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US Focus Could Drive M&A for Canadian Cannabis Operators

In the rapidly evolving cannabis marketplace, how much will M&A activity dictate the course of action for Canadian operators?
The post US Focus Could Drive M&A for Canadian Cannabis Operators appeared first on Investing News Network.

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As investors continue to prioritize cannabis opportunities in the US, market watchers expect mergers and acquisitions (M&A) to play a role in the future for Canadian companies.

A consolidation trend has been expected in the Canadian cannabis space for some time now based on the size of the market compared to the number of operations in the country.

With a recently renewed financial boost and two significant deals among major players in the country, M&A looks set to bring in a new order for Canadian cannabis.

Meanwhile, as Canadian companies wait for policy changes below the border, M&A may help them position ahead of changes in the American legal landscape.

Recent deals push consolidation trend for Canadian M&A

Heading into 2020, a pattern of consolidation was expected for Canadian cannabis operators. However, complications from the financial uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic likely affected plans.

The latter half of 2020 and the start of 2021 brought some newfound momentum for cannabis investments; this came alongside serious developments in the Canadian marketplace that boosted the performance of operators, according to Nawan Butt, portfolio manager with Purpose Investments.

The tone for M&A between cannabis producers in Canada was set late last year, when Aphria (NASDAQ:APHA,TSX:APHA) and Tilray (NASDAQ:TLRY) announced a company union to investors.

The deal sent waves across the cannabis investing landscape as it combined two of the biggest names in the public markets, resulting in a company worth approximately C$5 billion.

Butt told the Investing News Network (INN) that the Aphria and Tilray deal was a great opportunity for each company to fill the other’s weak spots. “A great merger of equals, I would say,” he said.

Following confirmation of the transaction, Som Seif, founder and CEO of Purpose Financial, said the deal was a starting point for more consolidation in the Canadian cannabis space.

And the trend did in fact continue thanks to an all-share C$235 million acquisition deal struck between HEXO (NYSE:HEXO,TSX:HEXO) and fellow public producer Zenabis Global (TSX:ZENA).

“Canadian licensed producers (LPs) have been given a second lifeline of sorts here where the capital markets are back to support them and their balance sheets and put them back into growth mode,” Butt told INN.

What are Canadian companies looking for in M&A right now?

Narbe Alexandrian, CEO of RIV Capital (TSX:RIV,OTC Pink:CNPOF), formerly known as Canopy Rivers, told INN that just over two years after federal cannabis legalization in Canada there has been a critical evolution in terms of how deals are valued.

“At the time, when legalization was taking shape, it was always a race towards who had the most supply,” he said. “Fast forward to now, we’ve noticed that it’s not about who has the infrastructure, it’s about who has the eyeballs, who has the demand, who can capture that demand.”

The executive explained that this shift in how the market approaches valuation has led to a renaissance in Canadian cannabis by way of a multitude of companies seeking a reset button of sorts.

“That reset button could be bankruptcy, or it could be a fire sale of the asset,” he said.

The bigger names in the space have also faced difficulties in a changing financial landscape, and Alexandrian said that for the most part they will likely stop trying to do everything. As a result, he explained, there will be a need for other cannabis companies to fill the gaps left open.

The Valens Company (TSXV:VLNS,OTCQX:VLNCF) President Jeff Fallows agreed with Alexandrian. In a conversation with INN, the executive said M&A strategy has been directly impacted by a shift in the style of executive leadership at the top of the Canadian cannabis space.

“You’re seeing more and more jettisoning of things that are not core (to the big producers), and Valens has been a particular benefactor of that,” he said. Valens specializes in extraction services and has even moved forward with its own line of products, such as vape pens.

Fallows explained that in meetings with newer management teams at LPs, he hears them ask, ‘Why am I doing vape pens?’ and instead they elect to pursue a partnership.

“(It’s) very good from the Valens perspective, but I think (it is) symbolic of the growing up and the evolving of the cannabis sector as a CPG sector,” Fallows said.

Butt has argued that the Canadian market will reach a point where a controlling top of leading companies holds a dominant majority position in the domestic market.

While the green rush of cannabis investment initially led to an explosion of companies and investment avenues, the expert thinks it’s most likely the market will end up with a reduced number of operators.

“What I anticipate for us to start seeing more often is more mergers between tier one and tier two players,” Butt said, classifying the types of Canadian cannabis companies out there.

He warned that none of the future deals that may come into play will be focused on infrastructure or capacity options.

“Nobody wants to buy capacity right now,” said Butt. “What is worth value is brands, relationships, innovative product formats and international exposures.”

Canadians pine for US entry points

One aspect all experts can agree on is the way the US marketplace has affected the path of expansion for Canadian companies.

Canadian firms have entered the US market through strategic investments or expansions with CBD derivative options, which are legally permitted thanks to hemp-derived CBD permissions in the country.

“We anticipate there will be further mergers of sorts going into this year, especially in anticipation of the US opportunity opening up for Canadian LPs,” Butt told INN.

Those business opportunities, however, do not represent medical or recreational cannabis product sales in the fractured state markets. That avenue has been entirely dominated by US-based multi-state operators (MSOs).

“US cannabis companies are now hitting a level of maturity where real business models are emerging,” Joe Bayern, CEO of Curaleaf Holdings (CSE:CURA,OTCQX:CURLF), told S&P Global Market Intelligence.

The growth cycle afforded by the value size available from US cannabis businesses has shifted the attention of Canadian companies with enough financial options to pursue a run below the border.

“Investors are speculating that Canadian cannabis companies will be able to access that market in the near future,” Butt said.

While the desire is present, and the Canadians are starting to talk more openly about their intentions with the US market, the legal framework makes things murky in terms of the approach possible.

“We believe that the Canadian LPs and the potential positioning of entry into the US market is too early,” Charles Taerk, president and CEO of Faircourt Asset Management, commented to INN. “And so all of this structuring, raising capital and the craze in the Canadian LPs, market prices, raising more than the MSOs — (it) doesn’t make a lot of sense to us.”

Taerk explained that from his view cannabis policy in the US has moved at a glacial pace in the past, and that will not change despite the country’s new Democratic political leadership.

“There is great exuberance with respect to the Democrats controlling the Senate,” he said. But according to the financial executive, the current administration has bigger fish to fry right now in terms of policy.

“We believe that there is going to be some type of legislation and it will be tabled. But we don’t think that federal legalization is in the cards, at least this year,” Taerk said.

Dan Ahrens, chief operating officer and portfolio manager at AdvisorShares, told INN the Canadian companies find themselves in a tricky position regarding the US growth opportunity.

“I think that’s one of the most interesting stories still, that disconnect between Canada and the US. For the cannabis operators in Canada, they have no choice but to speak about entry into the US,” he said.

Ahrens told INN Canadian cannabis companies will try everything possible to secure a stake in the US marketplace; some even already have viable access points ready in the case of future policy changes.

“The US operators are going to look extremely tantalizing to Canadian firms, to other US firms and to other US or worldwide CPG companies,” said Ahrens, who manages the AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF (ARCA:YOLO) and the recently launched AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (ARCA:MSOS).

Despite the potential associated with the US marketplace, one financial advisor expressed concern at the current timeline of events starting to surround Canadian companies in relation to US entries.

Ahrens explained that Canadian companies have continued to see trading activity related to US-based developments. “They trade up improperly, I guess is a good way to say it, based on news in the US,” he said. “But it won’t last.”

Investor takeaway

The future seems uncertain for Canadian cannabis companies, especially in relation to the US marketplace — it remains unclear how the country’s cannabis players will capitalize on the attractive American market. For now, what’s evident is that interest in this potential market will surely drive the possibility of critical cross-border M&A plans.

Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Cannabis for real-time updates!

Securities Disclosure: I, Bryan Mc Govern, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.

The post US Focus Could Drive M&A for Canadian Cannabis Operators appeared first on Investing News Network.

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Government

Supreme Court Rules Public Officials May Block Their Constituents On Social Media

Supreme Court Rules Public Officials May Block Their Constituents On Social Media

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times (emphasis…

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Supreme Court Rules Public Officials May Block Their Constituents On Social Media

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Public officials may block people on social media in certain situations, the Supreme Court ruled unanimously on March 15.

People leave the U.S. Supreme Court in Washington on Feb. 21, 2024. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

At the same time, the court held that public officials who post about topics pertaining to their work on their personal social media accounts are acting on behalf of the government. But such officials can be found liable for violating the First Amendment only when they have been properly authorized by the government to communicate on its behalf.

The case is important because nowadays public officials routinely reach out to voters through social media on the same pages where they discuss personal matters unrelated to government business.

When a government official posts about job-related topics on social media, it can be difficult to tell whether the speech is official or private,” Justice Amy Coney Barrett wrote for the nation’s highest court.

The case is separate from but brings to mind a lawsuit that several individuals previously filed against former President Donald Trump after he blocked them from accessing his social media account on Twitter, which was later renamed X. The Supreme Court dismissed that case, Biden v. Knight First Amendment Institute, in April 2021 as moot because President Trump had already left office.

At the time of the ruling, the then-Twitter had banned President Trump. When Elon Musk took over the company he reversed that policy.

The new decision in Lindke v. Freed was written by Justice Amy Coney Barrett.

Respondent James Freed, the city manager of Port Huron, Michigan, used a public Facebook account to communicate with his constituents. Petitioner Kevin Lindke, a resident of Port Huron, criticized the municipality’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, including accusations of hypocrisy by local officials.

Mr. Freed blocked Mr. Lindke and others and removed their comments, according to Mr. Lindke’s petition.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 6th Circuit ruled for Mr. Freed, finding that he was acting only in a personal capacity and that his activities did not constitute governmental action.

Mr. Freed’s attorney, Victoria Ferres, said during oral arguments before the Supreme Court on Oct. 31, 2023, that her client didn’t give up his rights when using social media.

This country’s 21 million government employees should have the right to talk publicly about their jobs on personal social media accounts like their private-sector counterparts.”

The position advocated by the other side would unfairly punish government officials, and “will result in uncertainty and self-censorship for this country’s government employees despite this Court repeatedly finding that government employees do not lose their rights merely by virtue of public employment,” she said.

In Lindke v. Freed, the Supreme Court found that a public official who prevents a person from comments on the official’s social media pages engages in governmental action under Section 1983 only if the official had “actual authority” to speak on the government’s behalf on a specific matter and if the official claimed to exercise that authority when speaking in the relevant social media posts.

Section 1983 refers to Title 42, U.S. Code, Section 1983, which allows people to sue government actors for deprivation of civil rights.

Justice Barrett wrote that according to the so-called state action doctrine, the test for “actual authority” must be “rooted in written law or longstanding custom to speak for the State.”

“That authority must extend to speech of the sort that caused the alleged rights deprivation. If the plaintiff cannot make this threshold showing of authority, he cannot establish state action.”

“For social-media activity to constitute state action, an official must not only have state authority—he must also purport to use it,” the justice continued.

State officials have a choice about the capacity in which they choose to speak.

Citing previous precedent, Justice Barrett wrote that generally a public employee claiming to speak on behalf of the government acts with state authority when he speaks “in his official capacity or” when he uses his speech to carry out “his responsibilities pursuant to state law.”

“If the public employee does not use his speech in furtherance of his official responsibilities, he is speaking in his own voice.”

The Supreme Court remanded the case to the 6th Circuit with instructions to vacate its judgment and ordered it to conduct “further proceedings consistent with this opinion.”

Also on March 15, the Supreme Court ruled on O’Connor-Ratcliff v. Garnier, a related case. The court’s sparse, unanimous opinion was unsigned.

Petitioners Michelle O’Connor-Ratcliff and T.J. Zane were two elected members of the Poway Unified School District Board of Trustees in California who used their personal Facebook and Twitter accounts to communicate with the public.

Respondents Christopher Garnier and Kimberly Garnier, parents of local students, “spammed Petitioners’ posts and tweets with repetitive comments and replies” so the school board members blocked the respondents from the accounts, according to the petition filed by Ms. O’Connor-Ratcliff and Mr. Zane.

But the Garniers said they were acting in good faith.

“The Garniers left comments exposing financial mismanagement by the former superintendent as well as incidents of racism,” the couple said in a brief.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit found in favor of the Garniers, holding that elected officials using social media accounts were participating in a public forum.

The Supreme Court ruled in a three-page opinion that because the 9th Circuit deviated from the standard the high court articulated in Lindke v. Freed, the 9th Circuit’s decision must be vacated.

The case was remanded to the 9th Circuit “for further proceedings consistent with our opinion” in the Lindke case, the Supreme Court stated.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/17/2024 - 22:10

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International

Home buyers must now navigate higher mortgage rates and prices

Rates under 4% came and went during the Covid pandemic, but home prices soared. Here’s what buyers and sellers face as the housing season ramps up.

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Springtime is spreading across the country. You can see it as daffodil, camellia, tulip and other blossoms start to emerge. 

You can also see it in the increasing number of for sale signs popping up in front of homes, along with the painting, gardening and general sprucing up as buyers get ready to sell. 

Which leads to two questions: 

  • How is the real estate market this spring? 
  • Where are mortgage rates? 

What buyers and sellers face

The housing market is bedeviled with supply shortages, high prices and slow sales.

Mortgage rates are still high and may limit what a buyer can offer and a seller can expect.  

Related: Analyst warns that a TikTok ban could lead to major trouble for Apple, Big Tech

And there's a factor not expected that may affect the sales process. Fixed commission rates on home sales are going away in July.

Reports this week and in a week will make the situation clearer for buyers and sellers. 

The reports are:

  • Housing starts from the U.S. Commerce Department due Tuesday. The consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted rate of about 1.4 million homes. These would include apartments, both rentals and condominiums. 
  • Existing home sales, due Thursday from the National Association of Realtors. The consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted sales rate of about 4 million homes. In 2023, some 4.1 million homes were sold, the worst sales rate since 1995. 
  • New-home sales and prices, due Monday from the Commerce Department. Analysts are expecting a sales rate of 661,000 homes (including condos), up 1.5% from a year ago.

Here is what buyers and sellers need to know about the situation. 

Mortgage rates will stay above 5% 

That's what most analysts believe. Right now, the rate on a 30-year mortgage is between 6.7% and 7%. 

Rates peaked at 8% in October after the Federal Reserve signaled it was done raising interest rates.

The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey of March 14 was at 6.74%. 

Freddie Mac buys mortgages from lenders and sells securities to investors. The effect is to replenish lenders' cash levels to make more loans. 

A hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index released that day has pushed quotes to 7% or higher, according to data from Mortgage News Daily, which tracks mortgage markets.

Home buyers must navigate higher mortgage rates and prices this spring.

TheStreet

On a median-priced home (price: $380,000) and a 20% down payment, that means a principal and interest rate payment of $2,022. The payment  does not include taxes and insurance.

Last fall when the 30-year rate hit 8%, the payment would have been $2,230. 

In 2021, the average rate was 2.96%, which translated into a payment of $1,275. 

Short of a depression, that's a rate that won't happen in most of our lifetimes. 

Most economists believe current rates will fall to around 6.3% by the end of the year, maybe lower, depending on how many times the Federal Reserve cuts rates this year. 

If 6%, the payment on our median-priced home is $1,823.

But under 5%, absent a nasty recession, fuhgettaboutit.

Supply will be tight, keeping prices up

Two factors are affecting the supply of homes for sale in just about every market.

First: Homeowners who had been able to land a mortgage at 2.96% are very reluctant to sell because they would then have to find a home they could afford with, probably, a higher-cost mortgage.

More economic news:

Second, the combination of high prices and high mortgage rates are freezing out thousands of potential buyers, especially those looking for homes in lower price ranges.

Indeed, The Wall Street Journal noted that online brokerage Redfin said only about 20% of homes for sale in February were affordable for the typical household.

And here mortgage rates can play one last nasty trick. If rates fall, that means a buyer can afford to pay more. Sellers and their real-estate agents know this too, and may ask for a higher price. 

Covid's last laugh: An inflation surge

Mortgage rates jumped to 8% or higher because since 2022 the Federal Reserve has been fighting to knock inflation down to 2% a year. Raising interest rates was the ammunition to battle rising prices.

In June 2022, the consumer price index was 9.1% higher than a year earlier. 

The causes of the worst inflation since the 1970s were: 

  • Covid-19 pandemic, which caused the global economy to shut down in 2020. When Covid ebbed and people got back to living their lives, getting global supply chains back to normal operation proved difficult. 
  • Oil prices jumped to record levels because of the recovery from the pandemic recovery and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

What the changes in commissions means

The long-standing practice of paying real-estate agents will be retired this summer, after the National Association of Realtors settled a long and bitter legal fight.

No longer will the seller necessarily pay 6% of the sale price to split between buyer and seller agents.

Both sellers and buyers will have to negotiate separately the services agents have charged for 100 years or more. These include pre-screening properties, writing sales contracts, and the like. The change will continue a trend of adding costs and complications to the process of buying or selling a home.

Already, interest rates are a complication. In addition, homeowners insurance has become very pricey, especially in communities vulnerable to hurricanes, tornadoes, and forest fires. Florida homeowners have seen premiums jump more than 102% in the last three years. A policy now costs three times more than the national average.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

 

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Government

Mistakes Were Made

Mistakes Were Made

Authored by C.J.Hopkins via The Consent Factory,

Make fun of the Germans all you want, and I’ve certainly done that…

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Mistakes Were Made

Authored by C.J.Hopkins via The Consent Factory,

Make fun of the Germans all you want, and I’ve certainly done that a bit during these past few years, but, if there’s one thing they’re exceptionally good at, it’s taking responsibility for their mistakes. Seriously, when it comes to acknowledging one’s mistakes, and not rationalizing, or minimizing, or attempting to deny them, and any discomfort they may have allegedly caused, no one does it quite like the Germans.

Take this Covid mess, for example. Just last week, the German authorities confessed that they made a few minor mistakes during their management of the “Covid pandemic.” According to Karl Lauterbach, the Minister of Health, “we were sometimes too strict with the children and probably started easing the restrictions a little too late.” Horst Seehofer, the former Interior Minister, admitted that he would no longer agree to some of the Covid restrictions today, for example, nationwide nighttime curfews. “One must be very careful with calls for compulsory vaccination,” he added. Helge Braun, Head of the Chancellery and Minister for Special Affairs under Merkel, agreed that there had been “misjudgments,” for example, “overestimating the effectiveness of the vaccines.”

This display of the German authorities’ unwavering commitment to transparency and honesty, and the principle of personal honor that guides the German authorities in all their affairs, and that is deeply ingrained in the German character, was published in a piece called “The Divisive Virus” in Der Spiegel, and immediately widely disseminated by the rest of the German state and corporate media in a totally organic manner which did not in any way resemble one enormous Goebbelsian keyboard instrument pumping out official propaganda in perfect synchronization, or anything creepy and fascistic like that.

Germany, after all, is “an extremely democratic state,” with freedom of speech and the press and all that, not some kind of totalitarian country where the masses are inundated with official propaganda and critics of the government are dragged into criminal court and prosecuted on trumped-up “hate crime” charges.

OK, sure, in a non-democratic totalitarian system, such public “admissions of mistakes” — and the synchronized dissemination thereof by the media — would just be a part of the process of whitewashing the authorities’ fascistic behavior during some particularly totalitarian phase of transforming society into whatever totalitarian dystopia they were trying to transform it into (for example, a three-year-long “state of emergency,” which they declared to keep the masses terrorized and cooperative while they stripped them of their democratic rights, i.e., the ones they hadn’t already stripped them of, and conditioned them to mindlessly follow orders, and robotically repeat nonsensical official slogans, and vent their impotent hatred and fear at the new “Untermenschen” or “counter-revolutionaries”), but that is obviously not the case here.

No, this is definitely not the German authorities staging a public “accountability” spectacle in order to memory-hole what happened during 2020-2023 and enshrine the official narrative in history. There’s going to be a formal “Inquiry Commission” — conducted by the same German authorities that managed the “crisis” — which will get to the bottom of all the regrettable but completely understandable “mistakes” that were made in the heat of the heroic battle against The Divisive Virus!

OK, calm down, all you “conspiracy theorists,” “Covid deniers,” and “anti-vaxxers.” This isn’t going to be like the Nuremberg Trials. No one is going to get taken out and hanged. It’s about identifying and acknowledging mistakes, and learning from them, so that the authorities can manage everything better during the next “pandemic,” or “climate emergency,” or “terrorist attack,” or “insurrection,” or whatever.

For example, the Inquiry Commission will want to look into how the government accidentally declared a Nationwide State of Pandemic Emergency and revised the Infection Protection Act, suspending the German constitution and granting the government the power to rule by decree, on account of a respiratory virus that clearly posed no threat to society at large, and then unleashed police goon squads on the thousands of people who gathered outside the Reichstag to protest the revocation of their constitutional rights.

Once they do, I’m sure they’ll find that that “mistake” bears absolutely no resemblance to the Enabling Act of 1933, which suspended the German constitution and granted the government the power to rule by decree, after the Nazis declared a nationwide “state of emergency.”

Another thing the Commission will probably want to look into is how the German authorities accidentally banned any further demonstrations against their arbitrary decrees, and ordered the police to brutalize anyone participating in such “illegal demonstrations.”

And, while the Commission is inquiring into the possibly slightly inappropriate behavior of their law enforcement officials, they might want to also take a look at the behavior of their unofficial goon squads, like Antifa, which they accidentally encouraged to attack the “anti-vaxxers,” the “Covid deniers,” and anyone brandishing a copy of the German constitution.

Come to think of it, the Inquiry Commission might also want to look into how the German authorities, and the overwhelming majority of the state and corporate media, accidentally systematically fomented mass hatred of anyone who dared to question the government’s arbitrary and nonsensical decrees or who refused to submit to “vaccination,” and publicly demonized us as “Corona deniers,” “conspiracy theorists,” “anti-vaxxers,” “far-right anti-Semites,” etc., to the point where mainstream German celebrities like Sarah Bosetti were literally describing us as the inessential “appendix” in the body of the nation, quoting an infamous Nazi almost verbatim.

And then there’s the whole “vaccination” business. The Commission will certainly want to inquire into that. They will probably want to start their inquiry with Karl Lauterbach, and determine exactly how he accidentally lied to the public, over and over, and over again …

And whipped people up into a mass hysteria over “KILLER VARIANTS” …

And “LONG COVID BRAIN ATTACKS” …

And how “THE UNVACCINATED ARE HOLDING THE WHOLE COUNTRY HOSTAGE, SO WE NEED TO FORCIBLY VACCINATE EVERYONE!”

And so on. I could go on with this all day, but it will be much easier to just refer you, and the Commission, to this documentary film by Aya Velázquez. Non-German readers may want to skip to the second half, unless they’re interested in the German “Corona Expert Council” …

Look, the point is, everybody makes “mistakes,” especially during a “state of emergency,” or a war, or some other type of global “crisis.” At least we can always count on the Germans to step up and take responsibility for theirs, and not claim that they didn’t know what was happening, or that they were “just following orders,” or that “the science changed.”

Plus, all this Covid stuff is ancient history, and, as Olaf, an editor at Der Spiegel, reminds us, it’s time to put the “The Divisive Pandemic” behind us …

… and click heels, and heil the New Normal Democracy!

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/16/2024 - 23:20

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