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Bitcoin = Anti-Totalitarianism

The battle for financial freedom at the precipice of total government control hinges on our active engagement and collective commitment to protecting our…

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In the face of ongoing challenges to our cherished freedoms, it is imperative to critically examine the forces at play that threaten the very fabric of democracy. The ideals of freedom and open markets are at risk of being undermined by influential political forces seeking to impose oppressive order and control in the name of security. This article delves into the pressing need to fix our manipulated markets, protect Bitcoin and its inherent anti-totalitarian qualities, and inform US policymakers that democratic values are what’s at stake.

The Erosion of Free Markets and Capitalism

People who think we currently have capitalism and free and open markets haven’t been paying attention. The American economic landscape, once a paragon of capitalism, has undergone a seismic shift, particularly since the 2008 financial crisis when lawmakers selectively bailed out the bankers at the expense of the broader economy. The central banking system’s pervasive influence has led to a distortion of free markets, with quantitative easing (QE) being employed as a tool to manipulate the bond market, artificially lowering the cost of capital and thus distorting the prices of…everything. This manipulation has had far-reaching consequences, including the gutting of the middle class and the concentration of wealth in the hands of a few. In the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank failure this March, the deployment of tools such as the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) has further exacerbated these distortions, providing de facto yield curve control for banks, while leaving ordinary citizens to grapple with soaring interest rates and inflation. This divergence from naturally occurring economic markets and the suppression of a free and open cost of capital has pushed us closer to an economic model reminiscent of “you name it” communism regime, threatening the foundational principles of capitalism and democracy.

The Newest Assault on Financial Freedom and Bitcoin

In a recent letter from Senator Elizabeth Warren and numerous congressional members, they leverage international crises to further their own political agenda and curtail financial freedoms. Armed with a freshly published Wall Street Journal article that falsely suggests Hamas raised a significant sum of crypto funding to attack Israel - the truth couldn’t be more obscured. The irony of the claim is that the public Bitcoin blockchain provides evidence that anyone can dispute – which is exactly what happened the day following the Senator’s letter to the President. On October 18, blockchain analysis firm, Chainalysis, clarified that while some terrorist organizations, including Hamas, do leverage cryptocurrencies for funding, the scale is extremely small relative to traditional fiat banking means. They emphasized that the transparency of blockchain technology makes it a less suitable medium for illicit activities, including terrorism financing. Additionally, Chainalysis pointed out that government agencies and private sector organizations can collaborate using blockchain analysis solutions to trace and disrupt the flow of funds to these terrorist groups. They also highlighted the importance of understanding the role of service providers in these financial networks and cautioned against overestimating the scale of terrorism financing in cryptocurrency based on flawed analyses and misinterpretations. Delving deeper into the facts revealed by Chainalysis, it becomes increasingly evident how Senator Warren’s letter dramatically skewed the situation. The detailed analysis zeroes in on a specific address that conducted over 1,300 deposits and 1,200 withdrawals within a mere 7.5 months, with a total inflow of roughly $82 million in cryptocurrency. However, a mere fraction of this amount, approximately $450,000, can be linked back to a wallet associated with terrorist activities (source). This represents a mere 0.3461% of the purported $130 million claimed in the letter—a staggering discrepancy that lays bare the deceptive nature of the narrative being pushed to the White House. Not only has Business Insider reported on October 21 that Hamas operates with an annual budget of $300 million, but a significant portion of its funding also stems from taxing imports into Gaza, as well as international connections with Iran. A country to which the US government recently, and rather ambiguously, may have released $6 billion in fiat currency to in September, just a month prior to the attack on Israel. Unlike Bitcoin, which offers a publicly accessible audit trail, citizens are left in the dark about this substantial financial transaction. The narrative on what was actually released depends heavily on the news outlet or political interest one consults, often resulting in biased and self-serving points of view - the irony. This stark contrast between politically manipulated numbers and the transparent reality a public blockchain provides underscores the urgent need for thorough, factual analysis and the adoption of publicly verifiable monetary units like Bitcoin.

Why Is This So Concerning?

Kneejerk policy reactions, based on false information and poor reporting can have devastating long-term impacts to the US’s competitive economic position and more importantly the liberties and freedoms of the citizens. In what appears to be a coordinated policy response (one day after Senator Warren’s letter), The U.S. Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) came out with a proposal for special measures regarding convertible virtual currency mixing and labeled it a primary money laundering concern. Based on all the information contained in the FinCEN proposal, it opens the door for expansive policy to infringe on the rights of individuals. For example, the increased surveillance and potential loss of privacy could subject individuals running Bitcoin full nodes to unprecedented scrutiny. They might find themselves burdened with regulatory requirements that are not only onerous but also infringe upon their personal privacy, and the privacy of users transacting through their nodes. The uncertainty and legal risks associated with running a full node under these proposed measures could discourage individuals from auditing their property, thus increasing their risk and reliance on bad actors. Bitcoin holders that ran their own node and took custody of their property in 2022 were NOT impacted by fraudulent centralized gate-keepers, like Sam Bankman Fried, and third party custodians that acted maliciously. Additionally, a policy attack on node operators creates less financial freedom for US citizens and an incentive for businesses in this new sector of finance to move offshore. Developers might be discouraged from creating and implementing privacy-enhancing features, limiting the potential and the very essence of American citizens and builders within this country.

What is the essence of a Bitcoin Node and why is it important?

In the gold market, how would you know if someone gave you a pure bar of gold? Well, you can own an XRF (X-ray Fluorescence) device that emits energy waves into the metal to determine the elemental composition based on the frequency of energy that comes back to the device. In short, a purity audit ensures that you have purchased actual gold. Why is this device so important – because if you buy a million dollars of gold, you want to make sure it’s the real stuff, right? In Bitcoin, that purity test is conducted by running a full node. This test can be outsourced to a third party, or it can be conducted by the individual. This point is vital: if a person is NOT allowed to run their own node and audit delivery, it would be the same as saying a person accepting delivery of a billion dollars in gold is banned from conducting their own personal audit. Since bitcoin is a digital commodity, this right to audit delivery is essential to protect their liberties against foul play. Suggesting such a device be banned is a vote for autocratic control by government handlers at the expense of the individual’s rights to protect themselves from thieves. While we are on this important subject, Bitcoin is the only blockchain that has a code base small enough to allow for everyday citizens to afford and operate their own node and provide independent audits on their property – ensuring its legitimacy and overall security. In short, Bitcoin is different – Bitcoin promotes individual freedoms, sovereignty, and liberties at the individual level. An idea consistent with our Declaration of Independence: “Endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights…That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed.”

A Call to Action

So what do totalitarian governments embrace? They embrace control. Such a control is often established through small and incremental changes that mask a deeper trend and direction that citizens don’t notice. This progression ultimately leads to absolute control. Now, what is the paramount lever to pull if a government was interested in absolute control? That’s right, the money. Because money is the energy that fuels every action and desire of the individual citizen. Therefore let me be very clear: You will not beat a totalitarian government by becoming more totalitarian. America was founded on the principle of individual rights and freedoms. Those freedoms in turn created the strongest economy and most powerful nation on the planet. It is those very freedoms that are at risk with knee jerk policy decisions to remove your individual rights in the name of security. In the face of the unstoppable tide that is Bitcoin and decentralized finance, it is paramount that we, as a society, and particularly as citizens of the United States, recognize the critical crossroads we find ourselves. The trajectory of Bitcoin’s innovation and adoption will continue, with or without the active participation or understanding of any single nation. The question that remains is whether we will be leaders or laggards in this inevitable financial evolution. Our cherished ideals of liberty and open markets are at stake. We must urgently commit ourselves to a deep and nuanced understanding of Bitcoin’s potential to secure financial freedom in an increasingly digital future. By actively choosing to educate ourselves, our communities, and engaging in meaningful dialogue with our elected representatives, we are taking essential steps towards protecting our position as a global financial leader. This is not just about maintaining economic dominance; it is about safeguarding the very liberties and freedoms that define us. The false sense of security provided by manipulated markets and snap policy decisions has eroded the foundation of capitalism—a system that, in its true form, no longer exists. We must recognize this distortion, challenge it, and champion the cause of financial freedom through Bitcoin. Supporting organizations dedicated to digital rights and financial freedom becomes not just a choice, but a duty. By contributing our time, resources, and voices, we are making a stand against the forces that seek to centralize control and diminish our economic sovereignty. On an individual level, embracing the tools that ensure our financial freedom—such as setting up Bitcoin wallets, running full nodes, and educating ourselves on the secure use of Bitcoin—is a powerful act of promoting freedom. We are fortifying the network, protecting our assets, and affirming our commitment to a future where financial freedom is accessible to all. The challenge is formidable, but the stakes are too high to remain passive. The United States has a choice: adapt and embrace the decentralized future of money, securing our liberties and financial leadership, or risk being left behind, tethered to outdated systems and eroding freedoms. The power of informed, engaged, and proactive citizens is our greatest asset in this pivotal moment. Together, we can shape a future that upholds the principles of freedom, innovation, and financial sovereignty. “Those who would give up essential liberty, to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety” - Benjamin Franklin

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

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