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2nd Best BTC Week Ever – 5 Things to Watch This Week

$50,000 support remains elusive but data suggests that the Bitcoin bull run is still sustainable

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This article was originally published by the Coin Telegraph.

$50,000 support remains elusive but data suggests that the Bitcoin bull run is still "sustainable" with few sellers lined up. Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week on a firmly bullish note as stocks tumble and BTC managed to close the week above $50,000. After a mixed performance last week that saw multiple tests of $46,000, buyer support is entering and BTC/USD is within 15% of all-time highs. Cointelegraph takes a look at what might lie in store for traders in the coming days with five factors likely to affect Bitcoin price action.

Stocks nosedive as USD gains

The tide is turning on the equities miracle of the past year, with indices falling left and right amid warnings that the rout is far from over. On the back of significant losses in tech stocks, including crypto industry favorites Tesla and MicroStrategy, Asian stocks shed over 1% on the open on Monday. Despite a strong close last week, expectations were for a knock-on effect for the U.S. prior to Wall Street returning. According to analysts at Morgan Stanley, the Nasdaq 100 could even touch its 200-day moving average, lying around 800 points below its current level of 12,642. “You will see a lot of volatility in markets,” Kim Stafford, Asia Pacific head at Pacific Investment Management, told Bloomberg.
“We believe that confidence is improving, especially with vaccines coming online, so we will see an uptick in growth globally. There are a lot of reasons to be confident in the market but a lot of this is also priced in.”
With grim short-term perspectives for equities traders, the U.S. dollar is boosting its existing strong performance. Extending a run from late February, the U.S. dollar currency index (DXY) touched 92.19 over the weekend and held above the 92 mark on Monday. Traditionally a problematic phenomenon for Bitcoin price strength, recent moves on the index have been felt less than over the past year with BTC/USD broadly shrugging off sentiment to forge an increasingly asymmetric path.
U.S. dollar currency index 1-day candle chart. Source: Tradingview
Coming in tandem with the USD meanwhile was renewed strength in oil prices, which surged on news that Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure had suffered an attack. Output, however, has not reportedly been affected.

Stimulus checks incoming

The main impetus for dollar strength, however counterintuitive, has been news that lawmakers will inflate its supply to the tune of $1.9 trillion as they pass the latest coronavirus stimulus package. Passed by the Senate on Sunday, President Joe Biden’s sweeping cash injection piles fresh debt on the country’s existing mountain but will supply eligible Americans with $1,400 payouts. Given Bitcoin’s increased public profile this year compared to the last major stimulus payout of $1,200 in March 2020, expectations are high that at least some of the money will flow into BTC. The figures, now widely repeated online, speak for themselves. According to online monitoring resource Bitcoin Stimulus, the combined value of the two previous checks — $1,200 and $600 — would be over $10,250 as of March 4 had each recipient immediately purchased Bitcoin. Put another way, the first $1,200 stimulus bought 0.18 BTC at the time of receipt, while the $600 check bought 0.02 BTC. This time around, despite the USD amount being larger, at the time of writing, it would only be worth 0.028 BTC. Long term, meanwhile, dollar weakness weighs heavy on the minds of investors given both its supply increase and the other impacts associated with the highly controversial economic response to the virus. Despite claiming not to be a “Bitcoin maximalist,” veteran trader Peter Brandt said that Bitcoin would only profit from the current policy on longer timeframes. “The devaluation of the purchasing power of the U.S. Dollar… has only just begun,” he warned on Sunday.
“This is why Bitcoin BTC, real estate, U.S. equities and commodities will continue to trend higher when expressed in USD fiat terms.”
Brandt also revealed that his second-largest investment position after real estate is his BTC allocation.

Bitcoin sees 2nd highest weekly close

Within Bitcoin, bulls were buoyed as the weekend came and went as fresh upside took BTC/USD over $50,000. Coming in step with the stimulus announcement, local highs totalled $51,177 on Bitstamp. At the same time, positive investment news from China extended the supply shortage narrative, this focusing on institutional buy-ins reducing the already dwindling amount of BTC available for purchase on the market. Despite failing to hold on Monday, the psychologically significant level did manage to remain for the weekly close, providing Bitcoin’s second-largest weekly close on record. Analyzing trader behavior, Rafael Schultze-Kraft, co-founder and CTO of on-chain analytics resource Glassnode, forecast that a return below $46,600 is unlikely. “This support is holding nicely. And it got stronger! We now have a wall of 1.2M $BTC that moved on-chain between $46.6k and $48.6k,” he wrote on Sunday.
“That's 6.5% (!) of the circulating supply. I'd be surprised if we go below anytime soon. I was long at <$50k, and am long now anyways.”
For Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michaël van de Poppe, a conspicuous trend despite the higher price levels was an overall lack of interest among consumers in particular. “I've noticed the decrease of social media engagement and media attention on Bitcoin recently. While a few weeks ago, everyone and their parents wanted to get Bitcoin out of FOMO,” he tweeted on Monday.
“However, the current period is the time to accumulate your positions. When there's no hype.”
Popular Twitter account Bitcoin Archive agreed, responding that interest “goes up and down” along with price performance.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: Tradingview

No one's selling

Additional on-chain indicators confirmed “business as usual” among market participants. At $50,000, miners are uninterested in selling, while flows to exchanges and exchange reserves continue to decrease, data shows. For statistician Willy Woo, selling pressure has instead come from institutional players needing to prepare for reporting as Q1 comes to an end — far from a bearish signal. “Who has been selling? Apart from margin longs liquidating, my guess from the data, it's hedge funds rebalancing for end of Q1 reporting,” he told Twitter followers late last week.
“Many have mandates to rebalance when an allocation gets too big; BTC has outperformed incredibly. (Sell your winners, buy more losers).”
Woo also noted that large whales have been selling while smaller whales, who hold between 10 and 100 BTC, have increased their presence. “Looking at the age of coins in this sell off, Dormancy being low tells us, so it's young coins. It's new whales who bought in recently selling their positions,” he added alongside charts from Glassnode and his own analytics resource, Woobull. By contrast, he said, buy support is coming from “strong hodlers.”
Bitcoin average coin dormancy chart. Source: Willy Woo/ Twitter

Extreme greed is back

After a brisk drop to “fear” territory, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is back to signalling “extreme greed” among investors. Providing an indication that further price rises may be short-lived, the Index hit 81/100 on Monday, up from 76 the day before. Just a week ago, it measured 38/100.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me
Nevertheless, on-chain analysis has a convincing counterargument, with Glassnode’s Network Value to Transactions (NVT) data showing that volume has broadly accompanied recent price rises. “What defines a healthy rise in Bitcoin's price? ...one that is backed by on-chain volume!” co-founders Yann Allemann and Jan Happel tweeted referencing Woo.
“When the price increases too fast without allowing blockchain activity to catch up, it is often not sustainable.”
Bitcoin entity-adjusted NVT chart. Source: Glassnode/ Twitter
NVT has risen in a satisfyingly steady fashion since before the 2017 bull market peak.

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Spread & Containment

The Coming Of The Police State In America

The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now…

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The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now patrolling the New York City subway system in an attempt to do something about the explosion of crime. As part of this, there are bag checks and new surveillance of all passengers. No legislation, no debate, just an edict from the mayor.

Many citizens who rely on this system for transportation might welcome this. It’s a city of strict gun control, and no one knows for sure if they have the right to defend themselves. Merchants have been harassed and even arrested for trying to stop looting and pillaging in their own shops.

The message has been sent: Only the police can do this job. Whether they do it or not is another matter.

Things on the subway system have gotten crazy. If you know it well, you can manage to travel safely, but visitors to the city who take the wrong train at the wrong time are taking grave risks.

In actual fact, it’s guaranteed that this will only end in confiscating knives and other things that people carry in order to protect themselves while leaving the actual criminals even more free to prey on citizens.

The law-abiding will suffer and the criminals will grow more numerous. It will not end well.

When you step back from the details, what we have is the dawning of a genuine police state in the United States. It only starts in New York City. Where is the Guard going to be deployed next? Anywhere is possible.

If the crime is bad enough, citizens will welcome it. It must have been this way in most times and places that when the police state arrives, the people cheer.

We will all have our own stories of how this came to be. Some might begin with the passage of the Patriot Act and the establishment of the Department of Homeland Security in 2001. Some will focus on gun control and the taking away of citizens’ rights to defend themselves.

My own version of events is closer in time. It began four years ago this month with lockdowns. That’s what shattered the capacity of civil society to function in the United States. Everything that has happened since follows like one domino tumbling after another.

It goes like this:

1) lockdown,

2) loss of moral compass and spreading of loneliness and nihilism,

3) rioting resulting from citizen frustration, 4) police absent because of ideological hectoring,

5) a rise in uncontrolled immigration/refugees,

6) an epidemic of ill health from substance abuse and otherwise,

7) businesses flee the city

8) cities fall into decay, and that results in

9) more surveillance and police state.

The 10th stage is the sacking of liberty and civilization itself.

It doesn’t fall out this way at every point in history, but this seems like a solid outline of what happened in this case. Four years is a very short period of time to see all of this unfold. But it is a fact that New York City was more-or-less civilized only four years ago. No one could have predicted that it would come to this so quickly.

But once the lockdowns happened, all bets were off. Here we had a policy that most directly trampled on all freedoms that we had taken for granted. Schools, businesses, and churches were slammed shut, with various levels of enforcement. The entire workforce was divided between essential and nonessential, and there was widespread confusion about who precisely was in charge of designating and enforcing this.

It felt like martial law at the time, as if all normal civilian law had been displaced by something else. That something had to do with public health, but there was clearly more going on, because suddenly our social media posts were censored and we were being asked to do things that made no sense, such as mask up for a virus that evaded mask protection and walk in only one direction in grocery aisles.

Vast amounts of the white-collar workforce stayed home—and their kids, too—until it became too much to bear. The city became a ghost town. Most U.S. cities were the same.

As the months of disaster rolled on, the captives were let out of their houses for the summer in order to protest racism but no other reason. As a way of excusing this, the same public health authorities said that racism was a virus as bad as COVID-19, so therefore it was permitted.

The protests had turned to riots in many cities, and the police were being defunded and discouraged to do anything about the problem. Citizens watched in horror as downtowns burned and drug-crazed freaks took over whole sections of cities. It was like every standard of decency had been zapped out of an entire swath of the population.

Meanwhile, large checks were arriving in people’s bank accounts, defying every normal economic expectation. How could people not be working and get their bank accounts more flush with cash than ever? There was a new law that didn’t even require that people pay rent. How weird was that? Even student loans didn’t need to be paid.

By the fall, recess from lockdown was over and everyone was told to go home again. But this time they had a job to do: They were supposed to vote. Not at the polling places, because going there would only spread germs, or so the media said. When the voting results finally came in, it was the absentee ballots that swung the election in favor of the opposition party that actually wanted more lockdowns and eventually pushed vaccine mandates on the whole population.

The new party in control took note of the large population movements out of cities and states that they controlled. This would have a large effect on voting patterns in the future. But they had a plan. They would open the borders to millions of people in the guise of caring for refugees. These new warm bodies would become voters in time and certainly count on the census when it came time to reapportion political power.

Meanwhile, the native population had begun to swim in ill health from substance abuse, widespread depression, and demoralization, plus vaccine injury. This increased dependency on the very institutions that had caused the problem in the first place: the medical/scientific establishment.

The rise of crime drove the small businesses out of the city. They had barely survived the lockdowns, but they certainly could not survive the crime epidemic. This undermined the tax base of the city and allowed the criminals to take further control.

The same cities became sanctuaries for the waves of migrants sacking the country, and partisan mayors actually used tax dollars to house these invaders in high-end hotels in the name of having compassion for the stranger. Citizens were pushed out to make way for rampaging migrant hordes, as incredible as this seems.

But with that, of course, crime rose ever further, inciting citizen anger and providing a pretext to bring in the police state in the form of the National Guard, now tasked with cracking down on crime in the transportation system.

What’s the next step? It’s probably already here: mass surveillance and censorship, plus ever-expanding police power. This will be accompanied by further population movements, as those with the means to do so flee the city and even the country and leave it for everyone else to suffer.

As I tell the story, all of this seems inevitable. It is not. It could have been stopped at any point. A wise and prudent political leadership could have admitted the error from the beginning and called on the country to rediscover freedom, decency, and the difference between right and wrong. But ego and pride stopped that from happening, and we are left with the consequences.

The government grows ever bigger and civil society ever less capable of managing itself in large urban centers. Disaster is unfolding in real time, mitigated only by a rising stock market and a financial system that has yet to fall apart completely.

Are we at the middle stages of total collapse, or at the point where the population and people in leadership positions wise up and decide to put an end to the downward slide? It’s hard to know. But this much we do know: There is a growing pocket of resistance out there that is fed up and refuses to sit by and watch this great country be sacked and taken over by everything it was set up to prevent.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 16:20

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate…

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate iron levels in their blood due to a COVID-19 infection could be at greater risk of long COVID.

(Shutterstock)

A new study indicates that problems with iron levels in the bloodstream likely trigger chronic inflammation and other conditions associated with the post-COVID phenomenon. The findings, published on March 1 in Nature Immunology, could offer new ways to treat or prevent the condition.

Long COVID Patients Have Low Iron Levels

Researchers at the University of Cambridge pinpointed low iron as a potential link to long-COVID symptoms thanks to a study they initiated shortly after the start of the pandemic. They recruited people who tested positive for the virus to provide blood samples for analysis over a year, which allowed the researchers to look for post-infection changes in the blood. The researchers looked at 214 samples and found that 45 percent of patients reported symptoms of long COVID that lasted between three and 10 months.

In analyzing the blood samples, the research team noticed that people experiencing long COVID had low iron levels, contributing to anemia and low red blood cell production, just two weeks after they were diagnosed with COVID-19. This was true for patients regardless of age, sex, or the initial severity of their infection.

According to one of the study co-authors, the removal of iron from the bloodstream is a natural process and defense mechanism of the body.

But it can jeopardize a person’s recovery.

When the body has an infection, it responds by removing iron from the bloodstream. This protects us from potentially lethal bacteria that capture the iron in the bloodstream and grow rapidly. It’s an evolutionary response that redistributes iron in the body, and the blood plasma becomes an iron desert,” University of Oxford professor Hal Drakesmith said in a press release. “However, if this goes on for a long time, there is less iron for red blood cells, so oxygen is transported less efficiently affecting metabolism and energy production, and for white blood cells, which need iron to work properly. The protective mechanism ends up becoming a problem.”

The research team believes that consistently low iron levels could explain why individuals with long COVID continue to experience fatigue and difficulty exercising. As such, the researchers suggested iron supplementation to help regulate and prevent the often debilitating symptoms associated with long COVID.

It isn’t necessarily the case that individuals don’t have enough iron in their body, it’s just that it’s trapped in the wrong place,” Aimee Hanson, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Cambridge who worked on the study, said in the press release. “What we need is a way to remobilize the iron and pull it back into the bloodstream, where it becomes more useful to the red blood cells.”

The research team pointed out that iron supplementation isn’t always straightforward. Achieving the right level of iron varies from person to person. Too much iron can cause stomach issues, ranging from constipation, nausea, and abdominal pain to gastritis and gastric lesions.

1 in 5 Still Affected by Long COVID

COVID-19 has affected nearly 40 percent of Americans, with one in five of those still suffering from symptoms of long COVID, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Long COVID is marked by health issues that continue at least four weeks after an individual was initially diagnosed with COVID-19. Symptoms can last for days, weeks, months, or years and may include fatigue, cough or chest pain, headache, brain fog, depression or anxiety, digestive issues, and joint or muscle pain.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 12:50

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Uncategorized

February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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