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Behind Today’s Stellar Jobs Print: It Was Literally ALL Part-Time Jobs (And Illegals)

Behind Today’s Stellar Jobs Print: It Was Literally ALL Part-Time Jobs (And Illegals)

First things first: unlike the last two months when…

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Behind Today's Stellar Jobs Print: It Was Literally ALL Part-Time Jobs (And Illegals)

First things first: unlike the last two months when both the January and February jobs prints were beyond ridiculously manipulated and goalseeked to pass a terrible number as a strong one, the March print was not a complete disaster.

To be sure, superficially the March report was another artificially goalseeked blowout that guaranteed it would have zero credibility: with 303K payrolls added which was a 4 sigma beat to the median estimate of 214K and above the highest Wall Street forecast. There is just one problem: the number of multiple-sigma beats in recent months has been so high, the entire concept of "beats" has become laughable.

Consider this: January was a 5-sigma beat to expectations; February was a 3-sigma beat and March, we just learned, beat the median estimate by 4-sigma. Not only that, but in every of the last 3 months, the actual payrolls number (at least before it was revised lower the next month), has come in higher than the highest Wall Street estimate! We kinda feel bad for Biden trying so hard to manipulate the economy and population into liking Bidenomics and approving of his disastrous economic policies. Maybe he should just report one month that jobs rose by 10,000,000 and sit back and wait for his approval rating to hit 100... or something.

The silver lining, is that unlike previous months when the Household Survey reported sharp drops in the number of actually employed workers, in March, employment finally rose by 498K to 161.466 million, the first monthly increase in the past 4 months.

Still, despite the modest rebound in employment, it still lags payrolls by almost 9 million jobs since the covid trough.

However, that's where the mitigating factors end, because while there was some improvement in the quantitative aspect of the March report, when it comes to the qualitative aspect, it was another disaster for one simple reason: all the job gains were part time jobs!

Here is exhibit A: in March, the number of part-time jobs soared by 691K to 28.632 million, up from 27.941 million while full-time jobs dropped by 6,000, to 132.940 million from 132.946 million.

This number only gets scarier when we extend the period to the past year: as shown in the next chart, since March 2023, the number of full-time workers has collapsed by 1.347 million while the number of part-time workers exploded by 1.888 million!

There's more.

Regular readers are aware that all the job gains since 2018 have gone to immigrants, mostly illegal immigrants, something we spent last month's jobs post discussing in detail.

So what happened in March? It will come as no surprise that there was more of the same, and after the collapse in native-born workers in the last three months when nearly 2.5 million native-born workers lost their jobs, March saw some pick up, and 929K native-born workers were added. Meanwhile, after last month's record increase in foreign-born workers, in March illegal immigrants added another 112K jobs, pushing the total number of foreign-born workers to a new record high of 31.114 million.

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since July 2018!

This, as we have been saying for months now, is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

To this point, we are delighted to observe that after everyone had been ignoring what we have been saying for months, namely that all job growth has gone to illegals...

... overnight none other than Goldman admitted that not only has all job growth in recent years gone to illegal immigrants, but that America is now being invaded. Below we excerpt from the note from Goldman economist Elsie Peng, who amusingly calls illegal aliens "unauthorized immigrants" in her note (available to pro subs in the usual place):

Net US immigration surged in 2023. Recent reports from the Congressional Budget Office and border encounter data from the Office of Homeland Security suggest that net US immigration was running above the estimate implied by the change in the foreign-born population in the household survey over the last couple of years. We estimate that net US immigration surged to roughly 2.5 million in 2023, the highest level in the last two decades (Exhibit 1). In today’s note, we look at where recent immigrants are coming from, what parts of the US they are heading to, and how they compare to the rest of the US labor force.

Unauthorized immigrants from South America, Central America, and Mexico have accounted for most of the recent surge in immigration. Using immigration court case data, we estimate that the number of unauthorized immigrants from these three regions likely tripled in 2023 from its pre-pandemic average (left side of Exhibit 2). We note that these estimates of unauthorized immigration inflow carry some degree of uncertainty because some immigration court cases also reflect visa overstays. In contrast, the overall level and origin composition of authorized immigrants is similar to pre-pandemic trends (right side of Exhibit 2).

Where are they going? According to Goldman, the most popular destination states for new immigrants are Florida, California, Texas, and New York, which together have received over 50% of recent immigrants.

And the punchline, or how the establishment is trying to spin the flood of illegals into a positive feature for the US economy: apparently all these illegals are little gifts from god, keeping wages low and taking jobs that nobody else would ever want.

Data from the 2023 Current Population Survey suggest that recent adult immigrants are more likely to be young or prime age (90%) than the native-born adult population (62%) or adult immigrants who arrived earlier (64%). Recent immigrants have a higher labor force participation rate than the native-born population but a lower rate than immigrants who have been in the US for longer, have a higher unemployment rate than either group, are more likely to work in construction and food services and accommodations, and earn significantly lower wages on average.

This is hardly a surprise: none other than Fed Chair Powell fired the starting gun one month ago when in his 60 Minutes interview he effectively said Americans are lazy and that it was the illegals that have been critical in keep wages lower even as jobs have grown substantially in the past year (at least according to the Establishment survey). Recall this exchange from the interview:

PELLEY: Why was immigration important?

POWELL: Because, you know, immigrants come in, and they tend to work at a rate that is at or above that for non-immigrants. Immigrants who come to the country tend to be in the workforce at a slightly higher level than native Americans do. But that's largely because of the age difference. They tend to skew younger.

PELLEY: Why is immigration so important to the economy?

POWELL: Well, first of all, immigration policy is not the Fed's job. The immigration policy of the United States is really important and really much under discussion right now, and that's none of our business. We don't set immigration policy. We don't comment on it.

I will say, over time, though, the U.S. economy has benefited from immigration. And, frankly, just in the last, year a big part of the story of the labor market coming back into better balance is immigration returning to levels that were more typical of the pre-pandemic era.

PELLEY: The country needed the workers.

POWELL: It did. And so, that's what's been happening.

But that's not all: just in case praising illegal immigration wasn't enough to keeping wage growth low (completely ignoring that all these millions in illegals will require trillions in additional welfare spending, and are the primary beneficiaries of the latest explosion in US debt), there has been a second angle this time courtesy of the CBO which recently hilarious "calculated" that illegal immigrants will boost US GDP by $7 trillion in the next decade.

This is how CBO Director Phill Swagel summarized it: "as a result of those changes in the labor force, we estimate that from 2023 to 2034, GDP will be greater by about $7 trillion and revenue will be greater by about $1 trillion than they would have been otherwise."

And there you have it: yes, the US hasn't added any jobs to native-born Americans in six years, as instead all jobs have gone to immigrants, mostly the illegal variety, but that's good news you see, because if it wasn't for these lovely creatures flooding into the US, wages would be higher (that's a bad thing according to the Fed), and the US economy would not grow by $9 trillion. Just please ignore that that $9 trillion in "growth" will come only thanks to $20 trillion in debt, almost all of it soaked up by these same illegals, and of course, a handful of corrupt, embezzling politicians.

And so the scene has been set: if and when Trump or Republicans finally get their act together and halt the flood of illegals, then and only then, will the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis admit just how ugly the US economy, the labor market and inflation truly are... and then they will blame Trump for pushing the US into a stagflationary recession because he halted the record inflow of immigrants without which the US is - drumroll - doomed.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/05/2024 - 12:05

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How the UK’s new rights around flexible working will affect employees and businesses

A statutory right to request flexible-working arrangements was introduced in 2014 but has been little used. New legislation coming into force could change…

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April 5, 2024

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Making everyone fit. Studio Romantic

Employees in the UK have just received a new right to request flexible working arrangements from the first day of a new job. This is courtesy of the Employment Relations (Flexible Working) Act and supporting secondary legislation, which are in force from April 6, and represent an important change to employment regulations for Britain’s 1.5 million employers.

Flexible working covers numerous arrangements that deviate from “standard” employment practices, such as part-time work, compressed hours, job shares, flexitime and remote working. UK employees all received a right to ask for such arrangements when the Flexible Working Regulations were extended in 2014. However, this came with substantial restrictions, such as applicants having had to be in post for 26 weeks, so that in practice most workplaces arranged flexible working either informally or outside of the statutory request process.

The new rules may well make the statutory system mainstream. Around 2 million employees a year are currently leaving their jobs due to a lack of flexible working arrangements (albeit informal flexible-working arrangements increased during the pandemic).

Organisations should therefore prepare for an increase in statutory requests. Most employers are expecting this, according to research by work communications platform Slack, which also finds that a majority have not made their workforce aware of their new rights.

So what are the key changes, and what do they mean for employers and workers?

1. The right to a request from day 1

It will be vital that recruitment teams are well equipped to discuss flexible working during job interviews, and also that managers have the skills to design jobs that reflect the needs of their staff.

The government’s intention is that by encouraging a more diverse range of job applicants, organisations will have a wider talent pool from which to recruit. Many employees, women in particular, stay in posts where they have secured a flexible working arrangement, knowing it might be difficult to obtain a similar arrangement elsewhere.

In many cases this hampers their career progress, which can have lifelong financial consequences. This helps to explain why a survey by the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development found that 57% of HR professionals favour the new day 1 right to a request.

2. How requests work

Employers must now respond to requests within two months, whereas previously they were allowed three, which can be too long in a crisis situation. Employees under the old system could only submit one request a year, but can now submit two.

The idea is that those with changing circumstances will be supported to work flexibly in different ways over the course of a year. For example, someone supporting their partner through cancer treatment may want to vary their working patterns around anticipated care demands. Employers might find these shifting arrangements challenging, but it will hopefully help them to retain valued staff.

Equally, employees whose first application has been turned down can now make a new request without having to wait too long. For example, they might come back with a new proposal that demonstrates an understanding of their employer’s constraints and proposes a more mutually beneficial arrangement.

Meeting between three people in an office
The new system aims to improve dialogue between both sides. Fizkes

It will be incumbent on employers to make sure their decision-making process is as transparent as possible, since this will help employees to tailor future requests and ensure that there’s a constructive and efficient dialogue.

3. Rejecting requests

In another change to the 2014 rules, employers must not reject a request without first consulting the employee. This is essential to make sure employers understand the circumstances behind requests, particularly given that these are often motivated by rapidly changing, unavoidable things like family health crises. The starting position for employers should always be to consider what may be possible, and to identify viable alternatives if the employee’s request isn’t workable.

4. Applicant requirements

Employees submitting requests are no longer required to explain how their proposed arrangement would affect their employer and how it could be dealt with. This means that line managers will need to have a central role in making decisions about requests, since they will usually have the greatest knowledge about job roles and will have to implement any new arrangement. Employers will accordingly need to train and support their line managers around managing flexible working.

For anyone needing more information, national employment-relations adviser Acas’ code of practice helps to explain what the changes mean for employers and employees.

The case for more flexible working

We recently conducted research for Acas, for publication this summer, looking at how organisations in different sectors have been using flexible working since the pandemic. We found that only a small minority of the huge range of today’s flexible working practices have been organised through the statutory right to request process.

Statutory requests have mostly been restricted to more complicated cases. This might include situations where a line manager is known to be unsympathetic to flexible working, or where a request would run contrary to normal shift patterns, such as in a supermarket or hospital.

Supermarket worker pushing a trolley
Most statutory requests since 2014 have been unusual cases. Michael JP

The large volume of informal flexible working in organisations provides some indication of employee demand for these arrangements. An informal set-up can be fine for everyday demands like needing to take time off to look after a sick family member. But where a flexible arrangement has become more routine, such as working longer or shorter hours on different days, employees might benefit from the enhanced security of having it written into their contracts rather than relying on a verbal agreement.

While some employers will probably regard the legislation as a major shakeup, the government’s impact assessment highlighted business benefits such as improved productivity, more motivated employees and reduced absenteeism. We would also argue that the legislation offers employers a unique opportunity to take stock of how their employees’ needs for flexible working have changed since the pandemic.

Such an approach can enable them to gain a deeper understanding of their employees’ circumstances, and take a more inclusive and fair approach to supporting requests.

Jane Parry has received funding from various government departments and research councils. She is a member of the Labour Party.

Michalis Veliziotis has received funding from UKRI/ESRC and Acas.

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HKUMed’s innovative platforms rapidly track SARS-CoV-2 mutational impact on disease severity and identify effective therapeutic inhibitors

A multidisciplinary research team from the LKS Faculty of Medicine (HKUMed) and the Faculty of Engineering of the University of Hong Kong (HKU) has successfully…

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A multidisciplinary research team from the LKS Faculty of Medicine (HKUMed) and the Faculty of Engineering of the University of Hong Kong (HKU) has successfully developed an innovative screening platform to rapidly assess the impact of SARS-CoV-2 mutations on disease severity. Compared to traditional methods, this platform has achieved a speed improvement of up to 39 times. Additionally, the researchers focused on understanding how mutations affect syncytium formation, a process known as cell fusion in which infected cells fuse with uninfected cells. This research helps identify emerging viral variants that could pose a significant risk to public health. The team has also identified two FDA-approved drugs that can ease disease severity. The findings were published in Nature Biomedical Engineering [link to publication], and a patent application has been filed based on the research.

Credit: The University of Hong Kong

A multidisciplinary research team from the LKS Faculty of Medicine (HKUMed) and the Faculty of Engineering of the University of Hong Kong (HKU) has successfully developed an innovative screening platform to rapidly assess the impact of SARS-CoV-2 mutations on disease severity. Compared to traditional methods, this platform has achieved a speed improvement of up to 39 times. Additionally, the researchers focused on understanding how mutations affect syncytium formation, a process known as cell fusion in which infected cells fuse with uninfected cells. This research helps identify emerging viral variants that could pose a significant risk to public health. The team has also identified two FDA-approved drugs that can ease disease severity. The findings were published in Nature Biomedical Engineering [link to publication], and a patent application has been filed based on the research.

Background
The SARS-CoV-2 virus, which caused the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic, has been continuously evolving since its emergence. Spike protein mutations can lead to different degrees of infectivity and lethality. The spike protein plays a crucial role in viral infection by binding to human ACE2 receptors and merging with neighbouring uninfected cells to form syncytia, which contribute to virus spread and disease severity. Scientists have discovered that severe COVID-19 cases often exhibit syncytium cells in the lungs, providing evidence of the connection between spike-driven cell fusion and infection severity.

Large-scale screening to assess cell-cell fusion is challenging, as it requires a rapid way to measure the fusion process. Previous studies individually constructed and monitored spike variants to assess their potential to form syncytia, which was both technically demanding and costly. To address this, the research team used innovative screening methods and advanced genetic techniques to identify the specific genetic and cellular factors responsible for promoting syncytia formation. This research is crucial for developing effective interventions and treatments to block the fusion and potentially restrict virus spread.

Research findings
The team used a special system involving split green fluorescent protein (GFP), which produces detectable signals when cells fuse together. They combined it with a microfluidics-based system and large-scale mutagenesis to create a new platform for rapid screening and analysis of a wide range of spike protein variants and their fusion capabilities.

By studying the spike protein and its mutations, researchers have found that certain variants, such as the Delta strain, form larger syncytia than the original strain of the virus. They discovered that a single K854H mutation can transform the Omicron variant into a strain that forms fusions from a low rate to a high rate. Furthermore, some mutations found in the study were predicted to be as mutable as those seen in the previous variants, such as Omicron and Delta, revealing that these new mutations should be kept under surveillance as they could emerge in future viral evolution.

To enhance the efficiency of the screening process, the team developed a new strategy using size-exclusion selection to sort fused and unfused cells on a large scale, which enabled speedy screening. This method achieved over 80% in accuracy rate, comparing with the traditional approach.

Employing the size-exclusion selection strategy, the team conducted a genome-wide CRISPR screen and identified two cellular factors, AP2M1 and FCHO2, involved in cellular uptake mechanism, which contributes to syncytium formation. The researchers then tested two FDA-approved drugs, chlorpromazine and fluvoxamine, currently used for antipsychotic purposes, to inhibit cellular uptake. Experiments on hamster models showed that these drugs could inhibit syncytium formation induced by the spike protein and potentially alleviate disease severity.

Significance of the study
The significance of this study lies in its interdisciplinary approach, combining high-throughput CRISPR screening, large-scale mutagenesis, droplet microfluidics, and virology. The droplet microfluidics system enabled the study of cell-cell interactions in a high-throughput manner and provided high-resolution data. The paired-cell system has the potential to systematically profile the fusogenicity of various viruses, including HIV, RSV, Herpesviridae, SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviridae that induce syncytium formation. The combination of high-throughput profiling systems and CRISPR screening led to the discovery of a potential therapeutic target to combat syncytium formation and reduce the severity of SARS-CoV-2 infections.

Professor Alan Wong Siu-lun, Associate Professor in the School of Biomedical Sciences, HKUMed, who led the research, stated, ‘These innovative systems enable us to rapidly track SARS-CoV-2 mutations on a larger scale and identify treatment options; they can also be broadly applied in the study of various pathological and physiological cell fusion conditions relevant to biomedical research, including cancer immunotherapy.’

Looking forward, he added, ‘The methods and knowledge gained from this study have the potential to contribute to public health efforts and provide insights into the development of therapeutic interventions for COVID-19 and other diseases involving cell fusion.’

About the research team
The HKU collaborative research team was led by Professor Alan Wong Siu-lun and Dr Gigi Choi Ching-gee from the School of Biomedical Sciences, and Professor Chu Hin from the Department of Microbiology, School of Clinical Medicine, HKUMed; together with Professor Anderson Shum Ho-cheung, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering. The collaborative research team also includes Charles Chan Wai-fong, Wang Bei and Dr Chu Hoi-yee from the School of Biomedical Sciences, and Dr Huang Xiner and Luo Cuiting from the Department of Microbiology, School of Clinical Medicine, HKUMed; and Dr Lang Nan and Mao Tianjiao from the Department of Mechanical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering.

Acknowledgements
This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Excellent Young Scientists Fund); the Centre for Oncology and Immunology, and the Advanced Biomedical Instrumentation Centre, under the Health@InnoHK Initiative funded by the Innovation and Technology Commission, the Government of Hong Kong SAR; and the Collaborative Research Fund under the Hong Kong Research Grants Council.

Media enquiries
Please contact LKS Faculty of Medicine of The University of Hong Kong by email (medmedia@hku.hk).

Journal

Nature Biomedical Engineering

DOI

10.1038/s41551-023-01140-z

Method of Research

Experimental study

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

High-throughput screening of genetic and cellular drivers of syncytium formation induced by the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2

Article Publication Date

23-Nov-2023

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March Jobs Come In Red-Hot At 303K, Above Highest Estimate, As Unemployment Rate Drops

March Jobs Come In Red-Hot At 303K, Above Highest Estimate, As Unemployment Rate Drops

As we wrote in our preview, while big data hinted at…

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April 5, 2024

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March Jobs Come In Red-Hot At 303K, Above Highest Estimate, As Unemployment Rate Drops

As we wrote in our preview, while big data hinted at a weaker than expected March jobs print, the relentless influx of immigrants would lead to a hotter than expected payrolls number.

Sure enough, the illegals won again when moments ago the BLS reported that in March, the US added a whopping 303K jobs, tied for the highest since Jan 2023!

The number was not only hotter than last month's (downward, of course) revised number of 270K (was 275K) but was above the highest Wall Street estimate of 290K (from Jobdig, Inc) and as shown below this was the latest multiple-sigma beat to expectations, this month coming in at 4x.

The March number, which will be revised substantially lower next month, follows two downward revisions, follows a 5,000 downward revision to the February number from +275,000 to +270,000, and a 27,000 upward revision to January from +229,000 to +256,000.

What is perhaps more notable is that after several months of declines in the Household survey, in March the number of people actually employed finally rebounded rising by 498K, to 161.466 million from 160.968 million. Still, as shown below, the data series has a lot of catching up to do.

Turning our attention to the unemployment rate, it unexpectedly dipped again, dropping to 3.8%, from 3.9%, in line with estimates, as the number of unemployed workers dipped modestly from 6.458 million to 6.429 million while the number of employed workers rose by almost half a million workers; the unemployment rate for Blacks (6.4 percent) increased in March to the highest level in almost two years, while the rates for Asians (2.5 percent) and Hispanics (4.5 percent) decreased. The jobless rates for adult men (3.3 percent), adult women (3.6 percent), teenagers (12.6 percent), and Whites (3.4 percent) showed little or no change over the month.

In contrast, the participation rate rose from 62.5% to 62.7%, above the 62.6% expected, as the overall civilian labor force increased slightly less than the number of employed people.

The silver lining to today's jobs report is that despite the hot print, the average hourly earnings came in as expected, rising 0.3% MoM, up from last month's upward revised 0.2% sequential increase (revised from 0.1%), On an annual basis, the hourly earnings rose 4.1%, as expected, and down from 4.3%. This was the lowest print in almost three years: the last time wages rose by this much was the summer of 2021.

Taking a closer look at wages, In March, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 12 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $34.69. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.1 percent. In March, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees edged up by 7 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $29.79.

One reason why average hourly earnings did not increase is that in March, the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours. In manufacturing, the average workweek was unchanged at 40.0 hours, and overtime edged down by 0.1 hour to 2.9 hours in March. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls also edged up by 0.1 hour to 33.9 hours.

* * *

According to the BLS, the number of people not in the labor force who want a job came in little changed at 5.4 million.

“These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.”

Also according to the report, the number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 million. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.

Finally, the BLS reports that among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force, at 1.6 million, was little changed in March. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, was little changed at 337,000 in March.

* * *

Taking a closer look at the composition of jobs by industry we find the following:

  • Health care added 72,000 jobs in March, above the average monthly gain of 60,000 over the prior 12 months. In March, job growth continued in ambulatory health care services (+28,000), hospitals (+27,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+18,000).
  • In March, employment in government increased by 71,000, higher than the average monthly gain of 54,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment increased in local government (+49,000) and federal government (+9,000).
  • Construction added 39,000 jobs in March, about double the average monthly gain of 19,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment increased in nonresidential specialty trade contractors (+16,000).
  • Employment in leisure and hospitality trended up in March (+49,000) and has returned to its  pre-pandemic February 2020 level. Over the prior 12 months, job growth in the industry had averaged 37,000 per month.
  • Employment in the other services industry continued its upward trend in March (+16,000). The industry had added an average of 8,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months. Employment  in other services remains below its February 2020 level by 40,000, or 0.7 percent.
  • Employment in social assistance continued to trend up in March (+9,000), below the average monthly gain of 22,000 over the prior 12 months.
  • In March, employment was little changed in retail trade (+18,000). A job gain in general merchandise retailers (+20,000) was partially offset by job losses in building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (-10,000) and in automotive parts, accessories, and tire retailers (-3,000).
  • Employment showed little or no change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; transportation and warehousing; information; financial activities; and professional and business services.

A visual breakdown shows that the bulk of jobs was in Education/Health and Government jobs, which accounted for more than half of all March jobs.

And a closer look at the best performing job category under Biden: government. In March, this added 71K, the second most since the start of 2023.

In sum: health care added 72,000 jobs; government roles increased by 71,000; other notable gains were construction, adding 39,000, and leisure and hospitality, adding 49,000.

Finally, for those wondering if the jobs were all part-time, the answer is a resounding yes: in March, full-time jobs dropped by 6,000 as Part-time jobs soared by 691,000.

What was Wall Street's reaction? Here are some hot takes, starting with Bloomberg's Enda Curran who writes that since it’s an election year, these numbers will be trumpeted by the White House as evidence of their stewardship. The downside however is that they lean against calls for a rate cut, "something of a double-edged political sword."

Echoing this, Torsten Slok, Apollo's resident in house permabear who will never relax until you have sold all your assets to, well, Apollo writes that the number confirms the Fed will not cut rates this year:

“The source of this strength is easy financial conditions. The stock market is up +$10trn over the past five months, which is a significant wealth gain for household balance sheets. Credit spreads are tighter for IG, HY, and loans. Big rebound in IG issuance and HY issuance in January, February, and March. IPO activity is coming back and M&A activity is coming back. These factors will all support consumer spending, capex spending, and hiring over the coming quarters... We are sticking to our view that the Fed will not cut interest rates this year.”

Here is Seema Shah, chief global strategist, Principal Asset Management:

“At first sight, the jobs report leans against three cuts. Yet the average hourly earnings figures are in line with expectations and, as Powell has made quite clear in recent speeches, a strong labor market is not a concern if price pressures are moderating... Next week’s CPI report is the one that is pivotal for rate expectations. But today’s report should reassure markets that, if the Fed does not cut in June, it’s because the economy is still strong and earnings should remain in an upswing.”

Priya Misra, portfolio manager at JP Morgan Investment Management, says:  

“If service inflation shows signs of picking up in the CPI and PCE reports later this month, Fed ‘patience’ might run thin. The market reaction makes sense to me – higher rates and weaker risk sentiment. I think risk assets are paying attention to rates now. Risk assets ignored the rates move until this week since Jan and Feb could be glossed over as noise. But if the economy is staying too hot, the market should question Fed cuts and the specter of Fed hikes comes back to the market.”

Ed Al-Hussainy, rates strategist at Columbia Threadneedle Investment, says:

“The key question is whether the combination of higher demand growth, momentum in employment, and the easing of financial conditions since last October start to show up in inflation. We’ll get another look at that in CPI/PPI data next week.”

Ali Jaffery, an economist at CIBC Capital Markets, sees immigration playing a role in today’s numbers:

“This has raised the sustainable level of job gains from 100K before the pandemic to about 180K. Today’s data is likely more evidence of that trend and supports the Fed’s view that the increase in labor supply is driving growth in the job market and the economy more broadly. Overall, the March employment report leans against an earlier cut by the Fed.”

Bryce Doty of Sit Investment Associates:

“Incredibly strong jobs data puts the bond market in panic mode over Fed cuts being delayed."

But...

“I keep scratching my head wondering why so many people are deciding to get jobs now when millions of job openings have been available for at least a couple of years. It’s not as though the economy suddenly produced these jobs. So people joining the workforce now must need the jobs. As a result, I’m cautious about how strong the jobs data really is for the economy. We expect a quarter point cut in the third quarter and a half point cut in the fourth quarter.”

We close again with Bloomberg's Enda Curran who writes that "at face value, these job numbers hardly lend themselves to a near-term rate cut."

Bottom line: strong report, until you look under the surface. For now, however, it will serve the White House to pitch Bidenomics as some miraculous economic panacea, while the market will try to soothe itself that the number was good, but not hot enough to prevent Powell from cutting rates in June.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/05/2024 - 08:47

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