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Asia Morning: Covid Cold Continues

Asia Morning: Covid Cold Continues

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Unfortunately, Covid-19 looks set to continue dominating the thoughts of the world as we start the week. US markets faded on Friday as buy the rumour, sell the fact swept financial markets into the weeks close. The long-awaited $2 Trillion stimulus package was finally signed into being.

 

Nothing has really changed over the weekend. Despite the aggressive lockdowns across Europe, Australasia, the United States and seemingly, every destination in between, the rate of new Covid-19 infections and deaths stubbornly refuses to show any signs of slowing down. “Locked-down for longer” seems to be the mantra that the world is begrudgingly having to accept as the price of bringing the Wuhan virus under control.

 

That is unlikely to be good news for asset markets, with most monetary and fiscal good news well and truly out there, last week’s rally in stocks, for example, looks almost certain to run out of steam. The sad reality is that until the world starts making evidential progress in the fight against Covid-19, and by that, I mean the United States and Europe, pricing in a v-shaped recovery in asset markets remains delusional hype at best, or reckless stupidity at worst.

 

The Monetary Authority of Singapore become probably the last central bank of the easing rank today, removing all appreciation bias for the Singapore Dollar at its six-monthly policy meeting. That should be of surprise to absolutely no one at all and is more flag-waving exercise than substance. The unique nature of the way the MAS manages monetary policy leaves the burden of stimulus squarely on the shoulders of the government.

 

With Initial Jobless Claims in the US exploding higher last week, these weeks highlight from the data from with by the US Non-Farm Payrolls data this Friday. Here we should gain further insight into the ravages of Covid-19 on the US economy with last months outsized 273,000 gains surely consigned to the dustbin of history. Early estimates suggest that Payrolls will shrink by 100,000 jobs, but it would not surprise me in the least if that number shrinks even further than the initial assessment.

 

We will receive a slew of PMI data from around the world in the 2nd half of the week. It will, of course, be stating the obvious, that the world is well and truly in the grasp of a recession. In the bigger picture, the data itself only confirms what we already know. What is required, is evidence that the fight against Covid-19 is being won, and I suspect that day is some way off yet.

 

Equities

 

Wall Street fell on Friday after an impressive rally through the earlier part of the week. With the US stimulus package finally signed into law, the fall on Friday had profit-taking look about it. Pundits will move into “what’s next” mode, and that will limit any equity gains as the week starts. All of these packages and easings from around the world are there to keep the lights on in the global economy; they are not magic panaceas for the world’s ills. The S&P 500 fell 3.37%, the Nasdaq fell 3.79%, and the Dow Jones fell 4.06%.

 

In Asia today, equity markets have slid in sympathy, with both S&P and Nasdaq futures easing by 1.0% this morning. The Nikkei 225 has fallen 3.25% with the Singapore Straits Times lower by 4.0%. The Kospi is 2.0% lower, and the Hang Seng is 1.40% lower. Mainland stocks have eased slightly, the Shanghai Composite falling 1.20% and the CS! 300 lowers by 1.60%. Australia continues to forge its own path, the ASX 200 and All Ord’s both higher by 2.0%, confounding the street and the author.

 

Overall, most of the good news on the fiscal and monetary front is now out there. Short of some remarkable and sudden progress on the Covid-19 from, equities are now likely to run out of momentum and ready themselves for further losses over the week.

 

Currencies

 

The story is much the same with the currency markets with most of the negative news vis-a-vis the US Dollar now out there. That means that that Dollar strength should reassert itself as the week commences. The majors are mostly lower versus the greenback, with the EUR/USD down 0.45% to 1.1080, the GBP/USD is 0.50% lower at 1.2385 and USD/CNY edging back above 7.1000, climbing 0.30% to 7.1085.

 

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars are both 0.35% lower and chatter that South Africa is about to call in the IMF, sees the USD/ZAR climbing 1.50% to 17.9000 today.

 

Asian regional currencies are gently lower versus the Dollar today, with volumes very light as Asia settles into a wait and see mode. The exception is the USD/IDR, which has fallen by 1.10% today to 16,100.00. One suspects that the Bank of Indonesia is using the relatively quiet start to the week to indulge in some judicious “smoothing” action with much talk here over the weekend, that Jakarta would be “locked down” this week. I have my doubts.

 

Overall, US Dollar strength looks set to continue despite the underwhelming Covid-19 response by the Federal Government. Things are going to get much worse in America before they get better, but that news appears to be largely priced into markets for now.

 

Oil

 

Oil has fallen in Asia this morning as hopes that some sort of Saudi Arabia and Russian rapprochement over the weekend were dashed. Brent crude has declined 6.50% to $23.25 a barrel today, with WTI also down $6.80% to $20.40 a barrel.

 

With the world awash with price war oil that nobody wants, the Brent contango at record highs, and the world mired in a virus recession, only the wildest optimist could construct a reason to be long oil, even at these levels. More than likely, any rallies this week will last a day at the most and be met with a wall of sellers. That said, Brent crude around the $20.00 a barrel region, appears to have a hint of reaching equilibrium for now.

 

Gold

 

Gold enjoyed an impressive rally in the middle part of last week, as the mass liquidation of haven assets appeared to have run its course at long last. That had started to look like it had run its course on Friday with gold easing 0.50% lower to finish around $1620.00 an ounce.

 

In the absence of any other compelling news to emerge from the weekend, the direct correlation with equities appears to be quietly reasserting itself this morning in Asia. Gold has fallen 0.30% to $1618.50 an ounce in morning trade.

 

If anything, gold looks vulnerable to a deeper pullback below $1600.00 an ounce if equities do as expected, and underperform as the week gets underway. Although fundamentally, gold should be a screaming buy still, even after the 180 Dollar rally last week. Nervous trigger fingers and a clear preference by global investors for cash, meaning that gold is unlikely to challenge $1650.00 an ounce this week.

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Mike Pompeo Doesn’t Rule Out Serving In 2nd Trump Administration

Mike Pompeo Doesn’t Rule Out Serving In 2nd Trump Administration

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Former Secretary…

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Mike Pompeo Doesn't Rule Out Serving In 2nd Trump Administration

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a new interview that he’s not ruling out accepting a White House position if former President Donald Trump is reelected in November.

“If I get a chance to serve and think that I can make a difference ... I’m almost certainly going to say yes to that opportunity to try and deliver on behalf of the American people,” he told Fox News, when asked during a interview if he would work for President Trump again.

I’m confident President Trump will be looking for people who will faithfully execute what it is he asked them to do,” Mr. Pompeo said during the interview, which aired on March 8. “I think as a president, you should always want that from everyone.”

Then-President Donald Trump (C), then- Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (L), and then-Vice President Mike Pence, take a question during the daily briefing on the novel coronavirus at the White House in Washington on April 8, 2020. (Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)

He said that as a former secretary of state, “I certainly wanted my team to do what I was asking them to do and was enormously frustrated when I found that I couldn’t get them to do that.”

Mr. Pompeo, a former U.S. representative from Kansas, served as Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) director in the Trump administration from 2017 to 2018 before he was secretary of state from 2018 to 2021. After he left office, there was speculation that he could mount a Republican presidential bid in 2024, but announced that he wouldn’t be running.

President Trump hasn’t publicly commented about Mr. Pompeo’s remarks.

In 2023, amid speculation that he would make a run for the White House, Mr. Pompeo took a swipe at his former boss, telling Fox News at the time that “the Trump administration spent $6 trillion more than it took in, adding to the deficit.”

“That’s never the right direction for the country,” he said.

In a public appearance last year, Mr. Pompeo also appeared to take a shot at the 45th president by criticizing “celebrity leaders” when urging GOP voters to choose ahead of the 2024 election.

2024 Race

Mr. Pompeo’s interview comes as the former president was named the “presumptive nominee” by the Republican National Committee (RNC) last week after his last major Republican challenger, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, dropped out of the 2024 race after failing to secure enough delegates. President Trump won 14 out of 15 states on Super Tuesday, with only Vermont—which notably has an open primary—going for Ms. Haley, who served as President Trump’s U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.

On March 8, the RNC held a meeting in Houston during which committee members voted in favor of President Trump’s nomination.

“Congratulations to President Donald J. Trump on his huge primary victory!” the organization said in a statement last week. “I’d also like to congratulate Nikki Haley for running a hard-fought campaign and becoming the first woman to win a Republican presidential contest.”

Earlier this year, the former president criticized the idea of being named the presumptive nominee after reports suggested that the RNC would do so before the Super Tuesday contests and while Ms. Haley was still in the race.

Also on March 8, the RNC voted to name Trump-endorsed officials to head the organization. Michael Whatley, a North Carolina Republican, was elected the party’s new national chairman in a vote in Houston, and Lara Trump, the former president’s daughter-in-law, was voted in as co-chair.

“The RNC is going to be the vanguard of a movement that will work tirelessly every single day to elect our nominee, Donald J. Trump, as the 47th President of the United States,” Mr. Whatley told RNC members in a speech after being elected, replacing former chair Ronna McDaniel. Ms. Trump is expected to focus largely on fundraising and media appearances.

President Trump hasn’t signaled whom he would appoint to various federal agencies if he’s reelected in November. He also hasn’t said who his pick for a running mate would be, but has offered several suggestions in recent interviews.

In various interviews, the former president has mentioned Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), Vivek Ramaswamy, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, among others.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/13/2024 - 17:00

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International

Riley Gaines Explains How Women’s Sports Are Rigged To Promote The Trans Agenda

Riley Gaines Explains How Women’s Sports Are Rigged To Promote The Trans Agenda

Is there a light forming when it comes to the long, dark and…

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Riley Gaines Explains How Women's Sports Are Rigged To Promote The Trans Agenda

Is there a light forming when it comes to the long, dark and bewildering tunnel of social justice cultism?  Global events have been so frenetic that many people might not remember, but only a couple years ago Big Tech companies and numerous governments were openly aligned in favor of mass censorship.  Not just to prevent the public from investigating the facts surrounding the pandemic farce, but to silence anyone questioning the validity of woke concepts like trans ideology. 

From 2020-2022 was the closest the west has come in a long time to a complete erasure of freedom of speech.  Even today there are still countries and Europe and places like Canada or Australia that are charging forward with draconian speech laws.  The phrase "radical speech" is starting to circulate within pro-censorship circles in reference to any platform where people are allowed to talk critically.  What is radical speech?  Basically, it's any discussion that runs contrary to the beliefs of the political left.

Open hatred of moderate or conservative ideals is perfectly acceptable, but don't ever shine a negative light on woke activism, or you might be a terrorist.

Riley Gaines has experienced this double standard first hand.  She was even assaulted and taken hostage at an event in 2023 at San Francisco State University when leftists protester tried to trap her in a room and demanded she "pay them to let her go."  Campus police allegedly witnessed the incident but charges were never filed and surveillance footage from the college was never released.  

It's probably the last thing a champion female swimmer ever expects, but her head-on collision with the trans movement and the institutional conspiracy to push it on the public forced her to become a counter-culture voice of reason rather than just an athlete.

For years the independent media argued that no matter how much we expose the insanity of men posing as women to compete and dominate women's sports, nothing will really change until the real female athletes speak up and fight back.  Riley Gaines and those like her represent that necessary rebellion and a desperately needed return to common sense and reason.

In a recent interview on the Joe Rogan Podcast, Gaines related some interesting information on the inner workings of the NCAA and the subversive schemes surrounding trans athletes.  Not only were women participants essentially strong-armed by colleges and officials into quietly going along with the program, there was also a concerted propaganda effort.  Competition ceremonies were rigged as vehicles for promoting trans athletes over everyone else. 

The bottom line?  The competitions didn't matter.  The real women and their achievements didn't matter.  The only thing that mattered to officials were the photo ops; dudes pretending to be chicks posing with awards for the gushing corporate media.  The agenda took precedence.

Lia Thomas, formerly known as William Thomas, was more than an activist invading female sports, he was also apparently a science project fostered and protected by the athletic establishment.  It's important to understand that the political left does not care about female athletes.  They do not care about women's sports.  They don't care about the integrity of the environments they co-opt.  Their only goal is to identify viable platforms with social impact and take control of them.  Women's sports are seen as a vehicle for public indoctrination, nothing more.

The reasons why they covet women's sports are varied, but a primary motive is the desire to assert the fallacy that men and women are "the same" psychologically as well as physically.  They want the deconstruction of biological sex and identity as nothing more than "social constructs" subject to personal preference.  If they can destroy what it means to be a man or a woman, they can destroy the very foundations of relationships, families and even procreation.  

For now it seems as though the trans agenda is hitting a wall with much of the public aware of it and less afraid to criticize it.  Social media companies might be able to silence some people, but they can't silence everyone.  However, there is still a significant threat as the movement continues to target children through the public education system and women's sports are not out of the woods yet.   

The ultimate solution is for women athletes around the world to organize and widely refuse to participate in any competitions in which biological men are allowed.  The only way to save women's sports is for women to be willing to end them, at least until institutions that put doctrine ahead of logic are made irrelevant.          

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/13/2024 - 17:20

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Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024
A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

I always like to star…

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Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024

A brief excerpt:
This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

I always like to start with inventory, since inventory usually tells the tale!
...
Here is a graph of new listing from Realtor.com’s February 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report showing new listings were up 11.3% year-over-year in February. This is still well below pre-pandemic levels. From Realtor.com:

However, providing a boost to overall inventory, sellers turned out in higher numbers this February as newly listed homes were 11.3% above last year’s levels. This marked the fourth month of increasing listing activity after a 17-month streak of decline.
Note the seasonality for new listings. December and January are seasonally the weakest months of the year for new listings, followed by February and November. New listings will be up year-over-year in 2024, but we will have to wait for the March and April data to see how close new listings are to normal levels.

There are always people that need to sell due to the so-called 3 D’s: Death, Divorce, and Disease. Also, in certain times, some homeowners will need to sell due to unemployment or excessive debt (neither is much of an issue right now).

And there are homeowners who want to sell for a number of reasons: upsizing (more babies), downsizing, moving for a new job, or moving to a nicer home or location (move-up buyers). It is some of the “want to sell” group that has been locked in with the golden handcuffs over the last couple of years, since it is financially difficult to move when your current mortgage rate is around 3%, and your new mortgage rate will be in the 6 1/2% to 7% range.

But time is a factor for this “want to sell” group, and eventually some of them will take the plunge. That is probably why we are seeing more new listings now.
There is much more in the article.

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