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Will Bitcoin Go the Way of a Commodity or an Equity?

I went back to my Outlook 2023 written in December 2022, where I begin with:You Can’t Run with the Hare and Hunt with the Hounds. This expression will…



I went back to my Outlook 2023 written in December 2022, where I begin with:

You Can't Run with the Hare and Hunt with the Hounds.

This expression will ultimately summarize the upcoming year.

As the Year of the Tiger loses its roar, the Year of the Rabbit hops into view.

For 2023, one word and two expressions keep coming up:


Trying to fit a square peg into a round hole,

Looking for Inflation in All the Wrong Places

My readers know we have been buyers of dips in oil and gold. And that got us wondering about Bitcoin. In the next-to-last page of the Outlook, we call Bitcoin "The Family's Adolescent".


As the one who is still trying to figure out who it wants to be in relation to the economies domestically and abroad, we love how predictable the chart looks.

A monthly breakdown under $15,950 could lead Bitcoin to lose half its value.

As December 2022 is turning into an inside month, price trading within the trading range of November, a move over $21.500, could catch many bears off guard."

Considering the outperformance versus the SPY in September, despite currently slightly underperforming, what's next for our adolescent? Here are some of the recent headlines about cryptocurrencies, specifically Bitcoin.

  • Prince Filip of Serbia: Bitcoin is an "open secure protocol akin to the internet".
  • Ark Invest Research forecasts $1.48 million bull case for Bitcoin
  • Deadline for the SEC to hear Grayscales' appeal for a spot Bitcoin ETF
  • President of Madiera welcomes Bitcoin
  • Paul Tudor Jones: "Bitcoin should "probably take on a larger percentage of your

We find the 2 most interesting headlines are that of Cathie Wood and PTJ. Both bulls, one with a great track record and one with a horrific one. So, could they both be wrong?

The chart of BTCUSD dissected:

  1. Price sits on the 50-day moving average (blue line).
  2. The Phase is Distribution.
  3. The price is well under the July 6-month calendar range low.
  4. In Leadership, it underperforms the SPY.
  5. In Momentum, it is slightly below the 50-DMA for a teeny bearish divergence to price.

$26,500 is the support to hold to see higher levels. Ideally, a close over 28,000 sets up the bulls the best. With three peak lows -- January 2023, March 2023, and September 2023 -- Bitcoin is making higher lows. However, until momentum improves and BTCUSD begins to outperform the SPY, we are more neutral than bullish or bearish.

We do like Friday the 13th's action, so do not lose track.

This is for educational purposes only. Trading comes with risk.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

If you find it difficult to execute the MarketGauge strategies or would like to explore how we can do it for you, please email Ben Scheibe at

"I grew my money tree and so can you!" - Mish Schneider

Get your copy of Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth and a special bonus here.

Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

Mish and Dale Pinkert discuss the disconnect between news and markets-and how to best invest right now in this video from ForexAnalytix's pre-market show.

In this video from CMC Markets, Mish shares her short-term forecast for USD/JPY and popular commodity instruments ahead of the US PPI announcement and September's Fed meeting minutes, with recent dovish comments from Fed officials suggesting a potential shift in the committee's policies.

Mish joins Business First AM to discuss the market reaction to the war in Gaza in this video.

Mish discusses what's needed for a market bottom on the Financial Sense Newshour podcast with Jim Puplava.

Mish takes over as guest host for David Keller, CMT on the Monday, October 9 edition of StockCharts TV's The Final Bar, where she shares her thoughts in the daily Market Recap during a day of uncertain news.

To quote Al Mendez, "The smartest woman in Business Analysis @marketminute [Mish] impresses Charles with her "deep dive" to interpret the present Market direction." See Mish's appearance on Fox Business' Making Money with Charles Payne here!

Mish covers bonds, small caps, transports and commodities-dues for the next moves in this video from Yahoo! Finance.

In this video from Real Vision, Mish joins Maggie Lake to share what her framework suggests about junk bonds and investment-grade bonds, what she's watching in commodity markets, and how to structure a portfolio to navigate both bull and bear markets.

Mish was interviewed by Kitco News for the article "This Could Be the Last Gasp of the Bond Market Selloff, Which Will be Bullish for Gold Prices", available to read here.

Mish presents a warning in this appearance on BNN Bloomberg's Opening Bell -- before loading up seasonality trades or growth stocks, watch the "inside" sectors of the US economy.

Watch Mish and Nicole Petallides discuss how pros and cons working in tandem, plus why commodities are still a thing, in this video from Schwab.

Coming Up:

October 19: Live coaching

October 20: StockCharts TV's Your Daily Five

October 23: BNN Bloomberg

October 27: Live in-studio with Charles Payne, Fox Business

October 29-31: The Money Show

Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets

ETF Summary

  • S&P 500 (SPY): 435 resistance, 429 support.
  • Russell 2000 (IWM): 177 resistance, 170 KEY support.
  • Dow (DIA): 338 resistance, 332 support.
  • Nasdaq (QQQ): 368 pivotal, 363 support.
  • Regional banks (KRE): 39.80-42.00 range.
  • Semiconductors (SMH): 150 resistance, 143 support.
  • Transportation (IYT): 237 resistance, 225 support.
  • Biotechnology (IBB): 120-125 range.
  • Retail (XRT): 57 key support; if can climb over 61, bullish.

Mish Schneider

Director of Trading Research and Education

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ProShares prepares to launch unique Short Ether Strategy ETF

ProShares’ SETH ETF will start trading soon, following the first Ethereum futures ETFs by about two weeks.
ProShares introduced a trio…



ProShares' SETH ETF will start trading soon, following the first Ethereum futures ETFs by about two weeks.

ProShares introduced a trio of Ethereum futures ETFs in the recent weeks. Presently, the company is gearing up to provide a distinctive offering.

ProShares' Short Ether Strategy ETF (SETH) from the fund group is poised to commence trading shortly, following the debut of the initial Ethereum futures ETFs by about two weeks.

SETH, scheduled for listing on the NYSE Arca exchange, aims to achieve daily investment outcomes that mirror the inverse of the daily S&P CME Ether Futures Index performance, as indicated in a filing made on Friday, Oct. 13.

The fund does not engage in direct shorting of ether (ETH); rather, it seeks to capitalize on potential declines in the asset's value, as stated in the prospectus. On Friday, the price of ETH stood at approximately $1,540, reflecting a decrease of approximately 6% over the past week.

Screenshot of the ProShares SETH filing     Source: SEC

ProShares anticipates that the registration statement for SETH will become effective on Oct. 15 and plans to introduce the fund in early November, as reported by Blockworks.

However, the three existing ProShares ether futures funds — including two that invest in both ether and bitcoin futures contracts — debuted on Oct. 2 alongside similar products by VanEck and Bitwise.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission approved ether futures ETFs two years following the introduction of the initial bitcoin futures ETF, the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO), which entered the market in Oct. 2021.

Related: SEC reportedly won’t appeal court decision on Grayscale Bitcoin ETF

ProShares continued its release of bitcoin futures ETFs with the Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITI) in June 2022. As of now, BITO has accumulated around $850 million in assets, while BITI has approximately $75 million.

In August, Cointelegraph reported that Ether futures ETFs may be approved in October, causing an 11% spike in ETH prices at the time.

Magazine: Bitcoin ETF optimist and Worldcoin skeptic Gracy Chen: Hall of Flame

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SEC reportedly won’t appeal court decision on Grayscale Bitcoin ETF

If true, the SEC will need to review and decide on Grayscale’s spot Bitcoin ETF application. If denied, Grayscale could appeal the decision.



If true, the SEC will need to review and decide on Grayscale’s spot Bitcoin ETF application. If denied, Grayscale could appeal the decision.

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission reportedly has no plans to appeal the recent court decision that favored Grayscale Investments. The ruling requires the SEC to review the firm’s spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) application.

The SEC’s supposed decision not to appeal the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeal’s ruling was highlighted in an Oct. 13 report from Reuters, which cited “a source familiar with the matter.”

Bloomberg analysts also expect the SEC not to appeal to the Supreme Court but emphasized that this doesn’t necessarily mean Grayscale’s application is set to be approved.

If the reports are true, the SEC will need to follow the court’s August order and review Grayscale’s application to change its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a spot Bitcoin ETF.

According to Reuters, the appeals court is expected to issue a mandate specifically outlining how its ruling should be “executed” by the SEC.

Commenting on the developments, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart noted via X that:

“I do not think they will appeal to the Supreme Court either. Dialogue between Grayscale and SEC should begin next week. Hoping for more info on next steps sometime next week or week after?”

Moving forward, Seyffart suggested that it is likely that “we will find out in the next week (or two)” what the deadline is for the SEC to approve or deny Grayscale’s spot BTC ETF application.

If the SEC were to deny the application, Grayscale could then appeal that decision, dragging the process out even longer.

Related: Bitcoin price gets new $25K target as SEC decision day boosts GBTC

As it stands, around seven spot Bitcoin ETF applications have been put before the SEC that are awaiting a decision from the regulator.

In a separate preceding X post on Oct. 13, Seyffart reiterated his view that there is a 90% chance that a spot Bitcoin ETF application will get approved in January 2024, specifically the application from Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest.

Seyffart and Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, also previously suggested that there is a 75% chance that an application will get approved in 2023.

Magazine: Hall of Flame: Crypto lawyer Irina Heaver on death threats, lawsuit predictions

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Coinbase continues push to compel SEC to act on crypto rulemaking petition

Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal has once again called for a mandamus to compel the SEC to respond to the firm’s crypto rulemaking petition.



Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal has once again called for a mandamus to compel the SEC to respond to the firm’s crypto rulemaking petition.

Coinbase has doubled down on its push for a court order compelling the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to act on the firm’s crypto rulemaking petition.

Coinbase wants a mandamus issued within 30 days to compel the SEC to give an official answer on whether it will accept or deny the petition.

The SEC submitted a long-awaited status update on Oct. 12, vaguely stating that “commission staff provided a recommendation” to the SEC over Coinbase’s petition but did not divulge any further details.

In an Oct. 13 post on X (formerly Twitter), Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal slammed the SEC for dragging its heels and called for a mandamus to force the SEC into adequately outlining its intentions.

Grewal also shared Coinbase’s response to the SEC update that it filed with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit.

“The SEC’s unilluminating report is mere bureaucratic pantomime and confirms that nothing short of mandamus will prompt the agency to take its obligations seriously. It took more than a year and an order from this Court to elicit even a staff-level recommendation,” the response reads, adding that:

“The Commission has resolved not to conduct the rulemaking Coinbase requested, and it will exploit every bureaucratic artifice in its arsenal to forestall judicial review so long as the Court allows it.”
Coinbase’s response to the SEC update. Source: Grewal/X

Coinbase initially filed the rulemaking petition in July 2022, requesting the SEC to “propose and adopt rules” to govern the crypto market, including potential rules to clearly outline which digital assets fall under the definition of securities.

After the SEC failed to respond, Coinbase filed a petition for mandamus nine months later, seeking the court to compel the SEC to give a “yes or no” answer.

Related: Coinbase spot trading volume falls by 52% compared to 2022: Report

However, the SEC has fired back multiple times, refuting the need to meet Coinbase’s requirements and asking the court to deny Coinbase’s petition for mandamus.

In mid-June, the SEC asked the court for 120 days to respond to the rulemaking petition. Such a timeline suggests that the agency may have an answer by the end of October or early November.

Magazine: How to protect your crypto in a volatile market — Bitcoin OGs and experts weigh in

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