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“Wake Up… Welcome To Reality In 2022”

"Wake Up… Welcome To Reality In 2022"

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“Fair fa’ yer honest sonsie face, great chieftain o’ the puddin race .”

After yesterday’s dramatic market roller-coaster, traders are wondering…

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"Wake Up... Welcome To Reality In 2022"

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“Fair fa’ yer honest sonsie face, great chieftain o’ the puddin race .”

After yesterday’s dramatic market roller-coaster, traders are wondering if it’s a buy-the-dip moment. They probably will. But the narrative has reversed. The improbable tech stocks into substantial correction territory have a considerable way still to fall if history is any guide.

 

Yesterday, was an extraordinary day…. which we will all-to-soon forget.

 

As European markets closed last night it looked like markets had surrendered, down some 5%. More than a few chums were wondering if “this is it”. Apparently, the massive volumes in the morning were driven by retail investors who, after fretting about their loss-making positions for the whole weekend, decided to dump stock. In the afternoon, the selling reversed as brave buyers reckoned they were smarter, reckoned stocks looked cheap, and for all the usual reasons the market recovered – one of the biggest upside reversals in recent history…

Volatility is back with a vengeance. Yay! We love it… Don’t trust it.

This morning.. Lot’s of noise, but I am not hearing that many fact-based calls of a “buying window” or that stocks look suddenly cheap. The early morning vibe is its still “speculative” out there – and that markets will go up because that’s what they’d done on every dip since 2009.

I am definitely not about to pull on my size 12 Buying Boots. I am going to wait a while longer to see how this plays out. I have cash in the account – waiting, waiting, confident the right moment to pile-in is coming… but I am utterly unconvinced it has arrived… And when I do re-enter the market, it will be very selective.

Instead… this morning I confidently expect some market dither in earnest discussion of the Dead Cat Bounce theory of markets – a magnificent simile from crashing markets back in 1987 based upon the observation that if you throw a deceased feline from a high enough point it will bounce, but not a lot. Exactly who had time to do that experiment we shall never know, but it is scientific method and observation that moves us forward….

The problem is: the market has not really moved on. It is still thinking like it’s a random year between 2008-2021 when central banks were playing the “juice the markets” game. Wake up. Welcome to reality – its 2022.

This morning you are going to open your newspapers, scan through analyst reports and commentary like the Morning Porridge, and read earnest debates about where the market goes in the next hours, days, weeks and maybe months. Teenage scribblers and learned market sages will be variously telling you it’s the worst of times because:

  • Tightening monetary policy, rising interest rates, the expected rise in bond yields, rising inflation, geopolitical tension, supply chain weakness, and looming recession spell further sell-offs to come,

Or, they might be raving about how positive the coming best of times look on;

  • Post pandemic recovery, repressed demand, that stocks look better than bonds during inflationary growth phases, and long-term growth prospects are rising as the last 10-years of productivity inventiveness is innovated (phew, what a phrase!) will lead to long-term market upside.

The immediate tone will be set by this week’s Fed meeting, which will be gleaned for clues on rate timing, but is unlikely to do anything for the market in terms of convincing players the Fed stands ready to accommodate a market sell off.

Take yer pick… I shall stick with things are “never as bad as you fear, but seldom as good as you hope”, and hang back from the market waiting for real bargains.

CNBC’s populist Jim Cramer reckons the market is approaching an “investible bottom”, on the basis its negative headlines currently leading the narrative. These can quickly turnaround. He noted:

  • There is “a sickening level of negativity” and a bear outlook indicator of surveyed investors climbed from 38% to 47% over a week.

  • That’s reinforced by an increasing number of analyst downgrades.

  • The divergence between strong and weak earnings highlights swimmers and sinkers.

Market’s always overreact on the downside… which is why they create opportunity! Positive signals in a tumbling market often attract speculative buy-the-dip bids. Occasionally, they look strong enough to generate a following, attracting the hot money element, and the algo buy programmes. That may be what happened on Monday afternoon when the signals suddenly flipped positive after the midday bottom.

But all these analysts and market talking heads arguing about when to pile in or out of the market are missing a FUNDAMENTAL POINT. Things have changed.

I am not a uber-bear. The outlook for the global economy will be long-term rosy. History tells us that.

To get there on the constantly rising wave of human wealth, the market has periodic phases of Euphoric Madness. These moments tend to auto-correct. The last 14 years since 2008 have seen one of the longest, most Eurphoric markets in history – with all financial assets (bonds and stocks) inflated and fuelled by easy money, cheap capital and monetary experimentation by central banks. The building head of speculation was led by a pied-piper promising unlimited market riches, spawning cryptos, memes, Spacs and whatever other unlikely get-rich schemes could be shown.

I would reckon at least 60% of current market participants have never seen any other kind of market.

Now we have entered a correction phase. The stage when speculation is itself swallowed…

What is clear is the market is not crashing as a single wave – there is significant divergence between Good, Bad, Ugly and Fugly stocks. Over a quarter of the S&P 500 are down more than 20% – the worst being Moderna (down 43%) and Netflix (down 40%). There is now clear differentiation between fundamentally strongly positioned, high margin dividend stocks and those with little to show except profitless scale in a market evolving past them. It’s happened before, and it will happen again.

We are maybe wrong to talk about stock market bubbles? The real issue is that they comprise lots of tiny little bubbles – the individual stocks that speculation and over-fervid belief has whipped up to frenzied levels. The sound of these mini-bubbles popping, leaving the market champagne flat, is what’s now occurring. There are plenty of stocks still to pop.

I’ve referenced this many times, looking back to how it took considerable time for prices to settle after the Dot.com crash in March 2000. The correction won’t be done overnight – it might take years for us to properly value the over-priced inflated expectations the last few years has attached to so many improbable tech stocks. If you buy-the-dip today in a long-term correction stock you will be holding a ticking bomb.

We will know it’s begun when the improbable tech stocks correct 20-30% – which has pretty much happened. And the next stage is not a buy-the-dip opportunity, but long-term decline down to fair value, which for many of these stocks will be default and bankruptcy. If you haven’t already dumped ARK, then get on the phone….

Meanwhile, how long does anyone give the relatively new President of El Salvador – Nayib buy-the-dip Bukele? He was on the wires saying Bitcoin is really cheap, and spent another $15 mm of his nation’s precious dollar reserves scooping up the “cheap” but tumbling cryptocon.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/25/2022 - 13:44

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Another major retailer cracks down on self-checkout at its stores

The value retailer is discouraging theft at its self-checkout counters by introducing more associate-assisted checkout transactions in its stores.

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Huge retail chains like Walmart  (WMT) , Target  (TGT) , CVS  (CVS) and others have faced a high amount of retail theft, or what they call inventory shrink, since 2020 and have been implementing measures to eliminate those costly losses.

Among the most common measures used by Walmart, Target and some others has been locking up popular items behind glass cases to prevent shoplifting. Customers shopping at these stores have encountered a lot of their favorite products, such as cosmetics, shampoo, over-the-counter drugs and even laundry detergent locked up in those cases.

Related: Target limits self-checkout, makes a change customers will love

Shoppers need to either push a button near the product to alert a worker to unlock the case or, in some situations, run around the store looking for a worker with the proper key to open the case. It's a very inconvenient problem for shoppers, and not all stores are consistent with their lockup policies.

For example, one Walmart store might lock up some of their instant coffee products, while another cross-town Walmart location, or even a Target competitor, doesn't lock up any coffee.

Retail stores have also implemented new self-checkout rules to discourage inventory shrink, but again, stores are inconsistent with their rules. Walmart stores have a 20 items or less rule for their self-checkout lanes to try to steer shoppers with more items to checkout clerks that might help reduce the occurrence of theft. But neither customers, nor workers seem to be observing that rule. Target on March 17 implemented a new 10 items or fewer rule in its self-checkout lanes, but we'll see if anyone enforces it.

These self-checkout requirements are also supposed to speed up the checkout process, but that only works if all the self-check registers are working and an adequate amount of checkout clerks are working registers as well.

The next step for retailers in addressing inventory shrink at self-checkout would be to eliminate self-check altogether.

Shopping in a Five Below store.

Pat Greenhouse/The Boston Globe via Getty Images

Five Below cuts back on self-checkout lanes 

After finishing the fourth quarter of 2023 with a "higher-than-planned shrink," or higher level of theft than expected in its stores, value retailer Five Below  (FIVE)  has implemented associate-assisted checkout in all of its stores for 2024, CEO Joel Anderson said on the company's earnings call on March 20.

"In addition, in our high-shrink stores, the primary option for checkout is more of the traditional, over-the-counter associate checkout," Anderson said. "We expect to have 75% of our transactions chain-wide assisted by an associate with a goal of 100% in our highest shrink, highest-risk stores to be fully transacted by an associate."

The retailer also checks receipts and adds guards

"Additionally, in those stores, we’re implementing further mitigation efforts, including receipt checking, additional store payroll and guards. We intend to measure progress as soon as Q2 when we perform a limited number of store counts," Anderson said.

Five Below tested several inventory shrink mitigation initiatives late in the third quarter and into the fourth quarter of 2023, which included product-related tests, front-end initiatives and guard programs, Anderson said in the earnings call. He said the most significant change the Philadelphia-based company made across most of the chain was to limit the number of self-checkout registers that were open, while positioning an associate upfront to further assist customers.

Anderson said he is confident the company's measures will help it over time, but the company has not included any financial impact for shrink reduction in its 2024 guidance. The company, however will aggressively pursue returning to pre-pandemic levels of shrink or offsetting the impact over the next few years, he said.

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CCP-Linked Virologist Fired After Transferring Ebola From Winnipeg To Wuhan Resurfaces In China – And Is Collaborating With Military Scientists

CCP-Linked Virologist Fired After Transferring Ebola From Winnipeg To Wuhan Resurfaces In China – And Is Collaborating With Military Scientists

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CCP-Linked Virologist Fired After Transferring Ebola From Winnipeg To Wuhan Resurfaces In China - And Is Collaborating With Military Scientists

A virologist who had a "clandestine relationship" with Chinese agents and was subsequently fired by the Trudeau government has popped back up in China - where she's conducting research with Chinese military scientists and other virology researchers, including at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, where she's allegedly studying antibodies for coronavirus, as well as the deadly Ebola and Niaph viruses, the Globe and Mail reports.

Xiangguo Qiu and her husband Keding Cheng were fired from the National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg, Canada and stripped of their security clearances in July of 2019.

Declassified documents tabled in the House of Commons on Feb. 28 show the couple had provided confidential scientific information to China and posed a credible security threat to the country, according to the Canadian Security Intelligence Service.

The Globe found that Dr. Qiu’s name appears on four Chinese patent filings since 2020, two with the Wuhan Institute of Virology whose work on bat coronaviruses has placed it at the centre of concerns that it played a role in the spread of COVID-19 – and two with the University of Science and Technology of China, or USTC. The patents relate to antibodies against Nipah virus and work related to nanobodies, including against coronaviruses. -Globe and Mail

Canadian authorities began questioning the pair's loyalty, as well as the potential for coercion or exploitation by a foreign entity, according to more than 600 pages of documents reported by The Counter Signal.

Highlights (via CTVNews.ca):

  • Qiu and Cheng were escorted out of Winnipeg's National Microbiology Laboratory in July 2019 and subsequently fired in January 2021.
  • The pair transferred deadly Ebola and Henipah viruses to China's Wuhan Institute of Virology in March 2019.
  • The Canadian Security Intelligence Service assessed that Qiu repeatedly lied about the extent of her work with institutions of the Chinese government and refused to admit involvement in various Chinese programs, even when evidence was presented to her.
  • [D]espite being given every opportunity in her interviews to describe her association with Chinese entities, "Ms. Qiu continued to make blanket denials, feign ignorance or tell outright lies."
  • A November 2020 Public Health Agency of Canada report on Qiu says investigators "weighed the adverse information and are in agreement with the CSIS assessment."
  • A Public Health Agency report on Cheng's activities says he allowed restricted visitors to work in laboratories unescorted and on at least two occasions did not prevent the unauthorized removal of laboratory materials.
  • Cheng was not forthcoming about his activities and collaborations with people from government agencies "of another country, namely members of the People's Republic of China."

Following their firings, Qiu returned to China despite it being under a pandemic travel lockdown until January, 2023.

"It’s very likely that she received quite preferential treatment in China on the basis that she’s proven herself. She’s done a very good job for the government of China," said Brendan Walker-Munro, senior research fellow at Australia’s University of Queensland Law School. "She’s promoted their interests abroad. She’s returned information that is credibly useful to China and to its ongoing research."

More via the Globe and Mail;

Documents reviewed by The Globe show that Dr. Qiu is most closely aligned with the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) in Hefei. In March, 2023, a document posted by a Chinese pharmaceutical company listed Dr. Qiu as second amongst “major completion personnel” on a project awarded by the Chinese Preventive Medicine Association for study related to an anti-Ebola virus therapeutic antibody. Most of the other completion personnel were associated with the Chinese People’s Liberation Army.

USTC was founded by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and initially established to build up Chinese scientific expertise useful to the military, which at the time was pursuing technology to build satellites, intercontinental ballistic missiles and atomic bombs. The university has continued to maintain close military ties.

The document says Dr. Qiu works for USTC. Jin Tengchuan, the principal investigator at the Laboratory of Structural Immunology at USTC, lists her as a co-inventor on a patent. Mr. Jin did not respond to requests for comment.

A person who answered the phone at USTC told The Globe, “I don’t have any information about this teacher.”

In 2012, USTC signed a strategic co-operation agreement with the Army Engineering University of the People’s Liberation Army, designed to strengthen research on cutting-edge technology useful for communications, weaponry and other national-defence priorities.

Dr. Qiu is also listed as a 2019 doctoral supervisor for students studying virology at Hebei Medical University.

Well, that makes me wonder what circumstances she was under when she emigrated to Canada. Why did she come?” asked Earl Brown, a professor emeritus of biochemistry, microbiology and immunology at the University of Ottawa’s faculty of medicine who has worked extensively in China in the past. “People leave for more freedom from China, or to make more money. But China keeps tabs on most people so I am not sure if she came over to infiltrate or whether she came and the infiltration happened later through contact with China.”

It may be impossible to answer that question. Three former colleagues at the National Microbiolgy Lab have indicated that Dr. Qiu and her husband were diligent and pleasant to deal with, but largely kept to themselves outside of work. They say Dr. Qiu was a brilliant scientist with a strong work ethic, although her English was weak. The Globe is not identifying the three who did not want to be named.

Dr. Qiu is a medical doctor from Tianjin, China, who came to Canada for graduate studies in 1996. She started at the University of Manitoba, but began working at the national lab as a research scientist in 2006, working her way up to become head of the vaccine development and antiviral therapies section in the National Microbiology Laboratory’s special pathogens program.

She was also part of the team that helped develop ZMapp, a treatment for the deadly Ebola virus, which killed more than 11,000 people in West Africa between 2014 and 2016.

“My sense is this was part of a larger strategy by China to get access to our innovation system,” said Filippa Lentzos, an associate professor of science and international security at King’s College London. “It was a way for them to to find out what was going on in Canada’s premier lab.”

Initially trained as a medical doctor, Dr. Qiu graduated in 1985 from Hebei University in the coastal city of Tianjin, which lies southeast of Beijing. Dr. Qiu went on to obtain her master of science degree in immunology at Tianjin Medical University in 1990.

Her career at Canada’s top infectious disease lab in Winnipeg began in 2003, only four years after Ottawa opened this biosafety level 4 facility at the Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health.

Over time, she built up a reputation for academic collaboration, particularly with China. It was welcomed by management who felt her work was helping build a name internationally for the National Microbiology Lab.

By the time Canadian officials intervened in 2018 and began investigating, documents show, Dr. Qiu was running 44 separate projects at the Winnipeg lab, an uncommonly large workload.

Her work with former colleague and microbiologist Gary Kobinger vaulted Dr. Qiu into the international spotlight. The pair developed a treatment for Ebola, one that in its first human application led to the full recovery of 27 patients with the infection during a 2014 outbreak in Liberia.

Mr. Kobinger’s career continued to soar and he is now director of the Galveston National Laboratory, a renowned biosafety level 4 facility in Texas. In 2022, he told The Globe that it was “heartbreaking” to see what had happened to his colleague. He declined to speak for this article.

“She had lost a lot of weight with all the stress. She was so convinced that this was all a misunderstanding … and she would go back to her job,” he said in 2022. “ Her career has been destroyed with all this. She was one of the top female Canadian scientists of virology and Canada has lost that.”

Over a period of 13 months, though, the Chinese-Canadian microbiologist and her biologist husband’s lives were turned upside down.

She went from being feted at Ottawa’s Rideau Hall with a Governor-General’s Award in May, 2018, to being locked out of the Winnipeg lab in July, 2019 – the high-security facility where she had made her name as a scientist in Canada. By January, 2021, she and Mr. Cheng were fired.

Last month, after being pressed into explaining what happened, the Canadian government finally disclosed the reasons for this extraordinary dismissal: CSIS found the pair had lied about and hid their co-operation with China from Ottawa.

A big question remains following their departure: Why would Dr. Qiu risk her career, including the stature associated with developing an Ebola treatment, for China?

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/21/2024 - 18:40

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You can now enter this country without a passport

Singapore has been on a larger push to speed up the flow of tourists with digital immigration clearance.

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In the fall of 2023, the city-state of Singapore announced that it was working on end-to-end biometrics that would allow travelers passing through its Changi Airport to check into flights, drop off bags and even leave and exit the country without a passport.

The latter is the most technologically advanced step of them all because not all countries issue passports with the same biometrics while immigration laws leave fewer room for mistakes about who enters the country.

Related: A country just went visa-free for visitors with any passport

That said, Singapore is one step closer to instituting passport-free travel by testing it at its land border with Malaysia. The two countries have two border checkpoints, Woodlands and Tuas, and as of March 20 those entering in Singapore by car are able to show a QR code that they generate through the government’s MyICA app instead of the passport.

A photograph captures Singapore's Tuas land border with Malaysia.

Here is who is now able to enter Singapore passport-free

The latter will be available to citizens of Singapore, permanent residents and tourists who have already entered the country once with their current passport. The government app pulls data from one's passport and shows the border officer the conditions of one's entry clearance already recorded in the system.

More Travel:

While not truly passport-free since tourists still need to link a valid passport to an online system, the move is the first step in Singapore's larger push to get rid of physical passports.

"The QR code initiative allows travellers to enjoy a faster and more convenient experience, with estimated time savings of around 20 seconds for cars with four travellers, to approximately one minute for cars with 10 travellers," Singapore's Immigration and Checkpoints Authority wrote in a press release announcing the new feature. "Overall waiting time can be reduced by more than 30% if most car travellers use QR code for clearance."

More countries are looking at passport-free travel but it will take years to implement

The land crossings between Singapore and Malaysia can get very busy — government numbers show that a new post-pandemic record of 495,000 people crossed Woodlands and Tuas on the weekend of March 8 (the day before Singapore's holiday weekend.)

Even once Singapore implements fully digital clearance at all of its crossings, the change will in no way affect immigration rules since it's only a way of transferring the status afforded by one's nationality into a digital system (those who need a visa to enter Singapore will still need to apply for one at a consulate before the trip.) More countries are in the process of moving toward similar systems but due to the varying availability of necessary technology and the types of passports issued by different countries, the prospect of agent-free crossings is still many years away.

In the U.S., Chicago's O'Hare International Airport was chosen to take part in a pilot program in which low-risk travelers with TSA PreCheck can check into their flight and pass security on domestic flights without showing ID. The UK has also been testing similar digital crossings for British and EU citizens but no similar push for international travelers is currently being planned in the U.S.

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