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US gov’t shutdown looms — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin starts the week with a trip to $26,000 — can BTC price strength overcome sellers and a weekly “death cross?”
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Bitcoin starts the week with a trip to $26,000 — can BTC price strength overcome sellers and a weekly “death cross?”

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the last week of September with a retest of $26,000 as a stubborn range persists.

An unimpressive weekly close sets the tone for the culmination of a traditionally lackluster month for BTC price action.

Having shaken off a hectic week of macroeconomic events, Bitcoin has plenty more to weather before September is over. United States gross domestic product figures for Q2 will come on Sept. 28, with Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data following the day after.

The highlight, however, will likely come in the form of a speech from Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, a week after it opted to hold U.S. interest rates at current elevated levels.

Inflation remains a major talking point into Q4, and Bitcoin still lacks direction as week after week goes by without a clear upward or downward trend emerging.

Will this week be different? The countdown to the monthly close is on.

BTC price weekly chart prints “death cross”

BTC price performance, while steady over the weekend, deteriorated after the Sep. 24 weekly close.

BTC/USD took a trip to $26,000, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows, with this level still managing to hold as support at the time of writing prior to the week’s first Wall Street open.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Eyeing the state of play on exchanges, commentators noted liquidations occurring for long and short BTC positions.

Bitcoin is still near two-week lows, bolstering arguments from already cautious analysts over what might come next.

Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital continued to track what he suggested could be a repeat of previous BTC price behavior. 2023, he argued at the weekend, might end up looking just like 2019 — its counterpart from the last cycle.

“Bitcoin could follow the same bearish fractal from 2019 to drop lower in this Macro Range,” he suggested alongside a comparative chart.

In a subsequent debate on X, Rekt Capital put the potential fractal downside target at near $20,000.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

Keith Alan, co-founder of monitoring resource Material Indicators, meanwhile spied a so-called “death cross” on weekly timeframes.

Here, the falling 21-week simple moving average (SMA) has crossed under its rising 200-week counterpart — a phenomenon that highlights the comparative weakness of recent price action.

Uploading a chart showing a downside warning from Material Indicators’ proprietary price tools, Alan added that this would be invalidated should BTC/USD reclaim $26,500.

A more optimistic take came from trader and analyst Credible Crypto, who believed a rebalancing of market composition would result in a return to $27,000.

“We had clear, visible and confirmed accumulation occurring in the green square,” he commented on a chart, building on analysis from the weekend.

“This latest push down looks to be manipulation to the downside (red square) prior to expansion to the upside. 27k incoming imo.”
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Credible Crypto/X

September 2023 clings to “green” status

Despite the overnight weakness, Bitcoin remains in the black for September overall — a rare feat by historical standards.

The latest live data from monitoring resource CoinGlass puts BTC/USD up 0.8% month-to-date.

BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

While this seems modest compared to the volatility generally seen with the pair, September usually forms a bearish prelude to a more substantial upside traditionally seen in October.

2023 is thus still on track to be Bitcoin’s strongest September performance for seven years.

October, which is informally known as “Uptober” among hodlers thanks to coinciding with BTC and broader crypto gains, is already a talking point.

Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, suggested the start of next month could provide the fuel for the total crypto market cap to break above the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA).

“Total market capitalization for Crypto fights the resistance here of the 200-Week EMA,” he told X subscribers late last week.

“I think it’s just a matter of time until we flip above it. Probably 1-2 weeks if Ethereum ETF Futures could be approved and Uptober begins.”
Total crypto market cap annotated chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Bitcoin’s 200-week EMA continues to act as support and currently sits at $25,700.

PCE data, Fed’s Powell headline macro week

If last week’s macroeconomic events were not enough to induce significant volatility across Bitcoin and crypto markets, perhaps the month-end selection will have the desired effect.

Revised U.S. Q2 GDP precedes comments from Fed Chair Powell, as well as five other speakers, including Governor Lisa Cook, later on Sept. 28. Markets, as ever, will be closely watching the language used — especially by Powell — to determine how future economic policy might play out.

PCE data will come a day later; this is known to be one of the Fed’s preferred gauges for measuring inflation trends.

“Very busy week just as volatility has returned,” financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized in an X outlook.

Prior to the data and Fed speakers, markets are pricing in a 75% chance that interest rates stay anchored at present levels at the next decision meeting in November, per data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

Waiting in the wings before that, meanwhile, is the threat of a fresh U.S. government shutdown over budget wrangling. Politicians have until Oct. 2 to avert one, notes pro-Bitcoin commercial litigator Joe Carlasare.

Analysis dismisses BTC exchange balance drop

Bitcoin available to buy on exchanges may be near its lowest levels since 2018, but this is no cause for celebration or even bullishness, one longtime analyst argues.

For Willy Woo, creator of the statistics platform Woobull, the “synthetic” nature of exchanges’ BTC balances means that their multi-year decline does not represent the BTC supply becoming more illiquid or scarce.

“Will buying up the inventory of BTC on exchanges moon the price? NO! This is a fallacy,” he told X subscribers in a thread at the weekend.

“This happened all through the 2022 bear. There’s no supply shock because synthetic BTC via futures markets added to inventory. The market made a bottom when futures markets relented.”
Bitcoin inventory on exchanges annotated chart. Source: Willy Woo/X

Woo argued that approving a Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund in the U.S. would go some way to “rectify” the problem.

Futures, he added, were the elephant in the room that skewed his perspective of the market at the start of 2022 before BTC/USD hit two-year lows of $15,600 in November.

“I saw the market bullish in early 2022 by reading on-chain (spot) flows as bullish, all the while the leviathan of futures impact was saying the opposite,” he admitted.

Bitcoin offers “fascinating” 2020 similarities

Regardless of near-term BTC price performance, some remain universally bullish when it comes to the overall health of Bitcoin this year.

Related: Bitcoin short-term holders ‘panic’ amid nearly 100% unrealized loss

Among them is the popular trader and analyst known as Moustache, who now believes that current levels could represent the last chance to “buy the dip” on BTC in 2023.

Uploading a chart comparing the status quo to that of 2020, Moustache additionally noted “fascinating” similarities in Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI).

He subsequently gave significance on the 200-week EMA holding as support.

“95% wait for lower prices that won’t happen.,” he wrote in part of the accompanying commentary, with another chart placing BTC/USD in an expanding “megaphone” structure.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Moustache/X

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Shipping company files surprise Chapter 7 bankruptcy, liquidation

While demand for trucking has increased, so have costs and competition, which have forced a number of players to close.

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March 8, 2024

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The U.S. economy is built on trucks.

As a nation we have relatively limited train assets, and while in recent years planes have played an expanded role in moving goods, trucks still represent the backbone of how everything — food, gasoline, commodities, and pretty much anything else — moves around the country.

Related: Fast-food chain closes more stores after Chapter 11 bankruptcy

"Trucks moved 61.1% of the tonnage and 64.9% of the value of these shipments. The average shipment by truck was 63 miles compared to an average of 640 miles by rail," according to the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics 2023 numbers.

But running a trucking company has been tricky because the largest players have economies of scale that smaller operators don't. That puts any trucking company that's not a massive player very sensitive to increases in gas prices or drops in freight rates.

And that in turn has led a number of trucking companies, including Yellow Freight, the third-largest less-than-truckload operator; J.J. & Sons Logistics, Meadow Lark, and Boateng Logistics, to close while freight brokerage Convoy shut down in October.

Aside from Convoy, none of these brands are household names. but with the demand for trucking increasing, every company that goes out of business puts more pressure on those that remain, which contributes to increased prices.

Demand for trucking has continued to increase.

Image source: Shutterstock

Another freight company closes and plans to liquidate

Not every bankruptcy filing explains why a company has gone out of business. In the trucking industry, multiple recent Chapter 7 bankruptcies have been tied to lawsuits that pushed otherwise successful companies into insolvency.

In the case of TBL Logistics, a Virginia-based national freight company, its Feb. 29 bankruptcy filing in U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Western District of Virginia appears to be death by too much debt.

"In its filing, TBL Logistics listed its assets and liabilities as between $1 million and $10 million. The company stated that it has up to 49 creditors and maintains that no funds will be available for unsecured creditors once it pays administrative fees," Freightwaves reported.

The company's owners, Christopher and Melinda Bradner, did not respond to the website's request for comment.

Before it closed, TBL Logistics specialized in refrigerated and oversized loads. The company described its business on its website.

"TBL Logistics is a non-asset-based third-party logistics freight broker company providing reliable and efficient transportation solutions, management, and storage for businesses of all sizes. With our extensive network of carriers and industry expertise, we streamline the shipping process, ensuring your goods reach their destination safely and on time."

The world has a truck-driver shortage

The covid pandemic forced companies to consider their supply chain in ways they never had to before. Increased demand showed the weakness in the trucking industry and drew attention to how difficult life for truck drivers can be.

That was an issue HBO's John Oliver highlighted on his "Last Week Tonight" show in October 2022. In the episode, the host suggested that the U.S. would basically start to starve if the trucking industry shut down for three days.

"Sorry, three days, every produce department in America would go from a fully stocked market to an all-you-can-eat raccoon buffet," he said. "So it’s no wonder trucking’s a huge industry, with more than 3.5 million people in America working as drivers, from port truckers who bring goods off ships to railyards and warehouses, to long-haul truckers who move them across the country, to 'last-mile' drivers, who take care of local delivery." 

The show highlighted how many truck drivers face low pay, difficult working conditions and, in many cases, crushing debt.

"Hundreds of thousands of people become truck drivers every year. But hundreds of thousands also quit. Job turnover for truckers averages over 100%, and at some companies it’s as high as 300%, meaning they’re hiring three people for a single job over the course of a year. And when a field this important has a level of job satisfaction that low, it sure seems like there’s a huge problem," Oliver shared.

The truck-driver shortage is not just a U.S. problem; it's a global issue, according to IRU.org.

"IRU’s 2023 driver shortage report has found that over three million truck driver jobs are unfilled, or 7% of total positions, in 36 countries studied," the global transportation trade association reported. 

"With the huge gap between young and old drivers growing, it will get much worse over the next five years without significant action."

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Wendy’s has a new deal for daylight savings time haters

The Daylight Savings Time promotion slashes prices on breakfast.

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March 8, 2024

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Daylight Savings Time, or the practice of advancing clocks an hour in the spring to maximize natural daylight, is a controversial practice because of the way it leaves many feeling off-sync and tired on the second Sunday in March when the change is made and one has one less hour to sleep in.

Despite annual "Abolish Daylight Savings Time" think pieces and online arguments that crop up with unwavering regularity, Daylight Savings in North America begins on March 10 this year.

Related: Coca-Cola has a new soda for Diet Coke fans

Tapping into some people's very vocal dislike of Daylight Savings Time, fast-food chain Wendy's  (WEN)  is launching a daylight savings promotion that is jokingly designed to make losing an hour of sleep less painful and encourage fans to order breakfast anyway.

Wendy's has recently made a big push to expand its breakfast menu.

Image source: Wendy's.

Promotion wants you to compensate for lost sleep with cheaper breakfast

As it is also meant to drive traffic to the Wendy's app, the promotion allows anyone who makes a purchase of $3 or more through the platform to get a free hot coffee, cold coffee or Frosty Cream Cold Brew.

More Food + Dining:

Available during the Wendy's breakfast hours of 6 a.m. and 10:30 a.m. (which, naturally, will feel even earlier due to Daylight Savings), the deal also allows customers to buy any of its breakfast sandwiches for $3. Items like the Sausage, Egg and Cheese Biscuit, Breakfast Baconator and Maple Bacon Chicken Croissant normally range in price between $4.50 and $7.

The choice of the latter is quite wide since, in the years following the pandemic, Wendy's has made a concerted effort to expand its breakfast menu with a range of new sandwiches with egg in them and sweet items such as the French Toast Sticks. The goal was both to stand out from competitors with a wider breakfast menu and increase traffic to its stores during early-morning hours.

Wendy's deal comes after controversy over 'dynamic pricing'

But last month, the chain known for the square shape of its burger patties ignited controversy after saying that it wanted to introduce "dynamic pricing" in which the cost of many of the items on its menu will vary depending on the time of day. In an earnings call, chief executive Kirk Tanner said that electronic billboards would allow restaurants to display various deals and promotions during slower times in the early morning and late at night.

Outcry was swift and Wendy's ended up walking back its plans with words that they were "misconstrued" as an intent to surge prices during its most popular periods.

While the company issued a statement saying that any changes were meant as "discounts and value offers" during quiet periods rather than raised prices during busy ones, the reputational damage was already done since many saw the clarification as another way to obfuscate its pricing model.

"We said these menuboards would give us more flexibility to change the display of featured items," Wendy's said in its statement. "This was misconstrued in some media reports as an intent to raise prices when demand is highest at our restaurants."

The Daylight Savings Time promotion, in turn, is also a way to demonstrate the kinds of deals Wendy's wants to promote in its stores without putting up full-sized advertising or posters for what is only relevant for a few days.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Comments on February Employment Report

The headline jobs number in the February employment report was above expectations; however, December and January payrolls were revised down by 167,000 combined.   The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio decreased, and the …

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March 8, 2024

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The headline jobs number in the February employment report was above expectations; however, December and January payrolls were revised down by 167,000 combined.   The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate was increased to 3.9%.

Leisure and hospitality gained 58 thousand jobs in February.  At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 17 thousand jobs since February 2020.  So, leisure and hospitality has now essentially added back all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020. 

Construction employment increased 23 thousand and is now 547 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. 

Manufacturing employment decreased 4 thousand jobs and is now 184 thousand above the pre-pandemic level.


Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation

Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.

The 25 to 54 years old participation rate increased in February to 83.5% from 83.3% in January, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 80.7% from 80.6% the previous month.

Both are above pre-pandemic levels.

Average Hourly Wages

WagesThe graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).  

There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later.

Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.3% YoY in February.   

Part Time for Economic Reasons

Part Time WorkersFrom the BLS report:
"The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 million, changed little in February. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs."
The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in February to 4.36 million from 4.42 million in February. This is slightly above pre-pandemic levels.

These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 7.3% from 7.2% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 23.0% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

Unemployed Over 26 WeeksThis graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

According to the BLS, there are 1.203 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, down from 1.277 million the previous month.

This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.174 million, and up from the recent low of 1.050 million.

This is close to pre-pandemic levels.

Job Streak

Through February 2024, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 38 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 5th place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939).

Headline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks
Year EndedStreak, Months
12019100
2199048
3200746
4197945
52024138
6 tie194333
6 tie198633
6 tie200033
9196729
10199525
1Currrent Streak

Summary:

The headline monthly jobs number was above consensus expectations; however, December and January payrolls were revised down by 167,000 combined.  The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate was increased to 3.9%.  Another solid report.

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