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US could save tens of thousands of lives and tens of billions of dollars with 3 weeks of strict COVID-19 measures

Texas and many other states have eased all or most coronavirus restrictions such as mask-wearing. A cost-benefit analysis suggests reversing those moves for just a short period could make a big difference.

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Texas recently eased all coronavirus restrictions, including mask-wearing. AP Photo/LM Otero

President Joe Biden commemorated the COVID-19 pandemic’s one-year anniversary by giving Americans an ambitious goal: Return to a semblance of normalcy by the Fourth of July.

“But to get there we can’t let our guard down,” he added.

Unfortunately, many states already have. Falling numbers of new coronavirus cases and accelerating vaccination rates have prompted Texas and a growing number of other states to ease more restrictions or drop them altogether. Their governors argue the economic costs are just too high and the measures no longer necessary.

Federal health officials, meanwhile, are advising states to hold off on reopening too soon and urging Americans to continue to mask up and take other precautions in public – even if they’re fully vaccinated. About 1,500 people in the U.S. are still dying every day.

The states easing COVID-19 restrictions seem to be valuing the gains from doing so over the lives of the citizens who may die as a result.

Fortunately, my field of finance offers a way to assess whether this is the right approach or whether the states are making a mistake: conduct a cost-benefit analysis.

Putting a value on life

I published a paper earlier this year – different versions of which were peer-reviewed by Covid Economics and Economics of Natural Disasters and Climate Change (forthcoming) – that performs such an analysis and explains my methodology and assumptions in detail. For this article, I updated the results in my model with the latest figures as of March 13.

A key piece of data you need to know for a cost-benefit analysis is the value of a human life.

Assigning a dollar value to a life may seem strange, but it is something that policymakers do routinely, such as when evaluating the benefits of new regulations. One way to do this is to try to assess the value people put on their own lives. Economists infer this from an individual’s willingness to pay in order to increase the probability of staying alive.

For example, how much extra pay does a worker demand to do a riskier job like in construction that is more likely to result in an injury or death? Or how much are consumers willing to spend on medical interventions or safety equipment in order to reduce the probability of dying?

Resulting estimates produce the “value of a statistical life” – jargon for how much a human life is worth monetarily. This number typically decreases as people age.

The calculations I used in my analysis are based on a recent report by the White House Council of Economic Advisers, with slight modifications to better match other data sources I referenced in my analysis. The value peaks at US$12.3 million for people aged 20 to 44 and declines until it reaches $5.3 million for those 65 and up.

Of course, since most symptomatic COVID-19 cases do not end up in death, I also needed to figure costs due to lost productivity and the medical resources used up when someone gets sick. Since some people merely lose a few days of work, while others may spend weeks in the hospital, it was important to find a way to estimate this. These impacts also increase with age. And so I analyzed probable sick days depending on age and put a value on the loss of productivity.

How tighter restrictions may help

The next consideration is figuring out how many illnesses and deaths could be prevented by adopting stricter COVID-19 measures.

First we must decide which restrictions will make the most difference. After a year of studying the virus, health officials generally agree that the most effective interventions include mandating face coverings, limiting indoor gatherings and requiring physical distancing. Other important measures include closing nonessential businesses, restricting travel from heavily affected areas and maintaining widespread testing and contact tracing.

Currently, businesses are “mostly open” in all but eight states, while masks are still required in a little over half of them.

To project the number of future cases, I used a standard epidemiological model that estimates how various factors alter how many people get sick and recover or die from a disease. The model allows me to incorporate assumptions concerning the implementation of coronavirus restrictions nationwide as well as expected vaccination rates that I assume will continue at the current pace of about 2.5 million doses a day.

The model estimates that between now and September, when I project the pandemic should be largely over in the U.S. because of herd immunity, nearly 5.5 million more people will likely get sick and 65,000 people will die, if the current level of restrictions – like mask mandates and business closures – remains in place. If states continue to ease their restrictions, these estimates would rise, while if vaccinations accelerate, they would decline.

But if all states adopted – or were forced to adopt – all the restrictions listed above for a period of three weeks, the model projects that about 4.5 million fewer people would get sick and 54,000 fewer would die.

A sign over a restaurant in Los Angeles says 'Open for dine-in! 8:00AM to 8:00PM. Welcome Back!' above several diners at tables outside.
Restaurants in California have begun re-opening to indoor dining. AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill

Only three weeks

To some people, merely knowing how many lives could be saved is enough to convince them that a short period of tightened restrictions makes sense. The cost-benefit analysis, however, puts everything in monetary terms – using the “value of a statistical life” numbers mentioned earlier – and may be more persuasive for others who are more skeptical.

My analysis shows the economic value of lives saved and illnesses avoided, based on these assumptions, totals nearly $339 billion. That’s basically the “benefit” to the economy of putting in place three weeks of tightened restrictions nationwide.

To figure the “cost” part of the analysis, I reviewed a few different studies that estimated the costs to the economy of coronavirus restrictions. I concluded that the economy would lose nearly $37 billion every week that restrictions like closure of nonessential businesses and mandated social distancing are imposed. The costs could be higher depending on if the restrictions trigger any bankruptcies or other businesses costs, which are very hard to project.

That adds up to about $111 billion over three weeks, after which I assume states would ease those restrictions and revert to their current policies.

So the net cost savings of imposing three weeks of restrictions would be nearly $228 billion. As the U.S. nears herd immunity, the cost-benefit analysis shows the costs of restrictions will eventually outweigh the benefits – but more people will have died as a result.

Admittedly, this is based on many assumptions, and it’s virtually impossible to get all of them right. Forecasting the number of deaths and illnesses is especially hard, and you’ll get different estimates from sources like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. And it’s possible the vaccines will lose their effectiveness over time to existing or new variants that emerge.

Furthermore, cost-benefit analyses aren’t meant to be predictions; they simply help guide decision-making. But regardless of how I crunched the numbers, I still reached the same conclusion: Imposing a period of tighter restrictions now – even for just one week – will save a lot of lives, offering greater economic benefits than costs.

Now’s not the time to ease up

In other words, now seems to be exactly the wrong time to ease and eliminate restrictions as some states are doing, especially with several new variants remaining a threat.

In fact, I tested a hypothetical scenario in which the more transmissible B.1.1.7 variant becomes the predominant one in the United States. As a result, the calculations in my paper showed that the estimated net benefit of temporarily imposing tighter restrictions nearly triples.

Anthony Fauci, the government’s top infectious diseases expert, called decisions to ease mask mandates and other restrictions “risky business” and warned that the U.S. could see another surge in cases – as Europe is experiencing now – if it lifts restrictions too soon.

My analysis suggests the U.S. should go even further. It not only would save lives but makes economic sense too.

[Over 100,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world. Sign up today.]

Anna Scherbina does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super…

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Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super Tuesday primaries have got it right. Barring cataclysmic changes, Donald Trump and Joe Biden will be the Republican and Democratic nominees for president in 2024.

(Left) President Joe Biden delivers remarks on canceling student debt at Culver City Julian Dixon Library in Culver City, Calif., on Feb. 21, 2024. (Right) Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump stands on stage during a campaign event at Big League Dreams Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nev., on Jan. 27, 2024. (Mario Tama/Getty Images; David Becker/Getty Images)

With Nikki Haley’s withdrawal, there will be no more significantly contested primaries or caucuses—the earliest both parties’ races have been over since something like the current primary-dominated system was put in place in 1972.

The primary results have spotlighted some of both nominees’ weaknesses.

Donald Trump lost high-income, high-educated constituencies, including the entire metro area—aka the Swamp. Many but by no means all Haley votes there were cast by Biden Democrats. Mr. Trump can’t afford to lose too many of the others in target states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Majorities and large minorities of voters in overwhelmingly Latino counties in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley and some in Houston voted against Joe Biden, and even more against Senate nominee Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas).

Returns from Hispanic precincts in New Hampshire and Massachusetts show the same thing. Mr. Biden can’t afford to lose too many Latino votes in target states like Arizona and Georgia.

When Mr. Trump rode down that escalator in 2015, commentators assumed he’d repel Latinos. Instead, Latino voters nationally, and especially the closest eyewitnesses of Biden’s open-border policy, have been trending heavily Republican.

High-income liberal Democrats may sport lawn signs proclaiming, “In this house, we believe ... no human is illegal.” The logical consequence of that belief is an open border. But modest-income folks in border counties know that flows of illegal immigrants result in disorder, disease, and crime.

There is plenty of impatience with increased disorder in election returns below the presidential level. Consider Los Angeles County, America’s largest county, with nearly 10 million people, more people than 40 of the 50 states. It voted 71 percent for Mr. Biden in 2020.

Current returns show county District Attorney George Gascon winning only 21 percent of the vote in the nonpartisan primary. He’ll apparently face Republican Nathan Hochman, a critic of his liberal policies, in November.

Gascon, elected after the May 2020 death of counterfeit-passing suspect George Floyd in Minneapolis, is one of many county prosecutors supported by billionaire George Soros. His policies include not charging juveniles as adults, not seeking higher penalties for gang membership or use of firearms, and bringing fewer misdemeanor cases.

The predictable result has been increased car thefts, burglaries, and personal robberies. Some 120 assistant district attorneys have left the office, and there’s a backlog of 10,000 unprosecuted cases.

More than a dozen other Soros-backed and similarly liberal prosecutors have faced strong opposition or have left office.

St. Louis prosecutor Kim Gardner resigned last May amid lawsuits seeking her removal, Milwaukee’s John Chisholm retired in January, and Baltimore’s Marilyn Mosby was defeated in July 2022 and convicted of perjury in September 2023. Last November, Loudoun County, Virginia, voters (62 percent Biden) ousted liberal Buta Biberaj, who declined to prosecute a transgender student for assault, and in June 2022 voters in San Francisco (85 percent Biden) recalled famed radical Chesa Boudin.

Similarly, this Tuesday, voters in San Francisco passed ballot measures strengthening police powers and requiring treatment of drug-addicted welfare recipients.

In retrospect, it appears the Floyd video, appearing after three months of COVID-19 confinement, sparked a frenzied, even crazed reaction, especially among the highly educated and articulate. One fatal incident was seen as proof that America’s “systemic racism” was worse than ever and that police forces should be defunded and perhaps abolished.

2020 was “the year America went crazy,” I wrote in January 2021, a year in which police funding was actually cut by Democrats in New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Denver. A year in which young New York Times (NYT) staffers claimed they were endangered by the publication of Sen. Tom Cotton’s (R-Ark.) opinion article advocating calling in military forces if necessary to stop rioting, as had been done in Detroit in 1967 and Los Angeles in 1992. A craven NYT publisher even fired the editorial page editor for running the article.

Evidence of visible and tangible discontent with increasing violence and its consequences—barren and locked shelves in Manhattan chain drugstores, skyrocketing carjackings in Washington, D.C.—is as unmistakable in polls and election results as it is in daily life in large metropolitan areas. Maybe 2024 will turn out to be the year even liberal America stopped acting crazy.

Chaos and disorder work against incumbents, as they did in 1968 when Democrats saw their party’s popular vote fall from 61 percent to 43 percent.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 23:20

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Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The…

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Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) reviewed no data when deciding in 2023 to keep its COVID-19 vaccine mandate in place.

Doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in Washington in a file image. (Jacquelyn Martin/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

VA Secretary Denis McDonough said on May 1, 2023, that the end of many other federal mandates “will not impact current policies at the Department of Veterans Affairs.”

He said the mandate was remaining for VA health care personnel “to ensure the safety of veterans and our colleagues.”

Mr. McDonough did not cite any studies or other data. A VA spokesperson declined to provide any data that was reviewed when deciding not to rescind the mandate. The Epoch Times submitted a Freedom of Information Act for “all documents outlining which data was relied upon when establishing the mandate when deciding to keep the mandate in place.”

The agency searched for such data and did not find any.

The VA does not even attempt to justify its policies with science, because it can’t,” Leslie Manookian, president and founder of the Health Freedom Defense Fund, told The Epoch Times.

“The VA just trusts that the process and cost of challenging its unfounded policies is so onerous, most people are dissuaded from even trying,” she added.

The VA’s mandate remains in place to this day.

The VA’s website claims that vaccines “help protect you from getting severe illness” and “offer good protection against most COVID-19 variants,” pointing in part to observational data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that estimate the vaccines provide poor protection against symptomatic infection and transient shielding against hospitalization.

There have also been increasing concerns among outside scientists about confirmed side effects like heart inflammation—the VA hid a safety signal it detected for the inflammation—and possible side effects such as tinnitus, which shift the benefit-risk calculus.

President Joe Biden imposed a slate of COVID-19 vaccine mandates in 2021. The VA was the first federal agency to implement a mandate.

President Biden rescinded the mandates in May 2023, citing a drop in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. His administration maintains the choice to require vaccines was the right one and saved lives.

“Our administration’s vaccination requirements helped ensure the safety of workers in critical workforces including those in the healthcare and education sectors, protecting themselves and the populations they serve, and strengthening their ability to provide services without disruptions to operations,” the White House said.

Some experts said requiring vaccination meant many younger people were forced to get a vaccine despite the risks potentially outweighing the benefits, leaving fewer doses for older adults.

By mandating the vaccines to younger people and those with natural immunity from having had COVID, older people in the U.S. and other countries did not have access to them, and many people might have died because of that,” Martin Kulldorff, a professor of medicine on leave from Harvard Medical School, told The Epoch Times previously.

The VA was one of just a handful of agencies to keep its mandate in place following the removal of many federal mandates.

“At this time, the vaccine requirement will remain in effect for VA health care personnel, including VA psychologists, pharmacists, social workers, nursing assistants, physical therapists, respiratory therapists, peer specialists, medical support assistants, engineers, housekeepers, and other clinical, administrative, and infrastructure support employees,” Mr. McDonough wrote to VA employees at the time.

This also includes VA volunteers and contractors. Effectively, this means that any Veterans Health Administration (VHA) employee, volunteer, or contractor who works in VHA facilities, visits VHA facilities, or provides direct care to those we serve will still be subject to the vaccine requirement at this time,” he said. “We continue to monitor and discuss this requirement, and we will provide more information about the vaccination requirements for VA health care employees soon. As always, we will process requests for vaccination exceptions in accordance with applicable laws, regulations, and policies.”

The version of the shots cleared in the fall of 2022, and available through the fall of 2023, did not have any clinical trial data supporting them.

A new version was approved in the fall of 2023 because there were indications that the shots not only offered temporary protection but also that the level of protection was lower than what was observed during earlier stages of the pandemic.

Ms. Manookian, whose group has challenged several of the federal mandates, said that the mandate “illustrates the dangers of the administrative state and how these federal agencies have become a law unto themselves.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 22:10

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate…

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate iron levels in their blood due to a COVID-19 infection could be at greater risk of long COVID.

(Shutterstock)

A new study indicates that problems with iron levels in the bloodstream likely trigger chronic inflammation and other conditions associated with the post-COVID phenomenon. The findings, published on March 1 in Nature Immunology, could offer new ways to treat or prevent the condition.

Long COVID Patients Have Low Iron Levels

Researchers at the University of Cambridge pinpointed low iron as a potential link to long-COVID symptoms thanks to a study they initiated shortly after the start of the pandemic. They recruited people who tested positive for the virus to provide blood samples for analysis over a year, which allowed the researchers to look for post-infection changes in the blood. The researchers looked at 214 samples and found that 45 percent of patients reported symptoms of long COVID that lasted between three and 10 months.

In analyzing the blood samples, the research team noticed that people experiencing long COVID had low iron levels, contributing to anemia and low red blood cell production, just two weeks after they were diagnosed with COVID-19. This was true for patients regardless of age, sex, or the initial severity of their infection.

According to one of the study co-authors, the removal of iron from the bloodstream is a natural process and defense mechanism of the body.

But it can jeopardize a person’s recovery.

When the body has an infection, it responds by removing iron from the bloodstream. This protects us from potentially lethal bacteria that capture the iron in the bloodstream and grow rapidly. It’s an evolutionary response that redistributes iron in the body, and the blood plasma becomes an iron desert,” University of Oxford professor Hal Drakesmith said in a press release. “However, if this goes on for a long time, there is less iron for red blood cells, so oxygen is transported less efficiently affecting metabolism and energy production, and for white blood cells, which need iron to work properly. The protective mechanism ends up becoming a problem.”

The research team believes that consistently low iron levels could explain why individuals with long COVID continue to experience fatigue and difficulty exercising. As such, the researchers suggested iron supplementation to help regulate and prevent the often debilitating symptoms associated with long COVID.

It isn’t necessarily the case that individuals don’t have enough iron in their body, it’s just that it’s trapped in the wrong place,” Aimee Hanson, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Cambridge who worked on the study, said in the press release. “What we need is a way to remobilize the iron and pull it back into the bloodstream, where it becomes more useful to the red blood cells.”

The research team pointed out that iron supplementation isn’t always straightforward. Achieving the right level of iron varies from person to person. Too much iron can cause stomach issues, ranging from constipation, nausea, and abdominal pain to gastritis and gastric lesions.

1 in 5 Still Affected by Long COVID

COVID-19 has affected nearly 40 percent of Americans, with one in five of those still suffering from symptoms of long COVID, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Long COVID is marked by health issues that continue at least four weeks after an individual was initially diagnosed with COVID-19. Symptoms can last for days, weeks, months, or years and may include fatigue, cough or chest pain, headache, brain fog, depression or anxiety, digestive issues, and joint or muscle pain.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 12:50

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