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US Q3 GDP Nowcast Still Indicates Accelerating Growth

The US recession forecasts persist for some analysts, but the start date keeps moving forward as incoming economic data continues to reflect strength….

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The US recession forecasts persist for some analysts, but the start date keeps moving forward as incoming economic data continues to reflect strength. The trend is reflected in today’s upwardly revised nowcast for the upcoming third-quarter GDP report.

The government is expected to report on Oct. 26 that US output accelerated in Q3 to a 3.7% annualized pace in the July-through-September period, based on the median estimate via several sources compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. The estimate markets a strong improvement over the 2.1% rise for Q2.

Today’s Q3 estimate of 3.7% also reflects an upward revision from the previous update on Oct. 4, when the median nowcast was 3.2%.

The main takeaway: the recent persistence of 3%-plus median nowcasts at this late date suggest that the Q3 data due later this month will almost certainly indicate a pickup in economic activity.

The ongoing economic resilience has defied the warnings in some circles from earlier in the year that a recession was a virtual certainty by this point. As economist Paul Krugman reminds:

Until quite recently there was a near consensus among forecasters that the US economy was headed for a recession. In fact, it’s been exactly one year since Bloomberg declared that, according to its models, the probability of a recession by October 2023 — that is, now — was 100 percent.

Oops.

Most, perhaps, all recession forecasts in recent history have been a form of wishcasting in some degree. Why? A broad measure of data has consistently indicated that recession risk has remained low this year after rebounding from 2022’s short-lived dip. Yes, a different outlook was highlighted if you cherry-picked indicators. You can always see what you want to see if you focus on specific data sets. But that’s a misguided way to analyze recession. A better methodology (or perhaps it’s best to say the least-worst methodology) is to minimize noise and maximize signal by running the analytics over a wide range of indicators that, in the aggregate, present a more reliable profile.

A month ago, for example, a set of proprietary indicators used in The US Business Cycle Risk Report continued to reflect low odds that an NBER-defined recession had started or was about to start. This week’s edition of the newsletter tells a similar story, as shown in the chart below.

Some forecasters insist that a downturn is still approaching. In the grand scheme of business cycle analytics, they’re right. But it’s hardly productive to simply push recession start dates forward while ignoring the signal for a broad, diversified set of economic and financial indicators.

Yes, there’s another recession on the horizon. The key distinction: At the moment, it’s not on the near-term horizon. Some analysts say that looking beyond the next several months tells a different story. Maybe. The problem is that beyond two or three months, analyzing the path for the economy is more or less total guesswork.

To be fair, the possibility of an economic shock could radically change the analysis in a flash. The escalation of the Israel-Hamas conflict is on the short lost of threats at the moment. But evaluating this risk, much less quantifying it, is challenging, to say the least. When/if this, or some other risk, becomes a critical factor for the downside, we’ll see it in the numbers. Meanwhile, recession nowcasting using a broad set of inputs remains the only game in town.


How is recession risk evolving? Monitor the outlook with a subscription to:
The US Business Cycle Risk Report


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Apparel Retailer Express Moving Toward Bankruptcy

Apparel Retailer Express Moving Toward Bankruptcy

During the company’s last earnings call in November, recently appointed CEO Stewart Glendinning…

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Apparel Retailer Express Moving Toward Bankruptcy

During the company’s last earnings call in November, recently appointed CEO Stewart Glendinning acknowledged the company made some missteps: Among other factors, there was a misalignment between its assortment and customer demand, Retail Dive's Nate Delesline reports.

An Express storefront at King of Prussia mall in Pennsylvania. The retailer said this week that it plans to initiate an international brand expansion starting next year

Express took a hit during the pandemic as its core offering — business casual — fell out of favor as work-from-home surged.

“Unfortunately, my previous assessment of Express’ fragile financial situation leading to a possible bankruptcy due to declining revenue, gross margin profits and ballooning debt of $280 million is a foregone conclusion,” Shawn Grain Carter, a retail industry consultant and professor at the Fashion Institute of Technology at the State University, said in an email to Retail Dive. “With high-interest rates, the retail company must decide between the ‘lesser of two evils.’ Moreover, until they fix the waning consumer demand for their merchandise and elevate the brand and product mix, financial wizardry will not resolve their retail woes.”

Over the past several years, the company has undergone a number of changes as it works to improve its performance. Last January, WHP Global closed on a strategic partnership with Express. The two entities formed an intellectual property joint venture under which WHP contributed $235 million for a 60% stake, while Express retained the remaining 40%. The two entities in November announced plans to expand Express internationally, including in Indonesia and Paraguay, and grow its presence in Central America and Mexico. 

And after the New York Stock Exchange warned of a potential delisting in late March, Express executed a 1-for-20 reverse stock split, which decreased outstanding shares to 3.7 million from 74.9 million. That stock split enabled Express to regain listing compliance with the New York Stock Exchange. Around the same time, Express said it planned to cut 150 jobs by the end of the third quarter.

The company also expanded its portfolio last year through a deal with WHP to acquire Bonobos from Walmart for $75 million. That acquisition helped guide the retailer to a 5% year-over-year uptick in Q3 net sales to $454.1 million from $434.1 million a year earlier. However, comparable sales for Express stores and e-commerce fell 4% and net loss grew to $36.8 million from $34.4 million in the year-ago period. Inventory was also up 14% for the quarter, rising to nearly $481 million from $422.7 million a year earlier. 

“Express has the right building blocks in place with a strong portfolio of brands, a high-potential partnership with WHP and a premier omnichannel platform,” Glendinning said in the earnings announcement. “Our efforts to unlock our full potential and improve our performance are already underway.”

The apparel retailer in late November lowered its full-year 2023 guidance, now expecting net sales to be between $1.84 billion and $1.87 billion, with Bonobos driving $150 million in net sales. 

Finally, on Friday, Bloomberg reported that at least one lender to Express has approached the retailer to put aside a pool of money for expenses tied to a potential future bankruptcy filing.

A demand to set aside so-called cash reserves, if enforced, could push Express into Chapter 11 as it would eat into limited liquidity available for necessary payments to vendors, landlords and other parties.

Creditors have been growing increasingly antsy and considering whether to push the company to file for bankruptcy, Bloomberg previously reported.

Express, which is burning through a short supply of cash as it attempts to fix troubled operations, is looking to avoid any move to fund reserves for as long as possible, other people familiar with the matter said. The retailer lost over $150 million in three quarters through late October as it faced an escalating competitive threat from fast-fashion rivals.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/23/2024 - 18:00

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Apparel Retailer Express Moving Toward Bankruptcy

Apparel Retailer Express Moving Toward Bankruptcy

During the company’s last earnings call in November, recently appointed CEO Stewart Glendinning…

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on

Apparel Retailer Express Moving Toward Bankruptcy

During the company’s last earnings call in November, recently appointed CEO Stewart Glendinning acknowledged the company made some missteps: Among other factors, there was a misalignment between its assortment and customer demand, Retail Dive's Nate Delesline reports.

An Express storefront at King of Prussia mall in Pennsylvania. The retailer said this week that it plans to initiate an international brand expansion starting next year

Express took a hit during the pandemic as its core offering — business casual — fell out of favor as work-from-home surged.

“Unfortunately, my previous assessment of Express’ fragile financial situation leading to a possible bankruptcy due to declining revenue, gross margin profits and ballooning debt of $280 million is a foregone conclusion,” Shawn Grain Carter, a retail industry consultant and professor at the Fashion Institute of Technology at the State University, said in an email to Retail Dive. “With high-interest rates, the retail company must decide between the ‘lesser of two evils.’ Moreover, until they fix the waning consumer demand for their merchandise and elevate the brand and product mix, financial wizardry will not resolve their retail woes.”

Over the past several years, the company has undergone a number of changes as it works to improve its performance. Last January, WHP Global closed on a strategic partnership with Express. The two entities formed an intellectual property joint venture under which WHP contributed $235 million for a 60% stake, while Express retained the remaining 40%. The two entities in November announced plans to expand Express internationally, including in Indonesia and Paraguay, and grow its presence in Central America and Mexico. 

And after the New York Stock Exchange warned of a potential delisting in late March, Express executed a 1-for-20 reverse stock split, which decreased outstanding shares to 3.7 million from 74.9 million. That stock split enabled Express to regain listing compliance with the New York Stock Exchange. Around the same time, Express said it planned to cut 150 jobs by the end of the third quarter.

The company also expanded its portfolio last year through a deal with WHP to acquire Bonobos from Walmart for $75 million. That acquisition helped guide the retailer to a 5% year-over-year uptick in Q3 net sales to $454.1 million from $434.1 million a year earlier. However, comparable sales for Express stores and e-commerce fell 4% and net loss grew to $36.8 million from $34.4 million in the year-ago period. Inventory was also up 14% for the quarter, rising to nearly $481 million from $422.7 million a year earlier. 

“Express has the right building blocks in place with a strong portfolio of brands, a high-potential partnership with WHP and a premier omnichannel platform,” Glendinning said in the earnings announcement. “Our efforts to unlock our full potential and improve our performance are already underway.”

The apparel retailer in late November lowered its full-year 2023 guidance, now expecting net sales to be between $1.84 billion and $1.87 billion, with Bonobos driving $150 million in net sales. 

Finally, on Friday, Bloomberg reported that at least one lender to Express has approached the retailer to put aside a pool of money for expenses tied to a potential future bankruptcy filing.

A demand to set aside so-called cash reserves, if enforced, could push Express into Chapter 11 as it would eat into limited liquidity available for necessary payments to vendors, landlords and other parties.

Creditors have been growing increasingly antsy and considering whether to push the company to file for bankruptcy, Bloomberg previously reported.

Express, which is burning through a short supply of cash as it attempts to fix troubled operations, is looking to avoid any move to fund reserves for as long as possible, other people familiar with the matter said. The retailer lost over $150 million in three quarters through late October as it faced an escalating competitive threat from fast-fashion rivals.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/23/2024 - 18:00

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Apparel Retailer Express Moving Toward Bankruptcy

Apparel Retailer Express Moving Toward Bankruptcy

During the company’s last earnings call in November, recently appointed CEO Stewart Glendinning…

Published

on

Apparel Retailer Express Moving Toward Bankruptcy

During the company’s last earnings call in November, recently appointed CEO Stewart Glendinning acknowledged the company made some missteps: Among other factors, there was a misalignment between its assortment and customer demand, Retail Dive's Nate Delesline reports.

An Express storefront at King of Prussia mall in Pennsylvania. The retailer said this week that it plans to initiate an international brand expansion starting next year

Express took a hit during the pandemic as its core offering — business casual — fell out of favor as work-from-home surged.

“Unfortunately, my previous assessment of Express’ fragile financial situation leading to a possible bankruptcy due to declining revenue, gross margin profits and ballooning debt of $280 million is a foregone conclusion,” Shawn Grain Carter, a retail industry consultant and professor at the Fashion Institute of Technology at the State University, said in an email to Retail Dive. “With high-interest rates, the retail company must decide between the ‘lesser of two evils.’ Moreover, until they fix the waning consumer demand for their merchandise and elevate the brand and product mix, financial wizardry will not resolve their retail woes.”

Over the past several years, the company has undergone a number of changes as it works to improve its performance. Last January, WHP Global closed on a strategic partnership with Express. The two entities formed an intellectual property joint venture under which WHP contributed $235 million for a 60% stake, while Express retained the remaining 40%. The two entities in November announced plans to expand Express internationally, including in Indonesia and Paraguay, and grow its presence in Central America and Mexico. 

And after the New York Stock Exchange warned of a potential delisting in late March, Express executed a 1-for-20 reverse stock split, which decreased outstanding shares to 3.7 million from 74.9 million. That stock split enabled Express to regain listing compliance with the New York Stock Exchange. Around the same time, Express said it planned to cut 150 jobs by the end of the third quarter.

The company also expanded its portfolio last year through a deal with WHP to acquire Bonobos from Walmart for $75 million. That acquisition helped guide the retailer to a 5% year-over-year uptick in Q3 net sales to $454.1 million from $434.1 million a year earlier. However, comparable sales for Express stores and e-commerce fell 4% and net loss grew to $36.8 million from $34.4 million in the year-ago period. Inventory was also up 14% for the quarter, rising to nearly $481 million from $422.7 million a year earlier. 

“Express has the right building blocks in place with a strong portfolio of brands, a high-potential partnership with WHP and a premier omnichannel platform,” Glendinning said in the earnings announcement. “Our efforts to unlock our full potential and improve our performance are already underway.”

The apparel retailer in late November lowered its full-year 2023 guidance, now expecting net sales to be between $1.84 billion and $1.87 billion, with Bonobos driving $150 million in net sales. 

Finally, on Friday, Bloomberg reported that at least one lender to Express has approached the retailer to put aside a pool of money for expenses tied to a potential future bankruptcy filing.

A demand to set aside so-called cash reserves, if enforced, could push Express into Chapter 11 as it would eat into limited liquidity available for necessary payments to vendors, landlords and other parties.

Creditors have been growing increasingly antsy and considering whether to push the company to file for bankruptcy, Bloomberg previously reported.

Express, which is burning through a short supply of cash as it attempts to fix troubled operations, is looking to avoid any move to fund reserves for as long as possible, other people familiar with the matter said. The retailer lost over $150 million in three quarters through late October as it faced an escalating competitive threat from fast-fashion rivals.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/23/2024 - 18:00

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