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Why Storm Ciarán’s winds were so strong

Storm Ciarán unleashed extremely strong and destructive winds in parts of the southern UK and northern France – here’s why.

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4 months ago

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Storm Ciarán made landfall in southern regions of the UK during the evening of November 1, 2023. The UK’s Met Office issued amber weather warnings for November 2 in specific areas in the south of the UK, cautioning about high winds. This amber alert represents the second-highest level in the Met Office’s three-tier system.

Yellow warnings were also in place for both wind and rain, extending over a broader area and timeframe.

Ciarán unleashed extremely strong and destructive winds in some areas. Gusts of up to 102 mph were recorded in Jersey, and there have been reports of an 128 mph wind gust in Brittany on France’s north-west coast. For comparison, the record wind gust in England stands at 122 mph, set in 2022.

But why were Storm Ciarán’s winds so strong? The explanation lies in the fact that Ciarán was not your typical extratropical cyclone (or windstorm); it was an explosively developing one.

An explosive cyclone

One notable characteristic of Storm Ciarán was the extreme depth of its low-pressure centre. The UK Met Office announced that the central surface pressure, when adjusted to the mean sea level value, dropped to 953.3 millibars (mb) – a new record for England and Wales in the month of November.

The rate at which Ciarán’s pressure dropped was also exceptional. In fact, it far exceeded the threshold of approximately 24 mb in 24 hours (with a slight adjustment based on latitude) required to classify a storm as an explosively deepening cyclone “bomb”.

This rapid intensification occurred as Ciarán, initially fuelled by the ascent and condensation of air over warm waters, found itself positioned beneath the front-left side of a particularly intense jet stream. The jet stream, characterised by high winds approximately 6 miles above the Earth’s surface, reached speeds of up to 200 mph on November 1, making it an especially favourable environment for a storm to intensify in.

Why is this important?

One of the primary factors influencing the intensity of surface winds in a storm like Ciarán is the rate of change in surface pressure. On weather charts, you’ll often encounter lines of constant surface pressure, known as isobars. When isobars are closely spaced, they indicate the presence of strong winds.

To illustrate this concept, picture two columns of water, one deeper than the other. If these columns are connected near their bottom ends, water will naturally flow from the deeper column to the shallower one, resulting in a stronger flow when there’s a significant difference in water depth. Similarly, air in our atmosphere tends to move from areas of higher pressure to lower pressure. The greater the difference in pressure, the stronger the associated winds.

Because the Earth is rotating, these winds turn towards the right and generally follow the direction of the isobars rather than being directed towards the low pressure. Bomb cyclones obtain deep low-pressure centres, and the isobars are most tightly packed in the south-west quadrant of the storm, resulting in the strongest “gradient” winds in that region.

In Ciarán’s case, this arc-shaped north-eastward travelling region covered Brittany, the Channel Islands, the far south-west of England and eventually the country’s far south-east.

Storm Ciarán on Thursday November 1 at 06:00. Winds closely follow the direction of the isobars. © [2023] European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), CC BY-NC-SA

Often, these storms also move rapidly. Fast travel speed further contributes to the strength of the surface winds. This was the case for Ciarán, which crossed the North Atlantic in just a couple of days.

Did Ciarán have a sting jet?

During some intense windstorms, there can be an additional airstream known as the “sting jet”. Sting jets originate from specific cloud regions within the cyclone and can generate brief (lasting a few hours) and relatively small (60 miles across) areas of extremely strong winds, which are accompanied by very intense gusts should they reach the ground.

Storms containing sting jets have a distinctive structure, often characterised by rapidly deepening clouds. The evolution of Storm Ciarán was consistent with that structure.

Satellite images before the storm hit revealed narrow bands at the tip of the cloud hooking round the storm centre, the region from which the sting jet descends. However, detailed analysis will be required after the event to confirm whether sting jets were present.

Sting jets do have the potential to worsen the damage caused by storms. But it’s important to note that Ciarán was forecast to unleash strong winds even in the absence of a sting jet.

As a point of reference, Storm Eunice, which gained notoriety in February 2022 for prompting the first ever Met Office red warning for wind in southern England, setting England’s current wind gust record, and damaging the roof of London’s O2 arena, featured a sting jet.

However, by the time the storm arrived London, it had reached a mature stage. And our own research suggests that the damaging winds were the result of a combination of several different airstreams, including a sting jet.

In explosively developing cyclones such as Storm Ciarán, damaging winds can be caused by a number of different airstreams that include, but are not limited to, sting jets.

Suzanne Gray has previously received funding from the Natural Environmental Research Council and AXA Research Fund to work on sting jet storms.

Ambrogio Volonté has received funding from the Natural Environment Research Council and AXA Research Fund to work on sting jet storms.

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Angry Shouting Aside, Here’s What Biden Is Running On

Angry Shouting Aside, Here’s What Biden Is Running On

Last night, Joe Biden gave an extremely dark, threatening, angry State of the Union…

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2 hours ago

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March 8, 2024

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Angry Shouting Aside, Here's What Biden Is Running On

Last night, Joe Biden gave an extremely dark, threatening, angry State of the Union address - in which he insisted that the American economy is doing better than ever, blamed inflation on 'corporate greed,' and warned that Donald Trump poses an existential threat to the republic.

But in between the angry rhetoric, he also laid out his 2024 election platform - for which additional details will be released on March 11, when the White House sends its proposed budget to Congress.

To that end, Goldman Sachs' Alec Phillips and Tim Krupa have summarized the key points:

Taxes

While railing against billionaires (nothing new there), Biden repeated the claim that anyone making under $400,000 per year won't see an increase in their taxes.  He also proposed a 21% corporate minimum tax, up from 15% on book income outlined in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), as well as raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% (which would promptly be passed along to consumers in the form of more inflation). Goldman notes that "Congress is unlikely to consider any of these proposals this year, they would only come into play in a second Biden term, if Democrats also won House and Senate majorities."

Biden also called on Congress to restore the pandemic-era child tax credit.

Immigration

Instead of simply passing a slew of border security Executive Orders like the Trump ones he shredded on day one, Biden repeated the lie that Congress 'needs to act' before he can (translation: send money to Ukraine or the US border will continue to be a sieve).

As immigration comes into even greater focus heading into the election, we continue to expect the Administration to tighten policy (e.g., immigration has surged 20pp the last 7 months to first place with 28% in Gallup’s “most important problem” survey). As such, we estimate the foreign-born contribution to monthly labor force growth will moderate from 110k/month in 2023 to around 70-90k/month in 2024. -GS

Ukraine

Biden, with House Speaker Mike Johnson doing his best impression of a bobble-head, urged Congress to pass additional assistance for Ukraine based entirely on the premise that Russia 'won't stop' there (and would what, trigger article 5 and WW3 no matter what?), despite the fact that Putin explicitly told Tucker Carlson he has no further ambitions, and in fact seeks a settlement.

As Goldman estimates, "While there is still a clear chance that such a deal could come together, for now there is no clear path forward for Ukraine aid in Congress."

China

Biden, forgetting about all the aggressive tariffs, suggested that Trump had been soft on China, and that he will stand up "against China's unfair economic practices" and "for peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait."

Healthcare

Lastly, Biden proposed to expand drug price negotiations to 50 additional drugs each year (an increase from 20 outlined in the IRA), which Goldman said would likely require bipartisan support "even if Democrats controlled Congress and the White House," as such policies would likely be ineligible for the budget "reconciliation" process which has been used in previous years to pass the IRA and other major fiscal party when Congressional margins are just too thin.

So there you have it. With no actual accomplishments to speak of, Biden can only attack Trump, lie, and make empty promises.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 18:00

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United Airlines adds new flights to faraway destinations

The airline said that it has been working hard to "find hidden gem destinations."

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9 hours ago

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March 8, 2024

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Since countries started opening up after the pandemic in 2021 and 2022, airlines have been seeing demand soar not just for major global cities and popular routes but also for farther-away destinations.

Numerous reports, including a recent TripAdvisor survey of trending destinations, showed that there has been a rise in U.S. traveler interest in Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea and Vietnam as well as growing tourism traction in off-the-beaten-path European countries such as Slovenia, Estonia and Montenegro.

Related: 'No more flying for you': Travel agency sounds alarm over risk of 'carbon passports'

As a result, airlines have been looking at their networks to include more faraway destinations as well as smaller cities that are growing increasingly popular with tourists and may not be served by their competitors.

The Philippines has been popular among tourists in recent years.

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United brings back more routes, says it is committed to 'finding hidden gems'

This week, United Airlines  (UAL)  announced that it will be launching a new route from Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) to Morocco's Marrakesh. While it is only the country's fourth-largest city, Marrakesh is a particularly popular place for tourists to seek out the sights and experiences that many associate with the country — colorful souks, gardens with ornate architecture and mosques from the Moorish period.

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"We have consistently been ahead of the curve in finding hidden gem destinations for our customers to explore and remain committed to providing the most unique slate of travel options for their adventures abroad," United's SVP of Global Network Planning Patrick Quayle, said in a press statement.

The new route will launch on Oct. 24 and take place three times a week on a Boeing 767-300ER  (BA)  plane that is equipped with 46 Polaris business class and 22 Premium Plus seats. The plane choice was a way to reach a luxury customer customer looking to start their holiday in Marrakesh in the plane.

Along with the new Morocco route, United is also launching a flight between Houston (IAH) and Colombia's Medellín on Oct. 27 as well as a route between Tokyo and Cebu in the Philippines on July 31 — the latter is known as a "fifth freedom" flight in which the airline flies to the larger hub from the mainland U.S. and then goes on to smaller Asian city popular with tourists after some travelers get off (and others get on) in Tokyo.

United's network expansion includes new 'fifth freedom' flight

In the fall of 2023, United became the first U.S. airline to fly to the Philippines with a new Manila-San Francisco flight. It has expanded its service to Asia from different U.S. cities earlier last year. Cebu has been on its radar amid growing tourist interest in the region known for marine parks, rainforests and Spanish-style architecture.

With the summer coming up, United also announced that it plans to run its current flights to Hong Kong, Seoul, and Portugal's Porto more frequently at different points of the week and reach four weekly flights between Los Angeles and Shanghai by August 29.

"This is your normal, exciting network planning team back in action," Quayle told travel website The Points Guy of the airline's plans for the new routes.

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Walmart launches clever answer to Target’s new membership program

The retail superstore is adding a new feature to its Walmart+ plan — and customers will be happy.

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9 hours ago

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March 8, 2024

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It's just been a few days since Target  (TGT)  launched its new Target Circle 360 paid membership plan. 

The plan offers free and fast shipping on many products to customers, initially for $49 a year and then $99 after the initial promotional signup period. It promises to be a success, since many Target customers are loyal to the brand and will go out of their way to shop at one instead of at its two larger peers, Walmart and Amazon.

Related: Walmart makes a major price cut that will delight customers

And stop us if this sounds familiar: Target will rely on its more than 2,000 stores to act as fulfillment hubs. 

This model is a proven winner; Walmart also uses its more than 4,600 stores as fulfillment and shipping locations to get orders to customers as soon as possible.

Sometimes, this means shipping goods from the nearest warehouse. But if a desired product is in-store and closer to a customer, it reduces miles on the road and delivery time. It's a kind of logistical magic that makes any efficiency lover's (or retail nerd's) heart go pitter patter. 

Walmart rolls out answer to Target's new membership tier

Walmart has certainly had more time than Target to develop and work out the kinks in Walmart+. It first launched the paid membership in 2020 during the height of the pandemic, when many shoppers sheltered at home but still required many staples they might ordinarily pick up at a Walmart, like cleaning supplies, personal-care products, pantry goods and, of course, toilet paper. 

It also undercut Amazon  (AMZN)  Prime, which costs customers $139 a year for free and fast shipping (plus several other benefits including access to its streaming service, Amazon Prime Video). 

Walmart+ costs $98 a year, which also gets you free and speedy delivery, plus access to a Paramount+ streaming subscription, fuel savings, and more. 

An employee at a Merida, Mexico, Walmart. (Photo by Jeffrey Greenberg/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

Jeff Greenberg/Getty Images

If that's not enough to tempt you, however, Walmart+ just added a new benefit to its membership program, ostensibly to compete directly with something Target now has: ultrafast delivery. 

Target Circle 360 particularly attracts customers with free same-day delivery for select orders over $35 and as little as one-hour delivery on select items. Target executes this through its Shipt subsidiary.

We've seen this lightning-fast delivery speed only in snippets from Amazon, the king of delivery efficiency. Who better to take on Target, though, than Walmart, which is using a similar store-as-fulfillment-center model? 

"Walmart is stepping up to save our customers even more time with our latest delivery offering: Express On-Demand Early Morning Delivery," Walmart said in a statement, just a day after Target Circle 360 launched. "Starting at 6 a.m., earlier than ever before, customers can enjoy the convenience of On-Demand delivery."

Walmart  (WMT)  clearly sees consumers' desire for near-instant delivery, which obviously saves time and trips to the store. Rather than waiting a day for your order to show up, it might be on your doorstep when you wake up. 

Consumers also tend to spend more money when they shop online, and they remain stickier as paying annual members. So, to a growing number of retail giants, almost instant gratification like this seems like something worth striving for.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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