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What’s the Deal with Bond Yields?

What’s the reason for the big decline in stocks of late? While a lot of pundits have offered explanations such as the rising dollar, recession fears,…

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What’s the reason for the big decline in stocks of late?

While a lot of pundits have offered explanations such as the rising dollar, recession fears, high oil prices and “higher-for-longer” monetary policy, the real reason is simple… rising Treasury bond yields.

And here, I am not just talking about a modest rise. Rather, bond yields are now at their highest levels in 16 years, and we could soon be approaching a benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield with a “5” handle — ouch!

Yet, a critical question here remains, and that is… Why are bond yields still rising?

The answer is neither simple nor obvious, which is why a thoughtful treatment of this issue is something required at this juncture. And to provide just such as treatment, I am going to show you what we wrote today in the daily market briefing, Eagle Eye Opener.

The Eagle Eye Opener is a collaboration between myself and my “secret market insider,” a man who provides actionable intelligence to the biggest Wall Street brokerage firms at a very high cost — intelligence of the sort you are about to read here, with my compliments.

So, again, why are yields rising? Here’s what we wrote this morning…

The rise in Treasury yields once again hit stocks as the 10-year yield rose through 4.70% for the first time since April 2007, and that continued move higher weighed on stocks. For reference, the 10-year yield was 4.18% just one month ago, and the rise in yields has gained steam lately and that is pressuring stocks.

But as always in markets, the key question to ask is: Why are yields rising?

There are three typical causes of higher yields: Rising inflation expectations, surging growth expectations and fears of a hawkish Fed. I want to investigate each of these to see if they are behind this acceleration higher in yields.

Potential Cause 1: Rising inflation expectations. Inflation expectations can drive long-term Treasury yields. When inflation expectations are rising sharply, that can push yields on longer-dated Treasuries higher as investors demand more long-term interest to offset potentially longer-term inflation. Inflation expectations rising sharply? No, they are not.

The five-year TIPS/Treasuries inflation breakevens have moved up over the past month, but barely so as they’ve risen from 2.17% on Sept. 1 to 2.22% as of Sept. 29. The recent high was 2.30% a few weeks ago, but these breakevens are well off the 3.57% peak in March 2022. Is inflation responsible for surging yields? No. Inflation expectations have not materially changed and are not fueling this rise in yields.

Potential Cause 2: Surging economic growth. Growth is the other factor that can influence longer-term Treasury yields, as higher growth can mean more inflation and investors demand higher longer-term yields to offset that risk. Point being, higher growth = higher yields. Are growth expectations accelerating? No, not meaningfully.

Looking at the Atlanta Fed’s GDP now, they are anticipating a sharp increase in gross domestic product (GDP) from 2.10% in Q2 to the current estimate of 4.9% for Q3. That’s a definite increase. But that growth expectation has been steadily declining from a high of just under 6% quarterly growth, so it’s not like growth expectations have spiked higher recently. Meanwhile, Wall Street analysts’ GDP estimates have risen to just under 3% recently, but that’s not the type of growth that would justify a 70-bps increase in the 10-year yield. Is growth responsible for surging yields? No. Growth expectations have risen from Q2, but that hasn’t happened recently and growth isn’t strong enough to justify this type of move higher in yields. 

Source: StockCharts.com

Potential Cause 3: Hawkish Fed expectations. If the market truly believes the Fed will be “higher for longer,” that could push both short- and long-term yields higher. So, are Fed expectations getting materially more hawkish? No, not substantially so.

According to fed fund futures, there is currently a 53.6% probability the Fed does not hike rates between now and year-end. A month ago, the probability was 51.9% (so no change). Looking towards 2024, there has been a shift in market expectations. Currently, the market expects between 50-75 basis points of rate cuts from the Fed in 2024. A month ago, the market expected between 100-125 basis points of cuts in 2024. That’s a 50-basis-point change in expectations. Are Fed expectations responsible for rising yields? Partially. The market starting to believe the Fed will stay higher for longer has likely contributed to the yield rally, but it can’t account for the recent acceleration or size.

If the “usual suspects” aren’t doing it, what is? First, sentiment and speculation. CBOT U.S. Treasury short positions are just off the spike highs of the year, and we can tell by the reaction in bonds to “second tier” economic data and Fed/important financial people speak. Point being, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said it’s possible that Fed funds goes to 7% (a lot is possible) while some Fed officials have called for multiple additional Fed rate hikes (but the median dots still show just one between now and year-end, and that’s barely so). Point being, there’s clear downward momentum in Treasuries, and just like momentum can push stocks higher or lower than fundamentals justify, so too can it happen in bonds, and sentiment and momentum are major contributors to this past month’s drop in bonds.

Second, U.S. governmental dysfunction matters. For those of a certain age, this will ring a bell: It looks like the “bond vigilantes” have returned (at least in part). Bond vigilantes was a classic Wall Street term for bond investors who would sell Treasuries and send yields higher to voice disapproval over U.S. fiscal policy. They were popular and prevalent in the 1970s, ’80s and early ’90s, but were considered “extinct” by some on Wall Street after they failed to appear over the past 20 years. Well, they’re back!

Dysfunction in Congress is starting to matter, because markets want the government to address the long-term fiscal path of the country. To be clear, this isn’t a big enough reason to push Treasuries lower/yields higher by itself, but combine it with hawkish Fed fears and momentum, and we’ve got ourselves a solid drop in Treasuries, and that is why we are seeing bonds drop and yields spike.

What makes it stop? Disappointing economic data that reminds investors a growth slowdown is still possible. As we’ve covered, none of the long-term drivers of yields have changed much. Neither growth nor inflation are surging. That’s an important positive, and it strongly implies this spike in yields will be temporary because growth and inflation determine longer-term yields, regardless of what we’re seeing now.

That means for this spike in yields to stop, we need to see economic data that underwhelms and makes investors think a slowdown could occur. And given how oversold the 10-year Treasury is right now, any sort of disappointing economic data could easily cause a 20-basis-points decline in yields, if not more. Until then, momentum and general anxiety about the Fed and U.S. fiscal policy will push yields higher, and until they stop rising, we can expect continued volatile stock prices.

If you would like to get this kind of deep analysis on the economy, stocks, bonds and anything that makes the market move, each trading day 8 a.m. Eastern time, then I invite you to check out my Eagle Eye Opener, right now. I suspect it will be the best decision you make today!

***************************************************************

My Favorite Buffett Wisdom

“The stock market is a device to transfer money from the impatient to the patient.”

–Warren Buffett

The virtue of patience isn’t stressed enough when it comes to money. But think about it. Aren’t some of your biggest investing successes the ones that you’ve owned for a very long time? Sure, we can trade stocks and options to take advantage of tactical trends; however, when it comes to wealth building, there is no substitute for patience.

Wisdom about money, investing and life can be found anywhere. If you have a good quote that you’d like me to share with your fellow readers, send it to me, along with any comments, questions and suggestions you have about my newsletters, seminars or anything else. Click here to ask Jim.

In the name of the best within us,

Jim Woods

The post What’s the Deal with Bond Yields? appeared first on Stock Investor.

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Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super…

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Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super Tuesday primaries have got it right. Barring cataclysmic changes, Donald Trump and Joe Biden will be the Republican and Democratic nominees for president in 2024.

(Left) President Joe Biden delivers remarks on canceling student debt at Culver City Julian Dixon Library in Culver City, Calif., on Feb. 21, 2024. (Right) Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump stands on stage during a campaign event at Big League Dreams Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nev., on Jan. 27, 2024. (Mario Tama/Getty Images; David Becker/Getty Images)

With Nikki Haley’s withdrawal, there will be no more significantly contested primaries or caucuses—the earliest both parties’ races have been over since something like the current primary-dominated system was put in place in 1972.

The primary results have spotlighted some of both nominees’ weaknesses.

Donald Trump lost high-income, high-educated constituencies, including the entire metro area—aka the Swamp. Many but by no means all Haley votes there were cast by Biden Democrats. Mr. Trump can’t afford to lose too many of the others in target states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Majorities and large minorities of voters in overwhelmingly Latino counties in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley and some in Houston voted against Joe Biden, and even more against Senate nominee Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas).

Returns from Hispanic precincts in New Hampshire and Massachusetts show the same thing. Mr. Biden can’t afford to lose too many Latino votes in target states like Arizona and Georgia.

When Mr. Trump rode down that escalator in 2015, commentators assumed he’d repel Latinos. Instead, Latino voters nationally, and especially the closest eyewitnesses of Biden’s open-border policy, have been trending heavily Republican.

High-income liberal Democrats may sport lawn signs proclaiming, “In this house, we believe ... no human is illegal.” The logical consequence of that belief is an open border. But modest-income folks in border counties know that flows of illegal immigrants result in disorder, disease, and crime.

There is plenty of impatience with increased disorder in election returns below the presidential level. Consider Los Angeles County, America’s largest county, with nearly 10 million people, more people than 40 of the 50 states. It voted 71 percent for Mr. Biden in 2020.

Current returns show county District Attorney George Gascon winning only 21 percent of the vote in the nonpartisan primary. He’ll apparently face Republican Nathan Hochman, a critic of his liberal policies, in November.

Gascon, elected after the May 2020 death of counterfeit-passing suspect George Floyd in Minneapolis, is one of many county prosecutors supported by billionaire George Soros. His policies include not charging juveniles as adults, not seeking higher penalties for gang membership or use of firearms, and bringing fewer misdemeanor cases.

The predictable result has been increased car thefts, burglaries, and personal robberies. Some 120 assistant district attorneys have left the office, and there’s a backlog of 10,000 unprosecuted cases.

More than a dozen other Soros-backed and similarly liberal prosecutors have faced strong opposition or have left office.

St. Louis prosecutor Kim Gardner resigned last May amid lawsuits seeking her removal, Milwaukee’s John Chisholm retired in January, and Baltimore’s Marilyn Mosby was defeated in July 2022 and convicted of perjury in September 2023. Last November, Loudoun County, Virginia, voters (62 percent Biden) ousted liberal Buta Biberaj, who declined to prosecute a transgender student for assault, and in June 2022 voters in San Francisco (85 percent Biden) recalled famed radical Chesa Boudin.

Similarly, this Tuesday, voters in San Francisco passed ballot measures strengthening police powers and requiring treatment of drug-addicted welfare recipients.

In retrospect, it appears the Floyd video, appearing after three months of COVID-19 confinement, sparked a frenzied, even crazed reaction, especially among the highly educated and articulate. One fatal incident was seen as proof that America’s “systemic racism” was worse than ever and that police forces should be defunded and perhaps abolished.

2020 was “the year America went crazy,” I wrote in January 2021, a year in which police funding was actually cut by Democrats in New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Denver. A year in which young New York Times (NYT) staffers claimed they were endangered by the publication of Sen. Tom Cotton’s (R-Ark.) opinion article advocating calling in military forces if necessary to stop rioting, as had been done in Detroit in 1967 and Los Angeles in 1992. A craven NYT publisher even fired the editorial page editor for running the article.

Evidence of visible and tangible discontent with increasing violence and its consequences—barren and locked shelves in Manhattan chain drugstores, skyrocketing carjackings in Washington, D.C.—is as unmistakable in polls and election results as it is in daily life in large metropolitan areas. Maybe 2024 will turn out to be the year even liberal America stopped acting crazy.

Chaos and disorder work against incumbents, as they did in 1968 when Democrats saw their party’s popular vote fall from 61 percent to 43 percent.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 23:20

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Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The…

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Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) reviewed no data when deciding in 2023 to keep its COVID-19 vaccine mandate in place.

Doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in Washington in a file image. (Jacquelyn Martin/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

VA Secretary Denis McDonough said on May 1, 2023, that the end of many other federal mandates “will not impact current policies at the Department of Veterans Affairs.”

He said the mandate was remaining for VA health care personnel “to ensure the safety of veterans and our colleagues.”

Mr. McDonough did not cite any studies or other data. A VA spokesperson declined to provide any data that was reviewed when deciding not to rescind the mandate. The Epoch Times submitted a Freedom of Information Act for “all documents outlining which data was relied upon when establishing the mandate when deciding to keep the mandate in place.”

The agency searched for such data and did not find any.

The VA does not even attempt to justify its policies with science, because it can’t,” Leslie Manookian, president and founder of the Health Freedom Defense Fund, told The Epoch Times.

“The VA just trusts that the process and cost of challenging its unfounded policies is so onerous, most people are dissuaded from even trying,” she added.

The VA’s mandate remains in place to this day.

The VA’s website claims that vaccines “help protect you from getting severe illness” and “offer good protection against most COVID-19 variants,” pointing in part to observational data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that estimate the vaccines provide poor protection against symptomatic infection and transient shielding against hospitalization.

There have also been increasing concerns among outside scientists about confirmed side effects like heart inflammation—the VA hid a safety signal it detected for the inflammation—and possible side effects such as tinnitus, which shift the benefit-risk calculus.

President Joe Biden imposed a slate of COVID-19 vaccine mandates in 2021. The VA was the first federal agency to implement a mandate.

President Biden rescinded the mandates in May 2023, citing a drop in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. His administration maintains the choice to require vaccines was the right one and saved lives.

“Our administration’s vaccination requirements helped ensure the safety of workers in critical workforces including those in the healthcare and education sectors, protecting themselves and the populations they serve, and strengthening their ability to provide services without disruptions to operations,” the White House said.

Some experts said requiring vaccination meant many younger people were forced to get a vaccine despite the risks potentially outweighing the benefits, leaving fewer doses for older adults.

By mandating the vaccines to younger people and those with natural immunity from having had COVID, older people in the U.S. and other countries did not have access to them, and many people might have died because of that,” Martin Kulldorff, a professor of medicine on leave from Harvard Medical School, told The Epoch Times previously.

The VA was one of just a handful of agencies to keep its mandate in place following the removal of many federal mandates.

“At this time, the vaccine requirement will remain in effect for VA health care personnel, including VA psychologists, pharmacists, social workers, nursing assistants, physical therapists, respiratory therapists, peer specialists, medical support assistants, engineers, housekeepers, and other clinical, administrative, and infrastructure support employees,” Mr. McDonough wrote to VA employees at the time.

This also includes VA volunteers and contractors. Effectively, this means that any Veterans Health Administration (VHA) employee, volunteer, or contractor who works in VHA facilities, visits VHA facilities, or provides direct care to those we serve will still be subject to the vaccine requirement at this time,” he said. “We continue to monitor and discuss this requirement, and we will provide more information about the vaccination requirements for VA health care employees soon. As always, we will process requests for vaccination exceptions in accordance with applicable laws, regulations, and policies.”

The version of the shots cleared in the fall of 2022, and available through the fall of 2023, did not have any clinical trial data supporting them.

A new version was approved in the fall of 2023 because there were indications that the shots not only offered temporary protection but also that the level of protection was lower than what was observed during earlier stages of the pandemic.

Ms. Manookian, whose group has challenged several of the federal mandates, said that the mandate “illustrates the dangers of the administrative state and how these federal agencies have become a law unto themselves.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 22:10

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate…

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate iron levels in their blood due to a COVID-19 infection could be at greater risk of long COVID.

(Shutterstock)

A new study indicates that problems with iron levels in the bloodstream likely trigger chronic inflammation and other conditions associated with the post-COVID phenomenon. The findings, published on March 1 in Nature Immunology, could offer new ways to treat or prevent the condition.

Long COVID Patients Have Low Iron Levels

Researchers at the University of Cambridge pinpointed low iron as a potential link to long-COVID symptoms thanks to a study they initiated shortly after the start of the pandemic. They recruited people who tested positive for the virus to provide blood samples for analysis over a year, which allowed the researchers to look for post-infection changes in the blood. The researchers looked at 214 samples and found that 45 percent of patients reported symptoms of long COVID that lasted between three and 10 months.

In analyzing the blood samples, the research team noticed that people experiencing long COVID had low iron levels, contributing to anemia and low red blood cell production, just two weeks after they were diagnosed with COVID-19. This was true for patients regardless of age, sex, or the initial severity of their infection.

According to one of the study co-authors, the removal of iron from the bloodstream is a natural process and defense mechanism of the body.

But it can jeopardize a person’s recovery.

When the body has an infection, it responds by removing iron from the bloodstream. This protects us from potentially lethal bacteria that capture the iron in the bloodstream and grow rapidly. It’s an evolutionary response that redistributes iron in the body, and the blood plasma becomes an iron desert,” University of Oxford professor Hal Drakesmith said in a press release. “However, if this goes on for a long time, there is less iron for red blood cells, so oxygen is transported less efficiently affecting metabolism and energy production, and for white blood cells, which need iron to work properly. The protective mechanism ends up becoming a problem.”

The research team believes that consistently low iron levels could explain why individuals with long COVID continue to experience fatigue and difficulty exercising. As such, the researchers suggested iron supplementation to help regulate and prevent the often debilitating symptoms associated with long COVID.

It isn’t necessarily the case that individuals don’t have enough iron in their body, it’s just that it’s trapped in the wrong place,” Aimee Hanson, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Cambridge who worked on the study, said in the press release. “What we need is a way to remobilize the iron and pull it back into the bloodstream, where it becomes more useful to the red blood cells.”

The research team pointed out that iron supplementation isn’t always straightforward. Achieving the right level of iron varies from person to person. Too much iron can cause stomach issues, ranging from constipation, nausea, and abdominal pain to gastritis and gastric lesions.

1 in 5 Still Affected by Long COVID

COVID-19 has affected nearly 40 percent of Americans, with one in five of those still suffering from symptoms of long COVID, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Long COVID is marked by health issues that continue at least four weeks after an individual was initially diagnosed with COVID-19. Symptoms can last for days, weeks, months, or years and may include fatigue, cough or chest pain, headache, brain fog, depression or anxiety, digestive issues, and joint or muscle pain.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 12:50

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