filed by the New York attorney general, riches were siphoned out of the nursing home and into the pockets of the official owner, Bernard Fuchs, as well as assorted friends, business associates and family. The lawsuit says $18.7 million flowed from the facility to entities owned by a group of men who controlled the Village’s operations.

Although these men own various nursing homes, Medicare records show few connections between them, despite them all being investors in Comprehensive Healthcare Management, which provided administrative services to the Villages. Either they or their families were also owners of Telegraph Realty, which leased what was once the Villages’ own property back to the facility at rates the New York attorney general deemed exorbitant, predatory and a sham.

So it goes in the world of nursing home ownership, where overlapping entities and investors obscure the interrelationships between them to such a degree that Medicare itself is never quite sure who owns what.

Glenn Jones, a lawyer representing Comprehensive Healthcare Management, declined to comment on the pending litigation, but he forwarded a court document his law firm filed that labels the allegations brought by the New York attorney general “unfounded” and reliant on “a mere fraction” of its residents.

Side-by-side pictures of a man in a wheelchair with glasses in November, 2019 and the same man looking less alert, unshaven and with an eye wound in December, 2019
These pictures of the same resident one month apart at the Holliswood Center for Rehabilitation and Healthcare in Queens appeared in a 2023 New York attorney general lawsuit against 13 LLCs and 14 individuals. The group owns multiple nursing homes and allegedly neglected residents, while owners siphoned Medicare and Medicaid money into their own pockets. New York attorney general's office

The shadowy structure of ownership and related party transactions plays an enormous role in how investors enrich themselves, even as the nursing homes they control struggle financially. Compounding the issue, the figures reported by nursing homes regarding payments to related parties frequently diverge from the disclosures made by the related parties themselves.

As an illustration of the problems, consider Pruitt Health, a midsize chain with 87 nursing homes spread across Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Florida that had low overall federal quality ratings and about $2 million in penalties. A report by The National Consumer Voice For Quality Long-Term Care, a consumer advocacy group, shows that Pruitt disclosed general related party costs nearing $482 million from 2018 to 2020. Yet in that same time frame, Pruitt reported payments to specific related parties amounting to about $570 million, indicating a $90 million excess. Its federal disclosures offer no explanation for the discrepancy. Meanwhile, the company reported $77 million in overall losses on its homes.

The same pattern holds in the major chains such as the Cleveland, Tennessee-based Life Care Centers of America, which operates roughly 200 nursing homes across 27 states, according to the report. Life Care’s financial disbursements are fed into a diverse spectrum of related entities, including management, staffing, insurance and therapy companies, all firmly under the umbrella of the organization’s ownership. In fiscal year 2018, the financial commitment to these affiliated entities reached $386,449,502; over the three-year period from 2018 to 2020, Life Care’s documented payments to such parties hit an eye-popping $1.25 billion.

Pruitt Health and Life Care Centers did not respond to requests for comment.

Overall, 77% of US nursing homes reported $11 billion in related-party transactions in 2019 − nearly 10% of total net revenues − but the data is unaudited and unverified. The facilities are not required to provide any details of what specific services were provided by the related parties, or what were the specific profits and administrative costs, creating a lack of transparency regarding expenses that are ambiguously categorized under generic labels such as “maintenance.” Significantly, there is no mandate to disclose whether any of these costs exceed fair market value.

What that means is that nursing home owners can profit handsomely through related parties even if their facilities are being hit with repeated fines for providing substandard care.

“What we would consider to be a big penalty really doesn’t matter because there’s so much money coming in,” said Mollot of the Long-Term Care Community Coalition. “If the facility fails, so what? It doesn’t matter. They pulled out the resources.’’

Hiding profit

Ultimately, experts say, this ability to drain cash out of nursing homes makes it almost impossible for anyone to assess the profitability of these facilities based on their public financial filings, known as cost reports.

"The profit margins (for nursing homes) also should be taken with a grain of salt in the cost reports,” said Dr. R. Tamara Konetzka, a University of Chicago professor of public health sciences, at a recent meeting of the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission. “If you sell the real estate to a REIT or to some other entity, and you pay sort of inflated rent back to make your profit margins look lower, and then you recoup that profit because it’s a related party, we’re not going to find that in the cost reports.”

That ability to hide profits is key to nursing homes’ ability to block regulations to improve quality of care and to demand greater government payments. For decades, the industry’s refrain has been that cuts in reimbursements or requirements to increase staffing will drive facilities into bankruptcy; already, they claim, half of all nursing homes are teetering on the edge of collapse, the result, they say, of inadequate Medicaid rates. All in all, the industry reports that less than 3% of their revenue goes to earnings.

But that does not include any of the revenue pulled out of the homes to boost profits of related parties controlled by the same owners pleading poverty. And this tactic is only one of several ways that the nursing home industry disguises its true profits, giving it the power to plead poverty to an unknowing government.

Under the regulations, only certain nursing home expenses are reimbursable, such as money spent for care. Many others − unreasonable payments to the headquarters of chains, luxury items, and fees for lobbyists and lawyers − are disallowed after Medicare reviews the cost reports. But by that time, the government has already reimbursed the nursing homes for those expenses − and none of those revenues have to be returned.

Data indicates that owners also profit by overcharging nursing homes for services and leases provided by related entities. A March 2024 study from Lehigh University and the University of California, Los Angeles shows that costs were inflated when nursing home owners changed from independent contractors to businesses owned or controlled directly or indirectly by the same people. Overall, spending on real estate increased 20.4%, and spending on management increased 24.6% when the businesses were affiliated, the research showed.

Nursing homes also claim that noncash depreciation cuts into their profits. Those expenses, which show up only in accounting ledgers, assume that assets such as equipment and facilities are gradually decreasing in value and ultimately will need to be replaced.

That might be reasonable if the chains purchased new items once their value depreciated to zero, but that is not always true. A 2004 report by the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission found that the depreciation claimed by health care companies, including nursing homes, may not reflect actual capital expenditures or the actual market value.

If disallowed expenses and noncash depreciation were not included, profit margins for the nursing home industry would jump to 8.8%, far more than the 3% it claims. And given that these numbers all come from nursing home cost reports submitted to the government, they may underestimate the profits even more. Audited cost reports are not required, and the Government Accountability Office has found that CMS does little to ensure the numbers are correct and complete.

This lack of basic oversight essentially gives dishonest nursing home owners the power to grab more money from Medicare and Medicaid while being empowered to claim that their financials prove they need more.

“They face no repercussions,” Brooks of Consumer Voice said, commenting on the current state of nursing home operations and their unscrupulous owners. “That’s why these people are here. It’s a bonanza to them.”

Ultimately, experts say, finding ways to force nursing homes to provide quality care has remained elusive. Michael Gelder, former senior health policy adviser to then-Gov. Pat Quinn of Illinois, learned that brutal lesson in 2010 as head of a task force formed by Quinn to investigate nursing home quality. That group successfully pushed a new law, but Gelder now says his success failed to protect this country’s most vulnerable citizens.

“I was perhaps naively convinced that someone like myself being in the right place at the right time with enough resources could really fix this problem,” he said. “I think we did the absolute best we could, and the best that had ever been done in modern history up to that point. But it wasn’t enough. It’s a battle every generation has to fight.”

Click here to learn more about how some existing tools can address problems with for-profit nursing homes.

Sean Campbell is an adjunct assistant professor at Columbia University and a contributing writer at the Garrison Project, an independent news organization that focuses on mass incarceration and criminal justice.

Harrington is an advisory board member of the nonprofit Veteran's Health Policy Institute and a board member of the nonprofit Center for Health Information and Policy. Harrington served as an expert witness on nursing home litigation cases by residents against facilities owned or operated by Brius and Shlomo Rechnitz in the past and in 2022. She also served as an expert witness in a case against The Citadel Salisbury in North Carolina in 2021.

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COVID-19 vaccines: CDC says people ages 65 and up should get a shot this spring – a geriatrician explains why it’s vitally important

As you get older, you’re at higher risk of severe infection and your immunity declines faster after vaccination.

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Even if you got a COVID-19 shot last fall, the spring shot is still essential for the 65 and up age group. whyframestudio/iStock via Getty Images Plus

In my mind, the spring season will always be associated with COVID-19.

In spring 2020, the federal government declared a nationwide emergency, and life drastically changed. Schools and businesses closed, and masks and social distancing were mandated across much of the nation.

In spring 2021, after the vaccine rollout, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said those who were fully vaccinated against COVID-19 could safely gather with others who were vaccinated without masks or social distancing.

In spring 2022, with the increased rates of vaccination across the U.S., the universal indoor mask mandate came to an end.

In spring 2023, the federal declaration of COVID-19 as a public health emergency ended.

Now, as spring 2024 fast approaches, the CDC reminds Americans that even though the public health emergency is over, the risks associated with COVID-19 are not. But those risks are higher in some groups than others. Therefore, the agency recommends that adults age 65 and older receive an additional COVID-19 vaccine, which is updated to protect against a recently dominant variant and is effective against the current dominant strain.

You have a 54% less chance of being hospitalized with severe COVID-19 if you’ve had the vaccine.

Increased age means increased risk

The shot is covered by Medicare. But do you really need yet another COVID-19 shot?

As a geriatrician who exclusively cares for people over 65 years of age, this is a question I’ve been asked many times over the past few years.

In early 2024, the short answer is yes.

Compared with other age groups, older adults have the worst outcomes with a COVID-19 infection. Increased age is, simply put, a major risk factor.

In January 2024, the average death rate from COVID-19 for all ages was just under 3 in 100,000 people. But for those ages 65 to 74, it was higher – about 5 for every 100,000. And for people 75 and older, the rate jumped to nearly 30 in 100,000.

Even now, four years after the start of the pandemic, people 65 years old and up are about twice as likely to die from COVID-19 than the rest of the population. People 75 years old and up are 10 times more likely to die from COVID-19.

Vaccination is still essential

These numbers are scary. But the No. 1 action people can take to decrease their risk is to get vaccinated and keep up to date on vaccinations to ensure top immune response. Being appropriately vaccinated is as critical in 2024 as it was in 2021 to help prevent infection, hospitalization and death from COVID-19.

The updated COVID-19 vaccine has been shown to be safe and effective, with the benefits of vaccination continuing to outweigh the potential risks of infection.

The CDC has been observing side effects on the more than 230 million Americans who are considered fully vaccinated with what it calls the “most intense safety monitoring in U.S. history.” Common side effects soon after receiving the vaccine include discomfort at the injection site, transient muscle or joint aches, and fever.

These symptoms can be alleviated with over-the-counter pain medicines or a cold compress to the site after receiving the vaccine. Side effects are less likely if you are well hydrated when you get your vaccine.

Getting vaccinated is at the top of the list of the new recommendations from the CDC.

Long COVID and your immune system

Repeat infections carry increased risk, not just from the infection itself, but also for developing long COVID as well as other illnesses. Recent evidence shows that even mild to moderate COVID-19 infection can negatively affect cognition, with changes similar to seven years of brain aging. But being up to date with COVID-19 immunization has a fourfold decrease in risk of developing long COVID symptoms if you do get infected.


Read more: Mounting research shows that COVID-19 leaves its mark on the brain, including with significant drops in IQ scores


Known as immunosenescence, this puts people at higher risk of infection, including severe infection, and decreased ability to maintain immune response to vaccination as they get older. The older one gets – over 75, or over 65 with other medical conditions – the more immunosenescence takes effect.

All this is why, if you’re in this age group, even if you received your last COVID-19 vaccine in fall 2023, the spring 2024 shot is still essential to boost your immune system so it can act quickly if you are exposed to the virus.

The bottom line: If you’re 65 or older, it’s time for another COVID-19 shot.

Laurie Archbald-Pannone receives funding from PRIME, Accredited provider of medical and professional education; supported by an independent educational grant from GlaxoSmithKline, LLC as Course Director "Advancing Patient Engagement to Protect Aging Adults from Vaccine-Preventable Diseases: An Implementation Science Initiative to Activate and Sustain Participation in Recommended Vaccinations”

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