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China lockdowns sink oil

China’s Covid-19 lockdown of Shanghai saw oil prices slump overnight, as investors fretted about more sweeping containment measures, which would negatively…

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China’s Covid-19 lockdown of Shanghai saw oil prices slump overnight, as investors fretted about more sweeping containment measures, which would negatively impact China’s energy consumption. Brent crude and WTI plummeted over 8.0% in overnight trading, although the rot had started earlier in the day in Asia. Oil’s volatility continues to make eye-watering viewing, but increasingly, the moves are being driven by falling liquidity in the futures markets, and the exchanges’ itchy trigger fingers on raising margins.

 

Also assisting the negative sentiment in energy markets, which is positive for the rest of us, is the first meeting in Turkey today by Ukrainian and Russian representatives. Markets are always keen to price in the prospect of a peace deal, if one could call it that, with what might be hints of concessions by both sides. Comments out from both sides though late in the day, suggest an agreement will be as elusive as ever. If there is a break though, watch out for sub-USD 100 Brent, a mad rush into the euro and European equities, and a slump in the US dollar and gold. Asian equities should catch a nice tailwind as well.

US yield curve causing jitters

US bond markets continue to send negative signals, with swaths of the yield curve flirting with inversion overnight. Unsurprisingly, financial stocks, along with energy producers, were two of the least favourite sectors in New York trading. For all the talk of the yield curve signalling a recession, equity markets continue their recovery, led by tech overnight, thanks to a Tesla share split announcement. A cynic could argue that given how far the Fed was behind the “transitory” inflation curve, they would also make a dog’s breakfast of sorting the mess out, accidentally tipping the US economy into a recession.

 

Analysts seem to be in a race to price in 0.50% hikes by the FOMC now, in stark contrast to the end of December. I’m waiting for the 0.75% predictions to start if this Friday’s US Non-Farm Payrolls is particularly strong. The pressure is mostly being felt in the 3-month to 10-year part of the curve, hence the inversions, but I do believe that there is still plenty of room for the curve as a whole to move higher as the Fed plays catchup. Eventually, that should weigh on equities.

 

Threats of higher US rates are making themselves felt most noticeably in Japan, where the USD/JPY rose almost 300 points overnight to 125.00 before falling to 123.90. The Bank of Japan didn’t get any bang for its buck yesterday, placing an unlimited bid in the 10-year JGB market to cap yields at the top of the acceptable range at 0.25%. That bid has been extended until tomorrow. Meanwhile, Japanese officials have gained some temporary respite by making USD/JPY comments this morning and oil falling overnight. The yen’s woes will likely be reflected elsewhere in Asia this year, where regional central banks appear happy to accept inflation as the price of growth. They have bulging currency reserves. It is not at all clear though, whether they will spend them to prop up their national currencies.

 

Australia releases its federal budget this evening and is likely to hand out plenty of pre-election goodies ahead of an expected May election. Like countries everywhere, Australians are facing a soaring cost of living on multiple fronts, as the Ukraine war and the downstream effects of ham-fisted quantitative easing mean the piper finally has to be paid. Voters will naturally blame the government now that the party is over. Although the budget will be significant for the embattled Morrison government’s hopes of re-election, its impact on markets will be modest. It may give President Biden a headache though as he ponders mid-terms in November and a lame-duck presidency.

 

Australian Preliminary Retail Sales rose 1.80% in Feb, better than expected but old news considering events since. South Korean March Consumer Confidence held firm at 103.20, while Japan’s Unemployment for February dropped to 2.7-%, both a pleasant surprise given the events of February. Whether that trend continues is another thing altogether. German Consumer Confidence for April is likely to slump for obvious reasons this afternoon.

 

In the US, we have three Fed presidents speaking, and some closely watched data. The S&P/Case-Schiller Home Price MoM for January will be watched for more signs the housing market is topping out, although it is a lagging indicator. We also have the February JOLTS Job Openings. A fall below 11 million open positions could give some temporary respite to the bond market, hinting that the US labour crunch is starting to ease. That’s a reach though. President Biden will also make a 2023 budget speech. Preliminary details yesterday targeted rate hikes for the rich and spending increases.  I can’t see it moving the needle on the mid-terms and I believe it will remain stuck in Congress for a long time.

 

Otherwise, we should all be watching our news providers for breaking news on a breakthrough in Ukraine-Russia negotiations, or not.

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International

Fighting the Surveillance State Begins with the Individual

It’s a well-known fact at this point that in the United States and most of the so-called free countries that there is a robust surveillance state in…

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October 23, 2023

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It’s a well-known fact at this point that in the United States and most of the so-called free countries that there is a robust surveillance state in place, collecting data on the entire populace. This has been proven beyond a shadow of a doubt by people like Edward Snowden, a National Security Agency (NSA) whistleblower who exposed that the NSA was conducting mass surveillance on US citizens and the world as a whole. The NSA used applications like those from Prism Systems to piggyback on corporations and the data collection their users had agreed to in the terms of service. Google would scan all emails sent to a Gmail address to use for personalized advertising. The government then went to these companies and demanded the data, and this is what makes the surveillance state so interesting. Neo-Marxists like Shoshana Zuboff have dubbed this “surveillance capitalism.” In China, the mass surveillance is conducted at a loss. Setting up closed-circuit television cameras and hiring government workers to be a mandatory editorial staff for blogs and social media can get quite expensive. But if you parasitically leech off a profitable business practice it means that the surveillance state will turn a profit, which is a great asset and an even greater weakness for the system. You see, when that is what your surveillance state is predicated on you’ve effectively given your subjects an opt-out button. They stop using services that spy on them. There is software and online services that are called “open source,” which refers to software whose code is publicly available and can be viewed by anyone so that you can see exactly what that software does. The opposite of this, and what you’re likely already familiar with, is proprietary software. Open-source software generally markets itself as privacy respecting and doesn’t participate in data collection. Services like that can really undo the tricky situation we’ve found ourselves in. It’s a simple fact of life that when the government is given a power—whether that be to regulate, surveil, tax, or plunder—it is nigh impossible to wrestle it away from the state outside somehow disposing of the state entirely. This is why the issue of undoing mass surveillance is of the utmost importance. If the government has the power to spy on its populace, it will. There are people, like the creators of The Social Dilemma, who think that the solution to these privacy invasions isn’t less government but more government, arguing that data collection should be taxed to dissuade the practice or that regulation needs to be put into place to actively prevent abuses. This is silly to anyone who understands the effect regulations have and how the internet really works. You see, data collection is necessary. You can’t have email without some elements of data collection because it’s simply how the protocol functions. The issue is how that data is stored and used. A tax on data collection itself will simply become another cost of doing business. A large company like Google can afford to pay a tax. But a company like Proton Mail, a smaller, more privacy-respecting business, likely couldn’t. Proton Mail’s business model is based on paid subscriptions. If there were additional taxes imposed on them, it’s possible that they would not be able to afford the cost and would be forced out of the market. To reiterate, if one really cares about the destruction of the surveillance state, the first step is to personally make changes to how you interact with online services and to whom you choose to give your data.

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International

Stock Market Today: Stocks turn higher as Treasury yields retreat; big tech earnings up next

A pullback in Treasury yields has stocks moving higher Monday heading into a busy earnings week and a key 2-year bond auction later on Tuesday.

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October 23, 2023

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Updated at 11:52 am EDT U.S. stocks turned higher Monday, heading into the busiest earnings week of the year on Wall Street, amid a pullback in Treasury bond yields that followed the first breach of 5% for 10-year notes since 2007. Investors, however, continue to track developments in Israel's war with Hamas, which launched its deadly attack from Gaza three weeks ago, as leaders around the region, and the wider world, work to contain the fighting and broker at least a form of cease-fire. Humanitarian aid is also making its way into Gaza, through the territory's border with Egypt, as officials continue to work for the release of more than 200 Israelis taken hostage by Hamas during the October 7 attack. Those diplomatic efforts eased some of the market's concern in overnight trading, but the lingering risk that regional adversaries such as Iran, or even Saudi Arabia, could be drawn into the conflict continues to blunt risk appetite. Still, the U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six global currencies and acts as the safe-haven benchmark in times of market turmoil, fell 0.37% in early New York trading 105.773, suggesting some modest moves into riskier assets. The Japanese yen, however, eased past the 150 mark in overnight dealing, a level that has some traders awaiting intervention from the Bank of Japan and which may have triggered small amounts of dollar sales and yen purchases. In the bond market, benchmark 10-year note yields breached the 5% mark in overnight trading, after briefly surpassing that level late last week for the first time since 2007, but were last seen trading at 4.867% ahead of $141 billion in 2-year, 5-year and 7-year note auctions later this week. Global oil prices were also lower, following two consecutive weekly gains that has take Brent crude, the global pricing benchmark, firmly past $90 a barrel amid supply disruption concerns tied to the middle east conflict. Brent contracts for December delivery were last seen $1.06 lower on the session at $91.07 per barrel while WTI futures contract for the same month fell $1.36 to $86.72 per barrel. Market volatility gauges were also active, with the CBOE Group's VIX index hitting a fresh seven-month high of $23.08 before easing to $20.18 later in the session. That level suggests traders are expecting ranges on the S&P 500 of around 1.26%, or 53 points, over the next month. A busy earnings week also indicates the likelihood of elevated trading volatility, with 158 S&P 500 companies reporting third quarter earnings over the next five days, including mega cap tech names such as Google parent Alphabet  (GOOGL) - Get Free Report, Microsoft  (MSFT) - Get Free Report, retail and cloud computing giant Amazon  (AMZN) - Get Free Report and Facebook owner Meta Platforms  (META) - Get Free Report. "It’s shaping up to be a big week for the market and it comes as the S&P 500 is testing a key level—the four-month low it set earlier this month," said Chris Larkin, managing director for trading and investing at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley. "How the market responds to that test may hinge on sentiment, which often plays a larger-than-average role around this time of year," he added. "And right now, concerns about rising interest rates and geopolitical turmoil have the potential to exacerbate the market’s swings." Heading into the middle of the trading day on Wall Street, the S&P 500, which is down 8% from its early July peak, the highest of the year, was up 10 points, or 0.25%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which slumped into negative territory for the year last week, was marked 10 points lower while the Nasdaq, which fell 4.31% last week, was up 66 points, or 0.51%. In overseas markets, Europe's Stoxx 600 was marked 0.11% lower by the close of Frankfurt trading, with markets largely tracking U.S. stocks as well as the broader conflict in Israel. In Asia, a  slump in China stocks took the benchmark CSI 300 to a fresh 2019 low and pulled the region-wide MSCI ex-Japan 0.72% lower into the close of trading.
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Forget Ron DeSantis: Walt Disney has a much bigger problem

The company’s political woes are a sideshow to the one key issue Bob Iger has to solve.

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October 23, 2023

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Walt Disney has a massive, but solvable, problem.

The company's current skirmishes with Florida Gov. DeSantis get a lot of headlines, but they're not having a major impact on the company's bottom line.

Related: What the Bud Light boycott means for Disney, Target, and Starbucks

DeSantis has made Walt Disney (DIS) - Get Free Report a target in what he calls his war on woke, an effort to win right-wing support as he tries to secure the Republican Party nomination for president. 

That effort has generated plenty of press and multiple lawsuits tied to the governor's takeover of the former Reedy Creek Improvement District, Disney's legislated self-governance operation. But it has not hurt revenue at the company's massive Florida theme-park complex.  

Disney Chief Executive Bob Iger addressed the matter during the company's third-quarter-earnings call, without directly mentioning DeSantis.

"Walt Disney World is still performing well above precovid levels: 21% higher in revenue and 29% higher in operating income compared to fiscal 2019," he said. 

And "following a number of recent changes we've implemented, we continue to see positive guest-experience ratings in our theme parks, including Walt Disney World, and positive indicators for guests looking to book future visits."

The theme parks are not Disney's problem. The death of the movie business is, however, a hurdle that Iger has yet to show that the company has a plan to clear.

Boba Fett starred in a show on Disney+.

Image source: Walt Disney

Disney needs a plan to monetize content 

In 2019 Walt Disney drew in more $11 billion in global box office, or $13 billion when you add in the former Fox properties it also owns. In that year seven Mouse House films crossed the billion-dollar threshold in theaters, according to data from Box Office Mojo.

This year, the company will struggle to reach half that and it has no billion-dollar films, with "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" closing its theatrical run at $845 million globally. 

(That's actually good for third place this year, as only "Barbie" and "The Super Mario Bros. Movie" have broken the billion-dollar mark and they may be the only two films to do that this year.)

In the precovid world Disney could release two Pixar movies, three Marvel films, a live-action remake of an animated classic, and maybe one other film that each would be nearly guaranteed to earn $1 billion at the box office.

That's simply not how the movie business works anymore. While theaters may remain part of Disney's plan to monetize its content, the past isn't coming back. Theaters may remain a piece of the movie-release puzzle, but 2023 isn't an anomaly or a bad release schedule.

Consumers have big TVs at home and they're more than happy to watch most films on them.

Disney owns the IP but charges too little

People aren't less interested in Marvel and Star Wars; they're just getting their fix from Disney+ at an absurdly low price. 

Over the past couple of months through the next few weeks, I will have watched about seven hours of premium Star Wars content and five hours of top-tier Marvel content with "Ahsoka" and "Loki" respectively. 

Before the covid pandemic, I gladly would have paid theater prices for each movie in those respective universes. Now, I have consumed about six movies worth of premium content for less than the price of two movie tickets.

By making its premium content television shows available on a service that people can buy for $7.99 a month Disney has devalued its most valuable asset, its intellectual property. 

Consumers have shown that they will pay the $10 to $15 cost of a movie ticket to see what happens next in the Marvel Cinematic Universe or the Star Wars galaxy. But the company has offered top-tier content from those franchises at a lower price.

Iger needs to find a way to replace billions of dollars in lost box office, but charging less for the company's content makes no sense. 

Now, some fans likely won't pay triple the price for Disney+. But if it were to bundle a direct-to-consumer ESPN along with content that currently gets released to movie theaters, Disney might create a package that it can price in a way that reflects the value of its IP.

Consumers want Disney's content and they will likely pay more for it. Iger simply has to find a way to make that happen.

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