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China Selling Treasuries And Mercedes Selling Cars

China Selling Treasuries And Mercedes Selling Cars

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

The Foreign Holders of U.S. Treasuries as of July…

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China Selling Treasuries And Mercedes Selling Cars

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

The Foreign Holders of U.S. Treasuries as of July 31st was released yesterday.

Chinese holdings dropped by $13.6 billion. That seems more in line with “run-off” than actual selling.

I don’t have China’s exact holdings in front of me, but generally foreign central banks tend to hold shorter maturity treasuries on average (it is a dollar/reserve/currency play, not a yield/duration play).

This seems consistent with a country that is having to spend some money to support their economy and doesn’t seem to indicate aggressive selling. Having said that, I think we can safely say, that for the coming months (if not longer) this once net buyer of treasuries will remain a net seller.

The offshore Yuan is hovering just below all-time lows relative to the dollar. My expectation remains that this will continue to drift lower versus the dollar as their central bank needs to be easy relative to the Fed, but more importantly, it will act to support selling Chinese brands globally.

I found this interview on Bloomberg TV yesterday with the Mercedes-Benz CEO fascinating. It starts with the host trying to delve into trade issues between China and Europe. The CEO gives some very good (and politically correct) responses in regards to free trade, open markets, etc. The part of the interview that fascinated me, was his discussion of how his company discovered a long time ago, that they could and should sell autos outside of Germany. He talks about the Japanese and Korean auto makers moving beyond their borders in the past – i.e. it is a natural progression to sell your brands beyond your borders.

He seems very prepared for the competition, though he does repeat the need for a “level playing field” and his company’s success selling into China (and their plans to continue to develop products that sell well there).

I think it is a good take on the Made By China strategy China is likely to employ to get out of their current economic doldrums. The CEO seems more optimistic about a level playing field than I am, but maybe that is natural as he is a public figure speaking on live TV.  Virtually all of Academy’s Geopolitical Intelligence Group continues to see friction with China. While we might like to isolate that friction to high end chips, AI and military technology, it seems difficult to ringfence those areas, while having “normal” relationships in other areas of trade.

In any case, expect a lot more headlines about Chinese companies selling into foreign markets and what access companies outside of China get, in terms of selling their products into China.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/19/2023 - 11:25

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As yen weakens and interest peaks, Bank of Japan balances on a policy precipice

Quick Take The Bank of Japan (BOJ) stands at a critical juncture, striving to maintain a delicate balance amid a changing economic landscape. Recent data…

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Quick Take

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) stands at a critical juncture, striving to maintain a delicate balance amid a changing economic landscape. Recent data shows that the 10-year yield, which the BOJ has endeavored to keep below 1%, has touched 0.8, a peak unseen since 2013. Simultaneously, the BOJ has labored not to let the Yen weaken, yet it continues to be pressured as it drops further against the US dollar, crossing the 150 mark for the first time in over a year.

There is burgeoning speculation about possible BOJ interventions in these market movements. As the central bank continues to uphold negative interest rates, a shift towards positive rates might become inevitable in the foreseeable future. It’s a precarious fulcrum of financial strategies that the BOJ is balancing on, with market tempests stirring on one side and the stability of the national currency on the other.

This scenario highlights the intricate dynamics of monetary policies and the profound impact they can have on both national and global economies. A closer look at the situation illuminates the complexities in the BOJ’s policy decisions and the broader implications on the financial landscape.

JPY: (Source: Trading View)

The post As yen weakens and interest peaks, Bank of Japan balances on a policy precipice appeared first on CryptoSlate.

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Poland, Austria, & Czechia Introduce Temporary Border-Checks With Slovakia To Curb Illegal Migration

Poland, Austria, & Czechia Introduce Temporary Border-Checks With Slovakia To Curb Illegal Migration

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix…

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Poland, Austria, & Czechia Introduce Temporary Border-Checks With Slovakia To Curb Illegal Migration

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Poland, Austria and Czechia will all introduce random checks at the countries’ borders with Slovakia from midnight on Wednesday following an influx of illegal immigration.

Temporary checks will be conducted along the length of the border for an initial 10-day period until Oct. 13.

They will focus specifically on road and railway border crossings, although, pedestrians and cyclists may also be asked for documentation. Anyone within the vicinity of the border may be requested to identify themselves.

“The numbers of illegal migrants to the EU are starting to grow again,” said Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala following the announcement. “We don’t take the situation lightly.”

“Citizens need a valid passport or identity card to cross the border,” the Czech Interior Ministry added.

The Czech policy would also be adopted by neighboring Austria, the country’s Interior Minister Gerhard Karner confirmed.

Poland had already announced its intention to reintroduce checks on the Slovak border with the number of migrants along the Balkans migration route continuing to surge. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said last week he was “instructing Minister of Interior Mariusz Kamiński to check on buses, coaches, and cars crossing the border when it is suspected there could be illegal migrants on board.”

“In recent weeks, we detected and detained 551 illegal migrants at the border with Slovakia. This situation causes us to take decisive action,” Kaminski added.

Slovak caretaker Prime Minister Ludovit Odor acknowledged the growing issue of illegal migration in his country but insisted that the problem needs a European solution rather than individual nations restricting border access.

He claimed that the decision by the three neighboring countries had been fueled by the Polish government, which is involved in a tightly contested election campaign, with Poles heading to voting booths on Oct. 15.

“The whole thing has been triggered by Poland, where an election will soon take place, and the Czech Republic has joined in,” Odor said.

Slovakia revealed last month that the number of illegal migrants detained by its authorities this year had soared nine-fold to over 27,000. The majority of detainees comprise young men from the Middle East using the Balkan migratory route through Serbia as they seek to migrate to northwestern Europe.

The winner of Sunday’s general election in Slovakia, former Prime Minister Robert Fico, has vowed to tackle the issue more robustly by promising to reintroduce border checks with neighboring Hungary.

“It will not be a pretty picture,” Fico told journalists as he threatened to use force to dispel illegal migrants detected on Slovak territory.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/04/2023 - 02:00

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EU Wants To Pay Off Hungary To The Tune Of €13BN So Orban Doesn’t Veto Ukraine Aid

EU Wants To Pay Off Hungary To The Tune Of €13BN So Orban Doesn’t Veto Ukraine Aid

Hungary’s Viktor Orbán has long been an opponent of…

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EU Wants To Pay Off Hungary To The Tune Of €13BN So Orban Doesn't Veto Ukraine Aid

Hungary's Viktor Orbán has long been an opponent of the mainstay of EU policy on Ukraine, having also persistently criticized Kiev for discrimination against Hungarian minorities, and demanding that a 2017 law restricting the use of minority languages be changed. He's also refused to ratify Sweden's entry into NATO.

Orbán has further throughout the conflict stood against policies which escalate against Moscow, and has constantly warned against stumbling into a WW3 scenario involving direct NATO-Russia clash. He told Tucker Carlson in a recent interview that "the Third World War сould be knocking on our door so we have to be very careful." With Budapest having been a consistent thorn in the side of the EU, Brussels now wants to pay the Hungarians off.

AFP/Getty Images

"The European Commission is preparing to unfreeze around €13 billion in funds for Hungary to try to avoid Prime Minister Viktor Orbán vetoing EU aid for Ukraine, in a move likely to draw criticism from the European Parliament," Politico reports Tuesday.

"The Commission needs the unanimous backing of the bloc's 27 countries for an update to the EU’s long-term budget, which includes a €50 billion funding pot for Ukraine," the report adds.

Akin to what's currently going down in Washington with a group of Republicans holding up Ukraine funding, Brussels may soon have its own Ukraine aid blockage problem. EU aid for Kiev which was previously approved runs out in December, hence the urgency for EU leadership in wanting to push through a new package.

A week ago, Orbán gave a speech declaring Hungary will no longer support Ukraine in any way unless certain significant policies are changed both in Kiev and in the European Union.

He stressed in the words given before parliament that "Hungary is doing everything for peace" but that "unfortunately the Russian-Ukrainian war continues, tens of thousands of people are victims." Thus, he continued, "Diplomats must take control back from the hands of the soldiers, otherwise it will be in vain for women to wait for their sons and fathers and husbands to come home."

The Hungarian leader has stood against ratcheting Western sanctions on Moscow, instead choosing to maintain a generally positive diplomatic relationship with the Kremlin.

He also a week ago charged that Kiev and its backers have cheated Budapest by "Ukrainian grain dumping" into his country. He had also laid out, per The Hill:

... that he was protesting a 2017 law in Ukraine that limits ethnic Hungarians from speaking their own language, particularly in schools and said Hungary would not support Ukraine on international issues "until the previous laws are restored."

Needless to say EU officials are panicking, and are readying a lucrative quid pro quo with Hungary (based on freeing frozen funds related to the prior years' so-called "rule of law" punitive measures"), so that EU aid to Ukraine doesn't get blocked at a crucial moment that Washington funding is drying up.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/04/2023 - 02:45

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