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What is quantitative easing, and how does it work?

Quantitative easing is a monetary policy tool where a central bank purchases financial assets to increase the money supply and stimulate economic activity.

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Quantitative easing is a monetary policy tool where a central bank purchases financial assets to increase the money supply and stimulate economic activity.

Criticisms and limitations of quantitative easing

Although quantitative easing can be a useful tool in times of economic crisis, it is often criticized for its potential drawbacks, which include escalating inequality, distorting markets and possibly laying the groundwork for future financial instability.

Benefits from QE frequently accrue to asset owners, especially the wealthy who own financial assets such as stocks and bonds. Due to the fact that it may not always result in fair economic growth or be advantageous to a larger population, this can worsen income disparity.

Additionally, the increase in liquidity brought on by QE has the potential to fuel excessive speculation and asset bubbles in the financial markets, potentially driving up prices for stocks, homes and other assets to unsustainable levels. Furthermore, higher volatility in the cryptocurrency markets could result from increased liquidity from QE, making them less appealing to traditional investors.

The effects of QE on inflation and real economic growth may be modest. In times of uncertainty or when interest rates are already very low, it may fail to significantly increase consumer spending or business investment.

Moreover, QE can impair the proper operation of financial markets by artificially lowering interest rates and distorting the yield curve, making it more difficult for investors to appropriately assess risk and allocate resources effectively.

When central banks rely too heavily on unorthodox monetary measures like QE, their effectiveness may eventually decline, leaving fewer tools available to address future economic challenges. Last but not least, QE may result in a weaker currency, which could raise issues with global trade imbalances and competitive currency devaluation.

Quantitative easing (QE) and quantitative tightening (QT)

The opposite of QE, known as QT, involves central banks selling assets to reduce the money supply and possibly raise interest rates. QT may result in less liquidity on financial markets, which may impact the value of cryptocurrencies.

Some key differences between QE and QT are stated in the table below:

Quantitative easing (QE) vs. Quantitative tightening (QT)

It’s important to emphasize that the effects of policies such as QE and QT are not fixed; they can fluctuate depending on unique economic circumstances and the timing of their execution.

Impact of quantitative easing on cryptocurrencies

Through broader market dynamics, quantitative easing may have an indirect impact on cryptocurrencies. 

Traditional banking systems’ quantitative easing may have unintended consequences for cryptocurrencies. When central banks participate in quantitative easing, they may lower interest rates and devalue fiat currencies by injecting money into the economy.

Some investors may turn to alternative stores of value, such as cryptocurrencies, in light of greater liquidity and diminished purchasing power for traditional assets. As a result, the demand for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin would rise, potentially pushing up their values. However, such a scenario doesn’t directly result from QE’s mechanisms but rather from investors’ reactions to the economic conditions influenced by quantitative easing.

However, as mentioned, cryptocurrencies function in a unique ecosystem that is influenced by forces other than conventional monetary policy. Other factors that affect their worth include market sentiment, regulatory changes, technological improvements and adoption patterns.

The interaction between conventional financial markets and the distinctive features of digital assets makes QE’s effect on cryptocurrencies complex and multifaceted.

How does quantitative easing work?

QE is a central bank’s strategy of injecting money into its economy by buying assets to lower interest rates and boost economic activity.

The authority to engage in QE as part of its monetary policy tools is granted to central banks like the Federal Reserve in the U.S., the European Central Bank or the Bank of Japan. These central banks make strategic efforts to boost the economy when more conventional policies, such as interest rate adjustments, are less successful. 

There are various steps involved in this process. First, the central bank determines the economic circumstances that call for QE, which frequently occur during recessions or times of low inflation. Once a decision has been made, the central bank declares its intention to purchase financial assets, such as equities or bonds, from the market.

By doing this, the bank raises interest rates and stimulates demand for these assets, which in turn drives up their prices. The central bank generates new money digitally to enable these purchases, which it then uses to pay the sellers, often banks or financial institutions. As a result, the economy’s money supply grows. The increased availability of funds may boost borrowing, investing and spending.

QE aims to stimulate economies by boosting the money supply and lowering long-term interest rates. When conventional monetary policies are insufficient, they promote lending, investment and expenditure to enhance growth while reducing deflationary pressures.

How does quantitative easing extend to the realm of cryptocurrencies?

Although there are parallels between some measures taken in the world of cryptocurrencies and the consequences of quantitative easing, it is difficult to directly apply conventional ideas of monetary policy to cryptocurrencies due to their decentralized nature.

In contrast to traditional financial systems, the idea of QE does not apply directly to the world of cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), run on decentralized networks and are not regulated by governments or central banks. As a result, no one institution can implement conventional monetary policy measures like quantitative easing in the crypto industry.

However, there are some potential implications to consider:

Supply dynamics

Traditional quantitative easing involves central banks buying financial assets to raise the money supply. In the world of cryptocurrencies, some cryptocurrencies, such as BTC, which has a fixed supply of 21 million coins, have set or capped supplies. Thus, there are differences in supply dynamics. These coins don’t produce new units; therefore, hodlers may see swings in value owing to supply constraints.

Forking and airdrops

In the cryptocurrency world, there are situations where new tokens are handed to existing hodlers, similar to a central bank’s quantitative easing program in that it expands the quantity of tokens. QE-like distributional effects can be produced through forks and airdrops, but they frequently arise from technical developments or community decisions rather than from deliberate monetary policy.

Stablecoins and collateral

Some stablecoins could theoretically be used in ways similar to QE. For instance, if a stablecoin issuer were to create more stablecoins backed by additional collateral, it could resemble an expansion of the money supply. Stablecoins are often tied to real-world assets; thus, this isn’t precisely the same as QE.

Market dynamics

Due to a variety of reasons, including market sentiment, technological breakthroughs, regulatory developments and macroeconomic trends, cryptocurrency markets may see price gains or reductions. Sometimes, these price changes might be compared to how monetary policy affects conventional assets.

Understanding quantitative easing

Quantitative easing entails the central bank acquiring financial assets off the market, such as government bonds. 

When interest rates are low and conventional measures are less successful, central banks use the monetary policy tool known as quantitative easing (QE) to boost the economy. The central bank initiates QE by acquiring financial assets from business banks, financial institutions and, occasionally, the open market. Government bonds are the most commonly bought assets, but central banks can also purchase corporate bonds or mortgage-backed securities.

The central bank issues new currency to cover the cost of these purchases. As a result, the economy has more money available. The freshly produced money is given to the asset sellers, which are often banks, in exchange for the assets they sell to the central bank.

The central bank raises demand for assets by purchasing significant amounts of them, particularly government bonds. As a result, these assets become more expensive, and, in turn, their yields or interest rates decline. Lower long-term interest rates stimulate spending and borrowing, as well as stock and real estate investments in riskier assets.

The United States Federal Reserve implemented quantitative easing to amplify the money supply and invigorate economic expansion, addressing the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact. As a result, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet surged to approximately $8.24 trillion (as purchased assets were added to the central bank’s balance sheet).

One of the key concerns with QE is its potential impact on inflation. A considerable infusion of cash into the economy could result in price increases if the growth of products and services is outpaced by the expansion of the money supply. However, this risk depends on a number of variables, including the overall health of the economy, consumer and business trends, and the central bank’s capacity to successfully control the money supply. 

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Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024
A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

I always like to star…

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Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024

A brief excerpt:
This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

I always like to start with inventory, since inventory usually tells the tale!
...
Here is a graph of new listing from Realtor.com’s February 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report showing new listings were up 11.3% year-over-year in February. This is still well below pre-pandemic levels. From Realtor.com:

However, providing a boost to overall inventory, sellers turned out in higher numbers this February as newly listed homes were 11.3% above last year’s levels. This marked the fourth month of increasing listing activity after a 17-month streak of decline.
Note the seasonality for new listings. December and January are seasonally the weakest months of the year for new listings, followed by February and November. New listings will be up year-over-year in 2024, but we will have to wait for the March and April data to see how close new listings are to normal levels.

There are always people that need to sell due to the so-called 3 D’s: Death, Divorce, and Disease. Also, in certain times, some homeowners will need to sell due to unemployment or excessive debt (neither is much of an issue right now).

And there are homeowners who want to sell for a number of reasons: upsizing (more babies), downsizing, moving for a new job, or moving to a nicer home or location (move-up buyers). It is some of the “want to sell” group that has been locked in with the golden handcuffs over the last couple of years, since it is financially difficult to move when your current mortgage rate is around 3%, and your new mortgage rate will be in the 6 1/2% to 7% range.

But time is a factor for this “want to sell” group, and eventually some of them will take the plunge. That is probably why we are seeing more new listings now.
There is much more in the article.

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Pharma industry reputation remains steady at a ‘new normal’ after Covid, Harris Poll finds

The pharma industry is hanging on to reputation gains notched during the Covid-19 pandemic. Positive perception of the pharma industry is steady at 45%…

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The pharma industry is hanging on to reputation gains notched during the Covid-19 pandemic. Positive perception of the pharma industry is steady at 45% of US respondents in 2023, according to the latest Harris Poll data. That’s exactly the same as the previous year.

Pharma’s highest point was in February 2021 — as Covid vaccines began to roll out — with a 62% positive US perception, and helping the industry land at an average 55% positive sentiment at the end of the year in Harris’ 2021 annual assessment of industries. The pharma industry’s reputation hit its most recent low at 32% in 2019, but it had hovered around 30% for more than a decade prior.

Rob Jekielek

“Pharma has sustained a lot of the gains, now basically one and half times higher than pre-Covid,” said Harris Poll managing director Rob Jekielek. “There is a question mark around how sustained it will be, but right now it feels like a new normal.”

The Harris survey spans 11 global markets and covers 13 industries. Pharma perception is even better abroad, with an average 58% of respondents notching favorable sentiments in 2023, just a slight slip from 60% in each of the two previous years.

Pharma’s solid global reputation puts it in the middle of the pack among international industries, ranking higher than government at 37% positive, insurance at 48%, financial services at 51% and health insurance at 52%. Pharma ranks just behind automotive (62%), manufacturing (63%) and consumer products (63%), although it lags behind leading industries like tech at 75% positive in the first spot, followed by grocery at 67%.

The bright spotlight on the pharma industry during Covid vaccine and drug development boosted its reputation, but Jekielek said there’s maybe an argument to be made that pharma is continuing to develop innovative drugs outside that spotlight.

“When you look at pharma reputation during Covid, you have clear sense of a very dynamic industry working very quickly and getting therapies and products to market. If you’re looking at things happening now, you could argue that pharma still probably doesn’t get enough credit for its advances, for example, in oncology treatments,” he said.

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Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
A brief excerpt: I’ve argued repeatedly that we would NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened followi…

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Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

A brief excerpt:
I’ve argued repeatedly that we would NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble). The two key reasons are mortgage lending has been solid, and most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes..
...
And on mortgage rates, here is some data from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013 through Q3 2023 (Q4 2023 data will be released in a two weeks).

This shows the surge in the percent of loans under 3%, and also under 4%, starting in early 2020 as mortgage rates declined sharply during the pandemic. Currently 22.6% of loans are under 3%, 59.4% are under 4%, and 78.7% are under 5%.

With substantial equity, and low mortgage rates (mostly at a fixed rates), few homeowners will have financial difficulties.
There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

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