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Yes, Virginia, The System Is Clearly Rigged

Yes, Virginia, The System Is Clearly Rigged

Authored by Omid Malekan via Medium.com,

Before sharing my opinion on the WallStreetBets events of last week, I want to make one thing clear: I believe strategies like the ones used to drive the…

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Yes, Virginia, The System Is Clearly Rigged

Authored by Omid Malekan via Medium.com,

Before sharing my opinion on the WallStreetBets events of last week, I want to make one thing clear: I believe strategies like the ones used to drive the price of Gamestop stock higher are reckless and dangerous. I would never participate in them. They are likely to end badly for the majority of those who get involved.

With that out of the way, let’s review something important that happened last year, when big cap tech stocks like Tesla and Apple started exhibiting unusual volatility to the upside. It turned out that Softbank, one of the largest institutional investors in the world, had been executing a dangerous strategy of buying record amounts of out of the money call options on those stocks. Their actions forced some of the options trading establishment into something called a gamma squeeze, a positive feedback loop that can be thought of as the options markets’ equivalent of a short squeeze. Here’s the FT:

The surge in purchases of call options — derivatives that give the user the right to buy a stock at a pre-agreed price — has been the talk of Wall Street, as the sheer size of the trades appears to have exacerbated a “melt-up” in many big technology stocks over the past few months. In August alone, Tesla’s share price shot up 74 per cent, while Apple gained 21 per cent, Google’s parent Alphabet rose 10 per cent and Amazon 9 per cent.

One person familiar with SoftBank’s trades said it was “gobbling up” options on a scale that was even making some people within the organization nervous. “People are caught with their pants down, massively short. This can continue. The whale is still hungry.”

As the article also points out, it was generally understood that what Softbank was doing (with billions of dollars, no less) was dangerous. Not only could it end badly for them, but it had painted other players into a corner, creating a dangerous dynamic that could reverse abruptly.

Now, knowing all of that, and having seen the systematic crackdown on retail investors executing a similar strategy last week, we can ask a few simple questions:

  1. How many of Softbank’s service providers refused to execute their trades? How many banks, prime brokers or options dealers said “sorry, this a dangerous strategy that will end badly, plus it puts the rest of the market at risk. You can no longer buy call options on these particular stocks”?

  2. How many veteran financial reporters working in TV or print expressed shock and outrage? How many pontificated out loud about the blatant disregard for fundamental analysis?

  3. How many people at the SEC, Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury or even the White House actively monitored the situation and worried about the safety of the market?

  4. How many people within the traditional financial establishment argued that perhaps we need tighter regulations to prevent this sort of thing from happening?

You already know the answer to all of these questions. Even if you don’t understand the technical aspects of how Wall Street works, you know in your heart that so-called institutional investors often do risky, dangerous, and (in retrospect) stupid things, but nobody ever stops them. This despite the fact that every once in a while those same strategies end in disaster and put the rest of the financial system, not to mention the broader economy, in jeopardy.

You know this because in the back of your mind, you remember something about a fund called Long Term Capital, which was run by Nobel prize winners, blowing up in the late 1990s. You lived through the 2008 crisis and may have read a book like Too Big to Fail or seen a movie like The Big Short. You vaguely remember reading about something called a repo crisis in 2019. You recall how just last year, at the start of the Covid crash, central banks like the Federal Reserve had to pump ten times more money into Wall Street than Main Street, even though ordinary people needed the money more.

What you understand intuitively about all of these events is that the pros — the supposedly sophisticated investors who control the vast majority of capital in the world — somehow fucked up. They did things that enriched them, but ended up costing society as a whole. And yet, not only did nobody in a position of power try to stop them, but regulators and government representatives — the people who are supposed to be looking out for your best interests — argued that your tax dollars should be used to bail them out. Their gambling didn’t make you any richer, but their crapping out still cost you.

Despite what the financial media would like you to believe, the most surprising thing about last week wasn’t the fact that a bunch of beaten down stocks went flying. Crazy shit happens in the stock market all of the time, especially in an era of record monetization when the Federal Reserve prints money faster than Taylor Swift releases albums.

Most of the self-righteous hand wringing was an act. Aggressive investors utilizing leverage in herd-like fashion to pursue a risky bet is nothing new. It’s called trading, and that’s what most money mangers do. They don’t invest. There’s a reason why banks and hedge funds have trading desks and people call it the trading day.

No. The real controversy last week was about who was winning and who was losing. Retail people on apps like Robinhood aren’t supposed to stick it to the big boys. They are supposed to be the so-called dumb money, the schools of tiny fish that exist so whales like Softbank and Citadel have something to feast on. People who go to Davos aren’t supposed to lose money to kids from Denver. But last week, they did. That’s why the financial establishment reacted so strongly.

Let me pause here to reiterate my belief that I think this kind of trading is extremely risky and not that far removed from betting at the track, regardless of who is doing it. I strongly advise everyone I know to stay way from margin trading, options and short squeezes. That said, I think people should be free to do whatever they want with their money, especially now that their central bank is doing everything it can to destroy its integrity.

I am outraged by the hypocrisy of the financial services industry. Any doubt that the system is rigged has been eliminated. Why do the rich only ever get richer? Because of what happened last week.

In all my years of working in this industry, I have never heard of brokers pulling the plug on their clients because they were making too much money.

If anyone is to be banned from putting on risky trades, it should be the supposedly sophisticated hedge funds who’ve needed to be bailed again and again, not your cousin who recently bought a few shares of GME in her Robinhood app. Your cousin wasn’t the one who fucked up in 1998 or 2008 or 2019 or 2020. She didn’t drive Lehman Brothers into the ground or destroy MF Global.

But the financial establishment — the same establishment who’s always gone out of its way to celebrate people like John Meriwether, Dick Fuld and John Corzine — decided that your cousin wasn’t allowed to play the same game, and had the audacity to pretend this was for her own protection.

The fact that she was making money off of hedge funds like D1 (one of Robinhood’s biggest investors) and Citadel (one of Robinhood’s biggest sources of revenues) had nothing to do with it. The fact that Ben Bernanke has been a senior advisor to Citadel and Janet Yellen has collected almost a million dollars in speaking fees from the same firm had nothing to do with it.

The issue here isn’t how the aggressive buying of stocks like Gamestop ends, because it’ll probably end badly. The issue is that nobody ever tries to stop hedge fund managers from doing the same exact thing. When they gamble with our futures, it’s called capitalism. But when retail people do it, it’s a menace to society that must be stopped.

Firms like Robinhood are now claiming that they didn’t freeze trading in a handful of stocks because of some nefarious conspiracy. They did it because the back-end clearinghouses like DTCC who process their trades forced them to put up too much capital for those names. Here’s the New York Times:

A more detailed explanation: Brokerages post money with the D.T.C.C. to cover customers’ transactions while they wait for the trades to settle. With such a big surge in trading, the clearing hub wanted more assurance: “It’s the D.T.C.C. saying ‘This stuff is just too risky,’ ” said the Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Larry Tabb.

Other online brokerages also cited the D.T.C.C. as a factor in decisions to impose trading restrictions.

The brilliance of this excuse is that it only proves the skeptics and conspiracy-theory believers right. DTCC is a for-profit monopoly that sits at the heart of America’s financial system. It is controlled by the biggest Wall Street institutions and responsible for all public equity settlement. A subsidiary of it literally owns every single share of publicly traded stock in America. Yes, you read that correctly. You don’t actually own your shares of Apple or Microsoft, they do. You are only allowed to enjoy the financial benefits of being an investor because your corporate overlords let you. Why? Because the government wants it that way (the fact that financial firms like DTCC always donate a lot of money to politicians has nothing to do with it.)

It’s quite possible that the above justification for the crackdown is technically true: clearinghouses and firms like DTCC suddenly jacked up their collateral requirements because they were afraid the short squeeze would reverse and end badly. On the surface, this is plausible.

But why have we never heard of the same thing happening to the institutions who also pursue risky trades, use margin, trade options, and often pile into the same crowded trades? Why didn’t this sort of thing happen last year, at the start of the pandemic? Surely an environment where everything is crashing is more dangerous to the back-end plumbing of Wall Street than one where only a few stocks are going up.

And therein lies the rub. Hedge funds and billionaires didn’t have to be restricted last year because the government intervened and used trillions of dollars of your money to make sure “the system” kept working for them. Just like it had in 2019, 2008 and 1998.

Ordinary people don’t get that kind of protection, so they aren’t allowed to play. The billionaires who build ridiculous mansions too close to the water get free flood insurance, but you are a mere renter, so you don’t qualify.

If our financial system was remotely fair, or at least consistent in its response to unusual developments, then the Fed would have been on the phone with DTCC and Robinhood all week, offering liquidity injections and credit lines to keep the system working. The Treasury department would have begun planning an emergency fund to bail out Gamestop and AMC shareholders if the need arose, and Congress would have begun deliberations on the Troubled Retail Investor Relief Program.

If.

Years from now, when most of the world has moved on to a different kind of financial system, a fully transparent one built on fundamental properties of equality and censorship resistance, we will look back on the events of this past week as a key turning point.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/31/2021 - 19:30

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Analyst reviews Apple stock price target amid challenges

Here’s what could happen to Apple shares next.

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They said it was bound to happen.

It was Jan. 11, 2024 when software giant Microsoft  (MSFT)  briefly passed Apple  (AAPL)  as the most valuable company in the world.

Microsoft's stock closed 0.5% higher, giving it a market valuation of $2.859 trillion. 

It rose as much as 2% during the session and the company was briefly worth $2.903 trillion. Apple closed 0.3% lower, giving the company a market capitalization of $2.886 trillion. 

"It was inevitable that Microsoft would overtake Apple since Microsoft is growing faster and has more to benefit from the generative AI revolution," D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria said at the time, according to Reuters.

The two tech titans have jostled for top spot over the years and Microsoft was ahead at last check, with a market cap of $3.085 trillion, compared with Apple's value of $2.684 trillion.

Analysts noted that Apple had been dealing with weakening demand, including for the iPhone, the company’s main source of revenue. 

Demand in China, a major market, has slumped as the country's economy makes a slow recovery from the pandemic and competition from Huawei.

Sales in China of Apple's iPhone fell by 24% in the first six weeks of 2024 compared with a year earlier, according to research firm Counterpoint, as the company contended with stiff competition from a resurgent Huawei "while getting squeezed in the middle on aggressive pricing from the likes of OPPO, vivo and Xiaomi," said senior Analyst Mengmeng Zhang.

“Although the iPhone 15 is a great device, it has no significant upgrades from the previous version, so consumers feel fine holding on to the older-generation iPhones for now," he said.

A man scrolling through Netflix on an Apple iPad Pro. Photo by Phil Barker/Future Publishing via Getty Images.

Future Publishing/Getty Images

Big plans for China

Counterpoint said that the first six weeks of 2023 saw abnormally high numbers with significant unit sales being deferred from December 2022 due to production issues.

Apple is planning to open its eighth store in Shanghai – and its 47th across China – on March 21.

Related: Tech News Now: OpenAI says Musk contract 'never existed', Xiaomi's EV, and more

The company also plans to expand its research centre in Shanghai to support all of its product lines and open a new lab in southern tech hub Shenzhen later this year, according to the South China Morning Post.

Meanwhile, over in Europe, Apple announced changes to comply with the European Union's Digital Markets Act (DMA), which went into effect last week, Reuters reported on March 12.

Beginning this spring, software developers operating in Europe will be able to distribute apps to EU customers directly from their own websites instead of through the App Store.

"To reflect the DMA’s changes, users in the EU can install apps from alternative app marketplaces in iOS 17.4 and later," Apple said on its website, referring to the software platform that runs iPhones and iPads. 

"Users will be able to download an alternative marketplace app from the marketplace developer’s website," the company said.

Apple has also said it will appeal a $2 billion EU antitrust fine for thwarting competition from Spotify  (SPOT)  and other music streaming rivals via restrictions on the App Store.

The company's shares have suffered amid all this upheaval, but some analysts still see good things in Apple's future.

Bank of America Securities confirmed its positive stance on Apple, maintaining a buy rating with a steady price target of $225, according to Investing.com

The firm's analysis highlighted Apple's pricing strategy evolution since the introduction of the first iPhone in 2007, with initial prices set at $499 for the 4GB model and $599 for the 8GB model.

BofA said that Apple has consistently launched new iPhone models, including the Pro/Pro Max versions, to target the premium market. 

Analyst says Apple selloff 'overdone'

Concurrently, prices for previous models are typically reduced by about $100 with each new release. 

This strategy, coupled with installment plans from Apple and carriers, has contributed to the iPhone's installed base reaching a record 1.2 billion in 2023, the firm said.

More Tech Stocks:

Apple has effectively shifted its sales mix toward higher-value units despite experiencing slower unit sales, BofA said.

This trend is expected to persist and could help mitigate potential unit sales weaknesses, particularly in China. 

BofA also noted Apple's dominance in the high-end market, maintaining a market share of over 90% in the $1,000 and above price band for the past three years.

The firm also cited the anticipation of a multi-year iPhone cycle propelled by next-generation AI technology, robust services growth, and the potential for margin expansion.

On Monday, Evercore ISI analysts said they believed that the sell-off in the iPhone maker’s shares may be “overdone.”

The firm said that investors' growing preference for AI-focused stocks like Nvidia  (NVDA)  has led to a reallocation of funds away from Apple. 

In addition, Evercore said concerns over weakening demand in China, where Apple may be losing market share in the smartphone segment, have affected investor sentiment.

And then ongoing regulatory issues continue to have an impact on investor confidence in the world's second-biggest company.

“We think the sell-off is rather overdone, while we suspect there is strong valuation support at current levels to down 10%, there are three distinct drivers that could unlock upside on the stock from here – a) Cap allocation, b) AI inferencing, and c) Risk-off/defensive shift," the firm said in a research note.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Major typhoid fever surveillance study in sub-Saharan Africa indicates need for the introduction of typhoid conjugate vaccines in endemic countries

There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high…

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There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high burden combined with the threat of typhoid strains resistant to antibiotic treatment calls for stronger prevention strategies, including the use and implementation of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) in endemic settings along with improvements in access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene.

Credit: IVI

There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high burden combined with the threat of typhoid strains resistant to antibiotic treatment calls for stronger prevention strategies, including the use and implementation of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) in endemic settings along with improvements in access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene.

 

The findings from this 4-year study, the Severe Typhoid in Africa (SETA) program, offers new typhoid fever burden estimates from six countries: Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Ghana, Madagascar, and Nigeria, with four countries recording more than 100 cases for every 100,000 person-years of observation, which is considered a high burden. The highest incidence of typhoid was found in DRC with 315 cases per 100,000 people while children between 2-14 years of age were shown to be at highest risk across all 25 study sites.

 

There are an estimated 12.5 to 16.3 million cases of typhoid every year with 140,000 deaths. However, with generic symptoms such as fever, fatigue, and abdominal pain, and the need for blood culture sampling to make a definitive diagnosis, it is difficult for governments to capture the true burden of typhoid in their countries.

 

“Our goal through SETA was to address these gaps in typhoid disease burden data,” said lead author Dr. Florian Marks, Deputy Director General of the International Vaccine Institute (IVI). “Our estimates indicate that introduction of TCV in endemic settings would go to lengths in protecting communities, especially school-aged children, against this potentially deadly—but preventable—disease.”

 

In addition to disease incidence, this study also showed that the emergence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Salmonella Typhi, the bacteria that causes typhoid fever, has led to more reliance beyond the traditional first line of antibiotic treatment. If left untreated, severe cases of the disease can lead to intestinal perforation and even death. This suggests that prevention through vaccination may play a critical role in not only protecting against typhoid fever but reducing the spread of drug-resistant strains of the bacteria.

 

There are two TCVs prequalified by the World Health Organization (WHO) and available through Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. In February 2024, IVI and SK bioscience announced that a third TCV, SKYTyphoid™, also achieved WHO PQ, paving the way for public procurement and increasing the global supply.

 

Alongside the SETA disease burden study, IVI has been working with colleagues in three African countries to show the real-world impact of TCV vaccination. These studies include a cluster-randomized trial in Agogo, Ghana and two effectiveness studies following mass vaccination in Kisantu, DRC and Imerintsiatosika, Madagascar.

 

Dr. Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse, Associate Director General at IVI and Head of the Real-World Evidence Department, explains, “Through these vaccine effectiveness studies, we aim to show the full public health value of TCV in settings that are directly impacted by a high burden of typhoid fever.” He adds, “Our final objective of course is to eliminate typhoid or to at least reduce the burden to low incidence levels, and that’s what we are attempting in Fiji with an island-wide vaccination campaign.”

 

As more countries in typhoid endemic countries, namely in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, consider TCV in national immunization programs, these data will help inform evidence-based policy decisions around typhoid prevention and control.

 

###

 

About the International Vaccine Institute (IVI)
The International Vaccine Institute (IVI) is a non-profit international organization established in 1997 at the initiative of the United Nations Development Programme with a mission to discover, develop, and deliver safe, effective, and affordable vaccines for global health.

IVI’s current portfolio includes vaccines at all stages of pre-clinical and clinical development for infectious diseases that disproportionately affect low- and middle-income countries, such as cholera, typhoid, chikungunya, shigella, salmonella, schistosomiasis, hepatitis E, HPV, COVID-19, and more. IVI developed the world’s first low-cost oral cholera vaccine, pre-qualified by the World Health Organization (WHO) and developed a new-generation typhoid conjugate vaccine that is recently pre-qualified by WHO.

IVI is headquartered in Seoul, Republic of Korea with a Europe Regional Office in Sweden, a Country Office in Austria, and Collaborating Centers in Ghana, Ethiopia, and Madagascar. 39 countries and the WHO are members of IVI, and the governments of the Republic of Korea, Sweden, India, Finland, and Thailand provide state funding. For more information, please visit https://www.ivi.int.

 

CONTACT

Aerie Em, Global Communications & Advocacy Manager
+82 2 881 1386 | aerie.em@ivi.int


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US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever… And Debt Explodes

US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever… And Debt Explodes

Earlier today, CNBC’s…

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US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever... And Debt Explodes

Earlier today, CNBC's Brian Sullivan took a horse dose of Red Pills when, about six months after our readers, he learned that the US is issuing $1 trillion in debt every 100 days, which prompted him to rage tweet, (or rageX, not sure what the proper term is here) the following:

We’ve added 60% to national debt since 2018. Germany - a country with major economic woes - added ‘just’ 32%.   

Maybe it will never matter.   Maybe MMT is real.   Maybe we just cancel or inflate it out. Maybe career real estate borrowers or career politicians aren’t the answer.

I have no idea.  Only time will tell.   But it’s going to be fascinating to watch it play out.

He is right: it will be fascinating, and the latest budget deficit data simply confirmed that the day of reckoning will come very soon, certainly sooner than the two years that One River's Eric Peters predicted this weekend for the coming "US debt sustainability crisis."

According to the US Treasury, in February, the US collected $271 billion in various tax receipts, and spent $567 billion, more than double what it collected.

The two charts below show the divergence in US tax receipts which have flatlined (on a trailing 6M basis) since the covid pandemic in 2020 (with occasional stimmy-driven surges)...

... and spending which is about 50% higher compared to where it was in 2020.

The end result is that in February, the budget deficit rose to $296.3 billion, up 12.9% from a year prior, and the second highest February deficit on record.

And the punchline: on a cumulative basis, the budget deficit in fiscal 2024 which began on October 1, 2023 is now $828 billion, the second largest cumulative deficit through February on record, surpassed only by the peak covid year of 2021.

But wait there's more: because in a world where the US is spending more than twice what it is collecting, the endgame is clear: debt collapse, and while it won't be tomorrow, or the week after, it is coming... and it's also why the US is now selling $1 trillion in debt every 100 days just to keep operating (and absorbing all those millions of illegal immigrants who will keep voting democrat to preserve the socialist system of the US, so beloved by the Soros clan).

And it gets even worse, because we are now in the ponzi finance stage of the Minsky cycle, with total interest on the debt annualizing well above $1 trillion, and rising every day

... having already surpassed total US defense spending and soon to surpass total health spending and, finally all social security spending, the largest spending category of all, which means that US debt will now rise exponentially higher until the inevitable moment when the US dollar loses its reserve status and it all comes crashing down.

We conclude with another observation by CNBC's Brian Sullivan, who quotes an email by a DC strategist...

.. which lays out the proposed Biden budget as follows:

The budget deficit will growth another $16 TRILLION over next 10 years. Thats *with* the proposed massive tax hikes.

Without them the deficit will grow $19 trillion.

That's why you will hear the "deficit is being reduced by $3 trillion" over the decade.

No family budget or business could exist with this kind of math.

Of course, in the long run, neither can the US... and since neither party will ever cut the spending which everyone by now is so addicted to, the best anyone can do is start planning for the endgame.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/12/2024 - 18:40

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