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3 things we might see from crypto as 2023 winds to an end

Don’t be surprised if we see more investment, more regulation and more artificial intelligence defining crypto during the last two months of 2023.
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4 months ago

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Don’t be surprised if we see more investment, more regulation and more artificial intelligence defining crypto during the last two months of 2023.

As the holiday season approaches, anticipation in the cryptocurrency world heightens for the annual phenomenon known as the "Santa rally." Amidst this festive period, market dynamics tend to shift. This season, there are several factors that could influence the last few months of the year.

Institutional investment surge

Cryptocurrency prices spiked notably at the end of 2020 and 2021, driven by increased investor optimism and institutional interest. Major financial institutions and hedge funds began viewing Bitcoin (BTC) not just as a speculative asset but as a hedge against inflation and a potential store of value. Large companies like Square and MicroStrategy added major Bitcoin holdings to their balance sheets, further solidifying this image shift.

Additionally, Bitcoin reached all-time highs, igniting a positive sentiment throughout the market. Further, institutional investment was demonstrated when businesses like Tesla made large-scale Bitcoin acquisitions publicly known. Moreover, the introduction of a number of cryptocurrency ETFs and funds gave institutional investors a more convenient and familiar way to access the market.

Firms are catering to institutional investors looking for safe storage options for their cryptocurrency holdings in the quickly evolving financial landscape of 2022 by offering custody services, which are essential for safeguarding digital assets.

Related: Bitcoin is evolving into a multiasset network

Despite some fluctuations, the trajectory was generally upward in 2022. Once skeptical, traditional financial institutions started to provide a variety of crypto services, such as lending, trading, and custody. Institutional actors have also recognized the emergence of decentralized finance (DeFi) and nonfungible tokens (NFTs), particularly venture capital firms and specialized funds searching for novel investment opportunities.

For example, prominent financial institutions collaborated to establish EDX Markets (EDXM), a novel exchange designed for the trading of digital assets through reliable intermediaries. This platform will cater to both institutional and retail investors, ensuring a secure environment for digital asset trading. Noteworthy backers of this initiative included renowned entities such as Charles Schwab, Fidelity Digital Assets, Paradigm, Sequoia Capital, Citadel Securities, and Virtu Financial, reinforcing the exchange's credibility and strength within the market.

In 2022, despite the crypto winter, development in the crypto sector increased by 5%, indicating sustained interest in underlying technology. Additionally, a 2022 Celent survey revealed 91% of institutional investors are keen on investing in tokenized assets, highlighting strong demand.

The upcoming season might witness an even larger influx of institutional capital into the crypto domain, exemplified by entities like MicroStrategy, which is expanding its crypto holdings by acquiring additional 1,045 Bitcoin for its growing treasury. Also, research by EY-Parthenon reveals that a majority of institutional investors hold a strong belief in the enduring value of blockchain technology and crypto assets, leading them to plan substantial scaling of digital asset investments over the next two to three years.

Moreover, there is a growing interest among investors to participate in tokenized financial assets, prompting institutions to actively explore opportunities to tokenize their own assets in response to the evolving financial landscape. As the industry continues to mature and gain legitimacy, new financial products tailored specifically for institutional investors could emerge, further facilitating their entry into the market.

Regulatory clarity

In 2020, as the cryptocurrency market boomed, it inevitably caught the attention of regulators worldwide. Some nations responded by enacting complete prohibitions, but others adopted a more measured strategy and started the process of developing regulatory frameworks to monitor and control the rapidly expanding domain of digital assets.

In 2021, U.S. regulatory developments — particularly those pertaining to the SEC's position on cryptocurrencies — became central to the global narrative surrounding cryptocurrencies. The industry was alert due to the ongoing discussions about cryptocurrency regulations and the push for approvals of Bitcoin ETFs. Concurrently, there have been substantial market realignments and conversations regarding decentralization as a result of China's crackdown on cryptocurrency mining and trading.

The cryptocurrency regulatory environment began to evolve in 2022. After preliminary discussions, a number of nations established precise legislative frameworks with rules governing cryptocurrencies, initial coin offerings (ICOs), and DeFi platforms. At the same time, there was a surge in the global movement to create central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), with many countries introducing or testing their own digital currencies.

This year, significant developments reshaped the global cryptocurrency landscape. For instance, Thailand’s Securities and Exchange Commission is poised to ease restrictions on retail investments related to ICOs, aiming to stimulate digital investments and foster market growth.

Meanwhile,the European Union took decisive action by enacting the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulatory framework in April 2023, ushering in a new era of comprehensive crypto regulations within the region.

Related: IRS proposes unprecedented data-collection on crypto users

A pivotal moment occurred in July 2023 when a ruling by U.S. Circuit Judge Analisa Torres affirmed Ripple's compliance with the law regarding XRP sales on public exchanges, marking a significant legal victory for the cryptocurrency sector against U.S. regulators. However, she also clarified that Ripple had violated securities laws by offering XRP to hedge funds and institutional buyers.

In September, four members of the United States Congress rallied for immediate approval of spot Bitcoin listing by Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler. As these events have unfolded, we’ve also seen growing anticipation of a spot Bitcoin ETFs. This potential milestone holds the prospect of introducing clearer regulatory frameworks, providing the cryptocurrency industry and investors with a more structured and defined trajectory ahead.

The confluence of AI and Web3

The convergence of Web3 and AI technology started to dramatically alter the cryptocurrency environment in the waning months of 2020. Predictive analytics and AI-driven trading algorithms gained popularity, enabling institutional and individual investors to make data-driven choices in the erratic cryptocurrency market. With the use of this technology, market analysis was improved, allowing investors to predict price fluctuations and make the most of their trading tactics throughout the upswing.

The relationship between Web3 and artificial intelligence (AI) grew stronger in 2021. AI-powered DApps became more prevalent, providing innovative solutions in fields like NFTs and DeFi. The market gained momentum as a result of this integration, which made yield farming, and NFT creation and trading more effective. AI-driven sentiment analysis tools also played a crucial role, providing insights into market sentiment and trends, aiding investors in making informed decisions.

In 2022, we witnessed the maturation of AI and Web3 integration with projects like Aave using AI algorithms to streamline lending processes, Rarible’s use of AI to provide individualized NFT curation. These initiatives showcased secure, automated, and trustless transactions, boosting investor confidence.

The confluence of AI and Web3 is poised to redefine this Christmas season once again. AI algorithms will develop further, allowing for proactive trading decisions and real-time monitoring of market data. Web3 technologies are anticipated to support creative investment models and decision-making procedures, particularly in the areas of decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) and AI-driven governance systems.

The incorporation of AI-generated content in crypto in the form of NFTs and AI-powered virtual reality experiences could be a driving force in the market in the months ahead. That enthusiasm could contribute to newfound liquidity in the markets, and development for the industry.

Guneet Kaur joined Cointelegraph as an editor in 2021. She holds a Master of Science in financial technology from the University of Stirling and an MBA from India’s Guru Nanak Dev University.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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9 hours ago

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March 9, 2024

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

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1 day ago

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March 8, 2024

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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…

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March 8, 2024

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

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