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What is the Greatest Threat to Your Investment Today? No, It’s Not the Government!

“Nobody is more bearish than a sold-out bull.” — Old Wall Street saying “I hate to be wrong. But I hate more to stay wrong.” — Paul Samuelson I appeared last week on the Tom Woods Show to talk about something that has me deeply concerned….

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“Nobody is more bearish than a sold-out bull.” — Old Wall Street saying

“I hate to be wrong. But I hate more to stay wrong.” — Paul Samuelson

I appeared last week on the Tom Woods Show to talk about something that has me deeply concerned. It is what academics call “loss aversion” — the fear of losing money. It’s a problem that all investors face, whether bullish or bearish.

Some investors are worried so much about losing money in the stock market that they become “permabears” and get out of the market completely. They live in mortal fear that the market is about to crash at any time and are vulnerable to prophets of doom who are predicting Apocalypse around the corner.

You can click here to listen to my interview with Tom Woods.

It is natural for investors to worry about losing positions. Recently, a subscriber came up to me at an investment conference and asked me about one of my recommendations that had lost money.

I told the investor to be patient and it would turn around. I then asked him, “Have you invested in any other stocks that I recommend?”

He said that all my other recommendations had made money for him — a lot of money.

And, yet, he was most concerned about the one stock that has decreased in value.

Beware of the Permabears

What is the greatest threat to your investments today? Normally, I tell subscribers that it’s the government. Washington can do a lot of harm to your investments via inflation, taxation and regulations.

But there’s even a greater risk out there — following bad investment advice from the prophets of doom and gloom.

These are the gold bugs and the majority of Austrian economists.

Why are Austrian Economists Doom-and-Gloomers?

Why are Austrian economists almost all pessimistic about the economy and the stock market?

I address this question in my book “A Viennese Waltz Down Wall Street: Austrian Economics for Investors.”

As my loyal subscribers know, I’m a big fan of Austrian economics, and I have written whole books on the subject, including my magnum opus, “The Structure of Production,” and “Vienna and Chicago, Friends or Foes?”

The title of my book “A Viennese Waltz Down Wall Street” is a play on Burt Malkiel’s classic work, “A Random Walk Down Wall Street.” I argue that the action of the stock market is not random, nor is it like a drunken sailor, whose next step is unpredictable.

To me, the stock market is like a waltz, with certain rules and patterns to follow, but still allows the freedom within those rules to move in a direction you desire. Sometimes it’s a slow waltz, like the Tennessee waltz, and other times it’s fast and exhausting like the Viennese waltz!

I learned this concept from the great Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises, who argued that all action is “purposeful human action.” Behind every change in a stock price are the rational buy and sell decisions of human beings.

I have individual chapters and applications for each of the Austrian economists: Carl Menger on the importance of marginal pricing… Eugen Bohm-Bawerk on the value of saving and investing… Friedrich Weiser on the “great man” theory… Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek on the Austrian theory of the business cycle…

My Viennese Waltz book seeks to answer:

  • Why the “Austrian Indicator” (inverted yield curve) does a better job of anticipating recessions and market tops. Short-term rates are still low, and we have a positive yield curve, so I don’t see a crash happening any time soon.
  • Why gold and silver have become superior inflation hedges since President Nixon closed the gold window in 1971. Gold and silver are moving back up, finally!
  • How to distinguish between genuine prosperity and artificial prosperity. We have both going on now, with new technologies representing genuine prosperity, along with easy money and wasteful government spending as artificial prosperity.
  • Are we headed for another stock market crash? Will the dollar collapse? Not until interest rates rise sharply.
  • Where is the next asset bubble? It’s almost everywhere right now — in tech stocks, bonds, real estate and Bitcoin.
  • What are the dangers of the “gold bug syndrome”?

The last question concerns me the most, and it is the source of the “fatal flaw” — the tendency to be pessimistic and negative when the markets are optimistic and bullish (most of the time).

Austrian financial advisors know that Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek were pessimists. They both predicted the stock market crash in 1929, and were pessimists throughout the 20th century, having lived through two world wars and the Great Depression.

But they were stigmatized by these difficult times that they failed to see the strong recovery in the markets; the bulls were the big winners of Wall Street during the 20th century and into the 21st century. In fact, U.S. stocks outperformed all foreign markets.

Rich Dad’s Prophecy Fails Again

Robert Kiyosaki, author of “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” has been predicting “the biggest crash in world history” since 2002, when he came out with a book entitled, “Rich Dad Prophecy.” He has repeated this same forecast in 2015 and 2021, only to be proven wrong time and time again. Just last month, he said his prophecy would come true.

I guess he hasn’t read my “Maxims of Wall Street,” which quotes John Maynard Keynes: “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” (p. 32, see www.skousenbooks.com).

He should also ask, “When I’m wrong, what am I missing?”

Kiyosaki has rightly warned that the Federal Reserve has overstimulated markets and devalued the dollar. He’s advised investors to prepare for the downturn by stocking up on precious metals and cryptocurrencies. It’s been a good call on these inflation hedges, even if he’s been wrong about an imminent stock market crash.

Good Financial Advisors Profit from the Inflationary Boom and Protect Themselves from the Bear Markets and Recession

There are two sides to the business cycle, so why not play them both? That’s my approach. The fatal error of most Austrian economists is that they get out of the market too easily, thinking that the inflationary boom can’t last for long and must turn into a bust.

As a result, they miss out on huge opportunities to make money.

Inflationary booms last much longer than the gold bugs expect, sometimes years, like 2003-2007, or 2009-2021, or longer.

And when the deflationary bust happens, it’s fast and furious. As they say on Wall Street, “the stock market takes the stairs up (the bull market) and the elevator down (bear markets).”

Or as Nicholas Vardy puts it, “The bull walks up the stairs. The bear jumps out the window.” (Both quotes are on p. 99 of “Maxims”).

I’m one of the few Austrian economists who takes full advantage of the bull market (I’m still 100% invested) but protects himself when the bear market finally appears.

How to Profit from Austrian Economics

If you want to join me and make money in both bull and bear markets, I urge you to go to www.skousenbooks.com and buy a copy of “A Viennese Waltz Down Wall Street: Austrian Economics for Investors.” It’s a 256-page book that will tell you all you need to know about Austrian economics and finance.

See especially chapter 6 on the Austrian theory of the business cycle, pp. 37-60.

And be sure to check out the photo of Jo Ann and me dancing the Viennese Waltz in the front of the book!

The price is only $20 each, and I autograph each copy and mail it right away. It makes an excellent gift book during the holidays.

This Two-Day Conference Will Sell Out Soon

EconoSummit, April 2-3, 2022, Ahern Hotel, Las Vegas: Limited to 300 attendees, this private, two-day financial/economic conference has already sold 101 tickets. Sponsored by the Investment Club of America, the price is only $199 per person, and that includes a Saturday night dinner! I’ll be speaking on “Creative Disruption: How I Use Austrian Business Cycle (ABC) Theory to Profit from New Trends and the Boom-Bust Economy.”

Other speakers include Jim Woods, co-editor of Fast Money AlertEric Fleischman, M.D., advisor to the Hollywood stars on anti-aging and preventative medicine (a must-see), Ira Victor on personal and financial privacy in an age of big government and big business, attorney Josh Effron on your First Amendment rights and Jo Ann Skousen on the all-important cultural question: “Are We China?” To register, go to www.econosummit.com.

Good investing, AEIOU,

Mark Skousen

You Nailed It!

Aaron Rodgers, America’s #1 Quarterback and Hero

Aaron Rodgers, the long-time quarterback for the Green Bay Packers, should be congratulated for defying the government and pushing back on the National Football League’s political agenda.

After consulting with his medical advisors, he has chosen not to take any of the COVID-19 vaccines, contrary to the demands of the Biden administration and the NFL.

Rodgers is in a unique position to “Just Say No” to this drug. He is the reigning Most Valuable Player in the NFL, having won this award three times. He has a Super Bowl ring from 2010.

For skirting the NFL’s coronavirus protocols, Rodgers was fined $14,650 by the league for attending a Halloween party (a breach of protocol for unvaccinated players), and the Packers were slapped with a $300,000 fine, as well.

Fortunately, Rodgers can afford it. He recently had COVID-19 but has recovered and is expected to play on Sunday.

What I like about Rodgers is that he’s more than just a jock. He is a knowledgeable and well-educated citizen. He was a contestant on Celebrity Jeopardy several years ago with the late host Alex Trebek and won the contest against Kevin O’Leary of the “Shark Tank” television show. Rodgers donated his award of $50,000 to a charity.

Mandates are un-American. We should have a choice when it comes to what we inject into our bodies. We shouldn’t be treated like children.

I salute Aaron Rodgers and other citizens who have taken this courageous stand against the “Powers that Be” while withstanding media criticism that seems disproportionate for an American who simply is exercising his rights under the law.

The post What is the Greatest Threat to Your Investment Today? No, It’s Not the Government! appeared first on Stock Investor.

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Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024
A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

I always like to star…

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Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024

A brief excerpt:
This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

I always like to start with inventory, since inventory usually tells the tale!
...
Here is a graph of new listing from Realtor.com’s February 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report showing new listings were up 11.3% year-over-year in February. This is still well below pre-pandemic levels. From Realtor.com:

However, providing a boost to overall inventory, sellers turned out in higher numbers this February as newly listed homes were 11.3% above last year’s levels. This marked the fourth month of increasing listing activity after a 17-month streak of decline.
Note the seasonality for new listings. December and January are seasonally the weakest months of the year for new listings, followed by February and November. New listings will be up year-over-year in 2024, but we will have to wait for the March and April data to see how close new listings are to normal levels.

There are always people that need to sell due to the so-called 3 D’s: Death, Divorce, and Disease. Also, in certain times, some homeowners will need to sell due to unemployment or excessive debt (neither is much of an issue right now).

And there are homeowners who want to sell for a number of reasons: upsizing (more babies), downsizing, moving for a new job, or moving to a nicer home or location (move-up buyers). It is some of the “want to sell” group that has been locked in with the golden handcuffs over the last couple of years, since it is financially difficult to move when your current mortgage rate is around 3%, and your new mortgage rate will be in the 6 1/2% to 7% range.

But time is a factor for this “want to sell” group, and eventually some of them will take the plunge. That is probably why we are seeing more new listings now.
There is much more in the article.

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RFK Jr. Reveals Vice President Contenders

RFK Jr. Reveals Vice President Contenders

Authored by Jeff Louderback via The Epoch Times,

New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers and former…

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RFK Jr. Reveals Vice President Contenders

Authored by Jeff Louderback via The Epoch Times,

New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers and former Minnesota governor and professional wrestler Jesse Ventura are among the potential running mates for independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the New York Times reported on March 12.

Citing “two people familiar with the discussions,” the New York Times wrote that Mr. Kennedy “recently approached” Mr. Rodgers and Mr. Ventura about the vice president’s role, “and both have welcomed the overtures.”

Mr. Kennedy has talked to Mr. Rodgers “pretty continuously” over the last month, according to the story. The candidate has kept in touch with Mr. Ventura since the former governor introduced him at a February voter rally in Tucson, Arizona.

Stefanie Spear, who is the campaign press secretary, told The Epoch Times on March 12 that “Mr. Kennedy did share with the New York Times that he’s considering Aaron Rodgers and Jesse Ventura as running mates along with others on a short list.”

Ms. Spear added that Mr. Kennedy will name his running mate in the upcoming weeks.

Former Democrat presidential candidates Andrew Yang and Tulsi Gabbard declined the opportunity to join Mr. Kennedy’s ticket, according to the New York Times.

Mr. Kennedy has also reportedly talked to Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) about becoming his running mate.

Last week, Mr. Kennedy endorsed Mr. Paul to replace Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) as the Senate Minority Leader after Mr. McConnell announced he would step down from the post at the end of the year.

CNN reported early on March 13 that Mr. Kennedy’s shortlist also includes motivational speaker Tony Robbins, Discovery Channel Host Mike Rowe, and civil rights attorney Tricia Lindsay. The Washington Post included the aforementioned names plus former Republican Massachusetts senator and U.S. Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa, Scott Brown.

In April 2023, Mr. Kennedy entered the Democrat presidential primary to challenge President Joe Biden for the party’s 2024 nomination. Claiming that the Democrat National Committee was “rigging the primary” to stop candidates from opposing President Biden, Mr. Kennedy said last October that he would run as an independent.

This year, Mr. Kennedy’s campaign has shifted its focus to ballot access. He currently has qualified for the ballot as an independent in New Hampshire, Utah, and Nevada.

Mr. Kennedy also qualified for the ballot in Hawaii under the “We the People” party.

In January, Mr. Kennedy’s campaign said it had filed paperwork in six states to create a political party. The move was made to get his name on the ballots with fewer voter signatures than those states require for candidates not affiliated with a party.

The “We the People” party was established in five states: California, Delaware, Hawaii, Mississippi, and North Carolina. The “Texas Independent Party” was also formed.

A statement by Mr. Kennedy’s campaign reported that filing for political party status in the six states reduced the number of signatures required for him to gain ballot access by about 330,000.

Ballot access guidelines have created a sense of urgency to name a running mate. More than 20 states require independent and third-party candidates to have a vice presidential pick before collecting and submitting signatures.

Like Mr. Kennedy, Mr. Ventura is an outspoken critic of COVID-19 vaccine mandates and safety.

Mr. Ventura, 72, gained acclaim in the 1970s and 1980s as a professional wrestler known as Jesse “the Body” Ventura. He appeared in movies and television shows before entering the Minnesota gubernatorial race as a Reform Party headliner. He was a longshot candidate but prevailed and served one term.

Former pro wrestler Jesse Ventura in Washington on Oct. 4, 2013. (Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images)

In an interview on a YouTube podcast last December, Mr. Ventura was asked if he would accept an offer to run on Mr. Kennedy’s ticket.

“I would give it serious consideration. I won’t tell you yes or no. It will depend on my personal life. Would I want to commit myself at 72 for one year of hell (campaigning) and then four years (in office)?” Mr. Ventura said with a grin.

Mr. Rodgers, who spent his entire career as a quarterback for the Green Bay Packers before joining the New York Jets last season, remains under contract with the Jets. He has not publicly commented about joining Mr. Kennedy’s ticket, but the four-time NFL MVP endorsed him earlier this year and has stumped for him on podcasts.

The 40-year-old Rodgers is still under contract with the Jets after tearing his Achilles tendon in the 2023 season opener and being sidelined the rest of the year. The Jets are owned by Woody Johnson, a prominent donor to former President Donald Trump who served as U.S. Ambassador to Britain under President Trump.

Since the COVID-19 vaccine was introduced, Mr. Rodgers has been outspoken about health issues that can result from taking the shot. He told podcaster Joe Rogan that he has lost friends and sponsorship deals because of his decision not to get vaccinated.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers of the New York Jets talks to reporters after training camp at Atlantic Health Jets Training Center in Florham Park, N.J., on July 26, 2023. (Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

Earlier this year, Mr. Rodgers challenged Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce and Dr. Anthony Fauci to a debate.

Mr. Rodgers referred to Mr. Kelce, who signed an endorsement deal with vaccine manufacturer Pfizer, as “Mr. Pfizer.”

Dr. Fauci served as director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases from 1984 to 2022 and was chief medical adviser to the president from 2021 to 2022.

When Mr. Kennedy announces his running mate, it will mark another challenge met to help gain ballot access.

“In some states, the signature gathering window is not open. New York is one of those and is one of the most difficult with ballot access requirements,” Ms. Spear told The Epoch Times.

“We need our VP pick and our electors, and we have to gather 45,000 valid signatures. That means we will collect 72,000 since we have a 60 percent buffer in every state,” she added.

The window for gathering signatures in New York opens on April 16 and closes on May 28, Ms. Spear noted.

“Mississippi, North Carolina, and Oklahoma are the next three states we will most likely check off our list,” Ms. Spear added. “We are confident that Mr. Kennedy will be on the ballot in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. We have a strategist, petitioners, attorneys, and the overall momentum of the campaign.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/13/2024 - 15:45

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Pharma industry reputation remains steady at a ‘new normal’ after Covid, Harris Poll finds

The pharma industry is hanging on to reputation gains notched during the Covid-19 pandemic. Positive perception of the pharma industry is steady at 45%…

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The pharma industry is hanging on to reputation gains notched during the Covid-19 pandemic. Positive perception of the pharma industry is steady at 45% of US respondents in 2023, according to the latest Harris Poll data. That’s exactly the same as the previous year.

Pharma’s highest point was in February 2021 — as Covid vaccines began to roll out — with a 62% positive US perception, and helping the industry land at an average 55% positive sentiment at the end of the year in Harris’ 2021 annual assessment of industries. The pharma industry’s reputation hit its most recent low at 32% in 2019, but it had hovered around 30% for more than a decade prior.

Rob Jekielek

“Pharma has sustained a lot of the gains, now basically one and half times higher than pre-Covid,” said Harris Poll managing director Rob Jekielek. “There is a question mark around how sustained it will be, but right now it feels like a new normal.”

The Harris survey spans 11 global markets and covers 13 industries. Pharma perception is even better abroad, with an average 58% of respondents notching favorable sentiments in 2023, just a slight slip from 60% in each of the two previous years.

Pharma’s solid global reputation puts it in the middle of the pack among international industries, ranking higher than government at 37% positive, insurance at 48%, financial services at 51% and health insurance at 52%. Pharma ranks just behind automotive (62%), manufacturing (63%) and consumer products (63%), although it lags behind leading industries like tech at 75% positive in the first spot, followed by grocery at 67%.

The bright spotlight on the pharma industry during Covid vaccine and drug development boosted its reputation, but Jekielek said there’s maybe an argument to be made that pharma is continuing to develop innovative drugs outside that spotlight.

“When you look at pharma reputation during Covid, you have clear sense of a very dynamic industry working very quickly and getting therapies and products to market. If you’re looking at things happening now, you could argue that pharma still probably doesn’t get enough credit for its advances, for example, in oncology treatments,” he said.

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