Uncategorized
Cardless ATM Market Size to Grow by USD 2.11 Bn, 53% of Market Growth to Originate from North America – Technavio
Cardless ATM Market Size to Grow by USD 2.11 Bn, 53% of Market Growth to Originate from North America – Technavio
PR Newswire
NEW YORK, Nov. 1, 2022
NEW YORK, Nov. 1, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — The cardless ATM market size is expected to grow by USD 2.11…
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Cardless ATM Market Size to Grow by USD 2.11 Bn, 53% of Market Growth to Originate from North America - Technavio
PR Newswire
NEW YORK, Nov. 1, 2022
NEW YORK, Nov. 1, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- The cardless ATM market size is expected to grow by USD 2.11 billion from 2021 to 2026. In addition, the growth momentum of the market will accelerate at a CAGR of 6.93% during the forecast period, according to Technavio. This growth can be attributed to the increased penetration of smartphones. However, regulations on contactless payment transactions can hamper the growth of the market during the next few years.
View a comprehensive report summary that describes the market size and forecast along with the research methodology. The FREE sample report is available in PDF format
- Offsite ATM - size and forecast 2021-2026
- Onsite ATM - size and forecast 2021-2026
- Others - size and forecast 2021-2026
- North America - size and forecast 2021-2026
- APAC - size and forecast 2021-2026
- Europe - size and forecast 2021-2026
- South America - size and forecast 2021-2026
- Middle East and Africa - size and forecast 2021-2026
Learn about the contribution of each segment summarized in concise infographics and thorough descriptions. View a FREE PDF Sample Report
North America will account for 53% of the market's growth during the forecast period. This growth is attributed to factors such as the growing adoption of contactless payment services. Moreover, the growth of the market in this region will be faster than the growth of the market in South America. The US is a key country for the cardless ATM market in North America.
The increased penetration of smartphones is driving market growth, especially in emerging countries, due to the rising sales of low-priced smartphones. These smartphones have several features of high-end smartphones. Moreover, NFC chips enable smartphones to connect with other NFC-enabled devices in cardless ATMs for data transfer. A smartphone can also read QR codes on the ATM screen. Such factors are expected to fuel the growth of the global cardless ATM market during the forecast period.
The emergence of biometric ATMs is a key trend. Concerns regarding hygiene due to the outbreak of harmful diseases are increasing in various countries. Hence, to tackle issues related to the spread of communicable diseases, vendors are focusing on contactless biometrics, including retina and iris scanning and 3D facial recognition. Therefore, a rise in the use of biometrics in the global cardless ATM market will open new growth opportunities for vendors.
Identify key trends, drivers, and challenges in the market, which will help vendors improve their strategies to stay ahead of their competitors. Buy Now for detailed information about market dynamics
- Banco Santander SA
- Barclays Bank Plc
- Citigroup Inc.
- Commonwealth Bank of Australia
- Diebold Nixdorf Inc.
- Fifth Third Bancorp
- Fujitsu Ltd.
- GRG Banking
- HDFC Bank Ltd.
- HSBC Holdings Plc
- Hyosung Corp.
- ICICI Bank Ltd.
- JPMorgan Chase and Co.
- Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd.
- NCR Corp.
- State Bank of India
- Turk Ekonomi Bank AS
- Wells Fargo and Co.
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Credit Card Payments Market by End-user and Geography - Forecast and Analysis 2022-2026: This report extensively covers segmentation by end-user (consumer or individual and commercial) and geography (North America, APAC, Europe, South America, and the Middle East and Africa). 44% of the market's growth will originate from North America during the forecast period. The market share growth by the consumer or individual segment will be significant.
Fuel Cards Market Growth, Size, Trends, Analysis Report by Type, Application, Region and Segment Forecast 2022-2026: This report extensively covers segmentation by type (branded, universal, and merchant) and geography (Europe, North America, APAC, Middle East and Africa, and South America). 38% of the market's growth will originate from Europe during the forecast period. The market share growth by the branded segment will be significant.
Cardless ATM Market Scope | |
Report Coverage | Details |
Page number | 120 |
Base year | 2021 |
Forecast period | 2022-2026 |
Growth momentum & CAGR | Accelerate at a CAGR of 6.93% |
Market growth 2022-2026 | USD 2.11 billion |
Market structure | Fragmented |
YoY growth (%) | 6.11 |
Regional analysis | North America, APAC, Europe, South America, and Middle East and Africa |
Performing market contribution | North America at 53% |
Key consumer countries | US, China, India, Germany, and UK |
Competitive landscape | Leading companies, competitive strategies, consumer engagement scope |
Key companies profiled | Banco Santander SA, Barclays Bank Plc, Citigroup Inc., Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Diebold Nixdorf Inc., Fifth Third Bancorp, Fujitsu Ltd., GRG Banking, HDFC Bank Ltd., HSBC Holdings Plc, Hyosung Corp., ICICI Bank Ltd., JPMorgan Chase and Co., Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd., NCR Corp., State Bank of India, Turk Ekonomi Bank AS, and Wells Fargo and Co. |
Market dynamics | Parent market analysis, market growth inducers and obstacles, fast-growing and slow-growing segment analysis, COVID-19 impact and recovery analysis and future consumer dynamics, and market condition analysis for the forecast period. |
Customization purview | If our report has not included the data that you are looking for, you can reach out to our analysts and get segments customized. |
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1 Executive Summary
- 1.1 Market overview
- Exhibit 01: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Overview
- Exhibit 02: Executive Summary – Data Table on Market Overview
- Exhibit 03: Executive Summary – Chart on Global Market Characteristics
- Exhibit 04: Executive Summary – Chart on Market by Geography
- Exhibit 05: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Segmentation by Type
- Exhibit 06: Executive Summary – Chart on Incremental Growth
- Exhibit 07: Executive Summary – Data Table on Incremental Growth
- Exhibit 08: Executive Summary – Chart on Vendor Market Positioning
2 Market Landscape
- 2.1 Market ecosystem
- Exhibit 09: Parent market
- Exhibit 10: Market Characteristics
3 Market Sizing
- 3.1 Market definition
- Exhibit 11: Offerings of vendors included in the market definition
- 3.2 Market segment analysis
- Exhibit 12: Market segments
- 3.3 Market size 2021
- 3.4 Market outlook: Forecast for 2021-2026
- Exhibit 13: Chart on Global - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 14: Data Table on Global - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 15: Chart on Global Market: Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- Exhibit 16: Data Table on Global Market: Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
4 Five Forces Analysis
- 4.1 Five forces summary
- Exhibit 17: Five forces analysis - Comparison between 2021 and 2026
- 4.2 Bargaining power of buyers
- Exhibit 18: Chart on Bargaining power of buyers – Impact of key factors 2021 and 2026
- 4.3 Bargaining power of suppliers
- Exhibit 19: Bargaining power of suppliers – Impact of key factors in 2021 and 2026
- 4.4 Threat of new entrants
- Exhibit 20: Threat of new entrants – Impact of key factors in 2021 and 2026
- 4.5 Threat of substitutes
- Exhibit 21: Threat of substitutes – Impact of key factors in 2021 and 2026
- 4.6 Threat of rivalry
- Exhibit 22: Threat of rivalry – Impact of key factors in 2021 and 2026
- 4.7 Market condition
- Exhibit 23: Chart on Market condition - Five forces 2021 and 2026
5 Market Segmentation by Type
- 5.1 Market segments
- Exhibit 24: Chart on Type - Market share 2021-2026 (%)
- Exhibit 25: Data Table on Type - Market share 2021-2026 (%)
- 5.2 Comparison by Type
- Exhibit 26: Chart on Comparison by Type
- Exhibit 27: Data Table on Comparison by Type
- 5.3 Offsite ATM - Market size and forecast 2021-2026
- Exhibit 28: Chart on Offsite ATM - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 29: Data Table on Offsite ATM - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 30: Chart on Offsite ATM - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- Exhibit 31: Data Table on Offsite ATM - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- 5.4 Onsite ATM - Market size and forecast 2021-2026
- Exhibit 32: Chart on Onsite ATM - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 33: Data Table on Onsite ATM - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 34: Chart on Onsite ATM - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- Exhibit 35: Data Table on Onsite ATM - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- 5.5 Others - Market size and forecast 2021-2026
- Exhibit 36: Chart on Others - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 37: Data Table on Others - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 38: Chart on Others - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- Exhibit 39: Data Table on Others - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- 5.6 Market opportunity by Type
- Exhibit 40: Market opportunity by Type ($ million)
6 Customer Landscape
- 6.1 Customer landscape overview
- Exhibit 41: Analysis of price sensitivity, lifecycle, customer purchase basket, adoption rates, and purchase criteria
7 Geographic Landscape
- 7.1 Geographic segmentation
- Exhibit 42: Chart on Market share by geography 2021-2026 (%)
- Exhibit 43: Data Table on Market share by geography 2021-2026 (%)
- 7.2 Geographic comparison
- Exhibit 44: Chart on Geographic comparison
- Exhibit 45: Data Table on Geographic comparison
- 7.3 North America - Market size and forecast 2021-2026
- Exhibit 46: Chart on North America - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 47: Data Table on North America - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 48: Chart on North America - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- Exhibit 49: Data Table on North America - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- 7.4 APAC - Market size and forecast 2021-2026
- Exhibit 50: Chart on APAC - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 51: Data Table on APAC - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 52: Chart on APAC - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- Exhibit 53: Data Table on APAC - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- 7.5 Europe - Market size and forecast 2021-2026
- Exhibit 54: Chart on Europe - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 55: Data Table on Europe - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 56: Chart on Europe - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- Exhibit 57: Data Table on Europe - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- 7.6 South America - Market size and forecast 2021-2026
- Exhibit 58: Chart on South America - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 59: Data Table on South America - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 60: Chart on South America - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- Exhibit 61: Data Table on South America - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- 7.7 Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2021-2026
- Exhibit 62: Chart on Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 63: Data Table on Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 64: Chart on Middle East and Africa - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- Exhibit 65: Data Table on Middle East and Africa - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- 7.8 US - Market size and forecast 2021-2026
- Exhibit 66: Chart on US - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 67: Data Table on US - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 68: Chart on US - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- Exhibit 69: Data Table on US - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- 7.9 China - Market size and forecast 2021-2026
- Exhibit 70: Chart on China - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 71: Data Table on China - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 72: Chart on China - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- Exhibit 73: Data Table on China - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- 7.10 Germany - Market size and forecast 2021-2026
- Exhibit 74: Chart on Germany - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 75: Data Table on Germany - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 76: Chart on Germany - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- Exhibit 77: Data Table on Germany - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- 7.11 UK - Market size and forecast 2021-2026
- Exhibit 78: Chart on UK - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 79: Data Table on UK - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 80: Chart on UK - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- Exhibit 81: Data Table on UK - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- 7.12 India - Market size and forecast 2021-2026
- Exhibit 82: Chart on India - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 83: Data Table on India - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 84: Chart on India - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- Exhibit 85: Data Table on India - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- 7.13 Market opportunity by geography
- Exhibit 86: Market opportunity by geography ($ million)
8 Drivers, Challenges, and Trends
- 8.1 Market drivers
- 8.2 Market challenges
- 8.3 Impact of drivers and challenges
- Exhibit 87: Impact of drivers and challenges in 2021 and 2026
- 8.4 Market trends
9 Vendor Landscape
- 9.1 Overview
- 9.2 Vendor landscape
- Exhibit 88: Overview on Criticality of inputs and Factors of differentiation
- 9.3 Landscape disruption
- Exhibit 89: Overview on factors of disruption
- 9.4 Industry risks
- Exhibit 90: Impact of key risks on business
10 Vendor Analysis
- 10.1 Vendors covered
- Exhibit 91: Vendors covered
- 10.2 Market positioning of vendors
- Exhibit 92: Matrix on vendor position and classification
- 10.3 Citigroup Inc.
- Exhibit 93: Citigroup Inc. - Overview
- Exhibit 94: Citigroup Inc. - Business segments
- Exhibit 95: Citigroup Inc. - Key offerings
- Exhibit 96: Citigroup Inc. - Segment focus
- 10.4 Commonwealth Bank of Australia
- Exhibit 97: Commonwealth Bank of Australia - Overview
- Exhibit 98: Commonwealth Bank of Australia - Business segments
- Exhibit 99: Commonwealth Bank of Australia - Key offerings
- Exhibit 100: Commonwealth Bank of Australia - Segment focus
- 10.5 Diebold Nixdorf Inc.
- Exhibit 101: Diebold Nixdorf Inc. - Overview
- Exhibit 102: Diebold Nixdorf Inc. - Business segments
- Exhibit 103: Diebold Nixdorf Inc. - Key offerings
- Exhibit 104: Diebold Nixdorf Inc. - Segment focus
- 10.6 Fujitsu Ltd.
- Exhibit 105: Fujitsu Ltd. - Overview
- Exhibit 106: Fujitsu Ltd. - Business segments
- Exhibit 107: Fujitsu Ltd. - Key offerings
- Exhibit 108: Fujitsu Ltd. - Segment focus
- 10.7 GRG Banking
- Exhibit 109: GRG Banking - Overview
- Exhibit 110: GRG Banking - Product / Service
- Exhibit 111: GRG Banking - Key offerings
- 10.8 HDFC Bank Ltd.
- Exhibit 112: HDFC Bank Ltd. - Overview
- Exhibit 113: HDFC Bank Ltd. - Business segments
- Exhibit 114: HDFC Bank Ltd. - Key offerings
- Exhibit 115: HDFC Bank Ltd. - Segment focus
- 10.9 HSBC Holdings Plc
- Exhibit 116: HSBC Holdings Plc - Overview
- Exhibit 117: HSBC Holdings Plc - Business segments
- Exhibit 118: HSBC Holdings Plc - Key news
- Exhibit 119: HSBC Holdings Plc - Key offerings
- Exhibit 120: HSBC Holdings Plc - Segment focus
- 10.10 Hyosung Corp.
- Exhibit 121: Hyosung Corp. - Overview
- Exhibit 122: Hyosung Corp. - Product / Service
- Exhibit 123: Hyosung Corp. - Key news
- Exhibit 124: Hyosung Corp. - Key offerings
- 10.11 JPMorgan Chase and Co.
- Exhibit 125: JPMorgan Chase and Co. - Overview
- Exhibit 126: JPMorgan Chase and Co. - Business segments
- Exhibit 127: JPMorgan Chase and Co. - Key offerings
- Exhibit 128: JPMorgan Chase and Co. - Segment focus
- 10.12 NCR Corp.
- Exhibit 129: NCR Corp. - Overview
- Exhibit 130: NCR Corp. - Business segments
- Exhibit 131: NCR Corp. - Key news
- Exhibit 132: NCR Corp. - Key offerings
- Exhibit 133: NCR Corp. - Segment focus
11 Appendix
- 11.1 Scope of the report
- 11.2 Inclusions and exclusions checklist
- Exhibit 134: Inclusions checklist
- Exhibit 135: Exclusions checklist
- 11.3 Currency conversion rates for US$
- Exhibit 136: Currency conversion rates for US$
- 11.4 Research methodology
- Exhibit 137: Research methodology
- Exhibit 138: Validation techniques employed for market sizing
- Exhibit 139: Information sources
- 11.5 List of abbreviations
- Exhibit 140: List of abbreviations
Technavio is a leading global technology research and advisory company. Their research and analysis focus on emerging market trends and provide actionable insights to help businesses identify market opportunities and develop effective strategies to optimize their market positions.
With over 500 specialized analysts, Technavio's report library consists of more than 17,000 reports and counting, covering 800 technologies, spanning across 50 countries. Their client base consists of enterprises of all sizes, including more than 100 Fortune 500 companies. This growing client base relies on Technavio's comprehensive coverage, extensive research, and actionable market insights to identify opportunities in existing and potential markets and assess their competitive positions within changing market scenarios.
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Uncategorized
February Employment Situation
By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…
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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert
The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.
Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.
Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.
The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.
The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.
Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.
As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.
Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.
The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.
unemployment pandemic unemploymentUncategorized
Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes
Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.
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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.
The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.
From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250
Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.
1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.
2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.
Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.
3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too
Total employment data
4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels.
From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.
Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:
In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:
- Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
- High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
- Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
- Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.
recession unemployment covid-19 fed federal reserve mortgage rates recession recovery unemploymentUncategorized
Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month
Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month
Last month we though that the January…
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Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush.
What happened? Let's take a closer look.
On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.
Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.
Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K, a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!
Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.
In the past month the Biden department of goalseeking stuff higher before revising it lower, has revised the following data sharply lower:
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 30, 2023
- Jobs
- JOLTS
- New Home sales
- Housing Starts and Permits
- Industrial Production
- PCE and core PCE
To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).
And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...
... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...
... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.
While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.
But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).
This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.
There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).
Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!
But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!
The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!
Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...
... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!
This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...
... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.
Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.
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