Week Ahead – Recession fears increasing
Plenty more to come It’s been another turbulent week in financial markets and there’s nothing to suggest it’s going to ease up any time soon. For…
Share this:
Plenty more to come
It’s been another turbulent week in financial markets and there’s nothing to suggest it’s going to ease up any time soon. For months investors have been asking themselves how many rate hikes are too many? What will tip the economy over the edge and into a recession? This week we may have got a clue as markets went into risk-averse mode and the dollar slipped while yields declined and gold rallied. Are recession fears now creeping in?
Economic surveys next week could tell us just how concerned businesses are about inflation and how bad they expect it to get. Meanwhile, we’ll hear from various central bank policymakers about their views on the latest data and whether they are still confident that a tightening-induced recession can be avoided.
The week starts with elections in Australia over the weekend which could make Monday’s open all the more interesting. We’ll also get rate decisions from New Zealand and Turkey, as well as minutes from the last Fed meeting. Needless to say, it promises to be another fascinating week.
CBRT to hold despite inflation nearing 70%
Australian election too close to call
US
In the US, a theme of weaker economic data is expected for the upcoming week. Risk appetite will get challenged as the likely story will be of weaker manufacturing activity, housing data, personal spending, and a very slow deceleration with pricing pressures. The Fed minutes for the May 4th meeting are already dated and will have less impact as recent Fed speak supports a half-point rate increase for the next meeting. The Fed’s Raphael Bostic will speak about the economic outlook on Monday and Esther George will give a speech on Wednesday. Both support raising rates by 50-basis points.
Many traders will focus on President Biden’s five-day Asia trip that will include a press conference with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and the Quad summit in Japan.
EU
The bulk of the tier one data comes early next week, with bank holiday’s on Thursday ensuring a quieter end. PMI data will be poured over for signs of slowing growth and increasing inflationary pressures. The ECB is late to the hiking party but the first could come as soon as July, after which a number could follow in quick succession. Further hints will be sought from various policymaker appearances.
The bloc is continuing to work towards a Russian oil embargo with Hungary still standing in the way.
UK
The UK is heading for a recession and double-digit inflation, both of which the BoE has resigned itself to. The cost-of-living crisis has caught up with the economy and will weigh for many months to come despite the efforts of the central bank which started tightening late last year, much sooner than many of its peers. Governor Bailey will speak again on Monday but having made multiple appearances recently, I’m not sure what value he can add.
The only data of note in an otherwise quiet week is the PMIs on Tuesday which could offer further clues on the economy and inflation. Forecasts suggest the slower growth across the board.
Russia
We’ll hear from CBR Chair Elvira Nabiullina on a couple of occasions next week. The central bank is continuing to unwind its emergency rate hikes imposed in the aftermath of the Western sanctions as the currency has fully recovered and inflation is expected to perform much better than anticipated. Nabiullina may shed further light on this.
South Africa
A quiet week in store after the SARB on Thursday delivered its first super-sized hike of 50 basis points. Coming after raising rates by 25 basis points at three previous meetings, the acceleration reflected the greater inflation risks to the economy, with the current rate sitting right at the top of the 3-6% band. The repo rate now sits at 4.75% and there’s room to move further, with inflation now only seen returning to the mid part of the range at the end of 2024, later than previously anticipated.
Turkey
The CBRT is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 14% on Thursday, despite inflation hitting 69.97% in April.
China
China continues to battle the pandemic with a rigid zero-Covid policy. The government has imposed strict lockdowns in Shanghai and other major cities, which have hampered economic growth and disrupted global supply chains.
As Covid cases have been falling, China is slowly easing the pandemic restrictions. Authorities have designated June 1st as a tentative date for Shanghai to fully reopen, but this date will likely be postponed if there is an increase in the number of Covid cases.
India
The RBI opted for an off-cycle hike earlier this month, saying that it needed to respond urgently to rising inflation. Although the markets were expecting a rate hike, the timing of the 40 basis point increase was a surprise. This was the RBI’s first rate hike since August 2018, with additional rate hikes widely expected at upcoming meetings. The next meeting is scheduled for June 6-8.
Australia
Australia holds a federal election on Saturday (May 21st), with the election campaign focusing on economic issues.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s centre-right coalition has closed the gap with the opposition Labour party, led by Anthony Albanese. The latest opinion polls show that the race is too close to call.
PMIs and retail sales among the notable economic releases next week.
New Zealand
New Zealand kicks off the week with retail sales for Q1 on Tuesday. Consumers were in a spending mood in Q4 of 2021, as retail sales jumped 8.6% QoQ.
The RBNZ holds a rate meeting on Wednesday. The central bank has been aggressively raising interest rates in order to curb spiralling inflation, which hit 6.9% in Q1. The RBNZ is expected to increase rates by 0.50%, bringing the official cash rate to 2.00%.
On Friday, New Zealand releases the May ANZ consumer confidence. The RBNZ will be keeping a close eye on inflation expectations, which remain above its inflation target of 1%- 3%.
Japan
Core inflation hit 2.1% last month, above the BoJ target for the first time since 2008 (barring a period in 2015 after a sales tax hike). It isn’t expected to last though with energy being a key driver of the increase and wages not rising nearly as much. The central bank is expected to remain committed to ultra-loose policy even as it battles the market on its yield curve control policy tool.
Singapore
Singapore releases its inflation report on Monday. April CPI is expected to rise 0.1% compared with 1.2% previously. On an annualized basis, CPI is forecast to climb 5.6% against 5.4% a month earlier while core inflation is expected to exceed 3%. Higher core inflation is a key reason why the Monetary Authority tightened policy in April.
On Wednesday, Singapore releases GDP for Q1, followed by industrial production for April on Thursday.
Economic Calendar
Saturday, May 21
Economic Data/Events
Australia’s national election
President Biden holds a press conference with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol in Seoul
Sunday, May 22
Economic Data/Events
World Economic Forum begins in Davos, Switzerland
Monday, May 23
Economic Data/Events
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Germany IFO business climate
President Biden meets Japan PM Kishida in Tokyo
Singapore CPI
Fed’s Bostic discusses the economic outlook at an event hosted by the Rotary Club of Atlanta
Fed’s George speaks at an agricultural symposium
ECB’s Holzmann and Nagel, BOE Gov Bailey discuss inflation at an Austrian National Bank conference in Vienna
World Gas Conference in Daegu, Korea begins
Tuesday, May 24
Economic Data/Events
President Biden attends Quad summit with Japan, Australia and India in Tokyo
DC Blockchain Summit in Washington, DC
NOAA releases its initial outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season
Sweden’s Riksbank publishes its Financial Stability Report 2022
Eurozone S&P Global PMIs
France S&P Global PMIs
Germany S&P Global PMIs
Indonesia rate decision
Mexico international reserves
Nigeria GDP, rate decision
UK S&P Global PMIs
US new home sales, S&P Global PMIs
Wednesday, May 25
Economic Data/Events
FOMC Minutes
US Durable goods
RBNZ Rate Decision: Expected to raise Official Cash Rate by 50 bps to 2.00%
RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr speaks following the rate decision
The Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control will let a sanctions exemption that’s allowed US investors to receive payments on Russian debt lapse
ECB’s Holzmann speaks at the Central & Eastern European Forum in Vienna
Bank of Finland Governor Rehn speaks at the bank’s annual payments forum
ECB publishes its Financial Stability Review
Germany GDP
Mexico trade, GDP
Singapore GDP
EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report
Thursday, May 26
Economic Data/Events
US GDP, initial jobless claims
US House Financial Services Committee has a hearing on “Digital Assets and the Future of Finance: Examining the Benefits and Risks of a US Central Bank Digital Currency”
New Zealand PM Ardern speaks at Harvard University’s 371st Commencement ceremony
Mexico central bank monetary policy minutes
Canada retail sales
Singapore industrial production
Turkey rate decision: Expected to keep One-Week Repo Rate unchanged at 14.00%
Hungary one-week deposit rate
Friday, May 27
Economic Data/Events
US core PCE price index; personal income and spending; wholesale inventories; University of Michigan consumer sentiment
NATO Parliamentary Assembly spring session begins
President Biden addresses US Naval Academy Class of 2022
Australia retail sales
China industrial profits
Japan Tokyo CPI
Sovereign Rating Updates:
– Italy (Fitch)
– Sweden (Fitch)
– Switzerland (Moody’s)
– Turkey (Moody’s)
– Poland (DBRS)
yield curve pandemic blockchain home sales gold oil
Government
Mike Pompeo Doesn’t Rule Out Serving In 2nd Trump Administration
Mike Pompeo Doesn’t Rule Out Serving In 2nd Trump Administration
Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Former Secretary…
Share this:
Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a new interview that he’s not ruling out accepting a White House position if former President Donald Trump is reelected in November.
“If I get a chance to serve and think that I can make a difference ... I’m almost certainly going to say yes to that opportunity to try and deliver on behalf of the American people,” he told Fox News, when asked during a interview if he would work for President Trump again.
“I’m confident President Trump will be looking for people who will faithfully execute what it is he asked them to do,” Mr. Pompeo said during the interview, which aired on March 8. “I think as a president, you should always want that from everyone.”
He said that as a former secretary of state, “I certainly wanted my team to do what I was asking them to do and was enormously frustrated when I found that I couldn’t get them to do that.”
Mr. Pompeo, a former U.S. representative from Kansas, served as Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) director in the Trump administration from 2017 to 2018 before he was secretary of state from 2018 to 2021. After he left office, there was speculation that he could mount a Republican presidential bid in 2024, but announced that he wouldn’t be running.
President Trump hasn’t publicly commented about Mr. Pompeo’s remarks.
In 2023, amid speculation that he would make a run for the White House, Mr. Pompeo took a swipe at his former boss, telling Fox News at the time that “the Trump administration spent $6 trillion more than it took in, adding to the deficit.”
“That’s never the right direction for the country,” he said.
In a public appearance last year, Mr. Pompeo also appeared to take a shot at the 45th president by criticizing “celebrity leaders” when urging GOP voters to choose ahead of the 2024 election.
2024 Race
Mr. Pompeo’s interview comes as the former president was named the “presumptive nominee” by the Republican National Committee (RNC) last week after his last major Republican challenger, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, dropped out of the 2024 race after failing to secure enough delegates. President Trump won 14 out of 15 states on Super Tuesday, with only Vermont—which notably has an open primary—going for Ms. Haley, who served as President Trump’s U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.
On March 8, the RNC held a meeting in Houston during which committee members voted in favor of President Trump’s nomination.
“Congratulations to President Donald J. Trump on his huge primary victory!” the organization said in a statement last week. “I’d also like to congratulate Nikki Haley for running a hard-fought campaign and becoming the first woman to win a Republican presidential contest.”
Earlier this year, the former president criticized the idea of being named the presumptive nominee after reports suggested that the RNC would do so before the Super Tuesday contests and while Ms. Haley was still in the race.
Also on March 8, the RNC voted to name Trump-endorsed officials to head the organization. Michael Whatley, a North Carolina Republican, was elected the party’s new national chairman in a vote in Houston, and Lara Trump, the former president’s daughter-in-law, was voted in as co-chair.
“The RNC is going to be the vanguard of a movement that will work tirelessly every single day to elect our nominee, Donald J. Trump, as the 47th President of the United States,” Mr. Whatley told RNC members in a speech after being elected, replacing former chair Ronna McDaniel. Ms. Trump is expected to focus largely on fundraising and media appearances.
President Trump hasn’t signaled whom he would appoint to various federal agencies if he’s reelected in November. He also hasn’t said who his pick for a running mate would be, but has offered several suggestions in recent interviews.
In various interviews, the former president has mentioned Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), Vivek Ramaswamy, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, among others.
International
Riley Gaines Explains How Women’s Sports Are Rigged To Promote The Trans Agenda
Riley Gaines Explains How Women’s Sports Are Rigged To Promote The Trans Agenda
Is there a light forming when it comes to the long, dark and…
Share this:
Is there a light forming when it comes to the long, dark and bewildering tunnel of social justice cultism? Global events have been so frenetic that many people might not remember, but only a couple years ago Big Tech companies and numerous governments were openly aligned in favor of mass censorship. Not just to prevent the public from investigating the facts surrounding the pandemic farce, but to silence anyone questioning the validity of woke concepts like trans ideology.
From 2020-2022 was the closest the west has come in a long time to a complete erasure of freedom of speech. Even today there are still countries and Europe and places like Canada or Australia that are charging forward with draconian speech laws. The phrase "radical speech" is starting to circulate within pro-censorship circles in reference to any platform where people are allowed to talk critically. What is radical speech? Basically, it's any discussion that runs contrary to the beliefs of the political left.
Open hatred of moderate or conservative ideals is perfectly acceptable, but don't ever shine a negative light on woke activism, or you might be a terrorist.
Riley Gaines has experienced this double standard first hand. She was even assaulted and taken hostage at an event in 2023 at San Francisco State University when leftists protester tried to trap her in a room and demanded she "pay them to let her go." Campus police allegedly witnessed the incident but charges were never filed and surveillance footage from the college was never released.
It's probably the last thing a champion female swimmer ever expects, but her head-on collision with the trans movement and the institutional conspiracy to push it on the public forced her to become a counter-culture voice of reason rather than just an athlete.
For years the independent media argued that no matter how much we expose the insanity of men posing as women to compete and dominate women's sports, nothing will really change until the real female athletes speak up and fight back. Riley Gaines and those like her represent that necessary rebellion and a desperately needed return to common sense and reason.
In a recent interview on the Joe Rogan Podcast, Gaines related some interesting information on the inner workings of the NCAA and the subversive schemes surrounding trans athletes. Not only were women participants essentially strong-armed by colleges and officials into quietly going along with the program, there was also a concerted propaganda effort. Competition ceremonies were rigged as vehicles for promoting trans athletes over everyone else.
The bottom line? The competitions didn't matter. The real women and their achievements didn't matter. The only thing that mattered to officials were the photo ops; dudes pretending to be chicks posing with awards for the gushing corporate media. The agenda took precedence.
Lia Thomas, formerly known as William Thomas, was more than an activist invading female sports, he was also apparently a science project fostered and protected by the athletic establishment. It's important to understand that the political left does not care about female athletes. They do not care about women's sports. They don't care about the integrity of the environments they co-opt. Their only goal is to identify viable platforms with social impact and take control of them. Women's sports are seen as a vehicle for public indoctrination, nothing more.
The reasons why they covet women's sports are varied, but a primary motive is the desire to assert the fallacy that men and women are "the same" psychologically as well as physically. They want the deconstruction of biological sex and identity as nothing more than "social constructs" subject to personal preference. If they can destroy what it means to be a man or a woman, they can destroy the very foundations of relationships, families and even procreation.
For now it seems as though the trans agenda is hitting a wall with much of the public aware of it and less afraid to criticize it. Social media companies might be able to silence some people, but they can't silence everyone. However, there is still a significant threat as the movement continues to target children through the public education system and women's sports are not out of the woods yet.
The ultimate solution is for women athletes around the world to organize and widely refuse to participate in any competitions in which biological men are allowed. The only way to save women's sports is for women to be willing to end them, at least until institutions that put doctrine ahead of logic are made irrelevant.
Uncategorized
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024
A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market.
I always like to star…
Share this:
A brief excerpt:
This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market.There is much more in the article.
I always like to start with inventory, since inventory usually tells the tale!
...
Here is a graph of new listing from Realtor.com’s February 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report showing new listings were up 11.3% year-over-year in February. This is still well below pre-pandemic levels. From Realtor.com:
However, providing a boost to overall inventory, sellers turned out in higher numbers this February as newly listed homes were 11.3% above last year’s levels. This marked the fourth month of increasing listing activity after a 17-month streak of decline.Note the seasonality for new listings. December and January are seasonally the weakest months of the year for new listings, followed by February and November. New listings will be up year-over-year in 2024, but we will have to wait for the March and April data to see how close new listings are to normal levels.
There are always people that need to sell due to the so-called 3 D’s: Death, Divorce, and Disease. Also, in certain times, some homeowners will need to sell due to unemployment or excessive debt (neither is much of an issue right now).
And there are homeowners who want to sell for a number of reasons: upsizing (more babies), downsizing, moving for a new job, or moving to a nicer home or location (move-up buyers). It is some of the “want to sell” group that has been locked in with the golden handcuffs over the last couple of years, since it is financially difficult to move when your current mortgage rate is around 3%, and your new mortgage rate will be in the 6 1/2% to 7% range.
But time is a factor for this “want to sell” group, and eventually some of them will take the plunge. That is probably why we are seeing more new listings now.
IFM’s Hat Trick and Reflections On Option-To-Buy M&A
Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
Pharma industry reputation remains steady at a ‘new normal’ after Covid, Harris Poll finds
Four Years Ago This Week, Freedom Was Torched
Red Candle In The Wind
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024
Digital Currency And Gold As Speculative Warnings
Analyst reviews Apple stock price target amid challenges
The SNF Institute for Global Infectious Disease Research announces new advisory board
CDC Warns Thousands Of Children Sent To ER After Taking Common Sleep Aid
-
Uncategorized3 weeks agoAll Of The Elements Are In Place For An Economic Crisis Of Staggering Proportions
-
International5 days agoEyePoint poaches medical chief from Apellis; Sandoz CFO, longtime BioNTech exec to retire
-
Uncategorized4 weeks agoCalifornia Counties Could Be Forced To Pay $300 Million To Cover COVID-Era Program
-
Uncategorized3 weeks agoApparel Retailer Express Moving Toward Bankruptcy
-
Uncategorized4 weeks agoIndustrial Production Decreased 0.1% in January
-
International5 days agoWalmart launches clever answer to Target’s new membership program
-
Uncategorized4 weeks agoRFK Jr: The Wuhan Cover-Up & The Rise Of The Biowarfare-Industrial Complex
-
Uncategorized3 weeks agoGOP Efforts To Shore Up Election Security In Swing States Face Challenges