Spread & Containment
Using the stock market and unemployment as an easy and timely coincident recession indicator
– by New Deal democratMy fellow forecaster Bob Dieli has a measure he calls “DeltaDelta,” basically an average of the YoY% change in the stock…

- by New Deal democrat
My fellow forecaster Bob Dieli has a measure he calls “DeltaDelta,” basically an average of the YoY% change in the stock market and the unemployment rate (which hopefully he won’t mind me mentioning here). It called to mind that occasionally in the past I have noted that a YoY decline in stock prices is a yellow flag for a potential recession, although there are many false positives. I wondered whether the signal might improve if, rather than averaging the two, for a signal I insisted that each of the measures be negative YoY. So here’s where that led me.
Government
Only 2% Of Americans Have Received New COVID Vaccine: CDC
Only 2% Of Americans Have Received New COVID Vaccine: CDC
Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,
About 2 percent of all Americans…

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,
About 2 percent of all Americans have received the updated COVID-19 booster shot after it was authorized and recommended by federal health officials several weeks ago, according to updated data provided by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).
More than 7 million Americans have taken the updated shot, which is authorized for people aged 6 months and older, said an HHS spokesman. That's approximately 2 percent of all Americans.
“COVID-19 vaccine distribution, which has shifted to the private market, is a lot different than it was last year when the government was distributing them," said a spokesperson for HHS about the vaccination data. It added that the agency is "directly with manufacturers and distributors to ensure that the vaccines are getting to" various locations.
The statement added that 91 percent of Americans aged 12 years and older "can access the vaccine within 5 miles of where they live," adding that 14 million updated boosters for COVID-19 have been shipped to pharmacies and other locations. The vaccine was approved about a month ago by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) before it was recommended by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shortly thereafter.
It came as some people reported that it's difficult to find doses of the new vaccines at local pharmacies and doctors. Jen Kates, a senior vice president at the Kaiser Family Foundation, said on X in September that her vaccine appointment was canceled due to a lack of supply.
The 7 million figure is up since Oct. 6 when Dr. Mandy Cohen, director of the CDC, told reporters that 4 million had received the new vaccines.
The HHS said Thursday that the latest updated vaccinate rate is about the same as the initial bivalent booster shot when it was rolled out in 2022. However, demand for the 2022 booster vaccine was similarly low, according to CDC data.
Data has shown that about 17 percent of the U.S. population got that previous updated shot, or around 56.5 million people.
The updated vaccines were meant to target the COVID-19 XBB.1.5 variant, which was spreading across the United States when companies like Moderna and Pfizer came up with the new version.
Observational data for the bivalent vaccines, or the previous versions, found weak initial effectiveness that quickly waned.
CDC officials made unsupported claims during the briefing, part of a trend for the agency. “These vaccines will prevent severe disease for COVID-19,” Dr. Demetre Daskalakis, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Disease, told reporters. There’s no evidence that’s true.
The only clinical study data for the new shots is from a study Moderna ran that included injecting 50 humans with the company’s updated formation. The result was a higher level of neutralizing antibodies. Officials believe antibodies protect against COVID-19.
Moderna did not provide any clinical efficacy estimates for infection, severe disease, or death. Pfizer said it was running a trial but has not reported any results.
Novavax’s vaccine was authorized later without any new trial data, as CDC officials have said they recommend that shot. Unlike the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, Novavax doesn't use mRNA technology and is protein-based.
Hospitalizations Down
Despite the recent push for the latest vaccines, data provided by the CDC shows that hospitalizations for COVID-19 have been down for about three consecutive weeks.
For the ending Sept. 30, the hospitalization rate is down by 6 percent, while emergency department visits are down by 14.5 percent and COVID-19 cases are down 1.2 percent, the figures show. Deaths are up 3.8 percent, although health officials have previously said that deaths generally lag behind hospitalizations and case numbers.
In July, COVID-19 hospitalizations had been increasing for several consecutive weeks. CDC historical data suggest that deaths have been relatively low compared with previous years.
But with the release of the Sept. 30 data, hospitalizations have dropped for multiple consecutive weeks.
Dr. Shira Doron, chief infection control officer for Tufts Medicine, told ABC News that that the recent “upswing is not a surge; it’s not even a wave.”
The doctor added: “What we’re seeing is a very gradual and small upward trajectory of cases and hospitalizations, without deaths really going along, which is great news.”
The CDC on Oct. 6 released a report that attempted to push older Americans to get the newest vaccines by saying that COVID-19 is still a "public health threat," namely for people aged 65 and older. The majority of hospitalizations, it said, is occurring among that older demographic, according to the paper.
In the meantime, a handful of hospitals in California, New York state, Massachusetts, and New Jersey have re-implemented mandatory masking—at least for staff.
Several Northern California counties issued a mask mandate for all health care staff starting next month and ending in late April 2024. They include Contra Costa, Sonoma, Alameda, and San Mateo counties. Officials in the Southern California county of San Luis Obispo also issued a vaccine-or-mask mandate earlier this month.
Spread & Containment
Worsening Treasury Liquidity Keeping Fixed-Income Vol Elevated
Worsening Treasury Liquidity Keeping Fixed-Income Vol Elevated
Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,
Poor liquidity in the…

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,
Poor liquidity in the Treasury market is contributing to a rise in implied and realized fixed-income volatility. A re-increase in inflation volatility means this dynamic is likely to persist.
Despite being one of the deepest markets in the world, the market for Treasuries has seen liquidity deteriorate in the years since the pandemic. On several measures – bid/offer spread, order-book depth, price impact of a trade – the Treasury market has shown marked signs of a decline in liquidity in recent years.
Bloomberg’s US Treasury Liquidity Index measures liquidity by comparing where yields are to where they “should” be based off a fitted curve. The greater the average of the yield errors across the curve, the worse liquidity is likely to be.
As the chart below shows, the Liquidity Index infers liquidity has markedly weakened over the last two years, and after showing an improvement over the last six months, it has started to worsen again.
Fixed-income volatility, using the MOVE index, intuitively rises and falls as liquidity worsens and improves respectively.
Bond volatility has been notably higher in this cycle than other assets’ volatility, such as equities and FX. Indeed, the recent rise in the MOVE index, i.e. implied volatility, has taken it to a level above realized volatility it has rarely exceeded in the last 30-plus years.
The immediate catalyst for the rise in bond volatility has been the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking cycle. But this was itself triggered by the rise in inflation. It is the inherent increase in uncertainty that goes with elevated inflation that is the ultimate source of rising volatility.
Higher inflation volatility goes hand in hand with higher market volatility, especially in rates and fixed-income markets. Inflation is very likely to be persistent, and soon to begin re-accelerating. Inflation volatility has moderated somewhat from its recent highs, but is picking up again.
As long as inflation volatility remains elevated, bond vol will remain likewise. This is even more so the case as the yield curve continues to rise, with steeper curves an inherent source of yield volatility.
Spread & Containment
How we’re using evidence to tackle net zero, slow economy and new hybrid working – sign up for Conversation partnership events and reports
With its IPPO partners, The Conversation is addressing some of the biggest policy challenges.

Civil servants around the world are wrestling with a vast web of incredibly complex social problems.
From meeting net zero targets in cash-strapped economies, with often low levels of political support, to managing ageing populations, sluggish productivity levels and handling the repercussions of soaring inequality, there are no easy answers.
But a growing body of detailed academic research can help. The biggest challenge is assessing and then effectively communicating this research to governments so they can use it to inform and shape policy.
In December 2020, as the UK was about to enter its third pandemic lockdown, The Conversation partnered on the £2 million, ESRC-funded International Public Policy Observatory (IPPO), a collaboration of UK academic institutions – including UCL, the Welsh Centre for Public Policy (WCPP), Queen’s University Belfast, and the University of Glasgow – and the International Network for Government Science Advice (INGSA) to help make sense of the flood of COVID-related evidence and then report it usefully to policymakers across the UK.
Three years later, IPPO is now a third of the way through its second two-year phase, and has extended its focus to include the challenges of net zero, socio-economic inequalities, place and spatial inequality and COVID-19 recovery.
It has also been engaging with national and local policymakers to find out what kinds of evidence would be of most use to them. After all, to provide impactful answers, researchers need to know what questions people are asking.
What’s coming up?
Since June 2023, our team has been reviewing the new normal of hybrid and remote work, and how these changes are affecting workers with disabilities and long-term health conditions. In our next report, we’ll look at what policymakers can do to ensure that potential gains from more flexible working conditions are embedded into work spaces.
IPPO has also focused its attention on the challenges posed by net zero goals, and highlighted the pathways and barriers to change when it comes to people making their homes more energy efficient. It has also suggested the novel idea of home upgrade agencies to offer bespoke, data-driven advice to households and help everyone make a positive difference.
This month, the team is holding a public event on the best ways to engage society in how we meet net zero goals, as countries across the world face increased opposition to green policies.
In Northern Ireland and Scotland, the team has also been exploring policy interventions to reduce high levels of economic inactivity. It now intends to expand this research to look at what different geographic areas around the UK can learn from one another.
Innovations in evidence
As part of its remit to challenge and improve how evidence is gathered and used, IPPO recently launched a new series of public, online events on new methods for mobilising evidence for greatest impact, to guide researchers, policymakers and intermediaries.
Our next events on “How to Commission Rapid Evidence Assessments for Policy” and “Systems Mapping: Best Approaches and What Works for Policy Design” will bring together experts in evidence and policy to discuss best practice for evidence-informed decision making.
Read more: The UK's four-day working week pilot was a success – here's what should happen next
We’ll also be welcoming David Halpern, chief executive of the behavioural insights team at Nesta, to discuss how to gauge whether an approach that works in one place and time, will work in others, during a public, online event.
Unlocking potential in a crisis
On November 21, IPPO will launch its first evidence review of 2023 looking at how local authorities can accelerate policy change under pressure.
Over the last four months, IPPO and its partner RREAL have looked at the COVID-19 recovery plans developed by local authorities across the country.
During our launch event, the report’s authors will discuss key takeaways from their research, reveal what mechanisms help unlock and deliver progressive policies, and share in-depth case studies of the experiences of those involved in the design and implementation of recovery plans at the local authority level. You can sign up here.
For more information about IPPO, its events and upcoming work, please click here.
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