Week Ahead – Focus on Georgia Senate races and COVID holiday surge
US The week ahead is all about COVID, the Georgia Senate runoff races, and possibly a negative nonfarm payroll reading. The US is already setting daily COVID-19 records ahead of the holiday surge and concerns are high the new COVID-19 strain believed…
Share this:
US
The week ahead is all about COVID, the Georgia Senate runoff races, and possibly a negative nonfarm payroll reading. The US is already setting daily COVID-19 records ahead of the holiday surge and concerns are high the new COVID-19 strain believed to be more contagious is spreading across the country. The January 5th Georgia Senate will closely be watched to see if the Democrats can pull off the upset and win both races, which would give them control of the Senate. Before Election Day in November, financial markets priced in for a ‘blue wave’, but that was completely reversed after the strong performance by Republicans. A Biden administration with Congress on his side would allow for sweeping reform that includes higher taxes, a strong push for more regulation, and clean energy initiatives.
The main economic data event of the week will be the December nonfarm payroll report. The winter wave of COVID is impacting employment and there’s a chance that we could see a negative print. Economists have a wide range of expectations from -175K to +200K.
US Politics
The Georgia Senate runoff races are here. There was not a lot of polling but the recent surveys give Republicans an edge that is within the margin of error. Immediately after the Election Day results, it seemed Democrats had a 10% chance of winning both seats, but now that has improved to an almost one in three chance. The latest polls show Republican Sen. David Perdue trailing 47.5% to 48.5% against Democrat Jon Ossoff, with Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler down 47.3% to 49.2% to Democrat Raphael Warnock. The polling sample is too small and runoff races deeply depend on how motivated each base can turn out the vote.
Both races are too close to call and within the margin of error. No one can be confident on what turnout to expect but early voting so far has been greater than what happened for the November 3rd election. The base case is still that Republicans will win one of the Senate races and secure control of the Senate but that is no longer a foregone conclusion.
EU
Pan-European Manufacturing and Services PMI’s released Monday and Wednesday. Both have been surprisingly resilient in the face of a resurgent Covid-19 pandemic. Both are expected to show improvements, notably service this week. Disappointing data will likely weigh on European equities rather than the Euro as the currency is a US Dollar story, and not a Europe story.
On that note, Georgia Senate runoff on Tuesday is a major risk point. A democrat win of both seats may provoke a sharp reversal into defensive US Dollars and lead to a large fall in the Euro due to extended long positioning.
Brexit
A Brexit deal was concluded on Christmas Eve and is moving rapidly through the approval process from both sides for the official start of the UK outside of Europe on Jan 1st. UK equities have been cautiously positive with Sterling also rallying. Sterling’s rally has been muted due to extended long positioning in the market ahead of the deal.
THe start of Brexit is a key risk point for UK equity markets and Sterling. If massive queues of trucks get caught on both sides of the English Channel due to slow paperwork and Brexit mechanics, markets are likely to take fright and exiti UK equities and long Sterling positions.
UK
Manufacturing and Services PMI’s expected to recover strongly but any gains will be more than offset by more of England entering tier-4 lockdowns. The approval of the Astra-Zeneca vaccine this week though, with inoculations to start on Jan 4th, is a game-changer for Britain. The vaccine approval should put a floor under any Covid-19 uncertainty regarding UK financial markets.
Brexit, as outlined above, is the major risk point for UK markets next week.
Turkey
Another two per cent hike in interest rates to 17% has boosted sentiment towards Turkish markets, notably the currency. The USD?TRY has fallen to 3.3800 this week, and is set to test its 200-day moving average at 7.3100 next week, assuming the US Dollar remains weak internationally.
The aggressive actions by the central bank on interest rates has put a floor on Turkish risk now, supporting the currency and allowing a rebuilding of forex reserves. Risks going forward are purely political over the next few weeks.
China
Caixin PMI’s and Balance of Trade are expected to show China’s economy continuing to fire on all cylinders. A surprise downside print (unlikely in China) would be a negative for China equities.
The White House is attempting to tighten the noose on US companies investing in Chinese equities associated with the military. Greater risk comes from the ongoing escalation of investigations into Ant Financial and Alibaba, as well as China big tech in general. The government will be happy to sacrifice short term pain on the stock market to get its way.
India
India added to the US watchlist over forex interventions. That may force the central bank to allow more INR strength harming exports and causing bond market outflows. Government continues to grapple with Covid-19 and farmer protests, and stagflation,hampering economic recovery.
India releases Manufacturing PMI and Balance of Trade on Monday. PMI recovery expected to increase, while BoT may disappoint. Unlikely to upset international investor flows into India bonds and equities as a recovery play.
New Zealand
Holiday shortened week with no significant data New Zealand Dollar significantly outperforms over holiday period, but Covid-19 situation in Sydney could bring it and NZ equites back to earth as Q1 2021 travel corridor hopes fade..
Australia
Holiday shortened week. Heavy data release schedule with PMI’s, Balance of Trade, ANZ Jobs Ads and Westpac Consumer Confidence. All are expected to be strong, reinforcing Australia’s rapid recovery.
Australian markets will be at the mercy of the evolution of the Covid-19 situation in Sydney. Escalation and/or wider lockdowns will exert a heavy price on Australian equities, but probably not the currency.
Japan
Japan releases PMI’s, Leading Economic Index, Consumer Confidence and Household Spending. Likely to show a continuation of manufacturing/industrial recovery but very weak consumer spending. With the Nikkei flying high at the year end, it could take the wind out of its sails.
Otherwise, equities and currency otherwise at the mercy of US fiscal progress in US Congress, and the fallout, if any, from the Georgia Senate runoff on Tuesday which is likely to be the macro influencer of the week.
Markets
Oil
Crude prices are declining as global lockdowns will complicate OPEC+ deliberations to increase output again in January. The virus situation in the US will likely produce more lockdowns and that could continue to weigh on the short-term demand outlook for crude.
Gold
Gold’s outlook for next year is still very bullish as a gloomy global first quarter will keep all the major central banks and governments providing more support. Gold could get a boost from the Fed’s Minutes or a wrath of Fed speak that will signal they are closer to providing more support for the economy.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s wild ride continues but might be losing momentum unless more institutional interest joins the cryptoverse. Regulatory concerns are percolating and that provide some massive pullbacks.
Key Economic Events
Sunday, January 3rd
- New Zealand celebrates day after New Year’s Day
- Australia Final Manufacturing Index
- Japan Final Manufacturing PMI
- China Caixin Manufacturing PMI
Monday, January 4th
Economic Releases:
- Manufacturing PMI Readings: US, Canada, UK, Mexico, India, Eurozone, Germany
- UK Mortgage Approvals
- Japan Monetary Base Levels
- Australia ANZ Job Advertisements m/m
- OPEC+ meeting to discuss February levels
Tuesday, January 5th
Economic Releases:
- Georgia Senate Runoff Races
- US Dec ISM Manufacturing: 56.5 estimate v 57.5 prior
- German Retail Sales and Unemployment Change
- CPI: Switzerland, French
- Canada Prices (Industrial and Raw)
- China Caixin Services PMI
Wednesday, January 6th
-A wrath of U.S. economic indicators could show the economy is heading in the wrong direction.
Economic Releases:
- FOMC Meeting Minutes, US Factory Orders, and Final Services PMI
- Services PMI: Spain, Italy, Germany, Eurozone, and the US
- Spain CPI
- EIA crude oil inventory report
- Australian Trade Data
Thursday, January 7th
Economic Releases:
- US Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Services Index
- Germany Factory Orders
- Switzerland Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate
- UK Construction PMI
- Eurozone Preliminary CPI readings and confidence data, retail sales
Friday, January 8th
Economic Releases:
- US Dec Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: 85K estimate v 245K prior, Unemployment Rate: 6.8% estimate v 6.7% prior, Average Hourly Earnings, Wholesale Trade data, and Consumer Credit
- Canada Net Change in Employment: No est v 62.1K prior
- German Nov Industrial Production M/M: 0.7% estimate v 3.2% prior
- France Industrial Production
- Eurozone Industrial Production
Government
Problems After COVID-19 Vaccination More Prevalent Among Naturally Immune: Study
Problems After COVID-19 Vaccination More Prevalent Among Naturally Immune: Study
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis…
Share this:
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
People who recovered from COVID-19 and received a COVID-19 shot were more likely to suffer adverse reactions, researchers in Europe are reporting.
Participants in the study were more likely to experience an adverse reaction after vaccination regardless of the type of shot, with one exception, the researchers found.
Across all vaccine brands, people with prior COVID-19 were 2.6 times as likely after dose one to suffer an adverse reaction, according to the new study. Such people are commonly known as having a type of protection known as natural immunity after recovery.
People with previous COVID-19 were also 1.25 times as likely after dose 2 to experience an adverse reaction.
The findings held true across all vaccine types following dose one.
Of the female participants who received the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, for instance, 82 percent who had COVID-19 previously experienced an adverse reaction after their first dose, compared to 59 percent of females who did not have prior COVID-19.
The only exception to the trend was among males who received a second AstraZeneca dose. The percentage of males who suffered an adverse reaction was higher, 33 percent to 24 percent, among those without a COVID-19 history.
“Participants who had a prior SARS-CoV-2 infection (confirmed with a positive test) experienced at least one adverse reaction more often after the 1st dose compared to participants who did not have prior COVID-19. This pattern was observed in both men and women and across vaccine brands,” Florence van Hunsel, an epidemiologist with the Netherlands Pharmacovigilance Centre Lareb, and her co-authors wrote.
There were only slightly higher odds of the naturally immune suffering an adverse reaction following receipt of a Pfizer or Moderna booster, the researchers also found.
The researchers performed what’s known as a cohort event monitoring study, following 29,387 participants as they received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. The participants live in a European country such as Belgium, France, or Slovakia.
Overall, three-quarters of the participants reported at least one adverse reaction, although some were minor such as injection site pain.
Adverse reactions described as serious were reported by 0.24 percent of people who received a first or second dose and 0.26 percent for people who received a booster. Different examples of serious reactions were not listed in the study.
Participants were only specifically asked to record a range of minor adverse reactions (ADRs). They could provide details of other reactions in free text form.
“The unsolicited events were manually assessed and coded, and the seriousness was classified based on international criteria,” researchers said.
The free text answers were not provided by researchers in the paper.
“The authors note, ‘In this manuscript, the focus was not on serious ADRs and adverse events of special interest.’” Yet, in their highlights section they state, “The percentage of serious ADRs in the study is low for 1st and 2nd vaccination and booster.”
Dr. Joel Wallskog, co-chair of the group React19, which advocates for people who were injured by vaccines, told The Epoch Times: “It is intellectually dishonest to set out to study minor adverse events after COVID-19 vaccination then make conclusions about the frequency of serious adverse events. They also fail to provide the free text data.” He added that the paper showed “yet another study that is in my opinion, deficient by design.”
Ms. Hunsel did not respond to a request for comment.
She and other researchers listed limitations in the paper, including how they did not provide data broken down by country.
The paper was published by the journal Vaccine on March 6.
The study was funded by the European Medicines Agency and the Dutch government.
No authors declared conflicts of interest.
Some previous papers have also found that people with prior COVID-19 infection had more adverse events following COVID-19 vaccination, including a 2021 paper from French researchers. A U.S. study identified prior COVID-19 as a predictor of the severity of side effects.
Some other studies have determined COVID-19 vaccines confer little or no benefit to people with a history of infection, including those who had received a primary series.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention still recommends people who recovered from COVID-19 receive a COVID-19 vaccine, although a number of other health authorities have stopped recommending the shot for people who have prior COVID-19.
Another New Study
In another new paper, South Korean researchers outlined how they found people were more likely to report certain adverse reactions after COVID-19 vaccination than after receipt of another vaccine.
The reporting of myocarditis, a form of heart inflammation, or pericarditis, a related condition, was nearly 20 times as high among children as the reporting odds following receipt of all other vaccines, the researchers found.
The reporting odds were also much higher for multisystem inflammatory syndrome or Kawasaki disease among adolescent COVID-19 recipients.
Researchers analyzed reports made to VigiBase, which is run by the World Health Organization.
“Based on our results, close monitoring for these rare but serious inflammatory reactions after COVID-19 vaccination among adolescents until definitive causal relationship can be established,” the researchers wrote.
The study was published by the Journal of Korean Medical Science in its March edition.
Limitations include VigiBase receiving reports of problems, with some reports going unconfirmed.
Funding came from the South Korean government. One author reported receiving grants from pharmaceutical companies, including Pfizer.
Uncategorized
Key shipping company files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy
The Illinois-based general freight trucking company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy to reorganize.
Share this:
The U.S. trucking industry has had a difficult beginning of the year for 2024 with several logistics companies filing for bankruptcy to seek either a Chapter 7 liquidation or Chapter 11 reorganization.
The Covid-19 pandemic caused a lot of supply chain issues for logistics companies and also created a shortage of truck drivers as many left the business for other occupations. Shipping companies, in the meantime, have had extreme difficulty recruiting new drivers for thousands of unfilled jobs.
Related: Tesla rival’s filing reveals Chapter 11 bankruptcy is possible
Freight forwarder company Boateng Logistics joined a growing list of shipping companies that permanently shuttered their businesses as the firm on Feb. 22 filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy with plans to liquidate.
The Carlsbad, Calif., logistics company filed its petition in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of California listing assets up to $50,000 and and $1 million to $10 million in liabilities. Court papers said it owed millions of dollars in liabilities to trucking, logistics and factoring companies. The company filed bankruptcy before any creditors could take legal action.
Lawsuits force companies to liquidate in bankruptcy
Lawsuits, however, can force companies to file bankruptcy, which was the case for J.J. & Sons Logistics of Clint, Texas, which on Jan. 22 filed for Chapter 7 liquidation in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Western District of Texas. The company filed bankruptcy four days before the scheduled start of a trial for a wrongful death lawsuit filed by the family of a former company truck driver who had died from drowning in 2016.
California-based logistics company Wise Choice Trans Corp. shut down operations and filed for Chapter 7 liquidation on Jan. 4 in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of California, listing $1 million to $10 million in assets and liabilities.
The Hayward, Calif., third-party logistics company, founded in 2009, provided final mile, less-than-truckload and full truckload services, as well as warehouse and fulfillment services in the San Francisco Bay Area.
The Chapter 7 filing also implemented an automatic stay against all legal proceedings, as the company listed its involvement in four legal actions that were ongoing or concluded. Court papers reportedly did not list amounts for damages.
In some cases, debtors don't have to take a drastic action, such as a liquidation, and can instead file a Chapter 11 reorganization.
Shutterstock
Nationwide Cargo seeks to reorganize its business
Nationwide Cargo Inc., a general freight trucking company that also hauls fresh produce and meat, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Illinois with plans to reorganize its business.
The East Dundee, Ill., shipping company listed $1 million to $10 million in assets and $10 million to $50 million in liabilities in its petition and said funds will not be available to pay unsecured creditors. The company operates with 183 trucks and 171 drivers, FreightWaves reported.
Nationwide Cargo's three largest secured creditors in the petition were Equify Financial LLC (owed about $3.5 million,) Commercial Credit Group (owed about $1.8 million) and Continental Bank NA (owed about $676,000.)
The shipping company reported gross revenue of about $34 million in 2022 and about $40 million in 2023. From Jan. 1 until its petition date, the company generated $9.3 million in gross revenue.
Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024
bankruptcy pandemic covid-19 stocksUncategorized
Key shipping company files Chapter 11 bankruptcy
The Illinois-based general freight trucking company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy to reorganize.
Share this:
The U.S. trucking industry has had a difficult beginning of the year for 2024 with several logistics companies filing for bankruptcy to seek either a Chapter 7 liquidation or Chapter 11 reorganization.
The Covid-19 pandemic caused a lot of supply chain issues for logistics companies and also created a shortage of truck drivers as many left the business for other occupations. Shipping companies, in the meantime, have had extreme difficulty recruiting new drivers for thousands of unfilled jobs.
Related: Tesla rival’s filing reveals Chapter 11 bankruptcy is possible
Freight forwarder company Boateng Logistics joined a growing list of shipping companies that permanently shuttered their businesses as the firm on Feb. 22 filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy with plans to liquidate.
The Carlsbad, Calif., logistics company filed its petition in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of California listing assets up to $50,000 and and $1 million to $10 million in liabilities. Court papers said it owed millions of dollars in liabilities to trucking, logistics and factoring companies. The company filed bankruptcy before any creditors could take legal action.
Lawsuits force companies to liquidate in bankruptcy
Lawsuits, however, can force companies to file bankruptcy, which was the case for J.J. & Sons Logistics of Clint, Texas, which on Jan. 22 filed for Chapter 7 liquidation in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Western District of Texas. The company filed bankruptcy four days before the scheduled start of a trial for a wrongful death lawsuit filed by the family of a former company truck driver who had died from drowning in 2016.
California-based logistics company Wise Choice Trans Corp. shut down operations and filed for Chapter 7 liquidation on Jan. 4 in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of California, listing $1 million to $10 million in assets and liabilities.
The Hayward, Calif., third-party logistics company, founded in 2009, provided final mile, less-than-truckload and full truckload services, as well as warehouse and fulfillment services in the San Francisco Bay Area.
The Chapter 7 filing also implemented an automatic stay against all legal proceedings, as the company listed its involvement in four legal actions that were ongoing or concluded. Court papers reportedly did not list amounts for damages.
In some cases, debtors don't have to take a drastic action, such as a liquidation, and can instead file a Chapter 11 reorganization.
Shutterstock
Nationwide Cargo seeks to reorganize its business
Nationwide Cargo Inc., a general freight trucking company that also hauls fresh produce and meat, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Illinois with plans to reorganize its business.
The East Dundee, Ill., shipping company listed $1 million to $10 million in assets and $10 million to $50 million in liabilities in its petition and said funds will not be available to pay unsecured creditors. The company operates with 183 trucks and 171 drivers, FreightWaves reported.
Nationwide Cargo's three largest secured creditors in the petition were Equify Financial LLC (owed about $3.5 million,) Commercial Credit Group (owed about $1.8 million) and Continental Bank NA (owed about $676,000.)
The shipping company reported gross revenue of about $34 million in 2022 and about $40 million in 2023. From Jan. 1 until its petition date, the company generated $9.3 million in gross revenue.
Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024
bankruptcy pandemic covid-19 stocks
IFM’s Hat Trick and Reflections On Option-To-Buy M&A
Key shipping company files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy
Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
Net Zero, The Digital Panopticon, & The Future Of Food
Pharma industry reputation remains steady at a ‘new normal’ after Covid, Harris Poll finds
These Cities Have The Highest (And Lowest) Share Of Unaffordable Neighborhoods In 2024
For-profit nursing homes are cutting corners on safety and draining resources with financial shenanigans − especially at midsize chains that dodge public scrutiny
Tight inventory and frustrated buyers challenge agents in Virginia
The Question You Should Ask Whenever You’re Wrong
Trump nearly derailed democracy once − here’s what to watch out for in reelection campaign
-
Uncategorized3 weeks agoAll Of The Elements Are In Place For An Economic Crisis Of Staggering Proportions
-
International7 days agoEyePoint poaches medical chief from Apellis; Sandoz CFO, longtime BioNTech exec to retire
-
Uncategorized4 weeks agoCalifornia Counties Could Be Forced To Pay $300 Million To Cover COVID-Era Program
-
Uncategorized3 weeks agoApparel Retailer Express Moving Toward Bankruptcy
-
Uncategorized4 weeks agoIndustrial Production Decreased 0.1% in January
-
International7 days agoWalmart launches clever answer to Target’s new membership program
-
Uncategorized4 weeks agoRFK Jr: The Wuhan Cover-Up & The Rise Of The Biowarfare-Industrial Complex
-
Spread & Containment2 days ago
IFM’s Hat Trick and Reflections On Option-To-Buy M&A