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We Won’t Be Fooled Again… Inflation Is Most Definitely Not “Under Control”
We Won’t Be Fooled Again… Inflation Is Most Definitely Not "Under Control"
Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,
Inflation…
Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,
Inflation is going down! Let’s all celebrate! We all knew that when the Federal Reserve began aggressively hiking interest rates it would have an impact on inflation. Higher rates have caused a new housing crash, they have crushed the tech industry, and they have sparked the biggest wave of layoffs that we have seen since the Great Recession. We have entered a significant economic downturn, so it was inevitable that the annual rate of inflation would start to moderate. But as I will explain below, that doesn’t mean that inflation is now “under control”. The real rate of inflation is much higher than we are being told, and people all over the country are being absolutely crushed by the rising cost of living.
Let’s start with the good news first. According to the Labor Department, the annual rate of inflation is rising at the slowest pace since October 2021…
Consumer prices increased 6.5% from a year earlier, down from 7.1% in November and a 40-year high of 9.1% in June, according to the Labor Department’s consumer price index, a measurement of what people pay for goods and services, which labor released on Thursday.
The rise last month marks the slowest annual gain since October 2021 and matches economists’ estimates.
Okay, but Fox Business has just reminded us that the annual rate of inflation “remains about three times higher than the pre-pandemic average”…
Still, inflation remains about three times higher than the pre-pandemic average, underscoring the persistent financial burden placed on millions of U.S. households by high prices.
So we are still definitely in a high inflation environment.
But let’s dig deeper.
Most Americans don’t realize that the way that the inflation rate is calculated has literally been changed more than two dozen times since 1980.
And every time it has been changed, the goal has been to make inflation appear to be lower than it actually is.
If the rate of inflation was still calculated the way that it was back in 1980, the real rate of inflation would be close to 15 percent right now.
That would be comparable to the peak inflation that we witnessed during the Jimmy Carter era.
So don’t let anyone try to convince you that inflation is “low” or “under control” or anything like that.
The main reason why the rate of inflation moderated somewhat during the month of December is because energy prices have been falling…
Americans saw some real reprieve last month in the form of lower energy costs, which fell 6.1% in December. Gas prices dropped 12.5% over the month, the biggest contributor to the overall headline decline in inflation in December.
That is great news, but it is already being projected that gas prices will rise significantly later this year.
And once war in the Middle East erupts, gas prices will go to heights that most people never even dreamed was possible.
Meanwhile, services inflation has just spiked to a level that we haven’t seen in decades.
The cost of living has become extremely oppressive, and the American people are becoming increasingly frustrated by this.
I would like to share a video with you that illustrates what I am talking about.
The woman in this video doesn’t understand all of the numbers that I have just shared in this article. All she knows is that when she goes to the grocery store, prices are way higher than they once were. This video contains some graphic language, and I apologize for that in advance. But I want you to see her anger, because this is how millions upon millions of Americans are feeling about inflation right now.
$120,000 combined household income and can barely afford groceries… pic.twitter.com/qjune1aKyk
— Finance L’s (@TerribleFinance) January 10, 2023
Would you like to be the one that tries to convince her that inflation is “under control” now?
Sadly, the truth is that over the past few years the cost of living has been rising faster than our paychecks have, and so U.S. families have steadily been getting poorer…
The average American family has lost the equivalent of more than a month’s salary in annual income since President Biden took office as high inflation and rising interest rates eat away at their finances, according to research by the Heritage Foundation.
Experts at the conservative think tank analyzed consumer prices and interest rates and found in their latest report released Thursday that the average American household has lost the equivalent of $7,400 in annual income since Biden’s inauguration Jan. 20, 2021. The income loss represents an increase of $200 from September, when the think tank’s research found a $7,200 decline in annual income for the average American household dating back to the start of Biden’s term.
Prior to the pandemic, we were in a low inflation and low interest rate environment.
Now that the Federal Reserve has dramatically hiked interest rates, we now find ourselves in a high inflation and high interest rate environment.
And higher interest rates are also hammering our standard of living…
While their elected representatives in D.C. struggle to pay the nation’s bills, Americans are facing a similar challenge as their household budgets are stretched thin due to inflation and higher borrowing costs. Those financial challenges led more than one-third of households to rely on credit cards or loans to buy necessities in December. Average credit card interest rates reached a new record high of 19.14% APR compared to a Bankrate.com database.
“Americans are increasingly relying on credit cards to make it from paycheck to paycheck, resulting in higher levels of indebtedness. Rising credit card balances in an era of rising interest rates is a path to insolvency,” Antoni told FOX Business. “The average interest rate on credit cards is now around 20 percent while half of Americans cannot pay off their credit cards each month, and balances are growing at a 16 percent annual rate.”
We are getting hit from both ends.
We have to pay more to buy the things that we need, and we have to pay higher interest rates when we borrow money to pay for those things.
The Federal Reserve has lost control, and we are careening toward the sort of historic economic crisis that I have been warning about for years.
But those that are under the spell of the corporate media will continue to assume that everything is fine and that our leaders have a plan to get us out of this mess.
I truly wish that was true.
Unfortunately, the short-term economic outlook is extremely dismal, and prominent voices all over Wall Street are warning that 2023 will be a really rough year.
* * *
It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.
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Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more
New Zillow research suggests the spring home shopping season may see a second wave this summer if mortgage rates fall
The post Homes listed for sale in…
- A Zillow analysis of 2023 home sales finds homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more.
- The best time to list a home for sale is a month later than it was in 2019, likely driven by mortgage rates.
- The best time to list can be as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York and Philadelphia.
Spring home sellers looking to maximize their sale price may want to wait it out and list their home for sale in the first half of June. A new Zillow® analysis of 2023 sales found that homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more, a $7,700 boost on a typical U.S. home.
The best time to list consistently had been early May in the years leading up to the pandemic. The shift to June suggests mortgage rates are strongly influencing demand on top of the usual seasonality that brings buyers to the market in the spring. This home-shopping season is poised to follow a similar pattern as that in 2023, with the potential for a second wave if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates midyear or later.
The 2.3% sale price premium registered last June followed the first spring in more than 15 years with mortgage rates over 6% on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. The high rates put home buyers on the back foot, and as rates continued upward through May, they were still reassessing and less likely to bid boldly. In June, however, rates pulled back a little from 6.79% to 6.67%, which likely presented an opportunity for determined buyers heading into summer. More buyers understood their market position and could afford to transact, boosting competition and sale prices.
The old logic was that sellers could earn a premium by listing in late spring, when search activity hit its peak. Now, with persistently low inventory, mortgage rate fluctuations make their own seasonality. First-time home buyers who are on the edge of qualifying for a home loan may dip in and out of the market, depending on what’s happening with rates. It is almost certain the Federal Reserve will push back any interest-rate cuts to mid-2024 at the earliest. If mortgage rates follow, that could bring another surge of buyers later this year.
Mortgage rates have been impacting affordability and sale prices since they began rising rapidly two years ago. In 2022, sellers nationwide saw the highest sale premium when they listed their home in late March, right before rates barreled past 5% and continued climbing.
Zillow’s research finds the best time to list can vary widely by metropolitan area. In 2023, it was as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York. Thirty of the top 35 largest metro areas saw for-sale listings command the highest sale prices between May and early July last year.
Zillow also found a wide range in the sale price premiums associated with homes listed during those peak periods. At the hottest time of the year in San Jose, homes sold for 5.5% more, a $88,000 boost on a typical home. Meanwhile, homes in San Antonio sold for 1.9% more during that same time period.
Metropolitan Area | Best Time to List | Price Premium | Dollar Boost |
United States | First half of June | 2.3% | $7,700 |
New York, NY | First half of July | 2.4% | $15,500 |
Los Angeles, CA | First half of May | 4.1% | $39,300 |
Chicago, IL | First half of June | 2.8% | $8,800 |
Dallas, TX | First half of June | 2.5% | $9,200 |
Houston, TX | Second half of April | 2.0% | $6,200 |
Washington, DC | Second half of June | 2.2% | $12,700 |
Philadelphia, PA | First half of July | 2.4% | $8,200 |
Miami, FL | First half of June | 2.3% | $12,900 |
Atlanta, GA | Second half of June | 2.3% | $8,700 |
Boston, MA | Second half of May | 3.5% | $23,600 |
Phoenix, AZ | First half of June | 3.2% | $14,700 |
San Francisco, CA | Second half of February | 4.2% | $50,300 |
Riverside, CA | First half of May | 2.7% | $15,600 |
Detroit, MI | First half of July | 3.3% | $7,900 |
Seattle, WA | First half of June | 4.3% | $31,500 |
Minneapolis, MN | Second half of May | 3.7% | $13,400 |
San Diego, CA | Second half of April | 3.1% | $29,600 |
Tampa, FL | Second half of June | 2.1% | $8,000 |
Denver, CO | Second half of May | 2.9% | $16,900 |
Baltimore, MD | First half of July | 2.2% | $8,200 |
St. Louis, MO | First half of June | 2.9% | $7,000 |
Orlando, FL | First half of June | 2.2% | $8,700 |
Charlotte, NC | Second half of May | 3.0% | $11,000 |
San Antonio, TX | First half of June | 1.9% | $5,400 |
Portland, OR | Second half of April | 2.6% | $14,300 |
Sacramento, CA | First half of June | 3.2% | $17,900 |
Pittsburgh, PA | Second half of June | 2.3% | $4,700 |
Cincinnati, OH | Second half of April | 2.7% | $7,500 |
Austin, TX | Second half of May | 2.8% | $12,600 |
Las Vegas, NV | First half of June | 3.4% | $14,600 |
Kansas City, MO | Second half of May | 2.5% | $7,300 |
Columbus, OH | Second half of June | 3.3% | $10,400 |
Indianapolis, IN | First half of July | 3.0% | $8,100 |
Cleveland, OH | First half of July | 3.4% | $7,400 |
San Jose, CA | First half of June | 5.5% | $88,400 |
The post Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more appeared first on Zillow Research.
federal reserve pandemic home sales mortgage rates interest ratesUncategorized
February Employment Situation
By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…
By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert
The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.
Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.
Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.
The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.
The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.
Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.
As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.
Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.
The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.
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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes
Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.
Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.
The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.
From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250
Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.
1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.
2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.
Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.
3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too
Total employment data
4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels.
From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.
Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:
In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:
- Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
- High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
- Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
- Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.
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