Government
Why so sad?
Over the past few years, consumer sentiment has increasingly run far below the level predicted by models based on economic data. The Economist illustrates…

Over the past few years, consumer sentiment has increasingly run far below the level predicted by models based on economic data. The Economist illustrates the issue with a graph:
The Economist attributes the gloomy outlook to the lingering effects of Covid. I suspect the actual explanation is growing political polarization. Consider the growing partisan gap in how voters evaluate the economy:
Back in the 1990s, there wasn’t much partisan difference in how voters evaluated the condition of the economy. This was before the public had come to view people with different points of view as the enemy. I suspect that the responses to polls were more honest back then. After 9/11, opinion became more polarized. After Trump was elected, polarization increased even further. Today, voters in the two major parties live in completely separate worlds, consuming media that is tailored to fit their prejudices. Thus it’s not surprising that they have radically divergent views of the world.
Voters seem to rate the economy much more highly when their preferred candidate is in power, perhaps partly due to the mistaken assumption that presidents somehow control inflation and the business cycle. (A myth that is encouraged by our media.)
Until 2021, the biases of the two parties roughly offset, leaving the overall rating roughly equal to the rating one would expect based solely on the economic data. This changed after Joe Biden became president. Unlike with President Obama (who inherited a weak economy), Democratic voters are only lukewarm on the current president.
In contrast, Republican voters have an extremely negative view of President Biden. With only lukewarm sentiment from Democrats, there is nothing to offset the extremely low economic rating of Republicans. This leaves the overall rating for the economy far below the level you’d expect with rising real wages, 3.8% unemployment, and 3.7% inflation. At one point in 2022, consumer sentiment fell below the lowest reading of the early 1980s, when the economy was in far worse shape.
I don’t believe these consumer sentiment figures represent the actual views of the public. Consumer spending is still very strong, an indication that people feel pretty good about the economy. Actions speak louder than words. I suspect the low reported sentiment is mostly a reflection of GOP voters expressing anger at the current political situation.
My own view is that recent economic policy (since 2017) is quite bad, but the negative effects will show up in future years, at a point where we will need to confront the effects of an out of control federal budget. If people think the current economy is bad, wait until they see what’s coming down the road in a few years!
PS. Note to commenters: If you think the economic model is wrong, you need to explain why it fit the data for the 40-year period from 1980 to 2020.
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Fighting the Surveillance State Begins with the Individual
It’s a well-known fact at this point that in the United States and most of the so-called free countries that there is a robust surveillance state in…

Government
Forget Ron DeSantis: Walt Disney has a much bigger problem
The company’s political woes are a sideshow to the one key issue Bob Iger has to solve.

Walt Disney has a massive, but solvable, problem.
The company's current skirmishes with Florida Gov. DeSantis get a lot of headlines, but they're not having a major impact on the company's bottom line.
Related: What the Bud Light boycott means for Disney, Target, and Starbucks
DeSantis has made Walt Disney (DIS) - Get Free Report a target in what he calls his war on woke, an effort to win right-wing support as he tries to secure the Republican Party nomination for president.
That effort has generated plenty of press and multiple lawsuits tied to the governor's takeover of the former Reedy Creek Improvement District, Disney's legislated self-governance operation. But it has not hurt revenue at the company's massive Florida theme-park complex.
Disney Chief Executive Bob Iger addressed the matter during the company's third-quarter-earnings call, without directly mentioning DeSantis.
"Walt Disney World is still performing well above precovid levels: 21% higher in revenue and 29% higher in operating income compared to fiscal 2019," he said.
And "following a number of recent changes we've implemented, we continue to see positive guest-experience ratings in our theme parks, including Walt Disney World, and positive indicators for guests looking to book future visits."
The theme parks are not Disney's problem. The death of the movie business is, however, a hurdle that Iger has yet to show that the company has a plan to clear.
Image source: Walt Disney
Disney needs a plan to monetize content
In 2019 Walt Disney drew in more $11 billion in global box office, or $13 billion when you add in the former Fox properties it also owns. In that year seven Mouse House films crossed the billion-dollar threshold in theaters, according to data from Box Office Mojo.
This year, the company will struggle to reach half that and it has no billion-dollar films, with "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" closing its theatrical run at $845 million globally.
(That's actually good for third place this year, as only "Barbie" and "The Super Mario Bros. Movie" have broken the billion-dollar mark and they may be the only two films to do that this year.)
In the precovid world Disney could release two Pixar movies, three Marvel films, a live-action remake of an animated classic, and maybe one other film that each would be nearly guaranteed to earn $1 billion at the box office.
That's simply not how the movie business works anymore. While theaters may remain part of Disney's plan to monetize its content, the past isn't coming back. Theaters may remain a piece of the movie-release puzzle, but 2023 isn't an anomaly or a bad release schedule.
Consumers have big TVs at home and they're more than happy to watch most films on them.
Disney owns the IP but charges too little
People aren't less interested in Marvel and Star Wars; they're just getting their fix from Disney+ at an absurdly low price.
Over the past couple of months through the next few weeks, I will have watched about seven hours of premium Star Wars content and five hours of top-tier Marvel content with "Ahsoka" and "Loki" respectively.
Before the covid pandemic, I gladly would have paid theater prices for each movie in those respective universes. Now, I have consumed about six movies worth of premium content for less than the price of two movie tickets.
By making its premium content television shows available on a service that people can buy for $7.99 a month Disney has devalued its most valuable asset, its intellectual property.
Consumers have shown that they will pay the $10 to $15 cost of a movie ticket to see what happens next in the Marvel Cinematic Universe or the Star Wars galaxy. But the company has offered top-tier content from those franchises at a lower price.
Iger needs to find a way to replace billions of dollars in lost box office, but charging less for the company's content makes no sense.
Now, some fans likely won't pay triple the price for Disney+. But if it were to bundle a direct-to-consumer ESPN along with content that currently gets released to movie theaters, Disney might create a package that it can price in a way that reflects the value of its IP.
Consumers want Disney's content and they will likely pay more for it. Iger simply has to find a way to make that happen.
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Stock Market Today: Stocks turn higher as Treasury yields retreat; big tech earnings up next
A pullback in Treasury yields has stocks moving higher Monday heading into a busy earnings week and a key 2-year bond auction later on Tuesday.

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