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2 Breakouts That Could Provide Tremendous Upside

We’ve been in a solid secular bull market for years, but the past couple years have been difficult for sure. Still, we’ve seen plenty of stocks breaking out over and over again (ie, autos, renewable energy, etc.). But not all stocks have participated,…

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We've been in a solid secular bull market for years, but the past couple years have been difficult for sure. Still, we've seen plenty of stocks breaking out over and over again (ie, autos, renewable energy, etc.). But not all stocks have participated, even those in hot sectors or industry groups. It's always important to watch for new leaders and one way to do just that is to wait for stocks that have been consolidating for weeks, months, or maybe even years, to finally join the bullish party. Here are two such stocks:

Dropbox, Inc. (DBX)

DBX is an $11.2 billion software company that, quite frankly, missed the huge run higher in software stocks. As a result, this was a long-term relative loser that wasn't worth the investment. It's certainly been flying under the radar at EarningsBeats.com, because DBX is not on a single ChartList that we keep for our members. That may be about to change, however, as DBX suddenly has become a darling among software stocks, breaking out after a very lengthy period of consolidation:

The breakout is on both an absolute and relative basis and comes with much more bullish volume trends. It doesn't hurt that DBX has more than 8% of its float short as well. It's quite likely that we'll see short sellers forced to cover those shares or risk further losses as DBX gains ground.

Embraer Aircraft (ERJ)

Question: What do you get when you cross a red-hot asset group (small caps) with a surging industry group (aerospace)?

Answer: A rare opportunity.

ERJ is a small cap aerospace stock ($1.9 billion market cap), so it's not for those who are risk-averse. But this one sure seems to me to have tremendous opportunity ahead. Out of 104 industry groups, this is how aerospace ($DJUSAS) ranks by period:

  • 1-day performance (Friday): 2nd
  • 1-week performance: 3rd
  • 1-month performance: 11th
  • Y-T-D performance: 33rd

I'm seeing a trend here. As we move further and further into 2021, aerospace is becoming stronger and stronger. And small caps have been routinely crushing its large cap counterparts. So a small cap aerospace stock just seems to make sense, especially one that's recently printed a double bottom (black arrows below). Enter ERJ:

We're definitely seeing rotation in the stock market and ERJ has been a MAJOR beneficiary of that.

I am so encouraged by all the bullishness taking place right now across so many asset classes, sectors, industry groups, and individual stocks. The Dow Jones stormed through 32000 and 33000 is right around the corner. The S&P 500 is now sitting on the doorstep of 4000. The NASDAQ is pausing after a historic 100%+ gain in one year. Who'd have thought all this was possible one year ago (besides me)?

The most interesting part to me is how few people will embrace it for what it is - one of the best secular bull markets of our lifetime. So many pundits try to shoot this market down at every opportunity. I remember several months ago many technicians saying that the rally would fail because of the concentration in the FAANG stocks (FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL). Of these 5, only GOOGL has had any meaningful breakout since last summer. Yet all of our major indices have roared ahead. I actually saw two articles yesterday that suggested the current bull market would fail because our leaders are lagging. I swear, you can't make this stuff up.

Rotation is SOOOO important during secular bull market advances. Think about the 400-meter relay where one runner simply passes the baton to the next runner. That's what carries bull markets higher, the passing of the baton. Don't worry, the first runner will run again, just not in this race. Tomorrow, there'll be another race.

At EarningsBeats.com, we survived the pandemic with flying colors. It was obviously a very difficult time across the globe, but financially our research platform and portfolios were absolutely amazing and, I know, helped thousands of EarningsBeats.com community members, which I'm proud of. We're certainly not resting on our laurels, though. As the stock market rotates and evolves, we'll be scanning thousands of charts and identifying key intermarket relationships/changes to help us navigate the stock market in 2021 and beyond.

Over the next two weeks, we're planning to host a couple of webinars designed to communicate what we're seeing to our community members. I'll be announcing more on those webinars later this week. In the meantime, if you'd like to see a 3rd very important stock breakout (in addition to DBX and ERJ), I'll be highlighting it in our FREE EB Digest newsletter on Monday morning. If you're not currently an EB Digest subscriber, you can CLICK HERE to become part of our community of knowledgeable traders and investors. There is no credit card required and you may unsubscribe at any time.

Happy trading!

Tom

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Government

Mike Pompeo Doesn’t Rule Out Serving In 2nd Trump Administration

Mike Pompeo Doesn’t Rule Out Serving In 2nd Trump Administration

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Former Secretary…

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Mike Pompeo Doesn't Rule Out Serving In 2nd Trump Administration

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a new interview that he’s not ruling out accepting a White House position if former President Donald Trump is reelected in November.

“If I get a chance to serve and think that I can make a difference ... I’m almost certainly going to say yes to that opportunity to try and deliver on behalf of the American people,” he told Fox News, when asked during a interview if he would work for President Trump again.

I’m confident President Trump will be looking for people who will faithfully execute what it is he asked them to do,” Mr. Pompeo said during the interview, which aired on March 8. “I think as a president, you should always want that from everyone.”

Then-President Donald Trump (C), then- Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (L), and then-Vice President Mike Pence, take a question during the daily briefing on the novel coronavirus at the White House in Washington on April 8, 2020. (Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)

He said that as a former secretary of state, “I certainly wanted my team to do what I was asking them to do and was enormously frustrated when I found that I couldn’t get them to do that.”

Mr. Pompeo, a former U.S. representative from Kansas, served as Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) director in the Trump administration from 2017 to 2018 before he was secretary of state from 2018 to 2021. After he left office, there was speculation that he could mount a Republican presidential bid in 2024, but announced that he wouldn’t be running.

President Trump hasn’t publicly commented about Mr. Pompeo’s remarks.

In 2023, amid speculation that he would make a run for the White House, Mr. Pompeo took a swipe at his former boss, telling Fox News at the time that “the Trump administration spent $6 trillion more than it took in, adding to the deficit.”

“That’s never the right direction for the country,” he said.

In a public appearance last year, Mr. Pompeo also appeared to take a shot at the 45th president by criticizing “celebrity leaders” when urging GOP voters to choose ahead of the 2024 election.

2024 Race

Mr. Pompeo’s interview comes as the former president was named the “presumptive nominee” by the Republican National Committee (RNC) last week after his last major Republican challenger, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, dropped out of the 2024 race after failing to secure enough delegates. President Trump won 14 out of 15 states on Super Tuesday, with only Vermont—which notably has an open primary—going for Ms. Haley, who served as President Trump’s U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.

On March 8, the RNC held a meeting in Houston during which committee members voted in favor of President Trump’s nomination.

“Congratulations to President Donald J. Trump on his huge primary victory!” the organization said in a statement last week. “I’d also like to congratulate Nikki Haley for running a hard-fought campaign and becoming the first woman to win a Republican presidential contest.”

Earlier this year, the former president criticized the idea of being named the presumptive nominee after reports suggested that the RNC would do so before the Super Tuesday contests and while Ms. Haley was still in the race.

Also on March 8, the RNC voted to name Trump-endorsed officials to head the organization. Michael Whatley, a North Carolina Republican, was elected the party’s new national chairman in a vote in Houston, and Lara Trump, the former president’s daughter-in-law, was voted in as co-chair.

“The RNC is going to be the vanguard of a movement that will work tirelessly every single day to elect our nominee, Donald J. Trump, as the 47th President of the United States,” Mr. Whatley told RNC members in a speech after being elected, replacing former chair Ronna McDaniel. Ms. Trump is expected to focus largely on fundraising and media appearances.

President Trump hasn’t signaled whom he would appoint to various federal agencies if he’s reelected in November. He also hasn’t said who his pick for a running mate would be, but has offered several suggestions in recent interviews.

In various interviews, the former president has mentioned Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), Vivek Ramaswamy, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, among others.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/13/2024 - 17:00

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International

Riley Gaines Explains How Women’s Sports Are Rigged To Promote The Trans Agenda

Riley Gaines Explains How Women’s Sports Are Rigged To Promote The Trans Agenda

Is there a light forming when it comes to the long, dark and…

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Riley Gaines Explains How Women's Sports Are Rigged To Promote The Trans Agenda

Is there a light forming when it comes to the long, dark and bewildering tunnel of social justice cultism?  Global events have been so frenetic that many people might not remember, but only a couple years ago Big Tech companies and numerous governments were openly aligned in favor of mass censorship.  Not just to prevent the public from investigating the facts surrounding the pandemic farce, but to silence anyone questioning the validity of woke concepts like trans ideology. 

From 2020-2022 was the closest the west has come in a long time to a complete erasure of freedom of speech.  Even today there are still countries and Europe and places like Canada or Australia that are charging forward with draconian speech laws.  The phrase "radical speech" is starting to circulate within pro-censorship circles in reference to any platform where people are allowed to talk critically.  What is radical speech?  Basically, it's any discussion that runs contrary to the beliefs of the political left.

Open hatred of moderate or conservative ideals is perfectly acceptable, but don't ever shine a negative light on woke activism, or you might be a terrorist.

Riley Gaines has experienced this double standard first hand.  She was even assaulted and taken hostage at an event in 2023 at San Francisco State University when leftists protester tried to trap her in a room and demanded she "pay them to let her go."  Campus police allegedly witnessed the incident but charges were never filed and surveillance footage from the college was never released.  

It's probably the last thing a champion female swimmer ever expects, but her head-on collision with the trans movement and the institutional conspiracy to push it on the public forced her to become a counter-culture voice of reason rather than just an athlete.

For years the independent media argued that no matter how much we expose the insanity of men posing as women to compete and dominate women's sports, nothing will really change until the real female athletes speak up and fight back.  Riley Gaines and those like her represent that necessary rebellion and a desperately needed return to common sense and reason.

In a recent interview on the Joe Rogan Podcast, Gaines related some interesting information on the inner workings of the NCAA and the subversive schemes surrounding trans athletes.  Not only were women participants essentially strong-armed by colleges and officials into quietly going along with the program, there was also a concerted propaganda effort.  Competition ceremonies were rigged as vehicles for promoting trans athletes over everyone else. 

The bottom line?  The competitions didn't matter.  The real women and their achievements didn't matter.  The only thing that mattered to officials were the photo ops; dudes pretending to be chicks posing with awards for the gushing corporate media.  The agenda took precedence.

Lia Thomas, formerly known as William Thomas, was more than an activist invading female sports, he was also apparently a science project fostered and protected by the athletic establishment.  It's important to understand that the political left does not care about female athletes.  They do not care about women's sports.  They don't care about the integrity of the environments they co-opt.  Their only goal is to identify viable platforms with social impact and take control of them.  Women's sports are seen as a vehicle for public indoctrination, nothing more.

The reasons why they covet women's sports are varied, but a primary motive is the desire to assert the fallacy that men and women are "the same" psychologically as well as physically.  They want the deconstruction of biological sex and identity as nothing more than "social constructs" subject to personal preference.  If they can destroy what it means to be a man or a woman, they can destroy the very foundations of relationships, families and even procreation.  

For now it seems as though the trans agenda is hitting a wall with much of the public aware of it and less afraid to criticize it.  Social media companies might be able to silence some people, but they can't silence everyone.  However, there is still a significant threat as the movement continues to target children through the public education system and women's sports are not out of the woods yet.   

The ultimate solution is for women athletes around the world to organize and widely refuse to participate in any competitions in which biological men are allowed.  The only way to save women's sports is for women to be willing to end them, at least until institutions that put doctrine ahead of logic are made irrelevant.          

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/13/2024 - 17:20

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Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024
A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

I always like to star…

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Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024

A brief excerpt:
This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

I always like to start with inventory, since inventory usually tells the tale!
...
Here is a graph of new listing from Realtor.com’s February 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report showing new listings were up 11.3% year-over-year in February. This is still well below pre-pandemic levels. From Realtor.com:

However, providing a boost to overall inventory, sellers turned out in higher numbers this February as newly listed homes were 11.3% above last year’s levels. This marked the fourth month of increasing listing activity after a 17-month streak of decline.
Note the seasonality for new listings. December and January are seasonally the weakest months of the year for new listings, followed by February and November. New listings will be up year-over-year in 2024, but we will have to wait for the March and April data to see how close new listings are to normal levels.

There are always people that need to sell due to the so-called 3 D’s: Death, Divorce, and Disease. Also, in certain times, some homeowners will need to sell due to unemployment or excessive debt (neither is much of an issue right now).

And there are homeowners who want to sell for a number of reasons: upsizing (more babies), downsizing, moving for a new job, or moving to a nicer home or location (move-up buyers). It is some of the “want to sell” group that has been locked in with the golden handcuffs over the last couple of years, since it is financially difficult to move when your current mortgage rate is around 3%, and your new mortgage rate will be in the 6 1/2% to 7% range.

But time is a factor for this “want to sell” group, and eventually some of them will take the plunge. That is probably why we are seeing more new listings now.
There is much more in the article.

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