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With Recession Now Guaranteed, The “One-Term” White House Begins To Panic

With Recession Now Guaranteed, The "One-Term" White House Begins To Panic

Listening to Powell speak during the press conference, one would…



With Recession Now Guaranteed, The "One-Term" White House Begins To Panic

Listening to Powell speak during the press conference, one would think that when it comes to the economy, it's blue skies as far as the eye can see:




Unfortunately, that's not exactly "true"... Jeff Gundlach was quick to point out...

... and the latest CEO confidence print outright refuted Biden's optimism:

“CEO confidence declined sharply in the second quarter of the year for the fourth straight time. The Conference Board’s measure slipped to 42 in the second quarter, the lowest level since the onset of the pandemic, from 57 in the prior period. Historically, a reading of that level has coincided with profits recessions or negative year-over-year changes in earnings. Over the past 40 years, the measure has only been that low in 1980, 1991, 2001, 2008, 2012 and 2020“

But what is more remarkable is that according to even the latest estimates from Bloomberg Economics, which of course is tied to Bloomberg, a pro-Biden liberal media outlet run by Democrat billionaire Michael Bloomberg, a recession by the start of 2024, barely even on the radar of most economists just a few months ago (if not this site), is now virtually assured at close to a three-in-four probability.

Bloomberg next repeats - with a long delay - something else we said all the way back in December, namely that the Fed outsized rate hike has pushed the economy into a recession...

... to wit:

On Wednesday the Fed delivered its biggest interest-rate hike in almost three decades, as it takes the fight against inflation into overdrive. When central bankers try this hard to slow the economy down, they often end up tipping it into outright reverse.

America's 'Misery Index' - a broad measure of household wellbeing that combines unemployment rates with inflation rates - has not been this high since President Biden was last in The White House (as VP for Obama in 2011). However, it's different this time as previously it was labor market strains that spiked the 'misery', this time it is the soaring cost of living:

"People think they probably won't be unemployed," says Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller.

"Inflation affects everyone. Every time they go to the store they see inflation and it makes them angry."

And their reaction, he says, is: "Let's blame somebody."

An 'adjusted' Misery Index (which combines Consumer Price Inflation with the US Labor Force Participation Rate for a broader measure of 'misery') suggests the 'average Joe' has not been in this desperate a situation since Jimmy Carter's presidency...

And while Bloomberg can trot out the blame game, the reality is that absent a miracle a recession is now unavoidable, which also means that Biden is a one-termer:

Still, the mood has turned sour at an alarming pace -- putting Biden at risk of joining an unenvied club. From Jimmy Carter to George H.W. Bush to Donald Trump, one-term US presidents of the past half-century all had their re-election hopes fatally injured by the lingering effects of a recession.

It was bad enough that even before the upcoming recession Democrats were looking at a humiliating drubbing in the November midterms...

... but add the economic devastation on deck, and Republicans are looking at full control of Washington again in 2024:

That prospect is already causing turmoil in the Biden camp, ahead of crucial midterm elections in November when his Democrats must defend thin majorities in Congress — or risk losing what ability they have to get legislation passed, including measures to lift the economy if it slumps.

The economic collapse on deck also means that Democrats are about to unleash the gaslighting machine like never before, blaming everyone and everything, from Putin, to Yellen, to Exxon, to climate change (and yes, eventually even Biden golden-boy Zelensky) for the pain ordinary households are experiencing... just not themselves of course:

Voters are telling Democratic pollsters they see economic storms brewing. Key decisions on issues like student loans are paralyzed by inflation fears, according to one person familiar with White House deliberations. The administration is casting around for outside-the box fixes to show they’re fighting for hard-pressed households, from a windfall tax on oil profits to commitments by retailers to cut prices if China tariffs are removed. And its economists are laying out arguments for why the soaring cost of living isn’t Biden’s fault — and the economy is much better than voters seem to think it is.

Sadly for the liberal propaganda machine, they'll have to to much better:

“We ask, ‘If the economy were the weather, how would you describe it?’” asks Celinda Lake, one of Biden’s top pollsters during the 2020 election, who says her focus groups are awash with talk of the rising cost of gas and housing — and how wages aren’t keeping up.

"Voters have been describing storms and thunderstorms." she answers.

And then there is of course the bear market, which the White House is about to learn that mixed with a recession polls even worse than hyperinflation. In fact, as we noted earlier, it has been a hell of a week for Biden:

... and it's only Wednesday.

As for Republicans, it's their elections to lose. As Bloomberg notes, the Republican line is that Biden and his team share the blame for soaring prices - which they do - because they pumped another $1.9 trillion of stimulus into the economy in March 2021 when it was already recovering.

“They put money into everybody's pockets but they didn’t do anything in terms of supply-chain issues,” says David Winston, a GOP pollster and strategist who helps craft economic messaging for Republican leadership in Congress.

“When you increase demand but you don’t figure out how to increase supply at the same time, you get inflation.”

Which is not to say that the White House won't go down swinging: "the administration’s economists have modeled extreme scenarios — from a new coronavirus variant to an even bigger spike in oil prices — so that they’re prepared to act fast in case of emergency, a senior White House official said."

In short, get ready for another surprise, "emergency" shock meant to distract from the shitshow that is Biden's economy and Powell's galloping inflation and bear market. Only, after the fiasco that was the monkeypox false start, it's difficult to visualize what - short of a staged war over Taiwan - the Biden propaganda machine will come up with. One thing  is certain - it will try, and if not this year, brace for a very hot summer, full of Soros-funded protests, in both 2023 and 2024 as Democrats go all in on avoiding another humiliating sweep in 2024, with Trump lurking in the shadows.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/15/2022 - 19:27

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Spread & Containment

FTSE 100 gains as commodity-linked stocks bounce back

The commodity-heavy FTSE 100 gained 0.4%, while mid-cap FTSE 250 index inched up 0.3% UK’s FTSE 100 gained on Monday, as an easing of COVID-19 restrictions…



The commodity-heavy FTSE 100 gained 0.4%, while mid-cap FTSE 250 index inched up 0.3%

UK’s FTSE 100 gained on Monday, as an easing of COVID-19 restrictions in China brought relief to commodity prices, lifting shares of major oil and mining companies.

As of 0704 GMT, the commodity-heavy FTSE 100 gained 0.4%, while mid-cap FTSE 250 index inched up 0.3%.

The risk sentiment improved after a Wall Street rally late last week and a rebound in copper and iron ore prices on Monday, boosted by an easing COVID-19 restrictions in Shanghai and relaxed testing mandates in several Chinese cities.

The burst of global enthusiasm for equities has put a spring in the step of the FTSE 100 at the start of the week, Hargreaves Lansdown analyst Susannah Streeter said.

Mining stocks led gains on the FTSE 100 index, with Anglo American, Rio Tinto and Glencore rising more than 3%, after Group of Seven leaders pledged to raise $600 billion private and public funds in five years to finance needed infrastructure in developing countries.

It is hoped this scheme, seen as a counter to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, will set off a spurt of spending and demand for commodities around the world, Streeter added.

Among individual stocks, CareTech surged 20.8% after the UK-based provider of care and residential services agreed to be acquired by a consortium led by Sheikh Hoidings in an 870.3 million pounds ($1.07 billion) deal.

Carnival Corp jumped 5.6%, extending its Friday gains after the leisure travel company forecast a positive core profit for the current quarter despite surging costs.

London-listed shares of Rio Tinto added 2% after a U.S appeals court ruled that the federal government may give the UK copper miner a right to lands in Arizona.

BAE Systems inched up 0.4% after the defence company received a $12 billion contract from the U.S Department of Defence.

The post FTSE 100 gains as commodity-linked stocks bounce back first appeared on Trading and Investment News.

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The Depopulation Of Taiwan

The Depopulation Of Taiwan

Authored by Igor Chudov via Igor’s Newsletter,

This is a continuation of my post from yesterday about a massive…



The Depopulation Of Taiwan

Authored by Igor Chudov via Igor's Newsletter,

This is a continuation of my post from yesterday about a massive 13% decline in births in Germany. Such a decline is a nine-sigma event, meaning that it is so unlikely to occur by chance, that it would naturally happen as rarely as an asteroid striking the Earth.

My article explored several more locales (UK, North Dakota, and Switzerland).

But no other place stands out as much as Taiwan does.

23% Drop in Birth Rate in Taiwan

According to a Taiwan government report, the birth rate dropped by 23.24% in May 2022, compared to May 2021.

I inputted historical birth rate data from Macrotrends for the years 2009-2021, and added the year 2022 as year 2021 adjusted down by 23.24%. Obviously, 2022 is not over and the number of Taiwanese babies to be born this year (or during the next 12 months) is unknown. So the chart below is an illustration of what would happen in the next 12 months if the 23.24% drop stays constant.

When expressed in “sigmas”, units of standard deviation, the 23.24% drop in the birth rate in Taiwan is a 26-sigma event!

This is can be described as “unimaginable” in terms of the likelihood of happening due to random chance.

The Wolfram-Alpha illustration of likelihood by sigma only goes to ten-sigma. They thought that it would be pointless to show more sigmas. Except a 26-sigma drop in birth rate just happened in Taiwan.

What Happened In Taiwan?

Health experts are quick to blame Covid for all sorts of health problems afflicting those they advised to vaccinate. It is not the vaccine, they say, it is Covid. We tried to protect you with the vaccine, they would always insist. But you got Covid anyway, thanks to the evil antivaxxers, and your problems are due to Covid — that’s their explanation.

We know for certain, though, that the drop in birth rate in Taiwan is NOT due to Covid. Yes, Taiwan is suffering from a terrible COVID pandemic right now (despite being 91% vaccinated), however, Covid in Taiwan only started around April 21 of 2022, and could not impact May birth rates much.

To see what could cause the extreme drop in births, go back 9 months from May 2022, so to September 2021.

Taiwan was a poster child for successful vaccination. 91% of all Taiwanese residents received a vaccine dose. By October 1, 2021, 56% of ALL people of Taiwan received Covid vaccines.

They got a fairly usual mix of “safe and effective” AstraZeneca, Moderna, and Pfizer vaccines.

People of Taiwan got their shots, felt assured that Covid-19 stops with every vaccinated person, and moved on with their lives.

I doubt that the people of Taiwan noticed anything at the end of September. They knew for sure that their vaccines were safe and effective and would not affect their sperm or pregnancies. So they proceeded with family plans just as before, trying to make babies on purpose, or partying and having fun and getting pregnant accidentally, just as people do elsewhere.

Except for 9 months later, they only gave birth to 77% of the number of babies expected.

I hope that the people of Taiwan will start asking their authorities: what is happening to us?

A Glimmer of Hope

If you are like me, and you like babies, children, and grandchildren, you are probably upset by now and are wondering what will happen to all of us. Let me mention a possibility that, although unlikely in my opinion, may make this drop in birth rates temporary.

Covid vaccines are known to “disrupt the menstrual cycle” and lower sperm counts. It is possible that some women, for a period of several months, could not conceive and become pregnant due to these disruptions. Because all Taiwanese women were vaccinated at almost the same time, those disruptions created a precipitous drop in birth rates.

My hope, as someone who likes people, is that this will turn out to be the case. However, in my opinion, we will likely see the opposite, and reductions in birth rates will be permanent. Why? Because vaccinating young people was a crime. It was not a mistake. Let me not explain why, in this article.

Crimes like this are NOT perpetrated to achieve a two-month drop in birth rates. Criminals of such nature who gave young people shots that they did not need, for sinister reasons, go for the jugular. Of course, not all people participating in vaccination campaigns were having such sinister intentions. But it is possible that some persons on top had criminal motives that they did not disclose.

Again, I hope that the preceding paragraph will turn out to be unfounded. I was, and am, against any of that happening, do not support anything that is happening in Taiwan, and I am very worried.

Time will tell.

They Told Us it is Safe

This fact check from Dec 5, 2020 says that the vaccine is definitely safe for pregnancy “because there is no evidence that it is unsafe”. No trial specifically for pregnancy and fertility was conducted. They just lied to us that it is safe — but had no way of knowing.

Subscribe here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/27/2022 - 23:15

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‘A Dire Warning For Democrats’: Over 1 Million Voters Switch To GOP Over The Last Year

‘A Dire Warning For Democrats’: Over 1 Million Voters Switch To GOP Over The Last Year

The Republican Party has been picking up support over…



'A Dire Warning For Democrats': Over 1 Million Voters Switch To GOP Over The Last Year

The Republican Party has been picking up support over the past year, as more than 1 million voters across 43 states switched to the GOP, according to voter registration data analyzed by the Associated Press.

More than 1 million voters across 43 states have switched to the Republican Party over the last year, according to voter registration data analyzed by The Associated Press. The previously unreported number reflects a phenomenon that is playing out in virtually every region of the country — Democratic and Republican states along with cities and small towns — in the period since President Joe Biden replaced former President Donald Trump. -AP

Democrats, meanwhile, picked up just 630,000 new voters in the analysis of 1.7 million voters who had switched affiliations over the last 12 months. The data, which was provided by political data firm L2, used a combination of state voter records and statistical modeling.

"While party switching is not uncommon, the data shows a definite reversal from the period while Trump was in office, when Democrats enjoyed a slight edge in the number of party switchers nationwide," reads the report.

The data points to a red wave brewing ahead of this fall's midterms, according to Axios.

The most damaging aspect of this shift to Democrats? The suburbs.

According to the report, 'well-educated swing voters who turned against Trump's Republican Party in recent years appear to be swinging back."

Over the last year, far more people are switching to the GOP across suburban counties from Denver to Atlanta and Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Republicans also gained ground in counties around medium-size cities such as Harrisburg, Pennsylvania; Raleigh, North Carolina; Augusta, Georgia; and Des Moines, Iowa. -AP

More notables about the report via Axios:

  • The party switches were evident across the board — in red states and blue states, cities and small towns and suburban areas, AP found.
  • Of the nearly 1.7 million voters who changed parties in states with available data over the last year, some two-thirds went to the GOP.
  • "Biden and Democrats are woefully out of touch with the American people, and that's why voters are flocking to the Republican Party in droves," RNC chair Ronna McDaniel told the AP.

Between the lines: One outlier was in Virginia, where Democrats saw an uptick in registered voters.

"It’s more so a rejection of the left than embracing the right," according to 37-year-old Ben Smith of Larimer County, Colorado, who says he reluctantly left the Democratic party over the last year after becoming concerned about his former party's push for mandatory COVID-19 vaccines, as well as the party's inability to tame crime while focusing on racial justice.

AP called it a "dire warning for Democrats" who are already dealing with the macro effects of the economy reflecting in the polls this fall during midterms.

What's to blame?

According to the report, suburban parents grew 'increasingly frustrated' over the prolonged pandemic-related school closures, while the RNC began hosting voter registration events at gas stations in suburban locations within swing states, such as Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania.

"Biden and Democrats are woefully out of touch with the American people, and that’s why voters are flocking to the Republican Party in droves," said RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel. "American suburbs will trend red for cycles to come" thanks to "Biden’s gas hike, the open border crisis, baby formula shortage and rising crime."

Over the last year, nearly every state — even those without high-profile Republican primaries — moved in the same direction as voters by the thousand became Republicans. Only Virginia, which held off-year elections in 2021, saw Democrats notably trending up over the last year. But even there, Democrats were wiped out in last fall’s statewide elections.

In Iowa, Democrats used to hold the advantage in party changers by a 2-to-1 margin. That’s flipped over the last year, with Republicans ahead by a similar amount. The same dramatic shift is playing out in Ohio.

In Florida, Republicans captured 58 percent of party switchers during those last years of the Trump era. Now, over the last year, they command 70 percent. And in Pennsylvania, the Republicans went from 58 to 63 percent of party changers. -AP

To understand more about why disaffected Democrats have left their party (aside from the overwhelming obvious), click here.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/27/2022 - 21:35

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