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Blue Tower Asset Management 3Q20 Commentary: Berry Global Group

Blue Tower Asset Management 3Q20 Commentary: Berry Global Group

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Berry Global Group

Blue Tower Asset Management commentary for the third quarter ended September 2020, discussing their new position Berry Global Group Inc (NYSE:BERY).

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Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Our strategy composite had another solid quarter in Q3 2020, recording a 10.44% gain, net of fees (10.78% gross). The biggest contributor to our performance this quarter was Cornerstone Building Brands which reported an excellent quarter where demand exceeded their capacity for window production and revenues far exceeded analyst consensus. Our bullish thesis described in our Q2 2019 letter on Cornerstone and the US construction sector in general appears to be playing out as expected. New housing starts for June, July, and August were all higher year-over-year than in 20191.

This quarter we exited our long-held positions in Sto AG and Fonar. While they are both great companies, we needed to free up capital for other opportunities currently presenting themselves. Fonar has been a successful investment for us, and we closed out our position at $24.99 per share, a significant appreciation from our average purchase price. In the five weeks since our liquidation, Fonar stock has fallen almost 20%. If it falls to a sufficiently attractive price, we may repurchase it.

The upcoming US national election is less than a month away. While the outcome could lead to significant policy changes, it is important to remember that our portfolio is robust due to the competitive advantages of our holdings as well as the portfolio’s overall diversification across industries and geographies. Most of our portfolio at the end of the third quarter was outside the US, and some of our US companies have significant international revenues.

Four areas of potential policy changes to pay attention to are 1) increased regulatory restrictions on consumer lending, 2) healthcare policy changes, 3) stimulus measures for dealing with the fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic, and 4) corporate tax rate changes.

Financial regulations on consumer credit could affect our two consumer finance portfolio holdings, EZPW and ENVA. We do not currently have any healthcare stocks in the portfolio, but we may add some when we get better clarity on what healthcare policy changes will result from the election. If we have a divided government between congressional houses and the presidency, a fiscal stimulus is less likely to occur. This would have a macroeconomic depressive effect on the US and to a lesser extent the rest of the world economy. The Democratic presidential nominee, Joe Biden, has campaigned on reversing many of the corporate tax reductions carried out during the Trump presidency, which would reduce the earnings of US corporations.

We expect the elevated market volatility from the pandemic and election uncertainty to continue for at least another two quarters. As new information relevant to holdings in our portfolio or companies on our watchlists come in, there is always the possibility that the market does not respond correctly or in a timely manner. There will also be irrational sentiment-driven swings in share prices. We will endeavor to trade prudently in response to these changes.

As I do periodically in these letters, I would like to introduce our investors to a new holding which entered the portfolio this year, Berry Global, with an overview of the business and our investment rationale for holding it.

Berry Global Group Company Overview

In the current volatile investing environment created by the potential policy changes from the 2020 US elections and the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, one safe harbor for investors can be found in recession-proof consumer staples companies. Berry Global (formerly Berry Plastics) is one of the largest plastics manufacturers is in the world with 293 production facilities in 39 countries. The customer base of Berry is extremely diverse with over 13,000 different customers which includes multinationals companies such as Procter & Gamble and Unilever. The company’s diverse collection of currently produced products is comprised of approximately 100,000 unique SKUs. Their business is extremely recession resistant as evidenced by their persistent revenues and margins throughout the 2008 global financial crisis.

Part of the reason for the current investment opportunity in Berry Global, is that some investors see it as being a commodity business lacking competitive advantages. However, Berry Global is well into the process of building these. Berry has a wholly-owned packaging design studio, Blue Clover Studios, to help smaller customers design packaging solutions for their products. For larger customers, they have embedded design teams to help integrate customer products with the newest plastics engineering technologies at Berry. While investors in businesses that have competitive-advantage moats have been well-rewarded, the even greater advantage goes to investors in businesses that are in the process of creating new moats.

Growth through Acquisition

Berry Global has been ignored by investors who are deterred by their very high debt levels (currently 4.5x net debt to non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA) and the belief that plastics manufacturing is a low-barrier to entry commodity business. They ignore the changing dynamics of the industry and Berry’s success at executing their acquisition strategy to grow the business.

Berry Global acquires companies using primarily debt and then integrates them into their business with significant margin improvement. On average, Berry has managed to achieve cost synergies that are roughly 5% of the annual revenues of the targeted company. These synergies will vary depending on the prior scale and efficiency of the target. 2/5 of the cost synergies (2% of revenue) is from superior prices on resin purchases. Berry Global has significant scale and purchases 3.2 billion kilograms per year, making it the largest purchaser of plastic resins in the world among plastic manufacturers. They are able to use their scale to gain considerable price concessions from resin producers reducing the production costs after acquisition. The other 3/5 of cost synergies (3% of revenue) comes from manufacturing economies of scale and more efficient business practices. These additional acquisitions only make their scale advantage greater going forward.

The growth of hydrofracking in the United States and the current cheap price of oil have been to their benefit. The number of resin suppliers in the marketplace has been growing, weakening the negotiating ability of resin suppliers when dealing with plastic manufacturers like Berry.

This cheaper cost of resin is a benefit in making plastic products more attractive as roughly half of the current manufacturing cost of food containers comes from the resin price. For the vast majority of Berry Global’s manufacturing contracts, the cost of resin material is contractually passed through to the customer, reducing the variability in the operating margins of Berry. This can be seen in the chart below from the company demonstrating their consistent margins in the face of heightened resin price volatility.

BERY

Recent Acquisition/Divestiture History

Berry Global has made many major acquisitions since their IPO which are summarized in the table below. For many of the acquired targets, figures were not publicly available for their revenues or EBITDA at the time of acquisition and are left blank in the table. Seal For Life is also included as the sole major divestiture of the company in this time period.

BERY

Berry Global purchased Avintiv, which was a portfolio company of the private equity wing of Blackstone, in 2015. Avintiv received most of their revenues from health and hygiene markets, and had a significant business in specialized industrial products. This gave them exposure to international markets and access to new market sectors in healthcare. These healthcare products have higher gross margins than Berry’s other products. At the time of acquisition, the company expected to realize over $50 million per year in cost synergies.

The July 2019 acquisition of UK-based RPC gave Berry Global a dramatically increased scale and a global footprint. RPC had facilities in 33 countries employing 25,000 workers. By revenues and enterprise value, it was nearly half the size of Berry Global prior to the acquisition. The notes offering used to generate some of the funds for the transaction has a maturity of 2026 and no financial maintenance covenants. The company expected $150 million of annual synergies between the two companies and that the transaction will be accretive to earnings and free cash flow generation.

Free Cash Flow Growth

Driven by successful acquisitions, free cash flow per share has grown at the annual rate of 16% over the past 5 years.

Berry Global Group

Segment Information

While there are many other plastic goods manufacturers, Berry Global focuses on product lines where they can maintain a dominant position. Berry considers themselves the market leader in the majority of their portfolio of product lines. Since the acquisition of RPC Global, they have been divided into 4 business segments seen in the chart below. The operating margins of the segments differ with the highest margin business being the Health, Hygiene & Specialties segment. Despite only being 20% of revenues, this segment was 49% of operating income for FY2019.

Segment Information - FY2019

Berry Global Group

It is instructive to examine the relationships between Berry Global, its suppliers, and customers through a Porter’s Five Forces framework. Porter’s Five Forces is a framework for analyzing the competitive position of a company. Plastic goods are produced from polymer resins, and these polymer resins are produced from petrochemical intermediates. The growth of hydrodynamic fracking has dramatically decreased the cost of oil and gas production in the United States and has led to an increase in the number of resin producers that supply Berry. On the customer side, small startup consumer brands are able to use online advertising and distribution in order to take market share from the supermarketdistributed mega-brands. These smaller brands will have less bargaining power against container manufacturers like Berry. At the same time, increases in mergers of plastic producers have created more concentration and an oligopoly dynamic among major manufacturers. As the bargaining power of their suppliers and customers weaken and the competitive rivalry in their industry weakens, the ability of Berry to earn outsized economic returns strengthens.

Valuation

To get an idea of comparable valuation, we can take a look at several similar plastics and packaging companies. If we were to hold BERY at the same average EV/EBITDA of this selected peer group, the implied share price would be $123.47. EV/EBITDA is more appropriate to use than valuation ratios that do not take debt into account due to the widely varying leverage levels among this group. Berry Global trades at this discount despite its earnings growth being significantly higher than the averages for this peer group.

Berry Global Group

Several Potential Future Capital Allocation Paths

There are multiple possible paths for Berry that will all result in good investor outcomes. The best result would be if the company is able to continue successfully acquiring and integrating smaller plastics companies into their corporate structure. Over the past five years, this acquisition strategy has allowed the company to grow EBITDA/share by 16% annualized. If their acquisitions slow down and BERY reaches their deleveraging target of <4x debt-to-EBITDA, investors can still have a great outcome from a deleveraging that causes a market rerating of the stock to a multiple of EV/EBITDA similar to comparable companies. If the company remains at a cheap valuation after the company reaches their deleveraging target, the company can begin buybacks and compound investor capital in that manner. Considering all of the above, Berry Global should give excellent returns to investors at today’s prices.

I hope this analysis of Berry Global has been informative about our position in the company and the investment process we use in constructing our portfolio. Please do not hesitate to contact me with any questions during these interesting times.

Best regards,

Andrew Oskoui, CFA

Portfolio Manager

The post Blue Tower Asset Management 3Q20 Commentary: Berry Global Group appeared first on ValueWalk.

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Shakira’s net worth

After 12 albums, a tax evasion case, and now a towering bronze idol sculpted in her image, how much is Shakira worth more than 4 decades into her care…

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Shakira’s considerable net worth is no surprise, given her massive popularity in Latin America, the U.S., and elsewhere. 

In fact, the belly-dancing contralto queen is the second-wealthiest Latin-America-born pop singer of all time after Gloria Estefan. (Interestingly, Estefan actually helped a young Shakira translate her breakout album “Laundry Service” into English, hugely propelling her stateside success.)

Since releasing her first record at age 13, Shakira has spent decades recording albums in both Spanish and English and performing all over the world. Over the course of her 40+ year career, she helped thrust Latin pop music into the American mainstream, paving the way for the subsequent success of massively popular modern acts like Karol G and Bad Bunny.

In late 2023, a 21-foot-tall bronze sculpture of Shakira, the barefoot belly dancer of Barranquilla, was unveiled at the city's waterfront. The statue was commissioned by the city's former mayor and other leadership.

Photo by STR&sol;AFP via Getty Images

In December 2023, a 21-foot-tall beachside bronze statue of the “Hips Don’t Lie” singer was unveiled in her Colombian hometown of Barranquilla, making her a permanent fixture in the city’s skyline and cementing her legacy as one of Latin America’s most influential entertainers.

After 12 albums, a plethora of film and television appearances, a highly publicized tax evasion case, and now a towering bronze idol sculpted in her image, how much is Shakira worth? What does her income look like? And how does she spend her money?

Related: Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson's net worth: How the new TKO Board Member built his wealth from $7

How much is Shakira worth?

In late 2023, Spanish sports and lifestyle publication Marca reported Shakira’s net worth at $400 million, citing Forbes as the figure’s source (although Forbes’ profile page for Shakira does not list a net worth — and didn’t when that article was published).

Most other sources list the singer’s wealth at an estimated $300 million, and almost all of these point to Celebrity Net Worth — a popular but dubious celebrity wealth estimation site — as the source for the figure.

A $300 million net worth would make Shakira the third-richest Latina pop star after Gloria Estefan ($500 million) and Jennifer Lopez ($400 million), and the second-richest Latin-America-born pop singer after Estefan (JLo is Puerto Rican but was born in New York).

Shakira’s income: How much does she make annually?

Entertainers like Shakira don’t have predictable paychecks like ordinary salaried professionals. Instead, annual take-home earnings vary quite a bit depending on each year’s album sales, royalties, film and television appearances, streaming revenue, and other sources of income. As one might expect, Shakira’s earnings have fluctuated quite a bit over the years.

From June 2018 to June 2019, for instance, Shakira was the 10th highest-earning female musician, grossing $35 million, according to Forbes. This wasn’t her first time gracing the top 10, though — back in 2012, she also landed the #10 spot, bringing in $20 million, according to Billboard.

In 2023, Billboard listed Shakira as the 16th-highest-grossing Latin artist of all time.

Shakira performed alongside producer Bizarrap during the 2023 Latin Grammy Awards Gala in Seville.

Photo By Maria Jose Lopez&sol;Europa Press via Getty Images

How much does Shakira make from her concerts and tours?

A large part of Shakira’s wealth comes from her world tours, during which she sometimes sells out massive stadiums and arenas full of passionate fans eager to see her dance and sing live.

According to a 2020 report by Pollstar, she sold over 2.7 million tickets across 190 shows that grossed over $189 million between 2000 and 2020. This landed her the 19th spot on a list of female musicians ranked by touring revenue during that period. In 2023, Billboard reported a more modest touring revenue figure of $108.1 million across 120 shows.

In 2003, Shakira reportedly generated over $4 million from a single show on Valentine’s Day at Foro Sol in Mexico City. 15 years later, in 2018, Shakira grossed around $76.5 million from her El Dorado World Tour, according to Touring Data.

Related: RuPaul's net worth: Everything to know about the cultural icon and force behind 'Drag Race'

How much has Shakira made from her album sales?

According to a 2023 profile in Variety, Shakira has sold over 100 million records throughout her career. “Laundry Service,” the pop icon’s fifth studio album, was her most successful, selling over 13 million copies worldwide, according to TheRichest.

Exactly how much money Shakira has taken home from her album sales is unclear, but in 2008, it was widely reported that she signed a 10-year contract with LiveNation to the tune of between $70 and $100 million to release her subsequent albums and manage her tours.

Shakira and JLo co-headlined the 2020 Super Bowl Halftime Show in Florida.

Photo by Kevin Winter&sol;Getty Images&rpar;

How much did Shakira make from her Super Bowl and World Cup performances?

Shakira co-wrote one of her biggest hits, “Waka Waka (This Time for Africa),” after FIFA selected her to create the official anthem for the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. She performed the song, along with several of her existing fan-favorite tracks, during the event’s opening ceremonies. TheThings reported in 2023 that the song generated $1.4 million in revenue, citing Popnable for the figure.

A decade later, 2020’s Superbowl halftime show featured Shakira and Jennifer Lopez as co-headliners with guest performances by Bad Bunny and J Balvin. The 14-minute performance was widely praised as a high-energy celebration of Latin music and dance, but as is typical for Super Bowl shows, neither Shakira nor JLo was compensated beyond expenses and production costs.

The exposure value that comes with performing in the Super Bowl Halftime Show, though, is significant. It is typically the most-watched television event in the U.S. each year, and in 2020, a 30-second Super Bowl ad spot cost between $5 and $6 million.

How much did Shakira make as a coach on “The Voice?”

Shakira served as a team coach on the popular singing competition program “The Voice” during the show’s fourth and sixth seasons. On the show, celebrity musicians coach up-and-coming amateurs in a team-based competition that eventually results in a single winner. In 2012, The Hollywood Reporter wrote that Shakira’s salary as a coach on “The Voice” was $12 million.

Related: John Cena's net worth: The wrestler-turned-actor's investments, businesses, and more

How does Shakira spend her money?

Shakira doesn’t just make a lot of money — she spends it, too. Like many wealthy entertainers, she’s purchased her share of luxuries, but Barranquilla’s barefoot belly dancer is also a prolific philanthropist, having donated tens of millions to charitable causes throughout her career.

Private island

Back in 2006, she teamed up with Roger Waters of Pink Floyd fame and Spanish singer Alejandro Sanz to purchase Bonds Cay, a 550-acre island in the Bahamas, which was listed for $16 million at the time.

Along with her two partners in the purchase, Shakira planned to develop the island to feature housing, hotels, and an artists’ retreat designed to host a revolving cast of artists-in-residence. This plan didn’t come to fruition, though, and as of this article’s last update, the island was once again for sale on Vladi Private Islands.

Real estate and vehicles

Like most wealthy celebs, Shakira’s portfolio of high-end playthings also features an array of luxury properties and vehicles, including a home in Barcelona, a villa in Cyprus, a Miami mansion, and a rotating cast of Mercedes-Benz vehicles.

Philanthropy and charity

Shakira doesn’t just spend her massive wealth on herself; the “Queen of Latin Music” is also a dedicated philanthropist and regularly donates portions of her earnings to the Fundación Pies Descalzos, or “Barefoot Foundation,” a charity she founded in 1997 to “improve the education and social development of children in Colombia, which has suffered decades of conflict.” The foundation focuses on providing meals for children and building and improving educational infrastructure in Shakira’s hometown of Barranquilla as well as four other Colombian communities.

In addition to her efforts with the Fundación Pies Descalzos, Shakira has made a number of other notable donations over the years. In 2007, she diverted a whopping $40 million of her wealth to help rebuild community infrastructure in Peru and Nicaragua in the wake of a devastating 8.0 magnitude earthquake. Later, during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, Shakira donated a large supply of N95 masks for healthcare workers and ventilators for hospital patients to her hometown of Barranquilla.

Back in 2010, the UN honored Shakira with a medal to recognize her dedication to social justice, at which time the Director General of the International Labour Organization described her as a “true ambassador for children and young people.”

On November 20, 2023 (which was supposed to be her first day of trial), Shakira reached a deal with the prosecution that resulted in a three-year suspended sentence and around $8 million in fines.

Photo by Adria Puig&sol;Anadolu via Getty Images

Shakira’s tax fraud scandal: How much did she pay?

In 2018, prosecutors in Spain initiated a tax evasion case against Shakira, alleging she lived primarily in Spain from 2012 to 2014 and therefore failed to pay around $14.4 million in taxes to the Spanish government. Spanish law requires anyone who is “domiciled” (i.e., living primarily) in Spain for more than half of the year to pay income taxes.

During the period in question, Shakira listed the Bahamas as her primary residence but did spend some time in Spain, as she was dating Gerard Piqué, a professional footballer and Spanish citizen. The couple’s first son, Milan, was also born in Barcelona during this period. 

Shakira maintained that she spent far fewer than 183 days per year in Spain during each of the years in question. In an interview with Elle Magazine, the pop star opined that “Spanish tax authorities saw that I was dating a Spanish citizen and started to salivate. It's clear they wanted to go after that money no matter what."

Prosecutors in the case sought a fine of almost $26 million and a possible eight-year prison stint, but in November of 2023, Shakira took a deal to close the case, accepting a fine of around $8 million and a three-year suspended sentence to avoid going to trial. In reference to her decision to take the deal, Shakira stated, "While I was determined to defend my innocence in a trial that my lawyers were confident would have ruled in my favour [had the trial proceeded], I have made the decision to finally resolve this matter with the best interest of my kids at heart who do not want to see their mom sacrifice her personal well-being in this fight."

How much did the Shakira statue in Barranquilla cost?

In late 2023, a 21-foot-tall bronze likeness of Shakira was unveiled on a waterfront promenade in Barranquilla. The city’s then-mayor, Jaime Pumarejo, commissioned Colombian sculptor Yino Márquez to create the statue of the city’s treasured pop icon, along with a sculpture of the city’s coat of arms.

According to the New York Times, the two sculptures cost the city the equivalent of around $180,000. A plaque at the statue’s base reads, “A heart that composes, hips that don’t lie, an unmatched talent, a voice that moves the masses and bare feet that march for the good of children and humanity.” 

Related: Taylor Swift net worth: The most successful entertainer joins the billionaire's club

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Delta Air Lines adds a new route travelers have been asking for

The new Delta seasonal flight to the popular destination will run daily on a Boeing 767-300.

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Those who have tried to book a flight from North America to Europe in the summer of 2023 know just how high travel demand to the continent has spiked.

At 2.93 billion, visitors to the countries making up the European Union had finally reached pre-pandemic levels last year while North Americans in particular were booking trips to both large metropolises such as Paris and Milan as well as smaller cities growing increasingly popular among tourists.

Related: A popular European city is introducing the highest 'tourist tax' yet

As a result, U.S.-based airlines have been re-evaluating their networks to add more direct routes to smaller European destinations that most travelers would have previously needed to reach by train or transfer flight with a local airline.

The new flight will take place on a Boeing 767-300.

Shutterstock

Delta Air Lines: ‘Glad to offer customers increased choice…’

By the end of March, Delta Air Lines  (DAL)  will be restarting its route between New York’s JFK and Marco Polo International Airport in Venice as well as launching two new flights to Venice from Atlanta. One will start running this month while the other will be added during peak demand in the summer.

More Travel:

“As one of the most beautiful cities in the world, Venice is hugely popular with U.S. travelers, and our flights bring valuable tourism and trade opportunities to the city and the region as well as unrivalled opportunities for Venetians looking to explore destinations across the Americas,” Delta’s SVP for Europe Matteo Curcio said in a statement. “We’re glad to offer customers increased choice this summer with flights from New York and additional service from Atlanta.”

The JFK-Venice flight will run on a Boeing 767-300  (BA)  and have 216 seats including higher classes such as Delta One, Delta Premium Select and Delta Comfort Plus.

Delta offers these features on the new flight

Both the New York and Atlanta flights are seasonal routes that will be pulled out of service in October. Both will run daily while the first route will depart New York at 8:55 p.m. and arrive in Venice at 10:15 a.m. local time on the way there, while leaving Venice at 12:15 p.m. to arrive at JFK at 5:05 p.m. on the way back.

According to Delta, this will bring its service to 17 flights from different U.S. cities to Venice during the peak summer period. As with most Delta flights at this point, passengers in all fare classes will have access to free Wi-Fi during the flight.

Those flying in Delta’s highest class or with access through airline status or a credit card will also be able to use the new Delta lounge that is part of the airline’s $12 billion terminal renovation and is slated to open to travelers in the coming months. The space will take up more than 40,000 square feet and have an outdoor terrace.

“Delta One customers can stretch out in a lie-flat seat and enjoy premium amenities like plush bedding made from recycled plastic bottles, more beverage options, and a seasonal chef-curated four-course meal,” Delta said of the new route. “[…] All customers can enjoy a wide selection of in-flight entertainment options and stay connected with Wi-Fi and enjoy free mobile messaging.”

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Stock Market Today: Stocks turn lower as factory inflation spikes, retail sales miss target

Stocks will navigate the last major data releases prior to next week’s Fed rate meeting in Washington.

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Check back for updates throughout the trading day

U.S. stocks edged lower Thursday following a trio of key economic releases that have added to the current inflation puzzle as investors shift focus to the Federal Reserve's March policy meeting next week in Washington.

Updated at 9:59 AM EDT

Red start

Stocks are now falling sharply following the PPI inflation data and retail sales miss, with the S&P 500 marked 18 points lower, or 0.36%, in the opening half hour of trading.

The Dow, meanwhile, was marked 92 points lower while the Nasdaq slipped 67 points.

Treasury yields are also on the move, with 2-year notes rising 5 basis points on the session to 4.679% and 10-year notes pegged 7 basis points higher at 4.271%.

Updated at 9:44 AM EDT

Under Water

Under Armour  (UAA)  shares slumped firmly lower in early trading following the sportswear group's decision to bring back founder Kevin Plank as CEO, replacing the outgoing Stephanie Linnartz.

Plank, who founded Under Armour in 1996, left the group in May of 2021 just weeks before the group revealed that it was co-operating with investigations from both the Securities and Exchange Commission and the U.S. Department of Justice into the company's revenue recognition accounting.

Under Armour shares were marked 10.6% lower in early trading to change hands at $7.21 each.

Source: Under Armour Investor Relations

Updated at 9:22 AM EDT

Steely resolve

U.S. Steel  (X)  shares extended their two-day decline Thursday, falling 5.75% in pre-market trading following multiple reports that suggest President Joe Biden will push to prevent Japan's Nippon Steel from buying the Pittsburgh-based group.

Both Reuters and the Associated Press have said Biden will express his views to Prime Minister Kishida Yuko ahead of a planned State Visit next month at the White House. 

Related: US Steel soars on $15 billion Nippon Steel takeover; United Steelworkers slams deal

Updated at 8:52 AM EDT

Clear as mud

Retail sales rebounded last month, but the overall tally of $700.7 billion missed Street forecasts and suggests the recent uptick in inflation could be holding back discretionary spending.

A separate reading of factory inflation, meanwhile, showed prices spiking by 1.6%, on the year, and 0.6% on the month, amid a jump in goods prices.

U.S. stocks held earlier gains following the data release, with futures tied to the S&P 500 indicating an opening bell gain of 10 points, while the Dow was called 140 points higher. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, is looking at a more modest 40 point gain.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields edged 3 basis points lower to 4.213% while two-year notes were little-changed at 4.626%.

Stock Market Today

Stocks finished lower last night, with the S&P 500 ending modestly in the red and the Nasdaq falling around 0.5%. The declines came amid an uptick in Treasury yields tied to concern that inflation pressures have failed to ease over the opening months of the year.

A better-than-expected auction of $22 billion in 30-year bonds, drawing the strongest overall demand since last June, steadied the overall market, but stocks still slipped into the close with an eye towards today's dataset.

The Commerce Department will publish its February reading of factory-gate inflation at 8:30 am Eastern Time. Analysts are expecting a slowdown in the key core reading, which feeds into the Fed's favored PCE price index.

Retail sales figures for the month are also set for an 8:30 am release as investors search for clues on consumer strength, tied to a resilient job market. Those factors could give the Fed more justification to wait until the summer months to begin the first of its three projected rate cuts.

"The case for a gradual but sustained slowdown in growth in consumers’ spending from 2023’s robust pace is persuasive," said Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics. 

"Most households have run down the excess savings accumulated during the pandemic, while the cost of credit has jumped and last year’s plunge in home sales has depressed demand housing-related retail items like furniture and appliances," he added.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields are holding steady at 4.196% heading into the start of the New York trading session, while 2-year notes were pegged at 4.628%.

With Fed officials in a quiet period, requiring no public comments ahead of next week's meeting in Washington, the U.S. dollar index is trading in a narrow range against its global peers and was last marked 0.06% higher at 102.852.

On Wall Street, futures tied to the S&P 500 are indicating an opening bell gain of around 19 points, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average indicating a 140-point advance.

The tech-focused Nasdaq, which is up 7.77% for the year, is priced for a gain of around 95 points, with Tesla  (TSLA)  once again sliding into the red after ending the Wednesday session at a 10-month low.

In Europe, the regionwide Stoxx 600 was marked 0.35% higher in early Frankfurt trading, while Britain's FTSE 100 slipped 0.09% in London.

Overnight in Asia, the Nikkei 225 gained 0.29% as investors looked to a key series of wage negotiation figures from key unions that are likely to see the biggest year-on-year pay increases in three decades.

The broader MSCI ex-Japan benchmark, meanwhile, rose 0.18% into the close of trading. 

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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