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Caroline Ellison speaks on FTX-Binance war, SEC won’t appeal Grayscale BTC ETF: Hodler’s Digest, Oct. 8-14

Caroline Ellison testifies in Sam Bankman-Fried trial, reveals more on FTX-Binance war; SEC reportedly has no plans to appeal on Grayscale Bitcoin ETF…

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Caroline Ellison testifies in Sam Bankman-Fried trial, reveals more on FTX-Binance war; SEC reportedly has no plans to appeal on Grayscale Bitcoin ETF case.

Top Stories This Week

Caroline Ellison wanted to step down but feared a bank run on FTX

Caroline Ellison, former CEO of Alameda Research, testified for over 10 hours this week at Sam Bankman-Frieds trial, offering deeper details on the events that anticipated the FTX debacle in November 2022. From Ellison’s testimony, jurors learned that she planned to leave Alameda months before its collapse, but feared a bank run on FTX amidst the crypto market downturn. The week also featured a recording presented as evidence in the case showing the exact moment Ellison told employees about Alameda’s use of FTX customer deposits. Among the key moments of Bankman-Fried’s trial were revelations of fabricated balance sheets in order to deceive crypto lenders, as well as BlockFi CEO Zac Princes testimony. Check out this week’s highlights from Cointelegraph’s team on the ground.

Sam Bankman-Fried blamed Binance for balance sheet leak to media: Court evidence

Months before the collapse of crypto exchange FTX, former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried was freaking out about buying shares in Snapchat, raising capital from Saudi royalty and getting regulators to crack down on rival crypto exchange Binance, according to evidence presented in court this week as a part of the ongoing criminal trial. Bankman-Fried believed Binance leaked an Alameda balance sheet to the media in 2022. According to a document from Nov. 6, 2022, Bankman-Fried wrote that Binance had been engaging in a PR campaign against us. It continued, saying that Binance leaked a balance sheet; blogged about it; fed it to Coindesk; then announced very publicly that they were selling $500m of FTT in response to it while telling customers to be wary of FTX.

SEC reportedly wont appeal court decision on Grayscale Bitcoin ETF

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission reportedly has no plans to appeal the recent court decision that favored Grayscale Investments. The ruling requires the SEC to review the firms spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) application. The SECs supposed decision not to appeal doesnt necessarily mean Grayscales application is set to be approved. If the reports are true, the SEC will need to follow the courts August order and review Grayscales application to change its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into a spot Bitcoin ETF.

Terraform Labs contends Citadel Securities had a hand in its stablecoin collapse

Terraform Labs has again pointed the finger at market maker Citadel Securities for its role in an alleged concerted, intentional effort to cause the depeg of its TerraUSD stablecoin in 2022. On Oct. 10, Terraform Labs filed a motion in the United States to compel Citadel Securities to produce documents relating to its trading activity in May 2022, when TerraUSD Classic depegged. In its motion, Terraform argued that the documents are crucial for its defense in the lawsuit filed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in February, which alleged Terraform Labs and its founder, Do Kwon, had a hand in orchestrating a multi-billion dollar crypto asset securities fraud. Citadel Securities has, however, previously denied trading the TerraUSD stablecoin in May 2022.

Mastercard announces successful wrapped CBDC trial results

Mastercard has completed a trial involving wrapping central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) on different blockchains, similar to wrapped Bitcoin and wrapped Ether. The trial was conducted with the Reserve Bank of Australia and the countrys Digital Finance Cooperative Research Centre CBDC. Mastercard said the solution allowed a CBDC owner to purchase a nonfungible token (NFT) listed on Ethereum. The process locked the required amount of a pilot CBDC on the RBAs pilot CBDC platform and minted an equivalent amount of wrapped pilot CBDC tokens on Ethereum, the payment processor wrote.

Winners and Losers

At the end of the week, Bitcoin (BTC) is at $26,892, Ether (ETH) at $1,551 and XRP at $0.48. The total market cap is at $1.05 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.

Among the biggest 100 cryptocurrencies, the top three altcoin gainers of the week are Loom Network (LOOM) at 86.71%, Trust Wallet Token (TWT) at 16.72% and Tether Gold (XAUt) at 5.16%. 

The top three altcoin losers of the week are Mantle (MNT) at -17.27%, Rocket Pool (RPL) at -14.39% and Avalanche (AVAX) at -13.39%.

For more info on crypto prices, make sure to read Cointelegraphs market analysis.

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Most Memorable Quotations

Thats our homework, actually. To really educate people about the benefit of using blockchain.

Grace Sabandar, co-founder of the Indonesia Blockchain and Metaverse Center

Crypto-assets markets, including DeFi, do not represent meaningful risks to financial stability at this point.

European Securities and Markets Authority

I was worrying about customer withdrawals from FTX, this getting out, people to be hurt. […] I didnt feel good. If people found out [about Alameda using FTX funds], they would all try to withdraw from FTX.

Caroline Ellison, former CEO of Alameda Research

Its alarming and should be a wakeup call for lawmakers and regulators that digital wallets connected to Hamas received millions of dollars in cryptocurrencies.

Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator

Bitcoin and Ethereum may seem like opposites, but they can co-exist and complement each other.

Willem Schro, CEO of Botanix Labs

People who believe SBFraud is a good guy who made mistakes, and FTX grew too fast and it all got away from him, should NEVER be in charge of other peoples money.”

John Deaton, attorney and crypto advocate

Prediction of the Week 

Ethereum losing streak vs. Bitcoin hits 15 months Can ETH price reverse course?

The price of Ethereum’s native token, Ether, is trading around a 15-month low versus Bitcoin, and the lowest since Ethereum switched to proof-of-stake. The ETH/BTC pair dropped to as low as 0.056 BTC earlier this week. In doing so, the pair broke below its 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the blue wave) near 0.058 BTC, raising downside risks further into 2023.

The 200-week EMA has historically served as a reliable support level for ETH/BTC bulls.

ETH/BTC stares at similar selloff risks in 2023 after losing its 200-week EMA as support. In this case, the next downside target looks to be around its 0.5 Fibonacci line near 0.051 BTC in 2023, down about 9.5% from current price levels.

Conversely, ETH price may rebound toward its 50-week EMA (the red wave) near 0.065 BTC if it reclaims the 200-week EMA as support.

FUD of the Week 

Mistake or money laundering? User pays $1.6 million for CrypToadz NFT

One of the CrypToadz NFTs, whose average price doesnt exceed $1,000, was bought for an astonishing 1,055 wrapped Ether, an equivalent of $1.6 million. The CrypToadz collection was launched during the NFT boom of 2021 and surpassed a trading volume of $38 million worth of Ether during its first 10 days on the market. The price paid by the anonymous user for the NFT raised questions among the community. Two weeks ago, this item was acquired for 0.95 ETH (around $1,600), only to be sold for a price a thousand times higher.

USDR stablecoin depegs to $0.53, but team vows to provide solutions

Real estate-backed stablecoin USDR lost its peg to the United States dollar after a rush of redemptions caused a draining of liquid assets such as Dai from its treasury. USDR, backed by a mixture of cryptocurrencies and real estate holdings, is issued by the Tangible protocol, a decentralized finance project that seeks to tokenize housing and other real-world assets. During the crisis, a trader reportedly exchanged 131,350 USDR for 0 USD Coin, resulting in a complete loss on investment.

HTX claws back $8M in stolen funds, issues 250 ETH bounty to hacker

Huobi Globals crypto exchange HTX has confirmed the return of the funds stolen by a hacker in late September and issued a 250 Ether bounty after resolving the issue. One of HTXs hot wallets was drained of 5,000 ETH on Sept. 25, worth roughly $8 million at the time. Shortly after the hack occurred, the firm contacted the hacker and claimed to know their identity. HTX ultimately offered to pay a 5% bounty worth around $400,000 and not to take any legal action if they returned 95% of the funds before a deadline of Oct. 2.

Beyond crypto: Zero-knowledge proofs show potential from voting to finance

An emerging cryptographic technology may provide help with two gaping 21st-century needs: Privacy and truth.

Eleanor Terrett on impersonators and a better crypto industry

Fox Business producer Eleanor Terrett’s following exploded after she began providing commentary on the SEC v. Ripple lawsuit.

SBFs alleged Chinese bribe, Binance clarifies account freeze: Asia Express

SBF allegedly bribes Chinese officials with $150 million to unfreeze accounts, Binance justifies blocking Hamas users, meanwhile, Huobi hacker returns all $8M in stolen assets.

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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March 9, 2024

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

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18 hours ago

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March 8, 2024

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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…

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18 hours ago

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March 8, 2024

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

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