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Visualizing Remittance Flows & GDP Impact By Country

Visualizing Remittance Flows & GDP Impact By Country

The COVID-19 pandemic slowed down the flow of global immigration by 27%.

And,…

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Visualizing Remittance Flows & GDP Impact By Country

The COVID-19 pandemic slowed down the flow of global immigration by 27%.

And, as Visual Capitalist's Richie Lionell details below, alongside it, travel restrictions, job losses, and mounting health concerns meant that many migrant workers couldn’t send money in the form of remittances back to families in their home countries.

This flow of remittances received by countries dropped by 1.5% to $711 billion globally in 2020. But over the next two years, things quickly turned back around.

As visa approvals restarted and international borders opened, so did international migration and global remittance flows.

In 2021, total global remittances were estimated at $781 billion and have further risen to $794 billion in 2022.

In these images, Richie Lionell uses the World Bank’s KNOMAD data to visualize this increasing flow of money across international borders in 176 countries.

Why Do Remittances Matter?

Remittances contribute to the economy of nations worldwide, especially low and middle-income countries (LMICs). 

They have been shown to help alleviate poverty, improve nutrition, and even increase school enrollment rates in these nations. Research has also found that these inflows of income can help recipient households become resilient, especially in the face of disasters.

At the same time, it’s worth noting that these transfers aren’t a silver bullet for recipient nations. In fact, some research shows that overreliance on remittances can cause a vicious cycle that doesn’t translate to consistent economic growth over time.

Countries Receiving the Highest Remittances

For the past 15 years, India has consistently topped the chart of the largest remittance beneficiaries.

With an estimated $100 billion in remittances received, India is said to have reached an all-time high in 2022.

This increasing flow of remittances can be partially attributed to migrant Indians switching to high-skilled jobs in high-income countries—including the U.S., the UK, and Singapore—from low-skilled and low-paying jobs in Gulf countries.

Rank Remittance Inflows by Country 2022 (USD)
1 India

$100,000M

2 Mexico $60,300M
3 China $51,000M
4 Philippines $38,000M
5 Egypt, Arab Rep. $32,337M
6 Pakistan $29,000M
7 France $28,520M
8 Bangladesh $21,000M
9 Nigeria $20,945M
10 Vietnam $19,000M
11 Ukraine $18,421M
12 Guatemala $18,112M
13 Germany $18,000M
14 Belgium $13,500M
15 Uzbekistan $13,500M
16 Morocco $11,401M
17 Romania $11,064M
18 Dominican Republic $9,920M
19 Indonesia $9,700M
20 Thailand $9,500M
21 Colombia $9,133M
22 Italy $9,000M
23 Nepal $8,500M
24 Spain $8,500M
25 Honduras $8,284M
26 Poland $8,000M
27 Korea, Rep. $7,877M
28 El Salvador $7,620M
29 Lebanon $6,841M
30 Israel $6,143M
31 United States $6,097M
32 Russian Federation $6,000M
33 Serbia $5,400M
34 Brazil $5,045M
35 Japan $5,000M
36 Portugal $4,694M
37 Ghana $4,664M
38 Jordan $4,646M
39 Czech Republic $4,539M
40 Haiti $4,532M
41 Ecuador $4,468M
42 Georgia $4,100M
43 Kenya $4,091M
44 Croatia $3,701M
45 Peru $3,699M
46 Sri Lanka $3,600M
47 West Bank and Gaza $3,495M
48 Jamaica $3,419M
49 Armenia $3,350M
50 Tajikistan $3,200M
51 Nicaragua $3,126M
52 Kyrgyz Republic $3,050M
53 Senegal $2,711M
54 Austria $2,700M
55 Switzerland $2,631M
56 Sweden $2,565M
57 United Kingdom $2,501M
58 Hungary $2,404M
59 Bosnia and Herzegovina $2,400M
60 Slovak Republic $2,300M
61 Moldova $2,170M
62 Azerbaijan $2,150M
63 Tunisia $2,085M
64 Zimbabwe $2,047M
65 Luxembourg $2,000M
66 Netherlands $2,000M
67 Myanmar $1,900M
68 Algeria $1,829M
69 Albania $1,800M
70 Somalia $1735M
71 Congo, Dem. Rep. $1,664M
72 Malaysia $1,620M
73 Kosovo $1,600M
74 Denmark $1,517M
75 Latvia $1,500M
76 Bolivia $1,403M
77 Belarus $1,350M
78 Cambodia $1,250M
79 Bermuda $1,200M
80 South Sudan $1,187M
81 Uganda $1,131M
82 Mali $1,094M
83 South Africa $1,019M
84 Sudan $1,013M
85 Argentina $966M
86 Montenegro $920M
87 Finland $880M
88 Bulgaria $850M
89 Slovenia $800M
90 Australia $737M
91 Madagascar $718M
92 Turkey $710M
93 Canada $700M
94 Lithuania $700M
95 Togo $668M
96 Greece $665M
97 Costa Rica $654M
98 Estonia $626M
99 Qatar $624M
100 Iraq $624M
101 Gambia, The $615M
102 Tanzania $609M
103 Norway $600M
104 Panama $596M
105 Burkina Faso $589M
106 Hong Kong SAR, China $571M
107 Paraguay $554M
108 Mozambique $545M
109 Niger $534M
110 Cyprus $527M
111 Lesotho $527M
112 Mongolia $500M
113 Rwanda $469M
114 Fiji $450M
115 North Macedonia $450M
116 Guyana $400M
117 Cabo Verde $375M
118 Kazakhstan $370M
119 Cameroon $365M
120 Cote d'Ivoire $360M
121 Liberia $351M
122 Afghanistan $350M
123 Ethiopia $327M
124 Samoa $280M
125 Mauritius $279M
126 Saudi Arabia $273M
127 Malta $271M
128 Malawi $267M
129 Zambia $260M
130 Tonga $250M
131 Comoros $250M
132 Ireland $249M
133 Suriname $221M
134 Benin $209M
135 Lao PDR $200M
136 Timor-Leste $185M
137 Sierra Leone $179M
138 Guinea-Bissau $178M
139 Trinidad and Tobago $172M
140 Mauritania $168M
141 Iceland $164M
142 Eswatini $148M
143 Belize $142M
144 Curacao $131M
145 Uruguay $127M
146 Chile $78M
147 Vanuatu $75M
148 St. Vincent and the Grenadines $70M
149 Grenada $69M
150 Botswana $56M
151 St. Lucia $55M
152 Bhutan $55M
153 Djibouti $55M
154 Dominica $52M
155 Burundi $50M
156 Aruba $44M
157 Namibia $44M
158 Guinea $41M
159 Solomon Islands $40M
160 Oman $39M
161 Antigua and Barbuda $35M
162 St. Kitts and Nevis $33M
163 Marshall Islands $30M
164 Kuwait $27M
165 New Zealand $25M
166 Macao SAR, China $17M
167 Angola $16M
168 Kiribati $15M
169 Cayman Islands $14M
170 Sao Tome and Principe $10M
171 Seychelles $9M
172 Maldives $5M
173 Gabon $4M
174 Palau $2M
175 Papua New Guinea $2M
176 Turkmenistan $1M
Total World $794,059M

Mexico and China round out the top three remittance-receiving nations, with estimated inbound transfers of $60 billion and $51 billion respectively in 2022.

Impact on National GDP

While India tops the list of countries benefitting from remittances, its $100 billion received amounts to only 2.9% of its 2022 GDP.

Meanwhile, low and middle-income countries around the world heavily rely on this source of income to boost their economies in a more substantive way. In 2022, for example, remittances accounted for over 15% of the GDP of 25 countries.

Rank Remittance Inflows by Country % of GDP (2022)
1 Tonga 49.9%
2 Lebanon 37.8%
3 Samoa 33.7%
4 Tajikistan 32.0%
5 Kyrgyz Republic 31.2%
6 Gambia, The 28.3%
7 Honduras 27.1%
8 South Sudan 24.8%
9 El Salvador 23.8%
10 Haiti 22.4%
11 Nepal 21.7%
12 Jamaica 21.2%
13 Lesotho 21.0%
14 Somalia 20.6%
15 Comoros 20.1%
16 Nicaragua 19.9%
17 Guatemala 19.8%
18 Armenia 18.9%
19 West Bank and Gaza 18.5%
20 Cabo Verde 18.2%
21 Kosovo 17.3%
22 Uzbekistan 17.0%
23 Georgia 16.2%
24 Moldova 15.4%
25 Montenegro 15.0%
26 Ukraine 13.8%
27 Marshall Islands 11.0%
28 Guinea-Bissau 10.9%
29 Bosnia and Herzegovina 10.1%
30 Albania 9.8%
31 Senegal 9.8%
32 Jordan 9.6%
33 Philippines 9.4%
34 Fiji 9.2%
35 Liberia 9.0%
36 Dominican Republic 8.8%
37 Dominica 8.6%
38 Serbia 8.6%
39 Togo 7.9%
40 Morocco 7.9%
41 Pakistan 7.7%
42 Vanuatu 7.6%
43 Timor-Leste 7.5%
44 Suriname 7.3%
45 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 7.3%
46 Kiribati 7.2%
47 Egypt, Arab Rep. 6.8%
48 Ghana 6.1%
49 Mali 5.9%
50 Grenada 5.8%
51 Zimbabwe 5.3%
52 Croatia 5.3%
53 Belize 5.3%
54 Sri Lanka 4.8%
55 Madagascar 4.7%
56 Vietnam 4.5%
57 Bangladesh 4.5%
58 Tunisia 4.5%
59 Cambodia 4.4%
60 Sierra Leone 4.3%
61 Mexico 4.2%
62 Nigeria 4.1%
63 Rwanda 3.8%
64 Ecuador 3.8%
65 Latvia 3.6%
66 Romania 3.6%
67 Niger 3.6%
68 Kenya 3.5%
69 Bolivia 3.2%
70 Burkina Faso 3.2%
71 Myanmar 3.1%
72 North Macedonia 3.1%
73 Mongolia 3.1%
74 Eswatini 3.1%
75 Azerbaijan 3.0%
76 Mozambique 3.0%
77 St. Kitts and Nevis 2.9%
78 India 2.8%
79 St. Lucia 2.7%
80 Guyana 2.6%
81 Colombia 2.6%
82 Congo, Dem. Rep. 2.6%
83 Solomon Islands 2.4%
84 Luxembourg 2.4%
85 Mauritius 2.4%
86 Sudan 2.3%
87 Uganda 2.3%
88 Malawi 2.3%
89 Belgium 2.2%
90 Sao Tome and Principe 2.0%
91 Afghanistan 2.0%
92 Slovak Republic 2.0%
93 Antigua and Barbuda 2.0%
94 Bhutan 2.0%
95 Cyprus 1.9%
96 Portugal 1.8%
97 Thailand 1.7%
98 Belarus 1.6%
99 Mauritania 1.6%
100 Estonia 1.6%
101 Malta 1.5%
102 Peru 1.5%
103 Czech Republic 1.5%
104 Djibouti 1.4%
105 Burundi 1.3%
106 Paraguay 1.3%
107 Hungary 1.3%
108 Slovenia 1.2%
109 Aruba 1.2%
110 Lao PDR 1.2%
111 Benin 1.1%
112 Israel 1.1%
113 Poland 1.1%
114 Lithuania 1.0%
115 France 1.0%
116 Bulgaria 0.9%
117 Algeria 0.9%
118 Zambia 0.9%
119 Costa Rica 0.9%
120 Palau 0.8%
121 Panama 0.8%
122 Cameroon 0.8%
123 Tanzania 0.7%
124 Indonesia 0.7%
125 Spain 0.6%
126 Iceland 0.5%
127 Trinidad and Tobago 0.5%
128 Austria 0.5%
129 Cote d'Ivoire 0.5%
130 Seychelles 0.4%
131 Korea, Rep. 0.4%
132 Italy 0.4%
133 Germany 0.4%
134 Sweden 0.4%
135 Denmark 0.3%
136 Malaysia 0.3%
137 Namibia 0.3%
138 Switzerland 0.3%
139 Finland 0.3%
140 Botswana 0.3%
141 Greece 0.2%
142 Ethiopia 0.2%
143 Qatar 0.2%
144 Russian Federation 0.2%
145 Brazil 0.2%
146 China 0.2%
147 South Africa 0.2%
148 Iraq 0.2%
149 Guinea 0.2%
150 Netherlands 0.2%
151 Uruguay 0.1%
152 Kazakhstan 0.1%
153 Hong Kong SAR, China 0.1%
154 Argentina 0.1%
155 Norway 0.1%
156 Japan 0.1%
157 Maldives 0.08%
158 Turkey 0.08%
159 United Kingdom 0.07%
160 Macao SAR, China 0.07%
161 Ireland 0.05%
162 Australia 0.04%
163 Oman 0.04%
164 Saudi Arabia 0.03%
165 Chile 0.02%
166 United States 0.02%
167 Gabon 0.02%
168 Kuwait 0.01%
169 Angola 0.01%
170 New Zealand 0.01%
171 Papua New Guinea 0.01%
172 Turkmenistan 0.001%

Known primarily as a tourist destination, the Polynesian country of Tonga banks on remittance inflows to support its economy. In 2022, the country’s incoming remittance flows were equal to almost 50% of its GDP.

Next on this list is Lebanon. The country received $6.8 billion in remittances in 2022, estimated to equal almost 38% of its GDP and making it a key support to the nation’s shrinking economy.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/27/2023 - 23:25

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As We Sell Off Our Strategic Oil Reserves, Ponder This

As We Sell Off Our Strategic Oil Reserves, Ponder This

Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog,

One of Biden’s answers to combating…

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As We Sell Off Our Strategic Oil Reserves, Ponder This

Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog,

One of Biden's answers to combating higher gas prices has been to tap into America's oil reserves. While I was never a fan of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) program, it does have a place in our toolbox of weapons. We can use the reserve to keep the country running if outside oil supplies are cut off. Still, considering how out of touch with reality Washington has become, we can only imagine the insane types of services it would deem essential next time an oil shortage occurs.

Sadly, some of these reserves found their way into the export market and ended up in China. We now have proof that the President's son Hunter had a Chinese Communist Party member as his assistant while dealing with the Chinese. Apparently, he played a role in the shipping of American natural gas to China in 2017. It seems the Biden family was promising business associates that they would be rewarded once Biden became president. Biden's actions could be viewed as those of a traitor or at least disqualify him from being President.

The following information was contained in a letter from House Oversight Committee ranking member James Comer, R-Ky. to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen dated Sept. 20. 

"The President has not only misled the American public about his past foreign business transactions, but he also failed to disclose that he played a critical role in arranging a business deal to sell American natural resources to the Chinese while planning to run for President.”

Joe Biden, Comer said, was a business partner in the arrangement and had office space to work on the deal, and a firm he managed received millions from his Chinese partners ahead of the anticipated venture. While part of what Comer stated had previously been reported in the news, the letter, cited whistleblower testimonies, as well as emails, a corporate PowerPoint presentation, and a screenshot of encrypted messages. These as well as  bank documents that committee Republicans obtained suggest Biden’s knowledge and involvement in the plan dated back to at least 2017.

The big point here is;

  • The Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which was established in 1975 due to the 1973 oil embargo, is now at its lowest level since December 1983.

In December 1975, with memories of gas lines fresh on the minds of Americans following the 1973 OPEC oil embargo, Congress established the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). It was designed “to reduce the impact of severe energy supply interruptions.” What are the implications of depleting the SPR and is it still important?

The U.S. government began to fill the reserve and it hit its high point in 2010 at around 726.6 million barrels. Since December 1984, this is the first time the level has been lower than 450 million barrels. Draining the SPR has been a powerful tool for the administration in its effort to tame the price of gasoline. It also signaled a "new era" of intervention on the part of the White House. 

This brings front-and-center questions concerning the motivation of those behind this action. One of the implications of Biden's war on high oil prices is that it has short-circuited the fossil investment/supply development process.  Capital expenditures among the five largest oil and gas companies have fallen as the price of oil has come under fire. The current under-investment in this sector is one of the reasons oil prices are likely to take a big jump in a few years. Production from existing wells is expected to rapidly fall.

The Supply Of Oil Is Far More Constant And Inelastic Than Demand

It is important to remember when it comes to oil, the supply is far more constant and inelastic than the demand. This means that it takes time and investment to bring new wells online while demand can rapidly change. This happened during the pandemic when countries locked down and told their populations and told them to stay at home. This resulted in the price of oil temporarily going negative because there was nowhere to store it.

Draining oil from the strategic reserve is a short-sighted and dangerous choice that will impact America's energy security at times of global uncertainty. In an effort to halt inflationary forces, Biden released a huge amount of crude oil from the SPR to artificially suppress fuel prices ahead of the midterm elections. 

To date, Biden has dumped more SPR on the market than all previous presidents combined reducing the reserves to levels not seen since the early 1980s. In spite of how I feel about the inefficiencies of this program, it does serve a vital role. It is difficult to underestimate the importance of a country's ability to rapidly increase its domestic flow of oil. This defensive action protects its economy and adds to its resilience. 

Biden's actions have put the whole country at risk. Critics of his policy pointed out the Strategic Petroleum Reserve was designed for use in an emergency not as a tool to manipulate elections. Another one of Biden's goals may be to bring about higher oil prices to reduce its use and accelerate the use of high-cost green energy.

Either way, Biden's war on oil has not made America's energy policies more efficient or the country stronger.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/25/2023 - 18:30

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The Disinformation-Industrial Complex Vs Domestic Terror

The Disinformation-Industrial Complex Vs Domestic Terror

Authored by Ben Weingarten via RealClearInvestigations.com,

Combating disinformation…

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The Disinformation-Industrial Complex Vs Domestic Terror

Authored by Ben Weingarten via RealClearInvestigations.com,

Combating disinformation has been elevated to a national security imperative under the Biden administration, as codified in its first-of-its-kind National Strategy for Countering Domestic Terrorism, published in June 2021.  

That document calls for confronting long-term contributors to domestic terrorism.

In connection therewith, it cites as a key priority “addressing the extreme polarization, fueled by a crisis of disinformation and misinformation often channeled through social media platforms, which can tear Americans apart and lead some to violence.” 

Media literacy specifically is seen as integral to this effort. The strategy adds that: “the Department of Homeland Security and others are either currently funding and implementing or planning evidence–based digital programming, including enhancing media literacy and critical thinking skills, as a mechanism for strengthening user resilience to disinformation and misinformation online for domestic audiences.” 

Previously, the Senate Intelligence Committee suggested, in its report on “Russian Active Measures Campaigns and Interference in the 2016 Election” that a “public initiative—propelled by Federal funding but led in large part by state and local education institutions—focused on building media literacy from an early age would help build long-term resilience to foreign manipulation of our democracy.” 

In June 2022, Democrat Senator Amy Klobuchar introduced the Digital Citizenship and Media Literacy Act, which – citing the Senate Intelligence Committee’s report – would fund a media literacy grant program for state and local education agencies, among other entities. 

NAMLE and Media Literacy Now, both recipients of State Department largesse, endorsed the bill. 

Acknowledging explicitly the link between this federal counter-disinformation push, and the media literacy education push, Media Literacy Now wrote in its latest annual report that ... 

... the federal government is paying greater attention to the national security consequences of media illiteracy.

The Department of Homeland Security is offering grants to organizations to improve media literacy education in communities across the country. Meanwhile, the Department of Defense is incorporating media literacy into standard troop training, and the State Department is funding media literacy efforts abroad.

These trends are important for advocates to be aware of as potential sources of funding as well as for supporting arguments around integrating media literacy into K-12 classrooms. 

When presented with notable examples of narratives corporate media promoted around Trump-Russia collusion, and COVID-19, to justify this counter-disinformation campaign, Media Literacy Now president Erin McNeill said: “These examples are disappointing.”

The antidote, in her view is, “media literacy education because it helps people not only recognize the bias in their news sources and seek out other sources, but also to demand and support better-quality journalism.” (Emphasis McNeill’s)

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/25/2023 - 17:30

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G7 Vs BRICS – Off To The Races

G7 Vs BRICS – Off To The Races

Authored by Scott Ritter via ConsortiumNews.com,

An economist digging below the surface of an IMF report has…

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G7 Vs BRICS - Off To The Races

Authored by Scott Ritter via ConsortiumNews.com,

An economist digging below the surface of an IMF report has found something that should shock the Western bloc out of any false confidence in its unsurpassed global economic clout...

G7 leaders meeting on June 28, 2022, at Schloss Elmau in Krün, Germany. (White House/Adam Schultz)

Last summer, the Group of 7 (G7), a self-anointed forum of nations that view themselves as the most influential economies in the world, gathered at Schloss Elmau, near Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany, to hold their annual meeting. Their focus was punishing Russia through additional sanctions, further arming of Ukraine and the containment of China.

At the same time, China hosted, through video conference, a gathering of the BRICS economic forum. Comprised of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, this collection of nations relegated to the status of so-called developing economies focused on strengthening economic bonds, international economic development and how to address what they collectively deemed the counter-productive policies of the G7.

In early 2020, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov had predicted that, based upon purchasing power parity, or PPP, calculations projected by the International Monetary Fund, BRICS would overtake the G7 sometime later that year in terms of percentage of the global total.

(A nation’s gross domestic product at purchasing power parity, or PPP, exchange rates is the sum value of all goods and services produced in the country valued at prices prevailing in the United States and is a more accurate reflection of comparative economic strength than simple GDP calculations.)

Then the pandemic hit and the global economic reset that followed made the IMF projections moot. The world became singularly focused on recovering from the pandemic and, later, managing the fallout from the West’s massive sanctioning of Russia following that nation’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The G7 failed to heed the economic challenge from BRICS, and instead focused on solidifying its defense of the “rules based international order” that had become the mantra of the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden.

Miscalculation

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, an ideological divide that has gripped the world, with one side (led by the G7) condemning the invasion and seeking to punish Russia economically, and the other (led by BRICS) taking a more nuanced stance by neither supporting the Russian action nor joining in on the sanctions. This has created a intellectual vacuum when it comes to assessing the true state of play in global economic affairs.

U.S. President Joe Biden in virtual call with G7 leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Feb. 24. (White House/Adam Schultz)

It is now widely accepted that the U.S. and its G7 partners miscalculated both the impact sanctions would have on the Russian economy, as well as the blowback that would hit the West.

Angus King, the Independent senator from Maine, recently observed that he remembers

“when this started a year ago, all the talk was the sanctions are going to cripple Russia. They’re going to be just out of business and riots in the street absolutely hasn’t worked …[w]ere they the wrong sanctions? Were they not applied well? Did we underestimate the Russian capacity to circumvent them? Why have the sanctions regime not played a bigger part in this conflict?”

It should be noted that the IMF calculated that the Russian economy, as a result of these sanctions, would contract by at least 8 percent. The real number was 2 percent and the Russian economy — despite sanctions — is expected to grow in 2023 and beyond.

This kind of miscalculation has permeated Western thinking about the global economy and the respective roles played by the G7 and BRICS. In October 2022, the IMF published its annual World Economic Outlook (WEO), with a focus on traditional GDP calculations. Mainstream economic analysts, accordingly, were comforted that — despite the political challenge put forward by BRICS in the summer of 2022 — the IMF was calculating that the G7 still held strong as the leading global economic bloc.

In January 2023 the IMF published an update to the October 2022 WEO,  reinforcing the strong position of the G7.  According to Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist, the “balance of risks to the outlook remains tilted to the downside but is less skewed toward adverse outcomes than in the October WEO.”

This positive hint prevented mainstream Western economic analysts from digging deeper into the data contained in the update. I can personally attest to the reluctance of conservative editors trying to draw current relevance from “old data.”

Fortunately, there are other economic analysts, such as Richard Dias of Acorn Macro Consulting, a self-described “boutique macroeconomic research firm employing a top-down approach to the analysis of the global economy and financial markets.”

Rather than accept the IMF’s rosy outlook as gospel, Dias did what analysts are supposed to do — dig through the data and extract relevant conclusions.

After rooting through the IMF’s World Economic Outlook Data Base, Dias conducted a comparative analysis of the percentage of global GDP adjusted for PPP between the G7 and BRICS, and made a surprising discovery: BRICS had surpassed the G7.

This was not a projection, but rather a statement of accomplished fact:

BRICS was responsible for 31.5 percent of the PPP-adjusted global GDP, while the G7 provided 30.7 percent.

Making matters worse for the G7, the trends projected showed that the gap between the two economic blocs would only widen going forward.

The reasons for this accelerated accumulation of global economic clout on the part of BRICS can be linked to three primary factors:

  • residual fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic,

  • blowback from the sanctioning of Russia by the G7 nations in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and a growing resentment among the developing economies of the world to G7 economic policies and

  • priorities which are perceived as being rooted more in post-colonial arrogance than a genuine desire to assist in helping nations grow their own economic potential. 

Growth Disparities

It is true that BRICS and G7 economic clout is heavily influenced by the economies of China and the U.S., respectively. But one cannot discount the relative economic trajectories of the other member states of these economic forums. While the economic outlook for most of the BRICS countries points to strong growth in the coming years, the G7 nations, in a large part because of the self-inflicted wound that is the current sanctioning of Russia, are seeing slow growth or, in the case of the U.K., negative growth, with little prospect of reversing this trend.

Moreover, while G7 membership remains static, BRICS is growing, with Argentina and Iran having submitted applications, and other major regional economic powers, such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt, expressing an interest in joining. Making this potential expansion even more explosive is the recent Chinese diplomatic achievement in normalizing relations between Iran and Saudia Arabia.

Diminishing prospects for the continued global domination by the U.S. dollar, combined with the economic potential of the trans-Eurasian economic union being promoted by Russia and China, put the G7 and BRICS on opposing trajectories. BRICS should overtake the G7 in terms of actual GDP, and not just PPP, in the coming years.

But don’t hold your breath waiting for mainstream economic analysts to reach this conclusion. Thankfully, there are outliers such as Richard Dias and Acorn Macro Consulting who seek to find new meaning from old data. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/25/2023 - 07:00

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