International
Budget explainer: here are some ways to read between the lines on what’s being reported
Reading economic news can be confusing. Here’s how to understand what the news is – and isn’t – telling you.
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UK budget announcements inevitably lead to a deluge of reporting on how the chancellor’s latest plans for the economy will affect our wallets, pensions and investments, as well as the bottom lines of businesses, charities and entire industries.
Sifting through all of this reporting can be confusing. Not just because of the sheer volume of budget-related news and analysis, but also because it’s difficult to accurately break down the real-life impacts of complex policy decisions for a wide audience, many of whom don’t have a background in economics or business.
A BBC review of the impartiality of its reporting on fiscal policy – taxes, spending, government debt and so on – was certainly critical of the British broadcaster’s attempts to explain the economy. The report, published in November 2022, reflected many of the frustrations that academic economists like me have about the reporting of economic issues.
It’s unclear how much impact the BBC report will have on financial journalism, but we can at least use it to help people that aren’t economists spot when the reporting of economic issues may be more misleading than informative.
Recent figures showing unexpectedly high government tax takings provide a great example. The data led to suggestions that the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, will have more money to spend or give away in his budget.
But this treats the government as if it was a cash-constrained household, unable to borrow or save. Most governments find it easier to borrow than households and firms. They can also create money through their central banks (as the UK did during the pandemic). So remember: any references to the government “maxing out its credit card” should be ignored.
Debt isn’t always bad
Assumptions that debt and deficits are inherently bad are also incorrect. For example, you might hear about “worrying” or “alarming” increases in government debt, which implies the government should be doing something to stop it – or even that it reflects government irresponsibility.
This kind of reporting was particularly prevalent under the UK coalition government of 2010-15. Some research shows it did a great deal of harm in terms of encouraging public acceptance of spending cuts that have led to today’s impoverished public sector – and yet it persists.
In reality, debt and deficits allow governments to avoid cutting spending every time taxes are temporarily low (in a recession, for example) by borrowing instead.
Most economists would say what actually matters is that the ratio of government debt to GDP should be stable in the long run – over decades rather than years. A record recession, like that of 2008-2009, is bound to produce record deficits. But economists generally have very little idea what the optimum level of government debt should be. In fact, governments can allow their debt to rise in recessions, as long as it stabilises (as a ratio of GDP) when the recession is over.
Reporting about debt sometimes also reflects two more general problems with economic news. The first is political, and involves internalising government policies. For example, you might read that a rising deficit means the government will have to cut spending.
What a news article on this topic should actually report is that a rising deficit means the government will say it has to cut spending. In fact, other choices like higher taxes or accepting higher borrowing are also possible. It is seldom true in economics that there is no alternative.
A related problem is when data is presented incorrectly, particularly in a way that creates alarm. The BBC review starts with the example of a chart showing the value of government debt since 2020, with steady and sometimes quite rapid growth. But this value can be expected to rise over time because of inflation and economic growth.
So, be suspicious of charts that fail to “normalise variables” by, at the very least, adjusting the figures to account for inflation. Better still, such charts should show these figures as ratios to GDP, which will reveal any true underlying trends.
Selective statistics
We all know about the dangers of selective statistics. A notorious example that academic economists warn against is the comparison of GDP growth rates across countries in a single year. The winners and losers in such comparisons can vary a lot depending on the year chosen. It is always better to make longer-term comparisons.
But even when charts are used to show a decade or two of data, they can still be misleading if longer runs of data are available. The ratio of debt to GDP may look high today compared with 40 years ago, but it remains much lower than in the decades after the second world war.
NHS spending provides a good example of the last two problems combined. Even if you normalise NHS spending as a ratio of GDP over time, it tends to rise (the decade after 2010 is an exception). This can suggest the NHS is getting the resources it needs. However, the ratio of healthcare spending to GDP has been rising steadily in many countries since the second world war, for reasons including ageing populations and advances in medicine.
Rising healthcare spending
So the key question is not whether NHS spending is rising, but whether this spending relative to UK GDP is above or below the underlying positive trend seen in other countries over decades.
Economics is, of course, not alone in being misrepresented by media reports. But I would argue that reporting that gets the economics wrong has had an important impact on politics over the last 15 years.
Simon Wren-Lewis has in the past received ESRC grants for developing a macroeconomic model of the UK economy. He has also been a consultant for H.M.Treasury, the Bank of England and the IMF.
recession pandemic economic growth grants government debt recession gdp uk
International
Shakira’s net worth
After 12 albums, a tax evasion case, and now a towering bronze idol sculpted in her image, how much is Shakira worth more than 4 decades into her care…
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Shakira’s considerable net worth is no surprise, given her massive popularity in Latin America, the U.S., and elsewhere.
In fact, the belly-dancing contralto queen is the second-wealthiest Latin-America-born pop singer of all time after Gloria Estefan. (Interestingly, Estefan actually helped a young Shakira translate her breakout album “Laundry Service” into English, hugely propelling her stateside success.)
Since releasing her first record at age 13, Shakira has spent decades recording albums in both Spanish and English and performing all over the world. Over the course of her 40+ year career, she helped thrust Latin pop music into the American mainstream, paving the way for the subsequent success of massively popular modern acts like Karol G and Bad Bunny.
In December 2023, a 21-foot-tall beachside bronze statue of the “Hips Don’t Lie” singer was unveiled in her Colombian hometown of Barranquilla, making her a permanent fixture in the city’s skyline and cementing her legacy as one of Latin America’s most influential entertainers.
After 12 albums, a plethora of film and television appearances, a highly publicized tax evasion case, and now a towering bronze idol sculpted in her image, how much is Shakira worth? What does her income look like? And how does she spend her money?
How much is Shakira worth?
In late 2023, Spanish sports and lifestyle publication Marca reported Shakira’s net worth at $400 million, citing Forbes as the figure’s source (although Forbes’ profile page for Shakira does not list a net worth — and didn’t when that article was published).
Most other sources list the singer’s wealth at an estimated $300 million, and almost all of these point to Celebrity Net Worth — a popular but dubious celebrity wealth estimation site — as the source for the figure.
A $300 million net worth would make Shakira the third-richest Latina pop star after Gloria Estefan ($500 million) and Jennifer Lopez ($400 million), and the second-richest Latin-America-born pop singer after Estefan (JLo is Puerto Rican but was born in New York).
Shakira’s income: How much does she make annually?
Entertainers like Shakira don’t have predictable paychecks like ordinary salaried professionals. Instead, annual take-home earnings vary quite a bit depending on each year’s album sales, royalties, film and television appearances, streaming revenue, and other sources of income. As one might expect, Shakira’s earnings have fluctuated quite a bit over the years.
From June 2018 to June 2019, for instance, Shakira was the 10th highest-earning female musician, grossing $35 million, according to Forbes. This wasn’t her first time gracing the top 10, though — back in 2012, she also landed the #10 spot, bringing in $20 million, according to Billboard.
In 2023, Billboard listed Shakira as the 16th-highest-grossing Latin artist of all time.
How much does Shakira make from her concerts and tours?
A large part of Shakira’s wealth comes from her world tours, during which she sometimes sells out massive stadiums and arenas full of passionate fans eager to see her dance and sing live.
According to a 2020 report by Pollstar, she sold over 2.7 million tickets across 190 shows that grossed over $189 million between 2000 and 2020. This landed her the 19th spot on a list of female musicians ranked by touring revenue during that period. In 2023, Billboard reported a more modest touring revenue figure of $108.1 million across 120 shows.
In 2003, Shakira reportedly generated over $4 million from a single show on Valentine’s Day at Foro Sol in Mexico City. 15 years later, in 2018, Shakira grossed around $76.5 million from her El Dorado World Tour, according to Touring Data.
Related: RuPaul's net worth: Everything to know about the cultural icon and force behind 'Drag Race'
How much has Shakira made from her album sales?
According to a 2023 profile in Variety, Shakira has sold over 100 million records throughout her career. “Laundry Service,” the pop icon’s fifth studio album, was her most successful, selling over 13 million copies worldwide, according to TheRichest.
Exactly how much money Shakira has taken home from her album sales is unclear, but in 2008, it was widely reported that she signed a 10-year contract with LiveNation to the tune of between $70 and $100 million to release her subsequent albums and manage her tours.
How much did Shakira make from her Super Bowl and World Cup performances?
Shakira co-wrote one of her biggest hits, “Waka Waka (This Time for Africa),” after FIFA selected her to create the official anthem for the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. She performed the song, along with several of her existing fan-favorite tracks, during the event’s opening ceremonies. TheThings reported in 2023 that the song generated $1.4 million in revenue, citing Popnable for the figure.
A decade later, 2020’s Superbowl halftime show featured Shakira and Jennifer Lopez as co-headliners with guest performances by Bad Bunny and J Balvin. The 14-minute performance was widely praised as a high-energy celebration of Latin music and dance, but as is typical for Super Bowl shows, neither Shakira nor JLo was compensated beyond expenses and production costs.
The exposure value that comes with performing in the Super Bowl Halftime Show, though, is significant. It is typically the most-watched television event in the U.S. each year, and in 2020, a 30-second Super Bowl ad spot cost between $5 and $6 million.
How much did Shakira make as a coach on “The Voice?”
Shakira served as a team coach on the popular singing competition program “The Voice” during the show’s fourth and sixth seasons. On the show, celebrity musicians coach up-and-coming amateurs in a team-based competition that eventually results in a single winner. In 2012, The Hollywood Reporter wrote that Shakira’s salary as a coach on “The Voice” was $12 million.
Related: John Cena's net worth: The wrestler-turned-actor's investments, businesses, and more
How does Shakira spend her money?
Shakira doesn’t just make a lot of money — she spends it, too. Like many wealthy entertainers, she’s purchased her share of luxuries, but Barranquilla’s barefoot belly dancer is also a prolific philanthropist, having donated tens of millions to charitable causes throughout her career.
Private island
Back in 2006, she teamed up with Roger Waters of Pink Floyd fame and Spanish singer Alejandro Sanz to purchase Bonds Cay, a 550-acre island in the Bahamas, which was listed for $16 million at the time.
Along with her two partners in the purchase, Shakira planned to develop the island to feature housing, hotels, and an artists’ retreat designed to host a revolving cast of artists-in-residence. This plan didn’t come to fruition, though, and as of this article’s last update, the island was once again for sale on Vladi Private Islands.
Real estate and vehicles
Like most wealthy celebs, Shakira’s portfolio of high-end playthings also features an array of luxury properties and vehicles, including a home in Barcelona, a villa in Cyprus, a Miami mansion, and a rotating cast of Mercedes-Benz vehicles.
Philanthropy and charity
Shakira doesn’t just spend her massive wealth on herself; the “Queen of Latin Music” is also a dedicated philanthropist and regularly donates portions of her earnings to the Fundación Pies Descalzos, or “Barefoot Foundation,” a charity she founded in 1997 to “improve the education and social development of children in Colombia, which has suffered decades of conflict.” The foundation focuses on providing meals for children and building and improving educational infrastructure in Shakira’s hometown of Barranquilla as well as four other Colombian communities.
In addition to her efforts with the Fundación Pies Descalzos, Shakira has made a number of other notable donations over the years. In 2007, she diverted a whopping $40 million of her wealth to help rebuild community infrastructure in Peru and Nicaragua in the wake of a devastating 8.0 magnitude earthquake. Later, during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, Shakira donated a large supply of N95 masks for healthcare workers and ventilators for hospital patients to her hometown of Barranquilla.
Back in 2010, the UN honored Shakira with a medal to recognize her dedication to social justice, at which time the Director General of the International Labour Organization described her as a “true ambassador for children and young people.”
Shakira’s tax fraud scandal: How much did she pay?
In 2018, prosecutors in Spain initiated a tax evasion case against Shakira, alleging she lived primarily in Spain from 2012 to 2014 and therefore failed to pay around $14.4 million in taxes to the Spanish government. Spanish law requires anyone who is “domiciled” (i.e., living primarily) in Spain for more than half of the year to pay income taxes.
During the period in question, Shakira listed the Bahamas as her primary residence but did spend some time in Spain, as she was dating Gerard Piqué, a professional footballer and Spanish citizen. The couple’s first son, Milan, was also born in Barcelona during this period.
Shakira maintained that she spent far fewer than 183 days per year in Spain during each of the years in question. In an interview with Elle Magazine, the pop star opined that “Spanish tax authorities saw that I was dating a Spanish citizen and started to salivate. It's clear they wanted to go after that money no matter what."
Prosecutors in the case sought a fine of almost $26 million and a possible eight-year prison stint, but in November of 2023, Shakira took a deal to close the case, accepting a fine of around $8 million and a three-year suspended sentence to avoid going to trial. In reference to her decision to take the deal, Shakira stated, "While I was determined to defend my innocence in a trial that my lawyers were confident would have ruled in my favour [had the trial proceeded], I have made the decision to finally resolve this matter with the best interest of my kids at heart who do not want to see their mom sacrifice her personal well-being in this fight."
How much did the Shakira statue in Barranquilla cost?
In late 2023, a 21-foot-tall bronze likeness of Shakira was unveiled on a waterfront promenade in Barranquilla. The city’s then-mayor, Jaime Pumarejo, commissioned Colombian sculptor Yino Márquez to create the statue of the city’s treasured pop icon, along with a sculpture of the city’s coat of arms.
According to the New York Times, the two sculptures cost the city the equivalent of around $180,000. A plaque at the statue’s base reads, “A heart that composes, hips that don’t lie, an unmatched talent, a voice that moves the masses and bare feet that march for the good of children and humanity.”
Related: Taylor Swift net worth: The most successful entertainer joins the billionaire's club
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Delta Air Lines adds a new route travelers have been asking for
The new Delta seasonal flight to the popular destination will run daily on a Boeing 767-300.
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Those who have tried to book a flight from North America to Europe in the summer of 2023 know just how high travel demand to the continent has spiked.
At 2.93 billion, visitors to the countries making up the European Union had finally reached pre-pandemic levels last year while North Americans in particular were booking trips to both large metropolises such as Paris and Milan as well as smaller cities growing increasingly popular among tourists.
Related: A popular European city is introducing the highest 'tourist tax' yet
As a result, U.S.-based airlines have been re-evaluating their networks to add more direct routes to smaller European destinations that most travelers would have previously needed to reach by train or transfer flight with a local airline.
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Delta Air Lines: ‘Glad to offer customers increased choice…’
By the end of March, Delta Air Lines (DAL) will be restarting its route between New York’s JFK and Marco Polo International Airport in Venice as well as launching two new flights to Venice from Atlanta. One will start running this month while the other will be added during peak demand in the summer.
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“As one of the most beautiful cities in the world, Venice is hugely popular with U.S. travelers, and our flights bring valuable tourism and trade opportunities to the city and the region as well as unrivalled opportunities for Venetians looking to explore destinations across the Americas,” Delta’s SVP for Europe Matteo Curcio said in a statement. “We’re glad to offer customers increased choice this summer with flights from New York and additional service from Atlanta.”
The JFK-Venice flight will run on a Boeing 767-300 (BA) and have 216 seats including higher classes such as Delta One, Delta Premium Select and Delta Comfort Plus.
Delta offers these features on the new flight
Both the New York and Atlanta flights are seasonal routes that will be pulled out of service in October. Both will run daily while the first route will depart New York at 8:55 p.m. and arrive in Venice at 10:15 a.m. local time on the way there, while leaving Venice at 12:15 p.m. to arrive at JFK at 5:05 p.m. on the way back.
According to Delta, this will bring its service to 17 flights from different U.S. cities to Venice during the peak summer period. As with most Delta flights at this point, passengers in all fare classes will have access to free Wi-Fi during the flight.
Those flying in Delta’s highest class or with access through airline status or a credit card will also be able to use the new Delta lounge that is part of the airline’s $12 billion terminal renovation and is slated to open to travelers in the coming months. The space will take up more than 40,000 square feet and have an outdoor terrace.
“Delta One customers can stretch out in a lie-flat seat and enjoy premium amenities like plush bedding made from recycled plastic bottles, more beverage options, and a seasonal chef-curated four-course meal,” Delta said of the new route. “[…] All customers can enjoy a wide selection of in-flight entertainment options and stay connected with Wi-Fi and enjoy free mobile messaging.”
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Stock Market Today: Stocks turn lower as factory inflation spikes, retail sales miss target
Stocks will navigate the last major data releases prior to next week’s Fed rate meeting in Washington.
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Check back for updates throughout the trading day
U.S. stocks edged lower Thursday following a trio of key economic releases that have added to the current inflation puzzle as investors shift focus to the Federal Reserve's March policy meeting next week in Washington.
Updated at 9:59 AM EDT
Red start
Stocks are now falling sharply following the PPI inflation data and retail sales miss, with the S&P 500 marked 18 points lower, or 0.36%, in the opening half hour of trading.
The Dow, meanwhile, was marked 92 points lower while the Nasdaq slipped 67 points.
Treasury yields are also on the move, with 2-year notes rising 5 basis points on the session to 4.679% and 10-year notes pegged 7 basis points higher at 4.271%.
The probability of a June rate cut has moved below 60% after the higher-than-expected CPI/PPI reports. A week ago this probability was 74% and a month ago it was 82%. pic.twitter.com/9W01oWU96G
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) March 14, 2024
Updated at 9:44 AM EDT
Under Water
Under Armour (UAA) shares slumped firmly lower in early trading following the sportswear group's decision to bring back founder Kevin Plank as CEO, replacing the outgoing Stephanie Linnartz.
Plank, who founded Under Armour in 1996, left the group in May of 2021 just weeks before the group revealed that it was co-operating with investigations from both the Securities and Exchange Commission and the U.S. Department of Justice into the company's revenue recognition accounting.
Under Armour shares were marked 10.6% lower in early trading to change hands at $7.21 each.
Updated at 9:22 AM EDT
Steely resolve
U.S. Steel (X) shares extended their two-day decline Thursday, falling 5.75% in pre-market trading following multiple reports that suggest President Joe Biden will push to prevent Japan's Nippon Steel from buying the Pittsburgh-based group.
Both Reuters and the Associated Press have said Biden will express his views to Prime Minister Kishida Yuko ahead of a planned State Visit next month at the White House.
Related: US Steel soars on $15 billion Nippon Steel takeover; United Steelworkers slams deal
Updated at 8:52 AM EDT
Clear as mud
Retail sales rebounded last month, but the overall tally of $700.7 billion missed Street forecasts and suggests the recent uptick in inflation could be holding back discretionary spending.
A separate reading of factory inflation, meanwhile, showed prices spiking by 1.6%, on the year, and 0.6% on the month, amid a jump in goods prices.
U.S. stocks held earlier gains following the data release, with futures tied to the S&P 500 indicating an opening bell gain of 10 points, while the Dow was called 140 points higher. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, is looking at a more modest 40 point gain.
Benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields edged 3 basis points lower to 4.213% while two-year notes were little-changed at 4.626%.
The #PPI troughed 8 months ago, yet the economic consensus and even the #Fed believes #inflation has been conquered. Forget the forecasts for multiple rate cuts. pic.twitter.com/ZNIiKLWdFA
— Richard Bernstein Advisors (@RBAdvisors) March 14, 2024
Stock Market Today
Stocks finished lower last night, with the S&P 500 ending modestly in the red and the Nasdaq falling around 0.5%. The declines came amid an uptick in Treasury yields tied to concern that inflation pressures have failed to ease over the opening months of the year.
A better-than-expected auction of $22 billion in 30-year bonds, drawing the strongest overall demand since last June, steadied the overall market, but stocks still slipped into the close with an eye towards today's dataset.
The Commerce Department will publish its February reading of factory-gate inflation at 8:30 am Eastern Time. Analysts are expecting a slowdown in the key core reading, which feeds into the Fed's favored PCE price index.
Retail sales figures for the month are also set for an 8:30 am release as investors search for clues on consumer strength, tied to a resilient job market. Those factors could give the Fed more justification to wait until the summer months to begin the first of its three projected rate cuts.
"The case for a gradual but sustained slowdown in growth in consumers’ spending from 2023’s robust pace is persuasive," said Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics.
"Most households have run down the excess savings accumulated during the pandemic, while the cost of credit has jumped and last year’s plunge in home sales has depressed demand housing-related retail items like furniture and appliances," he added.
Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields are holding steady at 4.196% heading into the start of the New York trading session, while 2-year notes were pegged at 4.628%.
With Fed officials in a quiet period, requiring no public comments ahead of next week's meeting in Washington, the U.S. dollar index is trading in a narrow range against its global peers and was last marked 0.06% higher at 102.852.
On Wall Street, futures tied to the S&P 500 are indicating an opening bell gain of around 19 points, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average indicating a 140-point advance.
The tech-focused Nasdaq, which is up 7.77% for the year, is priced for a gain of around 95 points, with Tesla (TSLA) once again sliding into the red after ending the Wednesday session at a 10-month low.
In Europe, the regionwide Stoxx 600 was marked 0.35% higher in early Frankfurt trading, while Britain's FTSE 100 slipped 0.09% in London.
Overnight in Asia, the Nikkei 225 gained 0.29% as investors looked to a key series of wage negotiation figures from key unions that are likely to see the biggest year-on-year pay increases in three decades.
The broader MSCI ex-Japan benchmark, meanwhile, rose 0.18% into the close of trading.
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bonds pandemic dow jones sp 500 nasdaq ftse stocks rate cut fed federal reserve home sales white house japan europe
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Stock Market Today: Stocks turn lower as factory inflation spikes, retail sales miss target
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