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Bitcoin price cracks $30K, possibly clearing a path for SOL, LINK, AAVE and STX

Bitcoin’s strong rally to $30,000 may have kick started a sharp recovery in SOL, LINK, AAVE and STX.
Bitcoin (BTC) had a good week…

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Bitcoin’s strong rally to $30,000 may have kick started a sharp recovery in SOL, LINK, AAVE and STX.

Bitcoin (BTC) had a good week with prices rising about 10% to reach the psychologically important level of $30,000. After the rally, the question troubling investors is whether the uptrend will continue or is time for a reversal to happen.

Trading team Stockmoney Lizards recently said that Bitcoin may soon break above its overhead resistance and start a sharp rally. They believe the approval for the exchange-traded fund will drive mass adoption and trigger the rally before the halving due in April 2024.

Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360

A positive development this week was that Bitcoin’s strength rubbed off to several altcoins, which surged above their respective overhead resistance levels. This suggests that the sentiment is gradually turning positive and that it may be time to consider buying selectively.

Typically, the coins that lead the markets higher are the ones that tend to do well. Laggards are generally the last to perform, hence could be avoided initially.

Let’s look at the charts of the top-5 cryptocurrencies that may outperform in the near term.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin is witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near the $30,000 mark, but a positive sign is that the buyers have not given up much ground.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

A consolidation near the current level suggests that the bulls are in no hurry to book profits as they anticipate another leg higher. That could catapult the price to the overhead resistance zone between $31,000 and $32,400.

Contrarily, if the price turns down from $31,000, the BTC/USDT pair could drop to the 20-day exponential moving average ($28,160). If the price snaps back from this level, the bulls will again try to clear the overhead hurdle.

The positive sentiment will be negated on a break below the 20-day EMA. That could keep the pair stuck inside the $31,000 to $24,800 range for some more time.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The pair is in an uptrend as seen on the 4-hour chart. Normally, during an ascent, traders buy the dip to the 20-EMA. If that happens, it will signal that the sentiment remains bullish and every minor dip is being purchased. The pair may then continue its journey toward $32,400.

Conversely, if the price skids below the 20-EMA, it will indicate that the traders may be closing their positions in a hurry. That could open the gates for a further decline to the important support at $28,143.

Solana price analysis

Solana (SOL) broke out of the neckline on Oct. 19, completing a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern. This setup has a target objective of $32.81.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The overbought levels on the relative strength index (RSI) suggest that a correction is possible. The important support to watch on the downside is $27.12. A strong bounce off this level will indicate that the bulls have flipped the level into support. That will improve the prospects of the continuation of the uptrend. Above $32.81, the rally could hit $39.

Time is running out for the bears. If they want to halt the up-move, they will have to drag the price back below $27.12. The SOL/USDT pair may then tumble to the neckline. This remains the key level to keep an eye on because a drop below it will suggest that the break above $27.12 may have been a fake-out.

SOL/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 4-hour chart shows that the bulls are facing stiff resistance near $30. This may start a pullback which could reach the breakout level of $27.12. Buyers are expected to defend this level with vigor. A solid bounce off this level may suggest the resumption of the up-move.

On the contrary, if the price turns down and breaks below $27.12, it will signal that the bears are aggressively selling at higher levels. The pair may then dive to the neckline near $24.50. This level may again witness strong buying by the bulls.

Chainlink price analysis

Chainlink (LINK) has been trading inside a tight range between $5.50 and $9.50 since May 2022 indicating a balance between supply and demand.

LINK/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls tried to resolve the uncertainty to the upside with a break above the range on Oct. 22 but the long wick on the candlestick shows that the bears are not willing to relent. If the bulls do not give up much ground from the current levels, it will enhance the prospects of a rally above $9.50.

The LINK/USDT pair could then start a move toward the pattern target of $13.50. Typically, a breakout from a long consolidation results in a sharp rally. In this case, the uptrend may stretch to $15 and thereafter to $18.

The first support on the downside is at $8.50. If bears tug the price below this level, it will suggest that the range-bound action may continue for a while longer.

LINK/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The pair witnessed a sharp rally from $7.50, which propelled the RSI deep into the overbought territory on the 4-hour chart. This suggests that the rally is overextended in the near term and could result in a pullback or consolidation.

The solid support on the downside is $8.75 and then $8.50. A strong bounce off this zone will suggest that the sentiment remains positive and traders are buying on dips. That will increase the possibility of a retest of $9.75.

On the contrary, a break below the 20-EMA will indicate that the bears are back in the game. The pair may then sump to $7.

Related: Lightning Network faces criticism from pro-XRP lawyer John Deaton

Aave price analysis

Aave (AAVE) rose above the downtrend line on Oct. 21, invalidating the bearish descending triangle setup. Generally, the failure of a negative setup starts a bullish move.

AAVE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Both moving averages have started to turn up and the RSI is in the overbought territory, indicating that bulls are at an advantage. If the price maintains above the downtrend line, the AAVE/USDT pair may first surge to $88 and then to $95.

If bears want to prevent this up-move, they will have to quickly pull the price back below the downtrend line. That may catch a few aggressive bulls on the wrong foot and start a correction to the moving averages. A slide below the 50-day simple moving average ($62) will put the bears back in the driver’s seat.

AAVE/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 4-hour chart shows that the bears tried to stall the relief rally at the downtrend line but the bulls did not give up much ground. The momentum picked up and the pair is on its way higher toward $88.

A minor concern in the short term is that the RSI soared into the overbought territory indicating that a consolidation or correction is possible. On the way down, the first support is at $72. The bears will have to yank the price below the downtrend line to trap the bulls.

Stacks price analysis

Stacks (STX) rose sharply in the past few days, indicating that the bulls are trying to start a new uptrend.

STX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bullish crossover on the moving averages suggests that the bulls have an edge. In the short term, the overbought levels on the RSI indicate that a minor correction or consolidation is possible. The first support on the downside is the 20-day EMA ($0.54).

If the price rebounds off this level, it will signal a change in sentiment from selling on rallies to buying on dips. That will increase the likelihood of the continuation of the up-move. The STX/USDT pair could first rise to $0.80 and subsequently to $0.90.

This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns down and plummets below the 20-day EMA.

STX/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The price has been consolidating in a tight range between $0.61 and $0.65 as seen on the 4-hour chart. This is a positive sign as it shows the bulls are not rushing to the exit as they anticipate another leg higher. If buyers drive the price above $0.65, the pair will attempt a rally to $0.68 and then to $0.75.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-EMA, it will signal profit-booking by short-term traders. The pair may then plunge to the 50-SMA.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

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